en Dozens Feared Dead After Huge Avalanche Buries Luxury Italian Hotel In After Earthquakes <p>Following a series of strong earthquakes, a huge avalanche ploughed into a luxury mountain hotel in central Italy with up to 30 people feared to be buried under the snow, officials said on Thursday. </p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Dozens are feared dead after an avalanche buried this Italian hotel <a href=""></a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>— CNN (@CNN) <a href="">January 19, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><p>The disaster happened at the base of the Gran Sasso mountain range near the Rigopiano di Farindola hotel. The avalanche struck on Wednesday evening, just hours after four earthquakes with a magnitude of above 5.0 hit central Italy, sparking fears about possible avalanches. In addition to the quakes, the country has been pounded by heavy snowfall and rain.</p> <p>The Gran Sasso Resort Farindola (Pescara) is a situated&nbsp; some 1,200 meters above sea level.</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="335" /></a></p> <p>Rescue battled blizzard conditions during the night to reach the isolated hotel on skis. They arrived in the dark to find most of the four-storey structure submerged under a mountain of snow and debris <a href="">Reuters reports</a>. </p> <p><img src="" width="500" height="281" /></p> <p>"Around 30 people are unaccounted for, between guests and workers at the Hotel Rigopiano in Farindola," Fabrizio Curcio, head of Italy's civil protection department, told reporters. Italy's ANSA news agency reported that one body had been recovered, but there was no immediate confirmation of this. The civil agency added that there were up to 20 guests, some of them children, and seven staff members in the three-story hotel.</p> <p>The head of a rescue squad that reached the hotel reported that “there are many dead,” as cited on the Italian news agency ANSA’s <a href="">website</a>.</p> <p>More than 12 hours after the wall of snow smashed into the four-star hotel, which is some 1,200 metres (4,000 ft) above sea level, only two survivors had been accounted for.</p> <p>"I am alive because I went to get something from my car," one of the two, Giampiero Parete, told medical staff, according to la Repubblica website.</p> <p>The rescue operation has been hampered by up to 5 metres (16 ft) of snow which has fallen on the Gran Sasso mountain range in the central Abruzzo region in recent days, blocking access roads.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="it">Hotel sotto <a href="">#slavina</a> immagini dei primi soccorsi bloccati dalla <a href="">#neve</a>,"stanno arrivando carabinieri e ambulanze", operatore di <a href="">#chilhavisto</a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Chi l'ha visto? (@chilhavistorai3) <a href="">January 18, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><p>"We haven't been able to do too much. The structure has collapsed. It's more like a pile of rubble than a hotel," said Antonio Crocetta, a member of the Alpine Rescue squad who was on the scene. "What is left of the hotel is in danger of collapse. The hotel is almost completely destroyed. We've called out but we've heard no replies, no voices. We're digging and looking for people," he told Reuters speaking by telephone.</p> <p>On Thursday, the president of Pescara province wrote on Facebook that there were 20 guests at the hotel when it was buried by the avalanche, as cited by AP. “What is certain is that the building took a direct hit from the avalanche, to the point that it was moved by 10 meters,” he added, as quoted by AFP.</p> <p>A base camp for rescue workers was set up in the town of Penne, some 10 km (6 miles) away, where ambulances waited for earth-moving vehicles to clear the winding, snow-clogged road leading to the hotel.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="it"><a href="">#Slavina</a> su hotel <a href="">#Rigopiano</a>: struttura in parte crollata e in parte sommersa dalla neve <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Agenzia ANSA (@Agenzia_Ansa) <a href="">January 19, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><p>The avalanche collapsed part of the four-storey hotel, which had 43 rooms, shunting it some 10 metres (30 ft) down the hill, according to media reports.</p> <p>The first rescuers only managed to arrive at 4.30 a.m. (0330 GMT) after they had to ski through a heavy snow storm to reach the site. After dawn broke, emergency services sent in helicopters. "We’re dropping our rescue units down by helicopter and they are starting to dig," said Luca Cari, spokesman for the national fire brigades.</p> <p>An aerial shot of the hotel released by the fire brigade showed just the last floor and the roof visible above a thick blanket of snow.</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="278" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="900" height="500" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Abruzzo Avalanche carabinieri central Italy Disaster Farindola Geography of Europe Geography of Italy Gran Sasso d'Italia Hospitality Italy Pescara Reuters Sasso Twitter Twitter Thu, 19 Jan 2017 12:04:09 +0000 Tyler Durden 585843 at Global Stocks Dip; Bond Yields, Dollar Rise After Yellen's Rate Guidance; All Eyes On Draghi <p>After yesterday's speech by Janet Yellen which signaled a path of steady interest rate increases and was perceived as hawkish, the dollar rebounded, Asian shares slipped and government bond yields jumped to multi-week highs on Thursday. </p> <p>European, Asian stocks and US equity futures all decline together with commodity metals while oil rises on the API reported drop in crude inventories. The euro rebounded as investors look to Mario Draghi to address quickening inflation that make his stimulative policies look increasingly out of sync, even if the market is confident the ECB won't make any changes to its policy today. That said the ECB may struggle to downplay the recent spike in Eurozone inflation.</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="303" /></a></p> <p>Top news stories include Netflix reporting its biggest quarter ever, Credit Suisse resolving U.S. mortgage probe, France’s Safran buying Zodiac in $10 billion aviation deal.</p> <p>In markets, the main focus for the past 24 hours has been once again on the fairly large moves across rates and FX, albeit moves which largely ended up being a reversal of the previous day’s price action. 10y Treasury yields closed a shade over 10bps higher yesterday at 2.430% while the USD index rebounded +0.60% and finished higher for the first time in over a week. Those moves were given a late boost by comments from Fed Chair Yellen who said that “it is fair to say the economy is near maximum employment and inflation is moving toward our goal”. She also said that while “it makes sense to gradually reduce the level of monetary policy support” the actual timing of the next Fed rate hike “will depend on how the economy actually evolves over coming months”. So a fairly straight bat approach.</p> <p>As a result, the dollar gained almost one percent from Thursday's lows against a basket of currencies, yields climbed in Europe, catching up with Treasuries which sold off yesterday after Fed chair Janet Yellen said the American economy is strong enough to warrant higher interest rates, bringing the ECB’s quantitative easing into sharper relief as policymakers led by Draghi meet today. Stocks fell, led lower by real estate after an indicator of U.K. house prices fell for the first time in five months in December as values slumped in London.&nbsp; </p> <p>Yellen's hawkishness appeared to be wearing off on Thursday, though, as investors, looking for further details on Trump's plans to boost growth, remained cautious before the President-elect's inauguration on Friday. As a reminder, <strong>Yellen will speak again later on Thursday, after European markets close, about the economic outlook and monetary policy.