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On Sentiment
It has been my observation over (sadly) a long period of time that when all of the “stars” line up and point in one direction, it’s often time to go in another direction. The commentary on the TV shows and newspapers is usually the last place one would go to for investment advice. The media is, however, a good place to consider if one was looking for signs that sentiment has gotten away from reality. I wonder if the market enthusiasm in this ABC News clip isn’t a signal that we have reached a tipping point.
All of these “stars” are now on the same page. Is it possible that they could all be right? If so, that would be a first.
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They only said they believe noone is going to stop the Bernank from printing...
"The media is, however, a good place to consider if one was looking for signs that sentiment has gotten away from reality."
When one has to even ask whether the "media" has any sense of reality it's clear that one isn't comprehending what the real word "reality" means.
"When you find that you are on the side of the majority, it's time to pause and reflect." - Mark Twain
I'm always fucking up and straying from the flock...
Market up is all Obama has, I believe there are conspiracies to get Romney elected. Here are some:
1. gasoline rigged to kill economy at 15-yr low demand
2. push by Fox to bomb/confront Iran against Obama's diplomacy
3.**** BURNING OF KORANS WAS NOT A FKING MISTAKE!**** This is to destabilize our pullout/maintain defense budget, probably by Pentagon topbrass.
think about the last one got no press.
"If we understand the mechanism and motives of the group mind, it is possible to control and regiment the masses according to our will without them knowing it."
"The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the public is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country." -- Edward Bernays
the result of greed on modern WESTERN "men" and "woman" put into song. Its the GM sound! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkLj3on6oUs&feature=share
"The fact that an opinion is widely held, is by no means evidence that it isn't completely absurd" Bertrand Russell
Bruce - Aren't you short Euro now though? Everyone is on that side of the boat too (as I am as well), but following your argument should we be. Also, Santelli brought up an interesting thought re the LTRO and that if the Euro fell it would lead to losses for the EU banks and so TPB cannot afford for the Euro to fall. I thought that was interesting. I still think it will drop as the recession numbers add up (unless they can lie about the figures as well as NAR can) but would like your thoughts on the sentiment and Santelli's comment. Thanks as always I enjoy your posts.
Yes short Euro at 1.3115. Ugh. I am also long USDYEN at 77.25. That just broke 80. So as usual, one plus one minus.
Thanks Bruce. Me too. Short Euro/usd and long usd/yen at similar levels and long gold at $1715 as my FED hedge. Santelli's comment struck a cord but I think eventually the euro has to fall (at least until the FED does something more stupid to help Europe).
Yeah, me too...I believe but only because I'm in since December. I am now selling into this rally..........just like they are.
Yeah, me too...I believe but only because I'm in since December. I am now selling into this rally..........just like they are.
Hold the high fives for a minute. This just in from the end of the Reuters article:
"Distressed properties, foreclosures and short sales, which typically occur at deep discounts, accounted for 35 percent of overall sales last month, up from 32 percent in December.
A third of pending existing home sales contracts were canceled, the NAR said."
OK, spin it to me again how this is great news.
Is that Bababooey in the middle of the second row?
1) its an election year
2) all old debt is now effectively monetized and functional
3) people want to believe, obama claus is being careful, he doesn't want to give them all the hopium at one
4) if nothing bad can happen nothing good can happen, the bigger the problem the bigger the solution. that's the only downside.
5) on the upside bernanke can force investors to stay in the markets in order to match inflation, and he controls (monetary) inflation. on the downside everyone is the same. now which would you prefer? he can control inflation by printing money, even on the downside he prints money.
6) buy hard assets and watch their value fall
7) buy assets which pay dividends and forget the principle, you're matching inflation, you'll never need the principle, and you can always mark it to model.
8) once you go to cash, you can never go back
yes, lets take advice from those two.
I feel much more secure in my SDOW position now.
Wait a minute. I recognize some of those stars, and I seem to remember that they've all been wrong before.
yes but they're all wrong at the same time so it doesn't matter
The cognitive dissonace can be handled, easier, if you think of the news and stock analysists as being in the entertanment, not financial, sector.
Cinderella, cable news, and the Krugman economy are all fairy tales, we don't want to scare the children now, do we?
The roulette wheel has come up black the last three times.
"The roulette wheel will always come up black! Bet all your money!"
If there is a difference, I am not skilled enough to distinguish it.
Guess I picked the wrong week to cover my shorts.
Looking at all those fake smiles makes me sick!
Ah, all those tiresome faces...their print and television pedigrees go back quite a way: "Wall $treet Week," "Moneyline," "Barron's," "Nightly Business Report" -- need we go on ? These are the headliners of the modern-day financial Vaudeville circuit. Would that when next the bear appears, these one-"person" shows get the hook -- permanently. Their unified "new normal" or "buy the dip" shtick is interminably wearisome.
