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The Mobile Computing Wars Are At The Half Time Mark and Google Is Killing Them!
About a week and a half ago I posted "The Evidence Of Android Dominance Continues To Roll In - iOS Looks To Have Stopped Growing Market Share". I think its time to expound upon this thought for the Mobile Computing Wars looks to be roughly at the 50% markand as I anticipated, Google is wiping the floor with the competition - all of the competition. Also as I anticipated, the market has (up till now) totally undervalued Google while overvaluing its rivals (RIMM, AAPL, and potentially even MSFT).
To recap, I illustrated what some failed to realize, and that was that a major paradigm shift in communication and computing was upon us that would dwarf the ascendancy of IBM in the '70s and Microsoft in the '80s and '90s - see There Is Another Paradigm Shift Coming in Technology and Media: Apple, Microsoft and Google Know its Winner Takes All. At the time (1st quarter of 2010) the players were evident, but the likely winner wasn't, at least for another quarter or two, then the evidence became much clearer to me. Unfortunately (or fortunately, at least for the price of longer maturity call options) the market couldn't see what saw, reference Our Uber Growth Thesis For Google Is Intact and Performing Well. Basically, Google invented a unique and new business model that is apparently unassailable by the current participants in this battle. It defined the war, and by definition, it left some obvious casualties - casualties which I instructed my subscribers to short in a very contrarian (at the time) move, reference RIM Gets RAMMED! Again... Remember That Contrarian Call 1st Quarter of 2010?.
The two potential contenders to Google's title were Apple and Microsoft, with Microsoft getting the slight nod (see An Introduction to How Apple Apple Will Compete With the Google/Android Onslaught and Don’t Count Microsoft Out of the Ultra-Mobile Computing Wars Just Yet - remember, these articles were written almost two years ago).
Yes, I know Apple was (and probably still is to those who are not in the know) the popular favorite, but they have been outclassed by the Google negative cost business model
Apple's decent was obvious to BoomBustBlog subscribers last year, reference How Google is Looking to Cut Apple’s Margin and How the Sell Side of Wall Street Will Enable This Without Sheeple Investor’s Having a Clue and Empirical Evidence of Android Eating Apple!. Now, fast forward a year later and a Google search reveals...
Yes, Google has now dominated Apple in Europe. How? Why? Well, as mentioned above Google's business model is custom crafted to take out the closed end, fatmargin biz model of its competitors - see Looking at the Results of Google's "Negative Cost" Business Model Employed Through Android. As is, it is currently unassailable. No, it wasn't tech that propelled Google forward, it was business strategy. Don't get it twisted, though, the tech followed shortly thereafter. TheSamsung Epic 4G Touch and Galaxy Nexus handsets are drastically, and I do mean Drastically, superior to the lately released iPhone 4. As you can see, these vastly superior and briskly selling handsets are available for as little as $79, brand new on contract! What does this portend in the near future? Sliced Apple Margins For Dinner?
What happens when you combine superior technology, extremely aggressive pricing, and...
a global slowdown in economic growth???
You get the elimination of the fat margined business model, which is what Apple has built its empire on. Apple's loss of dominance in the handset market means much more than many realize.
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Samsung and Android Overtake Apple in Australia - BriefMobile
briefmobile.com/samsung-and-android-overtake-apple-in-australia1 day ago - Also according to IDC, Apple's iOS market share at 36% fell short of Android's market share that increased to 49%. Read IDC's press release after the break. ...
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Samsung overtakes Apple in Australia despite patent attacks ...
www.bgr.com/.../samsung-overtakes-apple-in-australia-desp...
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1 day ago - Despite a strong iPhone 4S launch, Apple's share of the Australian smartphone market totaled 36% in the third quarter while Android's market sharejumped to ... |
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Low prices boost Android's tablet market share ... - Android Headlines
androidheadlines.com/.../low-prices-boost-androids-tablet-market-sha...20 hours ago - The free market, in all its terrible beauty, is Apple's most friendly enemy. After 18 months of being effectively the only tablet game in town (as a.