</strong></p> <p>The ECB is set to meet as the euro recovered some of the ground it lost overnight, but with no policy changes expected. However, hints of disagreements among the region's monetary guardians could ruffle markets.</p> <p>European stocks opened a tad higher with some big moves in single stocks, as Zodiac Aerospace surged following a takeover offer, and jumped after it reported strong results.</p> <p>Asian shares edged down 0.2 percent, knocked back by the dollar. Bucking the trend of weaker Asian shares, Japan's Nikkei stock index ended up 0.9 percent, helped by weaker yen.</p> <p>"Of all the speakers we're getting, either from Davos or from less ostentatious spots, the one I'm going to listen to most for now will probably still be Janet Yellen," Societe Generale's currency strategist Kit Juckes said <a href="">cited by Reuters</a>. "As the U.S. economy approaches full employment, as wages rise but inflation rises nearly as quickly, how hawkish the Fed dares to be will determine how much the dollar rises."</p> <p>Euro zone government bonds were still moving in the slipstream of Yellen's speech with benchmark German bond yields spiking to one-month highs after U.S. equivalents rose to their highest since Jan. 9. Yields on 10-year German bunds jumped 3 basis points to 0.38 percent by 9:40 a.m. in London. Treasury yields were steady at 2.43 percent.</p> <p>As Reuters adds, and as we <a href="">previewed overnight</a>, earlier in Asia, short-term funding costs in China shot to their highest in nearly 10 years on fears that liquidity was tightening heading into the Lunar New Year holidays at the end of this month.&nbsp; "The market is typically short of liquidity ahead of the Lunar New Year," said Gu Weiyong, chief investment officer at bond-focused hedge fund Ucom Investment Co, adding that a cash injection by the central bank was insufficient.</p> <p>Crude oil prices regained some ground lost in the previous session when the dollar strengthened as investors turned their attention to upcoming government data on U.S. inventories. A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for those holding other currencies. U.S. crude added 0.8 percent to $51.50 per barrel, after shedding 2.67% on Wednesday. Brent crude rose 0.7 percent to $54.32 after slipping 2.79%.</p> <p><strong>Market Snapshot</strong></p> <ul> <li>S&amp;P 500 futures down 0.2% to 2263</li> <li>Stoxx 600 down 0.3% to 362</li> <li>FTSE 100 down 0.6% to 7206</li> <li>DAX down 0.1% to 11585</li> <li>German 10Yr yield up 2bps to 0.38%</li> <li>Italian 10Yr yield up 3bps to 1.99%</li> <li>Spanish 10Yr yield up 3bps to 1.48%</li> <li>S&amp;P GSCI Index up 0.2% to 395.9</li> <li>MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.2% to 140</li> <li>Nikkei 225 up 0.9% to 19072</li> <li>Hang Seng down 0.2% to 23050</li> <li>Shanghai Composite down 0.4% to 3101</li> <li>S&amp;P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 5692</li> <li>US 10-yr yield down less than 1bp to 2.42%</li> <li>Dollar Index up 0.18% to 101.11</li> <li>WTI Crude futures up 0.6% to $51.40</li> <li>Brent Futures up 0.7% to $54.28</li> <li>Gold spot down less than 0.1% to $1,204</li> <li>Silver spot down 0.5% to $16.98</li> </ul> <p><strong>Top Global News</strong></p> <ul> <li>Netflix Soars, Esquire Goes Dark as More TV Viewers Move Online: Online video leader beats projections in U.S., foreign markets</li> <li>Credit Suisse Resolves U.S. Mortgage Probe for $5.3 Billion: Bank to pay $2.5 billion fine, $2.8 billion in consumer relief</li> <li>Safran to Buy Zodiac for $10 Billion in All-French Aviation Deal: Struggling seat supplier accepts bid from aero-engine maker</li> <li>Goldman Says Aluminum Poised for Big Gains If China Widens Cuts: China seen widening capacity cuts to aluminum from steel, coal</li> <li>Kremlin Said to Fear Trump Won’t Be a Great Deal After All: Top officials fret furor in U.S. over hacking could hurt thaw</li> <li>Russia Weighs FX Purchases as Strong Ruble Hits Exporters: Russia considers how to cut volatility of real exchange rate</li> <li>Vegemite Heads Back to Australia in $345 Million Bega Deal: Bega Cheese to acquire global trademark rights for Vegemite</li> <li>CSX Jumps on Report Hilal, CP Rail’s Harrison Targeting Company: WSJ reports, citing unidentified people familiar</li> <li>Oclaro Jumps 5.5% After 2Q Preliminary Revenue Tops Estimate</li> <li>Plexus Drops 2.6% Post-Mkt; Sees 2Q Revenue Below Estimates</li> <li>Canadian Pacific Railway 4Q Adj. EPS Misses Est.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Looking at regional markets, Asia stocks traded mixed </strong>following a similar lacklustre lead from Wall St, although exporters in Japan have been buoyed by a weaker JPY. This saw the Nikkei 225 (+0.9%)&nbsp; outperform with the power sector underpinned by TEPCO plans to resume bond issuances for the 1st time since the 2011 Fukushima disaster, while there were also reports that the nuclear regulator passed safety screenings for 2 Kyushu reactors. Elsewhere, ASX 200 (+0.2%) was marginally positive with healthcare outperforming after CSL upgraded its FY net guidance, while Hang Seng (-0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.4%) had been dampened following a reduced liquidity operation by the PBoC. Finally, 10yr JGBs saw spill-over selling to track T-notes lower amid heightened risk appetite for Japanese stocks, while a discouraging 5yr auction also pressured in which b/c fell from prior and lowest accepted price missed the consensus.</p> <p><em>Top Asia News</em></p> <ul> <li>Takata Bidders Said to Favor Japan Bankruptcy; Shares Tumble: Takata says no decision has been made on turnaround plan</li> <li>Asia’s Worst EM Currency Seen Most Resilient in 2017 Survey: Philippine peso is forecast to be the most resilient to external risks this year</li> <li>Toshiba Drops 16 Percent on Reported Writedown Losses: the writedown may exceed 700 billion yen, Kyodo reports</li> <li>Indonesia, Malaysia Hold Rates as Fed Fuels Currency Weakness: Most economists predicted decision by the two central banks</li> <li>China Signals It May Aim Lower on Cleaner-Burning Fuel Target: Natural gas share in total energy mix will be 8.3% to 10%</li> </ul> <p><strong>European equities (Euro Stoxx 50: -0.2%) trade modestly in the red </strong>after a choppy start to the session. Earnings are beginning to come into focus, with Royal Mail (-5.2%) the notable laggard in the FTSE 100, with the Co.'s shares at 11 month lows. Similarly, Carrefour (1.3%) are among the worst performers in the CAC in the wake of their pre market earnings. Elsewhere, on a sector specific basis, commodities dictate play with materials seeing upside this morning, while energy names weigh on European indices. Fixed income markets have seen pressure throughout the morning, with Bunds back below the 163 level in tandem with some of the softness seen in T-Notes in the wake of comments from Fed's Yellen yesterday, who suggested she sees a few hikes a year as the economy continues to recover. Elsewhere, ahead of today's ECB rate decision and press conference, source reports have emerged that the ECB lacks a deal on how to buy bonds below deposit rate but will do so despite the lack of a deal.