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Ft.com
RBS will announce on Thursday it is shedding another 3,000 to 4,000, the WSJ says, citing a person familiar with the matter. It will announce that it has hired investment bank Lazard to advise it on the sale of parts of its investment-banking business, http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2012/01/12/829841/rbs-to-announce-up-t...

Infosys, India’s second-largest software exporter by revenue, posted a better-than-expected rise in its third-quarter consolidated net profit, but cut its dollar revenue forecast for this fiscal year through March for the second time, http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2012/01/12/829851/infosys-profits-up-b...

Nationwide, the UK’s largest building society, is considering offering loans to small and medium-sized businesses to broaden its traditional customer base and fill a void left by the country’s biggest banks. The plans are at an early stage and it is unlikely that Nationwide will be in a position to offer SME loans until at least next year. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2012/01/12/829741/nationwide-considers...

The US Treasury sold 10-year debt below a yield of 2 per cent for the first time on Wednesday, with investors locking up their money at low returns for the safety of owning government debt, the FT reports. The $21bn of new paper was sold at a yield of 1.90 per cent,http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2012/01/12/829671/hunt-for-safety-push...

 

Credit Suisse is offering its hedge fund clients off-the-shelf products that allow traders to replicate hypothetical gains made by betting against European stock indices that include equities covered by eurozone short selling bans, http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2012/01/12/829661/swiss-bank-offers-eu...

Foreign governments and asset managers are mounting a last-ditch push against the US Volcker rule, worried that the proposed ban on proprietary trading could exacerbate a liquidity crunch, the FT says. Japanese and Canadian regulators have warned the US government that the rule,http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2012/01/12/829601/japan-and-canada-war...

Chinese inflation edged down in December, setting the stage for a continuation of cautious policy loosening to support the slowing economy, the FT reports. Consumer prices rose 4.1 per cent from a year earlier, http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2012/01/12/829521/chinese-inflation-fa...

Germany’s economy is believed to have contracted by around 0.25 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year, the government’s statistics office said on Wednesday. The Wall Street Journal reported that the contraction partially offset full-year growth,http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2012/01/11/827801/german-economy-contr...

The price of orange juice futures contracts hit a 34-year high on Tuesday after the main US food safety regulator said it would block imports containing a fungicide commonly used in Brazil, the leading producer of the citrus fruit, http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2012/01/11/827761/orange-juice-at-34-y...

European refiners have started to sever links with Iran, stopping spot purchases of crude ahead of a European Union meeting later this month that could impose a full oil embargo on Tehran.  Industry executives and oil traders said that some refiners have either stopped or reduced new purchases of Iranian oil, although they continue to receive monthly oil supplies under earlier long-term agreements, or term contracts, that they cannot break without incurring penalties.http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1cda2496-3c7a-11e1-9bcc-00144feabdc0.html...

The Swiss National Bank will pay its former chairman a full year’s salary of around SFr900,000 ($942,000), in spite of his stepping down voluntarily in only the second week of the year. The bank said Philipp Hildebrand’s contract entitled him to 12 months’ pay. The first six months covered his notice period, with the remainder compensating him for a clause in his contract preventing him from working for another bank until next January.http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e872d89a-3c4e-11e1-8d72-00144feabdc0.html...

Nigerian oil workers have threatened to shut down the country’s production – raising the stakes in a three-day nationwide strike over fuel prices.  Pengassan, the biggest oil union, said it was ready to join the mass action in Africa’s biggest crude producer, which exports more than 2m barrels a day.http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/df545b92-3c87-11e1-8d38-00144feabdc0.html...

Wsj.com
Asian stock markets were mostly lower Thursday, as easing inflation in China failed to overcome worries over fresh stresses in Europe’s economy. “China’s efforts to avoid a hard landing have taken back stage to European woes and early signs of a rebound in the U.S., but its success is critical to the fortunes of the region,” said Justin Harper, head of research at IG Markets in Singapore in a note. China’s consumer-price index rose 4.1% in December from a year earlier, slightly slower than the 4.2% year-to-year rise in November, and a touch above the 4.0% rate forecast by economists. While the data reinforced the view that Beijing is likely to further loosen monetary policy to support growth, some investors appeared to be disappointed the CPI didn’t fall more sharply.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020425750457715548302467380...

