en Don't Want A Muslim Registry? Abolish The Census <p><a href=""><em>Submitted by Alice Salles via The Mises Institute,</em></a></p> <p>As President-elect Donald Trump met with&nbsp;Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach &mdash; a potential pick for head of the Department of Homeland Security &mdash; <strong>the internet lit up <a href="" target="_blank">with the leaked contents of their meeting</a>, triggering another round of talks concerning a possible &ldquo;national registry&rdquo; of Americans or immigrants who subscribe to Islam.</strong></p> <p>While Kobach&rsquo;s plan involves the George W. Bush-era National Security Entry-Exit Registration System (NSEERS) &mdash; a system that remained in place under President Barack Obama until 2011 (only to be <a href="" target="_blank">replaced with a more comprehensive program</a>) &mdash; few caught up to the fact NSEERS only involves the collection and crosschecking of data pertaining to immigrants coming to the United States from Muslim-majority countries. But as news sources ran with the story that Trump could eventually turn this into a registry of American Muslims and immigrants already living in the country, the president-elect&rsquo;s spokesman Jason Miller <a href="" target="_blank">reassured</a> the public that no, a registry system targeting Muslims was not in the cards for the Trump administration.</p> <p><strong>Nevertheless, there is one event in our country&rsquo;s history that serves as a precedent for a system that could effectively single out and help report on specific Americans and immigrants.</strong> But the US government would never be able to put it in place if it wasn&rsquo;t for the presence of the Census Bureau, an agency that <a href="" target="_blank">costs</a> billions of taxpayer dollars yearly.</p> <p>In a recent piece for <em>USA Today</em>, <span class="asset-metabar-author asset-metabar-item">James Bovard&nbsp;</span><a href="" target="_blank">explained</a> that <strong>the Census Bureau sends &ldquo;its hefty American Community Survey to <a href="" target="_blank">more than 3&nbsp;million households</a> a year,&rdquo; collecting personal information regarding the resident&rsquo;s religion, ethnic background, employment history, and even if the resident in question has &ldquo;<a href="" target="_blank">difficulty remembering, concentrating or making decisions</a>.&rdquo;</strong></p> <p>While the agency <a href="" target="_blank">threatens</a> those taking the survey with a $5,000 fine for failing to comply with its demands, it never had to answer to its blatant disregard for the law in the 1940s, when the US government had access to information on Japanese Americans thanks to the data collected by Census workers. <strong>With detailed information in hand, the Army eventually rounded Japanese Americans up, throwing them in internment camps and making this period in the history of the country one of the most infamous legacies of Democratic <a href="" target="_blank">President Franklin D. Roosevelt</a>.</strong></p> <p>In his piece, Bovard added that the detentions are now &ldquo;widely recognized &hellip; as among the largest civil liberties violations in modern U.S.&nbsp;history,&rdquo; prompting Congress to <a href="" target="_blank">vote</a> to compensate victims in 1988. But despite the shame often associated with this episode, it wasn&rsquo;t until the early 2000s that research unveiled documents proving that the Census Bureau had been an important part in this charade, prompting the agency to admit culpability &mdash; but only to a certain extent.</p> <p><strong>To this day, the Census Bureau <a href="" target="_blank">claims</a> it never provided names and addresses of all Japanese Americans. </strong>But despite the bureau&rsquo;s claims, a <a href="" target="_blank">study</a> carried out by William Seltzer of Fordham University and Margo Anderson of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee proved the Secret Service had access to, at least, all the names and addresses of individuals of Japanese ancestry in the Washington, D.C. area thanks to the bureau.</p> <p><strong><em>So if you are concerned that the United States government could &mdash; under a Trump administration or a future administration &mdash; round up any group of Americans and immigrants based solely on their religion or another particular characteristic, tackling the power and inquisitiveness of the US Census Bureau would be a great first step, helping to trim the government&rsquo;s power and ensure the privacy and Fourth Amendment rights of all individuals are being properly protected.