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What's up in Cyprus? War?
I’ve been following events in Cyprus for the past few months. I wrote about this on 8/1. In that piece I concluded that an EU led bailout of Cyprus was right around the corner. As it turns out, I was way off the mark. There has been a series of developments. It's an interesting tale.
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Two years ago Iran was exporting munitions to Syria.
The weapons were in containers on the Monchesgorsk.
The USS San Antonio interdicted the Manchesgorsk at high sea.
The cargo of high explosives was delivered to a naval base on the Island of Cyprus.
The explosives were stored in a tent.
(A tent? What were they thinking of?)
Then there was a brush fire.
(July 11th)
Followed by a big blast as the TNT went up.
It blew up the naval base and nearby power station.
The Central bank had this to say:
There is an imminent threat of Cyprus joining the European Union Support Mechanism, with everything bad that this entails.
The situation looked bleak.
But then a great White Knight appeared:
Russia would provide the cash that Cyprus needed
Does Russia have an ulterior motive? Could it be gas?
The Cyprus gas story is connected to the big find in Israeli waters last year.
Nobel Energy found the gas in Israel. Guess who's drilling in Cyprus for gas today?
No gas has been found as of yet. But a "dispute" started right away.
Some dispute, the talk is war.
The Russians have sent subs. They seem to be taking things seriously.
The EU is begging for restraint.
The Americans are sending Drones. Surprised?
Is there any bad blood on the USA side of the Cyprus - Russia story? Of course there is! From a year ago:
From the UK Guardian:
A man believed to be one of Russia's most capable agents, arrested in Cyprus this week as a suspect in the spy ring, has almost certainly fled the island, the justice minister, Loucas Louca, said.
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Less
than 72 hours after he was last seen on Cyprus, speculation is
mounting that Christopher Metsos, the alleged paymaster of a Russian
network operating under deep cover in the US, was allowed to "disappear" by a government which caved in to pressure from Russia.
This is a nutty story. It shows what a complex world we live in. It also
confirms how unstable the middle east is these days. It shows that the
big powers are still butting heads. This is a stupid issue for drones
and submarines to be getting involved. Especially when they're Russian
and US equipment.
This map shows that Cyprus is geographically right in the middle of some dangerous territory. We don't need another reminder that the Middle East and hydrocarbons keep getting us in trouble. Do we?
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the majority of the people in Isreal are not Zionist - but non-Zionist aren't much into ruling so they get shepherd like everyone else
Interesting. What are the odds of selling this idea in Israel? I would assume very close to zero.
bruce baby ( THANK YOU FOR REPLYING TO MY COMMENT, youre my favorite poster on ZH, along with CD and a couple others) , i'm one for believing the israeli's are the particularly clever.....mossad are reknown for their success.
unfortunately , some of the people who enjoy movies, ( some not all ) are too stupid to appreciate that the reality of mossad's success is based not on ultra-violence, but on using inteligence for backdoor negotiations that save face while establishing the best policy for israel.
so maybe, they are already considering this. who knows.
furthermore, a deal like this would have to be done hush hush or somewhat secretly at least. why?
turkey is positioning itself on the news as pro-arab so for pr purposes it's a tough corner to have people push you into, it looks publicly like extortion. but while israel would be embarrased, so too would the turkish leadership as they would look to be 'selling out' the gazans or west bankers to israel for royalties. but most turks really don't care. while muslim, turks remain much more secularized and westernized or just non-arabized despite recent news about their military defections and political turning. NO ONE but foolish liberals in america and europe are deceived by this trust me----basic reading of turkish history the turks slaughtered the arabs ruthlessly jsut as they did south eastern europeans---while the turkish empire died 100 years ago, people still remember what they did. my grandfather was a turkish guard in jerusalem and spoke turkish and he worked beside many arabs --mostly muslim but some christian----that worked for the same boss until the british showed up).
the final joker is russia and iran. they might well try and mess an agreement like this up with some form of sabotage. it is well known RUSSIA is helping construct a major naval base in the syrian ports of latakia and 1 or 2 others.
this is perhaps the BIGGEST threat to israel. and strategically, the u.s. MUST be making some sort of deals with russia behind closed doors otherwise russian incringment on the medittereanean could either be being overlooked by the u.s. military, or silently condoned, (perhaps for pressuring souther europe to do as the IMF says with a threat of being fed to the russian shark?)
the truth on the big X factor,---russian involvement in the medittereanean---is clearly over our heads and the intelligence community is probably being kept on their toes trying to aascertain what is 'really' going on .
my take is that, just like drug dealers or shrewd businessmen, russia is just putting out its feelers to see what they ccan get away with or what the reactions will be . and they do so at little financial cost to themselves so it is a win win for them. even if they fail in their endeavors, it's a very cheap lesson/testing exercise. i trust they will do what is right for themselves. and to that end, they would only support arab regimes to the extent those frienships could get them leverage over europe , the u.s. , china, or other major competitors and suppliers of resources and technology.
anyways, bruce i'm a new yorker, and if you're ever around, i'd love you to stop by for lunch. i don't knwo if youre from here, but if you have a spare 5 minutes sometime, i'd be happy to meet up and make your acquantance.
