This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Reggie Middleton Sets CNBC on F.I.R.E.!!!
Last week I offered my susbscribers examples of the 2nd and 3rd sectors of the FIRE (Finance, Insurance & Real Estate) group that we see getting burned. I spent much of last year on the "F"portion of FIRE. Subscribers should reference the last 5 or so documents in the Commercial & Investment Banks section of the subscription content area. I then illustrated a Dutch real estate company facing the FIRE (again subscribers reference the latest submissions in Commercial Real Estate), and I will be offering US REIT entities at risk in the next day or two. Of particular interest was my explicit warning on the insurance industry two weeks ago, both publicly and to subscribers, which included a full forensic analysis of the company we thought would be make the best short candidate as the feces hits the fan blades. See You Can Rest Assured That The Insurance Industry Is In For Guaranteed Losses! and Our Next Forensic Analysis Subject Is In The Insurance Industry for more on my opinion on such. I even appeared on CNBC yesterday, apparently the only investor/analyst/pundit warning on the FIRE sector for 2012. I outlined my summary outlook for 2012 here: Reggie Middleton on CNBC StreetSigns Sees 2012 As Reluctant/Manipulated Continuation of Q1 2009… The actual CNBC appearance is available below...
From this point on, start this YouTube video and let it play in the background as you go through the balance of this post. It''ll help set the mood...
So, the day following the CNBC appearance warning of the risks to the FIRE sector, and specific risks to the insurance industry in the guise of combined ratios bumping heads with massive investment losses on sovereign and financial entity debt, guess what appears in the headlines of those very same media outlets??? Insurers’ 2011 Catastrophe Losses Hit Record:
Japan’s earthquake and U.S. storms helped make 2011 the costliest year on record for insurance companies in terms of natural-disaster losses, according to Munich Re (ARN).
Several “devastating” earthquakes and a large number of weather-related catastrophes cost insurers $105 billion, more than double the natural-disaster figure for 2010 and exceeding the 2005 record of $101 billion, the world’s biggest reinsurer said in an e-mailed statement today. Competitor Swiss Re earlier estimated that the industry’s claims from natural catastrophes reached $103 billion.
Global economic losses jumped to $380 billion last year, surpassing the previous record of $220 billion in 2005, with the quakes in New Zealand in February and Japan in March accounting for almost two-thirds of the losses, Munich Re said.
“We had to contend with events with return periods of once every 1,000 years or even higher at the locations concerned,” Torsten Jeworrek, Munich Re’s board member responsible for global reinsurance, said in the statement. “We are prepared for such extreme situations.”
In Beware Even Those "Safe" Insurer's Portfolios I illustrated to my susbscribers the risks that insurance investors face. Munich Re said 2011 was the costliest year on record, but they failed to state how difficult it would be to handle said record losses with additional and potentially greater losses on bond and FI porfolios. Munich Re's net exposure to sovereign debt of PIIGS as % of tangible equity at the end of 2009 = 41.2%. Damn! Many compmanies are worse than that (and I'll delve into those a little later). Now, by revisiting the insurance primer that I offered in You Can Rest Assured That The Insurance Industry Is In For Guaranteed Losses! you can see that combined ratios may very well break 100 while investment losses spike. Somebody may not get their claims funded, eh?
Professional Subscribers, reference the addendum to the 
Sovereign Debt Exposure of European Insurers and Reinsurers (439.61 kB 2010-05-19 01:56:52) whcih can be found online here: Insurer and Reinsurer Sovereign Debt Exposure Worksheets - Professional
»
- advertisements -
Wow- that almost looks like English- nice try!
at least they didn't pull a CNN on you!
Luckily AIG is not an insurer, it's a bailout whorehouse.
I'm sorry, but in my book it is sacrilege to mention Apple and AIG in the same thread...;-)
What's that? Did someone say whorehouse?
Mandy is so hot....sorry, what were we going on about?
emily chan
Good to see Reggie on CNBS as opposed to RT - but I doubt he will be asked back for the remainder of the year, if not longer.
CNBS has used Reggie to cover their ass, so when the shit hits, they can say we told you so!
Would you invite him back after his $275 call that apple would crash and burn. We never hear anymore apple pieces out of him. Guy was short bank stocks all of 2009, hated apple during 2010, I want the inverse Reggie ETF.
Nobody's hating on Apple. Apple missed the exact quarter that I warned my readers to start watching for an Apple miss. The precision was there (even if it was luck:-)) and it was backed by solid analysis but apparently your reading and listening skills weren't. Despite that, I'm allowed to get a call or two wrong, but I'm not going to say I'm wrong about anything until I'm actually wrong about it. The entire Apple/Google/RIM thesis is going exactly as anticipated - at least thus far.
Reg: you should consider hiring a publicist to toot yer horn, so you don't have to.
Reggie you must have forgotten your article where in Oct 2010 you claim you were the only bear in the blogosphere so my reading and listening skills noted you made this call when the stock was trading 280. Sitting at 414 close today so if your thesis is seeing a stock up 48% a year later and claiming you being the only bear on it at the time is working exactly as anticipated more power to you buddy.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/reggie-middleton-wasn’t-only-openly-apple-bear-blogoshpere-was-he
This was another beauty you put out back at before the market doubled.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/12928/bear-market-rallies-shake-out-wea...
Hell your whole archive is posted online anyone can see you have stayed bearish during one of the greatest long opportunities of a lifetime to make money from the march 09 bottom.
Instead he shorted financials and sovereign debt.
Oops.
Ahem...
/denzel washington from training day
My Nigga....
/end
I love it when you shove it in their face, I only wish you could be a guest host on squawk so you can make sorkin look like the fucking idiot he is. I still remember that day when he said "Well the CDS market is small and largely to be ignored"
Fucking amateur hour.
Go Reg.
Is that you Tilson?
Reggie is on CNBC often. And just because he got one stock wrong doesn't mean anything when he has gotten whole sectors right.
I don't really care about how smooth someone talks, so you Reggie haters can stuff it. I'd rather listen to a skilled analyst trying to talk like a smoothie than a smoothie trying to sound like an analyst. There's plenty of the latter out there, but few of the former.
Yes Reggie is right 50% of the time, like any analyst.
and yes he is very convicing, self confident.... guess what? he is running a business.
You don't get it. It is one thing to pick a stock. It is another to pick a sector. Reggie has successfully picked sectors. You don't understand how lucrative that is.
so the IT sector then? Lucrative.
reggie never said to short apple, he said they were heading for major troubles and the market was being over confident. he said and i qoute "i am not short apple but i will be". i phones are being sold at half price in norway right now, this hasnt happened before, looks like reggie had a point about margin compression?
Good job, Reggie!
I particularly appreciated the looks on their faces when you noted that Goldman was probably worth zero.