http://www.zerohedge.com/fullrss2.xml/component/option%2Ccom_docman/itemid%2C200023/gid%2C397/boombustblog/boombustblog/boombustblog/boombustblog/2009/2009/07/2009/2009/2009/07/2009/07/2009/2009/07/2009/2009/07/2009/2009/07/2009/2009/07/2009/2009/200 en 15 Shocking Videos Expose The Reality Of Surviving The California Wildfires http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-16/15-shocking-videos-expose-reality-surviving-california-wildfires <p><a href="http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/california-wildfires-10162017"><em>Authored by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,</em></a></p> <p><strong>The Northern California wildfires are fast-moving, unpredictable, and for some, unsurvivable. </strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/15/20171016_fires.jpg"><strong><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/15/20171016_fires_0.jpg" style="width: 560px; height: 293px;" /></strong></a></p> <p>The videos below will show you what it&rsquo;s really like, trying to survive an ever-changing inferno&hellip;and why you shouldn&rsquo;t wait for the official evacuation order.</p> <p><strong>A lot of folks have been critical, saying blithely, &ldquo;They knew there was a fire. They should have evacuated.&rdquo; It&rsquo;s important to understand that it doesn&rsquo;t always work like that with wildfires. Armchair quarterbacking is easy. Fleeing when the car your driving literally <em>catches on fire</em> and the smoke is blinding you is not.</strong></p> <p>First of all, fires move rapidly. You can be in no danger whatsoever and just see a fire on the distant horizon, and then minutes later, it&rsquo;s at your back door. Secondly, they change courses. Many times, the fire gets ahold of some new fuel &ndash; like a home, tall grass, or trees, and the course veers in that direction. Finally, high winds have propelled these fires rapidly and fanned them to new heights. Every fall, California has something called the &ldquo;Diablo Winds.&rdquo; These are seasonal gusts that can reach as high as 80 mph and cause extremely high fire danger. When coupled with existing fires, it&rsquo;s nothing less than the perfect storm.</p> <p><a href="http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/636433280932599109-101017-santa-ana-winds.png"><img alt="" class="size-full wp-image-12912 aligncenter" sizes="(max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px" src="http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/636433280932599109-101017-santa-ana-winds.png" srcset="http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/636433280932599109-101017-santa-ana-winds.png 540w, <a href="http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/636433280932599109-101017-santa-ana-winds-126x150.png" title="http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/636433280932599109-101017-santa-ana-winds-126x150.png" />http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/6364332809325...</a> 126w, <a href="http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/636433280932599109-101017-santa-ana-winds-252x300.png" title="http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/636433280932599109-101017-santa-ana-winds-252x300.png">http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/6364332809325...</a> 252w, <a href="http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/636433280932599109-101017-santa-ana-winds-55x65.png" title="http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/636433280932599109-101017-santa-ana-winds-55x65.png">http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/6364332809325...</a> 55w, <a href="http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/636433280932599109-101017-santa-ana-winds-269x320.png" title="http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/636433280932599109-101017-santa-ana-winds-269x320.png">http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/6364332809325...</a> 269w, <a href="http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/636433280932599109-101017-santa-ana-winds-84x100.png" title="http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/636433280932599109-101017-santa-ana-winds-84x100.png">http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/6364332809325...</a> 84w, <a href="http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/636433280932599109-101017-santa-ana-winds-101x120.png" title="http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/636433280932599109-101017-santa-ana-winds-101x120.png">http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/6364332809325...</a> 101w, <a href="http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/636433280932599109-101017-santa-ana-winds-265x315.png" title="http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/636433280932599109-101017-santa-ana-winds-265x315.png">http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/6364332809325...</a> 265w, <a href="http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/636433280932599109-101017-santa-ana-winds-143x170.png" title="http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/636433280932599109-101017-santa-ana-winds-143x170.png">http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/6364332809325...</a> 143w, <a href="http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/636433280932599109-101017-santa-ana-winds-336x400.png" title="http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/636433280932599109-101017-santa-ana-winds-336x400.png">http://www.theorganicprepper.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/6364332809325...</a> 336w" style="width: 560px; height: 667px;" /></p> <p>October is often the worst month of the year for wildfires in California. Not only is it the time when the Diablo winds (or Santa Ana winds in Southern California) kick up, but it&rsquo;s also the driest month. California has a long dry season. It isn&rsquo;t unusual to go without a single drop of rain from May through the end of October. Because of this, all the lush grass that grows during the spring rainy season is dried, crisp, and tragically perfect fuel.</p> <p><strong><em>In situations like this, there is often little to no warning before the fire is roaring through your property. The fire may be miles away and heading in the opposite direction one minute, then turn on a dime. Then suddenly, you find yourself directly in the path of an inferno. If you&rsquo;re lucky, you escape unscathed with your life but lose all your worldly possessions. Many people have not been lucky.</em></strong></p> <p>15 large wildfires are blazing through Northern California&rsquo;s wine country. 40 people are confirmed dead, hundreds are missing, more than a 100,000 have evacuated, and nearly 6000 homes and businesses have been completely burned to the ground. Thus far, the damage estimate is more than 3 billion dollars.</p> <h3>The following videos and stories show you what the Northern California wildfires are really like.</h3> <p>This video is shot from a fire engine from Berkeley, California on the day Santa Rosa burned. It gives you the firefighters&rsquo; firsthand view of the destruction and the speed with which it was wrought.</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Rdk4d74j3p8" width="640"></iframe></p> <p>This video shows the utter devastation from the wildfires and includes clips of people escaping with only their lives.</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/opVz7HZAXLo" width="640"></iframe></p> <p>These two roommates left with their dogs as the fire jumped the hill behind their home, narrowly escaping death. (Strong language)</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/gdiakAuBxNA" width="640"></iframe></p> <p>This police officer&rsquo;s body camera shows the terrifying scene when he was helping people evacuate.</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/XdeJA-JBGFE" width="640"></iframe></p> <p>This couple described their escape as being like &ldquo;driving through hell.&rdquo;</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/olWNLyCStRA" width="640"></iframe></p> <p>This video shows multiple clips of people fleeing the blaze as embers rain down and the billowing smoke gets closer. They are trappd on the freeway in slow-moving traffic.</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/L3mGe-5FRT4" width="640"></iframe></p> <p>In one tragic story, a family tried to evacuate by car. Their car caught on fire and they had to take off on foot to try and outrun the blaze. They got separated in the smoke. A 14-year-old boy burned to death and the other members of the family are burned over more than half their bodies. The mother and daughter were found by a neighbor and the father was found by paramedics. (<a href="http://www.latimes.com/local/abcarian/la-me-abcarian-shepherd-family-20171014-story.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">source</a>)</p> <p>In a story with a happier ending, a farmer tried to evacuate his dogs but one refused to go. Odin, a Great Pyrenees, stayed with his herd of goats. The owners were positive they&rsquo;d never see their beloved dog again, but when they returned to the farm, they discovered a slightly singed Odin with every member of his herd unharmed. This very good boy had even picked up a few baby deer. (<a href="https://www.youcaring.com/odintessaandtheirfamilyofmisfitrescuegoats-978792" rel="noopener" target="_blank">source</a>)</p> <p>Haunting drone footage shows what Santa Rosa looks like after the fire.</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/zxFHMNtQ3zg" width="640"></iframe></p> <p>While I strongly recommend evacuating in a situation like this, one man stayed behind and managed to save his home and his neighbor&rsquo;s home from the wildfire.</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/U5-YBAsBvEg" width="640"></iframe></p> <p>Along the Napa/Sonoma border, these residents scrambled for safety and barely escaped with their lives. There were fires in all directions, blocking escape routes. People had to choose whether to drive through blinding smoke or flames.</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/5zgzYhckQ8c" width="640"></iframe></p> <p>This couple survived a wildfire they couldn&rsquo;t escape by taking refuge in a neighbor&rsquo;s swimming pool for SIX hours as the fire blazed all around them.</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cmjsYeCS77Y" width="640"></iframe></p> <p>Another couple who tried to take refuge in a pool was not so fortunate. The woman died in her husband&rsquo;s arms after 60 years of marriage.</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/DUj2hrFHKsU" width="640"></iframe></p> <p>This family&rsquo;s dog ran away in a panic and they had no option but to leave. They returned home, certain their beloved pup had perished, but then they found this:</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/5fFibvUvXi4" width="640"></iframe></p> <p>These interviews tell the stories of more narrow escapes.</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/-xcwSs3u3gU" width="640"></iframe></p> <p>This aerial footage gives you a better idea of what firefighters are dealing with during these widespread blazes.</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/HdRsqhjFcTg" width="640"></iframe></p> <p>More than eleven thousand firefighters are pushing themselves to the limits of their endurance to contain these fires, but they aren&rsquo;t able to directly respond and save people. As the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPxBgbxrejo" rel="noopener" target="_blank">mayor of Calistoga said in a press conference</a> to the few who opted to ignore evacuation orders, <strong>&ldquo;You will NOT be given life safety support at this point. You are on your own.&rdquo;</strong> Exhausted firefighters are grabbing moments of rest when they can.</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/otnDbTb-B00" width="640"></iframe></p> <p><strong>In some areas, civilians, farmers, and construction crews have taken a stand to protect their homes from the infernos.</strong></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p class="p-text">The story of the Capell Valley community is one that was repeated in neighborhoods and valleys across Northern California&rsquo;s wine country this week, as dry conditions and high winds fueled multiple fires in Sonoma, Napa, Yuba and Mendocino counties.