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Update on Middle Eastern Wars

George Washington's picture




 

Since
the U.S. Has Been Planning Regime Change In Syria For Decades, I Guess
the Little Things Like Working On the Same Side as Al Qaeda – or the
Risk of Picking a Fight with Nuclear Powers China and Russia – Are
Ignored

AP reports:

Top U.S. intelligence officials told Congress Thursday
that al-Qaida of Iraq was likely behind a series of bombings against the
Syrian regime in recent months.

 

Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said bombings against
security and intelligence targets in Damascus and Aleppo bear “all the
earmarks of an al-Qaida-like attack”, leading the U.S. intelligence
community to believe the Iraqi militant branch is extending its reach
into Syria.

(this corroborates the Arab League’s findings.)

This is interesting for two reasons.

First, there was no Al Qaeda in Iraq until the U.S. invaded in 2003:

 

(

Despite the repeated attempts by the U.S. to link Saddam to 9/11.)

Second, the U.S., Israel and its allies are fighting on the same side as Al Qaeda: against the Syrian government.

As I noted yesterday, Syria will hold elections and enact a new Constitution in less than two weeks.

But the U.N passed a resolution
today calling for Syrian president (Bashar al-Assad) to resign. The
U.S. and Israel will try to use this as a proclamation of “international
backing” for an invasion of Syria.

Russia said today it does not support regime change:

The deputy minister also said that Russia does not
intend to persuade Syrian President Bashar Assad to accept the Arab
League’s proposal on sending a joint LAS and UN peacekeeping force to
Damascus.

 

Russia opposes any regime change, or removal of President Assad. In addition, Moscow insists on recognizing the role of the opposition in the current violence.

An as I noted last week:

Russia has sent a large naval force
to Syria in a show of support for the Syrian government, and a
high-level Russian general and former member of the Russian joint chiefs
of staff has said that Russia will defend Iran. Iran and Syria have had a mutual defense pact for years, and Iran is purportedly directly assisting the Syrian military in its fight with the rebels … sending 15,000 troops of its own. And China has warned against an attack on Syria.

I guess when a country has been planning regime change in Syria for decades
– little things like working on the same side as our mortal enemies,
having a government agree to elections and a new constitution, or
potentially provoking nuclear powers like China or Russia are ignored.

 

Depsite the Hysteria, Experts Say that Iran Poses Very Little Threat to the West or Israel

 

The war drums are growing very loud.

For example, the former head of Mossad – who has been strongly opposed to war against Iran – has now thrown in the towel, and more or less said that war is inevitable after the car bombs in India, Thailand and Georgia (even though it is not clear that Iran is guilty for those attacks).

But AP notes:

[Defense Intelligence Agency chief Lt. Gen. Ronald]
Burgess tells senators Iran is unlikely to initiate or intentionally
provoke a conflict.

[Director of National Intelligence James] Clapper says it’s
“technically feasible” that Tehran could produce a nuclear weapon in
one or two years, if its leaders decide to build one, “but practically
not likely.”

Indeed, Iran has not attacked another country in hundreds of years. (In the Iran-Iraq war, Iraq was the initial aggressor.)

Moreover, American, Israeli and European leaders all say that Iran has not even decided whether or not to build a nuclear bomb.

And – as the Christian Science Monitor notes – even if Iran did build a bomb – it probably wouldn’t pose much of a danger:

Shrill warnings of war or imminent apocalypse over Iran’s nuclear program have never been so strident, or so ominous.

 

A window is closing fast, the narrative goes, to prevent a fanatical
and suicidal religious regime from acquiring the ultimate tools of Armageddon: nuclear weapons. Within months, some politicians claim, either Israel, the United States, or both may have no choice but to attack Iran to remove this “existential threat” to the Jewish state.

 

The world is facing another Hitler, declares Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,
and this moment of decision is akin to the eve of World War II. Iran
is a threat to Israel and “a real danger to humanity as a whole,” warns
Israeli President Shimon Peres.

 

The tone on the US presidential campaign trail is no less dire. 

 

***

 

In fact, say analysts and nonproliferation experts who have
studied the effect of the bomb on countries, coexisting with a
nuclear-armed Iran – or at least a nuclear-capable Iran – may well be
possible, even inevitable, whether a military strike delays that
outcome or not.

