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Ft.com
Bondholders negotiating a debt swap with Greece may get a sweetener tied to a revival in economic growth that would ease the impact of accepting a lower interest rate on the new bonds, Bloomberg says, http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2012/02/01/861911/growth-linked-sweete...
Paul Volcker has defended proposed trading rules for US banks that are being criticised by foreign governments as likely to disrupt the operation of their national bond markets. Japanese, UK and Canadian regulators, http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2012/02/01/861901/volcker-says-bond-ma...
The Chinese manufacturing sector has made a surprisingly strong start to the year, the FT says, with domestic orders cushioning the impact of Europe’s debt woes, according to an official survey. The purchasing managers’ index, http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2012/02/01/861981/chinas-official-pmis...
France’s Dassault has been awarded frontrunner status in the hotly contested $20bn race to supply 126 fighter jets to India, reports the FT. The Indian government said the French Rafale fighter jet had beaten the four-nation Eurofighter Typhoon to become preferred bidder to equip India with the multi-role fighter jets in one of the world’s largest military contracts. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2012/02/01/861781/india-boost-for-dass...
Bloomberg reports on staling housing markets in Asia that have been hit by government efforts to prevent the real estate bubbles that Western economies have seen burst over the last few years. Property prices in Hong Kong have decreased by 6 per cent since June and Barclays analysts estimate a drop of 25 per cent could be seen by 2013.http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2012/01/31/861091/hong-kong-faces-prop...
US stocks defied European trends for a second day running, falling sharply on poor US economic data, after global indices had rallied on enthusiasm for a eurozone fiscal discipline pact brokered by Germany, http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2012/01/31/861061/house-price-fall-tri...
Unemployment figures have highlighted the widening gap between Germany and many fellow eurozone members, a day after Angela Merkel secured a new treaty enshrining Berlin’s vision for tough fiscal discipline, http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2012/01/31/861041/unemployment-rises-i...
Russia’s economy grew by 4.3 per cent last year, benefiting from a surge in agricultural output and robust consumer spending, as well as record-low inflation. Yet the country is seeing signs of a slowdown in manufacturing, http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2012/01/31/861011/russian-agriculture-...
US economic growth will slow dramatically if tax rises and spending cuts come into effect as planned in 2013, according to new figures from the Congressional Budget Office. The expiry of tax cuts originally passed by president George W. Bush, the end of a 2 per cent payroll tax holiday and automatic spending cuts agreed last August will reduce growth to just 1.1 per cent in 2013 unless changes are made. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1510a4dc-4c20-11e1-98dd-00144feabdc0.html...
Wsj.com 
Most Asian stock markets were modestly higher Wednesday as encouraging China manufacturing data tempered concerns over a batch of downbeat U.S. economic reports, while earnings disappointments in Japan capped stocks there.  Early trade was dominated by interest in China’s official manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for January, which rose to 50.5 compared with 50.3 in December, and was higher than the median forecast of 49.5 in a Dow Jones Newswires poll of seven economists. The unexpected rise in the index is likely to assuage market concerns about a slowdown in Asia’s largest economy, although the result also meant that any near-term policy easing steps from Beijing may be delayed. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020474090457719571252951537...
Mitt Romney handily won Florida’s Republican primary Tuesday, riding a new, combative campaign style to a victory that returns him to his role as the favorite to win his party’s presidential nomination. Fueled by a nearly 5-to-1 spending advantage over his top rival, Mr. Romney outpaced former House Speaker Newt Gingrich among conservatives and tea-party supporters and drew nearly even with him among evangelical Christians, according to surveys of voters leaving polling sites. Those voters had gravitated to Mr. Romney’s opponents in some prior contests. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020474090457719504165678824...
The dark knight of British banking has been ordered to hand in his sword. In what may be the ultimate clawback for a bank boss in the wake of the financial crisis, a U.K. government panel has stripped the knighthood of former Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC Chief Executive Fred Goodwin.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020465290457719503039482281...
