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RIM Gets RAMMED! Again... Remember That Contrarian Call 1st Quarter of 2010?
Nearly all of my calls on equity, sovereign nations and industries
are highly contrarian. At first blush, I get a lot of flack, negative
feedback and very little attention save that small coterie of paid subscribers
whom I cater to. In the spring/summer of 2010 with RIM trading in the
$60s or so, I warned that this company had defintiely seen its heyday. I
put out very specific research to subscribers, including downloadable
models and extensive reports. I was dismissed as having nationalistic
beefs with Canadian companies (WTF???). Well, about 75% in market value
loss later that short is still popping profits.
CNBC reports RIM Earnings Top Forecasts but Outlook Is Weak, as ZeroHedge parses...
- RESEARCH IN MOTION 3Q ADJ. EPS $1.27
- RESEARCH IN MOTION 3Q REV. $5.17B, EST. $5.22B
- RESEARCH IN MOTION SEES 4Q ADJ EPS 80C-95C, EST.$1.08
- RIMM SEES 4Q BLACKBERRY SHIPMENTS 11M-12M UNITS, EST. 12.8M
- RIMM SEES 4Q REVENUE OF $4600-4800bn, EST. $4854.30
- RESEARCH IN MOTION 3Q GROSS MARGIN 36.7%, EST. 37.1%
- RESEARCH IN MOTION SEES 4Q GROSS MARGIN 38%
- RIMM SHIPPED 150,000 BLACKBERRY PLAYBOOK TABLETS IN 3Q - that would be the since cancelled Playbook yes?
BoomBustBlog
banking and tech research has been near perfect for 2010/2011.
Subscribers who took advantae of this deserve kudos. To wit, and as
excerpted from Another RIMM Job? It's Amazing How Many Institutions Don't Read The BoomBust!
Let's try this again: As Forecast Last Year and Clearly Demonstrated This Year, Research in Motion's Problems Are Far From Over
Research
in Motion has been one of the most successful tech shorts of this
blog's history (thus far). We first recommended a short last year and
reiterated it in the fist quarter of this year. Reference:
This is a snapshot of RIMM as of the writing of this article...
image002image002
As you can see, the results have been spectacular, particular if well timed puts have been put to use. In January I posted:
I
personally see a clear leader in mobile computing becoming visible in
2012. Using options, a minimum of 2012 expiration OTM and ATM contracts
can be purchase at the most optimistic break points demarcated by the
model above after being populated with assumptions you feel most valid. I
will have a proprietary BoomBustBlog option model available for
download to paying subscribers by the end of next week, at which time we
will revisit the analysis above.
A 50% drop in price later... On that note, Bloomberg reports: RIM to Cut 2,000 Jobs as BlackBerry Loses Share to IPhone
Additional RIM writings...
Now, all should sit back and watch as those other two highly contrarian calls take root:
And on the long side...
- The Evidence Of Android Dominance Continues To Roll In - iOS Looks To Have Stopped Growing Market Share
- Where
Are The Pundits And Armchair Analysts When It Becomes Apparent That
Apples Is Indeed Susceptible To Google's Android Onslaught? - Google's Android Now Leads In Market Share, Growth Rate and Potential Buyer Preference
More
on my opinion of Google and the liklihood that they will control
smartphone mobile computing for the balance of the decade...
- Google's
Android Market Share Explodes As It Expands Its Reach To Cars, Toys,
Home Automation, Music & Movies - All In The Cloud - Even With Apple's Successful Launch On Verizon, Google Continues To Increase It's Lead In The Smarthphone Space
- Looking at the Results of Google's "Negative Cost" Business Model Employed Through Android
- Did
A Blog Best Wall Street's Best of the Best In Guaging The True Value of
Google? We Have To Think More Like An Entrepeneur & Less Like A
Wall Street Analyst
The
table of contents outlines how we have broken Google down into distinct
businesses and identified both the individual business models and the
potential revenue streams, as well as valuation for each business line.
Page
57 of the analysis shows a sensitivity table which outlines the various
scenarios that can come into play and how it will change our outlook
and valuation opinion.
Professional/institutional
subscribers can actually access a subset of the model that we used to
create the sensitivity analysis above to plug in their own assumptions
in case they somehow disagree with our assumptions or view points. Click
here for the model: Google Valuation Model (pro and institutional). Click here to subscribe or upgrade.
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After lurking in all other sites such as ZH (Seeking Alpha, Market Watch, Business Insider, Azizonomics etc) I conclude that a lot of disaffected (The lost their savings gambling the markets) people are venting their spleen on these sites, but still have no idea.
Because the market is now centrally planned by the BIS and its Henchmen, the Central Banks, it is impossible to use history as a guide, and charts for that matter. The top houses and traders have read all the books, most new traders have, and as a result they (and their algos) know how to shake out Retail, and even wholesale traders.
Most of the bears are probably paid shills to strike fear in peoples hearts, forcing them to liquidate their underwater holdings.
People forget that money equals a commodity to exchange it for. With all this liquidity and money printing, the dollars will be winding up in the hands of people who are snapping up hard commodities, before the owners realise that the money is devalued.
