Will Tokyo Be Evacuated Due to Fukushima Radiation?

George Washington's picture

By WashingtonsBlog

Tokyo Radiation Exceeds Chernobyl In Some Places … Japanese Government and Experts Discuss Evacuation

As I noted last month, radiation in some parts of Tokyo is higher than in the Chernobyl exclusion zone.

Yesterday, Al Jazeera pointed out:

Experts estimate the radiation leaked from Fukushima nuclear plant will exceed that of Chernobyl.



The need to evacuate parts of the sprawling capital of 35 million may have once seemed an incredible prospect but some experts say the possibility can no longer be ignored.

Indeed, as Japan Times reports today, the Japanese government started discussing the potential need to evacuate Japan soon after the quake hit:

In the days immediately after the crisis began at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant, the government received a report saying 30 million residents in the Tokyo metropolitan area would have to be evacuated in a worst-case scenario, former Prime Minister Naoto Kan revealed in a recent interview.




“It was a crucial moment when I wasn’t sure whether Japan could continue to function as a state,” he said.


After the March 11 earthquake and tsunami crippled the plant, Kan instructed several entities to simulate a worst-case scenario. One of those assessments said everyone residing within 200 to 250 km of the plant — an zone that would encompass half to all of Tokyo and cut clear across Honshu to the Sea of Japan — would have to be evacuated.

Things Are Getting Worse – Not Better – In Japan

While this is a worst-case scenario, things are getting worse – rather than better – at Fukushima. See this, this, this and this.

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corvettekenny's picture

The amount of fuel in each reactor is not great enough to reach critical mass and cause an uncontrolled reaction, if memory serves.  But if the fuel from reactor #1 is already in the ground below the vessel, what happens when/if it contacts the other two globs of fuel attempting to melt through their containment vessels?  That might make the initial radiation leak look like a walk in the park..

pitz's picture

Good thing Japan has the SUKI (tm) RELIGION -- motherfucking RELIGION, The New World Religion (tm).

Fish Gone Bad's picture

People always seem surprised that radiation increases with time.  This is understandable considering everyone has some idea about radioactive decay.  As things decay, they split into other elements, that in turn get acted upon by various forms of radiation.  What starts out as uranium gets split and split and split into a lot of stuff, some of it quite radioactive.

TSA gropee's picture

It doesn't take long for someone with even a limited ability to think for themselves to eventually connect the dots with regards to Fukushima and its potential to contaminate large areas. And when governments around the world including our own, take the current crisis to change in our case, EPA Protective Action Guide (PAG) numbers to allow greater levels of exposure, wonder changes to concern and if you really have the ability to think beyond the superficial, then to outrage. Based on the backlog of radiation detectors across the manufacturers and the length of time it took to get mine, there are still a number of people who are still awake and aware of what is and is not being reported on. This crisis concerns us all, and it might be fortuitous to pool and compile local detection numbers. I'll err on the side of caution with regards to radiation anyday.  

www.naturalnews.com/031963_radiation_exposure.html                             www.nuc.berkeley.edu/node/2162                                       http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/parents-fight-back-over-raised-radiation-limits-2277713.html

J C Bider's picture

9/11/2001 EPA "The air around ground zero is safe to breathe".

9/11/2011 Now those men who went to the rescue are dieing of cancer and at least 1,000 are sick and likely to die.

You can't fool Mother Nature.  When you poison your own nest you die.  Sweet words and lies will not save you from your self abuse.

In Nature when a species has over run its environment, first disease comes to thin the herd.  Then the environment collapses and Nature starts over with a less destructive model.


tempo's picture

How can France continue to build dozens of nuclear power plants w/o a peep from the world community??

nah's picture

GW we will never find out how bad it can get

Winston Smith 2009's picture

Nothing other than citizen paranoia to see in that AJ video.  And nothing but unsubstantiated claims in the Green Party member Prof. Busby videos.  No documentation from Busby in his RT interview, just claims of contaminated vehicle air filters in Tokyo.  Where had those vehicles been?  He doesn't even specify that it was known for certain that they've never left Tokyo.

