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We're on the mend...barring another Greek tragedy

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Pivotfarm Data Sheet & Journals

Data sheets describing major market metrics, news and a journaling area for trading records in the centre of the pdf.

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News and Views in brief

Economy

The global economy is showing signs of withstanding a European recession triggered by the debt debacle in Greece.

The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 9 percent last month, the lowest since April, from 9.1 percent in September, the Labor Department reported Nov. 4. Chinese manufacturing continued to expand in October, based on an index compiled by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. Even in Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, growth is coming to life: Gross domestic product climbed last quarter for the first time in a year, rising 6 percent according to the median estimate of analysts polled by Bloomberg News.

“Barring Italy turning into Greece, we’ll have a slowdown in the world economy, but a manageable one,” said Jim O’Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management in London. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-07/world-economy-dodging-slump-with-china-u-s-buoy-as-europe-crisis-smolders.html

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will meet the opposition leader today after agreeing to step down to allow a national unity government to secure outside financing and avert a collapse of the country’s economy.

Papandreou and Antonis Samaras, leader of the main opposition party, agreed to form a government to lead Greece “to elections immediately after the implementation of European Council decisions on October 26,” according to an e-mailed statement yesterday from the office of President Karolos Papoulias in Athens. Papandreou already stated he won’t lead the new government, the statement said.

“If we take it to mean that Greece is making efforts to ensure that they continue to receive funding support from the euro zone, then the move is positive,” Sacha Tihanyi, a Hong Kong-based currency strategist at Scotia Capital, the investment banking unit of Bank of Nova Scotia, said today of the decision. “However, it would be much better to see sustained political stability out of the country.” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-07/greece-will-form-national-unity-government-to-secure-eu-emergency-payment.html

 

Italy’s record bond yields are sending the nation down the same path taken by Greece, Portugal and Ireland in the days before they were forced to seek rescues.

Italy’s 10-year notes traded above 5.5 percent for 40 days before breaching the 6 percent mark on Oct. 28 and reaching as much as 6.68 percent today. The bailed-out nations followed a similar trajectory, consistently averaging above 6 percent for about a month before crossing the 6.5 percent barrier. After that, it took an average of 16 days for yields to pass the unsustainable 7 percent level.

“The trend appears worryingly similar,” said Riccardo Barbieri, chief European economist at Mizuho International Plc in London. “Clearly, the longer it lasts, the worse it gets.”http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-07/italy-yield-surge-sets-berlusconi-on-bailout-path-euro-credit.html

 

Indexes

European stocks resumed their losses after a report that Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said he’s not planning on stepping down.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.6 percent to 238.3 at 12:06 p.m. in London. In response to earlier reports that he may quit within hours, Berlusconi denied that he’s stepping down, Ansa said, citing comments from the premier.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-07/european-stock-index-futures-decline-ryanair-ubs-shares-may-be-active.html

U.S. stock futures fell, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will extend its first weekly drop since September, as concern Italy is struggling to manage its debt pushed the country’s bond yields to a euro-era record.

Boeing Co. (BA) and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) retreated at least 1 percent in German trading, leading declines in the stocks most closely tied to economic growth. Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and Citigroup Inc. (C) slipped in early New York trading.

S&P 500 futures expiring in December declined 0.5 percent to 1,244.6 at 7:30 a.m. in New York after earlier falling as much as 1.5 percent. The benchmark gauge retreated 2.5 percent last week. Contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average expiring the same month slid 48 points, or 0.4 percent, to 11,893. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-06/u-s-stock-index-futures-advance-as-greece-moves-closer-to-securing-aid.html

Currencies

The euro fell versus the dollar and yen as Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi faces a budget vote amid pressure to resign, stoking concern the region’s third-largest economy will struggle to manage its debt load.

The euro also weakened against the pound and Canadian dollar as concern mounted that political instability in Italy may push bond yields to levels that will force the region’s second-most indebted nation to seek a rescue. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said he will step down to make way for a coalition government and secure outside financing to avoid a collapse of the nation’s economy. The Swiss franc fell on speculation the central bank will adjust its currency cap.

“The market will be reluctant to buy the euro for now given negative news out of the region,” said Jane Foley, a senior currency strategist at Rabobank International in London. “The problem in Greece hasn’t been resolved and now the market has Italy to worry about. Bond yields suggested the market is pretty nervous, and quite rightly so.”http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-06/euro-rises-after-greece-forms-unity-government-to-secure-international-aid.html

The pound rose for a third day against the euro as speculation that European leaders are failing to come to grips with the sovereign debt crisis boosted demand for British assets as a haven.

