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Trading Analysis, Recommendations and Market Commentary From Eurocalypse - 9/27/2011

Submitted by Reggie Middleton on 09/27/2011 10:33 -0400

The following is a contribution from BoomBustBlog resident trader Eurocalypse.

key word: Patience

Hello BoomBustBloggers (and ZHers!~Reggie add-in) Eurocalypse
here to share a few thoughts about the market. I'd like to open this
post with a much loved topic among the blogosphere and its readers, aka
gold.

I'm sure I received quite a lot of scorn and criticism when I
said that Gold was NOT a no-brainer buy for the LT (see past
Eurocalypse commentary), and to avoid buying it when it was in the high
1700. Of course, it did squeeze more to 1900$, but I think the price
action demonstrated that I was basically right, that there was a lot of
speculative longs, and that Gold (denominated in USD) IS correlated to
the USD index, more than the stock market.

Well I also said the
objective for a retracement was the monthly moving average low 1600s,
high 1500s so here is how the charts looks now (click an graphic to enlarge).

20110927_-_Gold_Monthly

Oh!
I like very much that candle touching the MA and bouncing there just
after. We can zoom on the weekly and daily charts to see better what
happened...

20110927_-_Gold_Weekly

We
touched the Bollinger low on the weekly. I'd say that was a double
reason to buy at that level, together with the monthly MA level. That
was a fantastic buy opportunity for the patient and opportunistic
trader.

20110927_-_Gold_Daily

Subscribers (click here to subscribe)
can download the entire 6 page commentary (which is quite interesting)
as well as recommendations on winding down the profitable SPY pair/fly
trades here File Icon Trading Tips Sep 27th 2011.

- advertisements -

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 19:33 | 1716734 Lord Koos

This whole Eurocalypse will be "solved" by handing the entire thing off to the IMF, who will print some kind of money. The IMF doesn't have to worry about pesky constitutions, citizens or votes.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 16:59 | 1716274 shazbotz

GERMANY SLAMS 'STUPID' US PLAN FOR EURO...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8793010/Germany-slams...

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 15:34 | 1715935 cocoablini

Reggies intermediate trades are pretty spot on. Shortterm, the only people calling perfection are the frontrunning traders at goldman. I say frontrunning as a standin for insider trading.
The system is struggling to right itself and its hopeless. But shortterm, the ponzi mechanics will provide huge volatility and you can get wiped out playing shirt and long levered up.
So, gold had a 5 way gangraping with twist, margin tightening in US, in China, overbought technicals, oversold SP and eurodisaster.
The collapse will go a lot slower than you think because there is money to be made in the game while it implodes. Its a ponzi, so if you get out too early you miss the huge run ups. If you get out to late there are millions of sellers in front of you

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 14:20 | 1715636 ivars

New oil (Brent Crude 1M) price prediction 2011-2013:

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&sta...

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 16:46 | 1716219 anonnn

link,above, goes to yr post at saposjoint which ccontains a link that is not active ?? on my screen??? so cannot view yr graphic.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 13:27 | 1715387 Zero Govt

Reggie, i'm just going for an Italian-Indian ...yes seriously! ...it's a chicken tikker pizza ..you haven't lived til you've tasted one, abs' lipsmackingly yummy ...will be back in 40mins to read your latest work of genius and make some uber-intelligent, funny or innane comment (like this one!). Regards xx

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 15:18 | 1715851 Zero Govt

:) Mmmm the chicken tikka pizza was fantabulous.. inspired food :))

:/ Mmmm on the article by Reggies trader, Euroocalypse, on Gold which is a mixed bag of nuts!

Not buying Gold in the "high $1,700's" missed out on a double-top at $1,900 Oz and a lip-smacking 10% profit. Leveraged with a 2x ETF and that's an easy 20% without pinging too much risk playing picking tops. Remember most Hedge Funds would be proud (and shout about it) of that return to you in over a whole year, let alone in a month or two.

