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Now That Greece Has Defaulted, the Default Dominos Are Coming Fast

Phoenix Capital Research's picture





 

Now that Greece has defaulted (and it was a default) I believe that in the coming weeks we will see other PIIGS countries line up for defaults. Indeed, we are already seeing hints of this:

 

Portugal, Spain urge G20 members to help ease crisis

 

Spain and Portugal said on Saturday the euro zone's debt crisis is a global problem, calling on the United States and other G20 powers to help contain the fallout.

 

Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero urged the G20 countries least affected by the crisis to provide "urgent stimulus plans" to shield the global economy.

 

Europe's debt crisis looks set to dominate the summit of Group of 20 leading economies in France from Nov. 3-4.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/29/eurozone-g20-portugal-idUSN1E79S03020111029

 

Merkel: Must prevent others from seeking hair cuts

 

Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Friday it was important to prevent others from seeking debt reductions after European Union leaders struck a deal with private banks to accept a nominal 50 percent cut on their Greek government debt holdings.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/28/us-eurozone-germany-merkel-idUSTRE79R3NL20111028

 

Now that a precedent has been set for debt defaults, other nations will soon follow Greece into debt restructuring. This is where things will begin to get really interesting for the EU.

 

While Greece is already presenting serious problems for the European Union, it is Italy that will prove to ultimately break the Euro’s back.

 

Italy’s GDP is $2.05 trillion, making it the third largest economy in the EU and the EU’s biggest financial headache. It has the second worst Debt to GDP ratio in Europe (behind Greece) and the third largest bond market in the world (behind Japan and the US).

 

In plain terms, Italy is a HUGE problem for the financial system. And it’s only going to be getting worse. Indeed, Italy’s reality is already far worse than most realize today.

 

When you throw in unfunded liabilities, Italy’s REAL Debt to GDP ratio is north of 360%.  In order for Italy to meet ALL future liabilities, it would need to have an amount equal to nearly 10% of its GDP sitting in a bank collecting interest FOREVER.

 

Suffice to say, Italy doesn’t have that cash. And based on its debt maturation cycle I expect we’ll see an Italian default within the next six months. Indeed, no matter what happens with Greece, Italy will make sure that the EU in its current form no longer exists within the next year.

 

In the next 14 months alone, Italy needs to roll over an amount of debt equal to over 30% of its GDP ($615 billion). When you add in NEW debt issuance to meet Italy’s deficit, the number balloons up to 40% of GDP or $820 billion.

 

The problem with this is that investors are quickly waking up to the fact that Italy is BROKE. With a GDP growth rate of 1.3% and an aging population, Italy’s economy is in shambles.

 

In this environment, appetite for Italian bonds is collapsing, resulting in higher interest rates on Italian bonds, making Italy’s debt payments even larger (each new percentage point in interest rates means $4.1 billion more in funding costs for Italy in 2012).

 

            Italy at heart of crisis as borrowing costs climb

 

Italy's borrowing costs jumped to record levels Friday, underlining its vulnerability at the heart of the euro zone debt crisis and skepticism about whether the struggling government of Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi can deliver vital reforms.

 

The 6.06 percent yield paid at an auction of 10-year bonds was the highest since the launch of the euro, and not far from the level reached before the European Central Bank intervened in August to cap Rome's borrowing costs by buying Italian debt.

 

www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/28/us-italy-berlusconiidUSTRE79R0ZV20111028

 

Indeed, by many accounts, the only reason Italy hasn’t already staged a failed bond auction is because the ECB has been aggressively intervening and buying Italian bonds.

 

In plain terms, if it were up to the market alone, Italy would have already defaulted. And yet… Italy is somehow going to find investors to buy up $800+ billion worth of its debt?

 

So Italy will be defaulting. And it will be defaulting sooner rather than later. The question all investors must ask themselves is: what happens when Italy defaults?

 

Global exposure to Italian debt is north of $860 billion. This is over THREE TIMES the exposure banks have to Greece… and we’ve already seen the impact that situation has had on the markets.

 

Regarding exposure to Italian bonds, European banks comprise 90% or $782 billion. As Bank of America Merrill Lynch notes, foreign bank claims on Italy are higher than for any of the other PIIGS countries.

 

The significance of this cannot be overstated. Indeed, it was $3.2 billion in Italian bond exposure that took down MF Global.

 

More and more, it looks like the EU will be broken up in the coming weeks. When it is this market rally will collapse. And the ensuing carnage will make 2008 look like a joke.