The European Central Bank, Greece’s biggest creditor, is finding it hard to stay on the sidelines as Greece negotiates a debt-restructuring deal with its private-sector bondholders. The ECB isn’t part of the talks, even though it holds around €50 billion ($66 billion) in Greek government bonds, about one-seventh of Greece’s outstanding debt. Those holdings raise questions about the central bank’s appropriate role in keeping Greece afloat that will linger even if a deal with other investors is completed this week.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020392020457719499367745249...
London looks likely to experience a drought of new housing over the next few years, as construction of homes in the capital slows amid fears of renewed recession and a dearth of mortgage finance, a report from property consultant Drivers Jonas Deloitte suggests. While many Londoners expect this year’s Olympic Games to boost the housing stock and hope that the slowdown in construction due to the recession is over, the new data suggest the housing shortage will persist. Together with international demand for property in the city—prompted by its safe-haven status outside the euro zone and the weakness of sterling—this will stop house prices from falling as they have in much of the rest of England, industry participants say. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020392020457719496109034348...
The average housing price in 100 major Chinese cities fell for a fifth consecutive month in January as China’s property market continued to slow, a survey showed Wednesday. Still, the pace of decline slowed in January, which indicates that property prices are softening at a steady pace, abating some concerns of a sharp plunge in the market for now. The data were released a day after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao reiterated the government’s stance that it must continue with macroeconomic controls, consolidate its property-tightening campaign and bring about a “reasonable” correction in housing prices.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020474090457719595170657157...
Marketwatch.com
South Korea’s January trade data showed the country’s first drop in exports since 2009 and its first trade deficit since January 2010, according to data released Wednesday. Korean exports fell 6.6% in January compared to a year earlier, while imports rose 3.6%, sending the trade account to a deficit of $1.96 billion. In January 2011, South Korea posted a trade surplus of $2.9 billion. HSBC economist Ronald Man said the data, along with soft inflation numbers, meant the central bank would likely cut the policy interest rate by a quarter point by the end of March. “Sure, there may have been distortions from the Lunar New Year. However, this alone is difficult to justify the swing to an outright contraction,” said Man. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/korea-swings-to-first-trade-deficit-in-...
Gold futures inched higher in electronic trading, in a mixed session for metals, with gains limited by a stronger dollar.  Gold for April delivery added 80 cents, or 0.1%, $1,741.20 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange during Asian trading hours.  The gains tracked mild rises for most Asian markets on Tuesday after data showed a mixed picture of manufacturing activity in China. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-edges-higher-in-electronic-trading...
Hong Kong said Wednesday it’s on track for a budget surplus of 66.7 billion Hong Kong dollars ($8.6 billion) for the fiscal year ending March 31, compared to a HK$75.1 billion surplus in the prior fiscal year. The provisional budget figure was released Wednesday during an address to legislators by Financial Secretary John Tsanghttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/hong-kong-budget-surplus-narrowing-tsan...
Reuters.com
Facebook is expected to submit paperwork to regulators on Wednesday morning for a $5 billion initial public offering and has selected Morgan Stanley and four other bookrunners to handle the mega-IPO, sources close to the deal told IFR. The company founded by Mark Zuckerberg in a Harvard dorm room in 2004 picked Morgan Stanley to take the coveted “lead left” role in what is expected to be the largest IPO ever to emerge from Silicon Valley. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/31/us-facebook-ipo-idUSTRE80U29V2...
The United States is headed for a fourth straight year with a $1 trillion-plus budget deficit, congressional forecasters said on Tuesday, giving Republicans ammunition to hammer President Barack Obama’s spending record in November’s elections. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office said the fiscal 2012 deficit would rise to $1.079 trillion from its previous estimate of $973 billion made last August. If Congress extends payroll tax cuts through year-end, as expected, the deficit would likely rise by another $100 billion through ecember. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/31/us-usa-budget-idUSTRE80U288201...