The Google search sample above was very easy to see coming if you were objective. I predicted the market share shift, and even the companies and products that were involved, as excerpted from "Is The Evidence For An Apple Margin Collapse Now Incontrovertible?" 5/19/11:
This is going to be a much tougher fight for Apple than even that of the smartphone market, and you see how well Android did in that category as the current market leader in both footprint and growth rate. Literally98% more competition is coming down the pike this year, and products are already widely reviewed as at parity or superior in Apple's chief diversification segment (remember, derives ~70% of its profits from the iPhone). With that, even the iPhone is supremely challenged by Apple's own parts vendors, Reference Looking at the Results of Google’s “Negative Cost” Business Model Employed Through Android:
Apple's biggest suppliers (the most important parts vendors for the products that contributes about 75% of Apple's profits) and the companies that Apples is currently embroiled in global litigation with (no wonder why) also produce similar products, ex. the LG Optimus 3D and the Samsung Galaxy S II.
Speaking of the Samsung Galaxy, this newest refresh is nearly universally thought of to be the best smartphone available, including the Apple iPhone. I haven't found a single review yet that has said otherwise. This is an impressive feat considering how "Apple-centric" the media currently is. Reference this snippet from Endgadget:
For a handset with such a broad range of standout features and specs, the Galaxy S II is remarkably easy to summarize. It's the best Android smartphone yet, but more importantly, it might well be the best smartphone, period. Of course, a 4.3-inch screen size won't suit everyone, no matter how stupendously thin the device that carries it may be, and we also can't say for sure that the Galaxy S II would justify a long-term iOS userforsaking his investment into one ecosystem and making the leap to another. Nonetheless, if you're asking us what smartphone to buy today, unconstrained by such externalities, the Galaxy S II would be the clear choice. Sometimes it's just as simple as that.
Apple IS a cell phone company, as defined by both revenues and profits. They cannot afford to lose this battle to Google.
As excerpted from Slicing Apple's Margins...
The graph below illustrates the importance the iPhone represents to Apple's franchise. Believe it or not, this graph actually understates the importance of the iPhone to Apple for while it brings in 45% of the revenues, it is responsible for about 70% of the profits. Apple has become too reliant on one product, although that reliance was borne from the fabulous success of said product. While Apple will probably derive some much needed revenue diversification fromiPad sales, the iPad will face the same hurdles that the iPhone is coming up against - and that is competition from Android-based devices and potentially even Windows Mobile 7 8 (albeit this is an admittedly much more speculative statement).
Breaking the argument down even further, you see how the iPod and the iPhone have literally transformed this company. While I am sure it will continue to be fantastic company with cool products, I doubt very seriously that it will be able to grow in the future as it has in during the last 7 years.
The saving grace is that the smart phone and portable computing market will grow quite quickly, allowing companies with dwindling market share to still capture increasing revenues. The ugly reality is that those revenues will have to be burdened with increasing R&D, marketing and distribution costs since the amount of competition will probably scale faster than the market itself. That, my friends, is a very good thing for you and I, the consumer!
All paying subscribers are welcome to download the mini-model which shows Apple's earnings sensitivity to margin compression through competition. This is the very crux of determining the extent of Apple's success or lack thereof, in the near to medium term. Click here to download (
Apple iPhone Profit Margin Scenario Analysis Model), and click here to subscribe.
Now to Apple management's credit, they have recreated the tablet industry to dominate that with higher (than the competition) margin products, albeit productswhose margins are lower than the iPhone and iPod. Due to the relatively lower margin of the pads, Apple has to sell a lot of them to maintain profit growth as competition lights up in the smart phone category. Guess what, though... Competition is heating up in the tablet category even faster than in the smartphonecategory, and Google has captured 40% of the tablet market in a year! Damn, that's quick, eh? Was this hard to see coming? Do you remember when pundits declared that the iPad would dominate for several years?
Look to my writings from last summer to determine the common sense reasons why Apple is at risk despite the lovefest that the media, the sell side of Wall Street and the equity markets have for it: How Google is Looking to Cut Apple’s Margin and How the Sell Side of Wall Street Will Enable This Without Sheeple Investor’s Having a Clue. After nearly a year of showing nearly incontrovertible evidence that Apple has seen its heyday, the mainstream media is catching on. First a quick overview of my thoughts...
