This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Minyanville Interviews Lee Adler: What to Expect in 2012?
Recently I was in New York and met with the staff of Minyanville at their offices. They invited me to sit for a video giving my opinions for 2012. Here’s the video and transcript of the interview. My thanks to Todd Harrison and all the Minyanville staffers for their hospitality! ~ Lee
Minyanville Interview With Lee Adler: What to Expect From Treasuries, Central Banks, Politics in 2012
By Michael Sedacca at Minyanville
Courtesy Minyanville and Lee Adler of the Wall Street Examiner
Lee Adler is the editor and publisher of the Wall Street Examiner and the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition, a proprietary service for professional investors and sophisticated individual investors. A frequent contributor to Minyanville, he recently sat down with us to discuss his views on the treasury market for 2012, the election and the role of central banks on the market.
His thoughts on yields? “The technicals always come first,” he said, “but I think that the conditions are right now for the beginnings of a turn.”
TRANSCRIPT:
What’s the big story for 2012?
I think that finally this’ll be the year that Treasury yields begin to rise. A lot of people, a lot of smart people have been bears on Treasuries and have been wrong about it. The technical work that I do has said that they will continue to go lower, but things are beginning to change here and the last few weeks we’ve seen the 2% area get kind of sticky and I think this is a base for return. So I think people will be surprised by the end of next year how much higher yields are going to be.
Would you be bearish on yields?
I would be bearish in yields, but there are certain technical levels that I would want to keep an eye on. Always. I mean, in terms of forecasting and trading is two different things. And as a trading advisor, I always want to keep in mind the key technical levels such as, for example, 210 right now. If we get above 210, we’re going to ratchet up to the next level and so on. And, on the down side, there are levels that are equally important, like 190. If we break 190, then we probably are going to go down and retest the low and possibly take a new low.
So the technicals always come first, but I think that the conditions are right now for the beginnings of a turn. So we’ll keep an eye on the key technical levels as we go forward, week to week.
How will the elections affect the market?
I think that Romney can beat Obama. The question is, will the Republicans nominate Gingrich or Romney or some other third person that we don’t know about yet. I’m not a political analyst, so obviously I don’t know how it’s going to turn out. I know people are very unhappy with the current administration. But I think that Gingrich has some real weaknesses. He’s essentially a moral pygmy and the Right, there are people on the Right that won’t vote for him. And that’ll be a liability for him, because the Republicans obviously need to keep the Right solid and they need to carry the middle, too. And the only candidate that can do that for them would be Romney. So, if Gingrich is the nominee, I think that Obama will have a chance to sneak in again.
I think it’s important from the standpoint of the—mostly from the standpoint of the Supreme Court, because we have a Supreme Court now that has said that corporations are people and money is speech. And if there’s another Republican administration, that conservative majority on the Supreme Court will be further enhanced for possibly another generation, so there’ll be little hope of any change in that attitude of corporations being people and money being speech. So, as long as that’s the case, we’re going to have a political economy that is controlled by the corporate interests.
What is everyone else missing in the markets?
I don’t know that everyone is missing any one particular thing. I mean, there is such an information flow today. Sites like yours, like Minyanville, and like mine, the Wall Street Examiner, bring up issues 24 hours a day that, at one time when the media was controlled strictly by the Wall Street Journal and CNBC, a lot of these issues would not have come to the fore.
But today there are so many alternative media sites and bloggers like myself and others who are bringing up these issues 24 hours a day, there’s really no excuse for people to be surprised. The one thing we always have to be aware of, obviously, is that these markets are manipulated by the central banks and, if you’re not trading 24 hours a day, you’re liable to wake up in the morning and have your positions wiped out because of a European Central Bank action or a surprise action by the Fed at 7:30 in the morning.
So, I think that people need to be more aware of the fact that central banks use the equities market as an instrument of policy and those of us who are trading from the short side are their cannon fodder. So it’s necessary to be aware of that and, if you can’t stay up 24 hours a day and trade the futures on a 24-hour basis, which none of us can, you need to have a partner in Europe and Asia to help you with those instances. And, either that, or you don’t leave any positions open overnight.
How will Europe play out?
I think we’ll see more of the same. Ad hoc crisis response. Obviously, I have no clue how it’s going to turn out. The policy makers don’t know what they’re doing. They are reacting out of fear and panic most of the time. So there’s, from my perspective, I can’t predict how it’s going to turn out. But I think there will be more chaos, more ad hoc crisis management. Clearly, a lot of people who are a lot smarter about the issue know that Greece is going to default and the question is which domino falls next and is there some way to prevent that? I don’t know, but I would say this, until we face the music and take the losses, take the haircuts, recognize that what’s gone is gone and stop trying to prop up a system that’s hollowed out, we will just go from crisis to crisis to crisis.
