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Microsoft is in Secular Decline

South of Wall Street's picture





 

Today, we get yet another piece of evidence that Google is going for Microsoft's jugular.  Last week it was Pittsburgh choosing Google Apps for the 25% cost savings over Microsoft, today it is BBVA signing Google's biggest Enterprise deal to date.

From Bloomberg

Google, grappling with slowing growth from its traditional online advertising business, is stepping up competition with Microsoft by selling business software as an alternative to Office programs. Google’s programs are accessed through the Web, just as its search engine is. Spanish companies such as BBVA, based in the northern city of Bilbao, need to cut costs and improve productivity amid a weakening economy with the highest unemployment rate in the European Union.

Customers at average often save about 50 to 70 percent compared to their previous software solutions..

These employees will be working off of Chromebooks.  So, despite all the noise around Ultrabooks this week at CES... Intel is not going to reinvent itself to compete with Apple or Google.  Its pretty straightforward Macs and Chromebooks are going to be the future.

From my previous post:

Let’s start with Microsoft (Missed Search Fone Tablet).  I could actually end it there, but I’ll go on.

I do not believe a company that has missed every major trend in technology over the last five years is going to magically turn it around with Windows Mobile/Nokia.  They have a cash cow (Windows) and over 50% of their revenue recurring with little competition.  There hasn’t been a credible alternative for large IT departments up until now.  I listen to all the valuation arguments on MSFT, and I get it.  But where do they fit into the picture 5 years from now?  Given the rapid nature of change in IT – I think it’s dramatically different than today.

 


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Wed, 01/11/2012 - 12:28 | Link to Comment akuacumen
akuacumen's picture

MSFT may have stagnated in recent years. However, their core business is still good. Windows 7 is great. MS Office remains the standard and works wonderfully. They make more money from Android that Google does. I don't think Microsoft is going away any time soon. People may have "switched" to tablets, which is fad du jour but you can't get any work done on them at the end of the day.

Linus etc. Improved, yes. Usable, no. Lack high quality commerical software and ease of use. Not everyone has the time to mess about. Time is not free either.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 12:14 | Link to Comment SubjectivObject
SubjectivObject's picture

"Windows 7 is great." 

Have you ever searched for a file through Win 7?

(for those who understand the issue, Ooogle "locate32" or "locate64", as your case may be)

It's back to XP for me, for as long as I can get away with it.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 10:10 | Link to Comment fledermaus
fledermaus's picture

What is truly RIDICULOUS is SOPA and CLOUD computing.  Can you imagine CLOUD computing after SOPA's internet kill switch?  "Um, Hey  I can't access ANY of my documents?"  "Hey- who is in charge to get the cloud/internet turned back on?" "I need to do invoices?"  Then you march down to the Government office & take a number to file your complaint via triplicate... The Puce copy is yours...

45 minutes later the jack booted IRS/ ATF show up at your door- "We have looked into your invoices... and you are a terrorist sypathizer as you are not paying estimated taxes (tribute) correctly based on Governtment review of your invoices, after you incorrectly "complained..."

"THEREFORE, comrad, You now can join the rest of your family at our FEMA 'retirement' encampment..."

Enjoy Your future! Cloud participants With SOPA sprinkled in and our government encroachment with no due process necessary...

-Please people be active and vigalent this stuff lately is NUTZ.-

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 10:06 | Link to Comment AchtungAffen
AchtungAffen's picture

The bad thing about this is that the alternative to Microsoft is cloud only software. It's like jumping from the pan to the fire...

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 15:36 | Link to Comment l.hauri
l.hauri's picture

I know what you mean, but this is the future for cloud storage

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 10:39 | Link to Comment SirPlayomic
SirPlayomic's picture

Not so. Ubuntu with Libre Office works great. I've been using Ubuntu at home and in the office for over a year with minimal problems.

Ubuntu.com

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 10:00 | Link to Comment ffart
ffart's picture

Microsoft has become a horrible, buerocratic monstrosity and the top executives are all cheerleading yes-men and everything they do internally has the taint of HR and lawyers about it. I doubt Google or Apple would be much different, but Microsoft has become so enamored with Windows that they can't seem to gather any momentum to reorganize themselves in a meaningful way. It's possible they will reinvent themselves, however I don't see it happening until most of the company has been flushed down the toilet and they are staring at bankruptcy proceedings.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 09:50 | Link to Comment Commander Cody
Commander Cody's picture

Cloud computing is Big Brother inside your business.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 10:15 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

You are correct.  And...you give up your right to privacy for anything in the cloud because it is not stored on your machine.