</em></strong></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="295" height="145" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> American Community Survey American people of German descent Americans army Barack Obama Bureau of the Census Business Census Bureau Census Bureau Congress Department of Homeland Security Donald Trump Donald Trump Donald Trump presidential campaign Fordham University Islam in the United States Kris Kobach Mises Institute Mises Institute national security Politics Secret Service Social Issues The Apprentice Trump Administration U.S. Census Bureau United States Census United States Census Bureau United States government University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee US government Washington D.C. WWE Hall of Fame Mon, 05 Dec 2016 01:50:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 579523 at And Then There Was One <p>So much has changed in just the 8 months since April 25, 2016, when this "<a href="">White House Photo</a>" of the day was taken. </p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="333" /></a></p> <p>As <a href="">Will Jordan </a>notes, the photo showed a meeting of the world's top political leaders, President Barack Obama talking with European leaders before their meeting in Hannover, Germany. <em></em></p> <p>From left: British Prime Minister David Cameron, the President, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande, and Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. </p> <p>As of this evening, of the five, just one remains on the global political scene. The real question is for how much longer.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="478" height="267" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Angela Merkel Barack Obama Barack Obama David Cameron François Hollande G14 G8 Germany Government International relations Matteo Renzi Politics Politics Prime minister Pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine Renzi Cabinet White House White House Mon, 05 Dec 2016 01:39:42 +0000 Tyler Durden 579532 at These Countries Have Nearly "Eliminated Cash From Circulation" <p><strong>The cashless society is catching up to all of us.</strong> As <a href="">;s Mac Slavo notes</a>,</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>Most of Europe has shifted that way, and now India is forcing the issue. In the United States, people are being acclimated to it, and may soon find that no other option is practical in the highly-digitized online world.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Once that takes hold, the banksters, bureaucrats and hackers will have total information on all your transactions,</strong> purchasing behavior, profiles about consumers, political and social background history and even predictive behavior, allowing them to control the population with ease.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>If/when a major crisis hits, nothing will work if the grid goes down; nothing will take place that isn&rsquo;t strictly authorized</strong> &ndash; apart from a barter and precious metals exchange system that will be marginalized to the pre-digital ghetto.</p> </blockquote> <p>In fact, as <a href="">The Daily Coin&#39;s Rory Hall explains</a> <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>1 out of 3 people in the world never uses cash</strong></span>...</p> <p><strong>We recently learned how serious these criminals are about stealing the&nbsp;sovereignty of every person on planet earth. </strong>Actually, most people are willingly handing over their sovereignty to the banks/government and have no idea what they are actually doing.</p> <p><strong>When India banned (made illegal) the 500 and 1000 rupee banknote this move effected every 1 out of 7 people on planet earth. </strong>That means that every 7th person, anywhere and everywhere, you come in contact with may have been effected by this cash ban.</p> <p>Our individual sovereignty is tied directly to our ability to move freely about. When every step we&nbsp;make is tracked by the bank/government our sovereignty is gone forever. Freely trading commerce is one of the cornerstones of human sovereignty. Without the ability to conduct business with whom we wish, when we wish we are nothing more than cattle to the overlords of the land.</p> <p>An expat living in Thailand sent me an email last week, at the height of India blowing apart because the idiotic decision by <a href="" target="_blank">Prime Minister Modi</a> to eliminate the two most used bank notes in India. The email was to inform me that Thailand would be implementing a new policy in the early part of 2017 to completely eliminate coins from circulation.&nbsp;South Korea&nbsp;has already taken measures to eliminate coins from circulation.</p> <p>Here is a google translation from the <strong>Korean </strong>website <a href=";fb=1" target="_blank"></a>&nbsp;(once you arrive you will need to translate from Korean language)</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>From next year, you can get the change of cash that you bought and paid at a convenience store on your&nbsp;transportation card.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>In the mid to long term, not only transportation cards but also remittance to credit cards and accounts will be promoted, and the industry will be expanded to retail sector such as marts and pharmacies.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The Bank of Korea announced on the 21st [November] that it will provide a service to charge prepaid transportation cards at convenient stores from the first half of next year (2017) as the first stage of the demonstration project to realize &ldquo;a society without coins&rdquo;.</p> </blockquote> <p><strong>What&rsquo;s happening in Thailand?</strong> Well, the government doesn&rsquo;t even bother with trying to cover up the &ldquo;scheme&rdquo; to&nbsp;move people onto the tax farm &ndash; currency enslavement awaits for all that enter the great Bangkok Baht giveaway!!!