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Tick By Tick Research Email - Sometimes It Is Who You Know About and Not What You Know About

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Dear All

 

After spending over two millennia and billions - if not trillions - of dollars studying the atmosphere around us, I find it amazing that we are still terrible at predicting future weather patterns.  Weather, like finance, is a dynamic system.  What one person opines or sees in data, another will see the converse opposite.  Think about August of last year, Gold bugs and debt skeptics felt that they were seeing the beginning of an impending debt spiral whereas value investors, all over the planet, scooped up stock due to their belief in the intrinsic value of securities supported by both historic valuations and multiples.  Just like weather, one strategy will not triumph over another unequivocally.  Over long periods, those with a value orientation have tended to fair well, whereas those who have correctly picked market downturns have made vast sums over short periods.  Lorenz, the godfather of Chaos Theory, would have likely found that these convexities create the preconditions for Chaos.  Chaos, and its related fields, examine how the effect of small occurrences dramatically affect the outcome of seemingly unrelated events in the future.  

 

 

"Banks have turned into gigantic gambling institutions.  You never know what you own.  I wouldn't touch them if you pointed a gun to my head"



 

Bill Fleckenstein - Fleckenstein Capital



I believe that globally we are seeing a number of these small occurrences unfold.  Occurrences that will no doubt have a profound effect on our future and we will all look back on and this "how did we not see this".  Everything is easier with the benefit of hindsight.  We all have a friend who "predicted" the housing crash but how many do you know who made themselves substantially wealthier because of it?  It is the who part of todays economic equation that this letter aims to look at.

 

In the present economic environment, whilst most of us are thinking about if Greece will obtain a bailout in March, I believe that we should be thinking about who has been purchasing the European debt since the profligacy of the EU member states has been highlighted.  Whilst the ECB's LTRO program has undoubtedly prompted a number of European banks to purchase European debt, we would be foolish to believe that these are the only institutions in the market.  For instance, back in November, the worlds largest money manager Blackrock was scooping up BTP's (Italian Bonds) for their attractive yield.  A move that many of us may find unbelievable given the global macro climate but, given the more recent collapse in yields, it seems like a very clever trade.  Over the longer term, I couldn't disagree more with a fiduciary financial institution taking such a verantly stupid move but, as discussed earlier, I have a different investment agenda.  However, Blackrock aren't the only player in the market and this is where it gets interesting.           

 

 

 

"I ask anyone to give me an example of an economy beefed up by huge amounts of quantitative easing that did not inflate tremendously when or if the economy improved"

 

Julian Robertson - Tiger Capital Management

 

 

See whilst you and I were still recovering from the credit crisis that gripped the global economy, a few select and particularly astute individuals were buying Credit Default Swaps on a wide variety of global sovereigns.  However, as these individuals have slowly watched their investment thesis unfold more beautifully than Beethoven's fifth, the Eurocrats decided it was time to change the rules over and over again.  Short Selling Bans, CDS bans, Free money LTRO programs, PSI deals....the list goes on.  Being the determined individuals that many of these investors are, they were not about to sit down and let their John Paulson moment be ruined.  Instead, many of these investors have decided to purchase the very debt that they have backed for default to gain a place at the table.  Think about it this way, with 12 Month Greek bonds yielding a phenomenal 629% (Graph #0000ff;">HERE), gaining a seat at the PSI table has become very very cheap indeed.  Just today, I was told by Skandi hedge fund trader that CDS trades similar to this are becoming increasingly popular in the region in order to force a default.

 

 

"Equity markets may rally on this news because they are focused on getting a deal done, but anyone in fixed-income should now consider retching under their desks as we all just took one of the biggest screwings of our lives that may well not be a singular event."




