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Which Way Wednesday - Let's Try Dylan's Way!
Which Way Wednesday - Let's Try Dylan's Way!
Courtesy of Phil of Phil's Stock World
Kudos to Dylan Ratigan for losing his temper and telling the TRUTH:
Ratigan is everything a reporter used to be in the days when integrity mattered. He told CNBC to shove it rather than toe the line and push their snake oil and his show is a breath of fresh air in an otherwise stale media landscape. I love the way he sits there listening to the same political BS as we all do from his panel for 3 minutes and 45 seconds and then literally explodes in RIGHTEOUS anger. I often feel the same way and sometimes explode the same way, but to see a host do it on TV (other than Jon Stewart) is just fantastic - it's what this country needs if we are ever going to save ourselves - complete change in the system.
As Dylan says: "I have been coming on TV for 3 years doing this and the fact of the matter is that there is a refusal on both the Republican and Democratic side of the aisle to acknowledge the mathematical problem, which is that the United States of America is being EXTRACTED - it's being extracted through banking, it's being extracted through trade, and it's being extracted through taxation and there's not a single politician that is willing to step forward and deal with this."
Yesterday was a ridiculous day in the markets, with the Dow rising 250 points, then falling 500 points and then rising 800 points into the close for a net gain of 429 points on the day. We had a lot of fun trading it but it's sad to see our markets trading like a 3rd World country. I have been warning for years that: "If our government pursues Asian-style Central Banking policies they will subject our markets to Asian-style market swings" (see "Stock Market Crash - Year One in Review - The Gathering Storm"). In July of 2009 I warned:
Our stock markets have already started trading like those crazy Asian markets. Why? Manipulation is why. Control of the media by government and business allows focused messages to go out to the people so investors can be stampeded in and out of the markets at the will of the people who control the message.
You need to look no further than yesterday's insanity to see how this madness plays out (chart by David Fry) as the Fed failed to deliver and explicit QE3 message at 2:15 and by 2:45 we were down 3.5%. But then, a miracle occurred and someone threw the BUY switch at around 2:45 and the crowds stampeded the other way in the best Bugs Bunny fashion.
Fortunately, at 2:46 I had put up a note to Members in Chat to take the money and run on our bearish play (the IWM Aug $63 puts, up 66%) and we flipped bullish at 2:50 with the DIA Aug $111 calls at $1.50 and those made a nice double into the close (we went back to cash to be safe). That's 166% on two trades in two hours - which is why I just don't understand why people are so unwilling to go to CASH!
Cash is good, cash if flexible and, if the Dollar rises, cash is even a good investment. This is a TERRIBLE market to be invested in. Whether you are bullish or bearish you can lose 10% of your portfolio overnight. Even if the market comes back the next day, math becomes your enemy as $100 losing 10% becomes $90 but $90 gaining 10% becomes just $99 so you end up leaving $1 on the table which is, as Dylan points out, an EXTRACTION of your wealth by Wall Street.
"THEY" don't care if you win or lose - as long as you play the game. That's why hucksters like Cramer will run you in and out of positions until you are wiped out and then the Cramers of the World will wait a few days for the next bunch of suckers and do it all over again. This is how the system is designed -- BE THE HOUSE, and not the gambler. There are still many many people who are gambling on these markets and, when the swings get this wild - the risks simply become unacceptable.
We almost got back to Friday's close on our expanded Big Chart and we have NO interest in taking bullish positions (other than working our way into very long-term positions we think are oversold) until we get back to our new "Must Hold" levels and those are still 10% away on the Russell and about 5% away on the rest. Anything less than that is just noise as we bounce off a major downward move in the market due to FUNDAMENTAL changes in the long-term outlook for GDP, Debt, Unemployment and Corporate Profits.
A lot of this stuff has always been with us, as I pointed out 10 days ago: "All of this is just a huge distraction from our GDP, which is now running at an average of 0.85% for the first half of the year. Keep in mind that our Government told us that GDP was 1.9% for Q1 3 months ago on Friday they said "Oops, did we say 1.9% – turns out it was actually 0.4%."