- Look & Listen Closely As The Solitary Margin Compression Theory Slowly Bears Fruit: Apple to Drop Flagship iPad Prices?
- Steve Jobs Calls End Of the PC, We Call The End Of The Fat Margin Tablet – Including The Pretty iPad, With Proof!
- Is The Evidence For An Apple Margin Collapse Now Incontrovertible?
- I Absolutely Dare Anyone To Read This And Still Not Consider The Probability (Not Possibility) Of Apple Suffering From Margin Compression
As of last week, Android is activation over 700,000 handsets, PER DAY! That is amazing growth, up from 225,000 per day last year. As a matter of fact Android is the only OS outpacing smartphone growth, meaning that it is the only OS that is growing - translation: it is taking share from ALL of the other OSs! Does this surprise anyone? Hopefully not anyone that knows a BoomBustBlog subscriber. We told you this LAST year! As excerpted from Apple on the Margin, the prescient proof from last year is available for download as an Excel model to BoomBustBlog professional and institutional subscribers, here: 
Smartphone Market Model - Blog Download Version. Those who wish to subscribe or upgrade their subscription can do so here:
I often scan the comment sections of many blogs and websites to get a feel for the readers' perspective. One premise I see espoused often is that Android is succeeding at the expense of Nokia, RIM and MSFT, and not that of Apple. Both I, and the facts, disagree with this notion. As it stands now, Android is literally eating Apple's smart phone market share, and as of last quarter - which does include a partial month of the big sellers from both the Apple (iPhone 4) and Android (Evo, Samsung Galaxy, Droid X) camps - Apple's phone sales are actually growing slower than the market is expanding. In comparison to the near parabolic growth of the last few years, it is evident that that growth is going somewhere. Where do you think it is going? The potential for lag in phone sales right before a major hardware upgrade should be taken into consideration, for there was probably a lull in Apple phone sales in anticipation of the iPhone 4 release, but the same can be said for the Android handsets as well (all around the month of June).
Below is a graph showing the longer term trend of Apple market share in the smart phone space. It illustrates the explosive growth Apple has had through its iPhone series, and it also shows some seasonality (ex. lull before hardware upgrade season, etc.). As you can see, the growth trend, viewed either directly or as a moving average, shows marked downward momentum. Of course, it is highly unreasonable to expect a company to continue to grow at the pace that Apple has, but that is exactly what many Apple valuation models that I have come across have - literally hard-coded in. This is folly, in my opinion - particularly considering the effect of the Android competition that is already showing up. If you look closely, Apple's smart phone market share is already showing NEGATIVE growth!
Since I know that the chart may be a little difficult to read at the tail end encompassing several years of data, I have taken the liberty to drill down to the past year to get a closer look. Remember, Android sales didn't really get started until 8 months ago, and the big surge didn't occur until the Evo/Droid X/Samsung Galaxy series were launched in June, July and August - most of which is not captured here. The same is to be said for Apple and the iPhone 4.
Click to enlarge to printer size!
Despite increases in both the overall mobile market and more importantly, the smart phone contingent's penetration of said market:
- Apple's smart phone shipments are showing a negative growth trend
- and more importantly, Apple's smart phone market share is experiencing a very sharp downward trend as shown by both direct observation and that of the 2 period moving average.
By trailing the actual growth of the smart phone market, it is far from a foregone conclusion that Apple, nor any other company for that matter, can necessarily tread water by relying on the expansion of the smart phone market. It is quite possible for the winner in this space to capture enough market share to put a material hurting (in terms of valuation multiples) on the loser, primarily if that winner becomes a de facto standard (ex. Android OS, MSFT OS,iOS or even Nokia's Symbian OS) that can lock out the users of the competing devices for much of the smart phone functionality.
I will be exploring this concept in illustrative detail with the release of the Research in Motion forensic analysis and valuation within roughly 48 hours.