Mark Grant - Southwest Securities

 

 

Whilst, I am unable to speculate about the effectiveness of such actions by CDS holders, I do believe that it highlights, what I feel, is a gaping whole in the European defence.  Bring more people to the table and you stand a far lower chance of avoiding a default.  Moreover, if we think about Greece and who the predominant holders of the debt are, the true concentration is with domestic banks and pension firms.  However, if one is to look at the likes of Italy, Spain or France, the debt holder base is far wider and is unlikely to incorporate the same streamlined interests.  Can you imagine, Mario Monti and Nicolas Sarkozy trying to explain to Blackrock's Larry Fink or China's Zhou Xiaochuan that they must face a not so voluntary haircut on their debt holdings...I think not and this is the problem.  Another way to think about this common conflict is to examine the EU as an organisation itself, how should I put it..."too many ruin the broth"...or in other words, there are so many competing interests that very little of real substance is every achieved.  To think that the same would not apply to an industry where people live and die by their figures would be, by all accounts, moronic.   

 

It is these small details that build the really big picture and help those patient enough to formulate highly successful investment strategies beyond the thematic opinions that flood the financial marketplace.  As Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital has said, "we like to evaluate the plumbing" before investing a penny; and since inception, Hayman has performed exceptionally for its investors and Bass has made an exceptional name for himself.  There are thousands upon thousands of these small events everyday that can both add value or flip your own thesis on its head, however every now and again it is these small details that dictate or restrict how the future can be played out as in the case of Europe.  To offer a couple more examples of the who that have strung to my leading of asking why, I have provided a couple more topics I could have openly talked about today below.  

 

 

1) The Chinese Sovereign Wealth Fund (CIC) recently purchased 9% of Thames Water, the company that provides clean drinking water to all London residents

 

2) Gasoline follows a very similar trend to Gold and has outperformed the precious metal significantly over the last 4 years.  China and India have made some of the biggest investments in US energy resource companies that produce the fuel.

 

 

Sometimes it just pays to ask who before even confronting the why.

 

Before I introduce the articles for the week ahead, it is worth noting the latest note out of Europe that is likely to put yet another hurdle to the PSI deal for Greece.  As of this weekend, the bailout being proposed will subordinate the holdings of private bondholders against the holdings of the ECB.  A move that Bill Gross of Pimco has already commented upon, adding that it "subordinates all holders of Euroland sovereign debt".  One things for sure, you can guarantee that the Eurocrat response will be filled with yet more humorous incompetency. 

 

Onto the articles.  This week we start with a case study by Howard Marks, the successful CIO of Penn's Endowment Fund.  The study looks at Marks' opinion on a number of different investment styles and his approach to liquidity and risk that allowed the fund to function effectively during 2008-2009.  Secondly, we look at a Bloomberg article that talks about the fraudulent $6 Trillion (Yes, I said trillion) in US treasuries that were just seized from a safety deposit box in Zurich.  Thirdly, Grant Williams takes another look at Greece and why he feels a default is inevitable despite the messages coming out of Europe.  And last but no means least, we share the letter sent out by Fitch last week that upgraded Icelandic debt to BBB- (Investment Grade) after the country defaulted in 2008 proving that Greece really does have another option.  Enjoy!

 

1) Assessing Performance Records - Howard Marks (Click #0000ff;">Here)

 

2) Record $6 Trillion of Fake US Bonds Seized - Bloomberg (Click #0000ff;">Here)

 

3) Things That Make You Go Hmmm... - Grant Williams (Click #0000ff;">Here)

 

4) Icelandic rating upgraded to BBB- (Via Reuters) - Fitch (Click #0000ff;">Here)

 

 


Best Regards

George Adcock 

 

 

Founder

www.tickbytick.co.uk

 

@TickByTick_Team

 

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Wed, 02/22/2012 - 04:15 | Link to Comment sikefeier0728
sikefeier0728's picture

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Tue, 02/21/2012 - 00:56 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I'm shocked that you would consider retching under the desk; after alll that's why God made waste baskets. But other than that; I feel appropriately nauseous after reading your note.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 16:20 | Link to Comment Augustus
Augustus's picture

Is there some trade for an individual to buy the 600% yield Greek debt?  I just don't believe all of these FU deals stuck to the bond holders will work out as planned.  If it was only the originally discussed 50% deal, maybe.  Getting swapped out for ESFS paper backed by more Greek bonds priced at par is quite a bit different.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 13:51 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

WTF?  The very same "lessons" were learned by those holding any GM bonds. Same as it ever was.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 15:35 | Link to Comment mkhs
mkhs's picture

I am confused.  Are you cheering them on with Win The Future(WTF)?

