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Somebody At The NAR Finally Decided Not To Laugh At The Joke That Is Their Marketing,,, I Mean Data
I have been a staunch critic of the National Associaton of Realtors (NAR), their various renditions of Chief Economists, and the laughable jokes that they attempt to pass as objective analysis. What is alarming is the fact that the joke that is the NAR gets constant MSM airplay and front page print exposure - credibility be damned. For a glimpse of my real opinions on the matter, see below then reference the nuggest of truth that actually fell out of the MSM yesterday.
Peruse each link below, for they contain more than enough info to identify the NAR for the joke that it is...
- A First In The History Of Mainstream Media? NAR Is Identified As A Joke!
- Why Keep Telling A Joke That's Just Not Funny? Enter The NAR
- When Will the Mainstream Media Be Ready To Call The NAR The Sham That It Really Is?
- In Case You Didn't Get The Memo, The US Is In a Real Estate Depression That Is About To Get Much Worse
Now reference excerpts from this story ran by CNN/Money yesterday - Existing home sales to be revised lower:
If you thought the U.S. housing market couldn't get much worse, think again.
Far fewer homes have been sold over the past five years than previously estimated, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.
NAR said it plans to downwardly revise sales of previously-owned homes going back to 2007 during the release of its next existing home sales report on Dec. 21.
NAR's existing home sales numbers, released monthly, are a closely followed gauge of the health of the housing market.
While NAR hasn't revealed exactly how big the revision to home sales will be, the agency's chief economist Lawrence Yun said the decrease will be "meaningful."
"For the real estate business, this means the housing market's downturn was deeper than what was initially thought," Yun said.
Yun said the database NAR uses to track existing home sales, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS), has led the real estate agency to over-count existing home sales for several reasons.
The MLS database only includes home sales listed by realtors, and excludes homes listed by owners, providing a very narrow view of the market. And because more people are using realtors to list their homes instead of selling them independently, realtor-listed sales numbers have become artificially inflated, said Yun.
In addition, some of the assumptions NAR used in calculating its data have become outdated, since they were based on 2000 Census data.
...The MLS has also been expanding its geographic coverage, so it may have appeared that there were more home sales simply because data from new areas were starting to show up. Also because of this geographic expansion, the system has been double-counting sales of some homes that can be considered part of multiple regions.
"Colorado Springs has their own database, but because the Denver market is nearby they may also list that home in the Denver database, so when the home gets sold, both Denver and Colorado Springs will say sales rose -- so that's genuine double-counting," said Yun.
Yun said NAR realized this upward "shift" in data during its most recent re-benchmarking process this year. With the help of the government, economists and other real estate groups, NAR has now taken these factors into account and will issue revised numbers on Dec. 21 at 10 a.m.
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By lowering past forcasts they improve this year's numbers for free. Basic statistics. They can revise numbers every few years, lopping 10% off everything prior (including this year, some day) any time they want to. The BLS does it with their crap, everyone else is going to do it.
None of this crap means anything. They make it up as they go to fit the message they intend to deliver, being that everything is fine go buy something. You want to know what the lay of the land is, go outside and have a look around. Every other house is for sale now, some have been on the market for a year or longer, and when they do sell it is usually well below the initial ask and the buyer is just a speculator desperate to unload cash pulled out of the (also rigged) markets. I would like to see the stats on how often the buyer of record actually ends up living on the property as opposed to renting it out. Or just sitting on it, vacant, hoping for a pop in local prices.
NAR is full of shit. And realtors are liars. Their industry is falling apart, they are just trying to keep the music going as long as they can. When some day soon entire neighborhoods sit vacant or foreclosed they'll still be driving potential home buyers through them saying it's a quiet community you should buy here.
Lying sacks of shit.