 

Analysts say Iran is not an irrational, suicidal actor that can’t be
deterred. Nor do they believe it is determined to destroy Israel at all
costs. A recent Israeli think tank simulation of “the day after” an
Iranian nuclear test came to the same conclusion: that nuclear
annihilation will not automatically result.

 

***

 

If Iran were to become a nuclear power, the most immediate question
would be what it means for Israel, where warnings have reached
histrionic heights.

“Absolutely nothing will happen,” says Martin Van Creveld, an Israeli
historian and author of some 20 books on military strategy. “Israel
has what it takes to deter Iran, and the Iranians know it.”

 

Mr. Van Creveld is implying that Israel’s own nuclear arsenal of an
estimated 200 warheads would prevent any Iranian first strike. Israel
has the only such arsenal in the Middle East, and – unlike Iran’s
program – it has never been subject to UN inspection or safeguards.

 

“Say they build one bomb – it’s not good enough. They need how many –
2, 3, 5, 10, 20? And that will take them a long time, so it’s all
nonsense,” says Van Creveld. Iran is “not going to commit suicide by
dropping the bomb – or even threatening to drop the bomb – on us.”

***

In Israel, even talking about living with a nuclear-armed Iran has
long been taboo because it might appear to concede that what the US,
Israel, and Europe have declared
“unacceptable” is, in fact, acceptable. Yet that was the scenario of a
simulation last October by the Institute for National Security Studies
(INSS), an Israeli think tank affiliated with Tel Aviv University, that gave insights into what might happen across the region if Iran became a nuclear state.

The surprising result, the day after a hypothetical Iranian nuclear
test, was not war. Instead, all the main players – from Washington to Moscow to Tel Aviv – adjusted rather easily to the new reality, with few dramatic changes in behavior.

Even Iran, rather than wielding its handful of new atomic bombs as a
sword of Damocles over a fearful region, attempted “to use them to
reach an agreement with the major powers to improve its strategic
standing,” according to the INSS report on the simulation published in
January.

“The sky won’t fall the day after,” says Yoel Guzansky, a research
fellow at INSS who shaped the simulation and was an Iran specialist in
the Israeli prime minister’s office for four years until 2009.

***

NATO says it is “unlikely” that Iran would pledge nuclear protection
of its proxies like Hezbollah – and makes no mention of sharing such
hard-won nuclear technology with them, which is a frequent refrain of
hawks and doomsday politicians.

[Geneva-based Iran specialist with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Shahram] Chubin
states in his book on Iran’s nuclear ambitions that “there is no
reason to believe that Iran today, any more than Saddam Hussein
earlier, would transfer WMD [weapons of mass destruction] technology to
terrorist groups like Al Qaeda or Hezbollah.”

Likewise, proliferation expert Joseph Cirincione,
in his 2007 book “Bomb Scare,” points out that nations like Iran and
North Korea are “not the most likely sources for terrorists since their
stockpiles, if any, are small and exceedingly precious, and hence well
guarded.”

 

 

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Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:55 | 2170749 Augustus
Augustus's picture

No, it is not a hate for freedoms.

It is a hate for the way Americans enjoy life.  It is a foundation philosophy of Al Qaeda.

See reference to Sayyid Qutb.

This is only a starting point

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sayyid_Qutb

 

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 11:44 | 2169650 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

no, it's our double ply toilet paper, then our freedoms

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:38 | 2170649 Hamsterfist
Hamsterfist's picture

Toilet paper leaves poop smeared asses. The parts of the world that use water to clean their assholes, have cleaner butts. Americans walk around all day dripping feces down their pants legs. In summation if the Iranians have mastered water butthole cleaning technology, I doubt they hate us for our double ply.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:48 | 2170666 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

It's that same phenomenon that attracts girls to their bad boys

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:14 | 2170525 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

I heard a lot of that stuff was counterfeit.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 09:34 | 2169058 Rossalgondamer
Rossalgondamer's picture

Lt. General Vaught, I appreciate your service and perspective.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 09:32 | 2169052 Hannibal
Hannibal's picture

"Al-Qaeda was in Iraq well before the Gulf war."

Bull Shit!

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 08:54 | 2168933 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Most people don't take into account they really believe that stuff about the 12th Imam.

I think they are like a hornet's nest. I would contain them, have a missile defense, and leave them the hell alone.

I would not discount an EMP attempt. A study of their missile tests shows launches characteristic of an EMP detonation. It could be done with a tramp steamer offshore.