</p> <p>According to <a href="" target="_blank"></a>&nbsp;(published in July 2016):</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&ldquo;Want to win a million baht? Go for e-payment,&rdquo; says Thailand&rsquo;s junta, offering a lucky draw as an incentive to use the <em>new online payment scheme</em> &ldquo;PromptPay.&rdquo; The government wants to encourage citizens to use the service for business, in an effort to bring some of the massive informal <em>Thai economy onto the books and boost tax revenues</em>.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>As Southeast Asian economies struggle and tax income misses budget targets, Thailand&rsquo;s finance minister is hopeful that a <em>nationwide e-payment scheme</em> can <em>add tax revenue</em> of THB100 billion a year to the coffers.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong has estimated <em>the move will save banks</em> and businesses a combined THB75 billion a year, though other policymakers expect it could take some time for businesses to change their habits. Cash and checks now make up 80 percent of transactions.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>A coup in May 2014 ended months of political unrest, but the generals have struggled to revive <em>Southeast Asia&rsquo;s second-largest economy</em> as exports and consumption remain weak.</p> </blockquote> <p><strong>What about the most populace country on the planet: China? </strong>Well, they are, currently, in fourth place in use of digitized currency behind the U.S., Europe and Brazil. While none of these countries have eliminated cash from circulation, the banks/government&nbsp;make is sound &ldquo;trendy&rdquo;, convenient and oh so cool to never use cash. Why force a policy change&nbsp;when you can convince the people to hand over their freewill?</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><div>Although China still has some way to go before it catches up with countries such as the US and Sweden, the speed at which China has made the shift from cash towards cashless has surprised many. <em>Non-cash payments have been growing by around 40 per cent a year</em> and last year China moved into 4th place in the world for non-cash payments after the US, Europe and Brazil.</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>There are many reasons for China&rsquo;s rapid transition away from cash. One is urbanisation, as non-cash payments are becoming both easy and popular. This is especially the case in top-tier cities such as Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing where it is both trendy and convenient to pay without using cash.</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>There is a huge variety of choices when it comes to making cashless payments and China UnionPay has definitely helped to encourage this, particularly in the case of debit cards, which outnumber credit cards in China by 10 to one. China has more than <em>4 billion cards on issue &ndash; almost enough for each adult to have about three each</em>.</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>Mobile payments have also taken off in <em>China &ndash; it has the largest proportion of people in the world using their mobile phones to make payments, online and physically</em>.<em> <a href="" target="_blank">Source</a></em></div> </blockquote> <p><strong>The purpose of going cashless is not for our &ldquo;convenience&rdquo;, it is specifically for the purpose of &ldquo;saving the banks&rdquo; and tax collections. </strong>Governments and banks could care-less about what is convenient for us. They are only concerned with how much of our wealth they can extract from every person who has any currency.</p> <p>The population of South Korea is 50.22 million people or <strong>said another way about 1/6th the size of the United States.</strong> India, on the other hand, is populated by <a href="" target="_blank">1.33 BILLION people</a> while there are <a href="" target="_blank">7.4 BILLION&nbsp;populating the world</a>.&nbsp;With Thailand making moves to remove cash/coins from the people we need to add their population to the mix as well. With more than 68.22 Million people this brings the number of people that are being forced&nbsp;by their government to use digital currency to a whopping 1.45 BILLION people. If you add 40% of China&rsquo;s population of 1.35 BILLION that equates to approximately 540 million people the number of people currently living within a cashless society breaches 2 Billion people or said another way 1 out of every 3.5 people we come into contact with everyday. Every 4th person you greet has nothing to do with cash. This does not take in account the top 3 nations using digitized currency for their transactions.<strong> If the U.S., Europe and Brazil were calculated we would be well below 1 out of 3 people never using cash for any transaction.</strong></p> <p>Some people that are reading this are telling themselves &ldquo;so what?&rdquo; those are distant far off lands that have nothing to do with the U.S. and this will never happen here. Well, not so fast.</p> <p><strong><a href="" target="_blank">Larry Summers</a>, who&nbsp;is like an embedded tick at the Treasury Department of the United States, <a href="" target="_blank">has called for the elimination of the $100 bill</a>.