</p> <p><em>Top European News</em></p> <ul> <li>ECB Said to Lack Agreement on How to Buy Debt Below Deposit Rate: Hold-up linked to complexity of $2.4 trillion QE program</li> <li>Goldman May Cut London Staff by 50% on Brexit, Handelsblatt Says: Firm says no decision has been made, doesn’t recognize figures</li> <li>U.K. House Price Gauge Declines for First Time in Five Months: Home prices in London decrease for 10th consecutive month</li> <li>May Says U.K. Must Accept the Road Ahead Will Be Uncertain</li> </ul> <p><strong>In currencies, </strong>much of the FX price action from Fed chair Yellen's comments late yesterday played out through NY and Asia, while London tried to push USD/JPY towards 115.00, though sellers here have contained the move for now. The limited pullback shows intent on retesting these levels and higher, with higher UST yields recovering well as 'skew' moves to the right of the 2-3 rate hike expectation range for this year. Headwinds for EUR/USD though as the market remains wary of any taper talk at today's ECB meeting. Sellers above 1.0700 will be a little unnerved by the lack of follow through on the downside, as we held off 1.0600 before the latest modest recovery, but this may all change past the press conference later today. The post Brexit speech analysis continues to pull Cable either side of 1.2300 in the meantime, but widespread reports of investment banks transferring some of their operations over to the continent have added some weight, helping to contain the short squeeze in the low 1.2400's. EUR/GBP is now also in consolidation mode, trading the .8600-.8700 range over the last 24 hours.</p> <p><strong>In commodities, </strong>oil prices have have staged a modest rebound with no major catalyst seen other than longs perhaps unnerved by the US inauguration ahead. The API report suggested an inventory drawdown, but to little effect, offset by a surge in gasoline stocks, as such WTI maintains a USD51.00 handle. Gold has taken a hit after the USD rallied on Fed Chair Yellen's comments late yesterday alluding to a steeper rate path as she highlighted the dangers of allowing the economy to overheat. Silver is down 1.5% this morning. This does not seem to have done the rest of the commodity complex much harm (the USD rise), with copper more or less flat on the day.</p> <p><strong>Looking at the day ahead, </strong>this morning in Europe there’s little in the way of data which instead clears the path to the aforementioned ECB policy meeting outcome at 7.45am ETwith Draghi due at 8.30am ET. Over in the US the data consists of December housing starts and building permits numbers, initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed business outlook. In addition to the data, the corporate reporting calendar today consists of American Express, IBM and Schlumberger, all after the close. Away from that, keep one eye on the apparent press briefing from Trump’s team at 2.15pm GMT. Finally after the US close Fed Chair Yellen will speak again, this time on Thursday evening (8pm) when she speaks to the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. Any reaction to that will come during the Asia session.</p> <p><strong>US Event Calendar</strong></p> <ul> <li>8:30am: Housing starts, Dec., est. 1.188m (prior 1.090m)</li> <li>8:30am: Building permits, Dec., est. 1.225m (prior 1.201m)</li> <li>8:30am: Initial jobless claims, Jan. 14, est. 252k (prior 247k)</li> <li>Continuing claims, est. 2.075m (prior 2.087m)</li> <li>8:30am: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, Jan., est. 15.3 (prior 21.5)</li> <li>9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Jan. 15 (prior 45.1)</li> <li>10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates</li> <li>10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change</li> <li>11am: DOE Energy Inventories</li> <li>8pm: Fed’s Yellen Speaks at Stanford</li> </ul> <p><strong>US Government events</strong></p> <ul> <li>President-elect Donald Trump inaugural festivities begin</li> <li>9:30am: Senate Energy and Natural Resources Cmte hearing on nomination of Rick Perry for Energy secretary</li> <li>10am: Senate Finance Cmte hearing on nomination of Steven Mnuchin for Treasury secretary</li> <li>1pm: Sen. Patty Murray, top Democrat on Senate Health Cmte, joins Democratic Sens. Debbie Stabenow of Mich. and Elizabeth Warren of Mass. to discuss “who would be hurt” by Obamacare repeal</li> </ul> <p><strong>DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap</strong></p> <p>Today is ECB day and with that it means another Draghi press conference at 1.30pm GMT. Given the big tapering story at the last meeting in December, it’s hard to see this one as being quite as exciting. In terms of the message, our economists are expecting patience to be the key theme today. They don’t think that the ECB will feel challenged by recent strong data but if the current data trends continue, the outright taper decision could accelerate to June rather than September – although the latter remains their baseline for now. The key on this front is whether inflation, especially core, is becoming more likely to exceed ECB&nbsp; forecasts.</p> <p>Yesterday we got confirmation that headline inflation rose to +1.1% yoy in December and +0.9% yoy at the core. Headline CPI could rise to +1.6% yoy and +1.8% yoy in January and February, respectively, according to our colleagues, although the earliest that the core will satisfy the minimum conditions for tightening is likely mid-year. That said the ECB won’t be afraid to change plans if necessary but today seems far too early but we’ll see what Draghi has to say later.</p> <p>Interestingly, Draghi’s press conference coincides with another press briefing from the Trump camp at 2.15pm GMT. That said it appears that it won’t actually feature the President-elect himself and will instead be left to his team to brief the media so it remains to be seen how market moving this will actually be. At this stage there are no details about what is to be discussed but it’s possible that some questions are directed at the recent confusion over both the border tax and about the incoming administrations' views on the dollar. </p> <p>Yesterday’s comments out of the Davos shindig and in particular from commerce secretary nominee, Wilbur Ross, may have also added some spice to proceedings. Ross directed some tough talking at China, saying that the nation is the “the most protectionist country” amongst the large nations. He also said that “they talk much more about free trade than they actually practice” and “we would like to levelize that playing field and bring the realities a bit closer to the rhetoric”. Away from China Ross also said that the NAFTA discussion will happen very soon after Friday’s inauguration while also pitching that his “number one objective will be expanding our exports”. So it’ll be interesting to see if any of this gets brought up too.</p> <p>Over in markets the main focus for the past 24 hours has been once again on the fairly large moves across rates and FX, albeit moves which largely ended up being a reversal of the previous day’s price action. 10y Treasury yields closed a shade over 10bps higher yesterday at 2.430% while the USD index rebounded +0.60% and finished higher for the first time in over a week. Those moves were given a late boost by comments from Fed Chair Yellen who said that “it is fair to say the economy is near maximum employment and inflation is moving toward our goal”. She also said that while “it makes sense to gradually reduce the level of monetary policy support” the actual timing of the next Fed rate hike “will depend on how the economy actually evolves over coming months”. So a fairly straight bat approach.</p> <p>Meanwhile equity markets continue to trudge along in a fairly directionless pattern. The S&amp;P 500 finished +0.18% with gains for financials offset by losses for telecoms and energy stocks. The latter were under pressure after WTI Oil tumbled -2.67% and back to $51/bbl after the IEA Chief warned that OPEC reigning in supply will likely result in a “significant” boost to US shale output. With regards to the gains for financials it was interesting to see that both Goldman Sachs (-0.62%) and Citigroup (-1.70%) closed in the red despite both banks adding to what has been a decent reporting season for US banks. Both reported beats at the profit line with the theme of stronger than expected FICC revenues once again playing out. </p> <p>Over in Europe the Stoxx 600 also closed +0.18% while there was a similar weak theme in rates where 10y Bund yields crept up 3.3bps to close at 0.351%. Staying in Europe, another comment which caught our eye yesterday was that from JP Morgan CEO, Jamie Dimon. Commenting about the impact of Brexit and the potential for further nationalist politicians to come to power, Dimon said that the “eurozone may not survive” in an interview with Bloomberg TV. Quite fascinating for such a high profile banker to doubt it publically.