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Red Alert

Submitted by Bruce Krasting on 08/02/2011 20:37 -0400

The equity markets ‘shit the bed’ today. US investors got tattooed for $2 trillion of market cap. And this was supposed to be a good day. Talk about, “Sell on the news.”

I don’t think the Deciders really give a damn about stocks. It must 'smart' a bit to see the results of the day, but there is not much they can do about market positioning. The gold price was another slap in the face. Most folks in the country don’t really give a damn about gold, so neither do the deciders.

There are three things on the plate this afternoon which are much more important than stocks and PMs. I see them as being (I) the Yen, (II) the Swiss Franc and (the mother of them all) (III) Liquidity. I’ll take these three in order.

For argument sake we are at record lows in the USDYEN. The last time we saw this was in March after the earthquake. In response to that market instability the key central banks intervened in the market to weaken the Yen. IT'S UNLIKELY THAT WILL BE REPEATED.

Yes, I would expect the BOJ to step in one evening soon and push the Yen crosses around for a few hours. IT WILL NOT WORK IF JAPAN INTERVENES ALONE. Its quite possible that the BOJ action (when it comes) will have the reverse (and perverse) consequence of attracting additional dollar sellers.

Japan is already (functionally) in a recession. The move in the currency is adding to the deflation. It is happening very fast. Without global cooperation there is not a damn thing the Japanese can do about it (possibly buy a week or two at best).

The Swiss are in a similar position. Their currency is at record levels against both the Euro and the dollar. Who is bitching about this? Answer: Everyone.

The Bankers

The tourist industry

The watch industry

The agriculture industry

The Bankers

The Farmers

The merchants

(people cross the border buy goods 20% cheaper)

The pharmaceutical industry

The manufacturing industry

The Farmers

The Bankers

Yes, I repeated bankers and farmers a few times. But trust me they count much more than the others. As a result of the very rapid run up in the CHF Switzerland is looking at deflation.

The one thing that the Swiss National Bank has said is that they would “resist deflationary forces”. Well they’ve got those forces in spades as of today. They also have the banks leaning on them hard.

The SNB is powerless to resist the currency markets. They are much smaller than the BOJ and we know the Japanese can’t control the markets. The SNB knows this all to well. They got their faces beat to pieces the last time they tried. There appears to be no options.

Much more troubling than the currency moves is a developing problem in money markets. There are liquidity considerations that are impacting traditional funding sources including money market funds, the repo market (all asset classes), currency funding markets, Libor markets etc.

Morgan Stanley wrote about this today. I will use their charts to make a point.

Look at the spike in three-month money through the currency swaps. We are highs not seen in some time; it is happening fast. But this is the chart that scares me:

Money is very expensive via the swaps market. Note that one-week money is now inverted to one-month money. You don’t ever want to see an inverted curve in these markets. In street talk:

The short end is tight.

Depending on the severity and duration of this condition, we have a problem. This one trumps them all if it gets out of hand.

These three market conditions have one common denominator. They would all require a coordinated global response to reverse. The Fed by itself can’t solve the problem in the Euro funding zone. The ECB is trapped with a problem that is getting out hand by the day. It is also true that the required condition for global intervention, DISORDERLY MARKETS, has been met.

The biggest issue behind this is that money got taken off the table and put in the mattress of (treasury securities and cash (I did it myself)) over the past few weeks. The stupid debt limit fiasco caused all that money to move to the sidelines. So the past can be explained. But what about the future?

As of tomorrow morning these conditions have to reverse. If the dollar takes another leg down AND the funding markets weaken further there will be some very worried central bankers around the world. The most worried of them all is the one who has the most to lose. That would be Ben Bernanke. I’m sure he will be looking at the swaps market and calling around to check conditions first thing tomorrow. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if there are not some urgent messages on his desk from other CB heads when he gets to work.

We are not so far from a tipping point (again) where markets could get out of hand. Given that, there has to be some serious thinking of what might happen next. The deciders are talking as I write. They know what I do and much more. Either sentiment and funding conditions change significantly by Friday or there will be talk of something “brewing” over the weekend.