 

So if you have not already taken steps to prepare for systemic failure, you NEED to do so NOW. We're literally at most a few months, and very likely just a few weeks from Europe's banks imploding.

On that note, if you’re looking for specific ideas to profit from this mess, my Surviving a Crisis Four Times Worse Than 2008 report can show you how to turn the unfolding disaster into a time of gains and profits for any investor.

 

Within its nine pages I explain precisely how the Second Round of the Crisis will unfold, where it will hit hardest, and the best means of profiting from it (the very investments my clients used to make triple digit returns in 2008).

 

Best of all, this report is 100% FREE. To pick up your copy today simply go to: http://www.gainspainscapital.com and click on the OUR FREE REPORTS tab.

 

Good Investing!

 

Graham Summers

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:44 | Link to Comment Ol Man
Ol Man's picture

Spain and Portugal said on Saturday the euro zone's debt crisis is a global problem, calling on the United States and other G20 powers to help contain the fallout.

 

Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero urged the G20 countries least affected by the crisis to provide "urgent stimulus plans" to shield the global economy.

 

They aren't worried about the 'global economy'...

 

Their worried about keeping their phoney baloney jobs...

 

Harrumph....Harrumph....Harrumph....

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:33 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So Greece debt holders get a haircut, but Merkel says 'Thats it, no more haircuts'...what is she delusional? Greece is only the snowflake on the tip of the debt iceberg!

Debt haircuts by GUILLOTINE next!!

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:12 | Link to Comment tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

fuck you Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero....you and your bankster cohorts brought your country to bankruptcy and now you want the rest of the world to bail you out for your treacher? fuck you asshole.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:02 | Link to Comment ddtuttle
ddtuttle's picture

Check out 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-17/merkel-rejects-french-calls-to-deploy-ecb-as-crisis-backstop-on-euro-debt.html

 The ECB is the only way to save the EMU now, and the Germans are saying "nein".  So my reading of this is that Merkel has realized the EU is unsavable, and is determined Germany will not get dragged down when it goes.  Unleasing the ECB now would just encumber Germany unecessarily.  This isn't about memories of Wiemar, this about survival. 

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:41 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

So is THIS a credit event or not?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 19:19 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

Greece is still sucking at the teat of Euro system and asking desperately for more.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:39 | Link to Comment NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Wierd how quiet everyone has been on Spain...China style collapse coming in Spain but it has managed to stay out of the limelight.  Reality is that it is somewhat likely in my mind that we wake up and find that the Fed has dumped $800b into the ECB and will sell it to us as Paulson did...to prevent the collapse and they are sure that they will end up getting all of our taxpayer money back....

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:31 | Link to Comment Elwood P Suggins
Elwood P Suggins's picture

Hopefully a Phoenix Capital default will occur momentarily.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:31 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Why wouldn't countries who haven't defaulted at all yet get a even bigger haircut on their debt? To protect them and offer it as a loyalty gift for not defaulting?

Why doesn't germany get a 50% debt haircut? Belgium? Holland? France?

Why give it to the poor countries?

Didn't we keep African countries as debt slaves for these last 6 decades?

 

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:01 | Link to Comment bill1102inf
bill1102inf's picture

LOL, Greece didn't default

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:59 | Link to Comment my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

Here is what CNBC is saying:

"


Instead of being hurt by the European debt crisis, US banks could actually end up benefitting from the turmoil across the Atlantic, analyst Dick Bove said."

LMAO!!!  Is that why MF is so F'ed?

 

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:34 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

CNBC is such a bunch of shameless whores.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:46 | Link to Comment spartan117
spartan117's picture

Isn't most of Italy's debt held internally?  Meaning they can raise taxes to pay off the debt.  It's almost a wash for them from this perspective.  If the debt is held externally, like the USA, it'll be a different story as the citizens of that country would experience a lowered standard of living.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 16:17 | Link to Comment markar
markar's picture

supposedly over $700 bil of Italy's  $2 trill in debt is held by foreign banks. One French bank (BNP?) allegedly holds $400 bill alone.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 15:06 | Link to Comment Watson
Watson's picture

I agree.

Also, (Northern) Italy has a substantial manufacturing sector, selling goods all over the world on style, not price.  At least in theory, if Italy fixed up its tax collection, it could get out of the hole.  Further, Italy didn't have a real-estate bubble and bust.

But no-one seems to look at Spain.  No manufacturing worth speaking about, just agriculture, tourism and a *very* big real estate bust.

After all the ECB intervention, Italian yields were down on the day.

But Spain's were up.  Spain (and its banks) have had it.

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