Sterling extended its biggest weekly gain versus the 17- nation currency since January. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou agreed to step down to allow the creation of a unity government and Italy’s borrowing costs climbed to a euro-era record as Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s majority unraveled before a parliamentary vote tomorrow. U.K. gilts rose as a report showed U.K. employment confidence fell.

“Euro-sterling is trading on a down trend and has further to go,” said Neil Jones, head of European hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in London. “The performance of sterling is quite a barometer of how foreign-exchange markets are perceiving euro-land issues at the moment.” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-07/u-k-pound-gains-against-euro-as-europe-struggles-to-contain-debt-crisis.html

Commodities

Speculators reduced wagers on higher commodity prices for the first time in four weeks on mounting concern that Europe’s failure to contain its debt crisis will slow economic growth and demand for raw materials.

Money managers cut combined net-long positions across 18 U.S. futures and options by 3.9 percent to 798,787 contracts in the week ended Nov. 1, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 raw materials tumbled 14 percent since reaching a 32-month high in April.

More than $1.4 trillion was erased from the value of global equities last week as the MSCI All-Country World Index retreated for the first time since September. Markets were roiled by Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou’s now-abandoned call for a referendum on a bailout plan and a Nov. 2 statement from Federal Reserve policy makers warning of “significant downside risks to the economic outlook.”http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-06/hedge-funds-slash-raw-material-bets-for-first-time-in-a-month-commodities.html

Gold climbed to a six-week high in London as concerns about Europe’s debt crisis spurred demand for the metal as a protection of wealth.

Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s allies pressured him to step aside after contagion from the region’s sovereign debt crisis pushed Italy’s borrowing costs to euro-era records. That overshadowed Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou’s agreement to step down, sending European equities lower.

“Gold is responding to the general market mood that the European crisis will develop much worse before it gets better,” said Bayram Dincer, an analyst at LGT Capital Management in Pfaeffikon, Switzerland. “At the moment we do not have a foreseeable lasting solution and high uncertainty remains.”

Immediate-delivery gold gained as much as $18.70, or 1.1 percent, to $1,773.35 an ounce, the highest price since Sept. 22, and was at $1,768.15 by 11:17 a.m. in London. Gold for December delivery was 0.8 percent higher at $1,769.50 on the Comex in New York.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-07/gold-climbs-to-six-week-high-as-greek-italian-risk-stokes-haven-demand.html

 

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Tue, 11/08/2011 - 01:11 | 1855619 EZYJET PILOT
EZYJET PILOT's picture

Whovever wrote the market could go up because GS has more money than us, yes they do courtesy of us!

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 17:31 | 1854764 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Is this Bullish...or just plain Bull?

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 16:43 | 1854564 cdskiller
cdskiller's picture

This was a test, ladies and gentlemen, and we passed. Before zerohedge, this kind of deceptive, brain-dead gobble-de-gook (it doesn't deserve to be called an argument or an analysis) was acceptable. Not anymore.

Look how easy it was to pick apart, to see through, to debunk, sentence by nonsensical sentence. Everyone here is above this shite. Let us give thanks.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 14:57 | 1854085 Coast Watcher
Coast Watcher's picture

All you critics are missing the point. Tyler is using this piece of Obama Administration propaganda to inoculate us against the shitfest that is about the descend on us all as the election season heats up. The Cramer-speak is only beginning, and it will be worse than anything we've seen to date.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 14:44 | 1854046 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

Latest NASDAQ chart porn suggests fun times ahead:

http://stockmarket618.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/2011-11-05_nas-8_x.png

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 14:38 | 1854024 Cone of Uncertainty
Cone of Uncertainty's picture

I never read this, I never will read this, and you can go to hell.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 14:55 | 1854081 upWising
upWising's picture


DRINK alcohol (If a little is good, a lot is better).
WATCH television (It's ALL true!!  That's why it's on TeeVee!!)
EAT ALL you can (That's why they call it All-You-Can-Eat Buffet!!!)
SUPPORT your Preacher (He deserves it because HE is a Man of the Cloth!!)
MAX OUT the Credit Card (If a little Credit is good, a lot of Credit is Better!!!)
WAVE YOUR FLAG (And Know Your Are Defending the Homeland) 

but above all....

F A I T H    &    C O N F I D E N C E    I N   T H E    S Y S T E M

(let the faithful say "amen.")

