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Losing Graciously
There's a very well-known publisher of market commentary which - like me - has been largely bearish over the past two and a half years. What is irksome to me is that, in the face of a market which has done little but push higher all this time, they keep pointing to a chart showing that in "real dollars" (in their view, gold) the market has indeed been crashing.
Ummm, that's stupid. Gold is an asset, but it isn't used as money in our society. Do you buy groceries with it? Pay your mortgage with it? Pay school tuition with it? I didn't think so.
I could make ANY prediction about ANY market and be correct if you allowed me to choose some kind of "currency" as a benchmark. Over any span of time, you can find something which has gone either up or down in value to support your claim, if that's what you're allowed to use as your divisor.
Let's try this. I've been bearish on the market, as you know. Let's say that the shares of Apple, Inc. are the most meaningful form of "real money." How have I done? Looking at the chart below, I'd say I've been spot-on.
I realize there's a difference between Apple and gold, but not much. 99.9% of our transactions are done within the borders of the United States, using U.S. currency, so the nominal value of the stock market, measured in dollars, is the most accurate judge of how predictions have panned out. I've been, by and large, bearish. I've been wrong. I'm not going to completely lame-out on you and divide the stock market by the value of gold, for God's sake.
I lean bearish. It's my personality. To some, I looked like a genius in 2008 and early 2009. I wasn't. To some, I look like an idiot for my bearishness recently. I'm not. I'm neither an idiot nor a genius. I'm a very good chartist, and I've offered plenty of great trading ideas (and plenty of not-so-great ones), and my bearishness has been wrong for longer than I care to remember.
But at least I am man enough to say that without gimmicks. Sheesh.
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where do you see the EUR/USD trade at the end of the year 2012?
and Gold?
I agree on the fact that the crisis is looking like its over on paper value, which is what the economy relates to.
Not sure why this is tagged as "Apple" - - it's not pertinent -- and I know on a place like ZH, bringing up anything to do with gold is probably more dangerous than a discussion of religion and politics at the same time. All the same...........just had to get this off my chest.
gold has been real money since long before you were born Tim, and it will be real money long after you are gone.
in the meantime all the stupid temporary laws in the world, made by stupid temporary countries (USA) will not change that.
youre just sore that this other commentator is better read and more successful than you.
deal with it.
why are your here tim
If we want to view your BS we can go to SlobofH...
How have your funds worked out?
Just answer that with measurable specifics and I will leave.
is your ego that insatiable that you have to pollute this oasis of truth with your postdated BS? (and drag some of your progeny along with you)
I read both SOH and ZH often and the dichotomy in the tone of comments is fascinating. Where SOH is like a fencing match, ZH, true to it's meme, is a brass knuckles bar room brawl. I truly appreciate both.
SOH?
OK. TINY TIM. I GOT IT, SLIPPERY.
Are you seriously that retarded. Apparently so, you dumb fuck!!
I often wonder if there are those at ZH pimping Gold as a means of talking one's own book. Likewise, when I see someone throw out the premise "you can't eat gold" it sounds like someone looking to buy.
What the hell do I know? I'm sure not everyone has an ulterior motive.
Alas, when I consider (for myself, with my own brain as feeble as it may be) precious metals seem like the only reasonable means to retain wealth considering central bank activity and market volatility.
A pro might be able to beat this farcical market, but since the market is denominated in fiat.....
AAPL can't feed the masses.
But then again; What the hell
Do your own due dilligence.
I only recommend people buy as much as they are comfortable, and as much as their understanding allows.
But I will say this: If you don't own at least 5% of your entire net worth in gold, you are one monumentally dumb fuck and are going to seriously regret it.
I'm all in (except for the food, fuel, medicine, tools, guns, ammo, porn, books and video games).
I never understand how one can make such a blanced argument, and then throw out the most basic rule: never put all your eggs in one basket!
Ergo, never more than 50% in physical gold!!
It's only dangerous to bring up gold if you're monumentally, unbelievably, narrow-mindedly, staggeringly stupid about it, e.g.:
No, you can't pay for those things in gold. But you can save in gold, and easily convert it into dollars (which incidentally, is also a mere "asset", much like euro or yen or real estate or anything else of value) and pay those things with it (in fact, you can convert it into whatever currency of whatever country you happen to care to do so). ...And if you find the right counter-party, they will gladly take it instead of fiat.
Seriously... Wake the fuck up, man. You're reminding me of Denniger.
Tim does not know "Asset Classes" as he is shorting and has not any. If he would have bought Gold years ago, he could buy more in fiat or drive more often to Mexico. Instead he shorted the market in past 2 1/2 years on a daily basis and his fiat disappeared.
Well, for what it's worth, when Jesus and Allah were roommates debating whether to vote Democrat or Republican, they themselves couldn't decide on whether to settle their bets in Euros or Gold.
And that's when the religious wars really started.
Jews, Muslims, and Christians all pray to the same God, the God of Abraham.
Jews, Muslims, and Christians all pray to the same God, the God of Abraham.
I am buddhist, but even I know that is not true.
Muslims believe there is one god, christians believe god is a trinity. Jews pray towards Jeruselem, muslims pray away from it. Muslims deny christ's divinity and impose a death penalty for converstion to christianity or judaism. Muslims claim jews and christians corrupted the bible and that it is not correct. On and on.
To me it looks more like islam plagerized christianity and judaism and tried to claim it as its own. A party crasher,, if you will.
Allah is a very different god than the rest: He recreates the world continously and might at any instance decide not to. God, Buddha, Jahve and whatnot created the world once and sort of left it running without requiring constant prayers and shows of affection to keep it running.
Jews, Muslims, and Christians and in my mind any religion, They all believe in science fiction and thats why were fucked. Belief in fiat as money, and thats why were fucked. Reality is the one belief no one believes in. And thats why were fucked.