Economists expressed dismay Wednesday at a pledge from Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to strike back at an “interest-rate lobby” that allegedly seeks to stifle Turkish growth.In comments late Tuesday, Mr. Erdogan also said market interest rates should be lower. High interest rates, he said, cause inflation—contrary to orthodox economic theory accepted around the globe. “We will make the necessary sharp responses against the interest-rate lobby. We won’t let the interest-rate lobby work in comfort,” he told reporters in Ankara.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020412420457715435347807124...

Japan posted a smaller-than-expected surplus of ¥138.5 billion ($1.8 billion) in its current account for November as exporters were hit by a strong yen, supply problems due to floods in Thailand, and Europe’s economic turmoil, official data showed Thursday. The surplus in the current account, the broadest measure of Japan’s trade with the rest of the world, was down 85.5% from the same month last year and was the ninth straight month of contraction, according to data from the Ministry of Finance. The figures didn’t include any seasonal adjustment.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020425750457715545369225949...

It wasn’t long ago that India was hailed as one of the world’s most promising growth markets. But mercurial regulation, stifling bureaucracy and slower economic growth have shaken foreign companies’ confidence about making big investments here. Now a case at the country’s highest court threatens to make the climate chillier still. India’s Supreme Court is preparing to issue its decision on whether U.K.-based Vodafone Group PLC must pay about $2.6 billion in taxes on an $11.1 billion deal it struck in 2007 with a unit of Hong Kong’s Hutchison Whampoa Ltd. to enter India.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020343690457715093203532885...

In a surprising shake-up, two of the four executives in charge of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s securities division will leave the company as it struggles with a downturn in its huge trading operation. The New York firm disclosed the exits in internal memos Wednesday, without specifying the reason. David B. Heller and Edward K. Eisler will retire from Goldman after working there for 22 and 18 years, respectively.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020343690457715497049473522...

Wall Street pay is set to be reduced after a dismal year but the cuts won’t spare banking chiefs from potentially bruising encounters with investors during coming shareholders meetings. Investors ranging from charitable foundations to large state pension funds are preparing to challenge large financial firms on their pay practices. As a result, this year’s “proxy season”—the period, usually in the spring, when companies hold annual shareholder meetings—promises to be an eventful one in the financial sector, compensation consultants and corporate-governance experts say.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020343690457715475323505484...

Marketwatch.com
Foreclosure activity hit a 49-month low in December, with foreclosure filings at their lowest monthly level since November 2007, according to RealtyTrac’s monthly report. Foreclosure filings, which include default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions, fell 9% last month, compared with November, and are down 20% when compared with December 2010, according to the report. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/foreclosure-activity-lowest-since-2007-...

Economic conditions improved as 2011 drew to a close, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest survey of economic conditions released on Wednesday.  The Beige Book survey of business contacts in the Fed’s 12 districts said economic activity increased “at a modest to moderate pace.”  This rate is an improvement from the mid-November report which said some districts were growing at a “slow” pace. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-beige-book-more-upbeat-about-econo...

Bloomberg.com
Bank of England Governor Mervyn King may refrain from adding to emergency stimulus again today as policy makers await new forecasts and the economy showed some resilience heading into 2012. The Monetary Policy Committee will maintain its 275 billion-pound ($422 billion) bond-purchase target after a meeting in London, according to all but one of 41 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Citigroup Inc. and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc say it will increase the amount next month when current purchases end. The central bank has been buying about 5.1 billion pounds of gilts a week since October.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-12/king-may-refrain-from-more-stim...

India’s industrial production rebounded from the worst month since March 2009, a sign consumer demand is withstanding record interest-rate increases. Bonds fell and the stock index pared losses. Output (INPIINDY) at factories, utilities and mines increased 5.9 percent in November from a year earlier after a revised 4.7 percent decline in the previous month, the Central Statistical Office said in a statement in New Delhi today. The median of 27 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 2.1 percent gain. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-12/india-industrial-output-rebound...

