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No Nuts
I’m sick of the markets. If you want some erudite comments on the latest eco crap or some deep thoughts on when the EU will tank, go elsewhere today. I've got nothing erudite to say. So something different this A.M.
I live about an hour north of NYC. Not far from one of the big reservoirs. There is a lot of protected watershed property. Much more woods than people. I have all sorts of critters around. It’s not unusual for me to see a half-dozen deer on the lawn in the morning. There are flocks of wild turkeys. There are dozens of both black and white squirrels. Chipmunks everywhere. All these animals are dying.
I’ve been aware of something going on for about a month. This is not the first time that a mass death of animals has happened. Some years ago we had a rabies epidemic. It quickly moved from one animal group to another. It damn near wiped out the raccoons, skunks and possums. As the kill of these animals progressed varmints came in to clean up the dead. In just a few years the coyote population exploded. But nature had its way (as it always does). As they coyotes ate the diseased carrion they too became sick and died. The cycle ended when the animals all died.
For a year or so it was safe to put garbage out at night because the coons and skunks were gone. When the small animals died the big ones who ate them moved on. The coyotes left and folks started letting the cat out at night again.
The coyotes are back this year. I’ve heard them at night as they form packs to kill weak animals. They howl a horrible noise to scare their prey into confusion and fear. This time it’s different. Different animal groups are affected. It’s not rabies that’s the problem. The animals at risk don’t eat meat.
I didn’t think much of this until I happened to have a conversation with the fellow from Ecuador who was cleaning up my leaves. He says to me:
"No frutos secos esta anos."
I walked away thinking to myself, “No nuts?”
It took me a bit, but I finally got it. There are almost no acorns this year. No big healthy ones at all. The ones that you might find are the size of a pea. They contain no food, they’re just husks. And that's why the animals are stressed and the coyotes are back.
If you Google, “Missing acorns” you will see that there are chat rooms from garden types who have made note of the acorn issue. It seems to be contained in the North East this year (there is no actual data.) While looking around on the topic I found this interesting (and a bit eerie) article from 2008 in the Washington Post.
The same thing happened around the D.C. area 3 years ago. From the article:
The idea seemed too crazy to Rod Simmons, a measured, careful field botanist. Naturalists in Arlington County couldn't find any acorns. None. No hickory nuts, either. "We're talking zero. Not a single acorn. It's really bizarre."
A naturalist in Maryland found no acorns on an Audubon nature walk there. Ditto for Fairfax, Falls Church, Charles County, even as far away as Pennsylvania. There are no acorns falling from the majestic oaks in Arlington National Cemetery.
Starving, skinny squirrels eating garbage, inhaling bird feed, greedily demolishing pumpkins. Squirrels boldly scampering into the road. This year, experts said, many animals will starve.
Some of the scientists made light of the 2008 development:
"What's there to worry about?" said Alan Whittemire, a botanist at the U.S. Arboretum. "If you're a squirrel, it's a big worry. But it's no problem for the oak tree.”
Sure enough the next year acorns came back to Virginia. But obviously three years later the same thing is happening in a different region. Back in 08 the thinking was “Why worry”. But the thinking was also, “If this happens again we have something to worry about.”
"But if this were to continue another two, three, four years, you might have to ask yourself what's going on, whether it is an indication of something bigger."
Well, it’s happened again. We shall if there is anything to this. I suspect this might get broader attention in the media. It’s too weird not to get noticed. Anyone else missing their acorns this year?
Now you can go back to the stupid markets.
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I seldom respond to articles herein. I have much more to learn before entering those discussions. However, questions relating to natural cycles are well within my knowledge base. To answer your concern, nut trees have a very short pollination window. That pollination can be greatly disrupted by too little or too much wind. In forested areas, mast (nut) production is a fundamental source of fall and winter nutrition, directly for herbivores and omnivores and indirectly for carnivores. Your local fauna is well adapted to this cycle, with disturbing dieoffs in some years and amazing reproductive levels in others. Next spring you will likely be blessed with an explosion of flora taking advantage of their own enhanced reproductive opportunities.