We all know how that RIM forensic research worked out... Last but not least... The Only, and I Mean the Only, Investment/Research House To Warn Of An Apple Miss Is Vindicated!!! Friday, 14 October 2011 04:54
In the 3rd quarter of last year, I said that Apple will deliver a miss and start to exhibit the stress from the competition from Android with 4 to 8 quarters. I also said RIM was toast with Blackberry jam, and I sad that Google will be taking over mobile computing. Well, let's take a look at how accurate I was EXACTLY 4 quarters afterward...
'Nuff said! The early story is available here: The mobile computing wars!
Below, I drilled down on the date and used a percentage difference view to illustrate the improvement in P/E stemming from the earnings beats.
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Google’s Q1 2011 Review: Part 2 Of My Comments On The Gross Misvaluation of Google and in substantially more detail in private -the subscriber forensic analysis (63 pg Google Forensic Valuation, to plug in your own assumptions see Google Valuation Model (pro and institutional). |
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The competition is stiff out there. But this competition is helping users get better gadgets and applications. Most new applications could be downloaded in your mobile, computer. But some might contain virus so it is important to install Antivirus Software.
Reggie, please shut up.
By the way Reggie, I have an Ipad (hand me down, not my choice) and while having to wait for someone to shop at a Barnes and Noble store, played around with a Nook tablet.
Its nice, Angry Birds looks great on it...I preceded to do everythign I do with my pad, and found the experience great, Its got a decent screen, good media viewing etc.
I cant wait for the products a year from now, definitely will upgrade to a $200-$250 Android tablet in a year, and it will be major upgrade.
Kindle Fire software is a mess and still most like it, just wait to for their next generations...
even if a $200 tablet can't hold a candle to a Ipad, just remember what portable gaming devices like Nintendo DS and PSP were selling for when new and the games cost $30-$40.
Now you can get your kid a tablet, go hog wild and spend $50 on apps, including great educational ones, and they will be entertained more than those portable devices. And thats ONLY if they did gaming. Now consider this $200 device can also surf web, check email, watch movies (how much did people spend on portable DVD players), play music, and be used to read books, textbooks, store photos, do school work etc.,..
Even poor families struggling in a recession could get a TON of value from a low end android tablet. These things are going to get better and better software and app markets and will be priced in a way that is accessible to masses.
A certain % of people will stay true to Apple regardless of what comes into the market because the I-Phone is more than a cell phone, it's fashion accessory, a status symbol, a luxury brand. It's like the Hermes or Chanel of the tech world. People who buy these products for the features are a completely different kind of customer and will switch from one phone to the next based on real techie stuff, price, ext. Maybe they were PC users who bought the I-Phone because it was the only one of it's kind and now that they have choice are defecting.
My guess would be that these non core customers would drop off, leaving the die hard image conscious consumers staying true to Apple and continuing to influence others to buy the I-Phone.
Almost every person that I know who works in art, music, fashion, film or advertising would never even look at another touch screen phone, wouldn't even consider it, regardless, of what it offered at whatever price. And since those people are generally the trendsetting people of the world, other wannabe trendy people tend to follow them.
In that regard, as Reggie pointed out, marketing has been a very important component of Apple's success. However, with the figurehead gone, whether the successor will be able to maintain this image remains to be seen. It's similar to Tom Ford leaving Gucci, it's wait and see.
I sold my Apple position when it was obvious Steve Jobs was pretty sick, not because of the fundamentals and changes in the competitive landscape that Reggie rightly pointed to, but because he was such a big part of the very image that sells Apple and I just don't know who will fill those shoes, and if they will be trusted by the board to take the same risks that made Apple revolutionary. Maintining this kind of cult image into the future will not be something that can be done by commitee or focus groups alone. Art ,like fashion, is always better if it's not derivative.
Anyway, that's my humble opinon for whatever it's worth. I'm not like a lot of you pros here. I asked mom to buy me Apple stock in 1994 and have held it ever since. I also bought gold bars in the late 90's because it was so cheap that I thought,, I may want to design jewlery someday and should stock up in case it goes up. LOL!
Swani, what a nice sounding bloke you are, interesting post that.
Can i agree with you (some) Apple users wouldn't be seen dead holding any other phone, like a cheap tacky Goofball copy. And there's good reason for that because Apple have earned their reputation and their coolness the hard way through considered good work, faultless and smooth software and being unmistakeable technology leaders.
