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What was Your Expectation for this Thanksgiving Week?
What was your expectation for this Thanksgiving week?
My expectation was that the market would go higher and bounce back from the previous week’s onslaught, and I am sure that was yours as well. Volume was destined to be light. The headlines, while scary, were prone to rumors, which leads to price spikes. After all, this is Thanksgiving week. The market always goes up during Thanksgiving week. It’s America, baby. Mom and apple pie. A buoyant stock market during Thanksgiving is what we have come to expect.
If your expectation was for higher equity prices this week and you are feeling a little bit perplexed and bamboozled, trust me you are not alone. The Rydex market timers have been extraordinarily bullish this past week as well. I guess these traders were expecting the bounce that never came. Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P Depository Receipts (symbol: SPY). The indicator in the bottom panel is a ratio that measures the amount of assets in the Rydex bullish and leveraged funds to those assets in the bearish and leveraged funds. This is a unique data point because we are looking at where investors, whom are typically wrong on the market, are putting their money. This is not an opinion poll but real money. Furthermore, not only do we get to see how these traders are betting on market direction, but we also see whether they are doing it with conviction (i.e., use of leverage).
Figure 1. SPY/ daily
For the past week, the Rydex bullish and leveraged to bearish and leveraged ratio has been above 2 all week. That is, there are twice as many leveraged bulls as leveraged bears, and values above 2 are typically bearish. Of note, last night’s value was 2.65, which was the highest value since July, 2011.
I guess we know what these market timers were expecting, and we definitely know what they got.
Let me also remind readers that we are offering a 1 month FREE TRIAL to our Daily Sentiment Report (formerly Premium Content), which focuses on daily market sentiment and the Rydex asset data. This is excellent data based upon real assets not opinions! We have a new 1-click sign up process! Credit cards are not required.
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1 more day on Friday. Need an up 5% day though. Fucking PPT. Fuckers
Only ignorant equity bulltards do not bother to consider fundamentals. They are usually Polyannas with no real idea what is going on in the world; only in their own little worlds and mind. Dumb money always; no doubt!
Yep. It's called getting whipsawed and a lot of people got it this week. I'm finding that the opposite of what is likely to happen is now happening. Everyone is forecasting deflation so I'm calling bullshit and today I just bought a ton of CEF (Canadian physical Gold/Silver fund) so I can buck the trend. Plus I'm more pissed off than usual about our banking cartel and politicians and when I get pissed off I buy gold and silver.
My Thanksgiving week expectation is the same as every other week. Lots of spin and pablum spewing about supposed "moves" and "trends" in the so-called "markets" with only peripheral discussion about the unchanging vector that the macro insolvency issues have us all on. Even the Euro bank runs and over/under wagers on when the ECB is going to push print are viewed with a micro eye.
Market up. Market down. It's irrelevant.
Gotta second that motion about the market always going up around thanksgiving & Christmas...this year, shorted some SDS for a hedge ... :( ...So, got killed yesterday, as I had shorted some homebuilders... so many experiences that support Murphy's law in my life!
You CANNOT rely on any historical indicators such as P/E, Santa claus rallys, hems on skirts or the like...we are in extraordinary times where every aspect of financial worlds are manipulated by central banks and policy...until the collapse clears out all the debt and governments back off of markets, expect lower and poorer results across the board than "normal"
I don't buy into this Santa Rally / Thanksgiving Rally/ insert holiday here rally.
I think it is a marketing gimmick to part dummies from their cash. Period.
Who writes shit like this and how does it come to be posted on ZH?
[sarcasm]Go buy some GRPN, it's on sale![/sarcasm]
whom are typically wrong? pot/kettle.
"The market always goes up during Thanksgiving week. "
Are you kidding me?
Go back and check the last few T-days
Good grief...what a douche
My expectation was simple, I told everyone on this forum that the market was priced at almost all time highs, particularly oil futures and oil companies. I was very clear when I said SHORT anything. So, I will be enjoying a wonderful Thanksgiving as I did just as I had stated. It is truly a beauty when basic principles of macro economics rule in the end.
Everyone here waits with baited breath to hear your next trade....What would we do if you didn't post? As Nigel Farage would say "Who the HELL do you think you are??"