Think the Crisis Is Over? Think Again!

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Thu, 08/18/2011 - 07:52 | 1571946 savagegoose
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great article


Thu, 08/18/2011 - 01:57 | 1571659 choorles
choorles's picture

“To some this downturn may seem like a destructive event, the economic crisis is actually a constructive event that paves the way for the future … The stability of several major European banks has been seriously threatened and government leaders are in constant teleconferences to discuss how to halt the crisis. The US, on its part, has lost its status as AAA and 7 trillion dollars of stock value has gone up in smoke … Yet, a downgrading of the US creditworthiness and the loss of 7 trillion dollars of stock value really does not mean anything except that the numbers associated with certain papers have been depreciated. It is thus essentially correct when commentators say that so far the crisis has not had any effect on the ¨real economy.¨ The recent fall in the markets simply shocked the mental duality between abstract values and real values. There is however no reason to expect that it will be possible to limit the crisis to the ¨unreal economy¨. Thus, I expect that now also the real economy will be hit. How quickly this will actually manifest is hard to tell but I expect that events will lay the foundation for massive unemployment in many major Western countries (It is of course high already, but for many it has still been possible to keep on with the previous lifestyle). I also expect that there will be a large runaway from the stock markets and the stability of currencies will be negatively affected to a point where new radical solutions need to be considered … I think it is realistic that there will be some kind of political reaction to the developing chaos” - Carl Calleman

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 00:23 | 1571568 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

god bless graham......however, qe3 (4) is coming...

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 05:57 | 1571805 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

And WHY? See 0:52 for the reason!

Seriously, the "Easy Money" users will NOT be denied!

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 05:38 | 1571796 Mountainview
Mountainview's picture

I firmly believe QE2 never ended. Treasury doesn't pay market interest rates on its debt or would you lend money at zero to a debtor with such a balance sheet. The whole thing is rigged.

Even the Chinese take note and are net sellers now. The freemarket for treasury debt is dead and will remain so.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 08:12 | 1571631 Shocker
Shocker's picture

In Sept. they are going to announce some new plans. Probably Q3, and nothing really much.

We keep pumping money but nothing is happening. We need some real fixes



Wed, 08/17/2011 - 22:28 | 1571301 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

Fuck this pathetic sales pitch, telling folk they are going to lose "EVERYTHING" then asking them to subscribe for a solution, fearmongering peice of shit...why dont you actually say something before you ask people to subscribe to your nonsense? which, by the way, i have done, and its a lot of bollocks. I unsubscribed immediately, you're just another punk trying to tease money from people. Fuck you and the donkey you rode in on.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 02:26 | 1571675 Whats that smell
Whats that smell's picture

ZH has bills to pay too, lighten up Bro!  while you're at it click on Cramer

I walked through "crop Dusting"



Thu, 08/18/2011 - 02:08 | 1571669 agNau
agNau's picture

Donkey?, I traded my donkey in on a Volt! Serial # 0000000004 btw.
I personally picked it from the "GM Field of Dreams"! A field of Volts stretching as far as the eye can see.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 22:59 | 1571379 Idiot Savant
Idiot Savant's picture

Epic rant, thanks for saving me the time. I don't know why ZH posts PCR's crap.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 00:01 | 1571524 Joseph Jones
Joseph Jones's picture

The same reason they publish ads with the image of Glenn Beck, for whom it is too kind to tar and feather.

Glenn Beck makes me think I picked a bad time to become a pacifist. 

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 21:41 | 1571155 DarkStarDog
DarkStarDog's picture

Don't worry about it.  This is merika we do big things for those who do bad things.   Rewarding failure is our specialty 

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 23:50 | 1571484 Sambo
Sambo's picture

Many years ago I worked for a large computer manufacturer whose CEO was an ex Treasury Secretary.

He messed up the company totally and was rewarded 20 millions dollars which in those days was a lot of money.

So this has been going on for a long time. Sheeple as usually are only concerned about who the next american idol is.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 21:04 | 1571064 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Decisions decisions...let me see, either choose between Grahams 27 day how to lose all your money, or read a quick guide on how to take a nice juicy dump that won't leave any stains on my arse? ..I think I will go with the dump manual!

