MARKET OUTLOOK # 2 - OLD THREAD NO LONGER IN USE.
Thu, 03/18/2010 - 09:44
MARKET OUTLOOK # 2 - OLD THREAD NO LONGER IN USE.
Sat, 02/13/2010 - 12:09
#2
"ongoing topping action is now bearish"
sounds like half time at a gay orgy
Fri, 09/25/2009 - 07:33
#3
USDCAD:
Daily chart - bullish / neutral
Weekly chart - bearish
Monthly chart - bullish
Fri, 10/09/2009 - 11:58
#4
DOW / SP500:
Daily trend - ongoing topping action is now bearish / neutral
Weekly trend - neutral / bullish
Monthly trend - bearish (since early 2008)
VIX INDEX:
Daily trend - ongoing bullish divergence is now bullish (ie bearish for stocks)
Weekly trend - bearish / neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
CRUDE OIL:
Daily trend - ongoing topping action is now bearish
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral / bearish
COPPER:
Daily trend - ongoing topping action is now bearish
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
USD INDEX:
Daily trend - neutral / bullish
Weekly trend - bearish.
Monthly trend - still giving *bullish* signals
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX:
Daily trend - bearish
Weekly trend - bearish / neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
USDCAD:
Daily trend - bearish / neutral
Weekly trend - bearish
Monthly trend - still giving bullish signals
Mon, 10/05/2009 - 07:29
#5
- Supercycle,
- like this you post your opinion. To get any discussion you should back your view with facts, be that a link to a chart, observations on market action, fundamental developments...whatever supports your view.
Thu, 10/08/2009 - 23:07
#6
Gunther,
You are very kind. Looks like something is being sold. I am surprised this is even here. Just don't get it.
Fri, 10/09/2009 - 23:22
#9
DOW / SP500:
Intra day trend - choppy
Daily trend - bullish / neutral ( the daily trend is still up but overextended )
Weekly trend - neutral / bullish
Monthly trend - bearish (since early 2008)
COPPER: (an excellent economic barometer)
Daily trend - ongoing topping action is now bearish
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
VIX INDEX:
Daily trend - ongoing bullish divergence (ie bearish for stocks)
Weekly trend - bearish / neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
I warned of an impending stockmarket crash back in early *2007*
crinia [at] gmail.com
Thu, 10/15/2009 - 06:55
#10
GBPUSD:
Daily - neutral
Weekly - neutral
Monthly - neutral
DOW / SP500:
Daily trend - bullish / neutral
Weekly trend - bullish / neutral
Monthly trend - bearish (since early 2008)
Thu, 10/15/2009 - 07:29
#11
thank you for this Grand Supercycle. Good info.
Fri, 10/16/2009 - 00:01
#12
CRUDE OIL
Daily trend - bullish / neutral
Weekly trend - bullish / neutral
Monthly trend - neutral / bearish
GLOBAL TRENDS REMAIN OUT OF SYNC WITH EACH OTHER.
CONFLICTING TREND CYCLES RESULT IN CHOPPY MARKETS.
Tue, 10/20/2009 - 09:47
#13
DOW / SP500
Daily trend - neutral / bearish
Weekly trend - bullish / neutral
Monthly trend - bearish (since early 2008)
USDCAD
Daily trend - neutral / bullish
Weekly trend - bearish
Monthly trend - still giving bullish signals
USD INDEX
Daily trend - neutral / bullish
Weekly trend - bearish
Monthly trend - still giving *bullish* signals
Wed, 10/21/2009 - 05:46
#14
CRUDE OIL
Daily trend - neutral / bearish
Weekly trend - bullish / neutral
Monthly trend - neutral / bearish
Sat, 10/24/2009 - 21:16
#15
DOW / SP500
Daily trend - neutral / bearish
Weekly trend - neutral / bullish
Monthly trend - bearish (since early 2008)
GBPUSD
Daily trend - bearish / neutral
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
US DOLLAR
bullish warnings continue.
CRUDE
Daily trend - bearish / neutral
Weekly trend - bullish / neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
COPPER
Daily trend - bearish / neutral
Weekly trend - bullish
Monthly trend - neutral
GLOBAL TRENDS REMAIN OUT OF SYNC WITH EACH OTHER.
CONFLICTING TREND CYCLES RESULT IN CHOPPY MARKETS.
Tue, 10/27/2009 - 07:52
#16
DOW / SP500
Daily trend - bearish / neutral
Weekly trend - neutral / bullish
Monthly trend - bearish (since early 2008)
US DOLLAR
Daily trend - neutral / bullish
Weekly trend - bearish / neutral
Monthly trend - still giving bullish warnings
CRUDE
Daily trend - bearish / neutral
Weekly trend - bullish / neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
COPPER
Daily trend - bearish / neutral
Weekly trend - bullish
Monthly trend - neutral
USDCAD
Daily trend - bullish / neutral
Weekly trend - bearish / neutral
Monthly trend - still giving bullish warnings
GLOBAL TRENDS REMAIN OUT OF SYNC WITH EACH OTHER.
