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Watch The Evidence Of Global Real Estate Travails Mount As I Find Stock to Short
Continuing my predictive analysis of a global real estate relapse, I bring you today's headlines followed by updated research of company that we see slated for probable bankruptcy. On to the news of (yester)day, as reported by Bloomberg.
BofA Plaza Goes for $235M in Auction
Reggie Middleton Sets CNBC on F.I.R.E.!!! - Reggie Middleton preaching the travails of commercial real estate in 2012/13 on CNBCBank of America Plaza, the tallest tower in the U.S. Southeast, was sold at a public auction today on the steps of the Fulton County Courthouse after landlord BentleyForbes missed mortgage payments.
The noteholder had a winning bid of $235 million, according to attorney Howard Walker of McGuire Woods LLP, who ran the auction. Holders of commercial mortgage bonds took ownership through a “credit bid” placed by LNR Partners, David Levin said in an e-mailed statement. Levin is vice chairman of Miami Beach, Florida-based LNR Property LLC, the parent company of LNR Partners, the tower’s special servicer.
BentleyForbes, based in Los Angeles, paid $436 million to acquire the 55-story Atlanta skyscraper in 2006 from Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and Cousins Properties Inc. (CUZ) in the city’s biggest property deal. Since the property market peaked a year after the purchase, the 1.25 million-square-foot (116,000-square-meter) building’s value has tumbled with tenants, including namesake Bank of America, reducing space.
Atlanta has the highest rate of late payments for loans on offices bundled into bonds among the largest U.S. metropolitan areas, at 25.3 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s an increase from 10.4 percent a year ago and is more than triple the 7 percent national rate.
The $363 million Bank of America Plaza loan became delinquent in December after BentleyForbes stopped making payments. The loan was partly packaged inside JPMCC 2006-LDP9, which was downgraded byFitch Ratings in December because of expected losses.
As I've been warning in many of my previous posts, ie. (must reads if you have not already done so):
- I Present To You The First Probable US Commercial Real Estate Insolvency Of Many To Come
- The Real Estate Recession/Depression is Here, Eurocalypse Style
- An Overview of a US REIT Headed Towards Distress
- The Greatest Risk To Retail Commercial Real Estate Is? Sovereign Debt! Macro Headwinds! Popping Bubbles! Busted Banks! No, It's The Internet!
- Prepare For CRE Crash And Burn Marks At A Shopping Mall Near You
The can kicking of the last 3 years will come to a head once those 5 year debt instruments issued in 2007 come due in 2012 and 2013. Do banks roll over what is an obviously losing proposition or do they take the money and run. Here is an excerpt of the professional/institutional subscriber document Foreclosure Scenario Analysis showing what happens when you get to the end of the road in the neighborhood Can-Kick! Click to enlarge...
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We have culled the portfolio of nearly 30 properties which we individually valued and found who was due for mortgage/loan maturity in the next year. It didn't look pretty...
Of course, this is not just an "American" thing. The CRE crush will be felt word-wide, particularly in the EU, UK, and China.
- We're At Step 2 Of The Global Real Estate
- The Swiss Real Estate Bubble?!
- The First Major Real Estate Collapse In Europe? I've Found The EU Equivalent Of GGP, The Largest Real Estate Failure In US History
What many do not understand is that the real estate crash of the previous decade is far from over, because The True Cause Of The 2008 Market Crash Looks Like Its About To Rear Its Ugly Head Again, With A Vengeance. This is true for not only the US, but the EU countries as well. Unlike our European and Asian counterparts, many US investors are much too detached to what occurs overseas, quite possibly from a hubristic, apathetic or even ignorant stance that what happens over there has littel effect on us stateside. Unfortunately, that is not the case. What do you think, pray tell, happens when the liquidity starved, capital deprived, overleveraged banks fail to roll over all of that underwater Eu mortgage debt?
Investors seeking safety in Germany, the UK and France may truly be in for a rude awakening!
Professional and institutional subscribers should download the latest deliverable, which illustrates the likelihood of a bankruptcy in our most recent forensic analysis candidate if it were to go the foreclosure route -Foreclosure Scenario Analysis. This is the professional addendum to the general subscriber analysis released in the post I Present To You The First Probable US Commercial Real Estate Insolvency Of Many To Come. The next deliverable will outline distressed sales of properties, and after that I will make available valuation models on 27 properties in the company's portfolio to inequivocably demonstrate that this company has nowhere to go but down. Ain't math something else?
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Median house price in Vancouver is now a whopping $1.3 million.
Median meager income in Vancouver = $68,000
Can you say B-U-B-B-L-E!
Not sure how much of a bubble it is, I think it is driven by real market forces, not speculation. Tens of thousands of rich and upper-class Chinese are buying houses in Vancouver as a way to expatriate their assets, this demand is likely keeping the upward pressure on prices. It doesn't hurt that Vancouver is considered one of the world's most livable cities.
Stoneleigh called for a 90% drop in Vancouver real estate prices, still waiting.
100% Real Estate, 100% succint and to the point.
Big Thanks Reggie :))
"....company that we see slated for probable bankruptcy...."
in a way i would love to see the bankruptcy but in another i know that it is a staged event to further concentrate financial power into a single super national bank.....
Everyone now understands that real estate will fall - each and every year - for the next 20 years.
So there's no reason to buy.
Making matters worse, people are now expecting continued increases in RE taxes - and also wating for the (just a matter of time) elimination of the mortgage interest tax deduction.
So, there's (continuously) increasing reason to sell.
Wait for RE prices to fall (nominal) back to pre-1980 levels. Then, it will be time to buy.
the time to buy is when the prices collapse below the replacement/build cost
even when it does you may have a considerable time to wait, think of a decade or more, before prices take off again
RE has 'had it' as a quick get rich scheme.. i doubt those days will ever come back as we may see a fundamental shift in our preception of what RE is for
The wave of commercial strip centers and malls "Going Dark" will be accelerated as more people shop online which is cheaper and avoids the hassle of the Black Friday thundering herds.
To many people shopping at the mall is more of a social experience or, at least, the big marketing machine has brain washed them into believing. Also, as more people shop online, states loose revenue. In fact, many states are considering taxing online sales.
Who would short stock after the counter-party disaster called MFG? Do you really think your margin account is safe, rather than working against you in some banskter rehypo scheme?
IMO, this qualifies as "selling them the rope they will hang you with."
You may be right Reggie, but as I tell my kids, "You may end up dead right." As long as people like you insist on playing along with the criminals they will win, as you provide the last veneer on their facade of integrity.