Random thought?
In all honesty, I would hope that, my wish would be that the politicians and those on the Right and the Left can come together a little bit more in the center so that we can solve some of these terrible issues that we’re facing. If that doesn’t happen, we face a very bleak future. That’s my happy thought for next year.
Originally published at Minyanville.
I just want to express my apologies to the Pygmy people for my insensitive comment likening them to Newt. They may be short, but I assume that their morals are beyond reproach, unlike Newt. I should have called him a moral “cretin” instead of insulting an entire race of people.
Get regular updates on the US housing market, and stay up to date with the machinations of the Fed, Treasury, Primary Dealers and foreign central banks in the US market…stay ahead of the herd. Click this link to try WSE’s Professional Edition risk free for 30 days!
»
- ilene's blog
- 8394 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Thanks for the help in wasting 5 minutes of my life...
he's another socialist wanker
we face a very bleak future. That’s my [happy] thought for next year."
wtf 6 mins of worthless crap
This guy has said absolutely nothing.
That's right. He said nothing. Next week he'll say twice as much.
A fatal flaw is that he appears to believe that politics is something more than a distraction for voters so the oppression of the government/corporate kleptoligarchy can continue unabated.
Mr. Adler's pontifications about the political future are worhtless.
First, I doubt seriously that either Romney (Mormon, Wall St. Tycoon, Corporate raider, off-shoring titan, flip-flopper, zero "common touch"), or Gingrich (the list is too long to bother), can beat Obummer. Just put your biases in your pocket and look at the polls and approval ratings right now, even before either of these 2 wannabes start getting slugged by the Dems. RP is probably the only one with a chance, simply due to integrity, consistency of message, and that he is the REAL AGENT OF CHANGE. Not that he will be nominated, however. The Reps will likely go for one of the dead-enders.
Second, we will see blood in the streets come summer, when schools let out and another crop of freshly minted graduates move back home with Mom & Dad because they can't find jobs. OWS will be far larger, and far better organized. The question is one of focus. Already, OWS has burned the 99% concept into the minds of America, and like it or not, a majority see this movement in a positive light. None of us know how this is going to play out in 2012, but 2011 was just the warm up.
He is right to point out what the Supreme Court has done to us and how important their 'corporations as people' and 'money is speech' decisions are. They essentially ended what meaningful democratic representation we had left...thanks to all the right-wing nit-wits who thought it was a good idea to confirm Thomas, Scalia, Roberts, & Allito. Strict Constitionalists, my ass. Strict Facists is more like it.
However, as is often the case, their over-reach may be their undoing. If OWS will focus on just a few key issues, all hell could break lose come election time. If every candidate were forced to answer 2 key questions, the public's awareness of these issues could overwhelm the status quo's desire to prevent change. The questions are:
1.) Do you agree with the Supreme Court that corporations are people and money is the same thing as speech?
2.) Will you support breaking up the big banks and bringing back Glass-Steagal?
When Romney was asked, he said that corps were equal to people. Good luck defending that position and convincing the majority....and Obummer would have his own set of problems answering, too.
Happy New Year!
Corporations are people and ... "all people are equal, but some people are more equal than others". Deepest apologies to George Orwell
I just want to express my apologies to the Pygmy people for my insensitive comment likening them to Newt. They may be short, but I assume that their morals are beyond reproach, unlike Newt. I should have called him a moral “cretin” instead of insulting an entire race of people.
A friend of mine spent a lot of time in Africa in the '60s. He told me that one evening he was having dinner with a group of Pygmies and the meat seemed a bit unusual. So he looked in the pot and noticed that the bones didn't look look like animal bones. He asked the Pygmies and they told him that the meat was what they called "long pork" and had formerly belonged to one of the inmates of a nearby leprosy sanatorium.
Sounds like he reads a lot of mainstream media. At least he is for closing his positions each day unless he has someone there to trade through the night.
First post of a ZH lurker.
The most important paragraph, in my view was:
"
But today there are so many alternative media sites and bloggers like myself and others who are bringing up these issues 24 hours a day, there’s really no excuse for people to be surprised. The one thing we always have to be aware of, obviously, is that these markets are manipulated by the central banks and, if you’re not trading 24 hours a day, you’re liable to wake up in the morning and have your positions wiped out because of a European Central Bank action or a surprise action by the Fed at 7:30 in the morning."
