LATEST MARKET OUTLOOK
Fri, 09/25/2009 - 06:41
MARKET OUTLOOK USING TECHNICAL ANALYSIS.
Fri, 09/25/2009 - 07:33
#2
USDCAD:
Daily chart - bullish / neutral
Weekly chart - bearish
Monthly chart - bullish
Fri, 10/09/2009 - 11:58
#3
DOW / SP500:
Daily trend - ongoing topping action is now bearish / neutral
Weekly trend - neutral / bullish
Monthly trend - bearish (since early 2008)
VIX INDEX:
Daily trend - ongoing bullish divergence is now bullish (ie bearish for stocks)
Weekly trend - bearish / neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
CRUDE OIL:
Daily trend - ongoing topping action is now bearish
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral / bearish
COPPER:
Daily trend - ongoing topping action is now bearish
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
USD INDEX:
Daily trend - neutral / bullish
Weekly trend - bearish.
Monthly trend - still giving *bullish* signals
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX:
Daily trend - bearish
Weekly trend - bearish / neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
USDCAD:
Daily trend - bearish / neutral
Weekly trend - bearish
Monthly trend - still giving bullish signals
Mon, 10/05/2009 - 07:29
#4
- Supercycle,
- like this you post your opinion. To get any discussion you should back your view with facts, be that a link to a chart, observations on market action, fundamental developments...whatever supports your view.
Thu, 10/08/2009 - 23:07
#5
Gunther,
You are very kind. Looks like something is being sold. I am surprised this is even here. Just don't get it.
Fri, 10/09/2009 - 23:22
#8
DOW / SP500:
Intra day trend - choppy
Daily trend - bullish / neutral ( the daily trend is still up but overextended )
Weekly trend - neutral / bullish
Monthly trend - bearish (since early 2008)
COPPER: (an excellent economic barometer)
Daily trend - ongoing topping action is now bearish
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
VIX INDEX:
Daily trend - ongoing bullish divergence (ie bearish for stocks)
Weekly trend - bearish / neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
I warned of an impending stockmarket crash back in early *2007*
crinia [at] gmail.com
Thu, 10/15/2009 - 06:55
#9
GBPUSD:
Daily - neutral
Weekly - neutral
Monthly - neutral
DOW / SP500:
Daily trend - bullish / neutral
Weekly trend - bullish / neutral
Monthly trend - bearish (since early 2008)
Thu, 10/15/2009 - 07:29
#10
thank you for this Grand Supercycle. Good info.
Fri, 10/16/2009 - 00:01
#11
CRUDE OIL
Daily trend - bullish / neutral
Weekly trend - bullish / neutral
Monthly trend - neutral / bearish
GLOBAL TRENDS REMAIN OUT OF SYNC WITH EACH OTHER.
CONFLICTING TREND CYCLES RESULT IN CHOPPY MARKETS.
Tue, 10/20/2009 - 09:47
#12
DOW / SP500
Daily trend - neutral / bearish
Weekly trend - bullish / neutral
Monthly trend - bearish (since early 2008)
USDCAD
Daily trend - neutral / bullish
Weekly trend - bearish
Monthly trend - still giving bullish signals
USD INDEX
Daily trend - neutral / bullish
Weekly trend - bearish
Monthly trend - still giving *bullish* signals
Wed, 10/21/2009 - 05:46
#13
CRUDE OIL
Daily trend - neutral / bearish
Weekly trend - bullish / neutral
Monthly trend - neutral / bearish
Sat, 10/24/2009 - 21:16
#14
DOW / SP500
Daily trend - neutral / bearish
Weekly trend - neutral / bullish
Monthly trend - bearish (since early 2008)
GBPUSD
Daily trend - bearish / neutral
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
US DOLLAR
bullish warnings continue.
CRUDE
Daily trend - bearish / neutral
Weekly trend - bullish / neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
COPPER
Daily trend - bearish / neutral
Weekly trend - bullish
Monthly trend - neutral
GLOBAL TRENDS REMAIN OUT OF SYNC WITH EACH OTHER.