Other consumers wear their copy-cat iPhones that have only got where they are by throwing their money and weight around, muscling into markets like a bull in a China shop, copying Apple, nobbling competitors and dirty tricks campaigns and peddling paid-for crony junk-journalism to make them seem like a leader when they are patently followers (in iPhones, in iPads, in laptops, in everything)
Now I ask you which consumers should be quietly confident and which consumers are a bunch of trash talk charlatans?
Later we're going to ask Reggie how his $25.00 Wal-Mart Georgio Armani-copy suit is doing and if any sleeves or legs have fallen off yet. He's (very predictably) going to answer "It's even better than the real thing!!!"
Reggie - Apple does make superior products using superior components.
Having said that - economic conditions will cause profit squeeze at APPL. GOOG et al will also get profit squeezed, however GOOG makes it's money on selling the personal data obtained from search and Android phones. APPL is trying to do the same.
It ain't the phone or the device hombres, going forward it's all about psycho / demographic personal data to sell to on line advertisers.
Now tell me of a software company that will empower users to manage what personal data they make available to the device makers or search engines....and I will be interested in investing there.
I know its a ways off, but, technically and from a UI perspective, Windows 8 for tablets is actually looking pretty spiffy. As a developer who has done IOS, Android, and Windows development, Windows is still the most accessible and easiest. And keep in mind, all of the nextgen tablet makers (AMD, NVidia Tegra, and even nextgen ARM machines) are paying attention to Windows 8.
Intel screwed the pooch with its netbook flop because they insisted on putting lame Intel GPUs with crap drivers into them. Phones and tablets outdid them with their SoC technology. SoC is maturing with chips like AMD Fusion and nextgen Tegra. Out of the box, these guys will support Windows 8.
In other words, don't ignore the possibility of Windows 8 being the thing people see as bridging the software divide that still exists between mobile and desktop. And don't ignore browser based UI technology either. Where will HTML 5, WebGL, etc play best?
With Steve Jobs gone and APPL stock 300 points above Jan 2009 value; buying now would be a mistake IMHO.
Besides, every analyst and their dog are pumping AAPL as bulletproof.
I have an Ipod Touch 4G which is a superb little computer after it has been jailbroken. But I won´t pay Apple a single cent ever for anything else apart from this device.
Apple´s app marketing and monopolistic strategies are most likely doomed in the long run. They´ll also be forced to cut prices of the hardware.
Next year I´ll probably be looking for bargains in second hand android phones, giving the Ipod to some kid.
Just like the razor biz - Apple makes their $$ on iStore Ecosystem purchases
Google's strategy is really not a new one. It's really Microsoft's strategy in the desktop space, that is; make the hardware a commodity, own the OS as platform. It's killing the proprietary platforms; RIM, Symbian etc.
We've seen this all play out before in the 80s/90s. I imagine this must be particularly embarassing for Microsoft.
This will btw, kill many of the hardware producers, they become irrelevant commodity box shifters with razor thin margins unless, they can build services with a network effect to lock users to them. I frankly don't see that.
agreed, I've been saying this Google is the 2010s version of Microsoft in 80s, and Apple play the role of Apple again, closed system yileds great product design but only minority of customers will pay premium margins for this, meanwhile Google will takes over software.
Difference is, Google is not making as much bank as MS while building up marketshare...man did MS have it all then.
Also, this time around, Apple has been a little smarter, they are keeping margins down on ipads, they have patent wars on their side (for a while) and they have been savy about locking up suppliers.
But all in all Google won biggest battle before others knew war had been declared.
This will btw, kill many of the hardware producers
I am having a tough time imagining a scenario where Intel does not lose out in the small computing space.
"..Apples is currently embroiled in global litigation with.."
Probably just 'missed' your editorial 'cut' but news last week that one of Apples copy-cat companies just lost their legal case for copying Apples patents. We shall see if the legal system continues to support Apple against the blatant cribbing of their technology and ideas by also-rans (like Google) and how much the grinds the cribbers (like Google) to a halt
"Apple IS a cell phone company, as defined by both revenues and profits. They cannot afford to lose this battle to Google."