After lurking in all other sites such as ZH (Seeking Alpha, Market Watch, Business Insider, Azizonomics etc) I conclude that a lot of disaffected (The lost their savings gambling the markets) people are venting their spleen on these sites, but still have no idea.
Because the market is now centrally planned by the BIS and its Henchmen, the Central Banks, it is impossible to use history as a guide, and charts for that matter. The top houses and traders have read all the books, most new traders have, and as a result they (and their algos) know how to shake out Retail, and even wholesale traders.
Most of the bears are probably paid shills to strike fear in peoples hearts, forcing them to liquidate their underwater holdings.
People forget that money equals a commodity to exchange it for. With all this liquidity and money printing, the dollars will be winding up in the hands of people who are snapping up hard commodities, before the owners realise that the money is devalued.
For this reason I have gone to Cash (To buy items at deflated desperate prices) and prime farmland (to earn income from people who have to eat). In Australia you can only own guns if you have a farm or member of a sporting shooter association. I bet eventually the sporting shooters will lose their right, but farmers will have a genuine reason (Stock shootings, vermin shootings and pest control) IF the SHTFH (Hard-causing a fine gut wrenching spray) at least I know I will be able to defend my interests. (My great Grandfather and Great Grandmother on both sides were burned alive in their home in Ukraine WW2 and I am learning from history)
BTW I have contacts in Australian Real Estate, in prime areas of Melbourne, and the market has dropped 40% in price offers but vendors are not selling. Once they are forced to sell (unemployment or panic), they will be underwater big time. In Australia, we have full recourse loans, so consumer spending is going to take a dive. Short Australian Banks and Retail. Australian Banks have heavily relied on offshore financing of Mortgages, and their funding costs are huge. I used to work in the Big 4 banks and their IT systems are inadequate for them to report quickly and efficiently.
Great to have your local thoughts.
Your talking about Australia and guns, makes me think of that wonderful, hilarious classic song, 'I Like Guns', by Australian singer Steve Lee, that has gone quite viral around the world, with the YouTube video now over 3.6 million views ... popular with us gun owners ... here are some of the lyrics:
« I like guns, I like the way they look
I like the shiny steel and the polished wood
I don't care if they're big or small
If they're for sale, Hell, I want 'em all ...
I ain't gonna shoot anyone
And no one shoots at me, 'cuz I got a gun ...
God made the animals, God made the trees,
God made you, Hell, He even made me
God gave me this voice, so I could be a singer
So you tell me why I got a trigger finger! »
Just wonderful, Steve Lee, 'I Like Guns'
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-TC2xTCb_GU
Note to readers, especially Americans: In Contentental Europe, gun ownership is generally less restrictive than in Anglo countries like Australia or the UK (which confiscated all privately owned handguns in the 90s). There are a lot of guns in private hands in Europe.
As a French government official said not too long ago, it is important that private citizens have guns, because you never know when governments could 'change', i.e., when the Nazis might come back in some new form.
...I just want to express my apologies to the Pygmy people for my insensitive comment likening them to Newt. They may be short, but I assume that their morals are beyond reproach, unlike Newt. I should have called him a moral “cretin” instead of insulting an entire race of people.
Oh! I see! So it's ok to insult Greek Islanders instead?
"The question is, will the Republicans nominate Gingrich or Romney or some other third person that we don’t know about yet."
Has this guy not heard of Ron Paul??? Same old MSM perspective. Furthermore, how about something more substantive than, "...So the technicals always come first...."
Amen.
Exactly. Ron Paul, the one interesting candidate from both parties. Paul is ahead of Romney in Iowa, and this gum flapping head talks of Gingrich and Romney.
i'd rather watch kyle bass! his comments are more to my liking, plus, i like beavers!
More chaos in the markets. There's an understatement. We'll see chaos with investors hands tied behind their backs. i looked for the consequences of the collapse of the Euro and the resulting chaos. A cascade failure in financials is on the table, every minute of every day.
http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/11/02/the-daily-climb-2/
"In all honesty, I would hope that, my wish would be that the politicians and those on the Right and the Left can come together a little bit more in the center so that we can solve some of these terrible issues that we’re facing."
There are no solutions in the center ...
Republicans: Let's head for insolvency at 45 mph!
Democrats: Let's head for insolvency at 90 mph!
Gridlock: Good.
Good analogy, but I would offer...
Republicans: Let's take the 100 mph train to Insolvency, and pretend we're going to Recovery!