Have a major question for you, BK, given that Bruce Krasting is a Swiss citizen and knows the Swiss frame of mind.
But first, just want to say that, what happens to nature and the animals may be much more important than what we humans do with regard to ourselves. It is quite worthy to post on what you wrote.
Putting together leads from various sources, some from here in ZeroHedge, and some from my EU contacts in Brussels, included.
Consider this possibility:
There may be a new Swiss - German currency shortly. Germany may be putting out failing, un-workable, un-sustainable ideas on purpose, because Germany is secretly planning to exit the euro before Greece does, and Germany is stalling participating in a euro plan when Germany knows it won't be there.
A super-strong Swiss - German currency which would soon be among the world's favourites.
The Swiss franc is already pegged to the euro, and if Germany, and perhaps some other northern countries leave the euro, the Swiss would obviously shift their peg to the new German money.
It all makes sense. It is cheaper for Germany to re-capitalise its own banks (which would collapse from the debt they hold in euros on the other countries), than it is for Germany to promise to pay for all of Europe to infinity.
Switzerland could help solve its own drastic problem of the upward pressure on the value of the Swiss franc, by buying a lot of German and maybe some other bonds to help re-capitalise German banks. The Swiss and new German currencies could stabilise together as a linked pair.
Germany getting ready to leave the euro, explains the German 'No' to most solution measures, why Germany is suggesting ridiculous solutions ... why Germany is exacerbating the crisis ... which Germany will shortly solve.
And this way the southern countries could keep the euro, the European central bank could inflate for them, they could print like Ben Bernanke, they could have cheaper currency to attract tourists and export, et cetera.
This is a fit-the-dots explanation for why Chancellor Angela Merkel and the German leadership are acting so strangely ... so obstructionist to possible solutions to the euro-zone ordeal ... saying things that rather makes things worse ... pretending to support ridiculous pipe dream plans for 'supervising' Europe ... offering up a laughable EFSF programme.
In the UK Telegraph, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has been suggesting this for quite a while, Germany leaving the euro as the best solution for everybody, leaving the southern countries with a currency deflation option to rescue themselves.
In a few days Germany will lead a meeting which will establish procedures by which countries could exit using the euro ... theoretically they have Greece in mind, but maybe indeed, Germany is secretly preparing its own exit, as already suggested here on ZeroHedge by Alexander Gloy of Lighthouse Investment Management.
It is of course unusual for Germany to be so bold in this way ... but maybe it is time for Germany to be bold again.
And it may be what the doctor ordered for Switzerland as well. Of course your thoughts here re the Swiss would be significant.
Kent County, Michigan: White oak acorns were the most abundent since 2003. O7 produced a small amount. They had been very sparse since then.
In my experience, acorn production is related to stress on the oak trees. When there is lots of rain and no late killing frosts,we get a lot in the upper midwest.
I have heard and read this one before ....
the usual thread of the discussion goes on to suggest
that this is the oak trees' way of dealing with the situation
when there are too many squirrels.
After all, the main purpose of acorns is to start new oak trees,
not to feed the squirrels.
Howerver, all my efforts to find direct evidence failed,acoprns were plentiful in every neighborhood I checked, across a few hundred miles.
Street myth?
Bruce, I'm in Hunterdon county, NJ about 100 air miles from you. We have been SOAKED with rain. Tonite the year's total is 60 inches, about 20 more than normal. That's got to be an explanation. Don't sweat it.
FWIW my black walnuts had a poor crop this year. The walnut mast is very unpredictable. However, I think they are putting all their energy into wood production as some of the smaller ones are 18-24 inches taller than they were in the spring!
Hardwood is like PM's. You only own it if you hold it, and it looks best when closely held.
Probably Monsatan's doing...