Bloomberg.com
South Korea’s central bank is considering buying several hundred million dollars worth of Chinese equities and a greater amount of the nation’s bonds to diversify its foreign-exchange reserves. “The Chinese yuan has the potential to become a key reserve currency in the long term and thus we are building a channel to invest there,” Choo Heung Sik, 53, director general at the Bank of Korea’s Reserve Management Group, said in an interview in his office yesterday in Seoul. He said the bank may invest in Chinese shares in the second half of this year, after purchases of debt in the first six months. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-01/south-korea-central-bank-plans-...
The Australian dollar is likely to stay “relatively high for years to come,” Prime Minister Julia Gillard said, challenging the nation’s businesses to work harder to overcome the drawbacks of a stronger currency. “Our success is driving the dollar,” she said in the text of a speech to the Australia-Israel Chamber of Commerce in Melbourne. “In turn, the dollar is driving change and in doing so it’s making our economy leaner and stronger, forcing us to move more of our effort — more money, more equipment, more people — into the parts of our economy where we can create the greatest value.” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-01/aussie-to-stay-relatively-high-...
Cnbc.com
California needs to come up with more than $3 billion to avoid burning through its cash by March, according to the state controller, who urged borrowing and delaying some payments. “Assuming no additional revenue loss, erosion of borrowable internal funds, or significant spikes in spending, $3.3 billion of cash solutions are needed to address California’s liquidity needs during this period,” State Controller John Chiang said in a letter to the chairman and vice chairman of the Joint Legislative Budget Committee released on Tuesday. http://www.cnbc.com/id/46212105
Amazon.com reported quarterly earnings that beat Wall Street’s expectations, but its revenue fell short of forecasts on Tuesday, sending its shares lower in extended trading. The online retail giant posted fourth-quarter earnings excluding items of 38 cents per share, down from 91 cents in the year-earlier period. Revenue was $17.43 billion, a 35-percent increase from $12.95 billion a year ago.  Analysts had expected the Seattle-based company to report earnings excluding items of 17 cents per share on $18.25 billion in revenue. http://www.cnbc.com/id/46191172
Concerns over the size of United States debt reared their head once again as ratings agency Standard & Poor’s warned that health care costs for a number of highly-rated Group of 20 countries, including the U.S., could hurt growth prospects and harm their sovereign creditworthiness from the middle of this decade. S&P downgraded the United Statescredit rating for the first time ever in August of last year. http://www.cnbc.com/id/46202656
The European Central Bank won’t solve the euro zone’s debt crisis as long as the European Union behaves like a “dysfunctional” family, Bill Gross, Pimco founder and co-chief investment officer, told CNBC on Tuesday.  The main problem is the split between North and South Europe, Gross said: The northern countries have low debt and are export oriented, while the southern economies’ debt ratios are high and their economies are based more on domestic consumption. http://www.cnbc.com/id/46205597
Nytimes.com 
The European Central Bank may forgo future profits on its Greek bonds as efforts remain under way to fill a financial hole that has been obstructing a second bailout forGreece.  Talks among senior Europé n officials in Brussels ended Tuesday without any commitment from the central bank but with hopes still alive that the bank would agree to the deal.  Because the European Central Bank bought Greek bonds, with an estimated face value of 50 billion euros, ($65 billion) at a discount to their market price, it could enter into a deal that would cause it to give up future gains without taking a loss, said a European official, requesting anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/01/business/global/hopes-now-shift-to-ecb...
Foxbusiness.com
The Australian Industry Group – PwC Australian performance of manufacturing index rose 1.4 points to 51.6 in January, according to data out Wednesday. The increase was largely due to a rise in the delivery of inputs and a rise in inventories of finished goods, according to the survey. “The growth was underpinned by expansion in key sub-sectors such as food & beverages and transport equipment,” said Australian Industry Group Chief Executive, Heather Ridout. “Respondents cited ongoing global economic uncertainty and strong overseas competition as factors inhibiting growth in January,” she added. http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2012/01/31/australian-january-manufac...