So no Eurpocalypse, you weren't "basically right". You were bascially too conservative and missed the boat and a very handsome return which is the point of investing and accurate forcasting.

I do rate your analysis and comment on the Gold bottom though... if it is the bottom.. Thanks at least for that

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:35 | 1715016 RazorForex

Yes It does seems like this guys is doing it after the fact. Should have stated his case earlier.

I post mine in realtime.

http://razorsforex.blogspot.com/2011/09/relief-rally-for-euro-currency.html

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:25 | 1714988 dizzyfingers

Thank you Customers M: nice shot over the net.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 12:34 | 1715217 CustomersMan

Thanks

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 11:07 | 1714933 CustomersMan

This May Kill The New Euro Leverage Scam

Germany's Top Judge Throws Major Monkey Wrench Into Leveraged EFSF Machinery, Demands New Constitution and Popular Referendum for Further Powers

The major story of the day is the leveraged EFSF is dead without a popular referendum and a new German constitution says Germany's top judge.

Please consider German turmoil over EU bail-outs as top judge calls for referendum

Germany's top judge has issued a blunt warning that no further fiscal powers may be surrendered to Europe without a new constitution and a popular referendum, vastly complicating plans to boost the EU's rescue machinery to €2 trillion (£1.7 trillion).

Andreas Vosskuhle, head of the constitutional court, said politicians do not have the legal authority to sign away the birthright of the German people without their explicit consent.

"The sovereignty of the German state is inviolate and anchored in perpetuity by basic law. It may not be abandoned by the legislature (even with its powers to amend the constitution)," he said.

"There is little leeway left for giving up core powers to the EU. If one wants to go beyond this limit – which might be politically legitimate and desirable – then Germany must give itself a new constitution. A referendum would be necessary. This cannot be done without the people," he told newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine.

The extraordinary interview comes just days before the Bundestag votes on a bill to revamp the EU's €440bn bail-out fund (EFSF), enabling it to purchase EMU bonds pre-emptively and recapitalise banks.

Carsten Schneider, finance spokesman for the Social Democrats, demanded that Chancellor Angela Merkel and finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble clarify their "true intentions " before the vote on Thursday.

"A new multi-trillion programme is being cooked up in Washington and Brussels, while the wool is being pulled over the eyes of Bundestag and German public. This is unacceptable," he said.

Prince Hermann Otto zu Solms-Hohensolms-Lich, the Bundestag's deputy president and finance chief for the Free Democrats (FDP) in the ruling coalition, expressed outrage over the secret plans.

"Unless the German finance minister can give an immediate assurance that there will be no leveraged formula, I will not vote for this law. We might as well dispense with months of negotiations if all this means is that the Bundestag will be circumvented and served cold left-overs," he said.

The accusation that German leaders are conspiring with EU officials to emasculate the Bundestag is highly sensitive, going to the core of the raging debate in recent months over EU encroachments on German democracy.

The German court has already killed eurobonds. Now, if the top judge's call stands, leveraged EFSF just bit the dust as well.

Clearly the German court has had enough of Chancellor Angela Merkel, her cronies, and all the politicians who want to rob German taxpayers for their own agenda.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 15:44 | 1715991 edotabin

Small note to German Judge:

We did not reach the bottom of the barrel with one vote. Throughout history there have been multiple votes in multiple countries. Recently, they found a way to get people to vote "correctly" in Ireland and they will do so again. If one could ask President Andrew Jackson and his battles with "The Second Bank of the United States", I am sure that would be telling as well.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Jackson#Opposition_to_the_National_Bank

Throughout history the "votes" have been conducted in a way so as to reach the sewer we are in now.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 15:18 | 1715876 CompassionateFascist

"...served cold leftovers." Now THAT's the sign of national GERMAN renaissance that we've been waiting for. YUM! Hopefully the Germans will go on to slough off Europe altogether.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 12:04 | 1715098 NotApplicable