Numerous legal cases where individual rights were virtually non-existent; true for your stuff on a work computer too.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 09:46 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

 

"Microsoft is in Secular Decline"

Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of garbage-software peddling monopolist crooks

Gates & Bulmer should be jailed for the insufferable crap they've sold across the world for decades

Microshite are living proof consumer Laws and regulators don't protect anyone except the big dirty monopolists

 

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 10:01 | Link to Comment midtowng
midtowng's picture

Microsoft hasn't made a significant improvement since Windows XP.

Yes, Windows 7 is a HUGE improvement over Windows Vista, but Windows 7 is just Windows Vista that required eight years of development to get right.

Right now I'm using Ubuntu. Linux products are improving MUCH faster than Microsoft is.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 10:48 | Link to Comment Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

>Microsoft hasn't made a significant improvement since Windows XP.

I can pull out a hard disk with Windows 7 and shove it in a new box, and everything works fine.

With Linux it's editing config files for days to get hardware semi-working. Good luck trying to print a document.

 

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 10:06 | Link to Comment morph
morph's picture

Well improving is a relative term :-) It's EASY to improve when you are so poor to begin with. Linux based OS's are generally horrible for desktop environments thanks largely to their design by committe nature. 

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 09:41 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

The younger generations are going to mobile devices.

The speed of the transition is astounding, if you think about it.

Point and shoot cameras are going away because most phones are to the point where the camera is good enough to make prints (if they ever do).

iPads everywhere for Christmas this year.

Desktops going the way of the Dodo.

Applications all going to the cloud.

The trend is easy to see.  The "sweet spot" demographic of 15-35 is going mobile, unplugged, and small.

I don't because I can't see whet I'm doing on a 2 inch screen and no keyboard, but the largest demographic for adopting and purchasing technology likes it.

Yes, they are watching Harry Potter movies on their iPhone as they are on a drive.

For Microsoft to stay apace they need to adapt.  They are moving the Office suite online to the cloud, and are moving "Live" and XBOX 360 data to the cloud. 

I wouldn't count Microsoft out, as they have the cash to buy competitors on the cutting edge (which is how Microsoft came to be Microsoft to begin with).

XBOX 360 is THE gaming console for gamers, and there is still a large cadre of PC gamers and system builders who go PC and Windows.

Business and Government are still using Word, Excel, Access, PowerPoint and desktop PC's running Windows.

If Microsoft makes the transition to facilitating mobile device and pad devices in Windows 8 and moving applications and licensing to the cloud they will do fine.

The dichotomy occurring now is one of communicating and socializing versus work.  Yes, work wants you to be available on your cell, but they want you doing the spreadsheet on the desktop.

I would look at the drop in Microsoft earnings and PC sales as not just a trend but an indicator of how bad the economy SUCKS.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 10:08 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Not sure about desktops. Ultimately, a PC is the best thing to hook up to your TV these days. On demand movies and shows for free, with complete internet access and browsing, plus gaming. If Microsoft builds the next xbox to do all those things (PC apps compatible with keyboard mouse, gaming, streaming video/music, and web browsing) and open enough to do them, that'll be the winner for the home entertainment center.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 10:17 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Yes, that would be a winner.  Home entertainment center that combines Internet, TV, Gaming, Social Media - BANG!

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 09:24 | Link to Comment jobless_recover...
jobless_recoveriless_BS's picture

I am surprised to see people who thinks that using Microsoft products is much safer as opposed to Google (or other cloud products). First of all, Microsoft is moving Office to the cloud too. They know that the status quo will not last long. Second, Microsoft products are the worst in terms on cyber security. As Richard Clarke points out in his Cyber War book, "Microsoft has vast resources, literally billions of dollars in cash, or liquid assets reserves. Microsoft is an incredibly successful empire built on the premise of market dominance with low-quality goods."

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 09:41 | Link to Comment agent default
agent default's picture

Just wait for  a major internet outage that will lock people and businesses out of their data, or some sort of serious rouge employee incident involving theft of documents, and you will realize the implications of this cloud computing nonsense.  Not to mention CONgress passing some law down the line that treats cloud data as an open record, granting unlimited powers to the government agencies over them.  Then you will realize the monstrous implications of this cloud computing concept.  The people who trust these services for anything other than storing their goat pics are beyond naive and stupid.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 10:22 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

I agree with you, but most people are stupid.