</p> <p class="p-text">&nbsp;</p> <p class="p-text">It was not only firefighters who stood in the path of the blazes, but civilians too. Contractors, skilled construction workers and even former wildland firefighters came out of the woodwork to run bulldozers and drive multi-thousand gallon water tenders on twisty and damaged back roads.</p> <p>They picked up what tools and equipment they could and tried to save their neighborhoods&hellip;.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>This wasn&rsquo;t the first time Gil Pridmore had fought a fire in those hills. He spent years as the boss of a California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection bulldozer crew and fought the 1981 Atlas Peak Fire.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>He used this experience to help lead a team of 30 people to cut multiple layers of firelines on the rim of the valley.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>When flames would breach their lines and encroach on houses, the goal was to get the house &ldquo;in the black,&rdquo; or completely surrounded by burned areas so there was no fuel left to catch fire. (<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2017/10/16/california-fires-civilians-construction-crews-pitch-save-homes/766871001/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">source</a>)</p> </blockquote> <p>They managed to save all but one home in the valley.</p> <h3>A few things to learn from the California wildfires</h3> <p>There are lessons to be learned from these videos (and 5 years of living in fire-prone California.) Wildfires happen in other parts of the United States as well, and it&rsquo;s important to be prepared before the first spark.</p> <p>You need a fire kit in your vehicle at all times. Things to include:</p> <ul> <li><strong>Swimming goggles</strong>: This will protect your eyes and help keep you from being blinded by smoke</li> <li><strong>Respirator masks</strong>: This doesn&rsquo;t mean you will be able to breathe if the fire sucks all the oxygen from your environment, but it will help to filter out some of the smoke so you aren&rsquo;t disabled by a coughing fit.</li> <li><strong>Fire extinguisher</strong>: In a worst case scenario if your vehicle catches on fire, you may be able to put it out if you attack while the blaze is small.</li> <li><strong>Welding gloves</strong>: Remember the guy who burned his hands opening a gate? Welding gloves will offer some protection from hot surfaces.</li> </ul> <p>And here are some tips.</p> <ul> <li><strong>Do <em>not</em> wait for the official order</strong>: In some parts of Sonoma County, people are questioning why an evacuation alert never came. While officials do their best, YOU are the person who is responsible for your family&rsquo;s safety. (<a href="http://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Sonoma-County-officials-opted-not-to-send-mass-12271773.php" rel="noopener" target="_blank">source</a>)</li> <li><strong>Have more than one escape route</strong>: In situations like this, you will often find your escape route blocked. Have more than one way out. Figure these out ahead of time and now when you are fleeing for your life and blinded by smoke.</li> <li><strong>Evacuate large animals ahead of time.</strong> If possible, evacuate your livestock before the emergency becomes a crisis. In a situation like this, animals can be fearful and uncooperative. Get your livestock to safety first, because if you have to rush out like many of these families did, you&rsquo;ll have to leave them behind, helpless. I shared good news stories above, but a friend of mine in California went to help out with veterinary rescue. There are far more bad news stories.</li> <li><strong>Leash or crate pets early on:</strong> They will be affected by the same kind of panic. A normally well-behaved pet could rush off into danger, leaving you to make the choice to leave them behind or risk your family&rsquo;s lives trying to save them.</li> <li><strong>Grab your dirty clothes hampers:</strong> If you have time to grab a few things unless you have just done laundry, grab dirty clothes hampers. They&rsquo;re likely to have several days of clothing from the skin out, PJs, and socks, saving you time from searching for all those things individually.</li> <li><strong>Keep precious items and documents in one area:</strong> Make sure irreplaceable things are kept together. We have a decorative trunk near the door into which we can sweep precious mementos. Important documents are backed up in the Cloud, which means we don&rsquo;t have to spend time packing those.</li> </ul> <p><strong>The fires are beginning to be contained, and firefighters say they are gaining an edge. </strong>Two out of three of the most destructive fires are more than 50% contained. Some people in Sonoma will be allowed to return to their homes today &ndash; or what&rsquo;s left of them. Winds have lightened, but the weather will still be hot and dry until Thursday when there is a small chance of blessed rain. (<a href="https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/10/16/firefighters-gaining-edge-in-california-wildfires-that-have-killed-at-least-40/23244453/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">source</a>)</p> <p>I wish those in the affected areas the very best.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1183" height="620" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20171016_fires.jpg?1508188136" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-16/15-shocking-videos-expose-reality-surviving-california-wildfires#comments California Department of Forestry Disaster Ecological succession Fires Geography of California Natural disasters Northern California Occupational safety and health Reality Sand Fire Southern California Texas wildfires Wildfire Wildfire emergency management Tue, 17 Oct 2017 00:40:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 605428 at http://www.zerohedge.com HoLLYWooD…. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-16/hollywood%E2%80%A6 <p><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/YK-cvcw3ngM" width="853" height="480" frameborder="0"></iframe><br /> . </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/expd/37073927993/in/dateposted-public/" title="HOLLYWOOD"><img src="https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4506/37073927993_7cdc21d514_b.jpg" alt="HOLLYWOOD" width="1024" height="756" /></a></p> <script src="//embedr.flickr.com/assets/client-code.js"></script> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-16/hollywood%E2%80%A6#comments Baseball Hall of Fame balloting Education Politics Tue, 17 Oct 2017 00:30:29 +0000 williambanzai7 605442 at http://www.zerohedge.com North Korea Warns "Nuclear War Could Break Out At Any Moment" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-16/north-korean-diplomat-warns-un-general-assembly-nuclear-war-could-break-out-any-mome <p>Less than a day after South Korean and US naval forces kicked off their <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-16/us-deploys-special-forces-decapitation-team-south-korea">latest round of joint military drills</a>, which are slated to run until the end of the week, North Korea&rsquo;s deputy UN ambassador claimed during a fiery speech at the UN General Assembly that the Korean peninsula <strong>&ldquo;has reached the touch-and-go point and a nuclear war may break out any moment,&rdquo; </strong>the <a href="https://www.apnews.com/fe61b534c4cc49f6b940f8079a6af6d5/North-Korea-says-'a-nuclear-war-may-break-out-any-moment'">Associated Press</a> reported.</p> <p>Complaining to the UN General Assembly&rsquo;s disarmament committee, Kim In Ryong argued that North Korea is the only country in the world that has been subjected to &ldquo;such an extreme and direct nuclear threat&rdquo; from the United States since the 1970s, adding that the isolated North has the right to posses nuclear weapons in self-defense.</p> <p><strong>This latest warning arrives as the US and South Korea are bracing for another North Korean missile test. </strong>For weeks now, South Korean intelligence has suspected that its isolated neighbor could use the beginning of China&rsquo;s National Party Congress, which begins on Thursday, as an opportunity for what would be a bold act of defiance, angering both the US and the North&rsquo;s primary benefactor and only major ally, China. The North has also been threatening to unveil a new ICBM that intelligence services believe might be capable of striking the west coast. &nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/10/04/2017.10.16northkorea.JPG"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/10/04/2017.10.16northkorea_0.JPG" style="width: 500px; height: 222px;" /></a></p> <p>During his speech, Kim accused the US and South Korea of conducting military exercises involving &ldquo;nuclear assets&rdquo; and also mentioned a top-secret plan to stage a <strong>&ldquo;secret operation aimed at the removal of our supreme leadership&rdquo;</strong> developed by US and South Korean intelligence. The plan was exposed after North Korean hackers stole a large cache of military documents from the South.</p> <p>Boasting about the country&rsquo;s nuclear capabilities, Kim bragged that the North Korea had completed its &ldquo;state nuclear force and thus became the full-fledged nuclear power which possesses the delivery means of various ranges, including the atomic bomb, H-bomb and intercontinental ballistic rockets.&rdquo;</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>&ldquo;The entire U.S. mainland is within our firing range and if the U.S. dares to invade our sacred territory even an inch it will not escape our severe punishment in any part of the globe,&rdquo; </strong>he warned.</p> </blockquote> <p>The dangerous rhetoric comes as Russia &ndash; which was recently rumored to be ramping up economic support for the North &ndash; reversed course and said it would curtail economic, scientific and other ties with North Korea in line with UN sanctions</p> <p>Meanwhile, the European Union announced new sanctions on Pyongyang for developing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.</p> <p><strong>US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said Sunday that diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving the North Korean crisis &ldquo;will continue until the first bomb drops.&rdquo;</strong> His commitment to diplomacy came despite</p> <p>President Donald Trump&rsquo;s tweets several weeks ago that his chief envoy was &ldquo;wasting his time&rdquo; trying to negotiate with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, whom he derisively referred to as &ldquo;Little Rocket Man.&rdquo;</p> <p><strong>A report published by Russian media earlier today claiming that US and North Korean diplomats might be meeting at a conference in Moscow next week was quickly denied by the isolated country&rsquo;s government, </strong>which said it&rsquo;s not yet ready to begin negotiating with its greatest geopolitical foe.</p> <p>Kim also reiterated that North Korea considers its missile arsenal &ldquo;a precious strategic asset that cannot be reversed or bartered for anything.&rdquo;</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>&ldquo;Unless the hostile policy and the nuclear threat of the U.S. is thoroughly eradicated, we will never put our nuclear weapons and ballistic rockets on the negotiating table under any circumstances,&rdquo; </strong>Kim said.</p> </blockquote> <p>But in an interesting twist, Kim told the disarmament committee that while the Democratic People&rsquo;s Republic of Korea &mdash; North Korea&rsquo;s official name &mdash; would like to see nuclear weapons vanish from the face of the earth, aggressive expansion of nuclear arsenals has left the country no choice but to arm itself.</p> <p>By accelerating the modernization of its weapons, the US is <strong>&ldquo;reviving a nuclear arms race reminiscent of [the] Cold War era,&rdquo;</strong> Kim said. He also noted that the nuclear weapon states, including the United States, boycotted negotiations for the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons that was approved in July by 122 countries at the United Nations.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>&ldquo;The DPRK consistently supports the total elimination of nuclear weapons and the efforts for denuclearization of the entire world,&rdquo;</strong> he said.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>But as long as the United States rejects the treaty and &ldquo;constantly threatens and blackmails the DPRK with nuclear weapons ... the DPRK is not in position to accede to the treaty.