</p> <p>This morning in Asia we’ve seen the US Dollar continue to press on (+0.30%) which is putting some pressure on currencies in the region. Away from that equity bourses have been mixed once again, albeit on limited newsflow. The Nikkei is currently +0.81% with the Yen retreating a touch, while the Hang Seng (-0.59%) has weakened. Bourses in China, Korea and Australia are flat as we type. Moving on. Yesterday’s economic data didn’t sway too much from market expectations. In terms of the US December inflation report, headline CPI was reported as rising +0.3% mom which matched the consensus estimate and helped push the YoY rate up to +2.1% from +1.7%. The core rose +0.2%, also as expected, and helped nudge the YoY rate back up one-tenth to +2.2%. Away from that, industrial production was confirmed as rising +0.8% mom in December following a downwardly revised -0.7% mom in November. Finally the NAHB housing market index was a little softer than consensus, falling 2pts to 67. In the UK the ILO unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.8% in the three months to November, which matched expectations.</p> <p>Before we look at today’s calendar, yesterday we got confirmation that the UK Supreme Court appeal decision about whether or not the UK Government has the authority to trigger Article 50 without&nbsp; parliamentary appeal, will be made next Tuesday (on January 24). One to mark in the diary for next week. </p> <p>Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe there’s little in the way of data which instead clears the path to the aforementioned ECB policy meeting outcome at 12.45pm GMTwith Draghi due at 1.30pm GMT. Over in the US the data consists of December housing starts and building permits numbers, initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed business outlook. In addition to the data, the corporate reporting calendar today consists of American Express, IBM and Schlumberger, all after the close. Away from that, keep one eye on the apparent press briefing from Trump’s team at 2.15pm GMT. Finally after the US close Fed Chair Yellen will speak again, this time early on Friday morning (1am GMT) when she speaks to the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. Any reaction to that will come during the Asia session so we’ll have a review on Friday morning.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="723" height="438" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> aero American Express ASX 200 Australia B+ Bond Business CAC 40 Central banks China Citigroup Continuing Claims Copper CPI Credit Suisse Crude Crude Oil Davos DJ Euro Stoxx 50 Donald Trump Economy Elizabeth Warren Equity Markets Euro European Central Bank Eurozone Eurozone Federal funds rate federal government Federal Reserve System fixed Freddie Mac FTSE 100 goldman sachs Goldman Sachs Hang Seng 40 Housing Market Housing Starts Inflation Initial Jobless Claims Jamie Dimon Janet Yellen Janet Yellen Japan Jim Reid Mario Draghi Monetary Policy Monetary policy NAHB Natural Gas Nikkei Nikkei 225 Nomination Obamacare OPEC Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries People's Bank of China Philadelphia Fed Philly Fed Price Action Quantitative Easing Quantitative easing Real estate recovery Reuters S&P 500 S&P GSCI S&P/ASX 200 Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Stanford US Government Stoxx 600 UK Government UK Supreme Court Unemployment United Nations Volatility Wilbur Ross Yen Thu, 19 Jan 2017 11:39:45 +0000 Tyler Durden 585842 at Clinton Family Friend Charged After Threatening To Kill Donald Trump On Twitter <p>51 year-old Florida resident, Dominic Puopolo, who was arrested by Miami Beach police Tuesday for allegedly threatening President-elect Donald Trump online is, <a href="">according to The Daily Mail</a>, is a <strong>member of a prominent northeast family close to Bill and Hillary Clinton</strong>.</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 425px;" /></a></p> <p>Puopolo reportedly admitted to posting a video to Twitter, under his handle @JesusChrist1701, saying: <em><strong>&quot;Yes, I will be at the review stand at the inauguration and I am going to kill President-elect Trump... what are you gonna do about it Secret Service?&quot;</strong></em></p> <blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en"><a href="">@SecretService</a> VIDEO THREAT NOW 1809H TRUMP DEAD <a href=""></a></p> <p>&mdash; LORD JESUS CHRIST (@jesuschrist1701) <a href="">January 16, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//" charset="utf-8"></script><p>And was arrested and charged after leaving a Washington Avenue Subway sandwich shop on Tuesday afternoon.</p> <p><u><strong>However,<a href=""> as The Mail notes</a>, Puopolo is not your average Never-Trump&#39;r...</strong></u></p> <p>He once <strong>gave $20,000 to the Democratic National Committee,</strong> has learned.</p> <p><strong>Suspect Dominic Puopolo Jr., 51, sat near Hillary Clinton when she delivered the eulogy at the funeral of Puopolo&#39;s mother, Sonia, </strong>who died in one of the jets that flew into the World Trade Center on 9-11.</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 1006px;" /></a></p> <p>He once posted a photo of himself holding an image of his mother in front of a wall that sports a<strong> picture of him with Colin Powell and a famous shot of Ronald Reagan.</strong> Puopolo has published a number of pictures of outgoing Secretary of State<strong> John Kerry, whom he calls a friend.</strong></p> <p><em>According to news archives his mother, Sonia Mercedes Morales Puopolo was married to the wealthy Nantucket businessman Dominic J. Puopolo Sr. However, Sonia was among 92 people on American Airlines Flight 11 on Sept. 11, 2001, when it crashed into the World Trade Center&#39;s north tower in New York City. In an amazing twist of fate, Ground Zero cleanup crews recovered the wedding ring that Sonia&#39;s husband had given her 40 years earlier. The suspect&#39;s sister, Miami resident Sonia Tita Puopolo, wrote a book in 2010 about the ring called Sonia&#39;s Ring: 11 Ways To Heal Your Heart, Miracles Do Happen, and even ended up on Ellen DeGeneres&#39; show to discuss it.</em></p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 441px;" /></a></p> <p><em>Dominic Puopolo posted this picture of President Clinton with <strong>his sister Sonia (left) and his mother Sonia,</strong> who was killed in one of the planes that flew into the World Trade Center</em></p> <p><strong>The family is also known in political circles for its generosity toward Democratic organizations and candidates.</strong></p> <p>The threat suspect, according to federal elections records, gave $20,000 to the Democratic National Committee in 1996. He also contributed to Kerry and deceased Sen. Ted Kennedy in the mid-1990s. His name popped up again in contributions in 2006 when he gave $4,000 to Florida Sen. Bill Nelson&#39;s campaign.</p> <p><strong>His sister Sonia gave $4,000 to Hillary Clinton&#39;s various campaigns.</strong></p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 536px;" /></a></p> <p><strong>In Miami, meanwhile, Dom Puopolo was arrested four times for petty crimes since 2006</strong>, twice for petty theft and once for defrauding an innkeeper.</p> <p><a href=""><em>Read more here...