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Market Collapse around the corner? Remember 2008?
If History is to repeat, we got the perfect short term bottom placed yesterday. In this move up, shorts will be losing faith in their positions, and cover furiously. The last leg up should take place over the coming days/ weeks, before we get the total breakdown of the “system”. Probable scenario or not, you decide, but the charts sure resemble 2008. Full Chartolgy here.
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I know it's tempting to look at those graphs and believe we're in for a repeat of 2008 and I also know a lot of people believe human beings and economies are a part of reliable cycles that are predictable, but I also believe many an investor has been bankrupted by predicting what a graph will look like next week. Go ahead and place your bets against the plunge protection team and we'll see how it works out.
Sold my gold miners this morning, made almost all of the losses of yesterday back. In cash and waiting.
This rally already looks like it exhausted itself. Sans government liquidity intervention, it will keep going down because.. because bankers need a paycheque too!
No POMO on deck Thursday. We shall see.
there's a rather large block of put options on the DIA at 108 and 106. If its a spread there is really no way to tell if its bearish or bullish. A two point spread on the strike ain't much, so someone has a clear idea that the DIA is definitely going either lower than 10600, or higher than 10800, and I would say there's a lot of conviction there. Have no view of the futures? What does anyone see, this is where Bernanke and the plumbers do their best work by the way, expiration of the DIA is Tue?
I like this market - it's so predictable.
We'll have an inny and then an outy and then a downy and then an uppy.
Then the orgasmic oscilator will vibrate..................
I wonder how Madhedgefundtraders Macro tent dwellers who dumped their gold did today?
I backed my gold freight train up this week and last. You?
If you stick your nose out - you can smell the cooked hedgies and fricaseed leveraged gold trader fried on the banker barbecue.
Don't be afraid though = What's the word of the day?
Take your profits when half of ZH gold and silver pumpers are posting articles every 5 seconds.
Notice the complete disappearance of them right now? They were buying your pain and selling you their stash during the pump.
They'll fleece you again if you don't learn.
Sorry but that is the truth.
First of all you're comparing two different time frames, but that's not it. The hopium crowd always looks at a market top, and then tries to apply the rules for a market bottom. Volatility is not consistent with market bottoms. Then look at the chart on the wide screen. Does this look like some sort of bottom?
For contemporary chartists everyone is familiar with the V shaped bottom. That's orthodox, although its not text book. Bottoms usually take some time. (look at the 2003 bottom for instance) and you usually get some divergences at the bottom. Everything here is classic topping action, big problem is that for ten years the technical market has made its mark on busted bearish indicators. This is a market which has someones thumb on the scale.
In the abscence of QE and POMO there is not much ammo to carry this market. The bears aren't fools, they wait for the bulls to exhaust their buying reserves, and then move back in. In a sense that late day rally almost seems to fit that psychological pattern. Lured into a bear trap, they have one or two days of buying before the bears put the hurt back on. Unless of course Bernanke comes in, when is options expiration? ah ha little ducklings, we could go higher.
Collapse, collapse, collapse. Meanwhile, we're still alive.
.
Back when I was doing economics at Harvard we learned that if all other stragies failed to save an economy you could instead cover your ears and shout loudly.
Ben is now close to the cover the ears and shouting loudly stage.
Of course, we are in an endgame. The carrot tied to the end of the stick will be chased until the investing public discovers that it's a turd in a fiat paper bag. Nothing has changed since the last quarter of 2007. People are still giving up real things for worthless paper. The paper fantasy world may be the only sandbox left to play in.
http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/07/04/photo-finish/
I don't know WTF is going to happen. And I'm well prepared for that.
Weeeee....................................
This roller coaster is fun. Let's do it again.
Around the corner? Mark your calendars:
12 days until Black Monday II
Jesus it looks like compressed mirroring.
Kura Death Trap Drop.
Oh and that projected downward arrow? Extend it down to 850 range please.
The general consensus seems to be that this market mess will rally to about 1250 now. Therefore the probability that it will tank to 1000 or even 950 before the 20th of this month is probably 80-90%.
Pretty much as I see it. Rally for now and get out of the way ...
Nikkei futures were fun yesterday. Between 3 pm and a little after 4 pm, it jumped about 2.5%, and then dropped about 2.2%. CME should lower the margin requirements on that sucker, because clearly the volatility is contained.