Can Google afford to lose search to Apple? What happens when the tables are turned Reggie, or as Apple has a precision habit of doing, changing the entire game completely??
Introducing Siri... Goofball search but soooo much more (Ouch!!)
Nothing wrong with Apple products, but that doesn't mean everyone can pay the hi price or wants to adopt their vision and OS.
I find it hard to consider adopting an Apple product because of the evangelical stridency of the user base.
Sheesh.....what a fanboy you are. Apple's main component suppliers are it's main competitors - do you not understand the ramifications of this fact. Go pray at your Stevie shrine and make it all go away.
Gentlemen, unlike some here i've come to the iSpace having suffered years, nae decades, of unreliable garbage from Microshite.
Having plumped for iSpace (with no preconceptions) I found 'Wow' and 'cool' and smooth reliability (consummate professionalism). No junk journalism or trash talk from paid shills is going to take my customer satisfaction away
Goofball reminds me 100% of Microshite. Establishment players using muscle and dirty tricks, not iQ, to fuck over a market
Absolutely nothing Reggie says dissuades me from that (and i'm always on the look-out for sound info to update my brain box) ...indeed everything he says (maths aside) drives home what biased cherry picking spin he's spouting
Very disappointing coming from Reggie to say the least... but time and Apples consummate ability will disappoint him more
Hi Reggie,
Introducing Siri...
Mmm wondered what that does to Google Search and their bread and butter base?
Have you modelled it Reg?
"..these articles were written almost two years ago.."
It'll be 2 years before you're writing an article on Googles copy-cat to Siri which right now is precisely nowhere on the shelves
...but no doubt you'll be posting another Vid demo'ing it's journalistic bought 'brilliance' without checking the actual Vid for what a clunky piece of copy-cat crap it is
Introducing Siri ....another market-leading technology to run rings around the also-rans (like Goofball)
Have you actually tried Siri and compared it to Google Voice search. Google's product is more accurate, faster, and easier to use in a noisy place. I did a head to head comparison with a proud owner of a brand new iPhone 4S at the Blog meeting in the crowded, noise Salon de Ning on the roof of the Peninsula Hotel. If there is anyone reading this that was present, feel free to comment on which product was more practical and which product actually worked.
Reggie, have you ever considered that a lot of people don't care about whether Siri works better than Google's Voice search? Or vice-versa? And when I say "a lot", I mean, 99.9%?
What Google is doing with Android is simple: they are buying market share with their low-margin product. Buying market share is a very viable strategy in the software marketplace, especially software with network effects. Whether Google can capitalize on this strategy is still an open question. But for crying out loud, stop getting distracted on whether Android is "technologically better" than IOS. Because if we've learned anything from 50 years of computer and software marketing, is that technologically superior products rarely win in the marketplace. Successfully marketed products are the ones that win.
No phone Reggie, and girlfriend still on iPhone4 ...i'll just have to trust your 'independence' and the non-stop Google rose-tinted pump and dump spectacles you wear on this one
Was there anything better about Siri than Goofball Voice?
Please no more Rothchild, sorry 'Reuters' (gutter garbage) journalism as you displayed above to support your establishment peddling propaganda. Haven't the c*nts done enough nobbling RIM and Blackberry (and Sony Playstation for that matter)
It's dog eat dog out there ...the establishment are good at it (filth).. their Hallmark tactics are all over the markets clinging on in desperation to their crumbling Empires by destroying competitors as Goo-angsters have done in the phone market
How about that bet Reggie?
Here's the Question for Reggie, and the 3 junkers, again:
Was there anything better about Siri than Goofball Voice?
The answer of course is that there's EVERYTHING better about Siri than Goofball Voice. The comparison in sophistication between the 2 software products is the difference between chalk and cheese, Apple and Microshite, a thoroughbred Arab versus a desert donkey, Apple against Goofball
Goofball Voice is a crude, stiffer and more limited product than uber clever and sophisticated Siri
We're back to the same old theme... Apple a class act ...also-rans a bunch of cobblers
Isn't that right Reggie? ...you're going to be wearing blinkers for this entire race aren't you.. mind tripping up on the fences mate
so margin squeeze is beating out Apple's upmarket product strategy?