Patrick.net Is a good rent vs. buy site and he has had a few back and forths with the NAR I think
No surprise to followers of this Industry who had no "bias" <<< I'm being kind
Here is one example where this was Called-Out Exactly. He nailed it calling it "roughly double", and supported this conclusion.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42258117/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy/#.TujPk_K3OU8
Flawed housing data might mask depth of woes Critics say Realtors' monthly report overly optimisticBy John W. Schoen Senior producer
msnbc.com updated 3/25/2011 ( I'll just mark a few items, the link takes you to the entire article. There are many others who noted what appeared to be an over-statement, some caled Hype, since 2006, 2007 )>>>If true, that means the inventory of unsold houses is more like 17 months' supply, or roughly double the level reported by the NAR, according to Mark Fleming, chief economist at CoreLogic.
Those underlining the importance of the stats from NAR, the major source, and with 4 years of questionable data, example:
"It's very important for the industry but also for policy makers," said Mike Fratantoni, head of research at the Mortgage Bankers Association, one of the groups that is challenging the Realtors' data.
". So if your primary indicator is giving you an overly optimistic reading, that's cause for concern," he said."
( NAR reply, no big deal) here:
"In terms of broad market characterizations, it's really not that big of a deal," said Molony
>>>Note: they changed the Yardstick used to arrive at the Number, indicates to me Intent. We've seen this one used often
>>>the NAR is working with the Federal Reserve, Fannie Mae, the Federal Housing Finance Agency
I don't think I need to add anymore. The above line alone should be enough
I am consistently amazed at how inept some are in measuring basic information. Housing sales should be straightforward - upon the sale of a house, you have to transfer and record the title. Count title transfers (which are recorded in every city) and you can find out sales. While not perfect, it would seem far superior to the dumb method they use now (which I cannot even figure out) of using MLS data and year 2000 census data???
Finally the Truth. I am a commercial Realtor and CCIM. I have complained to the NAR for years on paper and over the phone. They have embarassed me for years. Let us face it, any national organization with access to national news media is just a propoganda machine for the liars in big government and big business.
Economic data these days has become the functional equivalent of a push poll.
Succinctly said, and spot-on.
+1
NAR= house of cards, and all of them are jokers.
Lamestream Media is merely a propaganda amplifier,owned by 5 large corporations and populated with CIA pysops agents.
The facts are fungible.
So we are in an economic recovery based on fake data, that if it were properly modeled would instead indicate we are in a depression.
I guess my eyes were right all along, the fantasy dream of the economic green shoots turns out to be an outright lie.
Next thing you know they'll reval there ain't no Santa Claus.
NAR was painted in a corner, they had no choice but to say they were liars, so they punted and said their "Model was flawed".
Semantic horseshit, they are liars.
Fucking Realtors...more useless than tits on a nun!
"Fucking Realtors...more useless than tits on a nun!" better double check on that
"I resent that statement !"
http://www.sillyjokes.co.uk/images/dress-up/fancy/ladies/value/hot-nunu.jpg
Satanic Nuns are a tad bit hotter ..........
I should go to church more often.
How long will it take the majority of the people to realise that everything that they hear on the corporate media is nothing more than an infomercial? And that any time the truth is told by these fake news organisations, it is a desperate attempt to hold on to a modicum of credibility because, they know, that the truth is already out on the internet, and through word of mouth, the truth spreads far and wide and exposes them for what they really are, bit by bit, until they will be perceived, by all Americans, as nothing more than state sponsored propaganda.
"How long will it take" is a meaningless question.
They will never get it. Ever for evar.
Happily however the MSM (as we've known them for the past 50 years) have finally killed themselves. When they could have helped solve the problems with real reporting and fostering discussion in a democracy they did not, and the resulting slow but inexorable failure of the economic model that supported them (ads coupled to consumer behaviors) will be their demise.
But this is less a failure of media and more a failure of big business as a whole. Big business couldn't stand the thought of telling people how it really is exactly at the time when the truth was the only thing that could have saved them.
If you live by the Big Lie, then you die by it.
Duck and cover for the next leg down.....5 bdr 3 baths selling for less than a chevy volt.
