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Playing on Iran’s Home Court: The Great Strait of Hormuz Test
Playing on Iran’s Home Court: The Great Strait of Hormuz Test
Courtesy of Russ Winter of Winter Watch at Wall Street Examiner
Any good armchair general with a good search engine and time on his hands can figure out in a hurry that the song and dance about Iran being unable to close the Strait if Hormuz for long is just a plain crock. Worse than that. Yet, this big Orwellian lie persists, so I want to set the record straight. Iran has the capability of not only closing the Strait for some time, but creating a world of hurt for the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet.
Iran possesses a build-up of anti-ship weapons called Sunburn missiles, which it has procured from Russia and China over the last decade. These are top-notch weapons developed by the Russians as a low-cost challenge to the expensive, tech-heavy weaponry of the U.S., and specifically the aircraft carrier task force. A conflict, which I now assign a high probability to [see Scenario for an Israel Attack on Iran], is going to be a huge test of a global-naval doctrine that Russia and China will watch with tremendous interest. Iran's mix of anti-ship missiles (Sunburns, Onyxs, home produced, etc) is an unknown, but I think they are armed to the teeth. The big question: How many of these weapons does Iran have? I would suggest thousands, and that this is the real show.
Given that U.S. crony logic seems to be about squandering money on weapons in the military-industrial complex, I fear for sailors and marines on the 5th Fleet. Don’t get me wrong, the US Navy is professional, but the Strait doesn’t allow for the normal defense in depth available in open seas, in fact it offers the Iranians a cross fire setup or triangulation (see map of Strait below) . If you read discussions on various military sites, there is a lively debate on American ship defense system like the Aegis. However, almost nobody claims this to be fully protective against ship strikes. And an oil tanker, no way. It is important that the US is working on new generation lasar defense to counter these missiles, however they are still in development. This puts added pressure for Iran to have this fight now, not later. The following is from ”Russian Military Equality Network. (I have cleaned up the English a bit.]
U.S. Navy Pacific Commander Admiral Timothy Keating said that due to lack of sufficient funds for the procurement of simulated target missile defense system, the U.S. Navy can not now afford to fight “the club” category of supersonic anti-ship missiles. It is reported that the U.S. military that is used to simulate the “club” missile target missile is still being developed, and is expected to be put into use in 2014.
The Sunburn is perhaps the most lethal anti-ship missile in the world, designed to fly as low as 9 feet above ground/water at more than 1,500 miles per hour (mach 2+). The missile uses a violent pop-up maneuver for its terminal approach to throw off Phalanx and other U.S. anti-missile defense systems. Given their low cost, they’re perfectly suited for close quarter naval conflict in the bathtub-like Persian Gulf.
The Sunburn is versatile, and can be fired from practically any platform, including just a flat bed truck. It has a 90-mile range, which is all that is necessary in the small Persian Gulf and 40-mile-wide Strait of Hormuz. Fired from shore a missile could hit a ship in the Strait in less than a minute. It presents a real threat to the U.S. Navy. Tests using the Aegean and RAM ship defense technology stops the Sunburn 95% of the time, but such testing was done in open seas, not a bathtub. The payload hit with a 750-pound conventional warhead can be witnessed at 1:53-1:57 in this video. Not enough to sink a carrier, but it could take down smaller capital ships and crew.
You don’t have to be Hannibal preparing for the Battle of Cannae to see that the Strait is a potential shooting gallery. Without a doubt, Iran has plotted and mapped every firing angle and location along the Gulf, their home-court coastline. This is going to put enormous interdiction pressure on U.S. warplanes to spot and destroy platforms, which may be as simple as a flat-bed truck. In reality, Iran has dug in from Jask in the east to Bandar in the west and can easily cover any ship, commercial or military, traversing the narrow Strait.
Equally disturbing is Iran’s missile range for the entire Persian Gulf. Bahrain itself could be hit by the longer-range version of the Sunburn, the Onyx. Is the U.S. (which has three aircraft carrier groups in play currently) going to stick around or clear out to the Oman Sea, leaving control of the oil lanes to Iran? Or will they stay and slug it out with the Iranians? If so, at what cost? Iran’s home court strategic advantage and weaponry may mean nasty losses for the 5th Fleet. If they leave, the Iranians would use naval mines to close the strait and missiles to hamper the mine clearing operations.
This is a classic fog of war situation, and has game changer potential.
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if you're still in the military after vietnam and the rest now, you deserve to die.