This is a BAD. My commentary in that Monday morning post (8/1), when the Dow was spiking up to 12,200 was:
So this morning, Cramer is back to BUYBUYBUY and, amazingly, acting as if he expected this all the time after he stampeded his sheeple out of stocks at the bottom last week! What am I saying this morning? As I just posted in Member Chat – SELLSELLSELL! Not all of it at once but let’s take half our bullish profits off the table and set reasonable stops on the other half and let’s add to Friday’s disaster hedges and we’ll even take some speculative short-term downside plays because "good" news is already priced into the morning pop but the Obama/Reid deal still has to get past the lunatics in the House and that’s a coin flip at best.
EVEN If we do get a deal today – what does it fix? We’re still in debt, our GDP is far worse than expected, unemployment is still out of control and NOW – we are CUTTING Government spending. That is just BAT-SHIT CRAZY! Austerity is not growth. Again, look at the chart above – our $15Tn GDP is actually $13.3Tn, that’s 10% less than the benchmark both the Dumbocrats and the Republican’ts are using to base their income projections for the next decade. A $15Tn economy that is growing is the number they are using to project jobs and exports etc. and it’s already off by 10% and SHRINKING! This is lunacy folks – DO NOT GET SUCKED IN!
The next day, on TV, I said we could have a 20% correction off the top and yesterday I said we should bounce 4% off that 20% bottom (sorry, not on TV). Today we have to hold that 4% line (15% off the top for luck, our -5% lines) or we're back to being bearish. I am not a flip-flopper - we are simply playing a very well-defined channel, so try not to be surprised when I change my position at our inflection points and especially at the top and bottom of the channel (see yesterday's post for channel charts) - THAT'S WHERE WE'RE SUPPOSED TO FLIP!
The chart above done by Pentaxon, one of our PSW Members and it illustrates how low the S&P has fallen when priced in a global currency basket. This is INSANE! We are back near our March 2009 panic lows in constant currency. We had a very good time buying then and we will have a very good time buying again but that's still another 10% or so down from here so, for now, we watch and wait - CASHY AND CAUTIOUS - because up or down - there will always be something to trade tomorrow if we keep ourselves flexible.
Even as I write this, the Dollar is being pumped up almost a full point pre-market (9am) and that is knocking our futures down 3% but that's only back to where they were before that idiotic spike into the close (where we sold into the excitement). The goal of this WELL-PLANNED BS is to scare the retailers who caught a ride yesterday and keep them out of the down 2% open (and get the bears to place bets to be squeezed later) so Lloyd and the boys can flip the switch on the Bots and BUYBUYBUY. Once they are loaded up (probably the EU close but maybe sooner) they trash the Dollar and send the markets flying back up. Maybe they have some bullish announcements lined up in the form of upgrades or QE3 rumors but, whatever it is, it won't come until after they print a scary open to keep Mom and Pop too terrified to pull the trigger as the market pulls away from them. I know this sounds cynical but if I don't tell you it's going to happen before it happens, you won't believe how corrupt the system is when Dylan and I tell you, right?
PLEASE be careful out there.
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EPIC
restructure the US till our deficit is 500 billion a year thru taxes and cuts
.
plan that in 5 years our deficit will be 0 by moving shadow banking tax havens and industry home to TAX, manufacturing things that produce jobs and value added goods
.
stop what ever the asian/africa plan was on the best terms we can get in that same 5yr time frame... force israel to permanent borders and an end to colonization
.
good luck
Rastigan can yell and scream REPs and DEMs ...they both suck!...We gotta do somethin"...!!
Other than the fact that he finally recognizes that the US debt is untenable, he is a pissy little pencil neck....just like the rest of the spikes and dykes on MSNBC.
The answer is obvious....CUT FED SPENDING...feckin' DUH!
Not Soc Security...that is paid for. They have robbed the Soc Sec Fund for years. Feck you assswipes....do not toucvh a funded program. CUT elsewhere.
Here is a ghoods start....privatize every Fed Funded (and ultimately...they all are) public housing project in the US. Sell the apartments to the qualified owners for a reduced price, indeed...no money down and a 3 yr mortgage.
