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Roubini and Soros Say The U.S. Already in A Double Dip Recession and Warn of Uprising

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By EconMatters

Dr. Doom Roubini has grown even more pessimistic since he put a 60% probability of a U.S. double dip in 2012 just about three weeks ago.  Business Day reported that speaking at a press conference in Johannesburg on Sep. 20, Roubini now says, "The US is already in a recession although it will not admit it." and that the rest of the world would not be insulated from the effects of another global meltdown. (Clip at our site)

Regarding Greece and Euro Zone, Roubini thinks Greece would do best to default on its debt and leave the euro zone, and that Europe needs to step up austerity measures: . Eerily, George Soros also said almost exactly the same in a CNBC interview (Clip at our site).  Soros believes the U.S. is already in a double dip recession, and that "a number of smaller euro zone nations could default and leave the single currency area."  

Soros also sees Europe could be "more dangerous" to the global financial system than the Lehman Brothers in 2008, due to "Euro zone policymakers repeatedly following the wrong policy shifts."

But there's a reason Boubini earned his "Dr. Doom" reputation as he made an even more ominous prediction that there would be protests as well in the world’s largest economy.

"There is growing inequality all over the world. We have already seen middle-class unrest in Israel. Germans have smashed fat cats' cars.....As we go into another recession, there will be unrest in the US."

Interestingly, Business Day quoted Roubini that he was not averse to state involvement in the economy and held up Singapore — which had state ownership of firms and joint regulation and free markets — as an economy that might be shielded from global shocks.

EconMatters Commentary

While we are a bit surprised that Roubini seems to have lost total faith in capitalism by embracing a somewhat socialistic structure of the Singapore Model, we have to admit, on first blush, we (along with the markets) are sufficiently freaked out by both Roubini and Soros asserting the double dip status of the United States.

However, that feeling quickly dissipated as we think about the definition of recession - two down quarters of GDP, or when National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declares one, and realized the U.S. so far has not met these conditions yet.

We do believe Europe now holds the key as there's a distinct risk that the U.S. could be pushed over the recession edge by the Euro Zone debt crisis due to the interlinkage of the global financial system. On the other hand, the current euro zone debt crisis is quite similar to the debt ceiling fiasco in the U.S. a while back.  

The bloc has an inherent structural weakness - central currency without a central political governing body.  But eventually there will be resolution, be there a Greek default and leaving the currency union, or a super-roid-charged bailout package as the stakes are too high for a Euro collapse.

Meanwhile, the U.S. economy could be facing a tough patch in the next two years or so, but the odds are still in favor that backed by its tremendous natural and human resources, the country could pull through and resume growth.        

Roubini has been consistent with his double dip recession gloom and doom for the past three years; however, Soros' track record suggests that his recession talk could be nothing more than a reflection of his current trading position, knowing his influence over the markets, rather than an objective economic assessment.

(Both videos available at our site)

Further Reading - Maps Du Jour: Food Inflation Riots and The Libyan Politics

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Sun, 09/25/2011 - 11:08 | 1707441 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

"Dr. Doom Roubini has grown even more pessimistic since he put a 60% probability of a U.S. double dip in 2012 just about three weeks ago... Roubini now says, "The US is already in a recession although it will not admit it." 

Well Roubini has only just realised (over the past 3 weeks!!!) when he went from 60% un-sure to 100% certain... give them a friggin chance Dr Flippy Floppy !!

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 11:12 | 1707452 philipat
philipat's picture

Listen, give him a break. He's in South AFrica this week, then France, then Hong Kong. It's a brutal lifestyle making 100K a speech to be "Dr Doom". You think he has time to be specific? This is show business.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 11:08 | 1707438 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

The debt ceiling fiasco in America mirrors the Eurozone debt crisis: it all points to one thing, the Reagan/Thatcher model is dead. Guess what? It turns out "Deficits DO Matter"!! Who woulda thunk??

Through 2008-11 the idea was just repeat the same deficit spending, money printing and globalism of Reagan/Thatcher only do it with a Bazooka. 

Now that it's clear that the policies not only failed but are leading directly to economic decline of the entire Western World, there isn't a single thought, idea, vision, clue or impulse to replace it. Those who got enriched under Reagan/Thatcher don't want change. They want more of the same and to hell with the rest. Greed really WAS good, to them. Worst case? Move to Hong Kong. All the rest don't have a clue and still believe the crisis will just end one fine morning and we can all resume shopping on credit cards and acting all frivolous. What is that smell? 