CONFLICTING TREND CYCLES RESULT IN CHOPPY MARKETS.
Fri, 10/30/2009 - 00:03
#17
The DOW and SP500 daily charts are giving some bearish warnings and the US Dollar and VIX index continue to show some bullish divergence.
DOW / SP500
Daily trend - bearish / neutral (some topping action)
Weekly trend - neutral / bullish
Monthly trend - bearish (since early 2008)
US DOLLAR INDEX
Daily trend - bullish / neutral
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral / bullish (bullish warnings continue)
CRUDE
Daily trend - bearish / neutral
Weekly trend - bullish / neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
COPPER
Daily trend - bearish / neutral
Weekly trend - bullish / neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
USDCAD
Daily trend - bullish / neutral
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral / bullish (bullish warnings continue)
VIX INDEX
Daily trend - bullish /neutral (bearish for stocks)
Weekly trend - neutral / bullish
Monthly trend - neutral
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX
Daily trend - bearish / neutral
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
Sat, 10/31/2009 - 22:01
#18
The bearish warnings for the DOW / SP500 daily chart were confirmed on Friday Oct 30.
At the same time, the USD and VIX index bullish warnings on the daily chart strengthened further.
Sun, 11/08/2009 - 02:14
#19
Bearish warnings for the DOW / SP500 daily chart continue.
Bullish warnings for the USD index, VIX index and USDCAD on the daily chart continue.
Wed, 11/11/2009 - 12:10
#20
SP500 / DOW bearish signals continue.
USD and VIX bullish warnings continue.
Sat, 11/14/2009 - 03:37
#21
I'm still expecting a significant USD rally when the bear market rally ends.
And the Dow bearish rising wedge lines on the daily chart are connverging.
Sat, 11/14/2009 - 13:16
#22
Significant => 5/10/20% appreciation? Im "betting" on such a (short term) reversal as well, long term the $ outlook is poor...
Tue, 11/17/2009 - 10:28
#23
Hard to see given our current credit/debt based monetary system.
We don't "print money" we issue credit/debt. AFAIKT, tight now there's 480 trillion in interest bearing paper out there (out of 1.44 quadrillion dollars of derivatives).
Under the current system, new debt would have to be issued at 0% and in the tens of trillions... AND it would have to CIRCULATE.
But it's not circulating, the banks are hoarding it because they know CRE is going to implode, and that the American people are liable to riot if they manage bailout v2.0.
So I see more deflation than inflation on the horizon.
Wed, 11/18/2009 - 23:38
#24
SP500 / DOW bearish signals continue.
USD index and VIX index bullish warnings continue.
I am still expecting a USD rally.
Fri, 11/20/2009 - 11:12
#25
UBSI "United Bancshares" rumored to increase its dividend on monday.
Fri, 11/20/2009 - 11:57
#26
No stock ramping here please.
btw United Bankshares is in a major downtrend.
Mon, 11/23/2009 - 15:21
#27
WASHINGTON & CHARLESTON, W.Va.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--United Bankshares, Inc. (NASDAQ: UBSI) today announced that its Board of Directors declared a fourth quarter dividend of $0.30 per share for shareholders of record as of December 11, 2009. Dividends per share of $1.17 for the year 2009 represents an increase over the $1.16 per share paid for the year of 2008.
Fri, 11/20/2009 - 13:58
#28
A comprehensive update will be posted this weekend.
Fri, 11/20/2009 - 20:14
#29
WTFIS. What are you selling? I don't understand.
I DO not believe in altrisium.
Sun, 11/22/2009 - 08:41
#30
DOW and SP500 bearish divergence on the daily charts continues.
USD and VIX index bullish divergence on the daily charts continues.
Keep in mind that trends with longer time frames have more overall influence over trends with smaller time frames.
Since early 2008 global trends have been out of sync and these conflicting trend cycles can result in choppy markets.
DOW / SP500
Daily trend - neutral / bearish (some topping action)
Weekly trend - neutral / bullish
Monthly trend - bearish (since early 2008)
US DOLLAR INDEX
Daily trend - bullish / neutral
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral / bullish (bullish warnings continue)
CRUDE
Daily trend - bearish / neutral
Weekly trend - bullish / neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
COPPER (the economic barometer)
Daily trend - neutral
Weekly trend - bullish / neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
VIX INDEX
Daily trend - neutral / bullish
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX
Daily trend - neutral / bullish
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
Tue, 11/24/2009 - 13:27
#31
What, no gold, silver and food? : D
Seriously though, they bear a look...
Also would appreciate some insight how you formulate your trends (no need to reveal any secret sauces, just an idea).
Thu, 11/26/2009 - 11:50
#32
The primary trend for equities remains down and we will make new lows according to my charts.
Technical analysis can also assist us as to the direction of the economy.
My USD indicator has been giving BULLISH warnings for some time and I'm still expecting a dollar rally.