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 09:50 | Link to Comment ella
ella's picture

Rigged by policy makers, billionaires, hedge funds, wall street bankers, defense contractors, and HFT.  Not much left for the rest of us. 

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 11:17 | Link to Comment ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

The rest of us don't matter. We need to get off this delusional egalatrian nonesense, a phenomonon seen no where else in nature, and accept the eating the weak like it used to be,  before policy tried to intervene.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 00:59 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Coming soon to a theatre near you; " A great wailing and gnashing of the teeth, and the people rending their garments."  Don't miss it, you'll love it.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 13:31 | Link to Comment The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

So much for the meek inheriting the Earth ... Guess they get it after the criminal elite have stripped it bare and ascended to another plane.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 23:44 | Link to Comment El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

I understand that that "other plane" can be awfully hot for a long, long time...

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 09:08 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Some name dropping: Bass, PIMCO, Lorenz, Robertson, ... then superficial analysis... a quantum leap to China buying a company in London no less, only to arrive at ... ... Iceland?

Lord, 300k living on a rock in the middle of the North Atlantic isn't really a comfort for Greeks or apropos of the Greek situation. At all really.

My kind advice to you Ticks, please find analogies other than Chaos Theory to describe perceived randomness.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 09:59 | Link to Comment Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

Lord, 300k living on a rock in the middle of the North Atlantic isn't really a comfort for Greeks or apropos of the Greek situation. At all really.

I disagree. It should be some comfort for those who would lead them out from under the banker boot heel. BBB only 4 years after the flip of the finger is something to note and celebrate imo, except for the fact that they should be debt averse anyway. Whereas Iceland is energy and resource rich, the world really didn't care to bring stronger currencies and spend vigorously. Greece, who is not blessed with such advantages, has two commodities in abundance - climate and physical beauty - which if properly leveraged will be the lifeline that keeps Greece together during the most painful devaluation. Fergusson talks about the $5 bill buying a weekend in Berlin for several people, with leftover pocket change to go with the Monday morning hangover. Of course Greece, by beating the rush, can suffer far less of a devaluation, open up the country for business, and have even the middle class afford to come visit for their "last great vacation". Booked to the hilt, a bidding war would begin and Greece would soon start the engine of recovery with nary a broken window in sight.

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 08:51 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

I am in wonderment at reading this phrase : we all took one of the biggest screwings of our lives and its not over....

Honey to my ears; may those who sup with the devil get their full come uppance. There are no honest speculators today...when you read this :

...gaining a seat at the PSI table has become very very cheap indeed.  Just today, I was told by Skandi hedge fund trader that CDS trades similar to this are becoming increasingly popular in the region in order to force a default...

 

Now all those who play this game of scavengers deserve to get their nuts in the cracker; Eurocrats or no Eurocrats, and to boot I would say an AD-COCK up their red and rosies, as a golden plated bonusssss.

 

Wonderful financial world we live in, casinos, scavengers n all...

 

Mon, 02/20/2012 - 06:17 | Link to Comment Tao 4 the Show
Tao 4 the Show's picture

All you need are instabilities - aka unstable fixed points in a system, and future events frequently become unpredictable. If you try to balance a ball on the top of a hill, the slightest perturbation can make it proceed towards vastly different futures (one side of the hill or the other). Chaotic systems have a countable infinity of these instabilities. Human systems - well, honestly, we have only the vaguest ideas - but they are at least as complicated as chaotic systems.

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