CONFLICTING TREND CYCLES RESULT IN CHOPPY MARKETS.
Tue, 10/27/2009 - 07:52
#15
DOW / SP500
Daily trend - bearish / neutral
Weekly trend - neutral / bullish
Monthly trend - bearish (since early 2008)
US DOLLAR
Daily trend - neutral / bullish
Weekly trend - bearish / neutral
Monthly trend - still giving bullish warnings
CRUDE
Daily trend - bearish / neutral
Weekly trend - bullish / neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
COPPER
Daily trend - bearish / neutral
Weekly trend - bullish
Monthly trend - neutral
USDCAD
Daily trend - bullish / neutral
Weekly trend - bearish / neutral
Monthly trend - still giving bullish warnings
GLOBAL TRENDS REMAIN OUT OF SYNC WITH EACH OTHER.
CONFLICTING TREND CYCLES RESULT IN CHOPPY MARKETS.
Fri, 10/30/2009 - 00:03
#16
The DOW and SP500 daily charts are giving some bearish warnings and the US Dollar and VIX index continue to show some bullish divergence.
DOW / SP500
Daily trend - bearish / neutral (some topping action)
Weekly trend - neutral / bullish
Monthly trend - bearish (since early 2008)
US DOLLAR INDEX
Daily trend - bullish / neutral
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral / bullish (bullish warnings continue)
CRUDE
Daily trend - bearish / neutral
Weekly trend - bullish / neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
COPPER
Daily trend - bearish / neutral
Weekly trend - bullish / neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
USDCAD
Daily trend - bullish / neutral
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral / bullish (bullish warnings continue)
VIX INDEX
Daily trend - bullish /neutral (bearish for stocks)
Weekly trend - neutral / bullish
Monthly trend - neutral
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX
Daily trend - bearish / neutral
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
Sat, 10/31/2009 - 22:01
#17
The bearish warnings for the DOW / SP500 daily chart were confirmed on Friday Oct 30.
At the same time, the USD and VIX index bullish warnings on the daily chart strengthened further.
Sun, 11/08/2009 - 02:14
#18
Bearish warnings for the DOW / SP500 daily chart continue.
Bullish warnings for the USD index, VIX index and USDCAD on the daily chart continue.
Wed, 11/11/2009 - 12:10
#19
SP500 / DOW bearish signals continue.
USD and VIX bullish warnings continue.
Sat, 11/14/2009 - 03:37
#20
I'm still expecting a significant USD rally when the bear market rally ends.
And the Dow bearish rising wedge lines on the daily chart are connverging.
Sat, 11/14/2009 - 13:16
#21
Significant => 5/10/20% appreciation? Im "betting" on such a (short term) reversal as well, long term the $ outlook is poor...
Tue, 11/17/2009 - 10:28
#22
Hard to see given our current credit/debt based monetary system.
We don't "print money" we issue credit/debt. AFAIKT, tight now there's 480 trillion in interest bearing paper out there (out of 1.44 quadrillion dollars of derivatives).
Under the current system, new debt would have to be issued at 0% and in the tens of trillions... AND it would have to CIRCULATE.
But it's not circulating, the banks are hoarding it because they know CRE is going to implode, and that the American people are liable to riot if they manage bailout v2.0.
So I see more deflation than inflation on the horizon.
Wed, 11/18/2009 - 23:38
#23
SP500 / DOW bearish signals continue.
USD index and VIX index bullish warnings continue.
I am still expecting a USD rally.
Fri, 11/20/2009 - 11:12
#24
UBSI "United Bancshares" rumored to increase its dividend on monday.
Fri, 11/20/2009 - 11:57
#25
No stock ramping here please.
btw United Bankshares is in a major downtrend.