&rdquo;</p> </blockquote> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="841" height="374" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017.10.16northkorea.JPG?1508198171" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-16/north-korean-diplomat-warns-un-general-assembly-nuclear-war-could-break-out-any-mome#comments Aftermath of the Korean War China Donald Trump European Union European Union Foreign relations Foreign relations of North Korea Government Government of North Korea International relations KIM Kim Jong-un Korean conflict National Party Congress North Korea North Korean missile test North Korea–South Korea relations Nuclear Power Nuclear program of North Korea Nuclear warfare Politics Rex Tillerson South Korean intelligence UN General Assembly United Nations War West Coast Tue, 17 Oct 2017 00:20:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 605437 at http://www.zerohedge.com Kobe Steel Scandal Goes Nuclear: Company Faked Data For Decades, Had A "Fraud Manual" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-16/kobe-steel-scandal-goes-nuclear-company-faked-data-decades-had-fraud-manual <p>Last week <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-10/kobe-steel-collapses-37-after-admitting-falsifying-data-could-destroy-international-">we reported </a>that in the latest instance of criminal Japanese corporate malfeasance, Japan's third-biggest steel producer admitted falsifying data about the quality of steel, aluminum, copper, iron powder and other products it sold to customers across virtually every single industry. The news sent the company's stock tumbling 43% from levels before the scandal broke, to the lowest price since 2012.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/10/14/2017-10-16%20%287%29.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/10/14/2017-10-16%20%287%29_0.jpg" width="500" height="265" /></a></p> <p>The downstream impact was quickly felt, with selling hitting names across the global supply chain...</p> <p><strong>&nbsp;</strong> </p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/09/20171010_kobe4.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/09/20171010_kobe4_0.jpg" width="501" height="247" /></a></p> <p>... while the NYT reported that the fallout has the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/10/business/kobe-steel-japan.html">potential to spread to hundreds of companies</a>. As of a week ago, the extent of the problems at Kobe Steel was still unfolding, and prompte the Nikkei newspaper to conclude that "the falsification problem has become an issue that could destroy international faith in Japanese manufacturing."</p> <p>Well, as of moments ago that tipping point was this much closer, when the same <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Japan-Update/Kobe-Steel-plants-faked-quality-data-for-decades?utm_source=NAR%20Newsletter&amp;utm_campaign=RN%20Subscriber%20newsletter&amp;utm_medium=JP%20update%20newsletter&amp;utm_content=article%20link">Nikkei reported </a>that some <strong>Kobe Steel plants in Japan had been falsifying product quality data for decades, well beyond the roughly 10-year time frame given by the lying steelmaker</strong>. According to the Japanese newspaper, "employees involved in the data manipulation used the industry term tokusai to refer to shipping of products that did not meet the standards requested by customers", the Nikkei source said. Though tokusai usually refers to voluntary acceptance of such products, plants sometimes sent substandard goods without customers' consent. <strong>The word was apparently in use at some plants for 40 to 50 years.</strong></p> <p>But wait, it gets better.</p> <p>Not only did the company, having already been caught, lie to shareholders and rule-abiding employees how long this illegal behavior had been going on, but - in a glaring example of corporate idiocy - had effectively enshrined and codified its fraudulent ways<strong>, as the cheating procedures eventually became institutionalized in what was essentially a tacit fraud manual, allowing the practice to continue as managers came and went. </strong></p> <p><strong></strong>Meanwhile, the Nikkei also reports that everyone could have been in on it, as <strong>data manipulation may have occurred with the knowledge of plant foremen and quality control managers. </strong>Some shipments even came with forged inspection certificates. </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Kobe Steel has tapped senior officials in the aluminum and copper business - where most of the misconduct took place - to serve on its board. How far up the chain of command knowledge of the fraud may have extended in the past remains an open question.</p> </blockquote> <p>According to the latest update, systemic data falsification took place at no less than four Japanese production sites and appears to have affected virtually every product made by the company: the scandal has spread to the manufacturer's mainstay steel business, <strong>with revelations Friday that steel wire was also shipped without inspection or with faked certificates. </strong>Meanwhile, the number of affected customers has swelled from around 200 to roughly 500.</p> <p>One can only imagine the "honesty", measured in alpha, beta and gamma radiation, if Kobe was also behind the Tepco nuclear disaster, where of course as we leaned over the past 6 years, the amount of data fabrication was just as unprecedented. It is almost as if there is something rather rotten with Japan's entrenched, corporate ways... </p> <p>But not to worry: in an amusing twist, Kobe Steel has promised it will complete safety inspections for already shipped products in two weeks or so. A report on the causes of the fraud and measures to prevent a recurrence will come out in a month or so; we can't wait to read the lies in that one. The steelmaker is conducting a groupwide probe that includes interviews with former senior officials. Because if there is anything Kobe will be successful at, it is diligent, honest self-reporting. </p> <p>Where the company is certainly lying however, is when it told analysts earlier on Monday that "liquidity is not an issue" according to Bloomberg. Judging by the explosion in Kobe Steel CDS in recent days...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/10/14/2017-10-16%20%288%29.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/10/14/2017-10-16%20%288%29_0.jpg" width="500" height="256" /></a></p> <p>... one more gaffe by the scandal-plagued company, and Kobe Steel will be insolvent. As for all those who are considering providing liquidity to this fraud of a company, good luck with <em>lying to yourselves </em>that you will ever see any of that money back.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="580" height="296" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/kobe%20steel.jpg?1508197567" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-16/kobe-steel-scandal-goes-nuclear-company-faked-data-decades-had-fraud-manual#comments Alpha Business Business CDS Copper Economy Economy of Japan Japan Kobe Kobe Steel Newspaper Nikkei radiation The Nikkei Tue, 17 Oct 2017 00:00:42 +0000 Tyler Durden 605438 at http://www.zerohedge.com Black Monday 2.0: The Next Machine-Driven Meltdown http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-16/black-monday-20-next-machine-driven-meltdown <p><a href="http://www.barrons.com/articles/black-monday-2-the-next-machine-driven-meltdown-1507956435?shareToken=sta34fcb09ee6a423fa9e0acc127844d01&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=sendto_newslettertest&amp;stream=top-stories"><em>Authord by Ben Levisohn via Barrons,</em></a></p> <p><strong>In the rise of computer-driven trading, some hear echoes of the stock market&rsquo;s 1987 crash. Beware the feedback loop...</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/15/20171016_feedback.jpg"><img height="377" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/15/20171016_feedback.jpg" width="572" /></a></p> <p>Black Monday. Although the event to which those two words refer occurred 30 years ago, they still carry the weight of that day&mdash;Oct. 19, 1987&mdash;when the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed nearly a quarter of its value in wave after wave of selling.</p> <p><strong>No one in living memory had seen anything like it, at least not in the U.S., and in the postmortems conducted to understand just how the Dow managed to drop 508 points in one day, experts found a culprit: so-called portfolio insurance, a quantitative tool designed to use futures contracts to protect against market losses. Instead, it created a poisonous feedback loop, as automated selling begat more of the same.</strong></p> <p>Since that day, markets have rallied and markets have tumbled, and still we marvel at the unintended consequences of what, in hindsight, was an obviously misguided strategy.</p> <p><strong>Yet in the ensuing years, market participants have come to rely increasingly on computers to run quantitative, rules-based systems known as algorithms to pick stocks, mitigate risk, place trades, bet on volatility, and much more - <u><em>and they bear a resemblance to those blamed for Black Monday.</em></u></strong></p> <p>The proliferation of computer-driven investing has created an illusion that risk can be measured and managed. But several anomalous episodes in recent years involving sudden, severe, and seemingly inexplicable price swings suggest that the next market selloff could be exacerbated by the fact that machines are at the controls.<strong><em> </em></strong></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong><em>&ldquo;</em></strong><strong><em>The system is more fragile than people suspect,&rdquo; </em></strong>says Michael Shaoul, CEO of Marketfield Asset Management.</p> </blockquote> <p><u><strong>THE RISE OF COMPUTER-DRIVEN</strong>,</u> rules-based trading mirrors what has happened across nearly every facet of society. As computers have grown more powerful, they have been able to do what humans were already doing, only better and faster. That&rsquo;s why Google has replaced encyclopedias in the search for information, why mobile banking is slowly replacing bank branches, and why&mdash;someday&mdash;our cars will be able to drive us to work. And it is also why Wall Street has embraced computers to help with everything from structuring portfolios and trading securities to making long-term investment decisions.</p> <p>In the years since 1987, huge strides have been made in understanding what drives stock performance and how to apply it to portfolio construction. At first, researchers focused on &ldquo;factors,&rdquo; such as a stock&rsquo;s volatility relative to the market&mdash;known as beta; whether a stock is large-cap or small&mdash;the size factor; and whether it is cheap or expensive&mdash;the value factor. More recently, the use of factors has proliferated to include many others, such as quality and momentum. (The latter involves buying the best-performing stocks and shunning the worst performers.)</p> <p><strong>Quantitative investors understood early on that betting on stocks based on their characteristics - and not the underlying business fundamentals of a particular company - was a good way to outperform the market.</strong> So good, in fact, that many fundamental, or &ldquo;active,&rdquo; money managers now use quantitative tools to help construct their portfolios and ensure that they don&rsquo;t place unintended bets. Nomura Instinet quantitative strategist Joseph Mezrich says that 70% of an active manager&rsquo;s performance can be explained by quantitative factors. <strong>&ldquo;Factors drive a lot of the returns,&rdquo;</strong> Mezrich says. &ldquo;Over time, this has dawned on people.&rdquo;</p> <p>Has it ever. One result has been the rise of indexing and exchange-traded funds. The ability to buy an index fund based on the Standard &amp; Poor&rsquo;s 500 - effectively a bet that large companies will outperform small ones - made the need for traditional fundamental research and stock-picking unnecessary.<strong> Since then, indexes and ETFs have been created to reflect just about any factor imaginable - low volatility and momentum among them.</strong> Some funds even combine multiple factors in a quest for better performance.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/15/20171016_feedback1.