USAtoday.com 
Eager to spend their growing disposable income, travelers from mainland China’s wealthy and rising middle classes are traversing the globe in search of iconic destinations they can cross off their bucket lists. That wanderlust has increasingly brought them to a dream destination, the USA, in recent years as travel restrictions on them eased. Despite occasional economic and political dust-ups between the two nations’ governments, a record number of Chinese visitors came to the U.S. in 2011.http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/travel/story/2012-01-31/Chinese...
The U.S. Census Bureau reported Tuesday that the nation’s homeownership rate fell to 66% in the fourth quarter, continuing a seven-year drop from a fourth-quarter peak of 69.2% in 2004. At the same time, U.S. home prices fell 1.3% in November from October and were 3.7% below 2010 levels, the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index indicates. http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/story/2012-01-31/home-pric...
BBC.co.uk 
Walt Disney’s expansion plans in India have received a big boost as it agreed to acquire a controlling stake in UTV, one of India’s biggest media companies. The move comes after India’s cabinet approved a proposal by Disney last month to buyout shares in UTV that it did not previously own. The companies did not disclose how much Disney was paying to acquire the stake. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16828451
Santander has revealed a 35% fall in annual profits after the group took extra provisions for deteriorating real estate assets in Spain. The bank announced a net profit of 5.35bn euros ($7.05bn; £4.48bn) for 2011, down from 8.18bn euros in 2010. It said it had made a 1.8bn euro provision against property exposure in Spain and had written off 600m euros relating to its businesses in Portugal. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16806206
Telegraph.co.uk
Germany is enjoying the greatest jobs boom in 20 years even as unemployment rises to post-EMU highs across southern Europe, stretching the euro’s North-South divide ever closer to breaking point. The latest Eurostat data shows that the two halves of the currency bloc have diverged dramatically. Germany’s jobless rate dropped to 5.5pc in December, the lowest since reunification in 1990, with even lower rates of 4.9pc in Holland and 4.2pc in Austria.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9052931/German-jobs-m...
Independent.co.uk
More quantitative easing likely after fall in money supply. The prospects of fresh action by the Bank of England to boost growth increased on Tuesday after Threadneedle Street released figures showing a contraction in the money supply and weak borrowing by both companies and households. News of a drying up of credit left City analysts confident that a fresh round of quantitative easing would be announced by the Bank’s nine-strong monetary policy committee when it meets next week.http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/jan/31/more-quantitative-easing-...
Smh.com.au
Australian house prices plunged by the most on record in 2011 as global economic uncertainty and concerns about its impact at home kept a lid on demand. An index measuring the weighted average of prices for established houses in eight major cities slid 4.8 per cent from a year earlier, according to the Australian B ureau of Statistics, the biggest calendar-year drop since the data began in March 2002. They fell 1 per cent in the three months to December from the previous quarter, when they retreated a revised 1.9 per cent. Economists had predicted a 0.6 per cent quarterly fall. http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/record-slump-in-house-prices-in-...
Crude fluctuated after confidence among US consumers unexpectedly dropped in January and Germany’s unemployment rate fell to a record low. Oil erased a 2.5 per cent gain as the Conference Board’s confidence index decreased to 61.1 from a revised 64.8 reading in December. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index also reversed an advance. Futures rose earlier as the Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency said Germany’s adjusted jobless rate slipped to 6.7 per  cent, the lowest level since records began in 1991.http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/oil-slides-on-weak-us-data-201202...