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 20:06 | 1570960 sellstop
sellstop's picture

I had been doing some bottom picking lately. In looking at the action in the long bond, I took that as the signal to stand aside.

It sounds like a train coming. I'm getting off the tracks.

Got a little short today....


Wed, 08/17/2011 - 19:29 | 1570906 Robslob
Robslob's picture

So I guess Bernank has put himself in the pickle jar:

How does "I can raise rates in 15 minutes" coincide with "we are keeping rates at zero for 2 years" exactly?

Anybody in Congress with a brain (I know that is asking alot) should simply ask that question.

Quiver haven't seen anything yet.

And since I am "Rant On" mode right now how about Obama telling Perry to be careful about "threatening" the President of the Federal Reserve...Holy Shit we are fucked!

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 22:11 | 1571252 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL nice point! 'Bernankes policy is both 'Extended ZIRP far as the eye can see extended period' coupled with 'I can raise rates in 15 minutes'

No you cant have it both ways.

Or maybe Ben is a Zen Kung Fu naster and using 'The policy of no policy' technique. 

What a clownshow.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 03:51 | 1571753 myne
myne's picture

He's correct.

In two years, it will take him approximately 15 minutes to raise interest rates from the moment he makes the decision to do so.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 19:01 | 1570857 tamboo
Thu, 08/18/2011 - 05:49 | 1571801 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Yeah, but at the exchange rate of 50,000 Quatloos/coin, who's gonna have enough Quatloos?

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 18:52 | 1570819 anony
anony's picture


Your keyboard to god's ears, Phoenix. But....

What's the big mystery of what to do since the stock markets are going to crash?

Buy triple short ETFs with both fists, borrow all you can to get as much leverage as you can, and sit back with a mint julep in one hand somewhere in the Caribbean, and enjoy the carnage.

This is the time for all pessimists (being optimistic about a crash and cashing in on it, is hardly pessimistic) to shine on.

All nattering nabobs should relish the eventuality of what we have been predicting for 3 years.

But this report is free, immediate, and requires you to sign up for nothing.

We will however, for a small donation, send you a T-shirt that reads:

" Short people are dudes !"  

signed by Jeff Bridges, hissownself, his photo on the back. Guaranteed to  get you more babes.....

But wait......god wouldn't allow that to occur because it would make me way too happy.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 18:15 | 1570726 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

The assumption seems to be that Jackson Hole 2011 will do what Jackson Hole 2010 did.  My gut says no. 

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 22:01 | 1571220 GoldmanSux
GoldmanSux's picture

He won't dare announce anything big at Jackson Hole this year.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 18:07 | 1570707 Random_Robert
Random_Robert's picture

Everyone is saying that QE3 isn't going to happen; and yet the last FOMC minutes stated that the Fed will keep interest rates at near-zero levels until mid-2013..

How, pray tell, can the Fed keep rates that low without continuing to buy bonds with newly invented currency units...?


Wed, 08/17/2011 - 18:40 | 1570792 oblonsky
oblonsky's picture

ZIRP is a form of easing whereby the Fed buys short term bonds to keep the rate within their target range of 0-.25%, but QE that the Fed has and would implement would entail moving farther out in the yield curve to supress rates. it's not clear to me how many short term bonds--if any--the Fed needs to buy to keep that rate between 0-.25%. i would be interested in seeing data on this actually because it doesn't appear to me that the Fed's balance sheet is expanding now that QE2 is done. 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 02:39 | 1571704 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

The Fed's balance sheet might not be expanding but what about other entities that are more or less off the radar that have been used in the past, like the FHLB?  Or using the ESF as a direct conduit?  I would keep and eye too on the inflows of Caribbean funds in the next couple of TIC reports.  Laundered backdoor QE3. 

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 18:38 | 1570789 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Reply to RR, The Fed will keep the lending rates to banks low.

The bond yields are different, they could go up and yet the

lending rate would remain the same. But regardless, if the bond

yields went up too high the Fed would have to intervene to prevent

the debt from becoming unmanageable. 