I can believe in the contamination of food stuffs in Japan because that has been properly documented and is a typical problem with fallout contamination, but hazardous whole body radiation levels from surfaces in Tokyo will have to be shown in hard documentation before I buy that.  And it hasn't been, just claims from a Green Party Prof.

When I see Geiger counts from mapped locations in Tokyo, preferably on video, I'll begin to believe that there is some kind of significant threat IN THOSE PARTICULAR LOCATIONS.  Until then, this is just typical public hysteria, more prevalent in Japan because of the nuclear bombing of their country in WWII.

flattrader's picture

...When I see Geiger counts from mapped locations in Tokyo, preferably on video, I'll begin to believe...

blah, blah, blah...

Have you wondered why you aren't seeing "official" radiation reports of the kind you "demand" as proof of severe contanmination?

Is it because the Jap Gov preferes not to test or release the results?

[The Jap Gov has recently discussed banning citizen testing/readings.]

And as far as the "hot" particles being pulled out of Tokyo air filters and your querry as to where the vehicles have been, be advised that "hot" particles have been detected in car air filters on the US West Coast...and no, they haven't been driven to Japan and back

Here's one guy in the US I follow.


I get more info out of him than I do from my city, state or fed governments.

So, you just wait for "official" results...In fact, I think you should move to Japan and wait for them.

StrangerThanFiction's picture

For those interested in the events at Fukushima and nuclear energy issues in general.


Killtruck's picture

Japan? That thing is still around?

Seriously, how much longer until Godzilla marches his ass out of the ocean and starts monkeystomping Tokyo?

disabledvet's picture

I love it how they blame "paranoid people." HAHAHAHAHAHA. "Don't worry" says the government "that's not REALLY radioactivity that's killing you!" They really would be better off if they said "radiation is in fact...GOOD FOR YOU!" like we did back in the 50's. Just like America says "the internet is good for you!" today!

flattrader's picture

They are stilling trying to sell hormesis as a good thing.

Not so much for little kids in Japan now suffering from nosebleed and diarrhea.  There a rumors of hair loss.

That makes 2 or 3 of the 8 symptoms of radiation sickness.

I'm surprised it took this long, but they were initially luck in that the winds carried much of the radiation west over the Pacific.

PulauHantu29's picture

Kids eating contaminated meat for over three months now over in Japan BBC reported the other day. The government does not know how to handle it since they say the cattle ranchers have to survive and sell their meat...the farmers say the same thing even though the sutff glows in the dark.

Tough situation but what cancer rates will Japanese children have now? Up until now, Japan had one of the longest life spans for its people. Sad stuff.

Mr.Sono's picture

i wish all the best for Japan people. they are what humanity should be when you compare Katrina in States and Fukushima in Japan.

ZackAttack's picture

Denninger's gone awfully silent on Fukushima since his pollyannish posts from late March.

High Plains Drifter's picture

so has cramer. but wait. all of the discussion about fukushima was just tin foil hat conspiracy theory wasn't it?  even though we call all read and analyze the situation. even though many of us have common sense and can reason. i asked when this thing first started .  i say again. is this the end of japan?  and if it is and the island becomes uninhabitable then  where are these people going to move?  if they don't get a handle on that mess at fukushima pretty fast, it will only get worse. the problem is that nobody can work there for any length of time or its a death sentence. kind of puts a crimp on possible ways for humans to try and fix this mess, no?  when the core got outside the buildings on those plants, the situation got totally out of control and who really knows what they can do to fix this. those cores are reacting now and will continue to do so forever as far as we are concerned. the ground water is poisoned now.  the oceans are being poisioned. the situation is dire to say the least. they had some guy in st louis on youtube that is measuring nuclear fallout in st louis and he is picking up higher readings , as of last week for crying out loud and they are not sure where this is coming from. but i tell you, fukushima will be in all of us if it is not already.fukushima is not just a japanese problem. it is the problem of the world.  in a weird sort of way, it is the japanese sampson option more or less in a way. the japanese have always wanted revenge for the united states dropping atomic bombs on them. now they get that revenge even though they die as well. 