My indicators can identify trend changes before they occur.
They warned me of an impending market crash back in early *2007*
The VIX index continues to give bullish warnings as well.
Fri, 12/04/2009 - 12:18
#33
An update will be posted this weekend.
Sat, 12/05/2009 - 18:43
#34
hello gs (i apologize for the incredibly derogatory connotation :) ). your analysis is greatly appreciated and i always pay close attention to your calls. a humble piece of constructive criticism: is there any way to reverse the order of your posts so they are sorted with the most recent posts at the top of the page? this would be consistent with the zh homepage and is easier to read, in my opinion. also, i am curious about your handle. is it inspired or influenced by anyone in particular? harry s. dent jr. would be my first guess. just curious...
Sun, 12/06/2009 - 03:04
#35
Hi,
My username refers to this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_supercycle
"is there any way to reverse the order of your posts so they are sorted with the most recent posts at the top of the page ?"
Yes that sounds like a great idea.
Sun, 12/06/2009 - 11:24
#36
now i feel silly for not googling your handle before asking about it. hehe... i'm familiar with the elliott wave theory, so i should have picked up on that as well. a lot of people criticize his work, but it is foolish to dismiss it completely. i thought of dent because i'm reading him now and he discusses cycles as well. he also holds elliott in high regard. thanks for the reply.
Mon, 12/07/2009 - 10:45
#37
I'm still expecting a US Dollar rally.
The USD bullish warnings issued some months ago continue and the daily chart now shows signs of a developing uptrend.
DOW / SP500 bearish warnings on the daily chart continue and the March 2009 bear market rally shows signs of weakness.
Keep in mind that trends with longer time frames have more influence over trends with smaller time frames.
Since early 2008 global trends have been out of sync and these conflicting trend cycles can result in choppy markets.
The stockmarket is a leading indicator of the direction of the economy.
It leads and the rest follows.
DOW / SP500
Daily trend - bearish / neutral (bearish topping action continues)
Weekly trend - neutral / bullish
Monthly trend - bearish (since early 2008)
US DOLLAR INDEX
Daily trend - bullish
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral / bullish (bullish warnings continue)
CRUDE
Daily trend - bearish
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
COPPER (the economic barometer)
Daily trend - bearish / neutral
Weekly trend - bullish / neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
VIX INDEX
Daily trend - bullish / neutral
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
U.S. TREASURY 10 YEAR
Daily trend - neutral / bullish
Weekly trend - bullish / neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX
Daily trend - neutral / bullish
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
Mon, 12/21/2009 - 11:59
#38
U.S. TREASURY 10 YEAR
Daily trend - neutral / bearish
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
The dollar rally I forecast, continues to trend up (although overbought now after it's big run.)
Daily charts of key equity indexes are still showing signs of breaking down.
Fri, 12/25/2009 - 17:51
#39
breaking down? As much as it dismays me, i do see that RUT DJTA SPX NDX etc are all breaking ut upward from 2 month bases. Yes there are signs of technical weakness and there have been for months, but the craziness continues none the less. I think you need to be a bit more open minded to the possibility that there really wont be a major correction in the near future, or even in the next year.
Fri, 12/25/2009 - 22:27
#40
As noted above: DOW / SP500 bearish warnings on the daily chart continue. Keep in mind that trends with longer time frames have more influence over trends with smaller time frames. The Weekly trend remains neutral to bullish: ie a mild uptrend. The rally will not end until the weekly chart turns down.
Tue, 12/22/2009 - 10:03
#41
U.S. TREASURY 10 YEAR
Daily trend - has just gone bearish
Weekly trend - neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
Thu, 12/31/2009 - 02:40
#42
USD intra day bearish signals continue and more retracement is possible but the trend on the daily chart remains up.
Thu, 12/31/2009 - 23:17
#43
USD intra day signals are now bullish.
The trend on the daily chart remains up.
Thu, 12/31/2009 - 23:22
#44
I warned of an impending stockmarket crash in early 2007.
I confirmed a bottom by April 2009.
I warned of an impending USD rally in July 2009.
DOW / SP500 bearish warnings on the daily chart continue and recent market action is bearish.
The weekly trend remains neutral to bullish: ie a mild uptrend.
When the weekly chart rolls over, we will have confirmation that the March 2009 bear market rally has finished.
Sat, 01/02/2010 - 20:08
#45
hello again, gs. is there any chance you could post annotated charts? your analysis would be more effective with supplemental and verifiable (as opposed to anecdotal) data, in my humble opinion. thanks!
Sun, 01/03/2010 - 00:14
#46
Ok, will see what I can do.
Sat, 02/13/2010 - 19:38
#47
crash was not in 2007...
USD didnt rally in july 2009///
so whats ur point?
nxt week bounce in stocks (this is my point)
Sun, 01/03/2010 - 00:17
#48
COPPER (the economic barometer)
An extremely overbought chart.
The USD trend on the daily chart remains up and the weekly chart is now looking bullish.
