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We're Fast Approaching the Lehman Event in Europe (Greek Default)
So nationalization is now the name of the Game in Europe. Indeed, we've now seen three European banks nationalized in the last few days... and France has announced a plan to nationalize 2-3 banks "just in case."
If you'll recall, we tried similar plans in the US with Fannie and Freddie, AIG, and other firms in 2008. That situation didn't work out too well. Indeed, looking back on it, things really started to implode right around the time we started nationalizing companies.
Meanwhile Sarkozy and Merkel continue to make "plans" for what to do... The reality is they have no plans other than throwing money at Europe's banks and the PIIGS.
All they're doing is playing for time while they prepare for a Greek default. Indeed, German officials recently told the Telegraph that a "hard" default for Greece is coming which will feature investors taking a 60% "haircut" on their investments in Greek bonds.
Click here to read more about this.
In plain terms, we're fast approaching the "Lehman" event for 2011. However, this time around, instead of a bank going under, it's going to be Greece's sovereign debt.
Consider the Belgian bank Dexia which just went under... it only had 5.4 billion euros' exposure to Greek debt.
Well, French, German, UK and US exposure to Greece is north of $165 billion. And those same countries have $2.6 TRILLION in exposure to PIIGS debt in total.
So suffice to say that when Greece defaults (and it will) we're going to enter a very very interesting time. Indeed, this will be the Crisis to which 2008 was just the warm-up.
You see, 2008 was caused by toxic debts on private bank balance sheets. Today, thanks to US Federal Reserve and other Central Banks' moves, these toxic debts have moved onto the PUBLIC's balance sheet.
So this time around, the market collapse is ALSO going to feature the bond bubble bursting, sovereign defaults (including eventually the US), MAJOR bank failures (Bank of America?), bank holidays, government shutdowns, civil unrest, and food shortages.
If you have yet to prepare yourself for what’s coming, now is the time to do so. Whether it’s by moving to cash and bullion, opening some shorts, or simply getting out of the markets altogether, now is the time to be preparing for what’s coming (remember, stocks took six months to bottom after Lehman… and that was when the Fed still had some bullets left to combat the collapse).
And if you’re looking for specific ideas to profit from this mess, mr Surviving a Crisis Four Times Worse Than 2008 report can show you how to turn the unfolding disaster into a time of gains and profits for any investor.
Within its nine pages I explain precisely how the Second Round of the Crisis will unfold, where it will hit hardest, and the best means of profiting from it (the very investments my clients used to make triple digit returns in 2008).
Best of all, this report is 100% FREE. To pick up your copy today simply go to: http://www.gainspainscapital.com and click on the OUR FREE REPORTS tab.
Good Investing!
Graham Summers
PS. We also feature four other reports ALL devoted to helping you protect yourself, your portfolio, and your loved ones from the Second Round of the Great Crisis. Whether it’s my proprietary Crash Indicator which has caught every crash in the last 25 years or the best most profitable strategy for individual investors looking to profit from the upcoming US Debt Default, my reports covers it.
And ALL of this is available for FREE under the OUR FREE REPORTS tab at: http://www.gainspainscapital.com.
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I wish someone else wrote this because I just cant take PC seriously.
Greek default already priced in. No Lehman, no contagion, no collapse, no crisis, no Armageddon. Merry Christmas.
I don't know about fast. But this shit can't last forever.
Nobody in Germany will take responsibility and sign on the dotted line to AUTHORIZE a transfer of German taxpayer's money into Greece.
It would be political suicide or worse, a potential declaration of civil war.
i'm trying to figure out how greece could go bankrupt when the smarmy arrogant asshole david rockefeller assured us all in the 1970s when he was chairsatan of chase manhattan that sovereign nations cannot go bankrupt...
somehow i think greece will pretend not to go bankrupt...
It will be late 2012 - early 2013 before your forecast plays out.
I agree. In the US, we have one more "solid" retail holiday year where retail companies make their seasonal hires to get ready for the BF/XMAS rush, and orders for those gifts come into factories around the world for corporations to sell. However, after January, things will start to collapse as numbers aren't met as FINALLY the corporations who sell us our shit realize that Americans aren't going to whip out the Credit Card as much they used to (or if they do, won't be for as much). Never mind the rising UE and civil unrest which will continue to grow like a mold in your bathroom.
Europe still slowly has yarn in the ball that is the EURO, but eventually, there will always be another bank in Europe who will be over leveraged by soverign debt.