We have your word on it. We can now monitor it over the next few months....
Apple doesn't have upmarket product strategy. They have upmarket marketing strategy, but many of their products are thoroughly outclassed anywhere near their price points. The new Asus Transformer Prime trounces the iPAd 2 (I think that's universally given) but also makes the Macbook Air look like a toy at twice the price - same form factor, more hardware flexibility, more software flexibility, nearly three times the battery life. The same goes for the phones, Galaxy S2 and the Nexus Prime.
I truly believe that Apple made a grave error in not pulling out all of the stops by releasing a best of breed iPhone 5 this year. Although it would have probably been eclipsed in a few months, it would kept Apple in the first few rows of the tech race. They are being left behind rather quickly now and it is hard to catch up.
The Transformer Prime is an aptly named device. Showing both in product and marketing that ASUS needs to copy in the tablet field. Love ASUS motherboards, but that product is shameful. Hasbro will rake them over the fire on that one
ty RM for your input on this.
But I assume this comment concerns the Iphone product. What about the Ipad and I Tunes monopoly and App Store+ apps list. That is a formidable broad band product strategy offering. I don't know what Apple TV will have to offer us in terms of completing the multi media offering.
RM : what do you feel about the cloud offer of Apple and its relation to cloud comp in general. Is cloud safe or big brother territory? That is one big strategic question as per the remarks here on Google. If we give our sensitive data to cloud system how do we know it won't be pilfered by "other", big brother or big corporate, interests?
The iPhone is where the vast majority of Apple's profit comes from, hence it matters most for now.
The iPad is not a monopoly. Apple went from 92%+ of the tablet market share when they (quite ingeniously may I add) reinvented it, to 60% in a year, and that's not including the crop paper thin FULL HD 1920 by 1080 quad core tablets coming out in the 2nd quarter, or the full effect of $200 nooks and Kindle fires sold through Amazon.com and BN.com channels. The Transformer Prime hasn't even started selling in mass yet. It's not as if Apple won't make it, but you cannot remain dominant with lesser tech, higher pricing AND lower market share. You need to have no more than two out of those three to keep your margins.
The app store list is marketing. What is the practical difference between 350k apps and 550k apps? How many do you have on your phone, 10? 15? maybe even 100? Any app you want can be found on either platform or easily requested. I never believed iTunes was a monopoly, either. It caters to people who aren't aware of alternatives, and since Apple dropped DRM, there is no true vendor lock in.
As for the cloud, if your data is not physically in your posession, then it is not yours - at least not from a security/safety perspective. That's how I look at it, and it doesn't matter if Google, Apple or Microsoft coopted it.
RM : One concept I find interesting in the evolution of the universally operable, Internet integrated, hand held/thin laptop device, is the concept of "information ecosysytem device". When we get to that level of integratability of the "open system" building blocks and modularity concepts, we will make people more creatively interactive and less passive on technology dependency, allowing them to define themselves, acquire individual pesonalities in virtuality like in real life, whereby they can fully use the information/communication age to define themselves free of MEDIA controlled accessibility and filter. The MICRO system evolution will free man of the MACRO constraint.
We will go from blogging to organic growth of the individual's economic and cultural personality in time-space, defined within the boundaries of his OWN evolutive value system, not those of the MSM, and yet accessible freely to learn from and give to others; on the individual's terms. His ecosystem, open to whomever he wants it to be. Blogging is the first step on this open system road.
"Apple went from 92%+ of the tablet market share when they (quite ingeniously may I add) reinvented it, to 60% in a year..."
Holy crap Reggie, you are really missing the point on this one. If Apple STILL had 92% of the tablet market share, they would be in a worse position than they are today...because most likely, they would have 92% of a much smaller pie. Competition is helping expand the potential size of the tablet marketplace, which will allow Apple to make MORE aggregate profits in the future as the pie gets much, much bigger.
