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Sol Sanders | Follow the money No. 82 -- India: a perfect storm
Latest from uncle Sol. A version of this column is scheduled to be published in The Washington Times, Monday, Labor Day, Sept.5, 2011 -- Chris
Follow the money No. 82 -- India: a perfect storm
Sol Sanders <solsanders@cox.net>
Pollyannas had looked to“the emerging economies” – China, India, Brazil, etc. -- for growth to help ward off worldwide economic recession, as the Western economies and Japan stumbled.
It’s clear that isn’t going to happen. China is trimming its sails to dampen inflation, braking unlimited infrastructure expansion at any cost to produce jobs while trying to meet increasing constraints on its subsidized exports. Brazil, with a new administration enmeshed in traditional corruption, faces a commodities export crash while fighting off devastating import competition for its domestic manufacturing from its major customer, China.
But largely ignored -- what with the dramatic Euro crisis and a threat of double-dip American recession – is the more important emerging economy, India, now slipping back into its traditional morass. At stake was the hope 1.5 billion people, almost a quarter of the human race, could move with democratic values into a modern society. That possibility was long seen as counter to “the Chinese model” which economically successful, possibly temporarily, is essentially oldstyle Oriental despotism.
Heading the list of New Delhi’s woes is a leadership deficit. Italy-born, 64-year-old Mme. Sonia Gandhi, widow of a former prime minister and backseat driver to the ruling Congress Party, has been secreted away to New York for cancer surgery [if by a noted Indian émigré physician]. She leaves behind a power vacuum, not only in her ruling Party but in government. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, a technocrat, increasingly is drowning in massive corruption, growing inflation and a flight of capital escaping crippling bureaucracy.
Rahul Gandhi, Mme. Sonia’s 41-year-old son, has yet to prove he has the charisma of three generations of independence leader Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru’s family who imperiously have dominated politics – if, arguably, preserving national unity. Caught in India’s worship of priestly figures, a traditional hunger strike by an anti-corruption hero, Anna Hazare, was mishandled. [Mr. Singh has had to backtrack from Mr. Hazare’s arrest.] The government, correctly, is terrified Mr. Hazare’s high-minded tactics could be appropriated by mushrooming anti-government, anti-business campaigns, further paralyzing governance and the economy.
India’s international role, too, is in jeopardy. Naïve Washington hopes for a U.S.-India alliance against Beijing’s growing aggressiveness have been dashed. American forgive and forget efforts have dawdled in extending nuclear and other advanced technologies after New Delhi defied the world to build atomic weapons -- matched by Pakistan with Chinese and North Korean assistance. American vendors recently were shockingly left off the short list for a $10 billion fighter plane bid. There’s suspicion stricter American anti-bribery laws than notorious European “incentives” played a role. A 25-year-old case against Mme. Sonia’s deceased husband, Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, for a Swedish purchase was recently shelved, more or less indecisively.
Meanwhile, decades of addiction to a Moscow alliance continues among India’s diplomats, illogical as it might be what with growing Russian arms delivery failures and Moscow’s massive military sales to China. Furthermore, India’s proposed huge overseas defense purchases may not meet its security requirements. Mr. Singh has called India’s greatest threat “Maoist” insurgencies in a dozen Indian states. New Delhi and state governments have passed responsibility for their suppression back and forth with little success. These social conflicts grew out of pro-Chinese proclivities of Bengal’s Communists whose 30-year hold on Calcutta, India’s second city, was recently broken, probably only temporarily.
After three and a half wars, negotiations continue fitfully to reach a compromise with Pakistan, the twin regime bloodily carved out of British India over half a century ago. With its own Muslim population as large as Pakistan’s, Indian leaders increasingly appreciate an implosion there would threaten its own breakup. But terrorists with tentacles leading from Pakistani military through the perennial dispute over Indian occupation of Kashmir are torturous, made even more dangerous by occasional clashes of regular forces such as took place in early September. Washington, after fitful attempts, has failed to mediate the feud, caught between aiding a bankrupt Islamabad and attempting to warm post-Soviet Cold War relations with India.