And then you won't be able to afford to heat it. And then you won't be able to afford the property taxes.
We are in for bigger problems than just clearing a housing glut. Something wicked this way comes.
Just buy a panel van to take care of your housing and transportation needs.
Gee, overstating the health of the economy, say it isn't so.
You're The Man, Reggie!
But NAR was telling the truth during the bubble...lol. blech
"With the help of the government, economists and other real estate groups"
They need help from many sources to correct their farce ? that's funny, they are supposed to do their job correctly....
... all of which are sources of their own propaganda and lies.
The truth was shot in the head, and this action by the NAR is not going to bring the truth back.
Or stated otherwise:
They need help from many sources to cover their arse ? that's funny, they are supposed to do their job correctly....
Thanks Reggie. I appreciate honesty and character above all else. I am grateful for the honesty in data and subsequent conclusions you have exhibited. Keep up the good work!
With respect to this latest 'revelation'...I am just shocked, shocked I tell you! Not really, the deceit worked on me at one time but eventually observation and data won out. I realized that the primary goal was to make me feel isolated, like my difficulties were an isolated case. I did, for a while, but now patterns, commonalities, and suspicious event sequences are marked for investigation later.
My, my, this one was so bad it was one of the first I noted 10 years ago. They are only going back to 2007? It is a good start but honesty takes a lot of work and the NAR has barely just cracked a fingernail.
Thanks Tyler for the play on ZH!
These clowns are full of shit. The real world decline in price is more than double what they state, some areas its triple. Now you have all these scam artists aka real estate agents convincing people to buy now cuz "prices have bottomed" and interest rates are low.
What do you think will happen when interest rates spike, scammers? What about the shadow inventory of 8 million homes that haven't even been foreclosed on? wait til commodity prices like oil and food start to go through the roof, too. Housing is FAR from bottom. And the scammers say people like me are crazy for having common sense
What do you think will happen when interest rates spike, scammers? What about the shadow inventory of 8 million homes that haven't even been foreclosed on?
Which is precisely why QE3 is a metaphysical and mathmatical certainty and will probably come in the form of MBS buybacks by the Berskankster.
I'm not at all sure at what interest rate both on mortgages and national debt have to be to get to a 50% increase in your payments and then a 200% increase with a little bit higher interest rate from there.....but I can tell you at near zero% for the banks and less than 4% for mortgages (if you can get one...good luck) it would not take much increase at all to see a 50% then a 200% increase in your payments to the slaveholder....whether that be your bank for your mortgage or to China, Japan and Britain...et.al...when it comes to our National Debt.
So the 'Skankster will do EVERYTHING possible to keep the Ponzi afloat even if it means clearing every single mortgage and MBS off the banks's books.
He WILL NOT go down in the history books, (which is all these sociopaths care about) as the man who allowed both America and the World to collapse in a flaming heap.
the NWO plan is for the fed to own most if not all the mortgages in Amerika so the govt can act as landlord/property manager and come inside for an "inspection" whenever they please. this is all by design.
Nice job Reg.
I realized the NAR was FOS when during the boom even a potted plant could become a realtor and make $100k/year selling Vegas real estate.
NAR's next press release:
"Now's a great time to buy!"
The NAR in 02/2008: Purchasing a home is "...a good move, for your family, and towards building long-term wealth." It certainly was...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34cW_lw-osk
Interestingly enough, it sounds just like their last one.
"Home prices are getting ready to fall a lot! Now's a great time to buy a home!"
So the banks lie, cause massive losses and destruction of lives, get cauight, and get away with it. Politicians lie, cause massive loss of life, health, property, get caught, and get away with it. Cops are specifically allowed, no encouraged, to lie to the unwashed masses and in court (testilying). Professional associations lie, cause massive losses due to purchases at falsely high prices, get caught, and get away with it.
Looks to me like it's every man for himself.
I know how to do that. Not my first choice, but I know how. The next sunofabitch who says anyhting to me about "shared sacrifice" is gonna get punched in the face, or worse.