The game as we know it has been over. What we're seeing now are the likes of Warren Buffet and the other financial janitors of the world fighting over who sweeps up the piles of what's left with their brooms.
The game as we know it has been over. What we're seeing now are the likes of Warren Buffet and the other financial janitors of the world fighting over who sweeps up the piles of what's left with their brooms.
The only stock index arround the world that is not clearly in bear market territory...
Don't normally agree with this author either but this is pattern trading at it's best. The prelude to the collapse is in fact a furious short covering rally followed by the crestfallen.
I was thinking the same... and the likelhood of it... I got burned BIG time yesterday on my spy short, but not selling at all
Maybe, but you've definitely drawn your '08 circle in the wrong place. This bounce should take us past 1240.
Bounce to 1,240 on what catalyst? You might as well say 1,500 or 2,000.
Why is a catalyst necessary?
Since the entire article's point is some sort of symmetry or fractal, in 2008 the bounce here eclipsed the initial "dead cat" bounce highs and retested the 200 day.
Today's DCB highs are about 1230. The 200 day is around 1275. A logical target would be somewhere between those two numbers depending on how long it takes.
sorry, those SPY options expire this week.
Agree that the mkt is vulnerable. We could easily have broken by the same amount yesterday afternoon. At the end of the day, I can only 'go with' whatever is there and I appreciate that the mkt does not give a shit what I think or do, or how big or little I do it.
Funny yesterday morning, SPY options $3 out of the money were trading a $1. Evidently there is still some respect that this thing can continue to slash around. Can't see how you cannot be protected a little on the downside since once it kicks off there may be very little to do about it and extremely shitty liquidity.
I'm so damn tired of waiting. Can't this epic fail just happen already?
The SHTF moment might never come; we might never "get the call." All this oligarchical theft/nationalization could continue until the State owns absolutely everything and there are no true nations left to resist. I call this the Soviet/Braziliafication/GlobalGulag model.
Are you RM from IMI?
That model would be appropriate. The objective of Commerce is always conquest. Slavery has always been the preferred business model of the central banks. We are watching the corporate consolidation of the world into one, big internment camp. The fastest growing industry in the U. S. is the prison system. When government discovered that all it had to do was sentence everyone to mandatory community service, the game was over. The Marxist doctrine of collective guilt and responsibility is in operation. We are seeing the nationalization of all private property.
http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/06/26/land-wealth-vs-debt-pro...
Most excellent link George, Thanks.
A climax selloff was still on the table as of 3 PM yesterday. Might not get it now, at least not near-term.
Nope, the market has to suck in every last possible person first. Always takes time. Old timers from the 30's described it as follows. Public lost their money in 29 and early 30. The smart guys in 31, and the really, really smart guys lost it all in 32.
This is the truth. The market will continue until all the fuel is burnt up. Until all traders, including shorts, are destroyed. So if you are trading please place bigger, riskier bets so we can get this over with.
There is a certain amount of comedy in this insanity.
We are living in a Kurt Vonnegut novel.
Everyone feels that way...but it will be worth the wait.
Short rope, long cartridges.
Long gold/silver, short SPX.
physical sliver.
Last two weeks, my local coin shop ( I usually stop by every week or so and buy couple of Franklin's worth) -- No Silver (nickles, mixed dimes, bars, etc., some proofs (meh).
No retail platinum in Japan. They will still quote you a price, but have none for delivery.
The PRICE IS WRONG, Bitchez!
Does anyone else have the right third of these (and all) charts covered up by those banners going down the right side of the webpage?
Scroll past, click on "Printer Friendly" - voila!
Yer welcome.
@Nobody For President. Thanks
Good one. Thanks
Ditto. But at least my monitor is large enough I can see them if I make my browser full-screen, which I don't like to do.
Yes. It drives me nuts when I can't click thru and see the whole thing.
The markets will eventually work out that Central Bankers (in their role as the emperor with no clothes) are spinning a line every time the market drops.
You can only reveal a rescue package with NO substance so many times before your credibility is shot and that is what this final leg up on the far left side of the chart is about - form over substance.
The emperor has no clothes and his blushes are about to be seen
Current markets are not capable of independent thought.