I'm still expecting a substantial USD rally.
Sun, 01/03/2010 - 14:56
#49
I have been observing your play calling, in fact, I recently got out of my gold futures and moved into dollars at 75.5, which the trade is working nicely thanks to you. I am not a techinician, but absorbing the game being played, I think your right on with a continued dollar rally. So, I am long and strong the USD. However, I believe gold will provide another good trading opportunity. Pardon my ignorance, but is there a way from a technical standpoint to indicate if gold and the dollar can/will rally together or trade in tandem?
Thank you again.
Sun, 01/03/2010 - 15:04
#50
GS - This is my first email on ZH, I didnt see my email\to you posted so I am re-typing my question, I am not a technician.
Based on your comments and the way the market was trading I got out of my gold futures and bought US Dollars, which is working thanks to you. I believe your right that the Dollar will continue to rally. But I still believe the economics and purpose of gold, so I believe gold will provide another trading opportunity.
From a technical standpoint or if could be an indication that the USD and Gold could rally together/trade in parity?
Thank you again,
Wed, 01/06/2010 - 12:14
#51
The very choppy USD daily chart is giving some bearish warnings but the weekly chart remains bullish.
Therefore some USD downside is possible.
Wed, 01/06/2010 - 15:21
#52
Agree... TY.
Sat, 01/09/2010 - 03:06
#53
The very choppy USD Index daily chart is now neutral to bearish.
The weekly chart continues to give bullish warnings.
Mon, 01/11/2010 - 01:08
#54
DOW/SP500 daily chart continues to show signs of being overbought.
The weekly trend is bullish/neutral: ie a moderate uptrend.
Keep in mind that trends with longer time frames have more influence over trends with smaller time frames.
The bear market rally from March 2009 will not end until the weekly chart turns down.
The very choppy USD Index daily chart is now bearish but it's weekly chart continues to give bullish warnings.
Tue, 01/12/2010 - 03:15
#55
Choppy USD Index daily chart is now neutral and weekly chart continues to give bullish warnings.
Fri, 01/15/2010 - 05:12
#56
The choppy USD Index daily chart is still neutral and the weekly chart continues to give bullish warnings.
Vice-versa for the EURO.
DOW / SP500 daily chart remains over-extended and the correction is overdue.
Fri, 01/15/2010 - 11:01
#57
yesterday was the top. Alcoa, Intel, and JP Morgan all come out with results ranging from super to poor, and they all sell off.
thanks for your work, i've kept an eye on it over the past few months. i agree, the USD is headed much higher now. gold, oil, anti-dollar trades much lower.
Fri, 01/15/2010 - 11:01
#58
yesterday was the top. Alcoa, Intel, and JP Morgan all come out with results ranging from super to poor, and they all sell off.
thanks for your work, i've kept an eye on it over the past few months. i agree, the USD is headed much higher now. gold, oil, anti-dollar trades much lower.
Fri, 01/15/2010 - 13:41
#59
The included chart (I know its Yahoo, for illustration only) shows volume spike buying at what was to me undoubtedly a confirmation (among many others) that building a long USD position made great sense. USD up equities down going forward.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=UUP#chart2:symbol=uup;range=1y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=1;logscale=off;source=undefined
Fri, 01/15/2010 - 14:14
#60
The DOW / SP500 correction has started it seems.
More updates hopefully this weekend.
Tue, 01/19/2010 - 05:37
#61
Daily charts of key equity indexes are very bearish after being overextended for too long.
Is the March 2009 bear market rally ending ?
My ongoing USD bull and EURO bear warnings continue.
The USD weekly chart continues to give bullish warnings and vice versa for the EURO.
Wed, 01/20/2010 - 12:03
#62
My previous bearish warnings for stocks is now confirmed.
My previous USD bull and EURO bear warnings are also confirmed.
Wed, 01/20/2010 - 13:40
#63
Not so fast brother, stocks appear to rallying right at bottom of the range they have held for the last F---ing three weeks. Unbelievable.
Wed, 01/20/2010 - 23:37
#64
Patience...
Thu, 01/21/2010 - 00:35
#65
So, has your weekly reading for S&P finally turned bearish?
thanks
Thu, 01/21/2010 - 04:40
#66
DOW / SP500
Daily trend - now bearish after months of being overextended.
Weekly trend - neutral / bullish (ie a mild uptrend )
Monthly trend - bearish (since early 2008)
COPPER (the economic barometer)
Daily trend - neutral and over extended -showing signs of weakness.
Weekly trend - bullish / neutral
Monthly trend - neutral
When the above weekly charts give bear signals, the March 2009 bear market rally can be confirmed as over.
Sat, 01/23/2010 - 01:34
#67
Yes, if you can share your chart porn I'm sure many would love to see it.
Thu, 01/21/2010 - 00:58
#68
what chart are you looking at?
Tue, 01/26/2010 - 01:07
#69
DOW / SP500 daily charts remain in a downtrend , weeklies are in a weakening uptrend.