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/15/20171016_feedback1_0.jpg" style="width: 572px; height: 976px;" /></a></p> <p><strong>As a result, an increasing amount of money is being devoted to rules-based investing.</strong> Quantitative strategies now account for $933 billion in hedge funds, according to HFR, up from $499 billion in 2007. And there&rsquo;s some $3 trillion in index ETFs, which are, by definition, rules-based. The upshot: Trillions of dollars are now being invested by computers.<u><strong><em> &ldquo;We&rsquo;ve never seen so many investment decisions driven by quantitative systems,&rdquo; </em></strong></u>says Morningstar analyst Tayfun Icten.</p> <p><strong>That&rsquo;s quite a change from the 1980s</strong>. If you wanted to place a trade 30 years ago, you picked up the phone and called your broker; your broker called the firm&rsquo;s trader; the trader would ring up a specialist, the person in charge of running trading in a given stock; and the trade would be executed. The process was slow, cumbersome, and inefficient. As computer technology advanced, machines gradually took most of these steps out of the hands of humans. Today, nearly every trade is handled by an algorithm of some sort; it is placed by a computer and executed by computers interacting with one another.</p> <p>The entity handling trades isn&rsquo;t the only thing that has changed in the past 30 years. Trading now occurs in penny intervals, not fractions such as eighths and 16ths. While that has made it cheaper for investors to buy and sell a stock, pennies made trading far less lucrative for market makers, who historically profited by playing the &ldquo;spread&rdquo; between the highest bid to buy and the lowest offer to sell. Consequently, market makers have been replaced by algorithms programmed to instantaneously recognize changes in liquidity, news flow, and other developments, and respond accordingly. <strong>At the same time, the proliferation of exchanges helped to lower trading costs but also created a fragmented market that can make shares hard to find during dislocations.</strong></p> <p><strong><em>Most of the time, none of this matters. If you want to buy a stock, you boot up your computer, log in to your brokerage account, and place an order that gets filled almost immediately. The fee you pay is so low that it would have been unimaginable 30 years ago. The system has worked well for individual investors, and will continue to do so&mdash;as long as nothing goes wrong.</em></strong></p> <p><u><strong>BUT MISTAKES HAPPEN</strong>. </u></p> <p><strong>In 1998, the &ldquo;quants&rdquo; at Long-Term Capital Management, led by Nobel Prize winners Myron Scholes and Robert Merton, nearly caused a massive market selloff when the hedge fund&rsquo;s highly leveraged trades, based on quantitative models of expected market behavior, suddenly lost money after Russia unexpectedly defaulted on its debt.</strong> The damage was magnified by the borrowing that LTCM had used to supersize its bets. Only a bailout organized by the Federal Reserve prevented the broad market from plummeting.</p> <p><strong>In August 2007, a selloff occurred in quantitative funds that would become known as the &ldquo;quant quake.&rdquo; </strong>To this day, no one knows what sparked the selling, but once it began, computer models kicked in, causing further selling. Humans added to the mess as risk managers looking at losses dumped shares. Funds specializing in quantitative investment strategies reportedly suffered massive losses: The Renaissance Institutional Equities fund was thought to have lost nearly 9% early in that month, while <a class="t-company" href="http://quotes.barrons.com/GS">Goldman Sachs</a> &rsquo; Global Alpha suffered a double-digit decline.</p> <p>The impact on the market wasn&rsquo;t huge - the S&amp;P 500 dropped just 3.3% during the first two weeks of August - but<strong> the event demonstrated what happens when a trade sours and too many funds are forced by their models to sell at the same time.</strong> It was a wake-up call for quants, who have since created more-sophisticated systems to reduce the kind of crowding that led to the selloff.</p> <p><strong>More recently, problems have been caused by algorithms that are supposed to provide stock for investors to buy, or buy when investors sell, creating liquidity. </strong>On May 6, 2010, the S&amp;P 500 dropped 7% in just 30 minutes, as bids and offers for stocks moved far away from where stocks had been trading, in some cases leaving bids down as low as a penny and offers as high as $100,000.</p> <p><strong>Again, no one knows what caused the sudden decline. </strong>Investors had been on edge because of an unfolding European debt crisis, but that alone seemed unlikely to have triggered the flight of automated market makers. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission blamed the swoon on fake orders placed by a futures trader, while the Securities and Exchange Commission fingered a massive sell order in the futures market allegedly placed by a mutual fund company seeking to protect itself from a potential downturn. That order, it argued, had been handled by a poorly designed algorithm&mdash;yet another reminder that an algorithm is only as good as the inputs used by the people designing it.</p> <p><strong>While the rout was over quickly, and the S&amp;P 500 finished the session down a more modest 3.2%, the episode raised concerns about the potential for computerized trading to exacerbate selloffs.</strong></p> <p><u><strong>REGULATORS AND EXCHANGES</strong></u> have made changes since then, but so-called flash crashes continue to happen, even if they are no longer quite as disruptive as the 1987 selloff. <strong><em>On Aug. 24, 2015, for instance, the Dow dropped almost 1,100 points during the first five minutes of trading. The selloff was spurred by a plunge in China&rsquo;s stock market, which led to a drop in Europe. All of this happened when U.S. markets were closed, which meant that investors turned to the futures and options markets to place their trades.</em></strong></p> <p><strong>Chaos prevailed when the stock market opened: </strong>Only about half of the stocks in the S&amp;P 500 had started trading by 9:35 a.m.; a quarter of the Russell 3000 index was down 10% or more intraday, and many large ETFs traded far below the value of their underlying assets. Algorithms, sensing something amiss, simply stepped back from the market. Once again, the S&amp;P 500 recovered much of its sudden loss, but savvy market observers detected eerie echoes of an earlier era. In a much-read note at the time, <a class="t-company" href="http://quotes.barrons.com/JPM">JPMorgan</a> strategist Marko Kolanovic cited the feedback loop of selling and compared it to the Black Monday selloff of 1987.</p> <p><strong>Flash crashes have not been limited to stocks - or even crashes. </strong>On Oct. 15, 2014, the price of the 10-year Treasury note soared, causing yields to tumble 0.35 of a percentage point in mere minutes before quickly reversing. The SEC blamed the increasing role of automated high-frequency algorithms for the sudden move.</p> <p>The most recent scare occurred on May 18, when the <a class="t-company" href="http://quotes.barrons.com/EWZ">iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF</a> (ticker: EWZ) dropped as much as 19% in a single trading session before closing the day down 16%. To put that move in perspective, the Brazil ETF&rsquo;s worst single-day decline at the height of the financial crisis in 2008 had been 19%. While there was bad news in May&mdash;reports that Brazilian President Michel Temer had been ensnared in a corruption scandal&mdash;that seemed insufficient cause for such a precipitous decline.</p> <p>Shaoul, of Marketfield, attributes the Brazil ETF&rsquo;s plunge to a combination of factors, including the growth of passive investing, which has made it easy to buy and sell an entire country&rsquo;s market with the press of a button, combined with computer-driven trading.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong><em>&ldquo;There was no way of knowing what was a human being pressing a button, or a computer pressing a button,&rdquo; he says. &ldquo;But it generates the potential for sudden spikes in volatility that come out of nowhere.&rdquo;</em></strong></p> </blockquote> <p><strong>The Brazil ETF recovered its losses fairly quickly. By the end of August, it was trading above its May 17 close.</strong></p> <p>U.S. markets haven&rsquo;t suffered declines like that, but have experienced numerous &ldquo;fragility events&rdquo;&mdash;sudden one-day declines&mdash;during the current rally, says Chintan Kotecha, an equity derivatives strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. But because stocks have been in a bull market, there has been little follow-through after the initial selloff. As a result, some quantitative strategies reposition for more volatility, but none arrives. Kotecha attributes the lack of follow-through, in part, to central bankers&rsquo; continued bond-buying, which has provided much-needed support for the markets.</p> <p>Follow-through was all the market had in 1987, as selling automatically triggered more selling. To some observers, the risks of a similar scenario are growing. <strong>One particular area of concern: volatility-targeting strategies, which try to hold a portfolio&rsquo;s volatility constant, and risk-parity strategies, which attempt to equalize the risk in a portfolio among bonds, stocks, and other assets&mdash;and sometimes use leverage to do it.</strong> When volatility is low, these portfolios can hold more-risky assets than when volatility is high. But as soon as volatility rises&mdash;and stays high&mdash;these types of funds will need to start selling stocks and other assets to keep the risk of their portfolios at the same level. If they sell enough, volatility could spike higher, leading to even more selling.</p> <div class="module inset-blockquote "> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div> <p><em><u><strong><span class="l-qt">&ldquo;</span> The PROLIFERATION of COMPUTER-DRIVEN INVESTING has created an illusion that RISK can be measured and managed. But several anomalous episodes in recent years involving sudden, severe, and seemingly INEXPLICABLE PRICE SWINGS suggest the next MARKET SELLOFF could be exacerbated by the fact that the MACHINES are at the controls. <span class="r-qt">&rdquo;</span></strong></u></em></p> </blockquote> </div> <p>In a market selloff, commodity-trading advisors similarly could exit their long positions quickly and look to short stocks, creating further selling pressure as they head for the exits. &ldquo;Action leads to more action,&rdquo; says Richard Bookstaber, chief risk officer at the University of California and author of <em>The End of Theory,</em> a book about financial crises caused by positive feedback loops.</p> <p><strong>PERHAPS THE BIG QUESTION</strong> is who might be left to buy. Warren Buffett once quipped that investors should be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful, but the current market structure has turned that maxim on its head. Algorithms provide less liquidity in a downturn than a human market maker, who might be thinking about how to profit from a dislocation.</p> <p>The rise of momentum and passive strategies has caused some $2 trillion to shift away from active money managers, who could be counted on to look for bargains as stocks sold off, says Kolanovic, the JPMorgan strategist.<em><strong> </strong></em></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><em><strong>&ldquo;We think the main attribute of the next crisis will be severe liquidity disruptions resulting from market developments since the last crisis,&rdquo; he says.</strong></em></p> </blockquote> <p>But most strategists acknowledge that such an occurrence isn&rsquo;t a high-probability event. Much will depend on the cause of any disruption, as well as seasonal factors&mdash;stocks are more thinly traded in summer, for example. Also, computers aren&rsquo;t the only cause of selling cycles; bear markets, after all, long predate machine-driven trading.</p> <p><strong>Quantitative investors argue that they have learned from past mistakes and are less likely to be leveraged or crowded into the same trades. </strong></p> <p>Moreover, regulators and exchanges have instituted rules that could help arrest a bout of unchecked selling, with trading halts imposed when the S&amp;P 500 falls 7%, 13%, and 20%.