A new Stock Market Crash, a pattern?

From thetrader.se

The Nature of Crashes. They tend to come and go, irrespective of Twisted Operations. As Churchill once said;

”This is not the end, it is not even the beginning of the end; maybe it is the end of the beginning.” interesting paper below.

Every production phase or civilization or other human invention goes through a so called transformation process. Transitions are social transformation processes that cover at least one generation. In this article I will use one such transition to demonstrate the position of our present civilization and its possible effect on stock exchange rates.

When we consider the characteristics of the phases of a social transformation we may find ourselves at the end of what might be called the third industrial revolution. Transitions are social transformation processes that cover at least one generation (= 25 years). A transition has the following characteristics:

-    it involves a structural change of civilization or a complex subsystem of our civilization

-    it shows technological, economical, ecological, socio cultural and institutional changes at different levels that influence and enhance each other

-     it is the result of slow changes (changes in supplies) and fast dynamics (flows)

Examples of historical transitions are the demographical transition and the transition from coal to natural gas which caused transition in the use of energy. A transition process is not fixed from the start because during the transition processes will adapt to the new situation. A transition is not dogmatic.

Five transition phases

In general transitions can be seen to go through the S curve and we can distinguish four phases (see fig. 1):

1. 1. a pre development phase of a dynamic balance in which the present status does not visibly change
2. 2. a take off phase in which the process of change starts because of changes in the system
3. 3. an acceleration phase in which visible structural changes take place through an accumulation of socio cultural, economical, ecological and institutional changes influencing each other; in this phase we see collective learning processes, diffusion and processes of embedding
4. 4. a stabilization phase in which the speed of sociological change slows down and a new dynamic balance is achieved through learning

A product life cycle also goes through an S curve. In that case there is a fifth phase:

1. 5. the degeneration phase in which cost rises because of over capacity and the producer will finally withdraw from the market.

Full paper by Mr Grommen A new stockmarket crash, a pattern.

Comments

[johnQpublic]

it stands for idiot quotient in this application

[Don Birnam]

Trader, your inserted photograph is a bit out of focus.

Try this one:

http://i2.listal.com/image/395820/936full-the-shining-screenshot.jpg

[SirIssacNewton]

Awesome photo.....

[Cpl Hicks]

Is that Jack Nicholson in the lower left?

"Here's Johnny!"

[John Law Lives]

Yes. That photo was shown at the end of "The Shining" which starred Jack Nicholson.

[Don Birnam]

And of course, the musical accompaniment...

http://m.youtube.com/index?desktop_uri=%2F&gl=US#/watch?v=UP9Uubvm91I

[BanjoDoug]

THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT ........   it's a lot, lot worse......

[Spirit Of Truth]

Indeed....this is the Apocalypse Wave as far as I can tell: http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2011/08/fall-is-approaching.html

[shazbotz]

BLACK FRIDAY Bitchez!

[Spirit Of Truth]

Well....for what it's worth, today was the same day on the lunar calendar as 9/11, i.e., Elul 23 on the Hebrew Calendar:

http://www.hebcal.com/converter/?hd=23&hm=Elul&hy=5771&h2g=Convert+Hebrew+to+Gregorian+date

For anyone who hasn't read this yet, here's the seasonal pattern: http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2011/09/autumn-panic-update-will-civilization.html

Tomorrow is the first day of the "Fall": http://www.almanac.com/content/first-day-fall-autumnal-equinox

[vast-dom]

SP 850 immanent biyatchez!