• Steve H. Hanke
    05/04/2016 - 08:00
    Authored by Steve H. Hanke of The Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke. A few weeks ago, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) sprang a surprise. It announced that a...

The Only, and I Mean the Only, Investment/Research House To Warn Of An Apple Miss Is Vindicated!!!

Reggie Middleton's picture




 
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Wed, 10/19/2011 - 23:51 | 1791466 hotkarlandthecl...
hotkarlandtheclevelandsteamers's picture

Is that an Obama rally?

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 17:23 | 1790366 fswalker
fswalker's picture

You're calling for a margin collapse after one outragiously high estimate was missed?? You're just another wannabe guru beating his chest in hindsight, trying to take credit for a call you made 1 YEAR ago! Dude your timing is off horribly. If anyone listened to you at the time and bet the house on it they would be homeless by now. What is it that you're actually proud of? The fact apple finally missed earnings by a slight margin (for the 1st time in years) or that you've managed to highlight the difference between two competing mobile Os' ?

 

The fact AAPL shares tumbled highlight the fearce competitive nature of the markets and not that of a so called mismanaged company whos loosing market share. Every man and his dog was long on AAPL. Who was providing buy side liquidity to the last minute chumps trying to get a piece of the action? It sure as hell wasnt your average mum n dad investor. And how do these long term heavy weight bulls make money in a one sided market? Take a look at recent price action on a gold chart and you'll see. 

I am far from an apple fan, as a matter of fact i absolutely hate everything apple stands for as far as their eco system goes,  however the same cant be said about their shares. It has had an outrageously good run from pre $100 levels but like all instuments, the longer the runup the more volatility one should expect.

 

Learn to differentiate between volatility vs. trend reversal and hopefully you manage to keep the sheeple around you a bit longer.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:50 | 1790271 Dburn
Dburn's picture

Holy Shit Reggie, why the focus on this stock? They have a miss even as they knew their founder was dying but the new 4S was ringing up like crazy. The quarter ended on Sept 24th. They have a 5% down day and you act like all of your research is vindicated. Hell find some real meat like the Chinese stocks or post a analysis of why the banks marking their debt to market produced a profit where there was none via operating results.

If APPL fails , it's not a systemic risk. Why not throw that apple over your shoulder since everyone on here already knows nothing goes up forever and focus on what Armageddon looks like when the banks run out of accounting tricks and Europe slides head deep into the quicksand

 

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:32 | 1790232 kevinearick
kevinearick's picture

I geuss that depends upon your definition of investment/research house ...

Watch out for high anxiety.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:32 | 1790230 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Reggie, we get it. Tone it down a little and stop patting yourself on the back. Enough.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:55 | 1790292 Freddie
Freddie's picture

What is with the pictures?  It reminds me of the Tom Vu video where he is pitching a real estate course.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnda41lj6go

He is passing my street/canal in his video circa 1986.

 

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:22 | 1790198 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Bullish on aapl when angela merkel grows a pair of ballz..until then, not so much.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:28 | 1790225 Fukushima Sam
Fukushima Sam's picture

Apple's ecosystem is closed and centrally controlled, this is it's long-term Achilles heel.  Apple has traditionally won market share through innovation into a new market segment, then held share through central control of the innovation and secrecy.  With Jobs gone their innovation will slip and their competitors' open ecosystems will dominate.  It is just a matter of time.  Some will say that one person cannot be that important to a company, but they are wrong.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:14 | 1790188 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Island reversal and a gravestone doji on the AAPL chart. First time for this since this bull run started. I wonder if the AAPL chart might soon look like NFLX.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:11 | 1790158 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Earnings are always great at TOPS.. nice work Reg, though it took a Year and 200 points in AAPL for the Mkt to catch up with you.  :)

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:56 | 1790131 Hannibal
Hannibal's picture


New European Bank Regulations Kick Ass..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSi899uhyQM

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:51 | 1790117 gatorontheloose
gatorontheloose's picture

again 10,000 words too many.

I am illustrating exactly how vulnerable Apple is to
either a compression of margin on the iPhone or a slow down in sales.
 

objects in the rear view and all....