</em></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="616" height="468" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> American people of German descent Bill Clinton Climate change skepticism and denial Democratic National Committee Donald Trump Donald Trump Florida Hillary Clinton John Kerry Miami Beach police Nationality New York City Politics Rodham family Secret Service The Apprentice Twitter Twitter United States World Trade WWE Hall of Fame Thu, 19 Jan 2017 10:13:32 +0000 Tyler Durden 585813 at What Can Americans Learn from Chinese Government Propaganda? <p><a href=""><em>Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,</em></a></p> <p><em><a href=""><img height="346" src="" width="600" /></a></em></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong><em>Under the relentless thrust of accelerating over-population and increasing over-organization, and by means of ever more effective methods of mind-manipulation, the democracies will change their nature; the quaint old forms&mdash;elections, parliaments, Supreme Courts and all the rest&mdash;will remain. The underlying substance will be a new kind of non-violent totalitarianism. All the traditional names, all the hallowed slogans will remain exactly what they were in the good old days. Democracy and freedom will be the theme of every broadcast and editorial&mdash;but Democracy and freedom in a strictly Pickwickian sense. Meanwhile the ruling oligarchy and its highly trained elite of soldiers, policemen, thought-manufacturers and mind-manipulators will quietly run the show as they see fit.</em></strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ndash; From Aldous Huxley&rsquo;s,&nbsp;<strong><a href="" target="_blank">Brave New World Revisited</a></strong>, published 1958</p> </blockquote> <p>We live in a world like no other in human history. We&rsquo;re <strong>mercilessly&nbsp;bombarded by intense and sophisticated propaganda virtually 24/7</strong>, whether it be from government officials, media outlets or multi-national corporations with endless budgets. The barrage is relentless, and unless you feel like ditching it all&nbsp;and moving into&nbsp;a cave, pretty much inescapable.<em><strong> For those of us&nbsp;dedicated to living on the outside, the only offense is a good defense, and a good defense requires understanding.</strong></em></p> <p>Most of us assume that for propaganda to be most effective it must remain undetected by its&nbsp;intended victims. While this is true on some level, it&rsquo;s also an unsophisticated understanding of how this stuff really works here in the U.S. on&nbsp;a far more clever and pernicious level.</p> <p>To get a deeper understanding, I want to highlight a few passages from an excellent article published at <em>CounterPunch</em> titled,&nbsp;<a href="" rel="bookmark" target="_blank">Why Ridiculous Official Propaganda Still Works</a>:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><em>Chief among the common misconceptions about the way official propaganda works is the notion that its goal is to deceive the public into believing things that are not &ldquo;the truth&rdquo; (that Trump is a Russian agent, for example, or that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction, or that the terrorists hate us for our freedom, et cetera). However, while official propagandists are definitely pleased if anyone actually believes whatever lies they are selling, deception is not their primary aim.</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><strong>The primary aim of official propaganda is to generate an &ldquo;official narrative&rdquo; that can be mindlessly repeated by the ruling classes and those who support and identify with them.</strong> This official narrative does not have to make sense, or to stand up to any sort of serious scrutiny. Its factualness is not the point. The point is to draw a Maginot line, a defensive ideological boundary, between &ldquo;the truth&rdquo; as defined by the ruling classes and any other &ldquo;truth&rdquo; that contradicts their narrative.</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>Imagine this Maginot line as a circular wall surrounded by inhospitable territory. Inside the wall is &ldquo;normal&rdquo; society, gainful employment, career advancement, and all the other considerable benefits of cooperating with the ruling classes. Outside the wall is poverty, anxiety, social and professional stigmatization, and various other forms of suffering. Which side of the wall do you want to be on? Every day, in countless ways, each of us are asked and have to answer this question. Conform, and there&rsquo;s a place for you inside. Refuse, and &hellip; well, good luck out there.</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>In openly despotic societies, the stakes involved in making this choice (to conform or dissent) are often life and death. In our relatively liberal Western societies (for those of us who are not militant guerillas), the consequences of not conforming to the official narrative are usually subtler. Despite that, the pressure is still intense. Conforming to the consensus &ldquo;reality&rdquo; generated by these official narratives is price of admission to the inner sanctum, where the jobs, money, professional prestige, and the other rewards of Capitalism are.&nbsp;Conforming does not require belief. It requires allegiance and rote obedience.&nbsp;What one actually believes is completely irrelevant, as long as one parrots the official narrative.</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>In short, official propaganda is not designed to deceive the public (no more than the speeches in an actor&rsquo;s script are intended to deceive the actor who speaks them). It is designed to be absorbed and repeated, no matter how implausible or preposterous it might be. <strong>Actually, it is often most effective when those who are forced to robotically repeat it know that it is utter nonsense, as the humiliation of having to do so cements their allegiance to the ruling classes</strong> (this phenomenon being a standard feature of the classic Stockholm Syndrome model, and authoritarian conditioning generally).</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>The point of all this propaganda is to delegitimize Donald Trump, and to prophylactically reassert the neoliberal ruling classes&rsquo; monopoly on power, &ldquo;reality,&rdquo; and &ldquo;truth.&rdquo; In case this wasn&rsquo;t already abundantly clear, the neoliberal ruling classes have no intention of giving up control of the global capitalist pseudo-empire they&rsquo;ve been working to establish these last sixty years. <strong>They&rsquo;re going to delegitimize and stigmatize Trump (and any other symbol of nationalist backlash or resistance to transnational Capitalism), bide their time for the next four years, and then install another of their loyal servants</strong> &hellip; after which life will go back to &ldquo;normal,&rdquo; and liberals will do their best to forget this unfortunate period where they pretended to believe this insipid neo-McCarthyite nonsense.</em></p> </blockquote> <p>That&rsquo;s the first point about the complexities of propaganda I want to highlight today, but it&rsquo;s not the only one. The second example comes from the Chinese government, as outlined in a post published at <em>Marginal Revolution</em> titled,&nbsp;<a href="" target="_blank">Authoritarians Distract Rather than Debate</a>. Here&rsquo;s what we learned:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><em>It&rsquo;s long been known that the Chinese government hires people to support the government with fabricated posts on social media. In China these people are known as the&nbsp;&ldquo;50c party&rdquo;, so called because the posters were rumored to be paid 50 cents (5 jiao or about $.08) to write the posts. The precise nature and extent of the 50c party has heretofore been unknown. But in an&nbsp;<a href="" target="_blank">amazing new paper</a>,&nbsp;Gary King, Jennifer Pan and Margaret Roberts (KPR) uncover a lot of new information using statistical sleuthing and some unusual and controversial real world sleuthing.</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>KPR&rsquo;s data-lever is an archive of leaked emails from the Propaganda Office of Zhanggong. The archive included many 50c&nbsp;posters who were sending links and screenshots of their posts to the central office as evidence of their good work. Using these posts, KPR&nbsp;are able to trace the posters though many social media accounts and discover who the posters are and what they are posting about. Both pieces of information reveal surprises.