 

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 10:50 | 1707393 Hannibal
Hannibal's picture

(just some thoughts, since the current status quo is dysfuntional)

Abolish the Fed and the IRS

Abolish all social programs and its institutions.

Abolish all corporate and personal income taxes.

Repeal all labor laws.

Impose a 30% import tax on all imports without exception.

Impose a college-university education compulsory and tuition free.

Break the law, you go to to jail, period.

 

 

 

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 11:00 | 1707427 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

I'd like to vote for you as... I dunno... how about supreme benevolent dictator for 6 months? If you haven't done it in that time, you get an automatic second term, but if not then -- you go home.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 11:12 | 1707455 Socratic Dog
Socratic Dog's picture

In keeping with his theme, if he fails then he gets a necktie party.

Hell, bring it in right now.  The huge financial rewards of public office need some counterbalance.  That might get our leaders' attention.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 11:55 | 1707574 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

Abolish the Fed and the IRS

Abolish all social programs and its institutions.

Abolish all corporate and personal income taxes.

Repeal all labor laws.

Impose a 30% import tax on all imports without exception.

Impose a college-university education compulsory and tuition free.

Break the law, you go to to jail, period.

 

The elites are listening. They are trying to figure out how to channel the public outrage to give them even more wealth and power.  They will selectively carry out your wishes mainly:

Repeal all labor laws, abolish all social programs and its institutions, abolish all corporate taxes

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 10:47 | 1707387 philipat
philipat's picture

Shouldn't it be Soros promoting Singapore as a model economy, not Houdini?

Singapore is, IMHO, how China will finish up in about 20-30 years from now. Manipulated currency (Three years ago the SGD was equal to SFR and has better fundamentals), Government controlled media, essentially one political party, no freedom of speech, Centrally planned economy etc. But, on the other side, the social contract still works and the people are, on the surface, doing well.

Not so in the US these days, so with a broken contract, the pitchforks may not be far behind. And in Singapore there are no guns.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 10:57 | 1707415 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

There's a suppressed volatile population though. The old man worries that there hasn't been enough time for the important lessons to have been learned in order for stability (and perhaps Singpore itself, as it is now?) to survive...

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 11:08 | 1707443 philipat
philipat's picture

All dictatorships go the same way, even benign ones. Mummy ultimately usually only knows best in the home?

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 10:16 | 1707315 DollarDive
DollarDive's picture

"But there's a reason Boubini earned his "Dr. Doom" reputation as he made an even more ominous prediction that there would be protests as well in the world’s largest economy"

 

I noticed that this typo might be a new great name for Nouriel .... lol !!

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 10:53 | 1707401 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

How about BooBanke?

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 10:12 | 1707310 LeonardoFibonacci
LeonardoFibonacci's picture

civil unrest here we come

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 10:59 | 1707420 Hannibal
Hannibal's picture

Not if: Treasury issues a montly funded debit card to every one starting at age 18 on up. $3000 a month will do for now.

Since the current status quo is dysfuntional. For starters Why Not:

Abolish the Fed and the IRS

Abolish all social programs and its institutions.

Abolish all corporate and personal income taxes.

Repeal all labor laws.

Impose a 30% import tax on all imports without exception.

Impose a college-university education compulsory and tuition free.

 

 

 

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 10:52 | 1707399 dizzyfingers
Sun, 09/25/2011 - 10:11 | 1707305 Weisbrot
Weisbrot's picture

 

 

 

is it almost time for the puppet shows next act ?

 

 

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 09:37 | 1707222 NuYawkFrankie
NuYawkFrankie's picture

While hedge-funds have a liking for Be-ta

And quants they do chase after The-ta,

Though they're likely to scoff

We'd be much better off

If their nutz were chewed -off by a cheetah!

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 09:21 | 1707183 mrdenis
Sun, 09/25/2011 - 09:13 | 1707173 mailll
mailll's picture

We never know when stock market crashes are triggered.  It's always unexpected.  We never know which straw will break the camels back.  This Thursday we have the third revision for the 2nd quarter GDP.  Will it be this straw?  No one knows except the insiders.  The rest of us will just have to wait and see. 