</p> <p><em><strong>Maybe these precautions will work to stem a tidal wave of selling. One of these days&mdash;possibly soon, given stocks&rsquo; lofty valuation and the Fed&rsquo;s plan to shrink its balance sheet&mdash;we&rsquo;ll find out.</strong></em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="572" height="377" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20171016_feedback.jpg?1508179667" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-16/black-monday-20-next-machine-driven-meltdown#comments Alpha automated high-frequency algorithms Bank of America Bank of America Brazil Business China Commodity Futures Trading Commission Computer technology Corruption Day trading Dow 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average Economy Exchange-traded fund Federal Reserve Finance Financial markets flash Foreign exchange market Funds Futures market goldman sachs Goldman Sachs Google Index fund Instinet Mathematical finance Meltdown Merrill Merrill Lynch mobile banking Money Morningstar Nomura None poorly designed algorithm Renaissance Russell 3000 Russell 3000 S&P 500 Securities and Exchange Commission Securities and Exchange Commission Share trading Stock market U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission University of California University of California US Federal Reserve Volatility Warren Buffett Mon, 16 Oct 2017 23:40:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 605427 at http://www.zerohedge.com NY Club Owner Pressured To Deny Harvey Weinstein Masturbation Story, Goes Public With Sticky New Details Instead http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-16/ny-club-owner-pressured-deny-harvey-weinstein-masturbation-story-goes-public-sticky- <p><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #000000; text-transform: none; line-height: inherit; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; word-spacing: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">Content originally published at&nbsp;</span><span style="font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #1e439a; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; text-decoration: underline; word-spacing: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit;"><a href="http://ibankcoin.com/" target="_blank" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #1e439a; line-height: 1.2; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit;">iBankCoin.com</a></span></span></p> <p><span style="font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; vertical-align: baseline; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit;"><br /> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><a href="http://ibankcoin.com/zeropointnow/files/2017/10/harveyreporter.jpg" style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; transition: 0.2s ease-in-out; border-image: none; color: #00a3cc; text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://ibankcoin.com/zeropointnow/files/2017/10/harveyreporter-300x199.jpg" width="300" height="199" style="list-style: none; margin: 5px 0px 5px 25px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; transition: 0.4s ease-in-out; border-image: none; height: auto; vertical-align: middle; float: right; display: inline; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; opacity: 1;" class="alignright size-medium wp-image-12035 tie-appear" /></a>One of the more bizarre allegations levied against accused rapist and disgraced Hollywood mogul Harvey Weinstein is that he&nbsp;masturbated into a potted plant in front of&nbsp;TV news anchor Lauren Sivan in 2007.</p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;">Sivan said&nbsp;Harvey&nbsp;lured her to the basement of&nbsp;<em style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">Socialista,</em><span>&nbsp;</span>a&nbsp;Cuban restaurant in Greenwich Village, NY. in which Weinstein was an investor, and&nbsp;tried to kiss her. When she rebuffed his advances, the&nbsp;serial sexual predator&nbsp;“simply began to pleasure himself” – asking the TV anchor to “just stand there and shut up” before&nbsp;reportedly ejaculating into a potted plant.</p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">From potted plant to&nbsp;cookware</strong></p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;">When former owner of&nbsp;<em style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">Socialista,&nbsp;</em>Armin Amiri&nbsp;was reached for comment by&nbsp;<a href="http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/harvey-weinstein-asked-ny-club-owner-deny-infamous-potted-plant-story-1049007" target="_blank" style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; transition: 0.2s ease-in-out; border-image: none; color: #00a3cc; text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;" rel="noopener noreferrer"><em style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">The Hollywood Reporter</em></a>, he says<span>&nbsp;</span><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">Weinstein’s lawyers asked him to deny the incident.&nbsp;</strong>Instead, Amiri confirmed that it happened – though&nbsp;he says Weinstein actually ejaculated into a cooking pot, not a potted plant, which was later found on the stove.</p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><em style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">What I remember about this incident is that my sous chef came into my office, furious, telling me that<strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;"><span>&nbsp;</span>‘some fat fuck’ saying he’s an owner — he didn’t know the name — had come into the kitchen with a woman and shoved a $100 bill at him and told him to get out. It was like&nbsp;1:30&nbsp;in the morning and he’d been the only one still there.</strong><span>&nbsp;</span>The chef told me he was going to quit.</em></p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><em style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">I went to check things out and saw Harvey soon after, fixing his belt, behind the bar.</strong><span>&nbsp;</span>I never saw the woman. My chef and I go to the kitchen.<span>&nbsp;</span><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">He picks up a pot that had been placed back on the stove. It had been defiled. It was so bizarre.</strong><span>&nbsp;</span>We couldn’t believe it happened.</em></p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;">&nbsp;(full statement below)</p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;">So, accused rapist and all around sexual predator Harvey Weinstein allegedly lured local TV reporter Lauren Sivan into the basement of a restaurant he was an investor in, paid the chef $100 to go away – telling him he was ‘an owner,’ and jerked off into a pot when she rebuffed his advances – which he then placed&nbsp;<em style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">back onto the stove</em><span>&nbsp;</span>before zipping up and walking out.</p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;">Not even close to OK Harvey…</p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><a href="http://ibankcoin.com/zeropointnow/files/2016/11/marinabar-e1480202799976.jpg" style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; transition: 0.2s ease-in-out; border-image: none; color: #00a3cc; text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://ibankcoin.com/zeropointnow/files/2016/11/marinabar-e1480202799976-300x259.jpg" width="300" height="259" style="list-style: none; margin: 5px 0px 5px 25px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; transition: 0.4s ease-in-out; border-image: none; height: auto; vertical-align: middle; float: right; display: inline; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; opacity: 1;" class="alignright size-medium wp-image-2199 tie-appear" /></a>Let's not&nbsp;go so far as to say Weinstein was engaging in a festive night of<span>&nbsp;</span><a href="https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/11/04/heres-how-the-other-half-lives-an-occult-dinner-with-john-podesta-hosted-by-marina-abramovic/" target="_blank" style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; transition: 0.2s ease-in-out; border-image: none; color: #00a3cc; text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;" rel="noopener noreferrer">#SpiritCooking</a>, which he’s at least one or two degrees of separation from given his close friendship with the Clintons – who are in turn friends with noted occultist Marina Abramovic (who Tony Podesta has&nbsp;<a href="http://ibankcoin.com/zeropointnow/files/2016/11/tonysupport.jpg" style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; transition: 0.2s ease-in-out; border-image: none; color: #00a3cc; text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;">given money to</a>, who was invited to&nbsp;<a href="http://ibankcoin.com/zeropointnow/files/2016/11/marinadinner.jpg" style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; transition: 0.2s ease-in-out; border-image: none; color: #00a3cc; text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;">Hillary Clinton’s Campaign launch</a>, whose art Hillary Clinton placed in&nbsp;<a href="http://ibankcoin.com/zeropointnow/files/2016/11/artemb.jpg" style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; transition: 0.2s ease-in-out; border-image: none; color: #00a3cc; text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;">US embassies around the world</a>, who Hillary wanted to invite to a&nbsp;<a href="http://ibankcoin.com/zeropointnow/files/2016/11/lunch.jpg" style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; transition: 0.2s ease-in-out; border-image: none; color: #00a3cc; text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;">lunch event</a>, who donated the maximum&nbsp;<a href="http://ibankcoin.com/zeropointnow/files/2016/11/donated.jpg" style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; transition: 0.2s ease-in-out; border-image: none; color: #00a3cc; text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;">$2700 to Hillary’s campaign</a>, and who said in a Reddit AMA (“Ask Me Anything”) that her spirit cooking&nbsp;<a href="http://ibankcoin.com/zeropointnow/files/2016/11/Spirit.png" style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; transition: 0.2s ease-in-out; border-image: none; color: #00a3cc; text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;">dinners</a>&nbsp;in private homes&nbsp;are&nbsp;<a href="http://ibankcoin.com/zeropointnow/files/2016/11/z484j2EbaVB3AEldtwSmeBQ3CQl3Y9ubnJVjGZwVR9M.jpg" style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; transition: 0.2s ease-in-out; border-image: none; color: #00a3cc; text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;">not art</a>.). While Harvey’s&nbsp;sperm receptacle was probably chosen out of practicality&nbsp;– the guy<span>&nbsp;</span><em style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">did</em><span>&nbsp;</span>leave semen, in a cooking pot, on a stove.</p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">Not to mention, Harvey sure seems to love his highbrow bodily excretion art… or at least this is what he thinks of at the sight of a naked woman:&nbsp;</strong></p> <blockquote style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 30px 20px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 18px; text-align: center; color: #555555; line-height: 28px; font-family: monospace; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: #ffffff; border: 0px 0px 0px 4px solid #777777;">George has a dog</p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 18px; text-align: center; color: #555555; line-height: 28px; font-family: monospace; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: #ffffff; border: 0px 0px 0px 4px solid #777777;">His NAME is Rocky</p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 18px; text-align: center; color: #555555; line-height: 28px; font-family: monospace; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: #ffffff; border: 0px 0px 0px 4px solid #777777;">And he pees</p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 18px; text-align: center; color: #555555; line-height: 28px; font-family: monospace; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: #ffffff; border: 0px 0px 0px 4px solid #777777;">And poops</p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 18px; text-align: center; color: #555555; line-height: 28px; font-family: monospace; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: #ffffff; border: 0px 0px 0px 4px solid #777777;">WHEN I walk in th room</p> </blockquote> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><a href="http://ibankcoin.com/zeropointnow/files/2017/10/687789016.jpg" style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; transition: 0.2s ease-in-out; border-image: none; color: #00a3cc; text-decoration: none; box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="http://ibankcoin.com/zeropointnow/files/2017/10/687789016.jpg" width="1024" height="893" style="list-style: none; margin: 5px auto; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; transition: 0.4s ease-in-out; border-image: none; height: auto; clear: both; vertical-align: middle; display: block; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; opacity: 1;" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-12030 tie-appear" /></a></p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;">Sounds like Rocky doesn’t like Harvey very much.