Tue, 01/26/2010 - 19:14
#70
Hi Grand Supercycle,
Do you see any possibility of Dow bouncing back to 10,300 before breaking down? Also,it would be great if you can share with us your charts?
Thanks for your views.
novice
Thu, 01/28/2010 - 01:15
#71
A counter trend rally started on Wed 27th: aka a dead cat bounce.
May last several days hopefully ?
The daily trend remains down and weekly trend is sideways atm.
I will look into posting charts.
Thu, 01/28/2010 - 10:56
#72
After only one day of the counter trend rally, it looks dodgy already.
Fri, 01/29/2010 - 02:47
#73
It's very choppy and indecisive, but the counter trend rally is showing some strength again.
The daily trend remains DOWN.
Fri, 01/29/2010 - 09:03
#74
Yes, the counter trend rally shows some strength.
Fri, 01/29/2010 - 13:03
#75
We had a good spike today but then the bearish daily downtrend exerted its influence once again.
Sat, 01/30/2010 - 01:51
#76
Previous bearish warnings for key equity indexes have been confirmed and the DOW / SP500 are in a downtrend on the daily chart.
The weekly charts of key equity indexes show increasing signs of weakness and when they also begin to trend down, the March 2009 bear
market rally can be confirmed as over.
Longer term monthly charts have remained bearish since early 2008.
As mentioned many times, I have been expecting a US Dollar rally for some time and bullish warnings issued several months ago still apply.
The USD index daily chart and now the weekly chart - continue to show strength and vice versa for the EURO.
Previous bullish warnings for the VIX index continue and the daily chart has recently started to trend up.
As mentioned, the COPPER daily chart has been overextended for some time and earlier bearish signals have resulted in a downtrend starting. The weekly chart uptrend now shows serious signs of weakness.
CRUDE OIL daily chart has been going sideways for some time and the daily uptrend has stalled. The weekly uptrend has been showing signs of weakness for months and when it rolls over, the crude rally can be
confirmed as finished.
Mon, 02/01/2010 - 11:12
#77
The DOW/SP500 counter trend rally is showing strength again, so a dead cat bounce is possible.
Tue, 02/02/2010 - 20:50
#78
The (temporary) counter trend rally continues and the daily trend remains down.
Wed, 02/03/2010 - 08:57
#79
The (temporary) counter trend rally is weakening and could be ending.
Thu, 02/04/2010 - 10:05
#80
The recent counter trend rally has finished.
The March 2009 bear market rally looks over.
DOW / SP500 downtrend on the daily chart continues.
More updates later.
Sun, 02/07/2010 - 03:36
#81
Daily chart of the DOW showing the bearish rising wedge it broke out of and next good support is shown around 9700.
It won't hold though.
Sun, 02/07/2010 - 13:27
#82
i agree. everyone closed out on friday just to avoid the EU bailing out Greece news tonight, and the short-term that will follow it. i'm hoping we get back to 1090-1100 so i can take more short positions.
that is what is has come to, we expect govt intervention so we don't hold short positions over the weekend. just stupid.
Mon, 02/08/2010 - 18:16
#83
I'm thinking ~9250 for at least a bounce...
Tue, 02/09/2010 - 07:45
#84
This market has support and more counter trend rally looks likely.
SP00/DOW downtrend on the daily chart continues.
Tue, 02/09/2010 - 11:29
#85
The SP00/DOW downtrend and the USD uptrend reasert their dominance once again.
Wed, 02/10/2010 - 06:29
#86
Very choppy with mixed signals but the market still has support and more counter trend rally looks likely.
SP00/DOW downtrend on the daily chart continues.
Wed, 02/10/2010 - 10:30
#87
No more counter trend rally: the SP00/DOW downtrend and the USD uptrend reasert their dominance yet again.
This is very bearish for equities.
Wed, 02/10/2010 - 17:40
#88
I bet you spent more time in finding the most evil clown pic for your profile than you do on any one of your technical analysis'. AMIRITE?
Thu, 02/11/2010 - 09:57
#89
Previous choppy sideways action for DOW/SP500 and EURO have resolved once again to the downside.
So SP00/DOW downtrend and the USD uptrend reasert their dominance yet again.
This is very bearish for equities.
Thu, 02/11/2010 - 13:16
#90
The mixed signals with choppy sideways action continues.
SP500 / DOW buying support has returned despite the EURO tanking.
SP500 / DOW downtrend on the daily chart won't resume until this buying support ceases.
Thu, 02/11/2010 - 23:37
#91
Choppy sideways action with mixed signals for DOW / SP500 / EURO / COPPER continues.
The DOW / SP500 / EURO / COPPER downtrend will not resume until the ongoing support ceases.
So although trends on their daily charts remain down, more counter trend rally is possible.
Fri, 02/12/2010 - 05:50
#92
Previous choppy sideways action for DOW/SP500 and EURO have resolved once again to the downside.
Very choppy mixed signals continue but daily trends for DOW/SP500/EURO will always remain down.