This picture is clouded further by New Delhi’s fishing in troubled ethnic waters in Afghanistan, and Pakistan itself. The Pushtoon terrorist hotbed on the Afghan border is where Pakistani, Indian and Chinese interests conflict. China, meanwhile, continues a campaign of seduction of Pakistan, a massive Tibet buildup, including missiles and probably nuclear weapons, as well as infiltration in the Himalayan border states of Nepal and Bhutan and at both eastern and western ends of the 1500-mile frontier.
sws-09-02-11
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The author does not show much understanding of India or its situation (I have lived in India for a while). Its a mish-mash of items cobbled together for an audience who knows even less.Lot of the items will not have a large bearing on economic situation, speaking of which:
On the economic front, inflation is a big problem for India (as it is for china) however, the choice they have is to either have high inflation or high unemployment and the government is choosing the former. This does two things: keeps the masses (large population) doing something other than rioting and barely feed themselves. There is no third choice. From 2003 US dollar has signficantly depreciated against other currencies (e. g Brazil 57%), however, against Indian rupee the deval has been only about 7%, largely because Indian govt has also been printing boatload of money, so the currencies have been running parallel. The printing has caused large inflation that is being now felt by lower and middle classes but until they have jobs they grin and bear it. The reserve bank is behind the curve on inflation and on one hand the need to show they care about keeping inflation low by incresing rates, they are printing money on the other hand to keep growth and jobs. I am not sure how this converges in future, more likley to results in getting to one extreme and change of govt in the elections.
India has also been active member of "synchronous soap drop in public toilet" experiment that US has propagated. The cocenpt is simple to understand, if all the soverigns drop the soap in the public toilet at the same time, then there is nobody to f&*^ them. US started with huge financial ponzi and they evangelized this solution through G20 nations and other coordination whereby they have encouraged all soverign nations to print, devalue, take on more debt, bailout, and stimulus at the same time under the pretext that it was necessary to save the world. Suprisingly it has worked so far, however, the moment the experiment gets put of phase you can imagine the results and the nations start to find those dropping soap attractively positioned. India/Chine and others have been very willing participants in this experiment.
If the stock markets in India pick up anytime in near future it will not be because the conditions to invest there would be attractive, but because of how bad things get elsewhere and at some point we will see soverigns getting out of phase and the wind down start in earnest.
The Indian reserve bank works actively to keep the value of rupee down. Even though exports is only 10-20% of economy (purportedly), it is still the engine that drives the growth of economy. Entire cities like bangalore and pune will become urban wastelands if the rupee appreciates 50% or so because the entire software services industry will come to a standstill. The Indian upper middle class (mostly IT professionals) will not be able to sustain unemployment or reduced salary because they are all highly leveraged. Average price of apartments(condos) in bangalore is around 200K right now and average price of single family independent homes is closer to 350K.
India (especially the bigger cities) is a property bubble waiting to burst. It may not happen immediately but it has to happen as this kind of price rise is unsustainable. Real estate prices have almost doubled in the last 5 years in most big cities.
" India (especially the bigger cities) is a property bubble waiting to burst. " agreed ........
far too much bureaucracy there and an inherent inability to react quickly to problems.
I remember going to what was meant to be a super luxury condominium building in Malabar Hill once which is one of the most expensive areas in Mumbai . Property prices in Malabar Hill are astronomic and yet in typical Indian fashion ( I'm sorry but they simply cannot organise a piss up in a brewery ) their condominium laws are atrocious as far as maintenance of common areas. So one could be coming out of a multimillion dollar condominium in Malabar Hill with stunning features and extravagant furnishings and yet in the fire stairwell it wouldn't be unusual to see red stains on the walls where people have been spitting out beetle nut they have been chewing which is actually almost scarlet colour when it's in the mouth.
"synchronous soap drop in public toilet" experiment
Awesome analogy.
Sovereigns/elites think the other 97% do not know how to starve. That may be true, but the sovereigns/elites will not endure the stench.
There are consequences known and imaginable. There must be other consequences, too.
dissapointed with the article...i was expecting more economic points...
If you are from India, write an article! Start a blog...
India is too big to be governed as one country without a central benevolent king possessing a selfless control on 1,000,000,000 Indians,
Can't be done otherwise.
The disUnited States is in the same predicament, Too Big to Govern.
The state of Californica is Too big to govern. It needs broken in three.
The City of Lost Angeles, or Yew Nork is getting closer to what, in size and scope, can be governed.
When will the populace and those who seek pwer wake up to this fact, proven time and time again??
Anony-
You hit the jackpot! +1,000,000,000,000,000!!!
Large, non-homogenous populations are impossible to govern. A few million racially, ethnically, spiritually homogenous people is a maximum. Most heterogeneous communities of a few thousand could compromise, but 1billion+ is far too many. Hell, 1million is too many unless they are of similar belief.
Radical devolution of power back to the state/county/community level is the ONLY way to fix these problems.