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 17:54 | 1570672 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture
Foreclosures Likely to Surge Soon Wednesday, August 17, 2011 2:44 PM

"On Monday, Superior Court Judge Mary C. Jacobson ruled that four of those lenders -- Bank of America, Citibank, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo -- can resume filing foreclosures, after showing that they had put procedures in place to follow the legal rules in foreclosures. Two of the lenders, GMAC and OneWest, are still being reviewed by the courts."


Pray for the best.....prepare for the worst.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 17:38 | 1570625 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Four times worse? Not 4.35? Or 3.78?

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 17:25 | 1570591 max2205
max2205's picture

Everything' ?! Lol

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 17:22 | 1570578 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

I disagree with the idea the the Fed is helpless to do anything to prevent a super crisis.

There may be many headwinds against another Fed rescue, but when TSHTF they will

quickly disappear. Since the Fed is basically unlimited in the amount of money it can

create out of thin air, it will do everything to avoid a super meltdown of the economy

and the ensuing chaos that would follow. If it comes to a choice between massive Fed

intervention and riots and cities being set on fire, people losing their life savings giving

way to utter chaos, I think the Fed would intervene with little resistance.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 18:50 | 1570821 mind_imminst
mind_imminst's picture

They can avoid short term small riots, but then they put into motion the large scale hyperinflationary future riots.  I would rather take the pain now. The only hope for the FED is for someone to invent a free (or nearly free) energy source very soon, or for some quantum leap in robotic efficiency. More and more the world is looking like it does in the Sci-Fi novella Manna by Marshall Brain.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 02:32 | 1571697 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

They can, and have printed and printed, and handed it out to the investor class in glass towers on Wall Street, that is why import prices are up 14% Y/Y and export prices are up 10%Y/Y, and why I can't afford coffee and cigarettes anymore.  This top down bailout nation is an unmitigated disaster both for main street and Wall Street which has not made any real returns in light of the piles of M3 being poured into the TBTF's.

They will print, and I expect they do the same thing they have been doing, and we will find a trip to the store to be painful at best and futile within 6 mos to a year, till we are all on food stamps and subject to government control for our very calories.  One thing I do not expect is the reelection of any incumbent should they even deign to hold elections next year.  And when too many are homeless they will be offered a free roof in one of the lovely homeland security camps.  The new gulags of the class war. 

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 17:19 | 1570569 vocational tainee
vocational tainee's picture

Yeah,yeah.Oncle Graham knows it all..

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 16:57 | 1570475 Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

that's what happens when fraud and corruption on a massive scale is left to 'self correct'

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 16:53 | 1570448 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

Have to agree. QE I & II were methadone for the junkie. Nothing has been done to adress all the bad assets, over leverage both private and public and the derivatives issues.

Wake up screaming again.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 17:52 | 1570666 sgt_doom
sgt_doom's picture

Thanks for highly intelligent comments today.

How many, many times have I attempted to explain this most important reality to too many who believe everything they hear on Foxtard, NPR, CNN, CBS, ABC.

It's really oh soooo simple --- debt deflation for the next 20 years --- OMG to the max!

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 17:03 | 1570496 andybev01
andybev01's picture

Derivatives? Pshaw, what's a quadrillion among friendly nations?

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 16:46 | 1570423 brokesville
brokesville's picture


Thu, 08/18/2011 - 07:04 | 1571839 Popo
Popo's picture

Was there **ANYTHING** substantive in this post?  Graham Summers is a lightweight.

Tyler this guy is a waste of bandwidth.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 18:06 | 1570706 thewhitelion
thewhitelion's picture

Spiritually as well as monetarily.  It's a MIRACLE!

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 22:18 | 1571276 mkkby
mkkby's picture

If you think the fed is really gonna stop printing, then you truly are delusional.  They'll just keep it a secret.  How can they stop?  Is the budget balanced, or is the deficit just as bad as ever?  Plus all of Europe needs a bailout (and will get it, mark my words).

Yeah, yeah -- a few fed mouth pieces have sounded off.  Sure.  Let's all believe TPTB press releases.  Good one.

I guess phoenix capital can get really shrill and hope it helps their shorts.

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