What option is open and easy at this point? The only option is global coordinated intervention. In a matter of weeks $300 - 500 billion could be injected into the system. (400b Yen 100b CHF). The Yen carry trade would reopen and this would directly address the global funding considerations. It would be very sloppy, but it would also be effective (short-term).

If the funding issue gets more acute in the next few days it will make the MSM (finally). That sets us up for a very crazy week and a very confusing Friday. All eyes on the swaps.

Note: If you think this is all nuts then tell me the name of one central banker (who has a say in the outcome) who would not jump at the chance. They could all address their individual problems and at the same not take any individual responsibility. That’s every central banker’s dream.

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Wed, 08/03/2011 - 13:55 | 1521373 tom

Of your best here, and I think you called it, but I think just a bit too urgently. I think there will be a renewal of those swap lines with the ECB and other European central banks. Actually, I'm not sure, they might have been left sitting sort of dormant ready to be used. Look out for that in future H.4.1s

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 10:50 | 1520567 falak pema

The golden horde...now there's a theme of the day. Those who buy Pms; not those who go six pack like amerika's bad dream come true any day now; according to lobster boiler.

Rage and despair go hand in hand with greed and lust. Two sides of the same coin. Flip-flop. Be one then be the other!

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 10:33 | 1520475 Sutton

Thankfully we are still building schools, power plants and other infrastructure in Afghanistan.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 10:37 | 1520499 TheMerryPrankster

Build em and bomb em, were trapped in a loop.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 10:19 | 1520415 sagerxx

Top stuff, BK. You've been EN FUEGO lately, and your work helps me understand what the $&@%# is actually going on. Again, thanks, and VIVA! -- Sager

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 10:02 | 1520318 MachoMan

On a long enough timeline, collusion never works... this centrally coordinated effort of essentially all viable world players is destined for failure and, probably, in short order. Of course, I fully acknowledge that I did not expect them to last this long...

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 10:39 | 1520505 TheMerryPrankster

As JFK implied, a falling tide sinks all boats.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 09:45 | 1520246 crzyhun

Thanks for the heads up as if we did not sense this already...and if you did not then you are really in deep do-do

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 09:53 | 1520173 mayhem_korner

Coordinated currency response? Smells like NWO to me.

Good investment - weather-proof/bury-able/undetectable-by-metal-detector safe.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 10:39 | 1520507 takinthehighway

How about a length of PVC pipe with a screw-on cleanout cap on one end? Darn handy for burying that spare rifle and ammo...

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 07:07 | 1519815 janus

i'm growing weary of complementing...i'm far more critical by nature.

that being said, i feel it incumbent to add another plaudit here at ZH:

Mr. Krasting,

you've been blessed with a fine mind; and it seems you've put it to good use. while i don't know enough to agree or disagree with any genuine conviction, i find your stuff sterling and have grafted you into my learning tree...thanks, and, btw, all requests for vacation have been denied till janus is up to snuff.

Janus

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 07:10 | 1519812 wang (not verified)

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 10:59 | 1520614 krispkritter

For fucks sake don't DO that! I haven't had my coffee yet...

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 10:53 | 1520578 falak pema

wang twangs...in self applaud?

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 06:59 | 1519804 Mr.Kowalski

While massive currency market intervention will help in the short term, some of this is also due to weakness in both Spain and Italy. Might not that half a trillion be better spent recapitalizing Italian & Spanish banks and purchasing bonds in the secondary markets ?

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 06:44 | 1519788 BlackholeDivestment

''Red Alert'' and ''Tipping Point''? Wow... When I saw red I heard Uncle Sam 33 Degree Scottish Rite Mason (pg 23- http://www.themeasuringsystemofthegods.com/The-Occult-Masonic-Temple-God.pdf ) Nunn sing http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUlIVOf3Q6w ''it's time'' for the ''Tipping Point'' http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vju0W7CRWVU

...speaking of which, 10 hours putting together an intelligence analysis http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hbnmoiu6670&feature=related of biblic proportion literalty. ...Uh yeah, ...the tipping point red alert ...in so many ways you would not imagine. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmqPri1jojY&playnext=1&list=PL84EFAB5FA45C9067

...nice read Bruce. Thanks.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 06:25 | 1519780 disabledvet