Got gold?
I do, and though it would be far far better to now choose to de-globalize, localize, throw the One Worlders out of their comfortable offices, they have too much invested now.
So we will have to do as we always do: wait until it is thrust upon us, when we have no other choice and then cry about the loss of our freedoms.
Only those who expect and prepare for it now will emerge triumphant. I only hope me and mine are among them and that I continue to take the steps necessary to endure, survive, and hopefully prosper during the coming tumult.
You, too.
Math makes things concise:
BIG = FAIL
Huge country equals huge lethargic ineffective out-of-touch central government...sound familiar?
New York or LA-sized governing unit sounds about right. Like Singapore.
I'll explain how the indian economy will collapse:-
1) govt issues bonds for all fertilizers and petroleum bonds and inflation.
2) they need to keep (always) rupee above 45 vs USD to sustain export industry and the inflation.
3) rbi can't handle the 12% inflation and REPO RATE is already 8.5% (highest in the world)
4) all the govt bonds will increate more inflation.
INFLATION WILL KILL INDIA.
the only thing which will revive india is our gold and silver.
I work for a call center and I see every month more and more US companies are increasing their numbers here. I feel pity for US people.
Their direct loss is our direct gain (for now).
This'll all end badly and major export dependant cities like bangalore, and other cities will crumble like DETROIT.
I'm planning to buy agriculture land and prepare for the worst.
EVERY major nation-state will end up being KILLED because they ALL rely on a model that's unsustainable.
India will shake and rattle earlier than many because it doesn't have physical resources. India became a paper-tiger, a cheap date for the big multinationals to ravage (chew up cheap labor). That which cannot last forever won't...
I wouldn't limit my pessimism on export-dependent cities only. Think of the corollary: import-dependent cities (an extreme example would be Dubai's Palm Island; and Dubai has OIL!).
The best horses at the glue factory are: Canada and Russia. The machine continues its (downward) grind....
Seer,
I work for a call center in bangalore and I see every month more and more US companies are increasing their numbers here. I feel pity for US people.
Their direct loss is our direct gain (for now). Our call center and software collegues are almost following US baby boomers life style now. You should see it for your self. The Indian economy (esp bangalore) is running from spill-over effect of the (dollar denominated) jobs.
qe1 and qe2 effects is still not over on the indian economy (inflation). I don't know why RBI is desperate to keep rupee at 45 levels. We have 121 crore (1.21 billion) people and only 1 % of the population is directly and indirectly dependent on the export industry.
They can allow the rupee to appreciate (free market) and decrease the fuel rate (import).
All major banks and retail outlets are shipping their jobs (back end - call center jobs) to india.
99.95 % people in india think RECESSION is over and they think that every thing is fine.
They also think that USA is a great-rich country :-) with not debt.
People here will not know what hit them. I'm sorry for them. Our company and others in bangalore are recruiting day and night (thousands of jobs)
Sputnik, I am so glad u posted this. Its the samething I have been telling my American friends here. Go to India to get a job, no way anyone wants to hire in US unless u r really really good or important or connected. Its over here for jobs.
One simple reason why jobs which have left the United States will never come back..
MINIMUM WAGE + Bureaucratic Legal processes.
You can hire a person in China or India for 60 cents an hr when the average minimum wage is $6.50 per hr in this country. Add to that other legal/Insurance requorement and it shoots to $11. (so an 8 hr workday for a single employee cost any american company an average $88 in USA v/s $8 in India/China ( so manufacturers are saving approx %80 per hr per job shifted to INdia or China.) you do the math over a year for say 1000 employees. for 1 company.
Also the fact that India and China hold 50% of the world population makes it more feasable to produce and sell in China/India region and then ONLY export to western countries. these are growing economies and one point to note.. while the families in the west are vying to buy an additional car for their family ( which makes this car purchase optional) families in India/China are buying their 1st car and there are 300-400 million cars to be brought in next decade over there.. so car manufacturing along with 2000 ancilarry industries will shift to this region no matter how corrupt the place..
My knowledge of India suggests that India may suffer from high Inflation, poverty and rampant corruption.. but it also has its positive elements..
- Surplus Job Availability for the foreseeable future for anyone wishing to be employed.
- socialists form of governance in a democracy so policies enacted by the govt are usually for the welfare of the people not the corporates. you may pay bribe to a doctor to treat you before anyone else (the bribe is paid not for treatment but for priority in treatment)... you will be treated and you will go home without haveing to worry about your insurance coverage or thought of bankrupty due to medical costs.
