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Sol Sanders | Follow the money No. 101 | I’ll see you -- and raise?
Latest from Uncle Sol. A version of this column is scheduled for publication, Monday, Jan. 16, 2012, in The Washington Times. -- Chris
Follow the money No. 101 | I’ll see you -- and raise?
By Sol Sanders <solsanders@cox.net>
Pres. Barack Obama has launched new international diplomatic poker with “a trailing hand”. It is impossible to exaggerate the forces at play, economic as well as political, foreign and domestic, and their interplay.
When he signed Dec. 31st the latest Iran provisos, Mr. Obama was handed new clout to cut Iran’s energy jugular in an effort to halt its march toward nuclear weapons -- and domination of the Persian Gulf with half the world’s oil. Although he has to report back to Congress, the law gives the President unlimited discretion.
Pres Obama’s ace is permission to go after Iran’s central bank. By indirectly sanctioning dealings with foreigners, theoretically he could bring the mullahs to their knees. He could scramble Iran’s oil exports – the world’s third-largest, about 2.3 million barrels a day, mostly to Asia, bringing in 60% of its government’s income. The law permits the President to play a marginal hand, for example dickering for “variances”. [Greece, near default and heavily dependent on Iranian oil, comes to mind.]
After the U.S. stopped importing Iranian oil in 1987, Washington blocked US companies and French Total, Royal Dutch Shell and Japanese interests developing Iran’s enormous energy potential. That’s partly why Iran also faces domestic disaster with 40% of its gasoline, 11% of diesel, imported. In the murky world of spot trading, two companies supply most imports – one descended from the notorious Marc Rich, given a last minute pardon by Pres. Bill Clinton January 2001 for 1970s illicit Iran trading. Other targets include not only oil majors, but as important, refining equipment makers, insurers, and shipping.
But persuading governments from buying Iran’s crude and selling it refined product may take better cards. True, the European Union -- the EU buys about 450,000 b/d – makes encouraging noises about eventually halting purchases. Cautious bankers are backing off financing Iranian imports as Tehran’s storage bulges.
But pressuring Tokyo to end Japan’s declining 10% dependence on Iranian imports, suffering shortages because of its earthquake-tsunami damaged nuclear plants, has brought a government split. NATO’s increasingly dubious ally, Turkey, refuses to give up one-third its imports.
When Treasury Sec. Timothy Geithner personally went lobbying, he had to read China’s hand -- a third of Iran's exports fuel 11% of its rapidly rising imports, now a third of consumption. Beijing’s blunt refusal to honor sanctions came despite Prime Minister Wen Jiabao setting out to tour Gulf suppliers -- pointedly excluding a Tehran stop. Undoubtedly he is checking whether Saudi Arabia and its neighbors, increasingly feeling endangered by Iran’s bellicosity, would throw increased production on world markets. [In fact, given its shakier economic outlook, oil mavim expect Beijing would use sanctions to whittle Tehran’s price.]
Mr. Geithner’s Beijing importuning was further weakened by China's trade surplus with the US widening in December by 24.2% to $17.4 billion. This American vulnerability suggests why Mr. Obama’s fellow players might call any bluff. Added to his having set arbitrary time-limits on Iraq and Afghanistan withdrawal after less than conclusive victory, threatening massive military budget cuts, you see why it will take more than a poker face at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
The President is, in fact, reversing his three-year campaign – often waged overseas – to denigrate America’s post-World War II hegemony. Washington responded forcefully to Iranian Pres. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s, threat, a probable feint, to close off the third of world oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz. But along with his round of fun and games visiting anti-US Latin American dictators, it has to be taken into account. If nothing else, Mr. Ahmadinejad spiked always highly volatile world oil prices [increasing his own revenue!] at a time of Euro crisis, a stagnant Japan, and America’s staggering unemployment and stuttering recovery. Additional US sanctions would aggravate all this if alternative supply -- and decreasing demand because of worldwide recession -- doesn’t restrain prices.
Still, answering Republican candidates pounding on Mr. Obama’s unrequited failure to appease Iran begins to take priority at his Chicago political GHQ. Sanctions could be seen as part of a turn of attention away from seemingly continued vulnerability on the domestic economy front. Reminding voters he concluded the hunt for Osama bin-Ladin as Secretary Hillary Clinton sides with Southeast Asians against Chinese oil and gas claims, as ludicrous as it might have seemed only weeks ago, could be part of a new Obama claim to strong international leadership as a contribution to his electoral success in November.
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This is like giving a little kid a loaded gun with a hair trigger. And telling him he has to admit what ever he shot, if he feels like it. What could go wrong with a no nothing elitist who's convinced he can get anyone to come to heel or crush them Chicago style for failing to respect his authoritas.
Hey, isn't that one of the memos that Eric Super Patriot Holder "forgot" to read?
This guy should pick up his check from AIPAC and call it quits. The big bad Iran is not out bombing women and children as we sit safely back here and hold forth with our views. We are, if anyone has bothered to notice, already placing Iranian women, the aged and children in jeopardy with this embargo. The increasing scarcity of medicines and foodstuffs will certainly affect women and kids just like our embargo against Iraq in the 1990's. The unreported truth there was that hundreds of thousands of the aged, infirmed, women and children perished beneath that lengthy embargo. What an accomplishment! Something to be so very proud of. We'll get those evil Iranians! Oh, yeah, I'm kind of light on the facts concerning their evilness. They must have lied to their citizens and invaded a nation and completely destroyed it or maybe they were the ones who dropped the bombs on the earth's most undernourished population in Afghanistan. Well, no matter what they've done to deserve receiving our righteous wrath - they certainly deserve it! What has really happened is that our nation has been pre-empted by a small group of homicidal sociopaths living in a sociopathic reality which they have created just for themselves. Their actions most assuredly don't concern us, but most certainly are going to affect us.