New Zealand’s dollar touched a two- month high against the greenback as a report showed China’s inflation cooled for the fifth straight month in December, increasing speculation the Asian nation will provide more monetary stimulus. The so-called kiwi also rose to its strongest level since November versus the yen before data that may show U.S. retail sales grew, supporting demand for riskier assets. The Australian dollar was little changed as Spain and Italy prepare to auction debt this week amid concern Europe’s fiscal crisis is worsening. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-12/new-zealand-dollar-touches-two-...

Cnbc.com
The world’s central banks are “printing money like gangbusters,” which could revive the threat of inflation Pimco founder Bill Gross told CNBC Wednesday. By putting “hundreds of billions” in currency in circulation, the central banks “can produce reflation—that’s why we’re seeing the pop in oil, gold” and other commodities, he said in a live interview. At the same time, “there’s the potential for deflation the private credit markets can’t produce some sort of confidence and solvency going forward,” Gross said. “So we’re at great risk here, not only in the U.S. but on a global basis.”http://www.cnbc.com/id/45960932

China’s gold imports from Hong Kong, a proxy for overseas buying, set a record in November for the fifth consecutive month as demand from the world’s largest gold consumer continued to defy expectations. China’s gold imports have soared in recent months, as Chinese investors pour their savings into popular gold bars and consumers start to buy gold gifts for Chinese New Year. China’s gold imports via Hong Kong in November were leapt 20 per cent from the previous month to 103 tonnes . Thursday’s data, released by Hong Kong, brought China’s total gold imports from the territory to 389 tonnes during the first 11 months of 2011. The Hong Kong data are considered a proxy for China’s overall gold imports, which Beijing does not disclose.http://www.cnbc.com/id/45964125

Washingtonpost.com
Federal Reserve officials disagreed on the need for more easing amid signs of improvement in the economy that may shape the interest-rate forecasts they will reveal for the first time this month. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans in a speech yesterday said economic growth is modest and called for “substantial” accommodation. During the past week, New York Fed President William Dudley, Boston’s Eric Rosengren and San Francisco’s John Williams have also backed consideration of a third round of bond buying. The calls preceded release of the Fed’s Beige Book report on regional economies, which indicated the expansion improved last month in most of the U.S. on increased holiday retail sales, demand for services and oil and gas extraction. Other data in the past week showed the unemployment rate dropped to the lowest level in nearly three years and consumer credit jumped. http://washpost.bloomberg.com/story?docId=1376-LXNOW707SXKY01-0TILVFE06B...

Foxbusiness.com
The United Kingdom is ready to boost its contribution to the International Monetary Fund as long as other members of the Group of 20 also contribute. “Britain is willing to make a contribution if there is a well-argued case brought forward by the IMF, and other G20 countries agree with us that there is a well-argued case and want to make a contribution,” Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne was quoted by Reuters as telling the Treasury Select Committee on Wednesday. http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2012/01/11/uk-may-join-imf-fund-boost...

Telegraph.co.uk
European countries will be allowed to ignore new fiscal rules in difficult economic times, according to a draft of the region’s new treaty which appears to water down plans for a tough pact. A leaked draft shows that members will have to commit to keeping their deficits below 0.5pc of GDP or face the European Court of Justice (ECJ). But they will also be allowed to “temporarily deviate” from the rules “in case of an usual event” or in “periods of severe economic downturn.”http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9008470/Eurozone-wate...

Some of the gloom on the high street lifted on Wednesday after a number of retailers posted upbeat Christmas trading figures. Strong sales growth from SuperGroup and Greggs, a record number of Christmas shoppers at Sainsbury’s and a bounce in December sales at N Brown, were the latest evidence to suggest many retailers have survived the consumer downturn better than expected.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/900836...

Independent.co.uk
Chancellor Angela Merkel met the International Monetary Fund’s managing director Christine Lagarde in Berlin yesterday for talks dominated by the worsening Greek debt crisis and Athens’s race against time to avoid a disorderly default in little over two months time Their talks followed the German leader’s meeting with French President Nicolas Sarkozy on Monday when Ms Merkel revealed that eurozone leaders are considering accelerating capital contributions to the region’s bailout fund. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/time-is-running-out-for-g...