So the SP00/DOW downtrend and the USD uptrend reasert their dominance yet again.
This trend will get stronger.
Fri, 02/12/2010 - 16:31
#93
I agree, but you really need to update at the close.
USD is not something I'd want to be short here. http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=w
Sat, 02/13/2010 - 07:36
#94
Sorry for delay with update.
Choppy sideways action and chronic mixed signals continued this week, but the buying support I have previously mentioned returned on Friday.
It seems the DOW / SP500 / EURO / COPPER counter trend rally may start this coming week.
Daily charts remain bearish of course.
Sat, 02/13/2010 - 21:38
#95
Are you serious? You change you call on equities every five minutes - and decisively so. Is this a joke???
Mon, 02/15/2010 - 05:48
#96
Anonymous,
The markets have been undecided and giving mixed signals, but a counter trend rally still looks possible.
Nothing changes the bearish big picture though.
Hope that helps.
Mon, 02/15/2010 - 22:18
#97
Choppy sideways action and chronic mixed signals continued last week, but the buying support I had previously noted, returned yet again on Friday 12 Feb.
It seems the DOW / SP500 / EURO / COPPER counter trend rally may start this week as intra day signals are bullish again.
But daily charts remain bearish and this will always have more overall influence over the market direction.
Tue, 02/16/2010 - 08:59
#98
Grand Super..i appreciate your updates and look forward to them, also thank you for displaying maturity by not stooping to the level of those bashing you.
We need you here. thanks.
Thu, 02/18/2010 - 22:16
#99
I second that notion.
Tue, 02/16/2010 - 14:27
#100
Thanks for your comments jdrose.
After lots of choppy action DOW / SP500 / EURO / COPPER counter trend rally has started.
Daily charts remain bearish so this is only a temporary bounce.
Wed, 02/17/2010 - 22:06
#101
The dollar rally I warned of since last year has only just started.
USD daily and weekly charts remain bullish.
Vice versa for the EURO.
Thu, 02/18/2010 - 10:57
#102
DOW / SP500 / EURO / COPPER counter trend rally continues.
Daily charts remain bearish so this is only a temporary bounce.
Thu, 02/18/2010 - 14:11
#103
How close are we to the top of this bounce? ty
Thu, 02/18/2010 - 22:17
#104
Might be done already. Probably need a couple hundred DOW points to be sure...
Fri, 02/19/2010 - 23:25
#105
DOW / SP500 / EURO / COPPER counter trend rally continues.
My target for this bounce is approx 10,500 for DOW futures.
The counter trend remains up for now, and i'll update when I see it ending.
Sat, 02/20/2010 - 17:28
#106
Thanks!
Sat, 02/20/2010 - 22:03
#107
Daily chart of DOW index showing the counter trend rally.
Sun, 02/21/2010 - 22:46
#108
the major dow down trendline from the 2007 top would be hit at about 10550. I doubt the dow stops until at least there. If that trendline is broken, then I think everyone must seriously consider that this current bull has a long way to go.
Mon, 02/22/2010 - 22:38
#109
Yes and we are on fumes here. It literally feels like that moment of weightlessness at the top of a roller coaster where everything seems to pause momentarily.
I am not a technician or anything...but the air has a heavy feeling such as right before a storm. I have sold all equities and drawn down everything from my accounts and am holding about 80% physical cash and the rest PM's right now.
If history is any guide whatsoever, what comes next aint going to be pretty. Will not even bother shorting this market, just waiting on a tangible industrial revolution to take hold (within next 18-30 months)
Tue, 02/23/2010 - 14:41
#110
Pretty good call so far.
Tue, 02/23/2010 - 07:12
#111
SP500/DOW counter trend rally may be ending.
Current SP500 futures action (1104 atm) has turned bearish.
Will update more later.
Tue, 02/23/2010 - 10:58
#112
SP500 / DOW / COPPER counter trend rally looks over.
SP500 futures currently 1096.
More updates later.
Tue, 02/23/2010 - 17:00
#113
Thanks!
Fri, 02/26/2010 - 00:15
#114
That previously noted buying support has returned yet again ...
So we may get more counter trend rally.
SP500 / DOW / COPPER daily and weekly charts remain bearish.
Fri, 02/26/2010 - 03:10
#115
damnit...
Fri, 02/26/2010 - 04:12
#116
Grand Supercycle,
Thanks for your updates. In your view, have we topped out on the S&P/Dow for this bear market recovery? Does counter-trend rally mean that new highs aren't possible?
Thanks again.
Fri, 02/26/2010 - 14:36
#117
Yes we got more counter trend rally.
And massive EURO short covering too.
--------------------------
Anonymous, daily and weekly charts remain bearish but messy and very choppy.
A counter-trend rally is a small rally that goes against the main trend (which is currently down / sideways)
Since the daily and weekly time frames are still bearish I don't see any new highs coming up.
Sat, 02/27/2010 - 03:11
#118
The ongoing SP500/DOW buying support continues and more counter trend rally is possible next week.
