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Jobs, Greeks, Silver and Groupon
News and Views in brief
Economy
The U.S. jobless rate unexpectedly fell in October while employers added the fewest workers in four months, reinforcing Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s prediction of a “frustratingly slow” recovery.
The unemployment rate dropped to a six-month low of 9 percent from 9.1 percent, even as more people entered the labor force. Payrolls rose by a less-than-forecast 80,000, following increases in the prior two months that were revised up by 102,000, Labor Department data showed yesterday in Washington.
The figures indicate the world’s largest economy will be able to weather risks such as the European debt crisis and political wrangling on cutting the U.S. budget deficit. Fed policy makers are forecasting “moderate” growth that won’t push unemployment below 8 percent until 2013, one reason why they are considering further stimulus to spur demand.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-05/u-s-employers-add-fewest-jobs-in-four-months-in-slow-recovery.html
World leaders expressed impatience and irritation with Europe’s inability to defeat its two-year financial crisis as they urged swift resolution for the sake of the global economy.
With Greece’s debt-ridden government at risk of collapsing as soon as today, Group of 20 chiefs meeting in Cannes, France, yesterday pushed European authorities to flesh out and enact a week-old rescue plan that has already shown signs of unraveling.
“We are grappling with a lack of confidence in markets that leaders will act,” Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard said in the French seaside resort. “It is therefore very important for leaders to act.”
Treasuries advanced, pushing the yield on the 10-year note down the most since August, as European leaders struggled to agree on a coordinated approach to stem the sovereign-debt crisis, stoking demand for refuge.
U.S. 30-year bond yields dropped the most on a weekly basis since September as officials at a Group of 20 meeting yesterday failed to agree on boosting the International Monetary Fund’s resources that would aid Europe. Governments await details of Europe’s week-old rescue package before they commit more cash, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said yesterday on the final day of the summit in Cannes, France. The U.S. will sell $72 billion in notes and bonds next week.
“The euro zone continues to give us an uncertain environment,” said Kevin Flanagan, a Purchase, New York-based chief fixed-income strategist for Morgan Stanley Smith Barney. “Uncertainty tends to be good for Treasuries and bad for the risk market. It will continue to be a headline driven market. Supply will be a consideration.”http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-05/treasuries-gain-most-since-august-as-europe-stalls-on-debt-crisis-plan.html
Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi requested international surveillance of his bid to cut the euro- region’s second-biggest debt, as his fraying coalition threatens Italian efforts to erect a wall against Europe’s debt crisis.
Berlusconi’s government asked the International Monetary Fund to periodically assess its debt-reduction progress, while rejecting an offer for financial assistance from the Washington- based lender, he told a press conference today at the Group of 20 summit in Cannes, France.
“It hasn’t been imposed, it was requested,” Berlusconi said. The IMF will carry out quarterly “certifications” of the euro region’s third-largest economy, he said, adding that the current sell-off of Italian debt is “a temporary trend” even as the nation’s borrowing costs surged to a new euro-era record. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-04/berlusconi-s-fraying-coalition-threatens-economic-reforms-demanded-by-g-20.html
Indexes
U.S. stocks fell, driving the market to its first weekly drop since September, as Greece’s reluctance to accept another bailout and a disagreement over boosting the International Monetary Fund’s resources threatened Europe’s efforts to halt its debt crisis.
All 10 groups in the S&P 500 fell this week as financial stocks plunged 5.4 percent. Jefferies Group Inc. (JEF) retreated 18 percent amid concern about its investments in Europe while Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) dropped more than 7.4 percent. Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) plunged 24 percent, its biggest loss in three years, after the teen-clothing retailer said sales fell at flagship stores in Europe last quarter.
The S&P 500 slid 2.5 percent to 1,253.23, the first weekly decline since the period ended Sept. 30. The benchmark equity index dropped 2.5 percent on Oct. 31, trimming the measure’s biggest monthly rally since 1991 to 11 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU)retreated 247.87 points, or 2 percent, to 11,983.24 this week.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-04/s-p-500-posts-first-retreat-since-september-amid-greece-concern.html
Groupon Inc. advanced 31 percent in its trading debut as optimism about the company’s lead in the online-coupon market outweighed concern that ballooning costs and rising competition will drag on growth.
Shares of the Chicago-based company, listed under the symbol GRPN, climbed $6.11 to $26.11 at 4 p.m. New York time in Nasdaq Stock Market trading, after surging to as high as $31.14. Groupon raised $700 million selling 35 million shares at $20 each yesterday, the biggest IPO by a U.S. Internet company since Google Inc. (GOOG) first sold shares in 2004.
As the first daily-deal site to go public, Groupon offers a toehold in a market predicted by BIA/Kelsey to surge almost fivefold to $4.2 billion in 2015 from last year. Expectations for gains allayed concerns over Groupon’s lack of profitability and accelerating rivalry from Google and LivingSocial.
Currencies
The euro tumbled the most in two months versus the dollar as Greek political wrangling threatened to unravel a plan to stem Europe’s debt crisis and global leaders balked at writing new checks to bail out the region.