</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><strong>First, the posters are government workers paid on salary not, as the 50c phrase suggests, piece-rate workers. Second, and more importantly, it has long been assumed that propaganda posts would support the government with praise or criticize critics of the government. Not so. In fact, propaganda posts actively steer away from controversial issues. Instead, the effort appears to be to distract (especially to distract the people from organizing collective action; thus distraction campaigns peak around times and places where collective action like marches and protests might become focal).</strong> KPR write:</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>Distraction is a clever and useful strategy in information control in that an argument in almost any human discussion is rarely an effective way to put an end to an opposing argument. Letting an argument die, or changing the subject, usually works much better than picking an argument and getting someone&rsquo;s back up&hellip;</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>Debate is about appealing to an individual&rsquo;s reason; debate is thus implicitly individualistic, respectful of rights and epistemically egalitarian. (As I&nbsp;<a href="" target="_blank">argued earlier</a>,<strong> respect for the truth is tied to individualism because&nbsp;any&nbsp;person may have truth and reason on their side.) Authoritarians&nbsp;don&rsquo;t care about these things and so they lie and distract with impunity and without shame.</strong> In this case, the distraction is done subtly.</em></p> </blockquote> <p>If you come away from the above with the conclusion&nbsp;&ldquo;good thing we aren&rsquo;t China,&rdquo; you aren&rsquo;t thinking hard enough. We live in a world in which eight men own as much wealth as the bottom 50%. This is clearly not a stable world, so how is it kept in place by those in power against the best interests of so many? Distraction is certainly a huge part of it.</p> <p><strong>Distraction can take many forms of course.</strong> A particularly noxious way to distract people is to make sure you work them to death. People who work two jobs and still need foodstamps to survive will be so demoralized and exhausted, staying informed about the world around them becomes nearly impossible, let alone being part of any sort of organized popular movement. <em><strong>For those who do have free time to be productive members of society there&rsquo;s an overabundance&nbsp;of sports, video games, TMZ, and reality tv. Distraction is an essential part of keeping this destructive, predatory society intact, and in order to break free, it&rsquo;s essential we understand this&nbsp;and adjust our behavior wherever and whenever possible.</strong></em></p> <p><em>If you enjoyed this post, and want to contribute to genuine, independent media, consider&nbsp;visiting Liberty Blitzkrieg&#39;s <a href="" target="_blank">Support&nbsp;Page</a>.</em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="720" height="415" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Behavior China Chinese government Communication Deception Donald Trump Lie Media manipulation Political communication Politics Poster Propaganda Propaganda office of Zhanggong Public opinion Reality Totalitarianism Visual arts Thu, 19 Jan 2017 10:00:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 585819 at Tucker Carlson Cucks Huffington Post Contributor Alex Mohajer So Mercilessly He's Forced To Disavow Journalism <p>Bloodless gladiator Tucker Carlson delivered&nbsp;a&nbsp;cucking of&nbsp;such epic proportions&nbsp;that the guest had to append&nbsp;his recent anti-Trump HuffPo article&nbsp;with a disclaimer!</p> <p><img src="" alt="ec6002caea1f946484d396589ed792ca" width="300" height="168" style="float: right;" class="size-medium wp-image-5276 alignright" />Alex Mohajer&nbsp;is a&nbsp;self described "<a href="" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #0066cc;">Political writer and commentator</span></span></a> for Huffington Post" and founder of "<a href="" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #0066cc;">Bros4America</span></span></a>,"&nbsp;a 36,000 member former Hillary&nbsp;Clinton PAC which "lobbies and supports progressive policies and candidates...&nbsp; through social media outreach, volunteerism, fundraising, and by <strong>creating original video and digital content</strong>."</p> <p>Mohajer recently wrote an article in the Huffington Post which went viral&nbsp;entitled "<em>The Legitimate President</em>" with the sub-headline (<a href="" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #0066cc;">which he's altered since publication</span></span></a>):</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <table style="width: 495px; height: 1px; padding-left: 30px;" border="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td>“<strong>The evidence is clear</strong>. Hillary Clinton is the rightful president-elect, and courts must use the broad discretionary powers with which they are vested to enjoin an illegitimate president from taking office</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </blockquote> <p>It's your typical "muh popular vote" tantrum with&nbsp;the added twist of&nbsp;desperate&nbsp;"evidence" attempting to illustrate why Trump is illegitimate.&nbsp;When Tucker&nbsp;calls Mohajer out for citing a garbage source, shit gets real. As Mohajer continues to stammer out bits and pieces of Democrat&nbsp;talking points,&nbsp;Carlson exclaims: "You don't have a point... your point is stupid!"</p> <p>It looks like the editors at the Huffington Post agreed - as the&nbsp;<em>Clinton PAC founder</em> (professional shill) added this little update to his hit-piece:</p> <p><a href="" target="_blank"><img src="" alt="notajournalista" width="841" height="764" style="margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; display: block;" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5272" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Video here:</p> <div class="wpview-wrap"> <p class="wpview-selection-before">&nbsp;</p> <div class="wpview-body"> <div class="wpview-content wpview-type-embedURL"><iframe src="" width="618" height="348" frameborder="0"></iframe></div> </div> <p class="wpview-selection-after">&nbsp;</p> </div> <p>Stupid, you say?</p> <div class="wpview-wrap"> <p class="wpview-selection-before">&nbsp;</p> <div class="wpview-body"> <div class="wpview-content wpview-type-embedURL" style="text-align: center;"><iframe src="" width="618" height="464" frameborder="0"></iframe></div> </div> <p class="wpview-selection-after" style="text-align: center;">&nbsp;</p> <p class="wpview-selection-after" style="text-align: center;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 13px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; text-align: center; line-height: inherit; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit;"><em>Content originally generated at<span>&nbsp;</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #ff6600; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; vertical-align: baseline; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit;">*</strong></span><span>&nbsp;</span>Follow on Twitter @ZeroPointNow</em></span></span></p> </div> Aircraft AOL Donald Trump presidential campaign Ghods Mohajer Hillary Clinton Politics Politics of the United States Progressivism in the United States Rodham family Stop Trump movement The Huffington Post Twitter Twitter United States World Wide Web Thu, 19 Jan 2017 09:41:57 +0000 ZeroPointNow 585841 at DaVoS 2017... <p><a href="" title="MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN"><img src="" alt="MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN" width="1024" height="773" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <script src="//"></script><p><a href="" title="WORLD ECONOMIC FRAUD"><img src="" alt="WORLD ECONOMIC FRAUD" width="1024" height="590" /></a></p> <script src="//"></script> Baseball Hall of Fame balloting Davos Education Politics Thu, 19 Jan 2017 09:39:29 +0000 williambanzai7 585840 at "Dull Draghi" - What Wall Street Expects From The ECB <p>While ECB President Mario Draghi may sound slightly hawkish at Thursday’s press conference after an unexpectedly strong acceleration in CPI in December and European economic growth modestly picking up, the ECB is set to argue on Thursday that its extra-easy policy stance is still needed to keep the recovery on course. As a result, it is all but certain to leave current monetary policy in place and maintain a promise for lengthy stimulus, having extended its bond-buying program just last month coupled with the tapering (just don't call it a taper) of its bond purchases this year.