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Sol Sanders | Follow the money No. 98 | Moves speed up on a complicated Asian chessboard
Latest from Uncle Sol. A version of this column is scheduled for publication in The Washington Times, Monday, December 26, 2011. Merry Christmas. Chris
Follow the money No. 98 | Moves speed up on a complicated Asian chessboard
Sol W. Sanders <solsanders@cox.net>
A new era of increasing instability is opening in East Asia.
The death of North Korean leader Kim Il Jong is only adding another, if explosive, element to an already volatile equation:
· China enters a period of substantially slower economic growth, if not a crash, on the eve next autumn of a takeover by a new generation of undistinguished Communist Party leaders.
· Japan wrestles with efforts to remake its domestic politics, but buoyed by its always magnificent – if constipated – bureaucracy, pursues a security buildup despite, ironically, a left-leaning governing party precariously clinging to power.
· South Korea’s miraculous ascendancy to world economic leadership and prosperity is imperiled by its export-led strategy now facing world economic shrinkage, and with the prospect of continued harassment from the North.
· North Korea attempts continuance of its highly leverage Communist monarchy but its balancing act could well succumb to both internal rivalries and Western pressure to halt its profitable foreign arms sales.
· Taiwan goes to another democratic election in January under the evil eye of Beijing that fears recent increasingly binding economic ties may be countered by “nationalists” intent on maintaining de facto independence.
· The Obama Administration has made new commitments, particularly in Southeast Asia, of resistance to aggressive Chinese claims despite rapidly reducing the navy as it backs out of two, long and inconclusive wars.
Beijing’s high growth rate – despite its majority largely left out of the Coastal Cities boom – is dropping precipitously, because of inherent weaknesses built into its state capitalism and the world economic downturn. Having abandoned Maoism two decades ago, conventional wisdom held such rapid growth essential to sustain one-party, elitist rule. While there is no organized national opposition, there are increasing signs local Communist cadre have lost control. Massive infrastructure overexpansion, declining export prospects and untenable internal debt levels could produce a breakdown.
Furthermore, Pyongyang provides new concern for Bejiing’s conflicted view of North Korea. China’s aid supports Pyongyang at the same time North Korea rejects “the China model”, the Kim leadership believing – after a failed trial -- it could not maintain control were widespread private initiative permitted. Contrary to conventional wisdom, refugee flows from an implosion resulting from the burden of one of the world’s largest militaries and developing weapons of mass destruction would not be the principal threat. What Beijing fears most would be Korean reunification, which led the young Communist China to risk intervention in the stalemated Korean War for control of the peninsular.
Again, conventional comparisons of Korean reunification to Germany are inappropriate. Assuming China could not prevent an internal crackup which might come suddenly – as it did to once seemingly impregnable East Germany and model Communist dictatorship Romania – South Korea could absorb a North Korean colony, and, in fact, longer term turn it to economic advantage. To the consternation of Japan and the U.S., too, as well as China, the world might suddenly face a strong, new nuclear armed power.
As it has for a century, much will depend on China’s relationship with Japan, always uppermost in Beijing’s calculations. Beijing has rejected Tokyo’s proposal for defusing the Japan [East] Sea flashpoint by joint development of gas. Meanwhile, despite the leftwing careers of many now serving cabinet members and its declining population, Tokyo continues to move to quality manufacturing, heightened industrial R&D, and consolidating defenses with purchase of F35s from the U.S. [As always, Tokyo sees joint manufacturing arrangements enhancing Japan’s technology.] The current U.S. defense appropriation dropped funds for moving American forces from Okinawa to Guam; probably not in the strategic interests of either country given the Island’s unique geographic centrality. The Japanese are pushing a trilateral strategic relationship with India and the U.S. – which may again include Australia now that Canberra is lifting its export ban on uranium to New Delhi – in a not very subtle effort to counter China’s Indian Ocean expansion, a continuing Tibet buildup and encroachment on northern India and Pakistan, and central Asian initiatives including Afghanistan. Moves to end Japan’s postwar ban on arms exports could be strategically significant, negotiated, possibly, as part of the Obama Administration’s Trans Pacific Partnership still running up against protectionist Japanese agricultural interests.
Whatever else, pieces are moving rapidly on the Asian chessboard. But as always, unanticipated events are likely to dictate eventual outcome of the best laid plans of mice and allies.
sws-12-23-11
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The world is broke and broken.
China may agree to Korean reunification eventually as they will have their own problems (like the rest of us) and this will tend to be the more natural state of affairs in the very long term.
Shorter term we are all involved in a giant clusterf...
Yawn..... - even stratfor is better than this stuff - or is he standing in for them?
Europe's collapse creates a geo political free for all. The critical flashpoint is and remains the Middle East...albeit North Asia is the very definition of a flashpoint so anything in theory can happen. My personal view is that outside of the ME the entire planet is terrified of war wounded USA right now. "there is no more dangerous animal than a wounded one backed in a corner." and the USA is the very definition of both wounded and in a corner right now.
+1. Great Point. Power hates vacuum. The current "roll back" of western civilization; as epitomized by the concurrence of the imminent collapse of EUrozone and the debt tsunami reset of US economy, will leave US governance in limbo; as military budgets and US foreign policy suffer from this collateral damage of mega misallocation of financial, human and ecological resources under the aegis of pax americana of last thirty years.
It may entice, in the current sense of national frustration, the US MIC to start a "new military front" in Asia, to nip in the bud the nuclear pretentions of new entrants like Iran and N. Korea, to reaffirm US hegemony on military front, temporarly lost in the IRaq and Pak/Afghan military containment fiascos that are now festering dangerously.
2012-2013 could be new tipping point on military front as possible outcome to financial/economic game changer scenario, as was Sarajevo 1914.