Because no one in the military is there to take care of their wife and kids or because they couldn't find a job anywhere else?
Grow up, asshole.
I agree with you to some extent, but we have to remember that millions of ordinary people are duped as a result of outright lies and what have you. Yes, they do carry a large part of the blame, but if one considers the weapons of mass propaganda deployed against them, then one has to show at least some form of compassion and leave the door open... meaning that hopefully many of them will open their eyes and join our ranks. We're going to need them. Logic also dictates that one doesn't need to be in the military to be drawn into a direct and life-threatening conflict as the last worlds wars have shown, whether you've been duped or not. Needless to say, we're going to need the military expertise of many of those who have chosen to follow a career in the military... based on an honest desire to defend their nations, to be able to place bread and butter on the table, et cetera. Let's not fight among ourselves, but let's focus on the ones that were and are responsible for causing Satanic-driven divisions among us. Yes, there must be division, a division between good and evil, but we're not supposed to extent that division to the point where there are divisions between brothers and sisters, spiritually and physically, especially if it involves killing each other. Needless to say, our time to get it right is running out...
Maybe the "millions of ordinary people" who have been "duped" into defending their country, who are actually petroling the cities and terrain in theatre instead of watching CNN or reading the internet all day, who actually interact with locals and build bridges with them, protecting them from their own thugs who live across town or hide up in the hills - maybe these "dupes" are closer to finding the truth than are you?
Oh come on, for every thinking soldier and Marine, there are ten dupes, it is what it is. And why are Americans patrolling in those far off places and what Constitional basis allows for it? No matter what little good may come of it, there is this massive, massive wrongdoing that led to it in the first place. These undeclared wars and occupations have transformed the US into an imperial dictatorship. I don't use those words lightly--the US is a dictatorship. We hold elections, but only the right people run in those elections, so basically there is no choice even though the face at the "top" changes from time to time--no policy ever changes with regard to what is being done or why. It's all "say one thing, do the opposite."
The troops overwhelmingly support Ron Paul. It's not even a close race on that front.
You have no idea what you're babbling about.
I agree with you to some extent, but we have to remember that millions of ordinary people are duped as a result of outright lies and what have you. Yes, they do carry a large part of the blame, but if one considers the weapons of mass propaganda deployed against them, then one has to show at least some form of compassion and leave the door open... meaning that hopefully many of them will open their eyes and join our ranks. We're going to need them. Logic also dictates that one doesn't need to be in the military to be drawn into a direct and life-threatening conflict as the last worlds wars have shown, whether you've been duped or not. Needless to say, we're going to need the military expertise of many of those who have chosen to follow a career in the military... based on an honest desire to defend their nations, to be able to place bread and butter on the table, et cetera. Let's not fight among ourselves, but let's focus on the ones that were and are responsible for causing Satanic-driven divisions among us. Yes, there must be division, a division between good and evil, but we're not supposed to extent that division to the point where there are divisions between brothers and sisters, spiritually and physically, especially if it involves killing each other. Needless to say, our time to get it right is running out...
One must also be aware of what is happening domestically with the militarization of local police forces, and the ever increasing lists of potential targets.
Based on current lists, we are all terrorists. Soon there will be no place to hide.
Such bullshit. Militarization of police is all because defense companies marketed their products to other customers and police agencies received governemnt grants and other federal funds to buy all that shit. It has nothing at all to do with repression, but rather our twisted form of "capitalism." There are a lot of former military in the ranks of police agencies, it was an easy sell job--the public wants them to be "well-equipped" with the "tools for their jobs" and the police unions follow in lockstep. But there is no grand conspiracy here--the shit gets bought, most of it is put on a shelf and never looked at again.
There was an article about police agencies buying surplus M-113 APCs. Great, except the M-113 was the lousiest piece of shit to keep running that ever existed (next to Soviet junk) and without all kinds of support units and special equipment, well, good luck. To do any work on them, the powerplant has to be completely removed from the chassis! It's a total boondoggle for a police agency to obtain one, even for free! But yeah, militarization.
Its the debt.
Three ways to get rid of debt.
1/ Pay it off
2/ Default
3/ Go to war
Looks like option number three. The elites get to keep their cake and eat it to! While the 99% become cannon fodder. Good way to solve the unemployment crisis to! If not manufacturing weapons, then you are getting killed and maimed by them! And the elites keep right on eating cake.
Exactly, that's why we've got to leave our shit at the back door and go out the front door back-to-back.