</p> <p>ECB President Mario Draghi can argue the bank has done its part to mend growth, but he will also note the recovery is not self-sustaining, underlying inflation is weak and political risk from key elections weighs on the outlook. So turning down the ECB taps now is inappropriate, he is expected to say.</p> <p>According to <a href="">Reuters</a>, on the face of it, Draghi should be relaxed. Inflation hit a three year high of 1.1% last month (the ECB expects it to hit 1.7% in 2019), manufacturing activity is accelerating and confidence indicators are firming, all pointing to solid growth at the end of last year. Additionally, euro zone business growth was the fastest in more than five years in December, order books are surging on export demand, and consumption is holding up, despite rising energy costs, all pointing to the sort of resilience not seen since before the bloc's debt crisis. Of course, it could all be transitory as the "Trump" effect shifts to Europe, but the answr won't be known for a few more months. </p> <p>So what does Wall Street expect? According to a Bloomberg survey, the ECB will wait until at least its meeting on Sept. 7 to announce any new policy measures As a result, Bofa strategists expect Draghi to sound “as dull as possible” to keep the message sent at the previous meeting intact. Confirming this, ECB’s Yves Mersch said on Jan. 6 that improving euro-area economic numbers and a faster-than-forecast inflation pickup aren’t enough to warrant an immediate shift in the policy.</p> <p><em>Here is a summary breakdown of select outlooks:</em></p> <p><strong>BofAML (Athanasios Vamvakidis, Gilles Moec)</strong></p> <ul> <li>Draghi will endeavor to be as dull as possible, so as not to generate too many expectations on any further change in stance any time soon</li> <li>Any deviation from the December message on the inflation outlook and/or further delay in the implementation of the new QE parameters would create scope for bonds to underperform current forwards</li> <li>Risk for euro small and balanced; any hawkish statements that strengthen the euro during the Q&amp;A could be an opportunity to sell EUR/USD again</li> </ul> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>JPMorgan (strategists including Fabio Bassi)</strong></span></p> <ul> <li>Don’t expect the ECB meeting to break much new ground; ECB will likely express satisfaction at the improvements in the growth and inflation outlook, at the same time stressing that there is no reason to think about tapering more quickly than the Dec. announcement</li> </ul> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>NatWest Markets (Anna Tokar, Giles Gale)</strong></span></p> <ul> <li>Unlikely to give significant new clues to the ECB’s reaction function</li> <li>Since the Dec. meeting, data has been solid; expect the Council’s economic assessment may be slightly more optimistic, in line with the assessment of the Eurozone growth outlook</li> <li>However, policy debate should be unchanged and simply reference the decisions taken in Dec</li> </ul> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Citi (strategists including Harvinder Sian)</strong></span></p> <ul> <li>Meeting is too close to the policy moves enacted last month to warrant a material shift in ECB tone, even if data has been more buoyant than expected</li> <li>Any change to the reference of growth risks being to the downside will have to await more data and perhaps even clarity on the new U.S. administration’s policies</li> <li>Think that any further tapering risk starts from June meetings onwards, but the rise in oil prices and a drop in euro could see markets re-price from the March staff forecasts</li> <li>Expect some focus on the 33% issue limit, with Draghi likely to repeat that there are legal issues in up- sizing the issuer limit on legal grounds; many investors don’t believe the limit is a hard line in the sand –- despite the fact Portuguese and Irish bond valuations already reflect a less supportive ECB backdrop</li> </ul> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>UniCredit (economist Marco Valli)</strong></span></p> <ul> <li>ECB President Draghi will sound constructive, but dovish</li> <li>He will probably acknowledge that risks in the short term are moving toward faster-than-expected headline inflation and more balanced growth assessment</li> <li>Also expects Draghi to emphasize that uncertainty remains elevated and the medium-term outlook hasn’t changed much from last month</li> <li>ECB still wants financial conditions to remain very loose</li> </ul> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Deutsche Bank (strategists including Francis Yared)</strong></span></p> <ul> <li>Next step for the ECB should be to shift to a neutral stance by removing reference that rates may go lower in the introductory statement; may be too early to do so in Jan. meeting, but the overall tone of the press conference should suggest that the policy stance is evolving in that direction</li> </ul> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>ING (Carsten Brzeski)</strong></span></p> <ul> <li>The December decision has put the ECB on autopilot at least until the summer and until after the Dutch and French elections. This autopilot should also immunize the ECB against short-term volatility in macro data.</li> </ul> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Commerzbank</strong></span></p> <ul> <li>The lending channel is no longer clogged up, but it is not completely free either and progress has only been possible thanks to massive measures by the ECB. If monetary policy were to be tightened again, and the burdens from existing loans were to increase once more, the lending channel would close and the economic picture would worsen considerably again.</li> </ul> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1280" height="853" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Benoît Cœuré Bond Business Central banks CPI Deutsche Bank Economy Economy of the European Union Euro Eurogroup Europe European Central Bank European Central Bank European Union Eurozone Eurozone Group of Thirty Mario Draghi Monetary Policy Monetary policy Open market operation recovery Reuters US Administration Volatility Thu, 19 Jan 2017 09:25:06 +0000 Tyler Durden 585816 at "It's Probably Nothing..." <p>As Donald Trump's inauguration looms ever closer, the last few days have seen the honeymoon in markets starting to fade as the reality of <strong>economic policy uncertainty suddenly seems to matter again</strong>. </p> <p>If the past 20 years of global historical data is anything to go by,<em><strong> that 'awakening' of uncertainty is very bad news...</strong></em></p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="600" height="313" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>But, as your friendly local asset-gatherer will tell you - <strong><em>"it's probably nothing" </em></strong>and "the market is not the economy."</p> <p>Even Janet Yellen is starting to notice...