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 14:16 | 1853946 Sigma X
Sigma X's picture

I don't mind reading opinion that differs from my own.  But, how does article support the headline in any way?  If you were to say the US and European ECRI indexes, which haven't given off a false positive regarding recession and have dipped below the levels indicitave of such, that might make some sense.  The article however, does not.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 15:29 | 1854255 weinerdog43
weinerdog43's picture

Indeed.  I didn't find any analysis in the article either.  On the bright side however, I do enjoy your avatar.  +1

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 14:13 | 1853937 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Lesson #1 in investing - look for data points that DO NOT confirm your thesis. If you surround yourself with yes men then you will get destroyed. No different from running a business or country.

You guys need to chill out. Nothing wrong with posting the otherside of the arguement.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 14:52 | 1854067 d00daa
d00daa's picture

Yeah right, except the author hasn't offered any data points that confirm the headline of the article, let alone don't confirm my thesis.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 13:52 | 1853845 hannah
hannah's picture

what a load of cr@p...LOL...! AGAIN I SAY IT AGAIN....who at zerohedge allows this kind of cr#p article to be published here...? i really dont get it.....

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 13:56 | 1853872 I Got Worms
I Got Worms's picture

I stopped reading after I hit the first period.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 14:58 | 1854093 hannah
hannah's picture

(/tampon)....THERE I FIXED IT FOR YOU

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 14:07 | 1853911 strannick
strannick's picture

On the mend? No further Greek tradgedies? Gold begs to differ. We'll soon be adding Italian farces, Spanish ballads, and Irish ditties.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 13:32 | 1853750 falak pema
falak pema's picture

I think that all of you guys suffer from extreme myopia and dystopia. What the guy really, really said is :

We're on the bend...now that is a way of saying we're on the River of no return...But it came out like "mend" as in "mend my trend to confound bend and mend". 

Its a time honoured false flag media game, and its called knowing how to read between the thighs...sorry, if you've understood the real meaning, it's between the lines... but then don't bend my mend-set, barring all greek comedy.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 13:26 | 1853734 surrational
surrational's picture

Barring another greek tragedy? In my opinion the real tragedy is whats happening to the Greek people on a daily basis as they are being pillaged by the same financial terrorists that caused the crisis.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 16:25 | 1854508 Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

Believing a socialist government when it tells you that you every citizen in a tourism nation can retire at age 52 is not a tragedy it is willful ignorance of the "no free lunch" principle. The Greeks are acting like children throwing a tantrum, and it is their own fault for ignoring reality.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 13:13 | 1853675 Bastiat
Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:39 | 1853453 NuYawkFrankie
NuYawkFrankie's picture

Yup - We're on the mend!

And in other Breaking News - Lorena Bobbit's hubby claims he's Never Felt Better!

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:53 | 1853543 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

LOL

 

 

Divot Farm - isn't that a grave yard?

Don't confuse withstanding with inaction due to being overwhelmed with a great sense of foreboding.

 

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:14 | 1853331 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

(/sarc)

 

There fixed it for you......some here do not always get humor

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:09 | 1853308 extona
extona's picture

Anything else you would like to include, Mr. President?

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 11:53 | 1853231 EZYJET PILOT
EZYJET PILOT's picture

What a berk! I don't understand ZH, most of the time the stuff is fantastic and then occasionally Tyler lets this nonsense be posted. ZH should align itself soley with the truth, don't give air time to obvious shills and corrupted bastards. This really is the 11th hour now, we don't need crap like this article.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 14:49 | 1854061 DavidC
DavidC's picture

It's precisely WHY ZH is so good.

Tyler posts stuff even if it doesn't agree with a given viewpoint, which I, for one, am glad of. At least it makes me THINK, even if I don't agree with that given viewpoint.

Sooner that than a bunch of zealots only posting stuff they want to see and having NO acknowledgement of any other viewpoints at all.

Open your mind.

DavidC

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 17:43 | 1854787 roadlust
roadlust's picture

Plus, I hate to say, this market is not ACTING like the eurozone is about to implode, and the world is nearing financial meltdown.  It went UP today, in case no one is paying attention, and is STILL over the 20dma.  The chart is bullish in view of unrelenting negetive news.  Everyone is calling it "short covering," but the boys at GS have more money than you do, and can push that shit higher indefinitely.  We've had mulitple days to follow up on the big decline, and there's been no follow through.

The fundamentals (i.e. truth) became divorced from the markets long ago.  Unless there's a panic or a money contraction, US equities could go up here.  (But not from an "improving" world economy.) 