Mon, 11/23/2009 - 15:21
#26
WASHINGTON & CHARLESTON, W.Va.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--United Bankshares, Inc. (NASDAQ: UBSI) today announced that its Board of Directors declared a fourth quarter dividend of $0.30 per share for shareholders of record as of December 11, 2009. Dividends per share of $1.17 for the year 2009 represents an increase over the $1.16 per share paid for the year of 2008.
Fri, 11/20/2009 - 13:58
#27
A comprehensive update will be posted this weekend.
Fri, 11/20/2009 - 20:14
#28
WTFIS. What are you selling? I don't understand.
I DO not believe in altrisium.
Sun, 11/22/2009 - 08:41
#29
DOW and SP500 bearish divergence on the daily charts continues.
USD and VIX index bullish divergence on the daily charts continues.
Keep in mind that trends with longer time frames have more overall influence over trends with smaller time frames.
Since early 2008 global trends have been out of sync and these conflicting trend cycles can result in choppy markets.
DOW / SP500
Daily trend - neutral / bearish (some topping action)
Weekly trend - neutral / bullish
Monthly trend - bearish (since early 2008)
US DOLLAR INDEX
Daily trend - bullish / neutral
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral / bullish (bullish warnings continue)
CRUDE
Daily trend - bearish / neutral
Weekly trend - bullish / neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
COPPER (the economic barometer)
Daily trend - neutral
Weekly trend - bullish / neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
VIX INDEX
Daily trend - neutral / bullish
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX
Daily trend - neutral / bullish
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
Tue, 11/24/2009 - 13:27
#30
What, no gold, silver and food? : D
Seriously though, they bear a look...
Also would appreciate some insight how you formulate your trends (no need to reveal any secret sauces, just an idea).
Thu, 11/26/2009 - 11:50
#31
The primary trend for equities remains down and we will make new lows according to my charts.
Technical analysis can also assist us as to the direction of the economy.
My USD indicator has been giving BULLISH warnings for some time and I'm still expecting a dollar rally.
My indicators can identify trend changes before they occur.
They warned me of an impending market crash back in early *2007*
The VIX index continues to give bullish warnings as well.
Fri, 12/04/2009 - 12:18
#32
An update will be posted this weekend.
Sat, 12/05/2009 - 18:43
#33
hello gs (i apologize for the incredibly derogatory connotation :) ). your analysis is greatly appreciated and i always pay close attention to your calls. a humble piece of constructive criticism: is there any way to reverse the order of your posts so they are sorted with the most recent posts at the top of the page? this would be consistent with the zh homepage and is easier to read, in my opinion. also, i am curious about your handle. is it inspired or influenced by anyone in particular? harry s. dent jr. would be my first guess. just curious...
Sun, 12/06/2009 - 03:04
#34
Hi,
My username refers to this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_supercycle
"is there any way to reverse the order of your posts so they are sorted with the most recent posts at the top of the page ?"
Yes that sounds like a great idea.
Sun, 12/06/2009 - 11:24
#35
now i feel silly for not googling your handle before asking about it. hehe... i'm familiar with the elliott wave theory, so i should have picked up on that as well. a lot of people criticize his work, but it is foolish to dismiss it completely. i thought of dent because i'm reading him now and he discusses cycles as well. he also holds elliott in high regard. thanks for the reply.
Mon, 12/07/2009 - 10:45
#36
I'm still expecting a US Dollar rally.
The USD bullish warnings issued some months ago continue and the daily chart now shows signs of a developing uptrend.
DOW / SP500 bearish warnings on the daily chart continue and the March 2009 bear market rally shows signs of weakness.
Keep in mind that trends with longer time frames have more influence over trends with smaller time frames.
Since early 2008 global trends have been out of sync and these conflicting trend cycles can result in choppy markets.
The stockmarket is a leading indicator of the direction of the economy.
It leads and the rest follows.