Guardian.co.uk
Leading City of London analyst says next 12 months will be one of ‘pain and disappointment‘ if Chinese economy crashes. A looming hard landing in Chinawill bring the financial and economic crisis of the past five years to a climax in 2012, one of the City of London’s leading analysts has warned. Albert Edwards, head of strategy at Société Générale and one of the UK’s leading “bears”, said the next 12 months would be the “final year of pain and disappointment”. Predicting a sharp slowdown in activity in the world’s fastest-growing emerging economy, Edwards said: “There is a likelihood of a China hard landing this year. It is hard to think 2013 and onwards will be any worse than this year if China hard-lands.” http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/jan/11/china-economic-collapse-g...

Smh.com.au
Australian credit card debt has struck a new record high of $50 billion, ballooning by almost a third in the past five years. New figures from the Reserve Bank, published today, show outstanding credit card debt topped $50 billion for the first time in November, with $36.3 billion of the total accruing interest. With 15 million cards on issue, the average debt has reached about $3333 per card, the figures show. http://www.smh.com.au/business/credit-card-debt-swells-to-record-50-bill...

Gold rose nearly 1 per cent to a one-month high on Wednesday, breaking ranks with the euro and equities, as evidence of strong physical demand from China fueled fund buying after bullion’s recent sell-off. The metal rose for a second day as the single currency hit a 16-month low against the dollar after ratings agency Fitch warned of dire consequences if the European Central Bank refrains from taking more action on Europe’s debt crisis.http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/gold-hits-fourweek-high-20120112-...

Oil fell on Wednesday as worries about Europe’s debt crisis re-emerged, pressuring the euro to a 16-month low against the dollar, while data showed that U.S. crude inventories soared. Early in the session, crude futures rose after an Iranian nuclear scientist was killed by a car bomb, an incident that Tehran blamed on Israeli and U.S. agents. The news added to worries that Mideast tensions could lead to a supply disruption from Iran.http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/oil-falls-on-risk-aversion-201201...

The European Central Bank should ramp up its buying of troubled euro zone debt to support Italy and prevent a “cataclysmic” collapse of the euro, David Riley, the head of sovereign ratings for Fitch, has warned. Speaking to investors as part of a European roadshow, Mr Riley said a collapse of the euro would be disastrous for the global economy, and while it is not Fitch’s baseline scenario, it could happen if Italy did not find a way out of its debt problems. “The end of the euro would be cataclysmic. The euro is a reserve currency,” Mr Riley said overnight. “What would that do in terms of financial and political stability?”http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/fitch-warns-of-cataclysmic...

Theglobeandmail.com
Brazil’s state development bank has announced billions of dollars in incentives to boost the country’s sugar ethanol industry. The move comes only days after the U.S. scrapped import tariffs on foreign producers of the biofuel.  The bank, known as BNDES, said it would lend $2.2-billion (U.S.) to the industry in a move that is expected to increase Brazil’s sugar harvest and boost ethanol production by up to 17.5 per cent. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-news/bra...

Straitstimes.com
Kuwait’s oil minister said international markets need more oil, and that the Gulf country considers the current price of crude ‘very reasonable.’ The country’s official news agency quoted Mohammed al-Busairi as saying that Kuwait’s daily production exceeded 3 million barrels last month.  Al-Busairi made the comments to KUNA late Tuesday amid concerns that Iran might try to close the vital Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for new United States sanctions on its central bank. http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/Money/Story/STIStory_754311.htm...

Thehindu.com
Pakistan’s military said the country’s army chief has summoned his commanders amid spiking tensions between the armed forces and the government.  However, Military spokesman Maj. Muhammad Ali Diyal declined to say what the talks on Thursday at army headquarters were about.  On Wednesday, the prime minister dismissed the defence secretary and the powerful military warned of “grievous consequences”, widening a destabilizing rift between the country’s institutions. http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/article2795214.ece?homepage=t...