Democrats: We don't have time for that. Let's borrow another trillion dollars and build a new 300 mph Bullet Train to Insolvency!
Republicans: No. We're opposed to wasteful spending, and cost overruns will turn it into a Two Trillion Dollar Bullet Train.
Democrats: Cost overruns are good. The more we spend, the better the recovery. Besides, we'll build half of it in your districts.
Republicans: Done!
(shake hands and go golfing together)
Best analogy of the current political clusterfuck I have seen yet!!!! Bravo my good sir! +1
Problem is, with gridlock we are still head for insolvency at 40 mph.
Not mentioning of Ron Paul is an indicator of belonging to corrupt elites. An indeed, we see in next paragraphs:
... to form one united fascist tyrannical government.
Thank you for advice.
hmmm... so what is he actually doing in current "market" ?
>>>I think it’s important from the standpoint of the—mostly from the standpoint of the Supreme Court, because we have a Supreme Court now that has said that corporations are people and money is speech. And if there’s another Republican administration, that conservative majority on the Supreme Court will be further enhanced for possibly another generation, so there’ll be little hope of any change in that attitude of corporations being people and money being speech. So, as long as that’s the case, we’re going to have a political economy that is controlled by the corporate interests.<<<
This is where the rubber meets the road.
And while you may argue we have this now, >>>a political economy that is controlled by the corporate interests<<< it can easily become orders of magnitude worse...and for as long, long time.
one person's opinion :.... nonsense ... the Supreme Court is now part of 'the konspiracy' ..... Lee Adler lost all credibility right there for me ..... and so are the Boy Scouts because they wear uniforms and kerchiefs .. they must be proto-fascists ... it is obvious ....
it is long-standing law and one of the crucial reasonss capitalism took hold .. that a corporation is treated as a person ... otherwise ... well go read & research for yourself instead of getting a free education from me.
This is a huge red herring that 'corporate interests' are manipulating 'free speech' ... yet unions ... a labor cartel pure & simple can do what they want including threaten or use actual physical violence....
Get real ... focus on Goldman Sachs as your culprit for all the plain-to-see machinations and influence-peddling thye are engaged in globally .... not some 'I wanna believe some ethereal cororporate konspiracy' .. the Koch Bros can't hold a candle to the Sandlers (yeah ... I dare you or anyone hear to 'profile' what they (the Sandlers) have done in the interests of 'common people' or Soros or .... why am I wasting my time trying to talk reason ......
the agenda here is border-line Putin under the guise of the little guy and libertarianism .... I'm libertarian but do not buy all the 'konspiracy' fight club stuff promulgated on the internet. And I respect Ron Paul, because he was early & consistent about warning all regarding the Federal Reserve .... but being right about a major unsung issue does not a candidate make .....
one person's opinion .... this is nonsense ... the Supreme Court is now part of 'the konspiracy' ..... and so are the Boy Scouts because they wear uniforms and kerchiefs .. they must be proto-facists ... it is obvious ....
it is long-standing law and one of the crucial reasonss capitalism took hold .. that a corporation is treated as a person ... otherwise ... well go read & research for yourself instead of getting a free education from me.
This is a huge red herring that 'corporate interests' are manipulating 'free speech' ... yet unions ... a labor cartel pure & simple can do what they want including threaten or use actual physical violenc e....
Get real ... focus on Goldman Sachs as your culprit not some 'I wanna believe some ethereal cororporate konspiracy' .. the Koch Bros can't hold a candle to the Sandlers (yeah ... I dare you or anyone hear to 'profile' what they (th Sandlers) have done in the interests of 'common people' or Soros or .... why am I wasting my time trying to talk reason ......
I wouldn't worry too much about that. We're reaching an impase culturally and socially. I think substantive blowback is likley in the near term. The idea that we'll be dealing with these same problems in 20 years is a bit unlikely. We will have either solved these or we will have a whole crapton of new issues to deal with.
I believe that a f**k-ton of issues would be more likely than crap-ton.
I also have a feeling that we will look back on this time in about 10 years as "the good old days", sort of how the 1980's and 1990's are becoming nostalgic.
Move along folks.
"my wish would be that the politicians and those on the Right and the Left can come together a little bit more in the center"
really? come together on what - more of the same
if gingrich is a "moral pygmy" what does that make obama?
An incompetent product of affirmative action with illusions of grandeur?
the interviewer should apologize to cretins for his insensitivity, given that cretinism is a condition that is due to untreated congenital deficiency of thyroid hormones.
he should call gingrich what he is, namely evil.
A moral quark ?
That made me smile!
DavidC