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QE 3 Ain’t Coming Unless One of These Two Items Happen
The financial world is awhirl with numerous claims that the Fed telegraphed QE 3 will be coming at its September FOMC meeting. I don’t see this at all. All that Fed did was admit that its September meeting will be two days instead of one so it can have a “fuller discussion” about things.
A “fuller discussion” doesn’t mean anything. This was just Bernanke throwing the markets a bone so they wouldn’t implode with no QE 3. The majority of his speech was devoted to blaming Congress for his complete and utter lack of understanding of finance and capital markets.
Of course I get what Bernanke’s doing (it was just revealed that he funneled $1,2 trillion to Wall Street behind the scenes). The guy’s going to want to divert attention (and blame) to someone else. And with various Wall Street CEOs now hiring defense lawyers for the REAL wave of litigation, you better believe Bernanke’s getting worried about what’s coming his way in the future.
As for the Fed’s “fuller discussion” in September coming up with QE 3 or something else, give me a break. Do you really think the Fed hasn’t already discussed QE 3 and every other insane intervention you can imagine over since the Financial Crisis began in 2008? Do you really think that the Fed’s magically going to come up with something new that will fix the Financial System?
Let’s be blunt here, the only thing that will cause QE 3 to come out will be :
1) Another market Crash (S&P 500 sub-100) or
2) A major bank collapsing.
That’s it. QE 3 is not going to be some “let’s push stocks higher” move. It’s going to be a “desperately trying to hold the system together” move.
Now, about the stock rally that began on Friday…
This is not the first market rally that’s occurred as an insane reversal after a disappointing Fed statement. We had the exact same move occur after the Fed’s disappointing August 9th FOMC. That move had “market intervention” written all over it.
This one did too. Indeed, it’s just a little odd that both of the last two Fed announcements saw the markets sell off hard then suddenly stage insane rallies.
What’s even stranger is that the credit markets haven’t bought into either of these moves at all. Do you really think that QE 3 is coming in a few weeks?
Another thing… shouldn’t Gold be exploding higher if QE 3 was just around the corner? Would it really be forming a Head and Shoulders if more monetization was coming?
Let’s just call this latest rally for what it is: end of the month performance gaming aided by clear Fed intervention in the markets last Friday. This will end badly just as the last rally did (we wiped out ALL of its gains in a few days).
To me, the message is clear. The Fed won’t be unleashing QE 3. And the markets remain on Red Alert. Indeed, we’ve had several insane snapback rallies during the 2008 collapse. Indeed, in the span of two months we saw three rallies of 11%, 17% and 20%.
These last few rapid rallies have the exact same feeling to them. And they will very likely end the same way: in disaster. Many people are going to see their portfolios get completely destroyed.
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How are your short trades coming along Graham? Busy shorting the bottom again?
Yes, Phoenix, Friday's sudden reversal was identical to Aug ninth. Wish they'd be questioned about such market intervention. So much they're having to do in secret, things to hide these days. It's really a criminal enterprise anymore. And it's quite impossible to take measure of markets while they pull strings to suit their purposes. Good article, thx.
so the phoenix guys just post not read ,, the articles on zero that tells a different story with much more depth.
btfd
Today, gold is telling us QE3 is around the corner.
Thus far this year the DOW is down 57. Now, how much has the value of the dollar fallen? If you are in the markets, this is how you will find the real return on your investment.
Good article. Don't listen to the pea(nut) gallery, Mr. Phoenix.
They are gonna LOSE THEIR ASS listening to the HUCKSTERS (again).
That head and shoulders - if confirmed - targets 200 dollars an ounce.
Good article, with one exception. QE3 is coming.
Benrnake would prefer NOT to QE3 and he wouldnt go there under current conditions - except that Europe's implosion will cause contagion to some major US Banks and force his hand. But yes, Mr Phoenix is absolutely correct in saying its not a 'lift stocks' move but a 'stop the whole shebang exploding' move. I also agree with the analysis that Benranke's language is just throwing the market a bone of hope rather than a tacit undertaking to QE3.
That's the PPT in action, Graham. Screaming-Vee bottoms that let nobody else buy in time to get in the first 20-30 points up. First known instance Oct. 20, 1987 read how the XMI Futures on the CBOT saved the world.
https://picasaweb.google.com/107472818091222876443/TheMissilesOfOctober#5255338993667792082
qe4 [sic] must occur. i can't predict its timing. my guess is that the next 3 weeks are the prelude to condition sheople into accepting it.....the maddening logic that falling or stationary prices must be averted at all costs drives the calculus for stupid policy making....it some point the bubble will pop and crises of biblical proportions will befall us.....that too will occur just as day follows night - it's timing beyond the precision of my crystal ball....
perpetually rising prices are a mandated sin qua non of fiat debt based money systems....that is why interest rates were sent to 0.....our system is the british consol system with a few more bells and whistles....