Brilliant idea...with amzing socuio -economic profits to be experienced. Oh wait a minute...all the corrupt black politicians will become irrevelant, the corrupt (largely white constrcution companies...will become largely irevalant...the Unions suppoprted by the corrupt politicians....become irrevalent.
National saving, annually.....at least $200 Billion/ per year. Figure it out...it's simple.
You need to watch the Shock Doctrine:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHrEH5G90wo
to see how it goes when they privatize everything.
I think if there were no private property, we wouldn't need to help people as much because they would have access to land that provides food, but with capitalism and industrialization, people are kept from having access to the land that would feed them and so require help if they cannot get by under the modern system.
Back in the nineties I used to buy into the notion that we should cut off social services. I was young and dumb. I hadn't thought it through like I have now with the realization that they have no way to feed themselves. It is illegal to exist without money in our system ... move along, don't be loitering here. I also had been giving everyone credit for being as good as me. I was young, strong, and had no kids. All these years later after I went into a coma at one time and have 3 small kids I realize that it can be a lot harder for people than I realized then. Additionally I have now owned a mobile home park and an RV park, so I have personally seen the lower levels of society up close, and yes they are not in the same shape as I was when I was young. I do see how they would have a hard time supporting themselves in our modern society with a high unemployment rate.
The banksters are robbing from all the people, and we need to fix that. Maybe then, when things are not so artificially scarce because of our monetary system, people will quit being so cut-throat and greedy.
AMERICA IS BEING EXTRACTED BY MANBEARPIG!!!! MANBEARPIG IS EXTRACTING US!!!
It's just "Dog Eat Dog" and "Sin City" mixed together...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8PYCMqYwE7k
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0So0TyOvgJg
dog eat dog was on the mix tape i made for the soundtrack of my junior year wrestling campaign -- didn't win state...still, i hurt some people; so it wasn't a total loss. most of that mixtape, played on a walkman (remember when batteries would die out and the song would sag?), was constituted of ac/dc, metallica, rolling stones and of course beastie boys. i would get so gaunt and thin that my skin would grey and my ribs were countable...it's a mean, brutal sport for soulless animals who understand the need to dominate, and feed the appetites domination magnify...ah, the lessons we teach our athletic youth. my son won third in regionals this year...he's an Alpha in the making -- first born, got the blessin.
anyway, here's another sin city -- maybe you're cultured enough to appreciate it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RCqxq6xqoXI
this ole town's filled with sin/
it'll swallow you in/
if you've got some money to burn/
take it home, right away/
cause you got three years to pay/
and satan is waiting his turn.../
on your thirty first floor/
your gold plated door/
won't keep out the Lord's buring rain,
Janus
Hey Janus Erectus,
Nice avatar! haha
Wifey is (and now our children are) also huge Beastie fans...
(I saw the Beasties with Run DMC live back in the last century - terrific show - positive vibes - no fights - true brotherhood. Can't believe how long the Beasties have been at it - almost 30 years!).
Always have been a huge fan of the FBB...and love the video.
Thanks for your comments - with the S***storm heading our way, I respectfully wish you and yours Good Luck and God Bless - we're all gonna need it!
:)
Hands-down great article.
thnx
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/1500-millionaires-pay-income-tax/story?id=14242254
Almost 1,500 Millionaires Do Not Pay Income Tax
By AMY BINGHAM Aug. 6, 2011
At a time when America is borrowing about 40 cents of every dollar it spends because tax revenues cannot keep up with government spending, hundreds of America's wealthiest households are paying no income tax at all.
i like him and i agree; but democracy in this country is over -- from here out, every action this government takes will be entered as judgment against it. they are a fetid nest of termites, devouring the house and home of their hosts from the inside out. i appreciate the patriotism and all from dylan, and i feel a tingle of it every now and again; but the feeling is decidedly nostalgic -- i can't wrangle anything good as far as sentiment goes for these ole united states here of late; it's down right depressing.
somebody say 911...what?