And of course to finish the thought "this is exactly what happend in 2008." the inter-bank lending dried up due to a deficit of TRUST. None of these people know each other--and to the extent they do they're paranoid about everything and they hate each other. this is true in spades in Europe. we shall see if "unenlightened self interest" carries the day on Wall Street. (Doesn't hurt that The Salami owns AIG right now either.) In the 70's all the bannkers played tennis with Larry Kudlow. (there is a surprising degree of truth to this absurdity actually.) that's why everything worked out just fine. (and there's even a more surprising degree of truth to this absurdity as well.) anywho "we've solved nothing from the original crisis" and in fact the Administration may have made it worse with "never let a crisis go to waste" and "go phuck yourself." in short we didn't have a government funding crisis in 2008 but this time courtesy of the numb nuts of Chicago we do. perhaps a good old fashioned funding crisis IN ADDITION to a liquidity crisis would help get their deficit attention disorder (also known as DAD) in focus.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 06:02 | 1519770 doggings

Note: If you think this is all nuts

not at all Bruce, Jim Willie's been predicting QE goes global next for months

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article27125.html

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 05:59 | 1519769 chump666

good luck SNB...you'll lose again

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 05:51 | 1519765 Ying-Yang

SNB redux... intervention currently underway. Question is will G7 intervene?

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 05:21 | 1519757 DaveA

This is all far too complicated. How can any central banker correctly adjust the supply of his currency without knowing the demand for that currency? Demand depends on what investors think the central banker is going to do, creating an extremely unstable feedback loop. This madness can only end with the destruction of all paper money and a return to a worldwide gold standard, as in 1914.

Getting there is going to entail massive suffering. Since gold was abandoned, whole industries have grown up employing millions of people to produce goods and services of little real value, while millions more get paid to do nothing at all. Some will starve without the free lunch of paper money, but most will find new jobs, even if they have to accept wages that a Chinese peasant would scoff at.

The New Deal/Great Society/Welfare State experiment will end. Power will shift from the poor to the rich, from Blacks and Hispanics to Whites and Asians, from labor to capital, from government to private enterprise, and from feminists to men with guns. The "middle class" will split up -- the more industrious will hire servants, and the rest will become servants.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 02:55 | 1519692 PulauHantu29

I was traveling in Europe last year and dipped across the border into Switzerland---only lasted one afternoon when I ordered a tiny Tahi lunch at a Fast Foo dplace for $38 USD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I promptly turned around and drove back into France whicj then looked alot cheaper and canceled any touring of the Swiss Alps.

TOO Expensive for Americans with Cheap paper USDs....

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 09:16 | 1520134 falak pema

too expensive for french with devalued euros. You have to have family friends there or be filthy rich to afford ten days in the swiss alps! When you can get three weeks for same price anywhere else in better hotels.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 02:53 | 1519688 GoinFawr

Don't worry, Mr. Bond has it covered; just think of how Dr.No ended... oh, wait, try NOT to think of how Dr.No ended.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 02:41 | 1519679 Bear

Gold at 1666.6

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 02:39 | 1519677 automato

Whatever you do, DO NOT ALLOW THE SUPER CONGRESS! This is HIGH TREASON!

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 09:35 | 1520193 BlackholeDivestment

...awe man, I'm the spaz that gave you the down arrow. Forgive me, the mouse pulled a Ouiga, I meant to hit the green arrow. Major oops. http://bible.cc/2_thessalonians/2-10.htm The Legislative Branch is on par with a cursed tree. http://bible.cc/matthew/21-19.htm

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 02:27 | 1519667 Rikki-Tikki-Tavi

Another great article Bruce. In my view we face this situation because Benron via cheap money has pumped the markets up to very unhealthy levels and now everybody involved, incl FED, are far too leveraged. This could have worked (at least for a while) if the macro data had not been so bad that it now is clear to everybody that markets are mispriced. How can adding liquidity solve that problem or do you disagree with my assessment?

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 02:25 | 1519662 eww

Someone needs to raise the question of how short the market Bill Gross (PIMCO) was as of this morning. Talk about more scandal............

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 02:17 | 1519654 eww

Someone needs to raise the question of which US Congressmen were short the market through the period of 7/21 - 08/02. Talk about scandal............