</p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;">(Amiri’s full statement to&nbsp;<em style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">THR</em>)</p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><em style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">“Last week, after Lauren Sivan came forward with her awful story about Harvey Weinstein and the ‘potted plant’ at Socialista, he contacted me. We hadn’t spoken in years. He told me he needed a statement about his involvement in Socialista, which I said I’d be happy to provide, and I did, and then his lawyers said he needed one saying I hadn’t seen anything that night. I told them I knew something happened that night, I just hadn’t known what specifically. I couldn’t make a statement absolving him because when she came forward, my memory clicked.</em></p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><em style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">Harvey had been an investor in Socialista and I had appeared in one of the films he distributed, ‘Factory Girl.’ What I remember about this incident is that my sous chef came into my office, furious, telling me that ‘some fat fuck’ saying he’s an owner — he didn’t know the name — had come into the kitchen with a woman and shoved a $100 bill at him and told him to get out. It was like&nbsp;1:30&nbsp;in the morning and he’d been the only one still there. The chef told me he was going to quit.</em></p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><em style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">I went to check things out and saw Harvey soon after, fixing his belt, behind the bar. I never saw the woman. My chef and I go to the kitchen. He picks up a pot that had been placed back on the stove. It had been defiled. It was so bizarre. We couldn’t believe it happened.</em></p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><em style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">I couldn’t prove any of it so I never confronted him. Harvey was an investor and it was around the time he married Georgina Chapman.</em></p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><em style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">My heart goes out to all the brave women who have come forward. Once Ms. Sivan spoke out, and after being contacted by several media outlets, I’ve felt responsible to state what I remembered.”</em></p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><em style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;"><img src="https://ibankcoin.com/zeropointnow/files/2017/10/1rtn3y.jpg" width="468" height="498" style="margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; display: block;" /><br /></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; text-align: center; color: #000000; text-transform: none; line-height: inherit; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit;">Follow on Twitter&nbsp;</span><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; text-align: center; color: #000000; text-transform: none; line-height: inherit; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-weight: bold; word-spacing: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit;"><a href="https://twitter.com/ZeroPointNow" target="_blank" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #1e439a; line-height: 1.2; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit;"><span style="font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; vertical-align: baseline; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; text-decoration-line: underline;"><span style="font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #0066cc; vertical-align: baseline; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit;"><span style="font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit;">@ZeroPointNow</span></span></span></a></strong><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; text-align: center; color: #000000; text-transform: none; line-height: inherit; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit;">&nbsp;</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; text-align: center; color: #ff6600; text-transform: none; line-height: inherit; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit;">§&nbsp;</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; text-align: center; color: #000000; text-transform: none; line-height: inherit; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit;">Subscribe to our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/subscription_center?add_user=ibankcoin" target="_blank" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; text-align: center; color: #1e439a; text-transform: none; line-height: 1.2; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; word-spacing: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; background-color: #ffffff; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit;"><span style="font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; vertical-align: baseline; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; text-decoration-line: underline;"><span style="font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #0066cc; vertical-align: baseline; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit;"><span style="font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; vertical-align: baseline; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit;"><span style="font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit;">You<strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; vertical-align: baseline; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit;">Tube channel</strong></span></span></span></span></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p></p></span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-16/ny-club-owner-pressured-deny-harvey-weinstein-masturbation-story-goes-public-sticky-#comments Twitter Twitter Mon, 16 Oct 2017 23:32:19 +0000 ZeroPointNow 605436 at http://www.zerohedge.com North Korea Drops Propaganda Leaflets On Seoul: "Let's Behead Mad Dog Trump, Death To The Old Lunatic" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-16/north-korea-drops-propaganda-leaflets-seoul-lets-behead-mad-dog-trump-death-old-luna <p>Following President Trump&#39;s United Nations&#39; speech threats to &quot;totally destroy&quot; North Korea, lambasting the North&#39;s leader Kim Jong-un as &quot;a rocket man on a suicide mission,&quot; it appears he is not the only one capable of public and aggressive hyperbole.</p> <p><a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/north-korea-anti-donald-trump-propaganda-leaflets-seoul-south-nuclear-stand-off-a8003111.html"><em>As The Independent reports</em></a>, <strong>propaganda fliers presumed to be from <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/topic/NorthKorea">North Korea</a> and calling US&nbsp;President <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/topic/DonaldTrump">Donald Trump</a> a &ldquo;mad dog&rdquo; have turned up across <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/topic/Seoul">central Seoul</a></strong>, including near the presidential Blue House, according to posts on social media and people who found them.</p> <p><strong>&ldquo;Death to old lunatic Trump!&rdquo; reads one poster, with a North Korean soldier with rifle in hand, crushing what looks to be Trump&rsquo;s head with his tongue dangling out of his mouth. </strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/15/20171016_trumpnk1.jpg"><img height="423" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/15/20171016_trumpnk1.jpg" width="564" /></a></p> <p>Near the soldier&rsquo;s head is the line:<strong><em> &ldquo;Complete obliteration.&rdquo;</em></strong></p> <p>Another poster shows<strong> Trump with the body of a dog being decapitated by an ax<strong>e... </strong></strong></p> <p>Blood is shown splattered on the axe in the poster, which states:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><em><strong>&ldquo;Let&rsquo;s behead mad dog Trump for the future of a peaceful and warless world and mankind!&rdquo;</strong></em></p> </blockquote> <p>And In an apparent jab at Trump&rsquo;s UN speech, one of the propaganda posters featured Trump standing behind a podium with a rocket in his mouth painted with the words &ldquo;totally destroy North Korea&rdquo;.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/15/20171016_trumpnk2.jpg"><img height="423" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/15/20171016_trumpnk2_0.jpg" width="564" /></a></p> <p><strong>Again, Trump is depicted as a dog with a human face and labelled as &ldquo;mad dog Trump&rdquo;.</strong></p> <p>Men in suits (on the right) with surprised looks on their faces are shown in the poster saying:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong><em>&ldquo;He&rsquo;s gone completely insane&rdquo; and &ldquo;If we let him be, there will be war&rdquo;.</em></strong></p> </blockquote> <p>Of course none of this is new to Trump as liberal so-called comedians have gone there...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/15/20171016_trumpnk4.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/15/20171016_trumpnk4_0.jpg" style="width: 564px; height: 356px;" /></a></p> <p>And so has German magazine Der Spiegel...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/15/20171016_trumpnk5.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/15/20171016_trumpnk5.jpg" style="width: 564px; height: 683px;" /></a></p> <p>But, it is <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/north-korea-anti-donald-trump-propaganda-leaflets-seoul-south-nuclear-stand-off-a8003111.html">reportedly </a>not difficult to find North Korean propaganda posters in South Korea, <strong>usually flown by balloon over the highly fortified demilitarised zone.</strong></p> <p>Military images and anti-US threats are common in North Korea propaganda as Pyongyang demands the United States cease what it says is its preparations for invasion.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><em><strong>&ldquo;I am pretty sure it came from North Korea by balloon, since the prevailing winds during October have been from north to south and we&rsquo;ve been getting reports of others finding them throughout Seoul,&rdquo;</strong></em> said Chad O&lsquo;Carroll, managing director of NK News, a Seoul-based news subscription service, who found the leaflets while jogging in central Seoul.</p> </blockquote> <p>But, <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/north-korea-anti-donald-trump-propaganda-leaflets-seoul-south-nuclear-stand-off-a8003111.html">as The Indepdent reports</a>,<strong> the new series of fliers posted recently on Twitter and other social media target Trump specifically.</strong></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="726" height="442" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20171016_trumpnk3.jpg?1508190889" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-16/north-korea-drops-propaganda-leaflets-seoul-lets-behead-mad-dog-trump-death-old-luna#comments American people of German descent Blue House Climate change skepticism and denial Donald Trump Donald Trump KIM None North Korea Politics Politics Propaganda The Apprentice Twitter Twitter United Nations United States WWE Hall of Fame Mon, 16 Oct 2017 23:20:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 605431 at http://www.zerohedge.com "That Money's Already Been Spent" - Clinton Foundation Won't Return $250,000 Weinstein Donation http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-16/moneys-already-been-spent-clinton-foundation-wont-return-250000-weinstein-donation <p>After the Clinton Foundation&rsquo;s chief spokesman suggested as much in a tweet on Saturday, the Clinton Foundation has confirmed that it will not be returning a $250,000 donation from disgraced Hollywood studio chief Harvey Weinstein, <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/10/16/clinton-foundation-to-keep-harvey-weinsteins-250000-donation.html">Fox </a>news reported.