Many of us believe that the markets are being manipulated and that government data is being manipulated.  So we don't have a clue as to what is really going on with our economy because the govt. data is phony, and government data is what we are relying on.  And the people who control the money of the world are controlling the world.  The bond and stock markets are just child play to them. It's just a game to them.  And just to put it into perspective as to how trivial the stock and bond markets are, according to an article I read one time on Zero Hedge (I'm going by memory now so correct me if I get the numbers wrong),  the world stock markets have a total value of 36 trillion dollars, the world bond markets have a total value of 72 trillion dollars, but the derivatives market has a total value of a whopping 600 trillion dollars! So it just takes pocket change for these elite individuals to control either the stock markets or the bond markets.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 09:44 | 1707242 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

We never know when stock market crashes are triggered.  It's always unexpected.  We never know which straw will break the camels back.  This Thursday we have the third revision for the 2nd quarter GDP.  Will it be this straw?  No one knows except the insiders.  The rest of us will just have to wait and see. 

The stock market is crashing right now. Look at a graph of stock market value denominated in ounces of gold. It is freakin' imploding and has been for a while. No mystery. The fiat system is collapsing. IT ALWAYS DOES.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 09:03 | 1707152 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

We all know what that turd Soros wants. A big central european government, controlling all the economies of Europe.

Screw him.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 11:22 | 1707476 IQ 101
IQ 101's picture

Be carefull what you say about George, he might turn you into the Gestapo,

they will give him your toaster as a reward.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 12:34 | 1707655 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

Fox wants you to believe Soros is the bad guy. Soros hates Bush and is also disappointed with Obama. He is a progressive who wants to improve America not keep entrenched political parties in power. Democrats and Republicans both attack him for fear of losing control. Take immigrant Soros out an you will be left with entrenched elite who will divide and conquer. Soros is right on his analysis of how the system works. He is one of the few remaining Jews who have experienced Nazi authoritaritarian rule unlike spoiled brat American born Jews who live off of trust funds in NYC like the rest of paris hilton kinds. Immigrated twice once to london, then to US. Jim Rogers also immigrated twice. Heed to the warnings of those well traveled for they have seen more shit around the world.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=moD2JnGTToA

 

 

Be aware of those who try to shut him up.

 

Koch brothers (trust fund babies) and Fox news (murdoch) defame Soros using tea party idiots:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZHsZCA9xo8&NR=1

 

ZAKARIA: So, George, Glenn Beck has been on this kick that you are actually the mastermind who is trying to bring down the American government. How do you react when you see this kind of thing?

 

SOROS: Well, I would be amused if -- if people saw the joke in it, because what he is doing, he is projecting what FOX, what Rupert Murdoch is doing, because he has a -- a media empire that is telling the people some falsehoods and this -- and leading the government in the wrong direction.

 

But, you know, by accusing me of doing that, it kind of makes it rather hard to see that it's really, he is working for the man who is doing it, which is FOX News.

 

ZAKARIA: But it's very personal. I mean, he talks about you as a 14-year-old boy and he accuses you of -- of essentially helping to round Jews up -- you're Jewish yourself. You've lost --

 

SOROS: Yes.

 

ZAKARIA: You lost many, many people in the holocaust. How did you feel when you heard that?

 

SOROS: Well, look, FOX News makes a habit -- it has imported the methods of George Orwell, you know, newspeak, where you can tell the people falsehoods and deceive them. And you wouldn't believe that at an open society and a democracy these methods can succeed.

But, actually, they did succeed. They succeeded in Germany where the Weimar Republic collapsed and you had a -- a Nazi regime follow it. So this is a very, very dangerous way of deceiving people, and I would like people to be aware that they are being deceived.

Now, I -- because I saw it as a child, I immediately react that way. But people in America, they are innocent. They -- they haven't had the experience. But having the experience now, and I hope they wake up and they realize that they are being deceived.

ZAKARIA: What do you think of this broader movement of the Tea Party, of -- of what's going on on the right?

 

SOROS: Look, I think the people in the Tea Party are very decent people, hard-working. They've been hit by a force that -- that comes from somewhere which they can't fully understand, and -- and they are being misled. And they are misled by people who are using it for their selfish purposes, namely to remove regulations and -- and reduce taxation. So reduce taxation and regulation, and they are being used and deceived.

 

ZAKARIA: Do -- do you think that there is some -- I'm struck by the fact that when I first met you, you were always accused of being this ultra capitalist. You were the speculator, you were the person who, you know, understood markets better than anyone.

And now, you're painted as this kind of left wing iconic figure. It's been quite a journey.

 

SOROS: Well, you just had the experience of speaking through the -- to the puppet master and the extreme left wing manipulator, and you and the audience can make their own decisions.

