This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
My Take on the 2012 Presidential Election
My Take on the 2012 Presidential Election. As I write this, I am sitting at the San Francisco consulate of the People’s Republic of China, awaiting the issuance of my business visa. Since I will soon be in the neighborhood, I plan to interview some companies that I want to buy on the next upswing in the global financial markets. The Defense Department has asked me to call on my senior contacts in the People’s Liberation Army to try and get a read on the Middle Kingdom’s next likely president, Xi Jinping. Also, it has been ages since I had a decent Peking Duck.
It seems that whenever you do anything with China, there are always scads of people around. I had to wait in line on cold and foggy Geary Street an hour just to get into the building, pestered by assorted anti-government demonstrators. I’m now inside with my laptop, but my number is A288, and so far they have only gotten up to A24. It looks like I have a long haul.
Therefore, I am going to take advantage of the very rare luxury of some extra free time and speculate at length on the prospects of another president, that of Barrack Hussein Obama. Having spent time in the White House Press Corp under Carter and Reagan, I have some inside knowledge about how whole election process works.
The most important factor to affect global financial markets next year and years beyond will be the outcome of the 2012 presidential election. As card carrying paid up members of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader network, I therefore have not only the responsibility, but the obligation to give you my forecast about how this is going to play out.
To believe that President Obama is anti-business and bad for the economy is lunacy of the highest order. Barack knows more American history than either you or I will ever forget. He is well aware that a poor economic performance has been the primary creator of one term presidents since WWII.
Kennedy was assassinated, Johnson retired early, Carter was demolished by the stagflation caused by the Iranian revolution and the second oil shock, and George H.W. Bush was turfed out by a minor recession, despite winning the first Gulf War. Therefore, the economy had to be Obama’s top priority from the first day in office. To do otherwise was for Obama to risk becoming one of the countless jobless himself.
I believe that the economy that Obama inherited was so broken that it will take decades to fix, if ever. It is easy to forget that virtually the entire financial system was bankrupt, the credit markets had seized up, and the ATM’s were two weeks away from failing to dispense cash. The government newly found itself a major investor in the country’s 20 largest banks, General Motors, and AIG.
But the reflationary measures he was able to get through a reluctant congress were too small to engineer the recovery he needed. The boldness of the moves seen during the Great Depression was sadly absent. Remember, Franklin Roosevelt directly hired 3 million men during his first two years through the Civilian Conservation Corps, immediately preventing 5 million from immediate starvation. This was when the population was less than half of what it is today.
To a large extent, Obama has become the fall guy for the excesses of earlier administrations. The big problems facing the country are long term and structural. The $15 trillion national debt is the product of 30 years of tax cuts and spending increases, primarily for defense.
Our runaway health care costs can be traced by our failure to nationalize health care when the rest of the developed did so in the late 1940’s, enabling them to keep their medical expenses to two thirds of ours, with better results. Fear of communism was the reason. That saddled corporate America with the costs, eating into our competitiveness.
Social security and Medicare were financially flawed from the day they were launched, and modern day politicians were loath to touch them once they became sacred cows. None of these intractable problems are amenable to a quick fix.
All of this leaves Obama’s popularity in the polls falling, going into one of the most acrimonious and hard fought elections in American history. Obama has become the Jackie Robinson of American politics, the first African-American to play in major league baseball. The better the job he does, the more people hate him. When the stock market doubled after he came into office, he received none of the credit. When the Tea Party the threat to default on Treasury bonds prompted a 25% plunge, he got all of the blame. Robinson died at 53, largely due to stress.
If he can’t pull out of his tailspin, I believe the president will withdraw his candidacy, and throw it open to other contenders. That is what Lyndon Johnson did in 1968 due to declining health and an unpopular war. When you try to push history forward too quickly, sometimes it bites you back. The election of Obama was such a generational leap in so many ways that some retracement was inevitable. Blame it all on the excesses of the previous administration, which were many. After all, the Democrats don’t want to commit suicide.