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 01:44 | 1519628 boiltherich

You

can gamble on stocks, you can gamble on bonds, you can even gamble on commodities, you can opt out and hold cash, you can try real estate, you can even go survivalist and live in a cave in Idaho while investing in ammo. One thing you will not do is improve your real life situation through either work or investing. You flatter yourself that you bought gold at $800, silver at 13 because you are smarter and sexier than your competition, maybe you are humble and think you just got lucky on timing, but either way you won your bet.

How have you won your bet, how are you vindicated when people around you are dying? How does anyone win when all of our values are dead, when everything you touch and see is corrupted by money that stinks of theft? If you think you made a profit by going with the kleptocracy and their massive frauds while most people lose much or all then think again, you have no ethics if that is the case, you are as bad if not worse than the scum parasites that gave us this blackened mess of hell. You pretend you are in the investor class because you put a few hundred or thousand dollars into PM's even as you did nothing else to rescue your community or nation and you smugly say to the rest I got mine you dumb shits should have been as smart as me.

Fine you win, but do you know what a target of rage that makes you when the mob goes out to string up the real assholes that did this to us? You think that once the poor finally rise up in a real collapse that they are going to see you as some kind of angel? It is coming, when it does you will either be part of the poor mob or you will be it's victim. It will not hold trials with charts and graphs, it will not listen to excuses, you are either one of the poor who go after the pigs or you are one of the pigs the poor go after. What you do not get is that unless you have at least 100 million bucks you are one of the really fucked. If you think a net worth of a mere million in monopoly money, or having cadged 5 or 6 hundred ounces of gold is going to make you a member of the new investor class you are insane. That you will be insulated from the rage of the people when they find out they have been robbed of everything? When you have 300 million people that find out simultaneously that they were robbed of everything and even their kids lives are at stake they are going to go hunt those that still have anything. It will be a bad year for those that gloat about their prudence, and one way or another you will be even more pissed off when they take it from you, if they allow you to live long enough to be angry.

What I am saying is this, you are better off putting your wealth and your energy into fixing the problems by any means rather than trying to blame ordinary people for the mess and thinking you can profit from it. You can't. Please decide soon where your heart is because the end of the old ways can be as close as next month.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 06:44 | 1519791 gwar5

BTR, Let me know where you're going to be at when the SHTF because I don't want to be there with you.

Not only would you continue to be an unprepared mooch not pulling your fair share, you'd be such tedious company I would die of boredom, or just take the easy way out with my 9 mm, long before I reached my physiological limits through malnutrition.

You'd be useful if you could only let us know when your fellow travelers have that compulsory happiness thingy all worked out so we can stop preparing for dictatorship of the proletariat with indefinite transition.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 06:10 | 1519774 bigkahuna

boil the rich, this has got to be one of the most nasty tirades I have seen on here. The mob of poor you refer to is what has been called "the golden horde" in some good survivalist manuals. You are the first I have ever seen who extolled the praises of "the golden horde"

http://www.survivalblog.com/2008/08/the_golden_horde_and_the_thin.html

for those who have not heard of this.

If a golden horde forms in my city, I will hunt this murderous ravenous pack of animals down and put an end to them. You and your ilk will not threaten/terrorize/destroy my country. Nor will you bring harm to anyone who seeks the true American way of liberty and freedom.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 05:07 | 1519752 ViewfromUnderth...

You

started so well if one reads it to the tune of "Gotta Serve Somebody" (Dylan)...

then you vere off into some stupid, twisted straw-man illogic that leads me to the conclusion:

you were short gold last night. Go fuck yourself.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 04:27 | 1519740 PolishErick

Well, Im poor as piss- still in collage with no job to get money from for any investment... Tried to warn the better off family and friends how to preserve their capital and prepare for the worst. Out of dozens of people three listend- the rest laughed in my face and called me a nut case. So its not my fault I was smart enough to scrap up some money to buy a miniscule amount of AG at 15-16 dollars, nor is it the fault of someone with milions that they bought hundreds of oz's of the yellow stuf, a cabin in the rockies and a bunch of hunting rifles... Because that milionare probably got laughed at 10 times as much as I did by the people he tried to help and warn...