Xinhuanet.com
Tibet Airlines will launch three regular flights linking cities in the plateau region of Tibet with other Chinese cities this week in a move to meet growing market demand, a company spokesman said Tuesday. Of the new air routes, the Chengdu-Nyingchi flight will open Wednesday and be operated every Monday, Wednesday, Friday and Sunday, the Lhasa-Nyingchi flight will open Thursday and be operated every every Monday and Thursday, and the Chongqing-Nyingchi flight will open Thursday and be operated every Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday, the spokesman said. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2012-01/31/c_131384610.htm
The business outlook for the services and manufacturing sectors of Singapore in the first half remained weak, according to results of surveys released on Tuesday. The results of the latest business expectations survey by the Department of Statistics showed that all industries in the services sector were expecting a negative outlook for the first half of the year, except the recreation, community and personal services. The real estate sector fared the worst, with a net weighted 60 percent surveyed expecting less favourable business prospects. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/business/2012-02/01/c_131385208.htm
India’s economic growth has been revised down to 8.4 percent for 2010-11 fiscal year from the earlier estimate of 8.5 percent, said official data Tuesday. “The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at factor cost at constant prices in 2010-11 has registered a growth of 8.4 percent over the previous year,” said provisional data released by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation. GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in 2010-11 is estimated at 48.85954 trillion rupees (about 1 trillion U.S. dollars), which is 8.4 percent more than the previous year’s 45. 07637 trillion. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/business/2012-01/31/c_131384505.htm
Turkey’s exports saw a 18.5-percent year-on-year growth in 2011 to reach 134.9 billion U.S. dollars, Turkey’s statistics authority TurkStat said Tuesday. In an announcement posted on its official website, TurkStat said that Turkey’s imports in 2011 surged 29.8 percent year-on- year to reach 240.8 billion U.S. dollars. In 2010, Turkey’s exports stood at 113.8 billion U.S. dollars and its imports were 185.5 billion U.S. dollars. Moreover, in December 2011, Turkey’s exports were up 5.6 percent year-on-year to 12.4 billion U.S. dollars, while the imports rose 0.2 percent to 10.5 billion U.S. dollars. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/business/2012-01/31/c_131384760.htm
Cs.com.cn
China is mulling a new round of efforts to regulate the sizzling property market after the moves it imposed about a year ago to limit purchases of residential apartments effectively brought down prices, analysts said Tuesday. Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Jiang Weixin revealed that the ministry would complete a project to link databases of personal housing information concerning 40 major cities by the end of June, a measure designed to further curb house speculation, the analysts said. Since 2010, China has imposed a raft of measures to cool the property market — including tighter credit supply, higher down payments and limiting the number of homes that people can own. http://www.cs.com.cn/english/ei/201202/t20120201_3223813.html
The State Council, or China’s Cabinet, announced Tuesday that it will send drafts of the annual government work report to local governments and some central departments in order to solicit  opinions and get feedback. The decision was made at a work conference chaired by Premier Wen Jiabao, as representatives gathered to discuss the draft of the government work report which is to be delivered at the opening of the fifth session of the 11th National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s top legislature. Wen said China’s economy is moving toward the direction that has been laid out by the country’s macro-control policies, and the past year has seen relatively fast growth, stabilizing prices and improving livelihood in China. http://www.cs.com.cn/english/ei/201202/t20120201_3223796.html
Chairman of Tehran Chamber of Commerce Yahya Ale-Eshagh on Tuesday dismissed fears of a shortage of foreign exchange reserves in Iran, saying the country has 120 billion U.S. dollars and 907 tons of gold in reserves, the semi- official Mehr news agency reported. Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Ale-Eshagh said that Iran purchased the gold in recent years at an average price of 600 U.S. dollars per ounce and the current price of gold has almost tripled, said the report.  “We don’t have any shortage of foreign currencies or gold in the face of local demand,” he was quoted as saying. The chairman’s remarks came as the recent turmoil in Iran’s gold and currency market led to a sudden increase of over 10 percent in commodity prices and caused panic among the citizens. http://www.cs.com.cn/english/ei/201202/t20120201_3223657.html