IH10's picture

I have no doubt that we will all get some of this, as we did with Chernobyl, however, this is and will remain primarily a Japanese problem.  Many of these Japanese are already slated for death and those poor mothers are going to be giving birth to Godzillas.  My only hope is this creates a wake up call for America and the rest of the Northern Hemisphere, that if we don't stop trying to harness the power of the Sun on a unstable planet it will lead to the end of all of us.  That's a tall order when this planet doesn't have enough safe energy to sustain 7B people, so maybe this is just one of the ways Mother Earth gets human population down to a sustainable level.  You can't help feeling like something bigger is playing out here. 

DizzyFish's picture

If you go to Google, Images and type in 'chernobyl babies' you'll find a catalogue of horrors. Children and their families living with such deformities that it must be the ultimate struggle to carry on. I can't see what great difference there will be over time in the human defects that manifest for those living in Japan.

A BBC news article http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-14572768 recently regarded non-reporting as 'self-restraint'. The report stated

"The press side didn't want the public to know they were co-operating with the government in a kind of voluntary self-censorship.

"The government, likewise, was very sensitive not to be seen to be censoring the press."

The topics not reported upon were

  • Military Operations, Plans & Capabilities
  • Nuclear and Non-Nuclear Weapons and Equipment (whatever that entails) 
  • Ciphers and Secure Communications
  • Sensitive Installations and Home Addresses
  • United Kingdom Security & Intelligence Special Services

I just ask myself, Why? This does not make me proud to be British. We are forced to pay a licence fee for this fucking cover up, even if we have no TV and only use a computer to access the web. I don't suppose the Brits are the only ones at it though. The vast majority of people I meet are great, and enrich my life. It's such a pity that these turds float.

NEOSERF's picture

Hourly Tokyo radiation readings...have been watching for a while and is stable...




Miss Expectations's picture

I don't know what to make of this...but it does explain why Germany shut down its nuclear facilities:

Theory of fukushima


Gully Foyle's picture

Hey GW, would it be possible for you to do a weekly/monthly roundup about suspected Fukushima radiation in the US/Canada?

I just read about high levels in St Louis rainwater.

I know there are many more of these measurements happening, just hard to come by.

Thank You

Cant see me's picture

Hey Gully

  You have a link to the St. louis rain water article?


Gully Foyle's picture

Cant see me


Report: St. Louis rainwater shows radiation dose at 13.3 microsieverts per hour — 130+ times background (VIDEO)


flattrader's picture

This is the webisite for the St. Louis guy.




dcb's picture

notice how that islanic propaganda papaer (joke) reports the things we don't like to hear in the US. it may be bad for our nuclear power industry so we don't hear it.

hardcleareye's picture

I have no "warm regard" for the islamic "culture". 

However, in the current climate, I find that Al Jazeera's reprorting accuracy and professionalism exceeds most US papers.  (It pains me to admit that!) 

Al Jazeera's reporting style has changed in the last 5 years or so.

falak pema's picture

Just when O'bammy and the nuclear lobby in USA says the future of USA is in MUCH MORE NUCLEAR!

GoldbugVariation's picture

This blog article is alarmist and very selective in the information.  Yes, there have been very large radioactive material leaks from Fukushima 1, and the Japanese government covered up the scale of the problem massively in the early days and weeks, and it is a long term issue which is not going to be fixed any time soon.  But ...

(A)  the huge leaks of radioactive materials have mostly been into the ocean, or into atmosphere and by now widely disbursed globally (especially West Coast USA/Canada).