Didn't read this, nor anything else put out by, promoted, or submitted by Whalen since his piece backing Newt. Fuck him, the horse he rode in on, and the man that sent him.
the newt alignment is a big red flag......
Oil is a strong "buy" my broker told me.
No brainer, he says.
Easy for him to say as he probably lacks a brain!
Repubs pounding on Obama's "unrequited failure to appease Iran" ??? who the hell is doing that ? even Ron Paul doesn't want to appease them. Reading this commentary requires a Beltway thesaurus - and in this court, that won't do - bailiff, throw the defendant back in jail and feed him with a slingshot until he sobers up. Alright, boys, let's ourselves have a drink, and to the republic for which it stands.
The United States has ZERO interests in the Middle East. Obviously if you're from New York that's a different story. While i'm not disagreeing with the policies now being acted upon...in the name of dis-engaging with "the enemy" one can never be too forceful with one's words...i'm still unclear whether we are disengaging or not. Anywho "not my pay grade" as they say. I would say this: i don't like people who attack military snipers. it is an odd psychology...to see a man...take his life. There can be no doubt when you pull the trigger EXACTLY what you are doing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5lasqkciRNY&feature=player_detailpage
So you're saying, you don't like people who attack people who kill people by shooting them from a distant hidden position? There can be no doubt that every sniper knows exactly what they are doing when they pull that trigger. Is there some reason they should be exempted from recieving retribution for the horrors they inflict? I don't think so. As they say "live by the sword, die by the sword".
I would say, all is fair in love and war. If you are ok with one side killing another side, but not the other way around, you are pretty goddamn confused. Stop watching war propaganda films and you may start thinking more clearly.
Signed,
Another Disabled Vet USMC
double eh? "i don't like people who attack military snipers" ??
LOL, you know that in nearly every war snipers are so hated that when captured get the worse treatment of all, do you. In fact a few relatives of mine told me the units would quietly kill anyone of their own that took snipers prisoners instead of "disposing them as they deserve"...
eh? I read you but I don't get you. You sure don't mean that the US is not pursuying several sets of goals and policies in the Middle East since WW2, don't you? In fact, it all started by blocking the French and the British from reopening Suez...
The reality is that Obama the puppet is only regurgitating what his bosses tell him. Over the centuries, the Rothschilds, Morgans, Rockefellers et al have always benefitted from wars and chaos, often playing both sides. This time will be no different.
Delightfully astute first comments (except for the "Plutocrats bitchez" first post attention grab). Enjoyed both article and debate.
Thanks, RCWhalen for your continuing contribution.
i.
Bankguy,
Who are you to determine what ZH is or is not? Seriously. I value your contributions to these threads and also suggest that you 'hold fire' on this censorship bullcrap. There can be no debate without opposition and no growth without challenge.
Just chill and offer your point of view. Don't insist that others not be heard.
Shorter version of article: Has Obama actually gotten it through his thick skull that Iranian oil and Iranian oil wealth ultimately belong to the Western oligarchs? Bravo.
I like what whalen put's on the table. I furthermore adore the fact that ZH does not play to a partisan script. ZH gives us the ability to construct our own opinions based upon a varied data selection menu. No shocker that reasonable conclusions based on empirical evidence tend to favor 'conservatism' (not neocon horseshit) or 'progressive' utilis fatuus regime supportive crap.
He isn't particularly gifted in his presentation skills but the point is made if you are willing to overlook the rushed and somewhat careless nature of his/her? delivery.
Bank guy, I enjoy Sol's perspective. This article points out the shortcomings of our hegemony. Your characterization as neocon promotion is a complete misread.
He is saying Obama has a weak hand. The point being when you play with a weak hand you cause escalation. He is criticizing the intervention as political.
Your buddy Goldman is a staunch Zionist. He preaches everything global elitist banker. He is the penultimate corporate fascist. His superficial intelligence is tainted by religious and elite arrogant bias. He needs to look in the mirror and be ashamed.
Regardless of the merit of Iranian intervention at this time, dimwit libs would have a much stronger hand if they had been turning up the ANWAR oil, Canadian Keystone oil, California coast oil, and Florida coast Chinese/Cuban Oil down cards.
Sol Sanders is not worthy of ZeroHedge. Better to bring back MadHedgeFundTrader and Leo Kolivakis!
Sol Sanders has:
- too little originality
- too much dreary neo-con touting for American war mongering
- too much a tout for the fake 'Republican - Democrat' parties in the US and the oligarchy behind them
- too much a tout for standard American - Zionist propaganda lies against Iran and the Muslim world ...
Iran, like Saudi Arabia, does deserve scorn for its executions, torture, and brutal laws, penalties and repression (as does the US, with only a different style for these crimes) ...
But the Sol Sanders neocon war-mongering junk is bullsh*t, and non-original bullsh*t at that, it really does not belong here on ZH.
To represent the pro-Zionist warmonger point of view, at least have someone original and not so dull ... like maybe that David Goldman, the Wall Street guy who writes on Asia Times Online both under his own name and the name of 'Spengler' by which he is better known.
That Goldman 'Spengler' writes well, has lots of unique provocative ideas (although at times nearly genocidal), and would create some real stormy debates here ... not like this dreary, ordinary Sol Sanders.
Plutocrats bitchez.