</strong> With the elimination of the largest denominated bank note from circulation this would effectively kill the use of&nbsp;cash. Why? Because it would eliminate most of the total cash value from circulation in one-fell-swoop.</p> <p><strong>With $1.2 trillion in cash in circulation, as of July 2013 (now three year old information), not just in the United States but&nbsp;<em>around the world,</em> removing the $100 bill would deal a serious blow to the cash balance in circulation. </strong>Maybe not the amount of pieces of paper, but the cash value removed&nbsp;would be huge. Imagine going to a casino and hitting a blackjack table for $2,000 and the cashier hands you bundles of $50 bills (40) or worse, bundles of $20 bills (100)! $2,000 payout at a casino is not that a big deal. Having to handle the sheer volume of bank notes&nbsp;could potentially be a problem for the person receiving the windfall of paper.</p> <p>If you have any misguided notion that a cashless society is not coming, just keep telling yourself that every time you use a debit card, credit card or your phone for your next purchase.<strong><em> With the elimination of cash we effectively hand over our individual human sovereignty to the banks and the government.</em></strong></p> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p>Finally we leave you with Harvard&#39;s latest study on <a href="">which nations would &#39;benefit&#39; the most from going cashless</a>...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 480px;" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="270" height="157" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> 1 cent euro coin Bank of Korea Banknote Brazil Business Cash China Currency Department of the Treasury Economy Google Harvard India Larry Summers mobile phones Money None Penny Precious Metals Shenzhen Southeast Asia Tax Revenue Treasury Department United States dollar Mon, 05 Dec 2016 01:15:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 579508 at All Eyes On Monte Paschi, Whose Bailout Is Now In Doubt, And Italian Bank Sector Contagion <p>As we noted last night, <a href="">when we previewed </a>the virtually assured "No" vote, we said that "a strong “No” vote will cause Prime Minister Renzi to resign, leading to political instability in Italy. <strong>Furthermore, a "No" vote is expected to kill a long-running attempt to rescue Italy's third largest and oldest bank, Monte dei Paschi</strong>, which has been desperate for a private sector bailout ever since it failed this summer's ECB stress test to avoid broader banking sector contagion;<strong> a failure of Monte Paschi will likely spark a fresh eurozone banking crisis, and prompt the ECB to get involved again (as it warned it would do), in a redux of what happened after the Brexit vote</strong>."</p> <p>Sure enough, as <a href="">the WSJ wrote moments ago</a>, "when markets open Monday morning, <strong>all eyes will be on Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Italy's troubled No. 3 lender, </strong><em>which is considered particularly vulnerable to fallout from a 'no' vote, which could complicate its plans to raise capital. Investors will be watching closely for any signs of a run on the bank, </em>a situation that could force the government to move quickly with emergency measures."</p> <p>For those who have not been following the seeming endless bailout saga, and growing crisis, at Italy's third largest - and most insolvent - bank, here is the quick rundown:</p> <ul> <li>2007:&nbsp; Monte dei Paschi buys Banca Antonveneta for EUR9.3 Billion</li> <li>2011:&nbsp; European stress test finds the bank has a capital hole of EUR3.3 billion </li> <li>2012:&nbsp; MPS's chairman and top management are replaced</li> <li>2013:&nbsp; The lender borrows EUR4 billion from the government to stay afloat</li> <li>June 2014: MPS raises EUR5 billion in fresh capital and pays back EUR3 billion of the government loan</li> <li>Nov. 2014:&nbsp; New stress tests find the bank the worst capitalized lender in Europe. The ECB takes over as its supervisor. The bank is officially declared up for sale</li> <li>2015:&nbsp; MPS raises EUR3 billion in fresh capital and pays back the rest of the government loan</li> <li>2016:&nbsp; Announces plan to raise EUR5 billion and sell EUR28 billion in bad loans</li> </ul> <p>Moments ago, the <a href="">FT reported </a>what we said yesterday in an article according to which the "<strong>rescue for the world’s oldest surviving bank Monte dei Paschi di Siena has been thrown into doubt after reformist prime minister Matteo Renzi decisively lost a referendum on constitutional reform on Sunday</strong>."</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Monte Paschi and advisers JP Morgan and Mediobanca will meet as early as Monday morning to decide whether to pull a plan to go ahead with a E5bn recapitalisation, according to people informed of the plan, Rachel Sanderson in Milan reports. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Senior bankers will decide whether to pursue their underwriting commitment or exercise their right to exit the transaction due to adverse market conditions, these people said. In the event the banks drop the capital plan, the Italian state is expect to nationalise the bank, say senior bankers.