The 17-nation currency touched a three-week low versus the greenback as Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou called for, and then called off, a referendum on a bailout needed to prevent a default. The dollar rose against all of its 16 most-traded peers as investors sought safety and Japan moved to stop the yen’s advance. U.S. consumer confidence improved, data next week may show.
“Greece remains the focus,” said Andrew Cox, a currency strategist at Citigroup Inc. in New York. “The event that rocked the markets pretty hard was news that Papandreou was calling the confidence vote and referendum. It hit an already fragile market and was the defining event of the week.” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-05/euro-falls-most-in-two-months-on-crisis-dollar-gains-as-haven.html
Canada’s dollar had its first weekly drop since September against its U.S. counterpart as concern European leaders are struggling to contain Greek turmoil crimped demand for riskier assets such as stocks and commodities.
The currency fell versus most of its 16 major counterparts tracked by Bloomberg in the first days of November as a report showed Canada’s jobless rate unexpectedly climbed last month. Yields on 10-year government bonds fell the most since the depths of the financial crisis almost three years ago. Canada will sell two-year bonds next week.
“The commodity currencies have come under pressure on the lack of market confidence in this Greek situation,” said Blake Jespersen, director of foreign exchange at Bank of Montreal in Toronto, in a telephone interview. “Lots of investors took money off the table as soon as the political rumblings out of Greece erupted this week. The money hasn’t come back. The jobs number added to the downward momentum in the Canadian dollar.”http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-05/canadian-dollar-falls-for-first-time-since-september-on-turmoil-in-europe.html
Commodities
A multiyear investigation into the possibility of unlawful acts in the silver market is continuing after regulators analyzed more than 100,000 documents, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said.
“In September of 2008, the commission announced the existence of an enforcement investigation into the possibility of unlawful acts in silver markets,” the CFTC said today in a statement on its website. “Since that time, the staff has analyzed over 100,000 documents and interviewed dozens of witnesses and obtained expert advice. It has been a long, detailed and thorough investigation, and it continues in an appropriate and considered manner.”
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and HSBC Holdings PLC (HSBA) were sued in October 2010 by investors, including Peter Laskaris, who alleged that starting in March 2008, the banks manipulated silver in futures and options, partly by placing so-called spoof trading orders.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-04/cftc-says-silver-market-probe-continues-after-100-000-documents-analyzed.html
Gold traders are the most bullish in three weeks after hedge funds boosted their wagers on higher prices amid speculation Europe’s debt crisis and slow U.S. growth will spur demand for the metal as a protection of wealth.
Twenty-eight of 32 people surveyed by Bloomberg expect bullion to rise on the Comex in New York next week, the most since Oct. 14 and the second increase in a row. Money managers boosted their combined net-long position in New York gold by 8.7 percent in the week to Oct. 25, U.S. government data show. Traders expect lower copper and raw-sugar prices next week, and gains in corn and soybeans, separate surveys showed.
Gold climbed above $1,760 an ounce this week for the first time in six weeks and investors increased their holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products to a two-month high. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled more monetary stimulus may be needed to cut unemployment, while the European Central Bank yesterday unexpectedly lowered interest rates. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-04/gold-traders-more-bullish-as-debt-crisis-u-s-economy-spur-bets-on-gains.html
Pivotfarm Data Sheet & Journals
Data sheets describing major market metrics, news and a journaling area for trading records in the centre of the pdf.
eurusd | gbpusd | usdjpy | s&p500 | nasdaq | dow jones | gold| crude oil
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I might not be surveyed by bloomberg, but I also expect silver to rise!
One big ConGame theater.
But, it's the only show on TV.
The Bernank needs to fire up the printers and print our way out of this Downward Debt Death Deflationary Spiral.
I think?
I find it laughable that the fiat whores discount any manipulation in the PM market. The CB's tell us they are manipulating, errrrr, fixing or pegging interest rates and currencies. Yet, for some reason, the price discovery for PM's is somehow free. Uh, o.k.
My take on this is that those of us who hold physical are already fine with our holdings and simply waiting until margin requirements for all the paper trusts or brokers goes to 100%. Only at that point will all manipulators be out of bullets and things get ugly. Quitely picking up a bit more pyhsical with every dip. The more that mainstream media pushes the idea that silver and gold are relics that will never be used as currency again, the more people should be concerned. People use them all the time around the world and for 2,000 years only one policy has ever remained true - "He who has the gold, makes the rules"
Paper is only as good as the CONfidence people have in it, same as it ever was.
Good luck suing the government. Tried and lost. Only good defense attorney is a dead one.
"Only good attorney is a dead one." - fixed it for you.
No wonder the ESFwhatever can't sell bonds. US Treas is soaking up/ stealing demand. Another unintended consequence BEN?
That's an interesting thought. Clearly Italy is done. Once the Berlusconi bs comes out...well let's just say "ain't no mountain high enough" as the song goes for that guy. "open season on the media" does it get any better? Anywho "thanks for plagiarizing" pivot farm. One day you'll discover the idea of original thinking yourself! In the meantime be a meaningless scribe like all the rest...