Why, look ! It's Liz Ann Sounders and Mo' El-Arian doing the old "New Normal" soft shoe routine to Jerome Kern's, "Look for the Silver Lining," from, appropriately, of course, "Zip, Goes a Million." Such a graceful couple...
http://portland.indymedia.org/icon/2003/06/266161.jpg
I miss Lou Rukeyser.
- TRANSPORTS NON-CONFIRMATION
- MARGIN DEBT PLUMMETING (NYSE)
- SHORT INTEREST AT 4 YEAR LOW (NYSE)
- INVESTOR INTEL BULLISH 55%
-TV GOONS ON ONE SIDE
-after 5 yrs to break even, my brother put $125K in mutual funds. (says it all)
That feeling that everyone feels is the same feeling that anyone gets when they are on thin ice regardless if we know it or not.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLSCJmOIIJI
A good indicator is when my management starts conferring publicly about their stock holdings and market prospects. You can count on them to be wrong about everything, at every major turn.
They were tracking some hot biotechs last March.
Just last week, they were buying Apple.
No doubt ready to back up the truck for the Facebook IPO?
I do not know if I should be sad or happy. I did not recognize any of the talking heads. That must be because I stopped watching TV a long time ago.
you ever see that Dianne Swonk chic in leather on CNBC? Tell me she doesn't do the hoover with the ol' boys club
Sell Mortimer. Sell!
Screw the media whores.
Luckily all these experts are active in the world of finance. Imagine them working as a brain surgeons.....
They are working as brain surgeons. Conditioning, e.g. brain washing is their game. I don't know if it's classified as non-invasive surgery or not. It seems pretty invasive to me.
Against sentiment. Does that mean you're buying bonds, Bruce?
Shills
If they dished out the situation real, their viewers would be fleeing their houses in tears to buy food, guns, metals instead of being good little consumers of the products that are advertised.
I just read an article yesterday on the finance pages that said "don't think about it, just trade it". Dumber is better it proclaimed. So far dumb has been good for 3,000 points we'll see how much farther stupidity can take us.
When just Ben was printing it was a good trade. Now the Fed, The ECB and the BOJ are printing by the trillions and China and the rest of Asia are easing. Entire countries, not just companies are looking at default.
All that printing didn't create any jobs or fix any problems it just stopped the bleeding.
Anyone who has to buy gas and food knows it is not getting better.
All that printing isn't going to make your savings account worth more.
Gold? Or is there a lot more of it above ground than was assumed thanks to Yamashita, CIA, et al?
It appears that the "Real Money" (aka the ones with the huge quantities of TP money) is buying the "Blue Chips".
Explains it all:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manufacturing_Consent:_The_Political_Econom...
they're grasping at straws... refuckingcovery panel??? REALLY??? I'm laughing so hard I just woke all the neighbors up
She's right actually - or rather her group of experts are even if they're right for the wrong reasons.
It is most likely that The Fed and other CBs continue to expand their balance sheets and that the US equity market will continue to rise as a result. Go dig up a chart of just the Fed balance sheet vs. the S&P 5oo over the last couple years.
This will however have massive and very unpleasant side effects and consequences. Check out the charts in one of ZH's posts from yesterday to see one of them.
As long as the Fed continues to print and pump money into the stock market it should continue to rise over the long haul, but probably with bumps down as Greek, Iran, and other factor throw some wrenches in the works. One Game changer might be Obama Capital Gains hike to 44.8% (in his 2013 budget plan). That could trigger a sell off as people cash out their stocks to avoid the tax increase.
Charles Biderman (TrimTabs) said last week that Companies were triming back on stock buybacks, In November Companies were buying about $5 Billion (per week - I think) and trimmed back to about $1 Billion per week in January. Perhaps this is because other players were doing the buying for them.
The guy on the top right looks like LaGarde in drag...
Lemmings wouldn't follow those clowns. The only people that could possibly believe that tripe are AARP junk mail enthusiasts who voted for Roosevelt.
Talking Heads are ignoring cb printers running Maximum Overdrive... and MSM will avoid discussion of the magnitude of the cb paper blizzard of the last couple of years... With that discussion verboten, what is left but bobble heads sitting with a bag of holes, a thumb up their azzes, and smiles glued on their faces while they fritter away time with 'guests'?
Outstanding post by TD/ZH...
"Marginal Utility" Of Central Bank Intervention Is Rapidly Diminishing"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/marginal-utility-central-bank-intervention-rapidly-diminishing