</p> </blockquote> <p>The FT also adds that if Monte Paschi’s private recapitalisation plan fails, Italy is expected to undertake a precautionary recapitalisation of the bank to avoid it being wound down under new EU rules, say people informed of the plan."One big Monte Paschi investor said the extent of Mr Renzi’s loss was “a really bad result”. This person said they expected the private recapitalisation would be pulled and the Italian state would pump funds into the bank."</p> <p>A precautionary recapitalisation, also known as a dreaded bail-in, would involve burden sharing by junior bondholders but with indemnification for investors up to a maximum of €100,000, said three people. </p> <p>The FT cites officials and bankers who want to head off the risk of a deposit flight from Monte Paschi which has seen its deposits falls by 10 per cent so far this year as concerns about its viability have mounted; alas it is difficult to see how a bailin would achieve that, especially if depositors are impaired.&nbsp;</p> <p>* * * </p> <p> Officials also want to prevent contagion from Monte Paschi hitting Italy’s wider banking sector which is already weighed down by €360n of soured loans, low profitability and more bank branches than pizzerias.</p> <p>Here, as the WSJ adds, should Monte Paschi's third bailout attempt fail, the contagion could be swift, "with Italy’s troubled banks among the biggest victims of Italy's rejection of Matteo Renzi’s proposal to make key changes to the country’s constitution." </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Mr. Renzi's resignation could bring an abrupt end to the government’s efforts to clean up the banking sector, which is suffering from a double whammy of low profitability and huge bad loans.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The prospect of political instability has created volatility in financial markets for weeks and Italian banks have markedly underperformed the rest of the Italian stock market this year. In the case of a ‘no’ vote, which now looks all but nailed on, investors are expected to sell off banking stocks in Italy–and possibly other European countries over contagion fears–when trading opens Monday morning.</p> </blockquote> <p>It's not just Monte Pashi: The vote could also affect plans by UniCredit SpA, Italy’s largest bank, to raise as much as EUR13 billion. The bank is far healthier than Monte dei Paschi and less exposed to the fallout from the 'no' vote, since it could wait for calm to return to the markets before asking shareholders for capital. News could emerge from a Dec. 13 presentation by UniCredit’s top management in London, where they will unveil a new strategy. </p> <p>There is, of course, the ECB, <a href="">which warned last week </a>it is prepared to step in and "temporarily step up purchases of Italian government bonds" if tomorrow's banking sector contagion were to "sharply drive up borrowing costs for the euro zone's largest debtor."</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="276" height="182" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Atlante Banca Antonveneta Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena Bank Banking in Italy Borrowing Costs Business Economy of Italy European Central Bank European Union Eurozone Eurozone Eurozone crisis Fail Financial services Italian government Italy Market Conditions Monte Paschi MPS Capital Services Stress Test SWIFT Volatility Mon, 05 Dec 2016 00:31:44 +0000 Tyler Durden 579528 at North Dakota Tribes, Activists Win After US Denies Permit Needed To Complete Dakota Access Pipeline <p>After months of protests by the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe of North Dakota, among others, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers today effectively shut down the project by refusing to approve the last remaining permit required to complete a segment running under Lake Oahe.&nbsp; Per <a href=";feedName=topNews&amp;utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_medium=Social">Reuters</a>, the permit denial was heavily celebrated by protesters in Cannon Ball, North Dakota but means that Energy Transfer Partners will have to go back to the drawing board to identify a new route for the last segment of the 1,172 mile pipeline that is largely already complete.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>The<strong> U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said on Sunday it turned down a permit for a controversial pipeline project running through North Dakota</strong>, in a victory for Native Americans and climate activists who have protested against the project for several months.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>A celebration erupted at the main protest camp in Cannon Ball, North Dakota, where the Standing Rock Sioux tribe and others have been protesting the 1,172-mile (1,885-km) Dakota Access Pipeline for months.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The line, owned by Texas-based Energy Transfer Partners LP, <strong>had been complete except for a segment planned to run under Lake Oahe, a reservoir formed by a dam on the Missouri River.