</p> <ul> <li><strong>YELLEN: IT'S IMPORTANT TO TAKE UNCERTAINTY INTO ACCOUNT</strong></li> </ul> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="965" height="503" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> American people of German descent Business Climate change skepticism and denial Conservatism in the United States Donald Trump Epistemology Janet Yellen Janet Yellen Politics of the United States Reality The Apprentice Uncertainty WWE Hall of Fame Yellen Thu, 19 Jan 2017 09:15:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 585762 at UN Reports Death Toll In US-Sponsored Yemen War Reaches 10,000 <p><a href=""><em>Submitted by via,</em></a></p> <p>A UN envoy held talks with Yemen&rsquo;s President Abd Rabbuh Hadi on Monday as the <a href="">United Nations said</a> <strong>the death toll from the war had reached 10,000.</strong></p> <p><a href=""><strong><img alt="" src="" style="width: 599px; height: 305px;" /></strong></a></p> <p>The envoy, Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed, was in Aden for the meeting that<strong> focused on a return to a ceasefire and to political talks to end the nearly two-year war.</strong></p> <p>The talks came as fighting in the southern Shabwa area on Monday reportedly killed 34 people and wounded 16 others during clashes between Houthi fighters and pro-government forces.</p> <p>The United Nations said the civilian death toll in fighting since a Saudi-led force intervened in March 2015 had reached 10,000, <strong>up from the previous figure of 7,000.</strong></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>The Saudi-led coalition has been blamed for most of the civilian casualties. <strong>The devastation has also drawn attention to the role of western powers who have continued to provide Riyadh with weapons, logistical support and intelligence.</strong> The Houthis have also been accused of human rights violations.</p> </blockquote> <p>The higher toll &ldquo;underscores the need to resolve the situation in Yemen without any further delay&rdquo;, said UN spokesman Farhan Haq in New York. <strong>&ldquo;There is a huge humanitarian cost.&rdquo;</strong></p> <p>Jamie McGoldrick, humanitarian coordinator of the UN Development Programme, said the latest death toll is based on lists of victims gathered by hospitals and the true figure could be higher.</p> <p><strong>McGoldrick said up to 10 million Yemenis were also in urgent need of humanitarian assistance.</strong></p> <p>Ould Cheikh Ahmed is hoping to revive peace prospects in Yemen after Hadi rejected his proposed roadmap. He is due to report to the UN Security Council later this month.</p> <p>The roadmap provides for a new unity government in Yemen and a rebel withdrawal from the capital and other cities.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>&ldquo;A peace agreement, including a well-articulated security plan and the formation of an inclusive government, is the only way to end the war that has fuelled the development of terrorism in Yemen and the region,&rdquo;</strong> Ould Cheikh Ahmed said in a statement.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;I asked the president to act swiftly and engage constructively with the UN&rsquo;s proposal for the sake of the country&rsquo;s future.&rdquo;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;<strong>The current political stalemate is causing death and destruction every day.</strong> The only way to stop this is through the renewal of the cessation of hostilities followed by consultations to develop a comprehensive agreement.&rdquo;</p> </blockquote> <p>Under the proposal, Hadi&rsquo;s powers would be dramatically diminished in favour of a new vice president who would oversee the formation of the interim government that will lead a transition to elections.</p> <p>Houthi rebels and forces loyal to former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, who control the capital, Sanaa, have faced a military campaign by the Saudi-led coalition to restore President Hadi as the recognised government.</p> <p><strong>The campaign has been unable to dislodge the Houthis from the capital and their strongholds in the north of the country and has been criticized for causing widespread civilian casualties and destruction of infrastructure.</strong></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="717" height="365" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi Ali Abdullah Saleh Asia Houthi Houthis Islam Military history by country Politics Saudi Arabian-led intervention in Yemen U.N. Security Council UN Development Programme United Nations War Yemen Yemeni Civil War Yemeni Crisis Thu, 19 Jan 2017 08:30:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 585766 at Here's How Google Tracks You (And What You Can Do About It) <p><strong>Ever get the feeling you&rsquo;re being watched?</strong></p> <p><strong>It&rsquo;s because you are</strong> &ndash; and, <a href="">as Visual Capitalist&#39;s Jeff Desjardins details</a>, for a rough proxy of this, use the browser extension&nbsp;<a href="">Ghostery</a>&nbsp;to see how many tracking scripts are watching you on a typical media site.<em> (It doesn&rsquo;t work for everything, but a large media site like&nbsp;<a href=""></a>&nbsp;has 50+ trackers, with 40 of them focused on advertising).</em></p> <p>Capturing this user data helps sites sell their inventory to advertisers, but a select few companies operate in this capacity at a whole different level. <strong>Google and Facebook are the best of examples of this, as nearly&nbsp;<a href="">$0.60 of every dollar spent</a>&nbsp;on digital advertising goes to them.</strong> They both have the sophistication and ubiquity to capture incredible amounts of information about you.</p> <p><strong><u>GOOGLE IS EVERYWHERE</u></strong></p> <p>Today&rsquo;s infographic, which comes to us from&nbsp;<a href="">Mylio</a>, focuses in on Google in particular.</p> <div style="clear:both"><a href=""><img src="" style="border-width: 0px; border-style: solid; height: 3179px; width: 600px;" /></a></div> <div><em>Courtesy of: <a href="">Visual Capitalist</a></em></div> <p><strong>The search giant is massive in size, and there is a good chance you tap into Googleverse in some way:</strong></p> <ul> <li> <p>Global market penetration for Android is 61-81%.</p> </li> <li> <p>Google has a 78.8% market share for online search.</p> </li> <li> <p>The company generates $67.4 billion in annual ad revenue.</p> </li> <li> <p>Google processes two trillion searches annually.</p> </li> <li> <p>30-50 million websites use Google Analytics to for tracking.</p> </li> <li> <p>There are 700,000 apps available in the Google Play store.</p> </li> <li> <p>82% of videos watched online come from YouTube.</p> </li> <li> <p>In total, Google has at least 79 products and services.</p> </li> </ul> <p>According to Google&rsquo;s documentation, it uses these services to pull out information on the &ldquo;things you do&rdquo;, &ldquo;things you create&rdquo;, and the things that make you unique.</p> <p><u><strong>SEE WHAT GOOGLE COLLECTS</strong></u></p> <p>All in all, Google tracks your activity history, location history, audio history, and device history. It also builds a profile for you for serving ads &ndash; age, gender, location, income, and other demographic data.</p> <p>You can view and actually download this history by using a tool called&nbsp;<a href="">Google Takeout</a>.</p> <p><strong><em>Many people understand that their data helps support advertising revenues on websites they enjoy. Others are rightly concerned about their privacy, and how their information is used. Regardless of which category you fit in, becoming informed about how privacy on the internet works will help you craft an experience that best fits your preferences.</em></strong></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1034" height="475" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Alphabet Inc. Business Computing Firefox add-ons G Suite Ghostery Ghostery, Inc. Google Google Google Chrome extensions Internet privacy Market Share Online advertising Opera Software Software Technology World Wide Web Thu, 19 Jan 2017 07:45:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 585768 at