Profit margins dropping is the normal outcome of any healthy marketplace. The game is now, who can make the most PROFITS in the space.
apprcted. TY.
the Kindle fire is complete junk. The nooks are good (the Color and $250 tablet). The Transformer Prime is getting its assed erased by Hasbro
Why do you love copycat crap?
the only non copycatter was Nook Color since it was innovative in it's space and people are waking up to Amazon's bullshit. And it is really funny that people will use Amazon's ecosystem to justify the Fire but slam Apple about their ecosystem even though their products don't suck.
"..Apple doesn't have upmarket product strategy. They have upmarket marketing strategy."
Dearest Reggie, how many months for the also-product-rans to catch up with Apples Siri ?
When will their 'Me-Too' Siri product and their 'Me-Too' Siri marketing catch up with the speed of your mouth??
It's just not cool to support a CIA company like Google, censoring the American, EU and world internet, Google executives directly involved in the terrorist murder of American citizens and journalists, and Google executives helping to try to kill people in Europe ... the EU proceedings against Google for its crimes here, should help prick the Google bubble ... I know the refugee from the US in Brussels whom Google is trying to help murder.
Live Photo: Google Inc. Caught Censoring EU Search Results (for USA - CIA)
Google Internet Censorship - Censure d'Internet par Google - Internet censuur door Google
http://www.flickr.com/photos/22325431@N05/6100668211/in/photostream
'Ex-Agent: CIA Seed Money Helped Launch Google', retired intelligence agent Robert David Steele interviewed by Paul Joseph Watson on Alex Jones' Prison Planet site, and speaking of the CIA's Dr Rick Steinheiser and his connections with Google:
http://www.infowars.com/articles/bb/google_cia_seed_money_launched_googl...
Report to the EU Parliament and the Commission of the European Union
Anti-Competition Crimes of EU Internet Monopoly Google Inc. (with CIA) and Wikipedia (with CIA), to Erase EU Journalism, to Slander and Murder EU - Polish Citizen, Writer, Journalist, Non-Zionist Jew, and Harvard graduate Dr Les (Leszek - Leslie) Sachs
http://www.indymedia.nl/nl/2011/07/77181.shtml
Original in pdf format:
http://eureportsnonzionistjews.hostfile.nl/file/0zndj5ea3v/410/nzjd-eu-r...
Becasue Apple is that much better on personally identifiable data collection? (Or any other major corporation out there)
This is getting embarrassing. Reggie, relax on the apple hate.
Strange... apply math to Apple and its hate. Apply math to Goldman or Citi and it analysis. You people...
Reggie - don't lose your cool buddy - the work you knock out is pure genius. What matters is if your subscribers are making money from your work - no question there.
Merry Christmas Reggie.
You're applying maths very well Reggie, no question there.
But Goofball, like Microshite, are copying Apples lead by numb-nut numbers
They have no direction unless they're copying Apple and like Microshite will continue to be also-rans and eventually Apples breakfast
Goofball are over-stretched and out of their league ...maths (and throwing money/weight around) cannot beat precision software/ability
Let's have a wager. $100 (loser pays to winners choice of charity) that by 2015 Apple shares will still be riding higher than Goofballs (share splits to be calculated) and Apple will still be in profit and Goofball will be leaking like an over-stretched pigs bladder??
That's what I see as well.. the copycatters have to actually be innovative to take the lead not just undercut since Apple will be a first mover again and again - if you want to say they have no juice left since Jobs is dead, then that could be true. Let's see who's bag of tricks are better next year not just crunching margins
Goofball is running at a loss in my estimation... the Dark Star is subsidising their deathly takeover (monopolisation) of the Mobile phone market giving their product away free
they're doing a Microsoft trying to establish their platform as the standard to milk the market (with Ads' no doubt and build up user databases)
the hardware makers have little left to differentiate their products, they're toast if Jabber the Goofball ever decides to pull the software plug/license away
Loyalty counts for not much in a Depression but Gootrash's cheap-as-chips strategy at the masses versus Apples thoroughbred target of the sharps i thin it's Glueballs market that gets hit hardest by recession.. making no money on Android and search Ad revenue will be hit so hard it will be toast in a few years
Google is a sack of over-stretched crap, finger in every pie, peddler of all trades, Master of none