 

 

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 11:10 | 1707446 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

And beyond that, Soros wants that pan-European government to be run by un-elected ministers. Wouldn't want the unwashed masses to upset the apple cart of their benevolent stewardship.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 09:47 | 1707250 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

We all know what that turd Soros wants.

Yeah, he's like an open book. And he is a turd.

I can imagine him standing in front of a mirror, posing. I look good in ermine!

 

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 08:49 | 1707138 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Roubini and Soros stating the obvious for very different reasons. 

The Great Purge is immanent.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 07:53 | 1707082 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

With (real) unemployment over 10%...and (real) inflation over 6% we have a misery index of over 16%.

Add to that:

...near zero return on savings....

...near zero return on bonds....

...plunging stock market...

...near zero job growth....

and Bankers gone wild...

...all this gives some substance to what these two knuckleheads are saying.

The Bernank needs to rev up the presses and monetize in this unique crisis despite the criticism of him....what else can he do?

 

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 08:20 | 1707105 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

The Bernank can't fix this.  Let's look elsewhere.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 08:34 | 1707121 Soul Train
Soul Train's picture

I just want the Federal Government and their IRS to stay out of my life.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 10:15 | 1707314 IAmNotMark
IAmNotMark's picture

Don't forget the Fish and Wildlife department.  You really want them to stay out of your life as well.

From a USA Today article regarding the guns drawn raid on Gibson Guitars at:

http://www.usatoday.com/money/companies/regulation/story/2011-09-17/gibson-guitar-wood-raid/50417242/1

"The agency oversaw the Gibson raids, with agents confiscating computer hard drives, and pallets of wood and guitars suspected of being imported illegally in violation of the Lacey Act, which bans the importing of environmentally threatened plants and animals."

How did it come to this?  Jesus Christ!  When I grew up the Soviet Union was the enemy because they were a totalitarian government intent on invading countries around the world......./on-coming rant turned off....

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 10:29 | 1707349 no2foreclosures
no2foreclosures's picture

Look in the mirror.  Since WWII, it has been the United States of Death, Disease and Destruction doing the invading (through economic hitmen or your marines) of countries around the world . . . Korea, Vietnam, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Panama, Guatemala, Libya, Chile, etc., etc., etc.  How did it come to this?  Well, your Yankee sheeple went to sleep and bought the Madison Avenue prop that the U.S. is the savior of the world, the gifter of democracy, etc., etc.

Wake up and smell the stinky dead roses of hypocrisy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n7Fzm1hEiDQ

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 08:42 | 1707129 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

The system will NEVER be fixed, because it is already "fixed," for the benefit of an elite, powerful few.

 

Until that elite is removed from power, the world's economy will continue circling the toilet bowl, ever faster and faster, until the point when even removal of the elite will no longer matter as the downward momentum becomes irresistable.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 11:03 | 1707431 RSloane
RSloane's picture

We've been circling the toilet for several years and the elite have ridden the rim like rodeo pros. That is not going to change until there is no dirty bog water to be drunk out of the toilet. The elite will never be removed from power. They will be replaced by another set of ruling elite who is totally boughten and paid for by the current elite.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 09:12 | 1707171 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

"Until that elite is removed from power,"

Step one:  Realize that the FED can't fix anything.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 08:50 | 1707141 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

i always saw the economy as a formed turd but you paint it as if its a particulate sludge of half digested carrot and mung beans.

let the purge begin.  colonics for all.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 07:44 | 1707069 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

"backed by its tremendous natural and human resources, the [USA] pull through and resume growth."

What does this mean?  We will put our human resources back to work somehow?  Natural resources?  We're going to find that cheap energy we've been hiding.  Or ............. is this mere hopium?

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 08:00 | 1707088 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

You drive a mini but you were quick off the mark to pick up that dumb line. have a green

hollywood jingoistic schmaltz to cheer folks up.

its going to be a hard few years ahead for many people.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 08:37 | 1707124 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

It's going to be a hard few decades ahead for many people.

 

There, fixed it for you.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 08:18 | 1707100 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

I drive a pick up.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 08:22 | 1707108 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

a pick up and a mini.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 09:03 | 1707153 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

Bisexual ?

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 09:10 | 1707166 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Projecting?

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 09:09 | 1707163 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

I own a mini.  Subtle difference.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 10:57 | 1707410 Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

Me too, Ruger 5854 - nothing subtle about that mini...