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 15:36 | 1798240 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

iPhone 4S sales are up, pre-sold waiting lists have never been longer and there's no drop in retail price (so no margin compression to date)

Rather than Apple being "vulnerable" I'd say to date it's all been 100% about Reggie being hysterical (seeing things and trumpeting things that ain't happening)

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:21 | 1789988 Tsunami Wave
Tsunami Wave's picture

Reggie Middleton > Reggie Bush

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:56 | 1789894 spekulatn
spekulatn's picture


I pulled AAPL's transcript  from last July. As usual Wall Street gets it wrong. The games continue.

 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 

 

Apple Reports Third Quarter Results All-Time Record Revenue and Earnings

iPhone Sales Grow 142 Percent; iPad Sales Grow 183 Percent 

CUPERTINO, California—July 19, 2011—Apple® today announced financial results for its fiscal 2011 third quarter ended June 25, 2011. The Company posted record quarterly revenue of $28.57 billion and record quarterly net profit of $7.31 billion, or $7.79 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $15.70 billion and net quarterly profit of $3.25 billion, or $3.51 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 41.7 percent compared to 39.1 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 62 percent of the quarter’s revenue.

The Company sold 20.34 million iPhones in the quarter, representing 142 percent unit growth over the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 9.25 million iPads during the quarter, a 183 percent unit increase over the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 3.95 million Macs during the quarter, a 14 percent unit increase over the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 7.54 million iPods, a 20 percent unit decline from the year-ago quarter.

“We’re thrilled to deliver our best quarter ever, with revenue up 82 percent and profits up 125 percent,” said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO. “Right now, we’re very focused and excited about bringing iOS 5 and iCloud to our users this fall.”

“We are extremely pleased with our performance which drove quarterly cash flow from operations of $11.1 billion, an increase of 131 percent year-over-year,” said Peter Oppenheimer, Apple’s CFO. “Looking ahead to the fourth fiscal quarter of 2011, we expect revenue of about $25 billion and we expect diluted earnings per share of about $5.50.”

 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 

AAPL reported  $28.3B in revs and earnings of $7.03.

 

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:24 | 1790215 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Good post, FACTS ALERT!

 

Hey Reggie, you do realize apple just sold 4M iphones in one fucking weekend!

Hold off the touchdown dance big guy.  This is NOT over.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:33 | 1789796 Grinder74
Grinder74's picture

I'm curious: were all the people who disagreed with Reggie labeled "racist"?  Or does that only apply to the half-white Bumbler-in-Chief?

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:34 | 1789744 Pitchman
Pitchman's picture

Your calls have acted as 'HIGH ALERTS' in the realm of public service announcements. It is then up to the people to look further into the situation.  Like the Occupy (OWS) movement...

“It is hard to free fools from the chains they revere.”- Voltaire 

AND

“The most potent weapon of the oppressor is the mind of the oppressed.” Steven Biko

See: Chris Hedges: On Civil Disobedience & What Is Capitalism

OWS may be the most important social movement in America's recent history.  To save the Republic and perhaps yourselves, it is time to get on the right side of it.

Reggie; Your coverage of the protestors was excellent.  Please do more!

- Inflection Point


Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:17 | 1789731 GottaBKiddn
GottaBKiddn's picture

You've been right all along Reg, Keep on bangin".

What will eventtually kill the "company without debt"? You guessed it, debt. That's right, global debt will ensure that the world cannot afford to buy over-priced tacky tech. Just like the compact japanese cars back in the fifties, the market will simply fall away. Like the balloon of style and prestige, it will collapse and wither. Most of the people who stand in line to buy this gaudy waste of money won't be able to afford the phone service. Then the phone and all it's accessories can sit on a shelf like a shrine from the past. In a nutshell, lack of "jobs" will be the worm in the apple.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:07 | 1798405 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

throwing stones in glasshouses is not wise mate... you ought to consider your rounds before you fire that pea shooter of yours.. let me help you:

"You've been right all along Reg.."  Er, no Reggie hasn't, he's been wrong all along to date on shorting Apple instead of the worse performing Google shares. Fact.