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>That stretch required an easement from federal authorities,</strong> which delayed a decision on the permit twice, in an effort to consult further with the tribe.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>"The Army will not grant an easement to cross Lake Oahe at the proposed location based on the current record,"</strong> a statement from the U.S. Army said.</p> </blockquote> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Army denies Dakota pipeline permit, in victory for Native tribes <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Reuters Top News (@Reuters) <a href="">December 4, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <p>As the Standing Rock Chairman Dave Archambault II noted, the <strong>tribe will be eternally grateful for Obama's last parting blow to the oil industry</strong>.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>In a statement, Standing Rock Chairman Dave Archambault II thanked activists for their support in the protest effort.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>"The Standing Rock Sioux Tribe and all of Indian Country will be forever grateful to the Obama Administration for this historic decision,"</strong> he said.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>"We want to thank everyone who played a role in advocating for this cause. We thank the tribal youth who initiated this movement."</strong></p> </blockquote> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">I'm in tears. Standing Rock Sioux statement on today's developments. <a href="">#NoDAPL</a> <a href="">#StandingRock</a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Kelly Hayes (@MsKellyMHayes) <a href="">December 4, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Meanwhile, Energy Transfer Partners will now be forced to either find a new route or hope that the Trump administration will reconsider the federal easement required to finish construction.&nbsp; </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>It is unclear what the pipeline route will be, however, and any route would still likely need to cross the Missouri River, probably upstream of Lake Oahe and closer to the state capital of Bismarck.</strong> Many pipelines travel under U.S. waterways already, and pipe is considered a safer way to transport crude oil than rail.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>North Dakota Senator Heidi Heitkamp, a Democrat, nodded to the fact that next steps remain unclear, saying in a statement Sunday that the <strong>pipeline "still remains in limbo."</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>What is also unclear as well is whether the incoming administration of Donald Trump may consider taking up Energy Transfer Partners' request yet again, and approving it.</strong> Trump's transition team last week said that he was supportive of the line, in addition to other pipeline development.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>"We're hopeful that when the Trump administration takes office it will look at all of the priorities it has and that putting at risk the water supply of the Standing Rock Sioux isn't on their list,"</strong> said Michael Brune, executive director of the Sierra Club</p> </blockquote> <p>As we<a href=""> noted a few days ago</a>, Trump has expressed support for the completion of the Dakota Access Pipeline though his support has been complicated by his personal investments in Energy Transfer Partners.&nbsp; Maybe it's the cynic in us, but we find it curious that, after sitting silent on this issue for months, the Obama administration, with just a few weeks left in office, would now decide to take definitive action on this issue...just a little parting gift for Trump.</p> <p>Meanwhile, Paul Ryan, who has been cozying up to the Trump administration in recent weeks, tweeted this moments after the announcement: "<em>This is big-government decision-making at its worst. I look forward to putting this anti-energy presidency behind us.</em>"</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This is big-government decision-making at its worst. I look forward to putting this anti-energy presidency behind us. <a href=""></a></p> <p>&mdash; Paul Ryan (@SpeakerRyan) <a href="">December 5, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//" charset="utf-8"></script> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="692" height="389" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> army Bakken pipeline Cannon Ball, North Dakota Crude Crude Oil Dakota Dakota Access Pipeline Dakota Access Pipeline protests Donald Trump Donald Trump Energy Transfer Partners Geography of South Dakota Geography of the United States Lake Oahe Lakota Missouri River Native American tribes in Nebraska Oahe Dam Obama Administration Obama administration Plains tribes Reuters Sioux South Dakota Standing Rock Indian Reservation Trump Administration Twitter Twitter U.S. Army Corps of Engineers United States Army Mon, 05 Dec 2016 00:05:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 579520 at Matteo Renzi Says He Will Resign After Losing Referendum <p>As was reported earlier, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is expected to deliver a statement on the Italian referendum at midnight Italian time. According to Italy's RAI, the statement has been delayed by 20 minutes. It is unclear what the topic of Renzi's statement will be although speculation is rampant that the 41 year old prime minister may announce his resignation, opening the way for a new government and/or new elections.