and all you big-britches 'journalists', or should i say socialites, or should i say gadabouts, or should i say slimy-sychophants to the same swine-fuckers you should be puttin the screws to. somebody say christopher hitchens...what? call me names, you fucking smeegle lookin sick-ward reject (yeah, hurts don't it?...i'm a "truther" and you've got a spot of cancer, jealous much? what?). i don't wish your death, hitch...we go way back after all. but maybe you best stick to reviewing WWI era european writers...you've tangled yourself in affairs you don't understand. you've cluttered your odly-shaped bean with a jumbalya of images and distorted facts. you've made no agrument, moral or rational, that cannot be dissolved by the oh-so-simple whisper of peace. one of your contry men suggested we give it a chance. perhaps we should draft those lovely daughters of yours as soon as we get the chance...i don't even want to tell you how cute lil military girls end up -- they can never, ever bring their eyes to meet daddy's again...at least not in the same dewy-doughy way. ah, hitch, maybe i'll acidentially bump into them their freshman year at college; sort of be a stong shoulder on that night they've had a lil too much; maybe baptize em by eros; maybe make em call me daddy. you can call me janus, you metastisized and withered disease. oh, buck up, hitch; tomorrow's a new chemo-laden day!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mudTIboIYGI
mene mene tekle upharsin,
janus
mene mene tekle upharsin >>> indeed.
good man.
Bible readers are rarer and rarer these days...the way i reckon, it's the investor's bible -- and there is wisdom.
if you're adventurous enough, go and reread the setting in which these cryptic words appear on the wall...it's unbelieveably prescient and spooky and apropos our times; if there is anything in scripture that is apropos our time it is the setting in babylon in Daniel.
invisible hand indeed...everybody could see it!
Has Dylan contacted anyone in Congress to re-instate Glass-Steagall? Phil Gramm who now works at a bank? Boehner? McConnell? Didn't think so.
"It doesn't matter which party is elected" but we need to know Barack is on vacation? I want to have Dylan tell us if the bank lobby jackasses are still five per every member of Congress? Is Dylan doing something about it? Thought not.
He's been bluntly confronting Senators and Representatives with just those kinds of questions for years, pointedly demanding that they tell him what they're going to do about it. It's hard to believe they keep coming on his show, knowing what they'll face.
His job is to put the real issues out before the public. And he's the only corporate media person doing it, pure and simple.
my take on Dylan is he's doing a far better job than 99% of the MSM "journalists". he IS a breath of fresh angry air. his job is to get the message out to the masses who are screwed at every turn and he gets the job done.
why does Dylan have to be the one to tell the "alleged leaders" what to do? i fail to see where it's his job or responsibility, although i will say he COULD do such. Dylan and Judge Napalito (sp?) are some of the ONLY journalists who i feel do their job properly, informing the sheeple that this is no way to run an economy or country.
Is Dylan doing something about it? His job is to go on national TV and tell people the truth. He did.
What are you doing about it? Besides whining, I mean?
truth? no, i heard nothing of the truth.. lots of maniacal mumbo jumbo about mathematical extraction...
Hey Santelli,
You've been served.
Not on the technical myopia of Dylan's rough details on repatriating dollars, but on his succinct articulation of what we HOPED Barrack Obama was going to (and still might) do.
Divisive politics is shit and your rant, to whit: Why don’t you put up a website to have people vote on the Internet as a referendum to see if we really want to subsidize the losers’ mortgages is even shittier!
The guy in the glasses is thinking "how the fuck do I get out of here without being noticed..."
I would have loved to have been in the room at CNBC when he, er, departed.
Ratigan struck a chord with this rant. Now I'm not sure if he's playing it up theatrically, but it appears that he's actually (strikingly) being sincere here. And the perceived sincerity of the rant combined with the truth spewing out of his mouth is very pleasing ... at least to me. The sentiment he conveys in this piece is the sentiment that I'm sure pervades the middle and lower classes of American society. We haven't seen any type of economic recovery from the 2007/2008 crash. Wages haven't increased (they've actually declined), unemployment hasn't decreased (it has, instead, increased ... rapidly) and interest rates on both checking and savings account have taken a nosedive. Not to mention the plights of the homeless and the sick. With the way things are going in the United States, we are collectively fucked. And the rage that Ratigan let's shine through in this rant is the rage that many Americans feel. It is the repressed anger which I know exists. It is the repressed anger which characterizes a beast lying in wait. The United States will reach a tipping point where people just won't take anymore BS. People will eventually boil over with anger, and at that point, politicians will have zero control. They will try to impliment policy. But policy will fail because no one will follow it. And at that point, the USA will cease to exist in the fashion it has existed for the past century and a half. At that point, we will have an actual reset. I can only hope it will be peaceful, but as these things tend to go ... I suspect it will not be.