 

Israeli Bombs: A Triad delivery system, maybe 200 warheads.

Iranians: maybe 2 bombs from the black market, 1 they made, and NORK missiles.

Winner: Israel. What are they so afraid of? What a scam.

 

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:08 | 2170474 Augustus
Augustus's picture

The Head Mullah in Charge has stated that the loss of 15 million Iranians would not be too big of a loss, IF it would guarantee that Israel was wiped out.  They are serious nutters who firmly believe that the true followers of The Prophet will simply go to paradise sooner, and anyone not a follower deserves to be delivered to Hell as soon as possible. 

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 09:19 | 2169000 Element
Element's picture

If Illuminist-ooze believe in the occult shit they believe and people from Salt Lake City believe the farcical made-up shit they believe, and Catholics likewise, then yes, you can bet a lot of Islam believe in that also.

Prayer = the publicly acceptable form of speaking to an imaginary friend

See how you reacted to that?

Well, that's how they react to scepticism.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 10:59 | 2169371 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

That's how you control each group, pitting them up against each other.

The only thing I believe is that all of it, is totally fucked up and that farts stink.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 08:35 | 2168912 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Suppose we won't know 'til the boom goes off.  Until then, it's anybody's guess.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 08:35 | 2168911 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

The average American does not know the origins of AQ (an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood) go back before WW2.

During WW2, they teamed up with their natural allies, Germany. After the NAZI defeat, they were used by British Intelligence to suppress Zionist uprisings in Palestine. Eventually, what was to be known as AQ ("the base", meaning the database of intel given to Bin Laden) found a comfortable home with the CIA/British MI.

Extensively used during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, factions became perturbed with the US presence in Saudi, where their meteorite god lives at Mecca.

Money being money, however, they remain a useful tool of covert armed force under the Anglo-American  bankster empire.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ST86JM1RPl0

 

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 11:56 | 2169725 rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

 Nor do many Americans seem much aware of the constant hostility of the US government toward Iran ever since the overthrow of the US-supported despot Shah of Iran, and the ousting of British-US petroleum interests.

That US hostility has included not just economic sanctions, but US support of Saddam in his illegal invasion of Iran, and the  long-term bloody war which ensued.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 11:14 | 2169495 greyghost
greyghost's picture

"natural allies"=germany? they then go to their "natural enemies" the british and then roosting with the cia?????? what clap trap nonsense is this..zionist propaganda???

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 08:24 | 2168893 Augustus
Augustus's picture

It is quite interesting to read of the support for the Assad regime from so many.  They probably still long for a return of Saddam and the stability that butcher brought to the region.  Ron Paul would be proud of the support from these acolytes with regards to retaining the murdering Mullahs of Iran. 

I wonder if these appeasers would even lift a finger to prevent a murder in the house next door.  A dead neighbor is a good neighbor?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:02 | 2170428 psychobilly
psychobilly's picture

Why do you love Hitler and Satan and hate Amerika, Jesus and puppy dogs?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 11:41 | 2169625 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

yeah...the only thing worse is all that support for our regime(s)

why don't you start by doing something to prevent all our murders 

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 11:13 | 2169484 Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

I challenge you to actually read something written by Ron Paul instead of forming your opinions by listening to a news segment by the MSM.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 09:35 | 2169057 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Arguing against military intervention is not the same as 'support' for Assad. Any such intervention (like in Libya) would almost certainly lead to tens of thousands of civilian deaths, and the outcome may be no better than the current situation (in Libya, the new regime is kidnapping, torturing and killing people like it's going out of style).

Deciding not to slaughter an entire neighbourhood to prevent a possible murder in the house next door is not appeasement. It's prudence.

PS - fuck off, neocon shill.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:02 | 2170424 Augustus
Augustus's picture

Big Jim,

Saddam thanks you for your kind rememberances and fondness for his practices.

The Assad family probably has a well screwed goat that they can send you for slaughter.

The Mullahs will gladly arrange a marriage of your daughter (if over nine years old) and to an experienced man of 50 or so.

Your well expressed concern for the welfare of others should get you a job as prison guard or grave digger.  I suspect mental capacity would more likely generate a shovel operator job for you.

PS - quit sucking your own little dick.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:31 | 2170625 battle axe
battle axe's picture

Augustus, you have got to try harder then that...LAME.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:49 | 2170711 Augustus
Augustus's picture

It takes little effort to refute that perfect little apologist wanker.