The Washington-based World Bank Group cautioned Tuesday that global food prices were high and volatile, and that the world needed to remain vigilant to the trend. Global food prices declined eight percent between September and December of 2011 due to increasing supplies and uncertainty about the global economy, but still remained volatile and high with the 2011 annual index 24 percent higher than its average http://www.cs.com.cn/english/ei/201202/t20120201_3223655.html
Thehindu.com
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Tuesday announced a massive investment of Rs.1.40-lakh crore by 17 blue chip government undertakings in the forthcoming financial year (2012-13) in a bid to cope with the adverse global economic environment. Giving away the SCOPE Excellence awards for 2009-10 here, Mr. Singh said “public investment was particularly needed at a time when the country was facing a difficult global environment and looking to domestic drivers of growth.” Union Minister of Heavy Industries Praful Patel presided over the function. http://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/article2848234.ece
The Reserve Bank of India on Tuesday hinted at the possibility of another cut in the CRR (cash reserve ratio) during its mid-quarter monetary policy in March in case pressure on the liquidity situation persists till then.  Interacting with the media on the sidelines of a National Housing Board function here, RBI Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn said: “We are watching the liquidity situation … I think that decision [another cut in CRR] will be taken when we do our mid-quarter review … Having done one, I think the possibility of another is always on the table.” http://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/article2848235.ece
Economictimes.com
India’s manufacturing sector grew at its fastest pace in eight months in January as factory output surged the most on record on increased domestic and foreign demand, a business survey showed on Wednesday. The HSBC manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) , compiled by Markit, jumped to 57.5 from 54.2 in December. “Activity in the manufacturing sector rebounded again in January led by higher demand from both domestic and foreign clients, suggesting some recovery in sentiment in recent months,” said Leif Eskesen, economist at HSBC. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/indias-facto...
Fin24.com
South Africa’s trade account recorded a surplus of R4.7bn in December compared with an R8bn deficit in November, the South African Revenue Service said on Tuesday. Exports fell by 8.0% month-on-month to R63.0bn in December while imports plunged by 23.8% to R58.3bn.  Economists surveyed by Reuters expected a shortfall of R3bn for December but the data is volatile and thus hard to forecast. http://www.fin24.com/Economy/SAs-trade-account-in-surplus-20120131
Tehrantimes.com
The Iranian Oil Minister has said that international sanctions have not been effective on investments in Iran’s oil and gas industry, and that Iranian oil can not be excluded from international markets. Rostam Qasemi made the remarks in an interview with IRNA news agency in Tehran, saying that it is self-defeating for countries to impose oil sanctions against the Islamic Republic.  A law to be debated in Iran’s parliament on Sunday could halt exports of oil to the European Union as early as next week.http://www.tehrantimes.com/economy-and-business/94998-minister-sanctions...
Thetrader.se
This rather extreme prolonged Santa Rally has made people frustrated over the last weeks. The many conflicting themes of the Economy, the Euro mess, the collapse in volatility etc, is contributing to people’s frustration over where the market should be going. Currently we see great accumulation of a bigger move coming up due to “skewed” psychology of the market. Meanwhile some fundamentals from Hussman. Goat Rodeo – Appalachian slang for a chaotic, high-risk, or unmanageable scenario requiring countless things to go right in order to walk away unharmed. http://www.thetrader.se/2012/01/31/are-we-up-for-a-goat-rodeo/
 

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Sat, 04/21/2012 - 06:37 | 2363381 imarion
imarion's picture

U.S. economic data recently has shown signs of improvement, the government is actively creating jobs, consumer confidence has picked up. Nevertheless, the potential risks of the global economy can not be ignored. Europe, deleveraging measures being taken by various financial institutions will continue for a long time, which will provide economic growth putting pressure on the European economy will be facing a “mild recession” in the coming period of time, Europe needs to further integration of financial system and develop a clear growth strategy. Supply and weak demand growth, the recent U.S. economic performance is clearly worse than expected, “The current labor production rates are still below pre-crisis level”.

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