When Greece FINALLY defaults, and thanks to govts like France and Germany who, rather than solving the problem (debt forgiveness) would prefer to throw water on a grease fire, THAT will be the trigger for the collapse around next December (which is ironic that on a date where the Mayans predicted the "Coming of a New Age", that this new "Age" maybe brought on by one of the oldest civil governments in the world in the Greeks, going donkdown).
You can only spin the ball of Yarn out so much.
if the global market is about to collapse, does it matter if you own stock at a slightly higher value than today? not a bit, this is the "end of the world, who cares, lets party moment.." people buy stocks on negative mood (its gambling isn't it, here the rent money lover, good luck) which is also something Bob Prechter called "Putting on the Ritz" a famous song from the 30's about some people who put their last few bucks together for one last night out. this is the "Puttin on the Ritz" stock market, and the worst stuff is going up again.
get ready to put on those shorts.
i'd hazard to say we're actually slowwwwwlllllyyyyy approaching a greek default.
that can has been kicked a hell of a lot farther than a lot of people could have imagined possible.
So safety should be OFF by now?
Greek default is by now already priced in.The ESF bodge job will in all likelyhood give the market what it wants-another bailout paid for by taxpayers.And before anyone says the Germans wouldn't stand for it,they will because they will have absolutely no say in the matter,their corrupt politicians will sign away their taxes,savings and pensions to their bankster paymasters.The Euro will soon be making new highs against the dollar and sterling as a result.
All I wanna do is short when i'm given a short signal and buy when i'm given a buy signal.
So bring on the next Lehman for all I care. Why should those in the know make all the damn money.
Where is the bank not getting government help? (like Lehman) In Austria, Spain... The Netherlands ??? Assuming France and Germany will and can help their banks in every case!
If Dinner with Buffet costs xxx?
Then one with Merkel and Sarkozy, saying you could get a few drinks, machinery, and whores into the mix to really get the truth meter up...
That would be...
Priceless.
"If you'll recall, we tried similar plans in the US with Fannie and Freddie, AIG, and other firms in 2008. That situation didn't work out too well."
That statement is subjective, it depends on what side of the fence you were on.
In 2008 we didn't have QE operations running. This time we do:
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
Sure they are not expanding the Fed balance sheet but the bankers are raking in generous fees from each transaction just like POMO. The market is much better rigged this time so don't expect your forcast to play out. If this is not enough then they will print on a massive coordinated scale. Developed economies will go into the toilet but the stock market will melt up. I think there is one more dip coming but the bottom may also already be in for now. It will be late 2012 - early 2013 before your forecast plays out.
OH sure...'QE operations will save us'.....really are you people retarded? You cant even see past the ends of your own nose?
Fake money is FAKE! Its WORTHLESS! Its not a solution to ANYTHING except people are so fucking STUPID they can trick you into believing it DOES!
Hey go buy into it man buy piles of stocks! No ones stopping you, if you believe in this shit, JUMP IN!
"Fake Money" makes the stock market go up - where have you been for the past 2.5 years? For the record I am short for one more dip but recognize the market may go all the way to the 1250 area before that happens. So yes, I wish I did buy piles of stocks a week ago like some other traders did instead of getting hammered on my shorts yesterday. All I'm saying is that if you are expecting a return to 666 this year you will be sorely disappointed. 900-950 maybe.
'Fake money makes the stock market go up'.....AHHH HA HA HA HAAAAA HA HAAAAA!!!
Hey do you have 'historical charts' available?? What was the DOW in 1999? Oh....11,400? HIGHER than where we are today??
DISMISSED!
It makes gold and silver go up.
one day Graham will be ngth its all common sense but somehow they can kick reality and common sense down the road for yet another day
IF they can totaly chain Europe together as 1 with EFSF chains so it all sinks as one unit and theres no way out for any of them, then that day may just be tomorrow.
Thats all thats going on here, they need to ensure theres no way out for Europe, no outlyers to mess up the plan, Europe must implode as 1.
If Europe can implode as 1, then they have a chance of outlasting the slow-moving US implosion.
It's a race to the bottom. Everyone will get there eventually. But the last one there will then rule the world.
When the Swiss decided to debase the franc and throw in with the Eurobanks, it became obvious that they are all joined at the hip. One big happy family, eh?
Thanks Graham. Fuck the haters, let em go buy stocks.