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Some signs of reversal in the Market?
Markets are rallying after today’s ISM figures. As we wrote earlier today, we reached some support levels this morning, as equities traded on very light volume. Currently both DAX and Stoxx 50 are flirting with negative trend lines formed over the past days. Today’s action might form a hammer, and we get another mega squeeze set up, although a little too early to predict at this stage. We will be back with more charts later this evening. For now, some important levels to keep in mind. Note the wedge in Morgan Stanley. It has gotten a lot of beating lately , and could bounce aggressively. Below Dax etc.
Stoxx 50.
ES Futures.
Watch out getting too bearish on MS here….
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ALL the TBTF banks have already failed. The governments are too afraid of a bankruptcy, so they changed the accounting rules so that bankrupt isn't bankrupt, accept evybody knows it really is.
Greece and the associated derivatives ARE big enough to push at least one of the TBTFs over the edge. Just think of Greece as the first of serveral hundred dominos. If just one bank goes when Greece goes, then another two banks will go, and you've got yourself a chain reaction. This is WHY they changed the accounting rules, and WHY they won't let anybody fail. But EVERYTHING (munis) is starting to go sour, and when it goes they will not be able to stop it.
Yeah, yeah it´s certainly terrible and those pushing impossible credit to support impossible bubbles in overabundant stuff will most certainly go belly up. But it won´t be the end of the world. The market will adjust and over time find equilibrium if left in peace to do so.
Economic theory is totally archaic. It preaches scarcity in a world that is swimming in overabundance of everything and in a ballooning wave of technological advances. Political adherents to these hopeless economic theories have been propping up their beliefs with ever more desperate measures for the last 30 years or so and by now the result is collapsing debt and price bubbles and wholesale flight to cash waiting for falling prices. It´s a classic market reaction. The market and Main St. always know best.
The dollar is about the boss of everything in this world.
As a result most everything that trades in financial markets trades against it.
A falling dollar means more dollars to book back home in the U.S. for multinationals which then lead the general stock market up. Also a falling dollar means price pressure on foreign producers of commodities which pay their expenses in local currency, in turn leading to demand for more dollars for the produce. Which probably means that most professional doomsayers are financed/influenced by Wall Street.
All trends run until they become impossibly overbought and then they collapse. Pushing of overpriced and overabundant stuff by ballooning credit finally failed in 2009. Now we have the great correction. Both price and credit bubbles will deflate for years to come. All the while we will continue to see incredible technological and productivity advances which will even further beat down prices.
Gotta a video feed of how the bulls did today after telling me "we're licking our chops to buy after the sell-off in Hong Kong!" You tell me how they look:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGns_QEUPTw&feature=player_detailpage
i told them to be as dastardly bullish as they could no less!
looks like we'll need some retraining.
Well, you never know, we could have a flurry of statements about no problems at Lehman (er...Kodak, Morgan Stanley, American Airlines, Greece, Goldman Suchs, insert name here) and QE3 and Warren Buffet buying 5 billion of Netflix and Citibank stock and some Sheik coming out of the closet to put 100 Billion into Bunk of Amerika to float the boat and fluff the cotton candy for a little while.
In a year or so 90% of those who have been preaching the death of the dollar, hyperinflation, mad max scenerios and freeze-dried food
will be going on about deflation. That´s when you want to be bullish stocks and commodities, at least for a while.
Now, as for all that freeze-dried food in storage maybe you should now start shorting producers of pet food.
FAZ up 12%:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FAZ&ql=1
guess whay Gold is just as fake and inflated and investment as AMR or AAPL or NFLX.. you guys all think its untouchable but the shit keeps hitting the fan and gold moves 20 bucks.. ooooh big move .. Paulson may not own amr but when gold crashes he will be the top on the list.. You all keep forgeting everything crashes when everything crashes.. always has always will..
Don't look now...but gold is moving up again.........
So's copper...
So's the dollar. Guess who will win?
Meltdown...
The basic situation; actual economics numbers show an economy improving slowly from last year; not a recession; public opinion is at all time lows; the public is capitulating on the stock market.
Oversimplification. Have you checked the LEI lately? Why HK is crashing? Why DAX, MICEX are crashing? GDP below 2% means recession is nearly certain. How about rising USD - this will kill earnings of big corporations.
That's grossly oversimplified analysis by you. You must be economist - right? The price always goes up - right?
Given your name, I assume you're committed to one view point and one only: final collapse. Who's oversimple?
Thanks God there are traders like this thetrader - to take opposite side of my trades.
I sure wish more people would trade on psuedo scientific econometric technical analsysis bullshit like this.
nonsense from the blogasphere.
I think they call that a sucker rally.
They're all sucker's rallies, until they stick.
by that time, the Phoenix Capitalites have missed the train, and spend the rest of the year screaming about the sky certainly falling
What if all the debt of those States were held by 10 banks. Then imagine that if the bonds of those states had to be written down 75%. Now imagine that when they get marked down the banks existing capital gets wiped out. Now imagine that those banks who have no capital (they are bankrupt) can't find any counterparties to trade with in, freezing them out of the credit markets. Now imagine a couple large banks in another country (hint hint MS) has exposure to these same banks and when the banks default this banks capital gets hit. Now imagine the head of the Central Bank of that countries bank says it is to big to fail so he then prints lots of new money to make sure that all debts can be paid.
Gee what a story that would be, enouigh of the Greece is to small to matter.
That's a helluva lot of ifs. Sounds like 2009 all over again.
AAAAAAAAAMMMMMMMEEEEEEEENNNNNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!!
oh yeah I forgot that greece is no solvent and that China is not imploding, rally on
what are you talking about
we will break new lows here from the august crash ie sub 1100, only thern expect a bounce
Greece's GDP, if ranked as a US state, would fall between Washington & Maryland. At 2% of total US GDP. What would we do if 1/50th of USA needed help? Well, so should they, its no big deal, stop with the theatrics.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! Oh, *wipes tears*, that was rich! Good one, bro!
Except of course it's not that simple. Portugal and Ireland are struggling to keep up with their austerity programs and would love to default on them. Spain isn't far behind with 20% plus unemployment and a much larger economy. And the banks across Europe are stuffed to the gills with all this crappy paper. And of course US money market funds are stuffed full of euro bank commercial paper (although that's dropping weekly as they refuse to renew)And to top the whole thing off, The 5 largest US banks have $325 trillion (with a T) of derivatives all interconnected with the major euro banks. Jump in there and buy though, you'll find lots of sellers, just like in 2008.
Wow... Lehman and Bear Streans just about took down the U.S. and global financial system just 2 years ago. Why don't you take a closer look at the major banks in Europe and what kind of greek debt they hold...
And they all have 110x that amount in CDS, which nobody is being allowed to collect on, because nobody's allowed to default. Its all a bunch of nonsense, a cherade, put on by Banksterz & Politicians.
Cramer put the Death Cross on Morgan Stanley today.
Cramer said MS is a buy and they are not going down.
Didn't Cramer say the same thing about Bear Stearns and Lehman.
Put your Hard Hats On Folks.
No they didn't That was just a story we were told by some sociopaths like Hank Paulson, Larry Summers, and Alan Greenspan.
Because: "A crisis is the playground of (some) jewish tyrants".