There are two potential candidates. I believe that Hillary Clinton was given the safe position as Secretary of State precisely to hold her in reserve as a backup candidate in 2012 in case something happened to Obama. People of both political parties agree that she has done a spectacular job managing America’s role in the Arab spring, providing military support to drive Khadafy out of power, and keeping the Chinese buying out gargantuan debt issues. But as a presidential candidate, she is not without baggage.
The dark horse in the race is Michael Bloomberg, the highly popular mayor of New York. If there was ever a politician who can change his spots quickly, it is Michael. A lifetime Democrat, he switched parties to win as a Republican in a Democratic town. He could flip flop again, or bolt to form a third party.
I have known Michael since he went door to door on Wall Street seeking funding to start his data business to replace the aging Quotrons. A more quixotic mission there never was.
Yet he succeeded wildly, making himself a billionaire many times over, proving his credentials as an entrepreneur and a businessman, and creating an urban legend. An early adopter, I have personally paid him over $1 million in fees for the past 20 years for his versatile machine, as have most other hedge fund managers.
Where do the Republicans stand in all of this? They have to spend a year appealing to the conservative base, attempting to outmaneuver each other in a marathon to the right. Then they only have two months to swerve back to the middle to win the election. They have a somewhat hopeless task, and is why we have so many two term presidents.
What Rick Perry harangues about is popular in libertarian, oil based Texas, but will they wear it in Ohio, Washington, or Florida? I think not. Mitt Romney’s Mormon origins leave his party’s Christian base cold, and he is unelectable without them. Both these men are presenting themselves as modern day incarnations of Ronald Reagan. But I knew Ronnie for decades, first as an aspiring governor of California, and a Reagan they are not. I can’t imagine Perry telling me an off color Irish joke, as Reagan did frequently, after the cameras stopped rolling.
The rest of the field are just “also rans”. On top of this, the power of the presidency as a campaign tool is not to be underestimated. Air Force One versus a chartered bus? Give me a break.
For those who wish to participate in Macro Millionaire, my highly innovative and successful trade mentoring program, please email John Thomas directly at madhedgefundtrader@yahoo.com . Please put “Macro Millionaire” in the subject line, as we are getting buried in emails.
To see the data, charts, and graphs that support this research piece, as well as more iconoclastic and out-of-consensus analysis, please visit me at www.madhedgefundtrader.com . There, you will find the conventional wisdom mercilessly flailed and tortured daily, and my last two years of research reports available for free. You can also listen to me on Hedge Fund Radio by clicking on “This Week on Hedge Fund Radio” in the upper right corner of my home page.
»
- advertisements -
I very seldomly post about politics but I need some of what this writer is smoking or snorting. Huffington post is that way --------------------->.
This president came into office with one thing and one thing only Obamacare. There was no focus on anything else including jobs. The bailout never made it too the common people and I am so sick and fricking tired of this shared sacrifice dribble. The only ones sacrificing are those in the middle class who see their pockets being pilfered more and more everyday. Now the idiot wants to add 500 billion in the current plan in taxes. Like I said I need get some of what your fricking smoking.
Maybe Obama actually needs a history class so he will quit fucking up the country with the same shit they did the last time and it failed! I am so sick of the pundits blaming everyone else for their lack of fucking leadership. Lead, follow, or get the fuck out of the way. You assholes had super majorities and could not deliever, and then you wonder why the American people are pissed ? Time for this idiot to leave.
Since when did it become criminal to work for a living and actually try to make money in this country? I am sick of all the rhetoic and honestly would vote for a pig if it ran. At least I know I would be getting pig shit and not more excuses and class warfare.
<---------------------------------------------------- Huffington Post THIS way
Looks like MHFT not only getting buried in emails but also his own excruciating excrement flung against the bars of the Monkey House at ZH readers
TD, stop this destruction of ZH already
Steady on! 'Destruction' is going a bit far. And MHFT gets some of the best comments on here, if you ask me. Generally along the lines of 'are you fucking kidding me?,' of course, but they offset the initial waste of time most satisfactorily.
This asshole has been in Washington too long, he actually buys into all this shit.
once again thank you ZeroHedge .....