- Strong judiciary where even the prime minister can be brought to his knees by a commoner.so legal recourse is a possibility for any wrong doing
- family support system ( joint family) so loss of one's source of employment is not the end of the world and you have an assurance of making up the losses with your family;s support..
- 20% of worlds population along with surplus foodgrain production ( its a different story if the government fails to deliver this food to its people.... the thing to understand is there is enough food supply in INdia for its entire population and still more to export so if push comes to shove there will be efficient implementation.
I personally dont see any reason why this 10% inflation or 8.5 % repo rate should cause any problem.. India has been dealing with 6-7% inflation and 6-8% repo rates its entire life. ( agreed these rates may he highest in the world) but Indian Government conducts business in Indian Rupees. so any impact of the western worlds financial crisis or any collapse of USD/EURO will only impact the $50 billion odd worth of Indian exports anually.. an amount which (in my opinion) the government does not mind incurring. Point to Note. In the 2007-08 crisis there was no impact in India except the stock market correction.. Not a Single job lost by anyone to my knowledge.. albeit many unemployed subsequently got jobs as more western companies relocated to India to shore up their balance sheets.
As for another ancillary fact - India holds approx 11000 tons of accounted gold ( 1000 tons held by the Reserve Bank of India for the Indian Government) and 10000 tons held by the private citizens which will "NEVER" be confisicated... as it is usually in Physical form ( hidden from the watchful eyes of the government like some people who hide money under a mattress)
What happens if gold falls "TO" say $500 per ounce .. will it impact the INdian community .. the short answer is NO.. gold is an obsession in India and if the rate falls down the indian people will buy even more tonnage of gold.. like they have been doing for the past 5 millenia...The fall in price of gold ( if at all) is bound to make them Happy...
I blame CNBC for the propaganda. Oh, BTW, People watch CNBC (Indian version) and their propaganda with all the panel of anals that keep saying buy buy buy everything is good. Some of the bizzare comments were that the problem in the US was isolated and will not affect India. I could only wish that no sucker bought that story.
I'll tell you one more thing, how TV clowns describe (great financial analysts)
After talking about dollar crisis and US debt problem and euro issues, greek and all PIIGS and all other things they dare to tell "HOWEVER, FUNDAMENTALS OF INDIA ARE STRONG"
How come fundamentals can be strong if dollar and euro are toast??
I remember one comment from our "finance mninster" when DUBAI problem occured.
He told "it is just a small amount that dubai is unable to repay and it won't affect india in any way" what a bastard.....
When dubai cannot pay small amount (small debt) imagine the situation if it was big debt.
Fundamentals are strong because 80% of the companies listed on the sensex or the NSE deal solely inside India.. they are not impacted adversly with the volatility in global economy.. the only companies impacted will be the IT sector companies.. but even they know that any volatility will only bring more business as the world rishes towards lower costs..
what was the net impact of 2008 on India's economy - None
There are approx 1 million people employed in India in IT sector.. if the entire technologuy sectore were to collapse INdian government will just nationallize these companies and hire the said individual.. Remember the Union of India is a "democratic socialist secular republic." as defined under its constitution and the government of India (however corrupt) still prefers to treat its citizenary over its corporates..
The fall in the markets in 2008 was only on account of FDI investments being repatriated to meet teir overseas demand.. but at any point that is only worth 20-30billion USD.. so if one were to discount this 20 odd billion of cash outflow.. the impact is as said by the tv host "MANAGEABLE"
You must be joking. The top companies in NSE nowadays get a significant chunk of their revenues from overseas or from export. Take for example, Tata motors. Tata motors owns jaguar and land rover. Take for example, Hindalco. they own novellus. I can go on and on. <br/>Nationalising IT companies - you must again be joking. After nationalising, where will they get their business from?<br/> Indian govt treats citizenry over corporates - again a joke. I live in India and I can tell you a thousand stories where people have been displaced forcefully and illegally so that corporates can buy/get the and at dirt cheap rates. Why do corporates in India go to the govt to get land instead of getting it in open market at fair market price? <br/>
You seem to be drinking the koolaid that indian media is giving you.. Do not believe then.. The ground realities are different.
That too :-) Fundamentals are strong, my ass.
The property values keep going up. There is no down. Cost of everything is up. I have never seen anything go down in India.
Canada OK. Friendly and non-corrupt.
NONE of my money will ever go to Russia, no way. Danger!
But, a great reply, so have a green on me!
@bharat
based on FOFOA?