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 14:49 | 1854059 Shock and Aweful
Shock and Aweful's picture

the truth is in the mind of the beholder

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 14:48 | 1854055 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Quit badmouthing the comic relief.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 11:44 | 1853174 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

He's right you know.  Barring things getting worse ... things will get better!  Brilliant.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 11:36 | 1853124 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

I'm here to report that today's headline in HK was that the Chief Administrator of the HK SAR has turned bearish in his global outlook, which basically means Beijing is bearish.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 13:37 | 1853770 DOT
DOT's picture

This is Bullish, no?  ;)

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 11:28 | 1853078 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Over the last week, I have been witness to some of the most confusing doubletalk yet.  However, I am not confused.  I smell politics, PR men, and professional liars.  And the with the amount of bullshit that is being floated, I imagine there is a shitberg the size of New Jersey (and with roughly the same composition) somewhere waiting just beneath the surface.

The shithawks are coming boys....

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 11:28 | 1853077 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

Aah yes, he healing miracle of debt, criminal government and war for oil.  I imagine the author will be down-right giddy when the One World government comes a mending...

 

Alright, out behind the shed with you, pivot.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 11:17 | 1853026 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

 

Cramer is that you?

"The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 9 percent last month, the lowest since April, from 9.1 percent in September, the Labor Department reported Nov. 4"

I stopped reading right there. If you believe those numbers ( when millions are dropping out of the labor force) then you need to Peddle your crap over at Yahoo.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 11:13 | 1853012 digitlman
digitlman's picture

Fuck this fucker.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 11:12 | 1853005 HD
HD's picture

Now that's comedy. Who wrote this - Mad Money Cramer and the CNBC Hopium crew?

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:16 | 1853336 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

We've had a plug who's behind Pivot but Master of Happy Data like this is Steve Liesman ...or maybe it's Obummas team of snake oil spreaders begun their election campaign real early

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 11:12 | 1853001 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

We're on the mend...barring another Greek tragedy

This is the stupidest "Head Line" I have read in a good long while.

Who here is dumb enough to drink this swill offered by this salesman of paper products? the most expensive toilet paper in the World.

 

NO WORRIES! Everyone back in the Water! the HFT Front Running, Gate Keepers that lag you out of any real money are no longer looking for you.. as it is a completely automated process, separating you from your dumb money! SO! JUMP BACK IN!! Hurry! as the sooner you Jump! back in the sooner the Bonus Train can start back up!

 

OR!

 

Pay to Play! get a Box! Learn a new Language (Rosetta Stone C+++! LOL!) and then pay for the most expensive real estate in New Jersey! that would be your co-lo. ALL! IS!! WELL!!!

 

I don't know why I bother.. there are sooooooooooooo MANY! Sheepeople! out there who are just dying to give away their hard work or someone's hard earned money to these scumbag(s) running the smoke and mirrors magic show!

 

If you would like to piss away your money! give to a Bum for Beer, Drugs and Hookers! You would be better off in the end.

 

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 11:10 | 1853000 dumpster
dumpster's picture

unemployment dropped to 9%  with fictional jobs created out of thin air.

and a discussion created out of hot air .

why is it when 22% of folks are out of work  the wonks delude them selves into pavlovian speak of 9%.

this guy is on the payroll of the clowns.   .

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 16:00 | 1854397 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

"why is it when 22% of folks are out of work the wonks delude them selves into pavlovian speak of 9%."

Because they think that other 13% is lazy. It's kind of ironic because the average person in that 13% probably produced more in a day than the average mo-mo pump and dump day trader or HF operator will ever produce in his/her life.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 11:02 | 1852962 Poofter Priest
Poofter Priest's picture

Do they sell what you are smoking at the medical pot dispenseries?

I'm on my way there now.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 10:41 | 1852888 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL! Oh sure, all is well and on the mend, as long as the free money spigot is left on at full blast and 0% interest. 

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 11:33 | 1853103 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6iXhAPTGyfQ&list=PL390994525BF74829&index=26&feature=plpp_video

and..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2vsYdReMCg&list=PL390994525BF74829&index=21&feature=plpp_video

I hope All is Better than Well for You and Yours SheepDog!

Sheepards get all the credit but SheepDogs do all the work!

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 10:39 | 1852880 Coldcall
Coldcall's picture

is it April 1st already?

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 10:38 | 1852873 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Leo - is that you?

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 10:37 | 1852868 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

So, what has changed?

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 10:26 | 1852828 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Hey ....

Are you delusional...?

Just asking ?

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 14:53 | 1854073 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

I thought they were not allowed to have access to the net in hospital.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 10:24 | 1852825 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Blah blah blah.  "Barring Italy turning into Greece"  whatever, the entire western world is Greece. Hedge accordingly.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 09:40 | 1852692 SwapThis
SwapThis's picture

Always good to see a glass-half-full appraisal of the market but.....“Barring Italy turning into Greece"  --  Right....Other than that Mrs Lincoln, how was the theater?

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