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 07:46 | 1707046 Earl of Chiswick
Earl of Chiswick's picture

Roubini and Soros? Excuse me but Zero Hedge is a classy joint and an article featuring the likes of those two (other than to mock and ridicule)  reflects badly on any who contribute or comment here.  Zero Hedge and most of their readers have been way out in front of those two mainstream shills yet because they now declare it there is some how credibility to the notion that we are in recession? How dare you.

Your surprise at Roubini's socialist orientation is evidence that you know little of the politiks of the great professor.  Next time for some comic relief perhaps you could write a feature citing that other great economic thinker, one Paul Krugman, Nobel Laureate extraordinaire.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 07:02 | 1707036 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

...but the odds are still in favor that backed by its tremendous natural and human resources, the country could pull through and resume growth.

What a ruse.  Yes the US has tremendous natural and human resources.  The problem is that the US is not the country envisioned by its founders, and those deep resources have been progressively constrained to the point of complete dysfunction. 

Govt-run school system scrapes away intellectual curiosity and produces thoughtless drones.  Natural resources of value in the country are strictly off limits for unfounded fear of damaging our surroundings and burdening our posterity.  Any ingenuity is quickly shipped off to the far east because ill-conceived obligations (read: unions & entitlements) make it economically unviable to produce things in the US.

I'll stop there because I'm feeling incoherent.  The statement is a hopeful view of what the USofA was supposed to be.  But that's not where the country is.  Liberty has been vanquished for statism.  What else explains $14.8T of unrepayable debt racked up by so-called elected officials.  It's a farce.  The only liberated remnants of the country lie in the growing underground.

Those pondering whether or not a double-dip recession is imminent or already here miss the point.  The current policy structure, coupled with the anchor of debt around our necks, makes degradation the only possible vector for the country until the RESET button is hit and the cancer(s) are eradicated over some decades.

Selah...

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 10:38 | 1707371 Ranger4564
Ranger4564's picture

You could also look at it another way.  America was an experiment. The Oligarchs established the policies, culture, infrastructure, institutions, indirect representation, pretense of democracy / liberties , pretense of prosperity / welfare.  The experiment started to get out of hand as people really started to believe they were entitled to a decent life, so it was halted. 

The experiment is being disassembled slowly so as not to create an even bigger nightmare, civil unrest. The ideologies were close, the privileges were too great.  They will revise their experiment and establish the correct mix in the next location, wherever it is, if not China. The new experiment will include enough progress to facilitate increased profit, but it will include reduced expectations of wealth / prosperity and liberty / democracy, so you don't start acting like you're a small time oligarch.

If Ferrari could instruct Senna to crash the second car into a wall if it looked like someone was going to overtake Alonso, to bring out the safety car, and at the same fucking track a few years later, Red Bull could instruct the second team to crash a car into a wall, if it looked like someone was going to overtake Vettel, to bring out the safety car, well, you can rest assured the entire system is fucking corrupt and a joke.

Anyway, consider the possibility that people like Edward Bernays are all around, manipulating the story. You are a victim of conspiracies, even if you don't believe it possible.  You are welcome however, to believe there is a genuine system worth preserving. i.e. double dip is not the real problem, the entire system is.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 10:33 | 1707362 Rockfish
Rockfish's picture

Bank run system. 

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 06:17 | 1707015 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Monetizing fatal doom predictions.

When these two US citizens start to release their information for free, trying to cattle their customers in a last attempt to squeeze as much possible wealth from their side Ponzi schemes, their hard than death doom like predictions will get much more weight.

So far, so good.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 12:16 | 1707004 falak pema
falak pema's picture

the inevitability of a QE/Zirp fed economic, fiat financed, hard-on going flaccid...Well, there will always be another day for he who runs away...The trick is not to have your Oligarchic dikk wrenched off by the irate in the meantime...Every man for himself on the Titanic.

This whole double dip prediction if its plausible is being given by the same cynical oligarch who benefits from the forest fire of WS ponzi economics. 

There is something troublesome about hearing a man who eats off the flesh of sheeple now acting so UBer-alles and remote to say in distanced, objective fashion, like simple innocent bystander, "I win and you all lose..."

The financial oligarchs should all end up looking like this under the scalpel of the justice : (no offense meant to those poor celebrities who got taken for an ugly ride.)

PLASTIC SURGERY APOCALYPSE: Celebrities Who Looked Better Before They Went Under The Knife

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/gosselin-montag-palin-plastic-surgery-2011-8#ixzz1Yyt8Hhyq

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!