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Time to Go Short the Matterhorn
The Swiss franc has been driven up to absurd levels by a safe haven bid. It is about to suffer a fate similar to its safe haven cousin in the metals market, gold, which plunged an incredible 11% in two days. This is the next “short gold” trade. If the barbarous relic can fall that far, that fast, so can the Swiss franc.
The Swiss National Bank has undertaken massive efforts to weaken its hopelessly overvalued currency before it completely wrecks the country’s economy. I love Swiss chocolate, especially Toblerone, but it’s not that good. $20 for a cup of coffee? Puleese!
The Swiss National Bank is flooding the domestic money markets with liquidity at an unprecedented rate and intervening in the foreign exchange markets. Harsher measures are rumored to come shortly. This is all fresh red meat for hedge fund traders.
My experience is that, while these measures initially fail and are poo pooed by the market, at the end of the day, they succeed. After all central banks can print all the money they want. It is far easier to weaken a currency than to strengthen them. We are about to see that with the Swiss currency. You can buy puts on the (FXF) to participate.
To see the data, charts, and graphs that support this research piece, as well as more iconoclastic and out-of-consensus analysis, please visit me at www.madhedgefundtrader.com . There, you will find the conventional wisdom mercilessly flailed and tortured daily, and my last two years of research reports available for free. You can also listen to me on Hedge Fund Radio by clicking on “This Week on Hedge Fund Radio” in the upper right corner of my home page.
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madhedgefundtrader? a more appropriate handle would be 'DegenerateGambler'. This fails. I bet he is still short gold and nearly lost all his gains. Loser.
How IS that "short gold trade" workin' out for ya? Loser.
Making predictions is impossible, an 'absurdly high' price can go much higher and predicted super high prices might be impossible to obtain.
Remember 'Dow 36,000'? How about '$300 crude'? How about the price of housing in Vancouver, Canada, can't it go much higher?
There are far more people in EU looking for a place to hide value than there is available cash in the Swiss national account. Saving the Swiss economy will require capital controls as the liquidity issuance mechanism the central bank relies upon part can't keep up with demand.
Ditto gold: The size of the paper gold market indicates potential demand is massive. A rotation out of paper gold into physical takes place when sufficient physical is made available.
Gold has the characteristics of a natural resource in short supply (which it is) the diff being high prices for gold/silver have no economic effect ...
Unlike crude prices over $30 per barrel! Current high prices which up to now have systematically undermined the world's cheap oil- dependent waste-based economies.
The top of PM market is near when a large establishment such as a bullion bank or even LBMA is unable to meet margin calls. The failure of Semgroup during the crude bull in 2008 indicated the top was near.
Don't currency interventions usually fail? You might have a few hours to make a trade if you get some inside information on when one is happening.
Not that I usually join in taking potshots at the inane commentary consistently posted by certain contributors, but I just have to this time.
If you had listened to the maddeninghedgefundtrader over the last couple of years, you would have known to short US treasuries, short the Yen, short Japanese bonds, and short gold. And by now you'd have known what it was like to be wiped out.
I have no idea what the long-term direction is for gold, but this post actually only lends support to the argument for gold, at least in the near term. Yes, you can weaken a currency through central bank printing. But you can't print more gold (okay, you can print more paper gold, but there seems to be a growing appreciation of the difference between paper and physical gold).
Also, if you accept the argument (as I do) that the primary impetus driving gold higher of course isn't inflation fears, but European money fleeing the Euro and Euroland banks, then, with the Swissy removed from the safe haven category, that pretty much leaves gold as the remaining option for Euroland wealth to flow into. So, given any further market or financial pertubations in Euroland, I'd expect there's a reasonable chance gold will continue its march higher.
FXF targeting 141 from 119
I would not short it here
FXF filled that gap in late July, let er rip!
Did you actually eat chocolate with a Swiss banker?
MHFT Is one of my favorite reads, This looks like another No Brainer by Reggie,
If a cup of coffee costs $20.00 The the Swiss Franc has a long way to fall and it must, The biggest question is Timing and in this regard MHFT is usually above average.