DOW / SP500
Daily trend - bearish / neutral (bearish topping action continues)
Weekly trend - neutral / bullish
Monthly trend - bearish (since early 2008)
US DOLLAR INDEX
Daily trend - bullish
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral / bullish (bullish warnings continue)
CRUDE
Daily trend - bearish
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
COPPER (the economic barometer)
Daily trend - bearish / neutral
Weekly trend - bullish / neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
VIX INDEX
Daily trend - bullish / neutral
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
U.S. TREASURY 10 YEAR
Daily trend - neutral / bullish
Weekly trend - bullish / neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX
Daily trend - neutral / bullish
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
Mon, 12/21/2009 - 11:59
#37
U.S. TREASURY 10 YEAR
Daily trend - neutral / bearish
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
The dollar rally I forecast, continues to trend up (although overbought now after it's big run.)
Daily charts of key equity indexes are still showing signs of breaking down.
Fri, 12/25/2009 - 17:51
#38
breaking down? As much as it dismays me, i do see that RUT DJTA SPX NDX etc are all breaking ut upward from 2 month bases. Yes there are signs of technical weakness and there have been for months, but the craziness continues none the less. I think you need to be a bit more open minded to the possibility that there really wont be a major correction in the near future, or even in the next year.
Fri, 12/25/2009 - 22:27
#39
As noted above: DOW / SP500 bearish warnings on the daily chart continue. Keep in mind that trends with longer time frames have more influence over trends with smaller time frames. The Weekly trend remains neutral to bullish: ie a mild uptrend. The rally will not end until the weekly chart turns down.
Tue, 12/22/2009 - 10:03
#40
U.S. TREASURY 10 YEAR
Daily trend - has just gone bearish
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
Thu, 12/31/2009 - 02:40
#41
USD intra day bearish signals continue and more retracement is possible but the trend on the daily chart remains up.
Thu, 12/31/2009 - 23:17
#42
USD intra day signals are now bullish.
The trend on the daily chart remains up.
Thu, 12/31/2009 - 23:22
#43
I warned of an impending stockmarket crash in early 2007.
I confirmed a bottom by April 2009.
I warned of an impending USD rally in July 2009.
DOW / SP500 bearish warnings on the daily chart continue and recent market action is bearish.
The weekly trend remains neutral to bullish: ie a mild uptrend.
When the weekly chart rolls over, we will have confirmation that the March 2009 bear market rally has finished.
Sat, 01/02/2010 - 20:08
#44
hello again, gs. is there any chance you could post annotated charts? your analysis would be more effective with supplemental and verifiable (as opposed to anecdotal) data, in my humble opinion. thanks!
Sun, 01/03/2010 - 00:14
#45
Ok, will see what I can do.
Sun, 01/03/2010 - 00:17
#46
COPPER (the economic barometer)
An extremely overbought chart.
The USD trend on the daily chart remains up and the weekly chart is now looking bullish.
I'm still expecting a substantial USD rally.
Sun, 01/03/2010 - 14:56
#47
I have been observing your play calling, in fact, I recently got out of my gold futures and moved into dollars at 75.5, which the trade is working nicely thanks to you. I am not a techinician, but absorbing the game being played, I think your right on with a continued dollar rally. So, I am long and strong the USD. However, I believe gold will provide another good trading opportunity. Pardon my ignorance, but is there a way from a technical standpoint to indicate if gold and the dollar can/will rally together or trade in tandem?
Thank you again.
Sun, 01/03/2010 - 15:04
#48
GS - This is my first email on ZH, I didnt see my email\to you posted so I am re-typing my question, I am not a technician.
Based on your comments and the way the market was trading I got out of my gold futures and bought US Dollars, which is working thanks to you. I believe your right that the Dollar will continue to rally. But I still believe the economics and purpose of gold, so I believe gold will provide another trading opportunity.
From a technical standpoint or if could be an indication that the USD and Gold could rally together/trade in parity?
Thank you again,
Wed, 01/06/2010 - 12:14
#49
The very choppy USD daily chart is giving some bearish warnings but the weekly chart remains bullish.