We're losing big trees like crazy here in Pennsylvania. Trees just snap off at base due to rotten heartwood ... only stump and roots remaining ... an obvious nourishment disruption.
Analysis of bark yields ~400 mcg/k of aluminum, 18 mcg barium, 113 mcg strontium, and 15 mcg of titanium. These chemcals weaken immune systems of plants and animals. Yes, trees have passive immune systems.
The source of these chemicals is chemtrails ... aerosols of chemical nanoparticles spread by airplanes.
<dupe>
Acorn crops are highly variable. For instance, see the US Forest Service website at:
http://www.na.fs.fed.us/pubs/silvics_manual/volume_2/quercus/alba.htm
"Seed Production and Dissemination- White oak can produce seeds prolifically, but good acorn crops are irregular and occur only every 4 to 10 years. Sometimes several years may pass without a crop. Acorn yields range from 0 to 500,000 acorns per hectare (202,000/acre) (7,22,28). This great variation in acorn production exists not only among isolated stands of oaks but also among individual trees within stands and from year to year."
Central Michigan: Your info. supports my observations. The White Oaks really dumped this year.
Anecdotal. Sad, but a localized observation.
Here in Mississippi, we have plenty of acorns. I remarked upon it to my wife last weekend. The squirrels are HUGE. Maybe it's the mild weather.
You guys had some God awful snow up there, it had to have an effect on animal populations. I trust the squirrels, chipmunks, deer, mice, skunks, and opossums will bounce back. They flourish near human habitation. Any endangered animals, not so good, but let's hope for the best. Take heart, things aren't so bad everywhere.
Tons of large acorns here in Southeast Michigan also, more walnuts than I've seen in a long time too......man do they make a mess....
I live in Cambridge Masachusetts. This is the city. The squirrels are frickin enormously fat. my girl actually thought one was a cat.
watch the deer
Bruce - I'm probably 30 minutes south of you in so. westchester and we had acorns. For what its worth...
I live in the city here in Texas and there are an unprecedented amount of dead birds along the roads with which I make my evening constitutionals. I write this up, in part, to our record drought (where water is plentiful within the city but food is absent), but more to the reduction in the animal control staff that once cleared such carrion. Staffing is so short that possum traps must be rented and then delivered back, animal intact, to the center as calls to mange pit bulls on the lose take up a majority of the remainig staffs time.
About a decade ago in the snow belt of upstate New York the deer were a plague. A combilation of mild winters and fewer hunters allowed their numbers to baloon to the point that there was no reproduction on the forest floor and the woods looked as though they had been given a haircut at shoulder level. Then came the coyotes. Their nighttime songs were not melodic, but stirred a visceral admiration. The deer were quickly returned to normal levels. Nature is cruel and disorderly in the short run but she brings things back to balance over time.
If you're worried about the wildlife in your neighbourhood, why don't you put out some feeders for the birds and squirrels? It helps the critters in lean years and bad winters, and watching the local wildlife acrobats at foraging is highly entertaining. Better than Dancing with American Idols any day.
So Bruce, how will the boys at GS play this out - issue a note telling clients to short nuts and go long lean hogs?
Or am I reading the market wrong........ again??
I hate coyotes.
I keep hoping one of the celebrity chefs will make eating coyotes cool and sell the banksters a bunch of Coyote Tartar in the posh Manhattan eateries. That way we can get rid of the damned things.
"I hate coyotes."
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Excellent post - dragging some ZHers back into the real world. Didn't know you were a country boy. The mast crop in northern California is good to adequate this year - just a cycle, Bruce - although it can be upsetting to watch stress in some of your favorites.
You could supplement...
We have had a few real bad years when I put out a few bales of feed hay, a flake at a time, for the deer -- yeah, yeah, I know, you ain't suppossed to do it, but I KNOW my deer, damnit!
You could probably put out a mast substitute.
Just sayin'
I prefer my wildlilfe to Wall Street low life, and like to have them around.