I would never entrust a dime with these folks ..... this 'waiting in line' comment starts off ok ... then at the crux of the 'commentary' swerves into New Deal orgasmic rapture.
the money line delusional quote:
"To believe that President Obama is anti-business and bad for the economy is lunacy of the highest order. Barack knows more American history than either you or I will ever forget. ..."
So, a Prez & a Team 44, when we face an econ crisisstarts off with ... not a '100 days' but rather ....
jamming a one-party healthcare solution fantasy down the nation's throat,
followed up be a debatable Dodd-Frank (the titled names should immediately make you worry ... Chris Dodd was one of the biggest frauds in the Senate)fin reform
with a 'stimulus' package that is crony capitalist chocked full of goodies for his political core,
Sir, go read Joseph Schumpeter's Capitalism, Democracy and Socialism .. then come back and comment some more ...
.. otherwise you are either a 'propagandist' tied to this Team 44 for 'favors' or seriously delusional ....
Guess 0 learned his American History at the Indonesian Madrassa or maybe on his trip to Pakistan when it was illegal to go there on an American passport?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tCAffMSWSzY#t=28 9:57
April Fools day come early this year, MHFT?
What a fucking moron! I agree....just wasted 5 minutes reading this crap to save me hours in the future! But wait...he is correct on one fact....there are 57 "towel head" MUSLIM STATES!!!!!!!!! WHAT A COMPLETE FUCKING DICKHEAD!!!!!!
Ron Paul is not an "also ran"
Basically this is a review of the statist establishment candidates with no mention of the elephant in the room who understands the problem and has the solutions.
Nice job MHFT, you've manage to insult just about everyone's intelligence here with this piece of fictional garbage.
Raise your hand if you would ever join the horse shit MHFT network?
Please tell us, MHFT, how many people on the planet are in the "network" that so deeply needs your insights?
[I'd like to take the under on this bet.]
Quit being such a douche nozzle MHFT.
Seems that MHFT has become the punching bag on the Fight Club Website.
He deserves it.
Maybe just today's serving of fresh meat. Or comic relief, depending on how you want to look at it.
You have a good point about Romney. He can never, ever carry the evangelicals. Mormon might as well be Xenu and the body thetans.
I think I just may be willing to trade the Evangelicals for the Palestinians. I honestly think the palestinians have a lot more sense and would not run the country into the ground with these trillion dollar defense budgets. If the Evangelicals love Israel so much -let them go. And take Abe Foxman and Lloyd Blankfein with you.
This is bs of the worst kind. Like somebody said earlier, I want back the 3 minutes it took me to read this trash. What a fucking shill!!!
The "Elites" don't care which one we choose, from the wide field they're giving us, as long as it isn't Dr. Ron Paul.
If you hate the current system, go with who the current system hates. Ron Paul is just the kind of "crazy" "radical" that can get us out of this mess.
RP got nailed about the health care question re: the 30 yo guy with no insurance. If you want to live by the motto that freedom trumps all, you had better have the balls to say that "society lets the guy die". He didn't, therefore he shows himself to be incapable of carrying forward his ideology to the logical conclusion and to be truthful with the American people. Thus, he reveals himself to be just another political hack. Sorry, but the truth hurts.
No, he didn't. He cleary said it wasn't the government's job to save the guy's butt; he thought private charity and the hypocratic oath would end up helping the man.
It might be "truth" to you, but it's not accuate.
Too bad it doesn't work out that way in real life. Like the guy in Cleveland who died from an infected tooth a few weeks ago because he couldn't afford to go to the clinic.
BTW, it is the Hippocratic Oath... and I am not quite sure how that helps the guy....
For the record, I ain't taking sides, only looking at the issue from an objective perspective.
Hey, I would love to have some politico say that the gubbmint can provide ~$100,000 of lifetime medicare-medicaid coverage, after that you are on your own. And if you don't like it, you are going to have to pay more taxes. Your choice.
My 15 year old daughter knows vastly more history than that semi-literate buffoon that currently resides in the White House.
Palin will will be the Republican nominee and will win. She will do it in an unconventional manner, something that Americans will see as genuine.
No BO will not step down. If this SSN and/or birth Cert forgery/frauds dont' force him Barry will hold on tight. He will provoke class warfare and race wars in the mix, in other words, he will do ANYTHING to retain power.