Therefore some USD downside is possible.
Wed, 01/06/2010 - 15:21
#50
Agree... TY.
Sat, 01/09/2010 - 03:06
#51
The very choppy USD Index daily chart is now neutral to bearish.
The weekly chart continues to give bullish warnings.
Mon, 01/11/2010 - 01:08
#52
DOW/SP500 daily chart continues to show signs of being overbought.
The weekly trend is bullish/neutral: ie a moderate uptrend.
Keep in mind that trends with longer time frames have more influence over trends with smaller time frames.
The bear market rally from March 2009 will not end until the weekly chart turns down.
The very choppy USD Index daily chart is now bearish but it's weekly chart continues to give bullish warnings.
Tue, 01/12/2010 - 03:15
#53
Choppy USD Index daily chart is now neutral and weekly chart continues to give bullish warnings.
Fri, 01/15/2010 - 05:12
#54
The choppy USD Index daily chart is still neutral and the weekly chart continues to give bullish warnings.
Vice-versa for the EURO.
DOW / SP500 daily chart remains over-extended and the correction is overdue.
Fri, 01/15/2010 - 11:01
#55
yesterday was the top. Alcoa, Intel, and JP Morgan all come out with results ranging from super to poor, and they all sell off.
thanks for your work, i've kept an eye on it over the past few months. i agree, the USD is headed much higher now. gold, oil, anti-dollar trades much lower.
Fri, 01/15/2010 - 11:01
#56
yesterday was the top. Alcoa, Intel, and JP Morgan all come out with results ranging from super to poor, and they all sell off.
thanks for your work, i've kept an eye on it over the past few months. i agree, the USD is headed much higher now. gold, oil, anti-dollar trades much lower.
Fri, 01/15/2010 - 13:41
#57
The included chart (I know its Yahoo, for illustration only) shows volume spike buying at what was to me undoubtedly a confirmation (among many others) that building a long USD position made great sense. USD up equities down going forward.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=UUP#chart2:symbol=uup;range=1y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=1;logscale=off;source=undefined
Fri, 01/15/2010 - 14:14
#58
The DOW / SP500 correction has started it seems.
More updates hopefully this weekend.
Tue, 01/19/2010 - 05:37
#59
Daily charts of key equity indexes are very bearish after being overextended for too long.
Is the March 2009 bear market rally ending ?
My ongoing USD bull and EURO bear warnings continue.
The USD weekly chart continues to give bullish warnings and vice versa for the EURO.
Wed, 01/20/2010 - 12:03
#60
My previous bearish warnings for stocks is now confirmed.
My previous USD bull and EURO bear warnings are also confirmed.
Wed, 01/20/2010 - 13:40
#61
Not so fast brother, stocks appear to rallying right at bottom of the range they have held for the last F---ing three weeks. Unbelievable.
Wed, 01/20/2010 - 23:37
#62
Patience...
Thu, 01/21/2010 - 00:35
#63
So, has your weekly reading for S&P finally turned bearish?
thanks
Thu, 01/21/2010 - 04:40
#64
DOW / SP500
Daily trend - now bearish after months of being overextended.
Weekly trend - neutral / bullish (ie a mild uptrend )
Monthly trend - bearish (since early 2008)
COPPER (the economic barometer)
Daily trend - neutral and over extended -showing signs of weakness.
Weekly trend - bullish / neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
When the above weekly charts give bear signals, the March 2009 bear market rally can be confirmed as over.
Sat, 01/23/2010 - 01:34
#65
Yes, if you can share your chart porn I'm sure many would love to see it.
Thu, 01/21/2010 - 00:58
#66
what chart are you looking at?
Tue, 01/26/2010 - 01:07
#67
DOW / SP500 daily charts remain in a downtrend , weeklies are in a weakening uptrend.