Look at how much money cable T.V. made; starting out as "commercial free" then transitioning to 157 channels of CRAP that had commercials.

Industry desperately wants to get everyone on the cloud so they can follow the subscription model, little leeches attached to you, charging $12 a month for everything and anything.

You watch, before long you will be paying .01 cents per search; and Google and everyone else will have us coming and going (once we are all addicted to it and phone books and printed material is no longer available).

Remember when a search actually got you results instead of Ads that someone payed Google to put first?  Yeah, like that.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 09:07 | Link to Comment HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Walk into any Staples or any office store and you can see the decline as it happens before your eyes.

 

At some point Microsoft will be retired because it costs money to use. Everything else would be sourced in the open for free.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 09:19 | Link to Comment alexwest
alexwest's picture

who gives a #uck about what is going in Staples??
I use hard facts.. its called income statement/ balance sheet..

look at
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=MSFT+Income+Statement&annual

no much secular decline in revenues/income.. quite contrary..

yes.. stock didnt move much for last 10 years cause stupid sheeps paid ridiculous P/E at height of internet bubble, but cose business is fine

alx

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 09:06 | Link to Comment SDS Trader
SDS Trader's picture

I hate to tell you this, but your link to a Chromebook with "no Intel inside" (your words) links to a Chromebook using an Intel Atom processor...

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 09:19 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

He probably meant "Microsoft".

Intel used to be synonymous with Microsoft, but not since Apple went to Intel for their processor, and AMD went mainstream.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 08:55 | Link to Comment YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

I don't know any companies that use alternatives to MS Office. Do you? I have OpenOffice for linux that I hardly ever use because it is (for now) a poor alternative if you want to do more than write letters. Excel and Access are de facto industry standard for office work. As for programs that can only be accessed by the web, would you trust your company's sensitive data to an online program? I've never heard of anything so stupid, and I guess stupid people are the ones Google is targeting.

Google, Youtube, and Facebook are part of the cyber intelligence Echelon network, and when their analytic and espionage activities are revealed, they will be finished overnight. We used to have hackers in the early days who caught them at it and published their concerns, but I haven't seen much of it lately. Probably spend too much time with Google!

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 08:30 | Link to Comment jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

i don't care or know anything about this controversy but the post seems to have some straws in the winds (here's another i "googled" http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Messaging-and-Collaboration/UC-Berkeley-Explain...).  the comments so far seem more denial, name calling and noting microsoft's admitted market penetration at present, not what the future holds, the subject of the post.  again -- i don't know or care, just commenting.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 08:05 | Link to Comment thegreatsatan
thegreatsatan's picture

3 years on and this is what passed for "analysis" here? Sad. I'd say the only thing in decline is your ability to comprehend technology.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 07:58 | Link to Comment Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

So Apple invented the IPad(Tablet)

Microsoft invented this .. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zxk_WywMTzc uh em errrr .... the MsTABLE!!! WTF

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 09:02 | Link to Comment YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

Apple did not even come up with the name, "IPad". It was registered by a Taiwanese company called Proview in 2000 which flirted with the idea of tablet PCs (There were quite a few tablets before Apple claimed to have "invented" the idea). 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/8945828/Apple-may-have-to-change-iPads-name-in-China.html

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 07:55 | Link to Comment alexwest
alexwest's picture

another idiot..
hey stupid, how much google software do you use home/office each day (excl web search)? nada..

its same shit w/ lunux..

case closed
alx

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 21:45 | Link to Comment YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

i thought he was talking about 5 years from now.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 10:10 | Link to Comment morph
morph's picture

Yeah and I bet they will still use Office/PowerPoint for polishing off documents anyway. This just means they are moving away from exchange and other such systems.

 

Google apps is no way a replacement for Word/PowerPoint. For complex documents word is a great tool.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 10:07 | Link to Comment midtowng
midtowng's picture

I don't use Google software, but I've switched to using Ubuntu primarily now. I only switch back to Windows when I need to use Office.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 10:27 | Link to Comment SirPlayomic
SirPlayomic's picture

I guess that is not often as Ubuntu's Libre Office is a great alternative to MS Office.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 08:45 | Link to Comment weinerdog43
weinerdog43's picture

And how much Kodak film do you use? 

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 09:35 | Link to Comment antidisestablis...
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