</p> <p>The foundation said Sunday that donations<strong>, ranging from $100,000 to $250,000,</strong> have already been spent on projects.</p> <p>On Friday, Hillary Clinton said during an interview Friday with the UK&rsquo;s Channel Four that her campaign has yet to rreturn Weinstein&#39;s<a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-15/clinton-denies-we-just-elected-someone-who-admitted-sexual-assault-presidency"> campaign contributions.</a> After issuing a statement denouncing her one-time friend issued five days after the scandal broke, Clinton promised during an interview with CNN that she personally would donate to charity an amount equal to Weinstein&#39;s contributions over the course of her political career.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/10/04/2017.10.16weinstein.JPG"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/10/04/2017.10.16weinstein_0.JPG" style="width: 500px; height: 293px;" /></a></p> <p>She blamed the delay on the complexities of withdrawing money from a campaign account, and reiterated that the money would be turned over soon. <strong>Weinstein was also a prominent Democratic fundraiser who hosted fundraising events for Clinton and former President Barack Obama.</strong></p> <p>The move to keep the money was expected following tweets from the foundation&rsquo;s spokesman Craig Minassian.</p> <p>&ldquo;Suggesting @ClintonFdn return funds from our 330,000+ donors ignores the fact that donations have been used to help people across the world,&rdquo; Minassian wrote on Twitter.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Suggesting <a href="https://twitter.com/ClintonFdn?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ClintonFdn</a> return funds from our 330,000+ donors ignores the fact that donations have been used to help people across the world. <a href="https://t.co/dBXNZwAkWS">https://t.co/dBXNZwAkWS</a></p> <p>&mdash; Craig Minassian (@MinassianMedia) <a href="https://twitter.com/MinassianMedia/status/919340734301470720?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 14, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><p>A Clinton Foundation spokesman told the <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4982956/Clinton-Foundation-won-t-return-cash-Harvey-Weinstein.html">Daily Mail</a> that Weinstein&#39;s<strong> money was used to fund programs to help lower the cost of HIV medication and supporting women and girls in developing countries</strong>. Weinstein&#39;s most recent donation was made in 2014.</p> <p>In an interview with <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/11/politics/hillary-clinton-harvey-weinstein-fareed-zakaria-cnntv/index.html">CNN</a>&#39;s Fareed Zakaria on Thursday Clinton said she was &quot;sick&quot; and &quot;shocked&quot; when she found out about the sexual assault allegations against Weinstein, which were first revealed in a bombshell report by The New York Times and then further reported in a detailed report by The New Yorker and subsequent reports in the Times. Since then, more than 30 women have publicly accused Weinstein of harassment, assault or groping.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>&quot;I was appalled. It was something that was just intolerable in every way,&quot; </strong>she said.<strong> &quot;And, you know, like so many people who&#39;ve come forward and spoken out, this was a different side of a person who I and many others had known in the past.&quot;</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>When asked about Weinstein&rsquo;s campaign donations, she told <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/11/politics/hillary-clinton-harvey-weinstein-fareed-zakaria-cnntv/index.html">CNN </a>that it wasn&#39;t possible to give the money back but that she would donate an equivalent amount to charity.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>&quot;What other people are saying, what my former colleagues are saying, is they&#39;re going to donate it to charity, and of course I will do that,&quot; </strong>she said on <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/11/politics/hillary-clinton-harvey-weinstein-fareed-zakaria-cnntv/index.html">CNN</a>. <strong>&quot;I give 10% of my income to charity every year, this will be part of that.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><strong>There&#39;s no &ndash; there&#39;s no doubt about it.&quot;</strong></em></p> </blockquote> <p>A Clinton aide later told <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/11/politics/hillary-clinton-harvey-weinstein-fareed-zakaria-cnntv/index.html">CNN </a>that Clinton would donate $13,000 to a women&#39;s organization, but refused to provide a name. The donation will cover Weinstein&#39;s contributions to her 2000 Senate primary race, the 2006 Senate primary and general election, the 2007 presidential primary and the 2015 and 2016 presidential primary and general election, the aide said.</p> <p>Dozens Democratic Party politicians &ndash; including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, Sen. Sen. Al Franken, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Sen. Cory Booker &ndash; have pledged to donate their Weinstein&rsquo;s contributions to charities focused on women&rsquo;s rights.</p> <p>But will Clinton - who has repeatedly insisted that she was unaware of Weinstein&#39;s predatory behavior despite considering him a friend - cough up an additional $250,000 to cover Weinstein&rsquo;s donations to the Clinton Foundation? That remains to be seen.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="752" height="441" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017.10.16weinstein.JPG?1508157644" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-16/moneys-already-been-spent-clinton-foundation-wont-return-250000-weinstein-donation#comments Barack Obama Bill Clinton Clinton Foundation Clinton Foundation Elizabeth Warren Fox News Hillary Clinton New York Times Politics Rodham family Twitter Twitter Mon, 16 Oct 2017 23:00:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 605379 at http://www.zerohedge.com "This Is The Catalyst For Everything": Deutsche Sees Only Two More Rate Hikes Before The Fed Loses Control http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-16/catalyst-everything-deutsche-sees-only-two-more-rate-hikes-fed-loses-control <p>In his <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-15/eric-peters-nightmare-scenario-next-fed-chair">latest weekend note</a>, One River CIO Eric Peters discussed, among other topics, what he thought would be the nightmare scenario if not for the current, then certainly next Fed chairman:<strong> a world in which despite the Fed's best intentions (and we use the term loosely), the Fed continued to hike rates without any perceptible increase in wages and thus, long-term inflation expectations</strong>. The result would be a failure to raise bond yields, which would provide further ammo for stocks to keep rising ever higher into what even the Fed tacitly admits is increasingly an asset bubble. This is how Peters described the ominous dynamic that would lead to major headaches for the next (and perhaps current, if Yellen remains in her spot) dynamic:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>“Global profits are rising, unemployment is falling, growth is up” said the strategist. <strong>“Yet bond yields seem unable to jump.” US 10yr bond yields are 2.27%, Germany 0.40%, Japan 0.05%. </strong>“The cyclical surprise is that the Phillips curve finally kicks in, just as everyone gives in.” US unemployment is 4.2%, a 17yr low. Germany 3.6%, a 37yr low. Japan 2.8%, a 23yr low. “And the biggest structural surprise is that technology has rendered wage inflation a phenomenon for the history books.” “<strong>But if we don’t see a sustained cyclical jump in wages, then yields won’t go up</strong>. <strong>And if yields don’t go up, then the asset price ascent will accelerate</strong>,” continued the strategist. “Which will lead us into a 2018 that looks like what we had expected out of 2017; a war against inequality, a battle for Main Street at the expense of Wall Street, an Occupy Silicon Valley movement.” He paused, flipping through his calendar.&nbsp; "<strong>Then you’ll have this nightmare for the next Federal Reserve chief, because they’ll have to pop a bubble</strong>.” </p> </blockquote> <p>Today, picking up on this divergence between rising short-term rates, and an inability - and unwillingness - of the long-end to reprice higher which continues to <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-16/recession-red-flag-rears-its-ugly-head-treasury-yield-curve-crashes-post-crisis-flat">manifest itself in a flattening of the yield curve, </a>where today the 2s10s pancaked to the lowest since the financial crisis...</p> <p><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/15/20171016_YC2_0.jpg" width="499" height="261" /></p> <p>... a move which continues to be ignored by markets...</p> <p><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/15/20171016_breslow2_0.jpg" width="503" height="267" /></p> <p>... was Deutsche Bank's derivatives strategist Aleksandar Kocic who confirms what Peters said, and argues that "<strong>for anything to happen, long rate has to move higher.</strong>" Taking a slightly different angle than Peters however, who focused on the structural deflationary forces which prevent the curve from steepening, Kocic frames a move higher in longer yields as one which underscores the trap the current (or future) Fed chairman is in: any notable steepening would be an indication of the Fed potentially losing control, or as Kocic puts it "<em>possible missteps in monetary policy unwind"</em> and a "<em>disorderly unwind of the bond trade"</em>, with the end result being an explosion in pent up volatility: "<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">this is the risk that would be probably impossible to control, its trigger being either excessive deficit spending or inflation</span>. "</strong></p> <p>As a result, Kocic writes that the Fed "has an uncomfortable (and complicated) task in this context: <strong>Fed needs to raise rates in order to prevent rates rise. </strong>What must not be, cannot be: <strong>Inflation cannot be allowed to develop because it would be no way of avoiding dramatic rise in rates. </strong>If the Fed embarks on aggressive hikes in order to fight inflation, <strong>rates would rise. </strong>If the Fed stays behind the curve, the market would bear steepen the curve. Either way, the long rates go up."</p> <p>Which, ironically, as Peters explained, is precisely what needs to happen to avoid the continued blowing of a massive equity bubble,or to summarize: the market finds itself in an increasingly unstable dysequilibrium in which on one hand the stock bubble grows ever bigger, while on the other, a normalization in equities is intimately linked to the Fed losing control of the yield curve. And, as Kocic has claimed on prior occasions, the ultimate catalyst that can trigger <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-17/kocic-markets-current-metastability-will-lead-cataclysmic-events">an end to this "metastable" market state </a>is <strong>inflation.</strong> The outcome, in either case, would be explosive.</p> <p>Here is Kocic:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>With abundant liquidity, Fed transparency, and “predictable” political shocks, <strong>we have entered a regime of noisy status quo whereby the only temporary source of transient bid for gamma could be triggered by possible missteps in monetary policy unwind. </strong>However, even that seems to be relatively unlikely and, even if it happens, episodic at best. <strong>The largest, and possibly, the only risk capable of resetting the vol higher is the tail risk associated with bear steepening of the curve and disorderly unwind of the bond trade</strong>. This is the risk that would be probably impossible to control, its trigger being either excessive deficit spending or inflation. