This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Zero Hour Here - JPM
JP Morgan makes a great comment in their 2012 European Outlook:
"Price of “safety” is too high within equities, in our view, exceeding ’08/’09 worst levels. We find almost everybody hiding in “Quality” and “Defensive Growth”."
So - while it is not a unique viewpoint it is pleasant to hear those style drifters - hiding out in defensives - being called out. The highlight of the note is yet another reminder that we have reached zero hour (ahead of schedule) in the US.
US GDP growth will drop as stimulus expires and new measures will have little impact.
- advertisements -
*post deleted
sorry to keep repeating but does anyone else other than Crghill wonder why we keep paying attention to bank reports? Am I missing something here? Its the game within the game...one part of the bank writes a meaningful article and it mostly makes sense, and another part of the bank marches down the hall and asks him what the fuck he was thinking (usually a guy higher up in the food chain) and toe the line or piss off. I keep using the example of General Motors....they ran themselves into the ground fair and square. Imagine weekly reports from GM research on everything under the sun concerning the automotvie industry! It would be the laughing stock of research, making commentary on the economy, management, inventory numbers and most hilarious the odd downgrade of the competetion. Think about it.
So now I guess the Market is whatever the govt says it is. Why have JPM or GS making statements about this or that......the worst possible news, potentially crushing news is no problem since the worse it is, or the worse the Implications are, the more the govt will buy everything in sight. In the pit, you wait patiently for someone dumb enough to try and buy everything in sight. At some point, the buying stops and the majority of the pit is short....Hmmm. I realize my example is empty and clinging to the flawed assumption that a mechanism exists to continually find equilibrium, whereever that may be.
And the market swoons into the green. Except for gold that is.
what's gonna happen in 2012 to cause that spike?
Increases in Food Stamp processing revenue.
This article seems to be missing a couple of charts, namely the impact of fiscal policy on JP Morgan and conversely the impact of JP Morgan on US real GDP growth.
Since when is the Morgue in the truth telling business?
They tell you just enough truth so most people believe them to be incompetent or insightful. Case depending. If they lied all the time, then you'd know. I think they're partly telling the truth this time. Smart people have moved their assets into limited selection of investments, and those investments in their opinion are overvalued. The economy is doomed, but not because of their nonsense statement, but because they're sabotaging the economy.