If Palin is "genuine" our debt is artificial
Are you being serious? Sarah is the Kim Kardashian of the political punditry sphere...
Completely unelectable and that was before her star started to wane....
had to rub my eyes after reading this utter nonsense.
hey moron mhft, if the rest of the world's health care is better than ours in the usa then use theirs. go to canada or the uk for your next surgery. put your money where your mouth is bozo the clown. sure their cost is lower: and that's because they don't serve the patient. they let them die, moron. and with respect to obama knowing more history than the rest of us: please. what garbage. you obviously speak for yourself. joe the plummer blew the guy out of the water with little effort on basic economic concepts. he had obama stumbling over his words in a basic man to man conversation. and by the way, ever heard obama talk without a teleprompter. sounds like a dumbfounded teenager: uuuuh uuuuh uuuuh whaaaaa uuuuh.
over the years i've noticed a distinct common trait with blinkered leftists like this author and that's how gullible they are. in the small cocoon the author lives in it's no wonder he writes what he does. he doesn't understand the world, although he's convinced himself he does. and just because he travels overseas means nothing. if he never leaves the cocoon what does he really learn.
as for me i'll assign the mhft heretofore in my krugman file which is to say i'll not waste any more of my life reading his tripe.
The US has the greatest health care in the world, the problem is that most of the citizens can't afford it. What part of that don't you understand?
well at least you didn't say "nobody" can afford it. hat tip to ya for saying "most" although i disagree with your premise.
I'm an American living in Canada (still pay US taxes, BTW), and I can tell you that the care here is just as good as in the US. The system does not "let people die." There are two main differences: (1) In Canada, prescriptions drugs retail for MUCH less than in the US--and that's before your insurance picks up some of the cost. (2) In the US, care is rationed by simply not insuring people. As of 2009, more than 50 million people had no health insurance, of which some 7.5 million were under 18 years old; that's a lot of kids who won't get much preventative care. In Canada, care is rationed by bumping certain people to the front of the line for care, mainly people with life-threatening illnesses, people in chronic pain, and kisd.
Your attitude about the issue is one of the main things holding back the US right now. Right minded Americans don't just want the best health care for themselves (if they did, they _would_ just leave)--they want ALL Americans to have the best health care possible.
And as for Joe the Plumber, you're kidding, right? Did anyone think that guy was anything more than a lame prop?
Obama has many faults, and he's definitely being a schmuck right now, but neither ignorance nor inarticulateness are weaknesses of his. I think you may be thinking of that other guy who was president for a little while...
Not to devolve into a healthcare debate, but the reason the US health care system is broken is because Americans eat processed fat laden crap, don't exercise, smoke, and then expect to be bailed out of a lifetime of bad decisions by doctors. I am a practicing Orthopaedic surgeon, I trained in NY and Australia (fellowship) I can tell you that poor people in the US get timely high tech care without regard to insurance. Primary care is the bigger issue. Australia has a two tiered system which provides government insurance for everyone, great care , but you may wait 2 yrs to see a sPecialist. People who can afford it but private insurance and get great timely care. Problem is, their system is going broke too. The problem is that the entire western world Is unsustainable. Obama or Romney, or anyone else (except Ron Paul) means more wars, criminality , loss of national sovereignty, and continuing to devolve into a neo feudal terror state. Collapse is near, Food , Guns, and Gold bitchez.
you have your opinion i have mine. glad though to see i ruffled your feathers so much you just had to respond because i upset your worship of the annointed one who told us he could stop the seas from rising, and that he was the one we had all been waiting for. bend over for him, goober.
obama is ignorant. he continues to pursue failed policies even as it is obvious to most folks, you excluded, of course. and he is inarticulate. as mentioned, once off the teleprompter the bum can be incoherent. that's why he even uses a telepromter speaking to schoolkids. what a joke.
only a diehard leftist like you would assume joe the plummer was a prop when in fact obama was standing out in joe's front yard when joe approached him. get a clue.
Well, he is MAD, that's pretty clear.