FX is not my thing and the Yen which just keeps going up when it should be imploding must be considered.
Reggie is a trader he isnt interested in what he trades just the bottom line, He bets on probabilities depending on his estimates as a trade corrects both short and long,
I havnt a clue how this will pan out but the probaby Reggie in my view is on the button.
Excuse me while I puke. Both are only here to line their own pockets. If they actually made the money they claimed to have made, the subscriptions should be free. What moron would pay to be frontrun by these two assfaces?
What purpose does Switzerland serve anymore as it is boxed further and further into a corner by US and other taxing authorities.
Now that would be a spectacilar blow-up!
You couldn't trade your way out of a paper bag. Nice call it dropped 13% in the last 2 weeks and now you are recommending it? Where were you when the inside bar at the top of a rally gave a short signal 13% higher? Good job missing the trade.
For the readers, FXF options are not at all liquid, only use FXF options if you expect a good size move.
Time to short the madhedgefundtrader......................in fact, it's always time to short him...................
Fiat poo-poo alright. With my PM's I can buy whatever currency offers the best return if needed.
Right now, fiatsco doesn't look very good
MHFT why are you looking for a 'short gold' trade....have we suddenly printed and monetized LESS?
He;s not looking for anything; he referred you to the recent short trading opportunity in Gold; NOW PAST; in order to get your interest in his present program; whidh is hopelessly out of date. His present, is also in the past, basically.
The difference between poo-poo and pooh pooh is actually a shitty distinction.
USD/JPY was 90 when MHFT said it's time to short the Yen. April 1, 2010 "the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan, who will move Mount Fuji if they must to get the yen down and bail out the country’s beleaguered exporters."WOW such great advice with out a solicitation to buy something...no wait
I don't where you've been, but maybe you should take a look at the eurchf graph of the last 15 days.....
it's "pooh-poohed." please type out all of the requisite characters.
LOL
You must really know your shit.
Not a short seller as u know-and staying in GE for God knows why- but this has merit to me. Switzerland is even worse than Ireland with two banks far larger than what can only be called a non government now. The markets are completely irrational as "perceived safe havens" make it appear money is running into the hands of its killer. It makes no sense for the entire european continent to devolve their economy to "Switzerland." once this trade (and it is a trade AT BEST) is unwound then what? I say treasury yields keep plunging as the EU goes kaput.
MHFT is an idiot. Gold just went up $40 USD because some Fed from Chicago uttered the unspoken desires of the Bernank.
That is it, exact. Of course CNBC interviews the most DOVISH fed gov'r at the trading day open, and then parades it around all day,.
Naw, they are not selling stocks...
This is the same channel that said gold was "toppy" multiple days in the low 1700's.
But we can still rest assuured, "Accommidation" (the new phrase for QE) will be forthcoming... soon.
Doesn't invalidate the fact that the short contract returned $10,000 in one day. The problem, as always, is that he;s referring to something that happened in the past; when he had no clue as to what to do about it.
Bottom line its all just an untradeable sack of crap. Better to just buy PM's when they get mashed down and stay clear.
A bit late to the party are we?
I posted right here on this blog the day and the time to short the CHF/USD and not with any puts either; which are not appropriate for individual traders. The results were enromous profits in a matter of days. He's very late. I'll take this opportunity to state that the S&P500 has put in a triple bottom at or about 1120 on Aug.8, 10, and 22nd. So all you who try to do market timing from reading blogs; it;s time to whine again about how unfair the world is, but first get rid of those puts; Some kind kind stranger will give you something for them, not much, but something. You short tops; not bottoms; I posted here to short the DJIA at 12,700 at the day when you could have done that. A futures contract is very straightforward and easy to manage and I believe that's the best vehicle for an individual. Then you just need to have a stop loss and don't plunge, and study the idea of selling tops and buying bottoms, and voila. Feeder Cattle are now working their way down towards the yearly low in Oct. or Nov. when they form a bottom under 130 you can buy a few contracts; they're small; and wait patiently. this is a very boring process you take profit in July or August. But it's very reliable.
The next "Gold Short"?
Yeah, that was a great trade!
Gold is only 5% off its all time high.