"..global debt will ensure that the world cannot afford to buy over-priced tacky tech"  Global debt will also ensure Googles fleecing operation (online Ads) suffers major revenue cut and Googles business model also gets hammered. Regards "tacky" you are referring to Goos array of cheap tacky iPhone cribs/copies aren't you? You're obviously not a design officianado of Apples cool, functional, design simplicity... ok we've got you down as as a Goo peanut

"..stand in line to buy this gaudy waste of money .." Yep notice people do stand in line for Apples. That's apposed Goos desperate biz model of flogging their also-ran copies cheap as chips because nobody lines up for them. nobody is ever 'Wowed' by Goo gear, like Microshite. The brand is forgettable and worthless. They require monopolisation of the retail (telecoms) channels to force their crap down consumers throats (see endless staged muck-raking campaigns against competitors like Blackberry and RIM)  

And regards Apples being "gaudy" you're making my brain ache with the stupidity of answering your ignorant garbage. As for Apples being a "waste of money" compared to Microshites offerings which a 1/3rd the price but barely last a year as they collapse in bugs and viruses Apple products are the best investment you could ever make. Goo could hardly be a waste of money as they have to give away their 3rd rate copies for free, desperate corporate sluts that they are

"..all it's accessories can sit on a shelf like a shrine from the past."  I was only considering that the other day as my girlfriend bought another couple of accessories (a 'Piggy' speaker for her iPhone which punches out a sound that would make most Hi-Fi's blush and a svelt new rubberised cover for her MacBook). It's an industry in itself. Another leg (revenue stream) to stand on which Google hasn't got.

Googles a bit of a hop-a-long, copy-cat, also-ran, legless, cheap tart then..

Compared to leader of the pack, smooth, cool, uber-reliable highly profitable Apple

Next time you throw stones in a glasshouse, try not to smash the place up and come out looking like a bloodied Freddie Kruger victim goofball

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:31 | 1789529 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Reggie knows how to draw a crowd...

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 12:57 | 1789413 NetDamage
NetDamage's picture

Well done Reggie. Hope you get laid tonight for free!

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Db7pKjUrNXQ&t=1m03s

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 12:36 | 1789343 davepowers
davepowers's picture

If Reggie would spend more time with the forma

 

tting of hi

s articles then more pePLE

would READ THE

M

as it is, I feel like a hounddog in the middle of a briar field by the time I'm half way thru one of them... I just want to lay down and give up.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 12:26 | 1789302 hotkarlandthecl...
hotkarlandtheclevelandsteamers's picture

Congrats Reggie now if it drops another 40% it will be back to the price you started bashing it.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 12:07 | 1789204 hannah
hannah's picture

....a broken clock is right once a day.....!

 

come on reggie. you act like you know something that other intelligent dont...that a bubble wont burst. of course apple stock will go down at some point.

ok lets let me be the genius....the world financial system with a quadrillion in bad derivatives will collapse....gee is that breaking news. the hard part is stating WHE N IT WILL DO IT....!

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 11:58 | 1789170 PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

And you can always ask Siri if Reggie was right....

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 11:58 | 1789166 PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

Let me know if you going to have a party in MIami.

As for Apple.... i would give them another year for strong performance. And if for any reason thery decide to turn iphone into the bank... they have plenty of cash.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 12:12 | 1789157 caerus
caerus's picture

great job reggie...also you have a hell of a vertical

p.s. shorting wynn into earnings

bonam fortunam

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 12:28 | 1789309 piceridu
piceridu's picture

I promise to never use Facebook for the rest of my life.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:14 | 1798435 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

you've got to be a bit of a fuking twat not to buy Apples ...buying anything else is like jumping over the Berlin Wall to buy the Trabbant (a pile of monopolistic crap)

Google and Microshite stink 

 

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 11:38 | 1789065 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"apples and oranges" so to speak. Android and I-phones aren't involved in some manichean struggle in which all must die. That's called wall street actually. Apple already sports a low p/e with a cool 70 billion on the balance sheet. They missed...for now. As the girls like to tell me "all part of the upgrade cycle." google on the other hand is acting like Babe Ruth "inventing the home run." I feel like Phil Jackson watching his diamond and one "work for the coach" when the keep blowing away expectations cuz "they get it." don't be evil is one thing...but being good is a sight to behold indeed.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 11:30 | 1789032 Bub Ba
Bub Ba's picture

Reggie, which one are you?