No, based on multiple sources - I haven't even looked at the FOFOA data. The official data itself for the past 20 years shows legal imports of gold of 10,000+ tons. Even if imports in the past 40 years before that (1950-1990) were the same (about 10,000 tons), that would bring the known gold holdings to 20,000 tons. And India has always been an importer of gold, even in the past. I estimate holdings at 25,000 tons of gold minimum, which translates to about 750 million ounces. Every $100 increase in gold translates to an increase in wealth of $75 billion (the Rupee at 46 to the dollar, is a huge multiplier to that number).
The banks are lending here against gold as collateral to the retail crowd at 60% of the gold value.
The western central bank manipulation of gold has helped out the gold importers immensely. I feel sorry for the holders of paper derivatives such as GLD. Ultimately the game will end and GLD holders will find that their tangible value is 2% or 3% of the actual gold price.
One more thing: it is the media that projects perceptions about emerging markets. The people in the emerging markets mind their own business and keep doing their work. Its not our fault that the rotten mainstream media creates illusions about anything, they have their own agenda to achieve.
I suggest you check out FOFOA. He writes about hyperinflation and a repricing of gold (freegold or PRG) exclusively...similar conclusions. Estimates on the site were just upward of 13K tonnes though (that may have been private holdings though). We joked that Indian brides would be the new rich.
@bharat,
I agree with lasvegas above, FOFOA is really worth a look as he has detail-studied gold and the reasons he thinks it blast off at the proper time.
Disclosure: I contribute to his blog. And hold gold!
There does seem to be a kind of fantasy thinking (among some) about many of the emerging markets. First time I went to Brazil, I was impressed by the low prices of tennis shoes as I passed by store fronts. On second glance, I noticed that the prices listed were the monthly payments for the shoes. In total, people pay 2-3 times the amount paid in the U.S. and many other countries. That's just an example and I could cite many others. The middle class is being badly squeezed as violent crime increases and govt/in-bed-with corporations advance their stranglehold of corruption. Sao Paulo traffic and pollution are depressing.
The Brazilian people are on the whole fantastic and business is growing due to a young population, abundant resources, and some other factors, but the rosy picture of an emerging economy arriving to save the future is badly distorted.
Brazil is the country of the future, and always will be.
Brazil is a mine and a big Soy farm and a party place.
don't forget the amazon, home of the original ingredients of about every known pharmaceutical known to man.
@ Tao 4,
Thanks for the update on Brazil. I do remember reading here at the Hedge that Brazil's central bank just cut their rate, possibly indication a acslowdown in CHINA, their biggest export market (I believe). And now India may be weakening.
That's 3 of the 4 BRICs. What of Russia?
Thanks for a boots-on-the-ground view of Brazil. Didn't realize inflation for necessities was that bad.
Doesn't look promising for the World Cup and the Olympics, does it?
Do Chen and Anon - if you are still reading this thread... Imagine having to make installment payments to buy tennis shoes. Cars are also double or more what you pay right across the border in Argentina. It's not standard inflation the way we think of it. Appears to be more a matter of government corruption leading to monopolies on imports along with taxation structures. Corruption is everywhere and standard. Most big businesses factor in the payoffs and manage, but the powerless get screwed. The boom is for real, but the place also feels strangled by corruption, overcrowding (business is mainly concentrated in big cities), and weird politics where leftist idealism is used to cover huge corruption and oligarchy enrichment schemes. Crime, which used to be mainly robberies, is increasingly becoming violent. A friend's wife was in the bank to do some business. Apparently, a criminal positioned in the bank to watch customers cell phoned out to his crime partner that she had just withdrawn some cash. When she went out to her car, the outside partner stuck a gun in her face and took everything. She knew enough to hand it over without hesitation because the criminals have started a code of killing noncompliers instantly, just to make a point to all future "customers". Not an easy place to live, though still great in many other respects.
I came back, Tao 4.
Wow re huge crime there in Brazil, and the corruption there seems to be worse than in Peru (where it is fairly bad).
We had a guy we know Brazil long ago. He passed by a nice looking place in Rio to eat. They had outdoor seating so that's what he asked for. The waiter sort of tried to discourage him, but... As he was starting his meal, a motorcycle (scooter?) roared up, and he had his LUNCH stolen!
Violent street crime with guns is not common in Peru. There is a lot of street crime, and can be threats at knife point (etc.), but few guns. I have been to Peru some 25 times (mostly to help out with our bearing import business there and my wife's family is mostly there), and it never got as bad as you report from Brazil.