ACORN(z) protest potus. ;)
polish beet coffee ain't bad and easy to make with your beets.
I’m sick of the markets....
That says it all from a guy who prided himself for staying ahead of the curve...
Bruce, I can appreciate the loss of nuts. When I said "I do" about 18 years ago it began to happen to me too.......................
My property has about a dozen huge, old oak trees. Most are white oak but some are dwarf oak. (Dwarf refers to the size of the acorns, not the trees!) I've never had so many acorns as I've had this year. Yes, they are a pain as are the leaves, but I love these trees and I enjoy the fat squirrels that allow me to coexist among them.
I worry about now the weather will affect our plant life. I'm one of those people who believe we can't exist without healthy plants.
All production has come from plants
We have tons of them in North Carolina this year. Seriously. I live in the woods and there's just tons of them around here. And with the way things are going, I'm thankful because fat squirrels are tastier than skinny ones.
Lots of rabies in different parts of the country this year, too. Another factor in the Northeast ecosystem is bats. Look up white nose syndrome: it's wiping out entire colonies of bats which has an impact on the bugs that factor in pollination stream.
(ProMED.com is a great source for emerging infectious diseases in plants, animals and humans.)
I'm more concerned about the Brown Nose Syndrome so evident among the parrots in the corporate-controlled media, particularly on the financial channels, which is wiping out entire colonies of investors and savers as we speak.
One thing I noticed in th northeast for the last few years are the winter moths. They come out right about this time, will lay eggs and then green caterpillars will emerge in the spring and chew the shit out of many trees around here. Apparently, any tree that goes untreated for a few years (3 to 4) will just eventually die.
As far as acorns, I have not paid attention but now I will...there could be so many causes, but I wonder if these moths could have an impact on the acorn shortage, because a tree with not enough leaves, will not yeld much fruits.
No nuts? Dammit - bet Corzine has something to do with this!
I'll probably be Celente'd now on my Acorn Futures Contract!
It's possible that this is a natural cycle with the nuts, an evolutionary adaptation; that over the eons oaks and other nut-bearing trees have developed survival strategy. If oaks produced a consistently healthy crop of acorns every year, populations of nutloving animals would rise to the point where all the acorns would be eaten no matter how numerous. None would remain to grow into mighty oaks. During poor years, nut lovers decrease in numbers. Then comes a good year, when the trees produce far more nuts than the animals can consume. Nuts are left to germinate and renew the forest.
This may also have to do with the lack of fire which would trigger a tree to produce more nuts to fill the vacant land and relatively reduced population of nutlovers.
Go to California - lotsa nuts out there, fruits as well.
...
What's missing. Also, what is rearing?
Ants. Underestimate this if you must. Generally ants are a nuisance. Ants aren't a problem until they are a problem. Not unlike the credit crisis, once the problem rears its ugly head the damage is already done.
And the solutions? The parallels with the debt crisis couldn't be any closer. What is the key difference? Humans and their lies will always succumb to nature. Ants?
This is an epidemic which started in Washington D.C. decades ago. No one there has any nuts, period. Man, or beast. It was just a matter of time before the disease started to spread, carried to other states by the migratory animal Lobbyinskis Stealitalllus. Also an inhabitant of Washington D.C. for most of the year. As the holiday season is upon us, Lobbyinskis Stealitallus returns home to breed, and deposit it's harvest of stored FRN's. Hence, the spread of the dreaded no nuts disease. Pray you don't come down with a case youself, or you will turn into a spineless lackey and get fucked at every opportunity.
Excellent +1
Umm hello, mother nature regulates herself in some pretty interesting ways and it takes oh I dont know 100 years to truly figure out why..
Some people forget that were part of mother nature also and she is constantly trying to kill us off properly.
Honeybee's, Acorns, massive brid deaths etc..
There are only 2 contributing factors to anything that happens on earth, Nature and Human nature..