Markets recently had -400 point down days, no one even noticed. The sheeple are in a coma, what do you think will awaken and panic them? Has to be something on a VERY large scale.
A stealth QE3 is already in place. It called ZIRP and it's guranteed to be in place for another two years of ripping off ants to save the grasshoppers.
What people still miss is that none of this is really 'the game', theyre just keeping things afloat until their planned date to pull the rug out and implode the system for their 1 world govt and currency under total world banker control.
All this constant 'QE3' talk is just a stick and dangling carrot. QE never stopped, so this is just all lingo for 401K brigades and computer algos. The markets are dead, and the FED deciding whether or not to buy it a new prom dress is just irrelevant to reality.
I thought a leprechaun has to extract $350/oz gold out of Graham's ass for QE3 to happen!
Oh well..... Graham makes another low-grade bogus prediction.....i guess it's 50/50 anyhow at this point....
Q# is already arrived ,, never stopped . delusional folks at every level ,
The fed is flooding the world with rescue . Only the very dull do not acknowledge .
The fed is owned by the banks ,.. the banks have access to 0% fiat , on going . Trillions in unanounced envelope stuffing , Brown Bags every where you look .
The gold sees it .. and has a big boot on its neck.
Read the free report. and sign up for continued B.S. for $250 please
The chart patterns for gold and silver are painted by the bullion banks. Good luck if you fall for them.
Phoenix capital is pure garbage. Why is it even posted here?
I suppose they make you appreciate the really good posts from contributors like Bruce Krasting.
I guess if they help ZH pay the bills it's O.K. with me. Because............
Zero Hedge Rules the Day. The Best of Class
I don't need PCR to make me appreciate Bruce...
personally i like these reports,,,,,, whats not to like about showing a head and shoulders on gold, and giving an opinion? because you think he is pontificating? well instead of bashing the guy bring something to the the table........ LIKE YOUR OWN IDEA.
bashing an opinion every now then is ok but most of the time you should be giving your own ADDITIONAL two cents.
stop bashing and give your valuable opinion to be critiqued please
My idea would be to own physical metals only, which I do. I would not add here.
Myh best idea is to keep all trading cash in cash and wait. Patience for the down turn will be rewarded if you have cash.
The market will go down eventually. But in the current time. The HFTs are burning shorts.
Nobody of quantity is really buying all the green ticks. That is Robo at it's worse.
Rigging a market with Bear Traps all over the place.
Do a 60min. 10 week of NFLX. This has Bear trap written all over it. Look at all the people who would like to get out.
The H&S was caused by margin hikes creating liquidations of those who could not cope with the increase in margin not by market participants fluctuating views on gold and therefore can't be considered valid.
Will somebody please throw this Phoenix Capital research in the garbage can along with Robert Prechter's garbage reports.
The louder they scream the more the market goes up.
'The more the market goes up', what the DUH at 11,400? Personally I think the article is correct, while everyone is 100% confident in DUH 14,000 very soon, theyll be destroyed so quickly they wont have any way to stop it, they will find an empty bid-less market trying to panic sell. In Sept.
Well, since neither of these are avoidable, the only question is, which will happen first?
1) Another Market Crash 2) A Major Bank Collapsing. Does not matter. We already have #2 every day.
This market should have reversed on the news this morning and went down. The banking fiascal of 2007 has not been fixed.
Why you can not invest in the markets has been proved.
The Elitist Hedge Fund HFTs with their softare and algo programs do one thing.
They control what goes up and down without reason. The markets are no longer honest in any way. They are broken.
Hence, Proof that the Market is completely Rigged. They own the markets and all money in the markets.
As explained by one of the better ZH contributors. They market can drop severly any morning that the HFTs decide to do so.
Goldsachs is already giving advise and Ben has the helicopter ready...
Unless we all missed something, QE continues sub rosa with ZIRP til 2013 and the Fed monetizing up to 80% of Treasury auctions
Yipee! Yea ZIRP and the FED buying every stock and bond in sight will save us....if only we can do far more of it. Im sure.
The rub is that ZIRP and T-bill monetizing may not keep up with private debt pay downs, write offs and defaults. The house of cards is tenuous at best.
"Accomodation" is coming, rest assured.
Yes, I wish this guy would provide some useful information, like what has happened to all the V.C. money floating around out there. These guys are always equity bulls.
well, he has to sell fear rhetoric, so he can pump his crisis newsletter.
without QE, we can expect a crash. But with 'accomodation", its gold up and stocks up.. everybody wins.
And dollar down, so no one wins.