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>It is precisely the severity of this problem that prevents return of volatility</strong>. Current monetary policy is focused on the management of the underlying tail risk and the Fed transparency and gradual hikes are all about the reduced maneuvering space that has remained after almost a decade of stimulus. <strong>Fed has an uncomfortable (and complicated) task in this context: Fed needs to raise rates in order to prevent rates rise. What must not be, cannot be: Inflation cannot be allowed to develop because it would be no way of avoiding dramatic rise in rates. If the Fed embarks on aggressive hikes in order to fight inflation, rates would rise. If the Fed stays behind the curve, the market would bear steepen the curve. Either way, the long rates go up.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>Going back to the increasingly flatter curve, this is what Kocic defines as the "maneuvering space" left for the Fed. One look at the chart above confirms that said space is getting increasingly smaller. A flat, or worse - inverted - yield curve would imply game over. Here is Kocic again, who points out that the steepness of the curve is the "market's playground", in which "everything that can happen, has to happen inside this space"... a space which is curently a paltry 60 bps and shrinking every day: </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>The gap between the Short term rate expectations and the Long rate represents the remaining maneuvering space that the Fed has left.</strong> This gap defines the playground for the markets -- everything that can happen, has to happen inside that space. <strong>This gap is narrow, currently at 60bp </strong>. </p> </blockquote> <p>Mechanistically, this is logical, as the longer the current business cycle continues without a recession - and some immaculate increase in productivity and r-star - the flatter the curve become:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>If the Fed has a long way to go into the cycle, the back end remains steep. <strong>However, as the hikes approach the final destination (the Long rate), the curve will continue to flatten reflecting the declining inflation expectations. These are pure mechanics of the Fed cycle</strong>. These stylized facts are illustrated in the Figure 14. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/10/14/shadow%20vs%20long%20rate.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/10/14/shadow%20vs%20long%20rate_0.jpg" width="500" height="373" /></a></p> </blockquote> <p>This is also a problem, because all else equal, the Fed has at most two more rate hikes before it loses control. In the interim, it somehow has to reprice both risk premia and vol higher... but without crashing equities, forcing a new easing cycle, which may include not only more QE but also NIRP: </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>"Given where long rates are, Fed appears as overly hawkish – <strong>it has only two more hikes to go and, for volatility and risk premia to reprice higher, the gap has to widen. </strong>As is appears unlikely that the Fed will be cutting rates any time soon, the gap could widen only if the Long rates sell off."</p> </blockquote> <p>And, as noted above, "for anything to happen, 5Y5Y sector has to move higher", however the $6.4 trillion question is whether this sell off in long rates will be violent or controlled. As Kocic concludes, "<strong>This is the catalyst for everything</strong>." </p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1024" height="576" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/yellen%20teaser%205_2.jpg?1508191675" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-16/catalyst-everything-deutsche-sees-only-two-more-rate-hikes-fed-loses-control#comments 2s10s 2s10s 2s10s. Bond Business Deficit Spending Deflation Economics Economy Fed Transparency Federal Reserve Financial markets Fixed income Germany Inflation Japan Macroeconomics Main Street Monetary economics Monetary Policy Monetary policy Phillips curve Recession Transparency Unemployment US Federal Reserve Volatility Yield Yield Curve Yield curve Mon, 16 Oct 2017 22:43:29 +0000 Tyler Durden 605432 at http://www.zerohedge.com Taleb Explains How He Made Millions On Black Monday As Others Crashed http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-16/taleb-explains-how-he-made-millions-black-monday-others-crashed <p>Former trader and author of best-selling book &ldquo;The Black Swan&rdquo; sat down for an interview with Bloomberg News to mark the upcoming thirtieth anniversary of the stock-market crash that occurred on Oct. 19, 1987 &ndash; otherwise known as Black Monday.</p> <p>Taleb famously supercharged his career &ndash; and earned a considerable sum of money (though turns out it was less than Taleb felt he deserved) &ndash; <strong>thanks to his trading profits from that day, which he said were in the &ldquo;tens of millions of dollars.&rdquo;</strong></p> <p><iframe allowscriptaccess="always" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-10-16/nassim-taleb-on-his-black-monday-positions-video" width="560"></iframe></p> <p>But what did he trade, and how? And furthermore, <strong>what was going through his head as he watched the market crumble around him?</strong></p> <p>Answering a question about what specific strategies he employed, Taleb explained that he relied on &ldquo;tail options&rdquo; &ndash; contracts that, because they were way out of the money, could be purchased for negligible sums &ndash; and placed most of his bets in &ldquo;professional&rdquo; markets like currencies and Eurodollar futures.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&ldquo;The dollar of course collapsed. Dollar-yen options - <strong>we had options we had bought for $10,000 in inventory that were selling for 17 million.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The thing was going&hellip;it was out of control. The big payoffs weren&rsquo;t in the main, big currencies, but in the ones where the move was a big surprise like Eurodollar or yen. The Swiss franc also had high volatility.&rdquo;</p> </blockquote> <p>Asked why the movements in currency and fixed income markets weren&rsquo;t as heavily covered as the moves in the stock market &ndash; which is where the bulk of that day&rsquo;s carnage unfolded &ndash; Taleb said it&rsquo;s because these markets are strictly for professional traders. Few middle-class investors traded bonds or owned foreign currencies outright back &ndash; but everybody seemed to own stocks.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&ldquo;Because it was a professional market&hellip;it was the largest market, fixed income, at the time&hellip;<strong>but only professionals talk about these things. And all the professionals that were around then are dead&hellip;Everybody talks about stocks because people invest in stocks.&rdquo;</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>Taleb declined to disclose how much First Boston &ndash; the investment bank at which he was employed &ndash; paid him for his success that day, though he did say that, because most of his colleagues lost money, the sum was smaller than he had hoped.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&ldquo;I remember the P&amp;L. In today&rsquo;s terms for the firm it would be something substantial. <strong>But at the time, compensation wasn&rsquo;t the same. It was in the mid-tens of millions. I made $60, $70, $80 million in one day.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>First Boston treated me very well. The problem was that it was still a common system where everybody had to share&hellip;and everybody had lost money except for me and one other fellow.&rdquo;</p> </blockquote> <p>Taleb said he vividly remembers Oct. 20, the day after the crash, when, he said, nearly all of his counterparties were outbidding his offer for his options positions by massive margins.</p> <p>He specifically remembers trading with famed commodity speculator Richard Dennis, whose hedge fund went bust that day.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&quot;I remember the [October 20], I get on the phone&hellip;and I remember there was a fellow called Richard Dennis who went bankrupt that morning at the open. There was a rally in interest rates and the guy was short eurodollars&hellip;he lost his $50 million fund&hellip;they were liquidating the thing. <strong>And I remember I had a huge delta in eurodollars. I remember then vividly offering something on the phone and filling it considerably higher. So, the guy in the pit, I&rsquo;d say let&rsquo;s sell here and he&rsquo;d sell higher. It was like the movie trading places&hellip;all morning I remember we were selling above our offers.&quot;</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>Taleb says the events of Black Monday left a lasting impression on him. His success made him brash and overconfident. But it also confirmed his view that the market&rsquo;s approach to calculating risk failed to take into account the possibility of &ldquo;six sigma&rdquo; moves like the Black Friday crash. Indeed, that trend has only worsened with the advent of ETFs and high-frequency trading, which many market strategists believe increase the likelihood of chaotic selloffs like the May 2010 flash crash.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&ldquo;After the event, I knew that all this stuff you learn in class, the Black-Scholes model, is useless&hellip;&rdquo;</p> </blockquote> <p>Asked what was going through his head when equity valuations were plummeting all around him, Taleb replies that he was so focused, he wasn&#39;t able to process the enormity of that day&rsquo;s events while they they were happening. All of his attention was focused on executing trades.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>&ldquo;When you&rsquo;re trading, it&rsquo;s like being in a battle.</strong> It&rsquo;s like TV. When I&rsquo;m watching TV, I don&rsquo;t know what&rsquo;s happening during the episode. It&rsquo;s not until later that I find out. I was in a state of heightened concentration.&quot;</p> </blockquote> <p>It wasn&rsquo;t until a colleague pointed out the magnitude of the move that Taleb began to understand that this might be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&ldquo;Someone came to me and made a remark&hellip;<strong>something like don&rsquo;t they know that six sigmas are something you only observe once in your lifetime?&rdquo;</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>Indeed, it would be 20 years before Taleb would book similarly outsized profits after he joined a handful of contrarians in shorting the market ahead of Lehman Brothers&rsquo;s September 2008 bankruptcy filing.</p> <p><iframe allowscriptaccess="always" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-10-16/nassim-taleb-says-black-monday-is-not-an-outlier-video" width="560"></iframe></p> <p>As for the extreme focus he exhibited on that day, Taleb said there have been a handful of occasions where he has had to maintain a monk-like level of focus for a prolonged period. He cited the invasion of Kuwait as one example, saying he arrived at First Boston&rsquo;s office at 2 am, and remained in a state of concentration for 15 or 16 hours.</p> <p>Ultimately, he says, traders are still underestimating the likelihood of another flash crash. Given the fact that realized volatility recently fell to record lows, this year&rsquo;s relatively placid equity market has fostered a widespread sense of complacency in markets.</p> <p>But that could all change in 24 hours&rsquo; time.<br />&nbsp;</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1083" height="634" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017.10.16talebtease.JPG?1508182320" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-16/taleb-explains-how-he-made-millions-black-monday-others-crashed#comments Black Friday Black Swan Black–Scholes model Bloomberg News Business Counterparties Economic bubbles Economy EuroDollar Eurodollar Finance fixed flash Great Recession in the United States Kuwait Lehman Lehman Brothers Mathematical finance Money Stock market crashes Swiss Franc Systemic risk Technical analysis The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Volatility Volatility Yen Mon, 16 Oct 2017 22:40:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 605422 at http://www.zerohedge.com