So, India is now out. China, out, no thanks. Brazil now out. Russia? Forget about Russia.
Sorry BRICs! I'll keep my money here, some in Peru and hold a bunch of gold.
Great reporting Tao 4.
+ $1880 and green
You have helped temper my enthusiasm for the Country.
The special that Scott Pelle did on "60 Minutes" on Brazil covered none of this.
Although the interest rate I've been getting on my CDs and the rise in BRL vs the dollar have been profitable trades. I'm due to roll over some on Tuesday and need to decide whether or not to do so or bail.
The US is filled with Brazilian illegals. They all wear the shirts, wave the flags, talked about how great Brazil is. Well if you have so much pride - go the fvck back. Love it when the national team was taken out fairly early in the last two world cups. The best in soccer/football. BS. Spain would have taken them apart.
I knew someone who had a office cleaner at their building who was from Brazil. She got endless Uncla Sam freebies like healthcare, school for her kid, food stamps et al. She was terrified to go back because Brazil sounded like hell on earth.
wah,wah
I am sorry but I disagree. I think India will follow USA and Europe into the dumps, but the effect is going to be less because of the huge increase in gold prices. There is going to be a huge inflow of liquidity that will sustain the economy and provide a buffer to the economic tsunami that is coming. Not that what the author has described is untrue, but it is a simplistic explanation and forecast.
How is the gold distributed? If it's equally distributed across a fair percentage of the population or owned by the government then sure, if it's owned by the elite it won't do a damn thing ... they won't shore up consumption by themselves and the capital will flee if taxes are increased (ignoring some FDR type action).
A stack of gold owned by the 0.1% just sitting there increasing in value will do bugger all for their economy.
Nope, the gold is spread out across every segment of society - rich & middle class. There is already a wealth effect. Also, people are holding on to the gold and not selling it.
Just returned back from that country. It is polarized, disillusioned and confused. Advanced stages.... something I believe is happening here too.
How did serious people end up writing serious articles for all of us?
Thanks godness they do. What a fine break from the free-for-all on the open thread.
This is a very complicated world, and there are 'issues' in all directions. The perspectives here are true gems for those of us who come to learn what others know.
Thanks for the education posters
Good overview, but I would doubt PM Singh views the Naxals as the greatest threat. Seems he is just trying to make nice to ISI's Pasha.
The Mumbai LeT attack a fews years back in Mumbai greatly increased tensions between ND and Islamabad, but it was refreshing---if that is the right word---when a deadly July bombing in a Mumbai business district, which looks to have been a purely domestic business dispute, did not immediately set the Indo-Paki border alight.
PM Singh has not exactly played a deft hand in the Hazare hunger strike, failing to anticipate how it would resonate even amongst the young technocrat class. Also troubling is the wekaness in the BSE, and the fact that the rupee has been trading at the higher end of its range with the dollar (occasionally breaching 46/$). Troubling signs.
Regarding China, what is irritating New Delhi now is that the PRC is going about damming a lot of the Himalyan water flow that India agriculture requires. Already there is drought (though some pockets of severe monsoons caused Mumbai flooding this week and deadly floods last year around Leh. Another concern for New Delhi vis-a-vis China is Burma (Myanmar), which is today pretty much a wholly owned subsidiary of the PRC. India missed out on exploiting Burma's gas and oil reserves, lost every single mining concession (even the one given up by Ivanhoe) to the Chinese, and now sees itself bookended by the Chinese who are in the process of establishing naval facilities in Burma and at Gwadar in Pakistan. Domestic politics have simply taken India out of a game they can ill afford to lose.
Good insights. It seems you are a resident of India or one who has experienced India from close proximity. I don't know if you know about this, but there is a website with a 10 minute video on corruption in India. Link below. Reach your own conclusions.
http://www.truthaboutindiacorruption.org/
I enjoyed both the article and your astute views as always chindit13.
I hope India is able to pull together and advance. They logically should be an ally of the USA, but logic is not the ruler of us all...
Whatever its problems, India DOES have an appreciation for relative democracy and freedom. This is their one big advantage over China. Is it enough to overcome India's other problems (Muslims, corruption, etc.)? That I do not know. I have never been to India... And so cannot comment with any authority, not even made-up authority.
DoChen,@14:18
I agree, tough call on India.
But I'll be bold here, (like this is a newsflash).
With a Muslim population of almost 50%, it will not end well for India.
Not w/ Paki, and China against her, Afghan right around the corner,and 50 other religions in the country.
Badda boom, Bada bing.