One is consistently trying to regulate or fix things and the other.. well you get the drift.
One works well when left alone and the other does not.
Bruce,
Sometimes pests or environmental stresses come around for a year and then go away again. Usually stuff like that isn't studied unless it can settle down into a predictable pattern. Otherwise right around the time universities get their research departments geared up to conduct experiments & take samples the phenomena is gone again.
I live in northern Montana, during the last few years the wheat farmers around here have been having problems with a pest called sawfly. Not a lot is known about sawfly besides its breeding cycle because -- besides the last few years -- other reported outbreaks of it have been confined to a few years in the 1990s in Montana (after which it disappeared for reasons unknown, right as the universities had gotten grants, research programs, etc. set up) and an outbreak in California in the 1960s, and maybe an outbreak in the 1980s in Idaho (although I might be confusing that 1980s outbreak with a talk I heard on a different insect pest).
As you noted, the same problem with acorns happened in the Virginia area in 2008, and then went away. While it's happening again in your area in 2011, there probably won't be that much media attention (or academic study of it) unless it happens for the next year or two.
Glancing through the comments, I see a number of other commenters are reporting bumper acorn crops in their areas, so it's nice to see it's currently a localized problem and one that doesn't seem to be killing off the oak trees themselves. It looks very doubtful this will turn into an oak equivalent of Dutch elm disease or chestnut blight.
My area in Ohio around cincinnati has no red bud pods or white oak nuts. I blame the rains in April. With 28 days of rain there was not much chance to pollinate anything then. Not a biologist so I am not sure that is to blame but it all I can come up with.
I am a biologist, and ill-timed rain was my first thought. Rain can knock the pollen off the flowers, or prevent air-borne pollen from reaching it's destination in another tree. Many of these trees only pollinate during a narrow seasonal window, one bad turn can ruin the crop for that year.
But Bruce also reports that the few acorns he sees are small. My feeling on that is that there was a tiny crop of nuts of varying sizes (which itself is normal). The large, healthy acorns are quickly found and devoured and the small acorns are being ignored by hungry animals for now, so that is what he is finding on the ground. It's a lot of work to break into an acorn, animals that eat them are quite clever about diverting their energy into fruitful pursuits rather than wasting time (and energy) trying to get at nothing.
These are really important details. Keep in mind folks that as weather patterns start to shift away from the norms many plants and animals that need certain reliable conditions in order to reproduce -- won't.
The same thing started happening in northen California a few decades back. The famous foothill oak trees were not being replaced by new trees from seedlings. In fact, there were no seedlings at all under and around these gigantic oaks. In this case there were lots of acorns, but no recruitment. Wasn't hard to figure out what was happening though; cattle, sheep and horses allowed to roam the hills grazing where biting the seedlings off. As a direct result of animal husbandry practices the foothill oaks are probably doomed in many places, victim of the laws of unintended consequences.
It's good to keep an eye on things in nature. Nature is always trying to tell us something. We need to listen because just like the squirrels and oaks we are part of nature too. And someday we might be the ones finding ourselves in conditions sub-optimal for replacement reproduction.
> Now you can go back to the stupid markets.
Perhaps we need a futures market in acorns?
Seems like we have a fairly typical yield in central NY State. Unfortunately I have now squirrels living in my walls. Been finding acorn stashes in the basement lately.
You sure they are not mice? Put out a few mouse traps and see what happens.
Meanwhile, in the Midwest, I've got the largest crop of acorns I've ever seen. My yard is nothing but mature oaks, and some trees are producing golf-ball size nuts. I pick them up by the tubful, and my neighbor makes bacon out of them. It's so bad in places, you can't even walk.
"my neighbor makes bacon out of them"
How?
Fuel for the smokehouse, would be my guess. Nobody actually eats acorns anymore.
double
Pigs will I bet, I've never had a pig but always wanted one. When the acorns fall off the tree, let the pig run around and eat em up. Voila! Bacon!