Sat, 02/27/2010 - 11:25
#119
Good council GS...you still think the US Dollar long term rallies to 85-89?
Sun, 02/28/2010 - 01:23
#120
Hi,
No targets for the USD index atm, but daily and weekly charts remain bullish and I still expect a substantial USD rally as other currencies like EURO etc. continue to trend down.
It could be a multi year USD uptrend.
The USD uptrend should strengthen when the DOW/SP500 downtrend becomes more established.
But there will be more SP500/DOW choppy counter trend rally this week it seems. So this means some EURO strength and thus USD weakness.
Sun, 02/28/2010 - 09:10
#121
The DOW counter trend rally continues to trend up and current target is 10,550
USD should retrace during this time while EURO has a counter trend rally (it's just started)
This choppy DOW rally could end anytime as the more influential daily and weekly charts remain bearish.
Looking ahead, the USD rally I forecast way back last year should continue to strengthen and EURO / COPPER should continue to weaken during 2010.
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 11:01
#122
DOW / SP500 is totally ignoring the bullish USD and bearish EURO.
Yikes.
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 13:33
#123
So that means you dont know what the heck is going on??? Dont think anyone does but still like to know your views on things.
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 22:41
#124
We have seen directionless, choppy action with conflicting signals.
However DOW/SP500 weekly and monthly charts are not bullish and when the current buying support stops, the main downtrend can resume.
USD Index weekly chart remains bullish.
Tue, 03/02/2010 - 07:08
#125
DOW/SP500 buying support and counter trend rally continues so far. This does not change the bearish bigger picture though.
As noted earlier, a USD pullback and EURO bounce is possible.
DOW/SP500/COPPER/EURO weekly charts are not bullish.
USD index weekly chart remains bullish.
Tue, 03/02/2010 - 15:47
#126
"I warned of an impending stockmarket crash in early 2007."
Where is that warning? I would be interested in reading your previous postings prior to ZH. Thanks for the updates.
Fri, 03/05/2010 - 22:33
#127
Hi,
For proof of all my analysis since Feb 2007, contact me and I'll email it to you.
crinia [at] gmail.com
Tue, 03/02/2010 - 21:21
#128
USD retracement (aka pullback) and EURO counter trend rally signals got stronger yesterday.
These possible USD and EURO counter trend moves don't change their main trends. (ie EURO bearish and USD bullish)
XAUUSD (gold in US dollars) daily chart has just gone bullish.
Thu, 03/04/2010 - 12:18
#129
These possible USD and EURO counter trend moves don't change their main trends. (ie EURO bearish and USD bullish)
GS how is the dollar looking against the EURO today, do still see a bullish USD trend?
thanks
Fri, 03/05/2010 - 10:41
#130
Rockfish,
EURO and USD index daily charts are choppy and going sideways atm, but the more influential weekly outlook has not changed.
When DOW/SP500 primary downtrend resumes this year, the EURO and USD index should trend better. (ie USD up and EURO down)
USD index weekly chart still gives bullish warnings.
EURO weekly chart still gives bearish warnings.
USDJPY (dollar yen) daily chart now gives bullish warnings.
Fri, 03/05/2010 - 11:22
#131
GS,
We closing in 10550 on the Dow, so we wait and see?
Regards
Fri, 03/05/2010 - 22:54
#132
DOW/SP500 counter trend rally continues but it could terminate anytime as larger time frame charts are not bullish.
The 10,550 target may be exceeded, anything is possible with these choppy extremely volatile markets.
What we do know is that DOW/SP500/COPPER/EURO weekly charts remain bearish/sideways and they've been like this for a few months now.
Sat, 03/06/2010 - 06:09
#133
UPDATE:
EURO daily chart is now giving mild bullish warnings so the previously mentioned EURO counter trend rally is quite possible.
The opposite applies for the USD index.
As the buying support is still present, the DOW/SP500 counter trend rally may continue for longer.
The DOW/SP500/EURO/COPPER bearish medium to long term outlook has not changed. (ie their weekly and monthly charts remain bearish)
Sun, 03/07/2010 - 21:45
#134
EURO daily chart giving stronger bullish warnings so EURO rally looking probable at this stage.
Opposite applies for the USD index of course.
Tue, 03/09/2010 - 00:36
#135
The undecided EURO daily chart has now gone neutral (ie going sideways) so it could break out up or down.
EURO weekly chart is bearish to neutral. This medium to long term outlook will always be more influential than the daily chart.
The opposite applies for the USD index.
In other words, this year I expect a continuation of the USD rally when the DOW/SP500 downtrend resumes.
Tue, 03/09/2010 - 21:23
#136
EURO daily trend is still neutral and a break out from this sideways pattern is overdue.
EURO weekly trend remains bearish/neutral. This medium to long term outlook will always be more influential than shorter time frames.
Opposite applies for USD index.