To me this whole mess is not even the fault of the deciders- parasites and sociopaths will always try to win their share by cheating everyone around them. This whole mess is the fault of your poor mob! The crooks at the top couldn't cook this shitstorm up if they didn't have the full cooperation of the ignorant heards... So fuck them- I feel no pitty, everyone who didnt give a shit about warnings from people like me, or many others on this forum deserves whats comming.

Plus if shit really hits the fan, people who tried to sound the alarm in their good will, are gonna be taken along for the bloody ride with the ignorant pigs that sat around all this time watching sports, celeb bullshit, and laughing us in the face- we dont deserve this... they do!

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 06:15 | 1519777 disabledvet

what's wrong with sitting around watching sports?

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 07:07 | 1519817 PolishErick

:) maybe I went a bit over the top, but I get that way reading the kind of crap that boiltherich spews... I think its an alergy of some kind. My apologies to all sports enthusiasts.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 02:13 | 1519652 Bay of Pigs

Not impressed with your conclusions on how some of us feel about all of this. I've been trying to get through to people for well over ten years. You act like we've been sitting around doing nothing. Go fuck yourself.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 03:26 | 1519713 GoinFawr

Unfortunately BoP "I toldja so" doesn't mean much to those who wouldn't listen, they want someone else to blame for their own apathetic pig headedness, and success is an easy target.

Nevermind the fact that they've been malevolently wishing you in the gutter everyday for the last ten years and gloating mercilessly everytime you lost a battle with those they've allowed themselves to be duped into believing, even as you were trying frantically to warn them about what is going on. No, now that you've shown them up to be the domeless wonderboys they truly are the last thing they want to do is face up to the fact that you were right all along, rather they'll want your blood for it, because that is simply what stupid does: shoots the messenger. After all, in their little minds it's your fault that they didn't pay attention.

"You didn't help enough"

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 01:55 | 1519639 mcguire

im with you.. there are others here too, who realize this is much bigger than profits and trades.. you cannot be awake and value neutral. and i disagree with you re timing, this is a slow motion train wreck that is going to play out over the next couple of years, not months.. financial news has become the best way to watch the matrix..

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 01:37 | 1519619 Eireann go Brach

Excellent commentary Bruce! What is your prediction for NFP on Friday! Rumors are that there might even be a negative print...Friday will be a fun day in the markets!

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 01:50 | 1519616 michigan independant

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/2011-whats-coming

Update kind Sir and thanks in advance if you have time. I would only add the population is

to stupid to know what destroyed them so our Goverment need not worry about that damn

letter some interlopers sighned. Maybe by 2016 some people will consider there vote.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 01:31 | 1519614 piceridu

BK, this is an absolute gem. Thanks for your analysis!

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 01:12 | 1519597 DeadFred

Any good plays here? I think I see the USD spiking up against the Euro at least until they intervene, then back down? Clearly the stock market drops sharply.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 01:23 | 1519606 Crisismode

Nope.

The USD and the Euro tank together. The Swissie (like gold) climbs like a rocket. The Yen does some meaningless yada-yada on the gradual slope up.

By Monday (Tuesday at the latest) we have a full-blown currency crisis on our hands.

Place your bets, Ladies & Gentlemen.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 01:07 | 1519590 Manthong

So what would happen if the three month went to .85 or below?

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 00:44 | 1519571 AdahPrice

The Swiss bankers are complaining? I think that if I were a Swiss banker, I would be rejoicing, because of all that money flooding into Swiss francs.

Also, if I were a Swiss person who had worked hard and saved money, I would be rejoicing, because my savings are worth more.

When the USA dollar was high, Americans had it good. Foreign stuff was cheap, you could go on vacation anywhere, and a gallon of milk didn't cost $4.00. Now that the Swiss franc is high, I bet there are lots of happy Swiss people.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 00:40 | 1519567 RockyRacoon

Wow. I'm not sure what all that implies but it sure sounds ominous and scary. Should I hide under the bed until next Monday? Should I take my Moss 500 and a few gold Eagles under there with me?

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 06:17 | 1519778 bigkahuna

Man, I'd like to sleep in until Monday!

Red Alert

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