Neo con tripe. The economy has collapsed in case "Uncle Sol" hasn't noticed.
Wildcard in Japan are the reactors. Anything resembling 'stability' in east Asia requires #Fukushima to fade into that long good night.
The chances of something like this taking place are almost nil. The operator has no idea what is taking place inside three reactor buildings or the status of over a thousand tons of reactor fuel in unstable storage. Escape from predicament is dependent upon two things that are outside Japan's control:
- ground stability (in the form of no further earthquakes),
- available funds to allow operators to maintain Fukushima along with Japan's OTHER fifty nuclear reactors.
These other reactors are also largely antiques, suffered undisclosed damage during the 3/11 earthquake, which have been poorly maintained (with accompanying falsified documentation) and are located in reactor 'parks' with many reactor units adjacent to each other. Should one reactor be damaged, it risks all the others. At Fukushima Dai-ichi there are two additional reactors in the same complex (units 5 and 6) which were damaged during the earthquake and cannot be brought back into service yet pose a severe risk when their fuel loads are added to the reactor risk calculations.
- Japan is flat broke and its days of being self-funding are nearing an end.
- Japan's positive current account depends on automobile sales ... in a world where automobile customers are also broke with lending mechanisms -- the means to support both sales and auto-infrastructure -- collapsing everywhere at once,
- Japan government is reviled in Japan b/c of its mishandling of the reactors and its bias toward the industry at the cost of public good will. This poisonous relationship exists w/ radiation diseases not yet manifest in the population. Once these diseases begin to manifest themselves in places such as Tokyo the possibility of unrest on a large scale cannot be ruled out.
- This unrest would effect Japan's funding putting more funding risk onto Japan's fleet of time bombs.
Physics of the reactors: the operator has taken no steps to remediate or even locate reactor fuel melted from reactor pressure vessels. Instead, there has been a stream of publicity stunts designed to relieve operator and the reactor industry from scrutiny. Possibilities of calamity are multiplied by seven as there are that many independent fuel loads in the Fukushima complex, leaving out a common spent fuel pool (3 thousand tons) and the fuel within reactor units 5 and 6. There are almost 2 THOUSAND TONS of fissile/fertile material at risk within the damaged buildings which in the context of an 'incident' could become fallout distributable over Japan as well as East Asia.
Keep in mind, the risks diminish ... but ONLY AFTER PERIODS THAT ARE DECADES LONG. Without expensive remediation the threats that exist now will exist unchanged ten years from now with the events of one day (a modest earthquake) able to set total destruction of the Fukushima reactors and the surrounding area in motion.
Chernobyl reactor is still a large-scale menace even though its fuel is solidified into a glassy compound and does not need continuous water cooling.
The cores of Fukushima all require constant cooling and will rapidly reach melting/burning temperature without it. Chernobyl melted in 1986.
- Criticality in a reactor 'running away' fast-neutron chain reaction within a confined space leading to an explosion. An explosion in one reactor would trigger secondary criticalities/explosions in other cores similarly situated. This would be similar to a nuclear attack on Japan with a large, dirty bomb.
- Hydrovolcano or steam explosion with core material coming into contact with a large amount of free water requiring the abandonment of the site.
- Fire in spent fuel caused by earthquake or structural break demolishing a derelict reactor building -- a concern in reactor unit 4. Exposed fuel in spent fuel would require an abandonment of the site.
- A hydrogen explosion taking place within a derelict reactor building destroying the building and requiring the abandonment of the site.
- A generalized release of radiation requiring the abandonment of the site. Post-abandonment, the reactors would increase in temperature and burn or -- in the case of units 5 and 6 would melt down in turn.
In any of the above the central part of Japan would be evacuated with millions of Japanese becoming refugees. In the event of a criticality event, fallout would cover the entire east-Asia region including coastal China and its hundreds of millions of inhabitants.
If central Japan becomes excessively radioactive the OTHER nuclear reactors on Japan mainland would in turn fall into risk category with the likelihood of SUBSEQUENT meltdowns and explosions with EVEN MORE radiation released into east Asia.
The reactors in Japan/Fukushima represent both nation extinguishing AND human extinction risk.
You can whistle past the graveyard now. We all need some good luck.
Excellent post! I would like to hear a rebuttal from one of the Junkers. Anytime we stop hearing about something as lethal as Fukashima you know we are in trouble.
Yes good post. The MSM not covering this at all. The Jeff Rense site has several articles every day on Fukushima.
Some Japan carmakers are considering moving to other countries (i.e. Indonesia), because there is a lack of electricity at home for any possible expansion (not that they require one when demand is collapsing), but still. If that happens, obviously less jobs in Japan in carmaking. Some domino effect from Fukushima beyond obvious. Even if doesn't play out as apocalyptic as you describe, still car manufacturing in Japan already seriously crippled.
Nicely done, Steve, better than the article.
Trust me when I tell you I've been whistling since 3/11...
yikes!
China has $$TRILLIONS$$ in cash and yet is a 3rd world country...while we have trillions in liabilities, an expanding military circling the globe, several wars going on, dying industries,and failure of leadership at many levels.
Who is worse off?
To answer your own question, just ask yourself which passport you prefer to have.....Chinese or U.S.?
Correction, GhostIsland29 - China has trillions in cash, which it will be having to pump into its own economy soon. However I agree with you - I feel that they are in a better position compared to the US right now.
I would have to say China, for right now, till asshole Obama signs the S-1867 Bill then were equal. NDAA Bill.
Good read: http://www.athenstalks.com/four-star-generals-write-new-york-times-op-ed-against-ndaa-and-indefinite-detention-americans?page=last
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Come on ZH spice this shit up will you. I know it is Christmas and all.
lightweight article, ZH can do better
More accidents waiting to happen :s