(B)  the team of engineers working on Fukushima genuinely has improved the condition of the plant and made it safer, the conditions are not deteriorating, and in particular since July / August (various dates for the different reactors) the coolant is now re-circulated fresh water (meaning, not corrosive seawater, and not pumping water in which then leaks out into the ground or back into the sea).  There have been no more fires or explosions for the past several months.

The probability of Tokyo being evacuated in future due to this is, I would estimate, nil.



HedgeCock's picture

Am alarmed instead at your lack of reasoning.  They don't know where the basement corium blobs have gone to and what the blobs are doing--which is a rather terrifying worst case scenario as far as a nuclear accident goes. 

TSA gropee's picture

So that rather large hydrogen explosion sent no or neglible amounts of radiation into the atmosphere?

Right. So seriously, we want what you're on.

Jeff Spicoli's picture

Hey dude, we need to party!  I want some of what you're smoking!!


Ruffcut's picture

The engineers have improved the conditions? What a fucking moron.

Financial engineers have improved the conditions and defied basic math in the world economies,too?

It is the largest and a massive short play of human half-life, of the northern hemisphere.  Those engineers couldn't design a plug for their own asshole.  THe whole NRC should be hung by their toes along with the bankers.

dcb's picture

I would estimate the chance is almost nil myself, but that doesnt mean in any way shape or form that it isn't the riht thing to do. With the history of cover up by both the industry and government I have little doubts that in order to both save face, power, and money (for themselves) the Japanese government would sacrifice the health of millions (not that we'd do any differently and do so often)

Gmpx's picture

The situation is very simple for anyone who has physics education. There are 3 to 6 highly radioactive blobs under the grond which will keep spewing radioactive contamination into the air, water and ground for hundreds of years. Fukushima heroes (this is no Hollywood movie) lack magical power to take the situation under control. The fact that there is mainly invisible vapour, not black smoke, coming out does not make it less dangerous. Sorry, no dramatic effects like explosions, just slow but sure contamination of everything around...

Gully Foyle's picture


I'm sure this adds to the fun


Radioactive sewage sludge sold as cement, radioactive teas sold unchecked. Now radioactive debris in the middle section of Fukushima Prefecture to be burned and buried like normal debris, because the radiation level is “low”, according to the Ministry of Environment.

The Ministry of Environment has just given an OK sign to 10 towns and villages in the middle section of Fukushima Prefecture called “Naka-dori” region to burn, bury, or recycle the debris from the disaster (earthquake/tsunami) contaminated with radioactive materials, because the air radiation levels in these cities and villages were less than that of the city in the “Aizu” region (western third of Fukushima) with the highest level of air radiation.

Zgangsta's picture

Right now, Japan is pushing Fukushima meat, rice, and vegetables upon its citizens. And you think they'd actually evacuate Tokyo!? NFW!

scrappykoala's picture

Where are the factories? How does this affect global markets? I feel for the Japanese this is horrible and they should rebel but right now as an investor I want to know how this could affect economic output of Japan and how that plays out.

Sorry I have real money on this. Does anyone know?

DymanicDoug's picture

For Sale   Radiological Survey Meter  mod/  cd v-700..................$5,500

current 2008 calibration......

the russians know whats happening...   where do you think ToyKo is moving to ?

GW you are going to hell you fear mongoring somabitch


onthesquare's picture

If the government says its ok then it must be ok

Smiddywesson's picture

Damn straight.  We have the greatest minds from academia working on it, including some nobel lauriets.  Krugmann even says its good for the Japanese because it will stimulate their economy and lead to less deaths from homelessness, crime, and poverty than will be lost on balance to radiation.  Smart guy, that Krugman, to see the long range economic forest rather than to focus on the trees like we mere mortals.

Thanks GW

Stormdancer's picture

Women who were in their first trimester on March 11th begin giviing birth any day now.  The first deformed babies will be showing up pretty soon.  It will be denied that there is any connection with radiation...for a little while.