Tue, 01/26/2010 - 19:14
#68
Hi Grand Supercycle,
Do you see any possibility of Dow bouncing back to 10,300 before breaking down? Also,it would be great if you can share with us your charts?
Thanks for your views.
novice
Thu, 01/28/2010 - 01:15
#69
A counter trend rally started on Wed 27th: aka a dead cat bounce.
May last several days hopefully ?
The daily trend remains down and weekly trend is sideways atm.
I will look into posting charts.
Thu, 01/28/2010 - 10:56
#70
After only one day of the counter trend rally, it looks dodgy already.
Fri, 01/29/2010 - 02:47
#71
It's very choppy and indecisive, but the counter trend rally is showing some strength again.
The daily trend remains DOWN.
Fri, 01/29/2010 - 09:03
#72
Yes, the counter trend rally shows some strength.
Fri, 01/29/2010 - 13:03
#73
We had a good spike today but then the bearish daily downtrend exerted its influence once again.
Sat, 01/30/2010 - 01:51
#74
Previous bearish warnings for key equity indexes have been confirmed and the DOW / SP500 are in a downtrend on the daily chart.
The weekly charts of key equity indexes show increasing signs of weakness and when they also begin to trend down, the March 2009 bear
market rally can be confirmed as over.
Longer term monthly charts have remained bearish since early 2008.
As mentioned many times, I have been expecting a US Dollar rally for some time and bullish warnings issued several months ago still apply.
The USD index daily chart and now the weekly chart - continue to show strength and vice versa for the EURO.
Previous bullish warnings for the VIX index continue and the daily chart has recently started to trend up.
As mentioned, the COPPER daily chart has been overextended for some time and earlier bearish signals have resulted in a downtrend starting. The weekly chart uptrend now shows serious signs of weakness.
CRUDE OIL daily chart has been going sideways for some time and the daily uptrend has stalled. The weekly uptrend has been showing signs of weakness for months and when it rolls over, the crude rally can be
confirmed as finished.
Mon, 02/01/2010 - 11:12
#75
The DOW/SP500 counter trend rally is showing strength again, so a dead cat bounce is possible.
Tue, 02/02/2010 - 20:50
#76
The (temporary) counter trend rally continues and the daily trend remains down.
Wed, 02/03/2010 - 08:57
#77
The (temporary) counter trend rally is weakening and could be ending.
Thu, 02/04/2010 - 10:05
#78
The recent counter trend rally has finished.
The March 2009 bear market rally looks over.
DOW / SP500 downtrend on the daily chart continues.
More updates later.
Sun, 02/07/2010 - 03:36
#79
Daily chart of the DOW showing the bearish rising wedge it broke out of and next good support is shown around 9700.
It won't hold though.
Sun, 02/07/2010 - 13:27
#80
i agree. everyone closed out on friday just to avoid the EU bailing out Greece news tonight, and the short-term that will follow it. i'm hoping we get back to 1090-1100 so i can take more short positions.
that is what is has come to, we expect govt intervention so we don't hold short positions over the weekend. just stupid.
Mon, 02/08/2010 - 18:16
#81
I'm thinking ~9250 for at least a bounce...
I warned of an impending stockmarket crash in early 2007.
crinia [at] gmail.com
DOW / SP500:
Daily chart - ongoing topping action is now bearish / neutral
Weekly chart - neutral / bullish
Monthly chart - bearish
VIX INDEX:
Daily chart - ongoing bullish divergence is now bullish
Weekly chart - bearish / neutral
Monthly chart - neutral
CRUDE OIL:
Daily chart - ongoing topping action is now bearish.
Weekly chart - neutral.
Monthly chart - neutral.
COPPER:
Daily chart - ongoing topping action is now bearish.
Weekly chart - neutral.
Monthly chart - neutral.
USD INDEX:
Daily chart - neutral/bullish
Weekly chart - bearish.
Monthly chart - still *bullish*
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX:
Daily chart - still bearish
Weekly chart - neutral
Monthly chart - neutral