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Systemic Risk is Higher Than in 2008
Here are a few zingers for the “recovery” crowd.
§ The US economy added no new jobs last month. That’s the first time this has happened in the post-WW II period.
§ Productivity in the US has declined in back to back quarters (despite QE 2). If we get another decline in 3Q11 it will be the first time this has happened since the depths of the 1979 recession.
§ Today, the US employs less people in manufacturing than it did in 1942. By the way, the US population has doubled since then.
§ The mean duration of unemployment is at an 80-year high.
These are not simply “things are bad” numbers. These are “economic disaster” numbers. The fact they’re coming after the Government and US Federal Reserve have spent TRILLIONS in stimulus should give you an idea of just how dire the situation is in the US economy.
I’ve seen countless arguments for why we’re about to see a new bull market. They are:
1) Cash on the sidelines
2) Companies announcing buybacks
3) Banks are better capitalized
#1 is outright wrong. Mutual fund cash levels are at all time lows. Consumers are broke. So where is all that cash that investors are going to pile in?
#2 doesn’t mean anything either. Corporate insiders are dumping their shares by the truckload. If they really believed their stocks were cheap, why are they sell their personal shares while having their companies buy them back?
Two other aspects to the buybacks arguments: a company only buys back its stock when it doesn’t see any point in reinvesting it in the business. So the fact companies are announcing buybacks is actually a bad thing in that it reveals they are neither hiring nor investing in research or new programs.
#3 The banks are insolvent. End of story. They’re sitting on tens of TRILLIONS in crappy derivatives that are marked to fantasy accounting. Look at Bank of “well capitalized” America. If their balance sheet is so solid why do they need emergency injections from Buffett? Why are they selling off ownership in assets to raise capital?
And on and on.
I will be blunt here. Systemic risk is higher today than it was in 2008. Anyone who claims that the financial system is stable can look at either Treasuries or the credit markets. Look at Europe where the entire banking system is collapsing.
In plain terms, we’re on the even of the Great Crisis: the Crisis to which 2008 was just a warm up. We’re going to see bank holidays, civil unrest, food shortages, market crashes, and more.
If you have yet to prepare yourself for what’s coming, my Surviving a Crisis Four Times Worse Than 2008 report can show you how to turn the unfolding disaster into a time of gains and profits for any investor.
Within its nine pages I explain precisely how the Second Round of the Crisis will unfold, where it will hit hardest, and the best means of profiting from it (the very investments my clients used to make triple digit returns in 2008).
Best of all, this report is 100% FREE. To pick up your copy today simply go to: http://www.gainspainscapital.com and click on the OUR FREE REPORTS tab.
Good Investing!
Graham Summers
PS. We also feature four other reports ALL devoted to helping you protect yourself, your portfolio, and your loved ones from the Second Round of the Great Crisis. Whether it’s my proprietary Crash Indicator which has caught every crash in the last 25 years or the best most profitable strategy for individual investors looking to profit from the upcoming US Debt Default, my reports covers it.
And ALL of this is available for FREE under the OUR FREE REPORTS tab at: http://www.gainspainscapital.com.
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SheepDog, you bored? I'm not saying I have no plan for what I think is coming. I'm just saying I'm not putting a lot of faith in a guy trying to sell me something.
Metal - Check
Water - Check
Food - Check
Guns&Ammo - Check
Other supplies Check
He is not trying to sell you anything. Did you not read in there, TWICE, that its FREE!
Geez, I swear folks do not comprehend what they read anymore!
Add some cash, say a couple months worth, to the list as well as several rolls of junk silver. There will hopefully be time to stock up on essentials before the sliding credit and ATM card thingies lock up. They will take cash however!
All these people convinced a huge bull market is about to bust out at any minute will soon be crying about how unfair it all is and really no one could have seen it coming so someone should pay them back...I hope you all have means of getting water, sotred food, and have firearms and plenty of ammo.
'So where is all the cash coming for investors to pile in'?
Maybe E Trade will start accepting food stamps?
This is all bullshit. Zerohedge shouldn't have someone write these articles, when all they are doing is touting their "DOOMSDAY" books and materials. Makes entire article null and void with no credibility whatsoever.
Hey, Tyler...stop downgrading your site with this crap.
LOL, you unicorn pumpers are about to get corn holed big time.
+1! I second your entire post. It really stinks of sensationalism in the opening & body, and Ron Popeil (sp) infomercial "closing the deal" by the end. "But wait, there's more!!!" Now I have to go back and dismiss everything I just read as bullshit. It's Zerohedge spam... And it is like this every time Phoenix Capital Research posts here. We all bitch about it too, kind of funny.
Just wait until theyre proven right very soon, but dont come around whining and crying.
You're not gittin' it. He may be right...but when you're touting a book and materials, it is SO biased, it makes everything you just read a complete load.
What hes touting is free, ya bonehead! He's not offering to sell anyone anything.
Read the very last sentence. Its mentioned twice that its FREE. Its not even a book, its a nine page reoprt. Comprehension, you got any?
i will be blunt here
blew it on gold badly,, Q3 will see big egg on face
just a couple days ago . still acts like he knows shit
yet he still spouts
cash going down big time gold and silver the place to be
no charge
Graham have you consulted your leprechauns of late?
Four times worse than 2008? Talk about false precision.
Right, 4 times worse than 2008 really its far worse than that.