low brow...dude.Wake up.
fully agree with you navy.
jobs? basically none, save a few temp ones.
banking reform from all the fraud? none.
end to expensive wars that kill our families and friends children? nope.
assistance to seniors who have trouble making ends meet after helping to build this country? no, lets threaten to cut their benefits.
"elected leaders" who do the right thing? no, there will none of that either.
end market manipulation? no, it's already a "free market" so we won't change anything.
i can go on, but you can clearly see my point.
for cripes sake i wrote my state AG to question why there was no prosecution of the peeps responsible for the fraudclosure crisis. do you know what his response was? i'll tell you - his answer was "we do not get involved in legal matters"
now, WTF kind of answer is that? huh? the top attorney of the state won't DO HIS FUCKING JOB? gee fuckin whiz ollie, i always thought attorneys handled legal matters! guess i had that wrong all these years!
yes, this is all fubar beyond recognition and i for one (and i'm sure many others agree with me) am fed up with it all and this complete and total bullshit has to cease because i am sick of the smell and the suffering!
your picture is far more intimidating on line. I can't imagine how i would come across on TV. I imagine half the city of New York would start to move "just because."
I've got some news for Phil. Not only isn't austerity growth, neither is most government spending (its just income transfer). I know this concept of transfer payment not being "production", though it is "gross", is difficult so here's how I explain it to children-easy enough for even Phil to understand. I ask them to take $10 (their own money of course) in $1 bills and put it in their left pocket. Then I ask them to take it out, I remove $1 or $2 and hand it back to them and have them put the remaining $8-9 in their right pocket. I then ask them if they feel richer or poorer. I then tell them this is what the government does and that the $1 they lost to me (the government) is just "friction" and they should feel fortunate they didn't lose more due to a lawsuit from that other parasitic class, lawyers. Then, they understand the main function of the modern social welfare state and typically want to avoid both politics and the law as a career. The same experiment can be used to illustrate the 'frictional" role of banks, interest, and inflation and why the FIRE economy also doesn't create wealth. When they want to know what does create wealth I ask them to clean their room or mow the lawn and I'll give them that $1 I stole earlier. So, they now understand what all Austrian economists know without reading Hayek or Mises: work, savings and technical innovation which increases human efficiency and lowers the entropy of the universe (what they did when they cleaned their room) produces wealth. Everything else is a Ponzi.
I have an even better lesson that my dad used on me. As a child, I would be ready to bite into a nice hunk of pie and my dad would come along out of nowhere and scoop up about 1/3 of what I was about to eat. While he did this he would say "government". I have had utter and complete disdain for every level of government ever since. With my son I do the same thing only I will do it incrementally, saying 'federal government", then "state government". By then he is running out of the room but he gets the message. I also tell him that he should thank me that as a governmental entity I did not take more and once more if he trys to hide any of the goods from me "he" is a thief and a tax cheat and an enemy of the state.
Also, before my son gets his weekly allowance he must read one of the amendents to the Bill of Rights outloud three times. He grunts and groans but he does it and he is learning. If we don't teach our kids who in the hell will! It sure won't be in public schools!
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez
With no tax revenue and massive borrowing from - who knows where since China is now walking away from the USD - the US gubbmunt will foreclose on itself.
And if smart enough, your son will suddenly realise that he'd rather have most of a moderately taxed pie rather than have no pie at all with a free serving of imperial collapse, roading collapse, school collapse, police collapse, social security collapse, defense collapse, medical drug collapse, employment collapse, food poverty collapse etc.