Interesting. I'll be watching for your future comments...
who me? or bruce? :)
'kill them, and make them understand'.
That about sums up the j000s in regards to the goyim.
fp:
Moderate? We shall see.
- Ned
Turkey and muslim radicalism : Reminder; don't forget Ataturk's legacy and Ottoman power play over centuries which was NOT "radical religion" oriented, but classic imperial power play. (Ottoman-French alliance against Hapsburgs etc.)...Turkey has historically been a moderator along this clash of civilization divide.
Well, lets see in the current age who uses religion as ideology in muslim world...the most rabid are on shiite side : Iran.
On sunnite side it is traditionally the Wahhabites, the Saud clan. But since Operation Desert Storm (1991) they have been overtaken by the splinter group known as Al-Qaeda, whose number 2 is an ex-Muslim brotherhood militant; allegedly involved in Sadaat's assassination. Now, since the Taliban thing was concocted, ironically with the CIA's blessing, by Zia ul Huq of Pakistan, since 1979 days, Pakistan has become the hub of Muslim fundamentalist sunnist militantism.
I don't know what the immediate future holds, but further down the road, it is inevitable that the muslim world turn its back on religious fundamentalism. It took the West three centuries to do that (1500-1800). The Muslim world has been in ideological limbo, deep freeze, since 1400. But the thawing out will now begin, its ineluctable. Both in IRan as in Arab lands. That's time's arrow and it won't stop. In fact, the West's regressionary play around the Oil patch since 1950 and Russia's involvement in this game since SOviet days, is accelerating this sense of political/ideological consciousness amongst the Mid East people. Its a long, bumpy, tragic road ahead for them. But its now on the move, accelerated by the demise of pax americana, totally implicated in defending its golden oil patch AT ANY COST. Now having sowed over sixty years by being in bed with every type of surrogate, corrupt regime to serve its strategic purpose, it is reaping the whirl winds. We will all suffer for many years as the world does not know how to turn its back on Mid-East oil. Tragic.
Israel is just a pawn in this game. As was Palestine during the british reign. Balfour's ghost and FDR's handshake haunt the lands that were considered Holy by three Abrahamic religions. How murderous are the consequences of supposed Holyness is the irony of the human condition.
Yes Ned good job highlighting that. That "traditional role" may already be gone. Remember the Turkish military brass resigned in mass this past June. That was just another sign of what is coming in Turkey. There have been other signs. Turkey has changed. Cyprus is Kashmir.
bugs_: Yep, I was junked during the Egypitan "uprising" for mentioning the Muslim Brotherhoodz ongoing involvement. And, after a coupla' months: voila.
Yes, I'm recalling the Turk Military bosses resigning; gotta' wonder what kind of blanket pressure causes that to happen to what (in my limited experience with them) was a rather professional corps. Had to be threats against their families, en masse.
I take the point, but, perhaps was is more operative. Greeks are so fubar that they can't (guessing here) support their skosh' half. That leaves either a power vacuum or a situation that is ripe for misadventure.
But Turkey has an opportunity to control Cyprus; we'll see the degree of Turkey's religio-political change in short order in Cyprus. Whole spectrum of possibilities that will resolve in the near-term (<6 months imho). Turkey wrt "gaza flotilla" is the other telling event.
We'll see.
- Ned
{OT: and how cool are we with _ in the handle ;-) }
[Ed.: Dang, bugs_, I finish this post, look around, and thoughts of the imposition of "ethnic cleansing" situations come to mind. That doesn't really shock me; what does is the mix of proponents and targets. Gotta' think that through.]
[[Ed.**2: http://thomaspmbarnett.com/ is worthy of a gander.]]
Follow the money
http://www.gpbfs.com.cy/
Follow the Russians:
http://www.cyprusnewsreport.com/?q=node/4540
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyprus%E2%80%93Russia_relations
http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2009/05/russias-secret-war-plans.html