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 11:13 | 1788969 notadouche
notadouche's picture

Congrats Reggie!!!!!  Of course you first brought that up when the stock was at about 190 but let's not bring that part up and just party hard!!!!!!

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 11:18 | 1788963 spekulatn
spekulatn's picture

I pulled AAPL's transcript  from last July. As usual Wall Street gets it wrong. The games continue.

 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 

 

Apple Reports Third Quarter Results All-Time Record Revenue and Earnings

iPhone Sales Grow 142 Percent; iPad Sales Grow 183 Percent 

CUPERTINO, California—July 19, 2011—Apple® today announced financial results for its fiscal 2011 third quarter ended June 25, 2011. The Company posted record quarterly revenue of $28.57 billion and record quarterly net profit of $7.31 billion, or $7.79 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $15.70 billion and net quarterly profit of $3.25 billion, or $3.51 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 41.7 percent compared to 39.1 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 62 percent of the quarter’s revenue.

The Company sold 20.34 million iPhones in the quarter, representing 142 percent unit growth over the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 9.25 million iPads during the quarter, a 183 percent unit increase over the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 3.95 million Macs during the quarter, a 14 percent unit increase over the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 7.54 million iPods, a 20 percent unit decline from the year-ago quarter.

“We’re thrilled to deliver our best quarter ever, with revenue up 82 percent and profits up 125 percent,” said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO. “Right now, we’re very focused and excited about bringing iOS 5 and iCloud to our users this fall.”

“We are extremely pleased with our performance which drove quarterly cash flow from operations of $11.1 billion, an increase of 131 percent year-over-year,” said Peter Oppenheimer, Apple’s CFO. “Looking ahead to the fourth fiscal quarter of 2011, we expect revenue of about $25 billion and we expect diluted earnings per share of about $5.50.”

 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 

AAPL reported  $28.3B in revs and earnings of $7.03.

 

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 18:00 | 1790532 myne
myne's picture

$7 a share and they're $300+ a share?! Bahahaha!

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 10:53 | 1788879 stkboy
stkboy's picture

I am always amazed at your terrific analysis, be it apple, google, banks or coutries.

Great job Reggie

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 10:47 | 1788850 lamont cranston
lamont cranston's picture

The Law of Diminishing Marginal Returns brings everyone back to the norm. Losing your company savior surely doesn't help. Leadership by committee will not be leadership. Politboro West, IMO.

20 years ago, who would have ventured that Kodak would be RIP? 99.99% of analysts felt that the larger the bank, the better. Where'd that logic get us?

Plus ca change...AAPL will be no exception.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 17:03 | 1790321 Freddie
Freddie's picture

+1

Reversion to the mean - law of large numbers - trees grow to the sky.  All the same idea.

 

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 10:46 | 1788846 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

You've had this pegged for months!!

 

Way to go!!

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 10:44 | 1788818 g
g's picture

Way to go Reg. Now all the apple fanatics will come and trash this post. fuck apple.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:21 | 1798463 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

 

fuck goofball and fuck microshite

you've got to be a peanut brained retard hiding under a paper bag (because you're so bug ugly) to think the greatest company in America for the last 10 years (that'll be Apple bagface) is worth slating

GFY while you're at it loser

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 10:37 | 1788791 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Good call Reggie.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 10:35 | 1788782 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

You rock reggie.

But keynes observed it is better to fail conventionally than succeed unconventionally. You will never have the fame and fortune of those who fail conventionally.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 10:15 | 1788675 ptolemy_newit
ptolemy_newit's picture

I just cant wait for my dividend check?

 

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 10:45 | 1788619 wang (not verified)
wang's picture

The Cult of Apple is a formidable force

as (was) the cult of Blackberry

 

Just watched a cult member on Bloomberg, Andy (Andrea) Cunningham, who  explained (with a straight face) that Steve Jobs replacement will be the collective of those who worship  Apple products

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 09:57 | 1788586 Cone of Uncertainty
Cone of Uncertainty's picture

Apple stock will be  up by the end of the day.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:18 | 1790195 d00daa
d00daa's picture

NICE FUCKING CALL GENIUS!

AAPL retests 200ema within a week.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 12:28 | 1789311 Cone of Uncertainty
Cone of Uncertainty's picture

Now down -3.5%

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