For this reason I have gone to Cash (To buy items at deflated desperate prices) and prime farmland (to earn income from people who have to eat). In Australia you can only own guns if you have a farm or member of a sporting shooter association. I bet eventually the sporting shooters will lose their right, but farmers will have a genuine reason (Stock shootings, vermin shootings and pest control) IF the SHTFH (Hard-causing a fine gut wrenching spray) at least I know I will be able to defend my interests. (My great Grandfather and Great Grandmother on both sides were burned alive in their home in Ukraine WW2 and I am learning from history)
BTW I have contacts in Australian Real Estate, in prime areas of Melbourne, and the market has dropped 40% in price offers but vendors are not selling. Once they are forced to sell (unemployment or panic), they will be underwater big time. In Australia, we have full recourse loans, so consumer spending is going to take a dive. Short Australian Banks and Retail. Australian Banks have heavily relied on offshore financing of Mortgages, and their funding costs are huge. I used to work in the Big 4 banks and their IT systems are inadequate for them to report quickly and efficiently.
Bravo to BBB, your work is simply amazing RM.
see what happens when the FEDs can not easily hack your text system..
http://redgreenandblue.org/2011/10/15/going-to-an-occupy-wall-street-protest-tomorrow-read-this-eff-guide-to-your-cellphone-security-rights/
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/london-riots-2011-protesters-blackberry-messenger-hackers-back/story?id=14264839
and this all started as.. RIMM not having good enough security.. only to find out the exact oppositte was true and the FEDs were pissed! so they just shut down the texting option for blackberry people inside the no communication zone of protests.
http://www.infosecurity-magazine.com/view/17488/infosecurity-europe-2011-panel-tacitly-endorses-blackberry-for-enterprise-mobile-security/
Freedom of Speech in America is a FUCKING JOKE!
Freedom of the Press in America is a FUCKING JOKE!
Soon! I will be in Jail Forever for telling the truth, in America without a Judge or Jury of my Peers having a say.
and People spin the truth to make themselves look better, all day everyday instead of sticking to the facts.
Lie in America, GOOD!
Scam People in America, GOOD!
tell the truth and have a moral compass.. you are doomed to fail in America!
several friends and clients of mine still use rim...and holy shit. the last several phones have such bad reception that you cant hear the caller. they drop calls in EVERY conversation and they physically break down after only 8mths.....a friend just gave me 4 rim phones that had failed in 2 years...(i dissect the puppie to look at the tech)..
i made a cooment that they all need to go to iPhone...it was a joke as the iphone has problems bt they said they are....hahahah
rim is dead...
Reggie,
Had a luncheon to celebrate a peer's promotion in a new role and 3 people had new Droid smart phones. Every one of them was bitching about excessive battery use after the latest update. Anecdotal evidence but the open source model has hidden costs that people rarely mention. An important one in my mind is quality. Once you have an incident with applications or the OS, who determines the party responsible for a fix? Who tests and validates the fix for these defects? Who runs suites of regression tests on these updates?
everyone i know who has an iphone; has a smashed screen. one drop and its busted
Reginald.
at the earliest possible moment that the profit from that coterie of subscribers allows....hire a PR person...even if it's part time!
I guarantee it will bring BIG dividends. In appreciation for all the fine work you do, that's my one off {free} forecast for yu to profit from:
sometimes the truth(let's face it- yu have indeed nailed it) is, well, yu know, too much to bear...the minute your stuff gets spun with just the right degree of silk, MON, yu gonna be Richie Rich! Imagine a world where you no longer need to strip for $!!!
Reggie. I wonder if you could respond to Karl Denninger's piece over at Market Ticker today. He has a long article about RIMM and seems to think their tech has some virtues that the iCult and Android don't. What do you think?
anyone notice that since karl denniger started charging people money to read his forum that the number of users commenting has dropped to nil.....literally ...it is like 20 people...?!
if that were true maybe, but its not
My cat Spread Sheets made this call two years ago.
they still make the blackberry?
What would we do without you, Reggie?
Anyone who DIDN'T see this coming, obviously hasn't tried out their new products in the last few years. The only thing that is propping this company up is the fact its SIM text messaging software is the most secure out there, especially if you know what you are doing.
Plus I have it on good authority, that the CEO of RIM was a HUGE dumper in high limit LHE games on PokerStars. I'm talking playing 25/50 SH, and 50/100, 200/400 HU vs online pros and just getting crushed.
Nice to see that salary he gets used for good purposes.
Thats the fate of every high tech companies. You're not able to churn out new products every 3 mths. Maybe Apple will pour tents of billions to develop something new but I doubt it. They will decline too like Nokia, Motorola or Rim.
We will see new winners with one time blockbuster and few meanigless updates afterward and then taking dump. They will have to slow down and forget policy of killing competition at all costs. In current economical environment all those improvements depend on data play, and where are all those people with wallet big enough to use them? 50% of population doesn't play games or watch sport on your phone, I hardly see the puck on my 50" tv what the fuck I would see on my phone screen? Are we crazy with all that shit?