• BullionStar
    05/30/2016 - 21:24
    The US Gold Market is best known as the home of gold futures trading on the COMEX in New York. The COMEX has a literal monopoly on gold futures trading volumes worldwide, but very little physical...

Is the US Economy in a Recession?

thetechnicaltake's picture

Your rating: None

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Fri, 10/14/2011 - 17:35 | 1775418 navy62802
navy62802's picture

It feels like we are in a stagnation. We are stuck on the verge of a full-blown depression, and all it will take to send us over the cliff is one cataclysmic economic event.

Sat, 10/15/2011 - 11:12 | 1776871 asteroids
asteroids's picture

If there is anything I have learned from 2009 to today  is..... THE ECONOMY IS NOT THE STOCK MARKET! No correlation, zip. Not when the man behind the curtain can screw anything for whatever reason.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 18:45 | 1775595 Bob Dobbs
Bob Dobbs's picture

Like all of these financial cataclysms, it really depends who you percieve yourself to be, and what your expectations are.  I grew up in the sixties and early seventies.  I also was present, on active duty, at the end of the 'Vietnam era.'  We lost that one, remember?

That really sucked!  

But now I'm forty years older, and I guess this recession/depression just blows.  Who remembers the double digit inflation of the early eighties?  My wife and I thought we'd never get ahead, so my cheapskate genetics sort of took over.  I still fix my own cars, and I drive cheapos . . .

That really sucks!

College, marriage, children, jobs, and now I'm almost ready to retire.  You kids can have it.  It wasn't at all bad at times, but I'm not always right either.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 21:11 | 1775953 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

you actually lived through the GOOD times of credit boom.....ask your children about their future. No jobs, no money for marriage, no time for kids, no money for college that is now useless, and certainly no retirement.









Sat, 10/15/2011 - 16:04 | 1777442 Bob Dobbs
Bob Dobbs's picture

I do appreciate your concern for the here and now, but it seemed almost as gloomy when I was my kids age.  Different problems.  People adapt, so will you.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 17:25 | 1775080 DosZap
DosZap's picture

I KNOW, it's CN$*,but bear thru if you wish. He remarks we may be/have a CHANCE at a Recession.

Not according to JPM,pay attn to around 3:50 into it, and then the guy to right makes the std obligatory MSM remarks on Gold.

Gold is a ROCK...............really?,I thought  it was METAL,maybe encased in rocks............but, the similiarity ends there.



Fri, 10/14/2011 - 16:08 | 1775059 geno-econ
geno-econ's picture

RE flat for foreseeable future.  Unemployment although lagging, will persist and rising debt to GDP unfavorable trend with Euro waffling equals recession.  Any budget cuts  will have  negative impact.  Sell now and Join Wall St crowd

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 16:05 | 1775045 mynhair
mynhair's picture

A recession in intelligence, yes.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 15:52 | 1774992 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Stock prices that are artificially inflated with printed confetti renders this chart worthless.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 19:22 | 1775704 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

Forget meaningless stock market indices - it's all rigged.  The market was pushed back up by trillions of 0% money dfed into the system by the Fed.


REAL unemployment - the best indicator of a 'recession' or 'depression' - is and has been above 20% - over 23% now, as bad as 1932.   You really don't think that having 1 out of 5 people unemployed or grossly underemployed  is a mere 'recession' do you?

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 14:51 | 1774729 falak pema
falak pema's picture

not if you listen to O'bammy : blame it all on Euro fumble.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 14:52 | 1774728 Taterboy
Taterboy's picture

Resession? You said a dirty word. Warren Buffett will jump out of his bathtub and wash your mouth out with soap.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 14:50 | 1774723 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

The US economy is doing better than expected. No crisis, no Armageddon. US gov deficit is about the same as in 2010, not growing. Boring world we live in.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 21:28 | 1775987 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

banksters are doing better than expected so all is good?


no growth is bad when every other 3rd world hell hole is even growing. Sooner or later complacency catches up and you have 3rd world for your children.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 19:23 | 1775708 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

which is why the poster is getting paid 10 cents a post for pushing this propaganda - living at home in his parent's basement

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 18:59 | 1775636 buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

What are you 'lookingwithamazement' at? Your own BS? And who is 'amazement' - one of your troll pals? Go have a nice nap.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 17:16 | 1775348 narnia
narnia's picture

I live in a major port city near a very active BNSF railway.  Activity has been noticeably slow for about 6 weeks.  

I also had the first fairly empty flight in some time a couple of fridays past.

I bet within shipping & air travel you'll see some forward indicators that answer this question.  

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 14:41 | 1774688 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Ok, I like it, but it may have some holes that need to be rethinked.

Excerpt from a WSJ article this month interviewing the cofounder of the ECRI, and this index:

Economists downplay the WLI because of its high correlation with movements in the stock markets that have been volatile lately. Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, calculates a correlation coefficient of 90% between the WLI and the S&P 500 stock price index.

“Essentially, so goes the S&P 500, so goes the ECRI,” he says.

The WLI, however, is not the only hammer in ECRI’s toolbox, says Achuthan.

To capture the macro-view, ECRI also puts together a long leading and short-leading index. The long-leading index, which has no exposure to equities, started falling back in December 2010 and is still falling.

In addition, ECRI puts together sector-specific indexes that cover areas including manufacturing, nonfinancial services, housing, credit and exports. These indexes are “overwhelmingly showing recession patterns,” says Achuthan.

Even the author of that index doesn't rely upon it and admits it just follows the S&P500 with a 90% correlation.  If that comprises 1/3 or your index, and you also use the price of the S&P500 as another third, you made your index MORE correlated to the S&P500, something it has been widely criticized for.  I love the use of the CFNAI, but I don't get your methodology.

PS:  This market is manipulated.  So in many respects, the price of the S&P500 is more important than any indicator, so you have the last laugh over a lot of very smart people.

PPS:  Historical indicators are dangerous in these days of zero interest rates and heavy manipulation.  A reserve currency can only die once, so you won't find examples of that in an historical chart.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 22:58 | 1776173 thetechnicaltake
thetechnicaltake's picture


This was probably the best and most intelligent response to one of my posts that I have ever had on ZH.  Serious.  Yes, I am aware of the high correlation between ECRI's WLI and SP500; the indicator would function well with WLI and CFNAI alone

I could probably use price alone and predict the next recession with about 80% accuracy....

In any case, thanks!

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 14:49 | 1774722 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"Historical indicators are dangerous in these days of zero interest rates and heavy manipulation.  A reserve currency can only die once, so you won't find examples of that in an historical chart."


True, so does anyone have charts of the death of the pound sterling and how the london exchange was trading?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!