+10 excellent.
Awesome idea, I may use it with my boys.. Yours, Maverick
You, sir, are a champion! What a brilliant way to get the point across to your son! /nosarc
Since August 1st, to the current amounts as of pretty much what Yahoo Finance posted in the last 30 minutes:
Nikkei: - 9.3% (and I expect them to take a bath tonight)
Hang Seng: -12.7%
Straits Times: -12.25%
Dow 30: -11.64% (even with the PPT interventions yesterday)
NASDAQ: -13.25%
S&P 500: -12.9%
But the real mess has been in Europe:
FTSE: -13.29%
DAX: -19.28%
CAC 40: -16.3%
teddy roosevelt wasn't black. he was roosevelt. svelt. no black jew or latino president can shake the boat without starting a race war that will blow up his plans for change. i'm a proud jew ( in name and birth ) and i want a white PROTESTANT OLD male president. and if i had my druthers, he'd be ugly and not some tv age pretty boy.
jimmy williams IS a lobbyist for icahn associates and a vociferous democrat. so please, explain to me how this makes any sense?
truth maybe but carl icahn? maybe he's short financial? :)
If you watch regularly, you see that "jimmy" is there to speak to entrenched lobbying interests as a problem.
But then if you watch regularly, you see that all three "panel members" really are just place holders Ratigan uses to say what he thinks.
Phil, you are the best. Thanks again for sharing.
Way to go Dylan, but the banking elite own our President also, as well as our congress. But keep up the good work.
Sorry Dylan, your tantrum yesterday I see through.
Your "panel" consists of two bitches arguing that tired left/right along w/a garden gnome from MSNBC.
If you are so indignant about what's happening to America you'd quit your pathetic "job" and your hand in the perpetuation of the fraud that is our monetary system.
Dylan, either continue with your diatribe of yesteday until they fire your ass or look in the mirror daily as one who is helping to desrtoy this nation through what your "show"is. Nothing more than propaganda for the masses.
MSNBC Dylan? Seriously? I bet your handlers told you to pull that stunt, did'nt they?
You're pathetic and transparent.
Sad that where a guy works is more than sufficient grounds for so many at ZH to ignorantly write off a guy who is the only corporate media journalist--the ONLY one--who has been addressing everything Tyler Durden covers. Ratigan also has been doing it every day for years.
Writing off Ratigan because he's on MSNBC is mindless bigotry. Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face.
Brilliant James...No worries 'boput the well meaning low brows that don't get it...
/Your "panel" consists of two bitches arguing that tired left/right along w/a garden gnome from MSNBC./
brilliant!Hey, James - first of all, fuck off. Secondly, go climb back under your rock.
geez, where's the junk button or down arrow when you need it?
James, do you work for FOX? jus' wondering.
BTW, you spell quite poorly too.
Ratigan is a clearly a left-leaning kind of guy; but he really does know his finance stuff and he knows that if we don't stop the country's bleeding his kids' future is bleak. He's pissed of about that, and he isn't the only one.
He is one of the ONLY guys I've heard on the Left punch the fraudsters recently.
Let's not forget how this started: Bankers doing fraudulent mortgage deals. Dylan just reminded everyone of that.
KUDOS to Dylan on this one!!
Ratigan correctly identifies himself as a libertarian, I believe. All libertarians share core values with liberals. Compare Nader and Paul.
it's funny you say this, because i was hoping ron paul would run for the democratic nomination and challenge obama in the primaries. no joke.
amen fly. we ran out of road to kick the can down due to a lack of new infrastructure, yet our "elected leaders" pretend there is miles more of road to go.
i guess the "elected leaders" can't read well because they missed the sign that clearly stated : DEAD END.
i was in a hearing today in appeals court regarding my own fraudclosure case and it went as i expected - trying to scare me. LOLZ. nice try, but i'm too smart for that old trick.
weak. weak, weak weak.
Most stupid post I've seen in a long time. YOU, JAMES, are patheticly idiotic and transparently retarded.
Take some lame ...pain train...the boy James is 100% correct. Ain't stupid....you are...by your insipid post.