Union Civil Aviation Minister Ajit Singh on Wednesday ruled out a “bailout” for struggling private airlines and asked Air India to pull up its socks and become competitive as the Government could not continue to pour money to keep it afloat. Talking to journalists here, Mr. Singh said Air India had to become competitive and take up challenges. “Government is in no position to bailout any private airlines. Air India is a public sector unit, so government has an obligation. But Air India will have to become competitive and restructure their costs as the government cannot keep on pouring money,” he remarked after laying the foundation stone for a new ATC tower at the Indira Gandhi International Airport here.http://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/article2792735.ece

Economictimes.com
India’s “growth story is intact” and the goverment would target more than eight percent growth in the next financial year on the back of easing inflation and rate cuts by the central bank that would stimulate private investment and demand, says Minister of State for Finance Namo Narain Meena. “Our growth target for the next financial year will be eight percent plus. In the medium-term, say, in two-three years, we target to reach double-digit growth,” Meena said in an interview here. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/india-to-aim...

Yonhapnews.co.kr
South Korean Foreign Minister Kim Sung-hwan said Thursday his government could launch formal talks with China on forging a bilateral free trade agreement, possibly in the first half of 2012, after finishing domestic procedures to start the talks within “a few months.” President Lee Myung-bak told his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao during summit talks in Beijing earlier this week that Seoul will soon start domestic preparations to begin official negotiations with Beijing on a free trade deal. Since 2008, the two sides have held a series of joint feasibility studies on a possible deal.http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/business/2012/01/12/28/0503000000AEN2012...

Themoscowtimes.com
Ukraine and Russia locked horns Wednesday over Kiev’s plans to cut its demand for gas, in a scenario reminiscent of previous spats that temporarily halted Russian gas flows to Europe. Ukraine is trying to ease pressure on state finances by reducing gas import volumes as it becomes increasingly pessimistic about getting Russia to cut the price of its gas supplies. The former Soviet republic, which relies on Russian gas imports to power its chemical plants and heat homes, has been attempting for more than a year to renegotiate a 2009 gas deal with Moscow, which it says sets an exorbitant price for fuel.http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/no-gas-accord-with-ukrain...
Tehrantimes.com
European Union talks on an oil embargo on Iran are becoming bogged down over discussions on exemptions for existing supply contracts and the length of a planned phase-in period, according to four diplomats. Greece, Italy and Spain are trying to soften a UK push for a blanket ban, concerned that an oil-supply shock would further damage their economies already hit by the European debt crisis, the diplomats said, declining to be identified because no final agreement has been reached. http://www.tehrantimes.com/economy-and-business/94472-eu-says-iran-oil-e...

Khaleejtimes.com
The UAE Foreign Minister Shaikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, and his host Vice-President of Greece Theodore Pangalos opened the UAE-Greece Economic Forum on Wednesday.  In his welcome address, Shaikh Abdullah said prospects for further expansion in bilateral relations were possible under the political will of the two governments. “The forum aims to boost and facilitate channels of communication between public and private sectors in the two friendly countries for expanding avenues of joint economic and investment cooperation,” Shaikh Abdullah added.http://khaleejtimes.com/biz/inside.asp?xfile=/data/business/2012/January...

Thetrader.se
Below are some random charts comparing the CRB Commodity Index VS the SPX and then a few key commodities VS the CRB. One of the key takeaways is that since the October 4 bottom in equities the CRB has severely lagged the market and is currently flashing a large divergence. SPX VS CRB – Notice the move off the October 4 bottom and the relative weakness in the CRB. As the USD moves higher this will further weaken the CRB. Additionally notice the down trending parallel channel that has contained the CRB for the majority of 2011. http://www.thetrader.se/2012/01/11/commodities-vs-spx/

Markets have been grinding higher on low volume since mid December. The Santa Rally is showing signs of fatigue. Market lacks the conviction of taking out new highs. If anything, we might get a false break. Below are 30 day charts of SPX and DAX. Low volume, low volatlity is giving investors a false sense of security. Watch those levels accordingly. http://www.thetrader.se/2012/01/11/markets-showing-signs-of-fatigue/

 

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