63,000 Bq/Kg of Radioactive Cesium from Rooftop of Apartment Bldg in Yokohama City

It made the national news ONE MONTH AFTER a private citizen measured the air radiation level on his own and had the dirt tested with his own money.

According to TV Asahi's "Morning Bird" news variety show on September 19, 63,000 becquerels/kg of radioactive cesium was detected from the dirt sediment on the rooftop of a 5-story apartment building in Kohoku-ku in Yokohama City. It is the same Kohoku-ku where 42,000 becquerels/kg of radioactive cesium was found near the side drain on the road.

Reptil's picture

That's right; there's hotspots all over Tokyo, it was in the plume, of what is now is believed a recritical in the spent fuel pool(s). They're having families (with children present) clean up the radioactive sludge, without protection, like it's ordinairy dust. What I'm afraid of, is that mothers are just going to dispose of these babies in secret. Without having support or help of japanese society (babies like that are a shame on the family) that is the most likely thing to happen.

Prof. Christopher Busby is arguing that a quarter of any contaminated child's heart muscle tissue will be irraperably damaged:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4Kkuo-IK-A A percentage of the japanese children that are not evacuated will die. This effect will be much faster than the thyroïd cancer and leukemia.

No one will report it, no headlines in any media, there'll just be... no more children. JUST like in Belarus. The parallel is eerie.

And meanwhile the nuclear industry's pundits, and the heroes of battleling unfouded rumours and conspiracy talk are going to continue spewing their verbal diarrhea.
However, more and more are waking up, and seeing the dark cloud of the media blackout that prohibits the real story to be told. This is in effect in France, the Netherlands and the USA as well. (logical, given the need to keep the population there ignorant to the continuation of these nuclear practices - in 2015 they plan Experimental MOX reactor 5x the size of the present nuclear plant - using 45 milj. euro of taxpayer money (to start with) - to be built by Areva - in the dutch river delta's (Borssele2)) Given the democratic descision to NOT engage in new nuclear energie of the fission type (Brede Maatschappelijke Discussie) this would mean civil war, since there's no where to run from this.

It's us (any citizens) or them (the nucear industry) now. Anyone ignoring that, is in denail. The nuclear dream died with Chernobyl.

flattrader's picture

It will be much harder to hide the incidence of Down's Syndrome, chromosonal abnormalities, neural tube defects etc.. in Japan, than it was to hide birth defect numbers post-Chernobyl.  Info leaking out via the internet will be hard to stifle...though the Jap Gov will blame everything else BUT the radiation.

Gully Foyle's picture

"What I'm afraid of, is that mothers are just going to dispose of these babies in secret."

My greatest fear is those children will thrive and become mutant genuises who threaten the world. Probably via Economics.

Not A Pundit's picture

Relocate the 30 Million to the Chinese Ghost Cities?   HHmmm.....

Jeff Spicoli's picture

Ohhh wow man .. What about all that cool  stuff they got?  You know .. steel plants .. uuhhh .... car factories .. Play Station .. and that stuff?  They gonna take it with them like those people from .. uhhh .. you know .. ahhhh .. where it snows all the fucking time and it's cold as a dead witches titty ... uhhh .. you know  where the Germans came and tried to burn everything?  You KNOW!!  That place with all the bitchin babes!!!  The Japanese gonna take their babes with them too?  Ohh wow man .. like endless Toyota's moving west eh? 


More bridges need building duuuude,  someone tell that Kegman duuude it's time to PARTY!!!

Whoooot - someone bring the cups man

Are you kidding's picture

Almost as if the Chinese KNEW what would happen...

What a fucking disgrace to the Japanese and a great coup for China...to "house" all those Japanese in their time of need...going by their past history.

tim73's picture

GW is typical American idiot spewing crap. Fucking greenpeace scum.