Backing up his views by raising his "credibility" early in this article, he seeks to presume authority status. He fails miserably, but that won't stop him. Obama DOES know history - that much I'll give him. But more than me? Nope. Won't give him that. Did he focus on the economy, as MHFT suggests, by working on health care? Nope. I can back that up because I KNOW the problems HR departments across the country are having dealing with this abortion of a law. It's a mess. Companies can't figure out what to do in the future, let alone right now, because nobody fully understands the implications. It IS a jobs-killer. Sure, it creates jobs in the government, so they can claim "job creation", but we all know that jobs created by the government cost the economy BETTER jobs in the private sector. In some cases, like the military, it's a good trade off. In others, like the IRS or other regulatory agencies, it's a horrible trade off.
Obama is NOT pro-business. He's not anti-business, either. He's just not business. He's pure government. An autocratic bureaucratic lawyer who does community organizing and destroys those communities by creating a political machine.
Sorry, MHFT, your outlook falls flat. I don't like Romney at all, but I'll vote for him over Obama today, tomorrow, and I wouldn't have yesterday....Obama is simply killing his own chances.
Perry would be an unmitigated disaster. On that we agree.
Right now, the next president is a toss up. I have no idea who it will be. Romney's chances grow as the economy tumbles. Obama doesn't know what to do because he's barely capable of paying attention to anything but winning the next election. Hilary, sorry, won't run. She won't. No chance. Not one.
Why? Because she'd lose (too many Obama ties now), but also because she is astute enough to realize that the next president may face a worse situation than this one. She doesn't want that. Romney is managerial enough to think he can actually do something - and the reality is he just might be able to simply because he's likely to invoke more market friendly legislation and roll back some of the PURE CRAP Obama put into place.
Either way, the real problem is government and politicians. Just because you are beholden to a certain political POV doesn't mean you have to adhere to it as the theories behind it unravel.
It's embarassing to have to remind Americans that government can NEVER be the problem. Government is merely a symptom. WE'RE the problem. That's how things work in a democracy. Government relfects the chracter of the people.
The view that government is the problem was, as I recall, a halfway clever marketing slogan that Reagan used to win the votes of people who would rather blame someone than take responsibility for their self-governance.
glad to see you're a perry / paul supporter given that they want to make washington as irrelevant in our daily lives as possible. there might be hope for leftists like you after all, although i doubt it.
sarc off
"The Defense Department has asked me to call on my senior contacts in the People’s Liberation Army to try and get a read on the Middle Kingdom’s next likely president, Xi Jinping."
Thanks MHFT! On your way back can you stop in Japan and solve the Fukishima reactor problem?
Ain't this guy a hoot? Knows everyone and everything too. The total package. Hillary? - fergitaboutit! American's won't vote for her in large numbers; she's the Methodist of politics - warmed over oatmeal, and incapable of lying convincingly.
Trudat. Pretty surprising, really, given the decades of practice she's had. (MHFT was probably on the plane when they flew into Bosnia under sniper fire...)
Good idea. Hopefully he gets right up close to see what's going on.
Thank you for this eye opening contribution, I now know to ignore your future articles. Five minutes wasted today will save me hours in the future.
how come the rating bar stops at one
MHFT ought to stick with what he knows and it sure as hell ain't politics. Barry knows history alright. History as taught through the lens of radical leftwing revisionist. My eyes are open enough to understand that this nation is not, nor ever has been truly a 'shining city on a hill' but Barry and his ilk represent a sickness, not a cure.
Ya lost me there, Mao. I'm more of a Jeffersonian, free-market American.
All governments are actors in the free markets that they police. That's one of the meanings of the market being free. What's not obvious about this?
(I hope) You forgot your sarcasm tags.
Shit MHFT, you're going to China??? Looks like you're going to have the hardest job in the world.
That's funny.
Why is this guy given such prominent placing at the top of the home page? Is he a big contributor?
name dropping is humble
war is peace
more stimulus to banks is good for the economy
.......
i prefer Robo telling us to go all in NFLX Now!
Obama may know American history than me but I know I am more American than him.
(Mr. 57 states www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpGH02DtIws; not counting Alaska and Hawaii of course...lmao)
Anybody ever notice Obama's real intials are BS (Barry Sorto)