Tue, 03/09/2010 - 21:24
#137
hEY Supercycle..would you mind putting up a chart or two once in a while? I'd really appreciate it. I check what you have to say every day.
'preciate it!
Wed, 03/10/2010 - 07:31
#138
SP500/DOW buying support continues so more counter trend rally is possible. We will know soon.
DOW weekly chart enclosed, showing possible new target around 11,100 (green line)
Note decreasing volume since Jan 2009, revealing lack of buyers.
http://i42.tinypic.com/20zb1wz.jpg
EURO daily chart may be forming a bullish base but weekly chart remains bearish.
Fri, 03/12/2010 - 00:14
#139
SP500/DOW buying support and the counter trend rally continues for now. Weekly charts remain bearish/neutral so this rally could end anytime because the larger time frame trend is not bullish.
EURO YEN daily chart may be forming a base which may result in a rally. Weekly chart is bearish.
As mentioned, EURO daily chart may be forming a base which may result in a rally.
However weekly chart remains bearish,thus important trends and time frames are conflicting with each other.
Opposite applies for USD index.
All this conflicting price action will continue until the DOW/SP500 main downtrend resumes.
DOW/SP500 monthly trend (the big picture) remains bearish.
Fri, 03/12/2010 - 07:03
#140
After the bullish basing, EURO and EUROYEN daily chart has now begun to trend up and it will be a long trade until their bearish weekly charts take over.
Opposite applies for USD index.
Mon, 03/15/2010 - 06:36
#141
There is minimal stockmarket market consensus: reflecting the uncertainty and chaos in the economy.
So conflicting trend action continues.
When the daily chart direction is not in sync with the weekly direction and the monthly direction this is the result.
These conflicting cycles have been occuring for several months now and as mentioned earlier, this choppy directionless behaviour won't be resolved until the DOW/SP500/EURO resume their downtrend and USD resumes it's uptrend.
But what happens when market participants are more in agreement with each other and trend direction is more uniform and reliable ?
That's what we had between 2003 and 2007 but it's not coming back.
Mon, 03/15/2010 - 10:20
#142
Last prices:
1.3681 EURO
1144 SP500 futures
Bullish USD weekly chart exerts its influence yet again and DOW/SP500/EURO daily chart now give bearish warnings.
Mon, 03/15/2010 - 16:50
#143
All I really see here, is a bunch of calls that never played out.
"counter trend rally is ending, Dow target 10500."
Did you see it's up to 10700 almost now?
Just because you change your calls the next day when they're wrong over and over does not mean that you weren't wrong in the first place.
Mon, 03/15/2010 - 22:19
#144
I have to agree.
Tue, 03/16/2010 - 01:28
#145
Many analysts are aware that currently there is much uncertainty regarding market direction.
Lack of consensus between market participants being a significant factor.
Conflicting patterns have been occuring for several months now and this choppy directionless behaviour won't be resolved until the DOW/SP500/EURO resume their downtrend and USD resumes it's uptrend.
Unfortunately I have no control over the economy or the markets.
Two monthly charts of the DOW are enclosed showing how we have been going sideways for several months now. In other words the big picture as represented by these long term charts - shows how buying and selling strength is in equal proportions and as a result there is no clear trend on a monthly basis.
SP500 chart is very similar.
Tue, 03/16/2010 - 16:57
#146
The strength are not proportional, we have had many up days on small volumes and of the down days, most are distribution days on much higher volume.
Enjoy your commentary and appreciate you posting them but why dont you just post something only when your TA has confirmed a top or a reversal.
Tue, 03/16/2010 - 20:49
#147
USD index daily chart is now bearish.
Weekly chart remains bullish. (this is why I know the USD rally has much further to go)
Monthly chart remains bullish/neutral (ie mildly bullish)
If we get the USD pullback that the daily chart indicates we may, then we will know what other markets should do. (eg euro,copper,stocks up)
Thu, 03/18/2010 - 02:20
#148
USD bearish daily chart vs. bullish weekly chart battle continues.
OR
EURO bullish daily chart vs. bearish weekly chart battle continues.
Thu, 03/18/2010 - 02:24
#149
THIS THREAD HAS GOT TOO LONG.
PLEASE CLICK HERE:
I warned of an impending stockmarket crash in early 2007.
crinia [at] gmail.com
DOW / SP500:
Daily chart - ongoing topping action is now bearish / neutral
Weekly chart - neutral / bullish
Monthly chart - bearish
VIX INDEX:
Daily chart - ongoing bullish divergence is now bullish
Weekly chart - bearish / neutral
Monthly chart - neutral
CRUDE OIL:
Daily chart - ongoing topping action is now bearish.
Weekly chart - neutral.
Monthly chart - neutral.
COPPER:
Daily chart - ongoing topping action is now bearish.
Weekly chart - neutral.
Monthly chart - neutral.
USD INDEX:
Daily chart - neutral/bullish
Weekly chart - bearish.
Monthly chart - still *bullish*
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX:
Daily chart - still bearish
Weekly chart - neutral
Monthly chart - neutral