If you have troubles with a neighbor, don't disturb Jim.  He's probably just minding his own business picking his toes.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 13:45 | 2170325 Canucklehead
Canucklehead's picture

Big Jim, it all boils down to sex.

Many guys in the Middle East could not get laid unless they acted like the big dog... the Alpha male.  If they step over the line and die for allah they get 70 +/- 2 virgins.  What they do with them is a mystery.

Being that they have a collective IQ of 66.6, they may well reason the easier way to get laid is in the afterlife.

A case in point is those recent Iranian bombers in Bangkok who spent their last night with hookers with wee little burkas hiding their private parts.

... Bangkok, get it?

http://www.todayonline.com/World/EDC120217-0000170/Iranian-bombers-partied-with-Pattaya-prostitutes

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:40 | 2170951 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

Pathetic isn't it. Only thing worse is guys who throw big weapons around to compensate for  their penile- petrol inadequecies.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 10:08 | 2169168 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_tMWKpbj3vs

 

dont mess around with jim

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 08:06 | 2168877 laosuwan
laosuwan's picture

George Washington debates Al Queda man on ONN news

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q_OIXfkXEj0

 

 

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 21:55 | 2172079 DOT
DOT's picture

Bush's fault. No doubt . I mean, who ya gonna believe ?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 09:30 | 2169046 falak pema
falak pema's picture

hilarious Onion peel.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 23:34 | 2172265 laosuwan
laosuwan's picture

Yeah, its classic. And George Washington is slipping in his ratings: he could only garner 6 family members to vote the video down.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 08:05 | 2168876 Gold Dog
Gold Dog's picture

Place on ground, light fuse and get away.

(They do seem to be nincompoops in many ways!)

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 07:30 | 2168855 guidoamm
guidoamm's picture

Considering their incapacity to even refine petroleum because of obsolete equipment and incompetent engineering, an Iranian nuclear devise is not a credible threat. At the very least, not to anyone else outside their borders.
But... But... The west now needs something to divert the attention of the masses... Iran is just as good an excuse as aything else..

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 10:38 | 2169265 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Its not just an excuse, its a statement.  TBTB want to assure the Arab States that we will act to protect them as long as they keep selling oil in dollars.  Don't let anybody fool you, the only "National Interest" at stake is the petro-dollar.  Any other arguement (ie terrorism, religion, etc...) is propoganda.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 05:09 | 2168775 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

War!

What is it good for?

...

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:11 | 2170829 Blotsky
Blotsky's picture

Raytheon?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 10:51 | 2169313 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

Great research GW, but I'm still dizzy on what the fuck is going on.

The macro is a mid east takeover. All the rest is baffling bullshit.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 10:04 | 2169158 bigkahuna
bigkahuna's picture

War pads your democrats and republicans pockets. They like war.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 10:09 | 2169172 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

"war pads"......is that like an ipad?

edible?

jesus i must have one

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 11:34 | 2169603 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

"war pads" are more like sanitary napkins

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 10:00 | 2169135 Treason Season
Treason Season's picture

Yowser! George you sure are doing something right what with all the Megaphonies on this thread.

OT Have you read this blogger named Jim Stone?

http://www.jimstonefreelance.com/fukushima.html

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 13:35 | 2170272 john39
john39's picture

that guy smells like cointelpro...

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 09:52 | 2169104 battle axe
battle axe's picture

What is it good for?  Good TV of course..

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 09:15 | 2168981 Element
Element's picture

War!

What is it good for?

 

 

You're never going to make it in finance with that disgraceful attitude.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 08:59 | 2168961 I Eat Your Dingos
I Eat Your Dingos's picture

Absolutely everything that deals with profits

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 08:30 | 2168904 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

What is it good for?

Market volatility, of course! Churn makes bonuses.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 08:13 | 2168881 Optimusprime
Optimusprime's picture

What is it good for?

 

1) Distraction.

2) Distruction.

3) Enormous juicy contracts.

4) Maintaining (and hopefully extending) control.

 

Too bad about all that "collateral damage".

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 09:35 | 2169062 Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

Nope, just collateral... Its how the 99% get to play.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 09:36 | 2169059 Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 07:59 | 2168871 DogSlime
DogSlime's picture

Halliburton?

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