</p> <p>Moments ago, the Twitter-loving prime minister, sent out the following tweet to his nearly 2.8 million followed: "Thanks to all of you. In a few minutes I will be speaking to you directly from Palazzo Chigi. Long live Italy. PS Am coming, am coming' </p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="it">Grazie a tutti, comunque. Tra qualche minuto sarò in diretta da Palazzo Chigi. Viva l'Italia! <br />Ps Arrivo, arrivo????</p> <p>— Matteo Renzi (@matteorenzi) <a href="">December 4, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><p>Watch Renzi's speech live below:</p> <p><iframe src="" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <p>Among the key headlines, Renzi says "I have lost, and adds that, despite the result, the high turnout and the vivid<br /> electoral campaign, the referendum has<br /> been a "feast of democracy." He takes full responsibility for the defeat and says "No" leaders now have great responsibilities. Other highlights:</p> <ul> <li>RENZI CONCEDES REFERENDUM DEFEAT, SAYING PEOPLE HAVE SPOKEN</li> <li>ITALY PM RENZI SAYS I TAKE FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR DEFEAT</li> <li>RENZI: "NO" LEADERS NOW HAVE GREAT RESPONSIBILITIES</li> <li>RENZI: WE HAVE FAILED IN CONVINCING CITIZENS, WE WANTED TO WIN</li> </ul> <p>And there it is: <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Renzi says he intends to resign and adds that his government ends here:</strong></span></p> <ul> <li>RENZI SAYS HE WILL OFFER HIS RESIGNATION TO PRESIDENT</li> <li>RENZI: MY GOVERNMENT ENDS HERE</li> </ul> <p>Renzi also said that he is not ready to stay on as the head of a caretaker government, saying "<strong>I look forward to greeting my successor with a smile, whoever he is.</strong>" </p> <p>* * * </p> <p>So now that Renzi has stepped down here are <a href="">three possible scenarios</a>, via the WSJ:</p> <p style="padding-left: 30px;"><strong>1. New Renzi Government - this is now unlikely after Renzi's farewell speech:</strong></p> <p>Italian President Sergio Mattarella could ask Mr. Renzi to reshuffle his cabinet and form a new government. However, Mr. Renzi has said in recent days that he is unlikely to accept such an option, given that he would be in a much-weakened position following the vote.</p> <p style="padding-left: 30px;"><strong>2. A Caretaker Administration:</strong></p> <p><strong>&nbsp;</strong>Mr. Mattarella could ask someone else to lead a new government with a limited mandate to oversee the drafting of a new electoral law and pass the 2017 budget. One candidate is Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan, who could help soothe markets that have been nervous about political instability following a no vote. Others include Pietro Grasso, speaker of Italy’s Senate, and Dario Franceschini, the current culture minister.</p> <p style="padding-left: 30px;"><strong>3. Electoral-Law Snarl:</strong></p> <p>Major political parties are pushing to change an electoral law passed last year that would give extra seats in Parliament to any party winning 40% or more of the vote. That measure was intended to make for more stable governments. Establishment politicians now worry that it could help the populist 5 Star Movement gain power and want to rewrite the rules before any new national election.</p> <p>* * * </p> <p>Meanwhile the EURUSD has tumbled to the lowest level since March 2015. </p> <p><img src="" width="500" height="281" /></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="658" height="392" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Beppe Grillo Caretaker Administration Democratic Party Five Star Movement Government headlines Italy Italy Italy’s Senate Maria Elena Boschi Matteo Matteo Renzi New Renzi Government Palazzo Chigi Politics Politics Politics of Italy Populism Prime minister Prime Ministers of Italy Renzi Renzi Cabinet Rick Renzi Sergio Mattarella Star Movement Sun, 04 Dec 2016 23:37:47 +0000 Tyler Durden 579521 at Apple Officially Enters Self-Driving Car Race <p><a href=""><em>Submitted by Michael Shedlock via,</em></a></p> <p><strong>The race for self-driving car technology heats up.</strong></p> <p>Apple officially tossed its hat into the ring with <strong>a letter from Steve Kenner, Apple&rsquo;s director of product integrity, to the US National Highway Safety Administration.</strong></p> <p>Rumors of a secret autonomous vehicle lab surfaced earlier this year but Apple denied them. Apple can no longer hide its intent.<br /><span id="more-42531">&nbsp;</span></p> <p><a href=""><img alt="apple-race" class="alignnone size-large wp-image-42532" height="316" src=";h=316" width="529" /></a></p> <p>Please consider <a href=";segmentId=3d08be62-315f-7330-5bbd-af33dc531acb" target="_blank">Apple Reveals Plans for Self-Driving Car</a>.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><a href="">Apple</a> has for the first time publicly acknowledged its <a href="">plans to develop self-driving cars</a>, with a letter that urges the US highways regulator to promote &ldquo;fair competition&rdquo; between newcomers to the automotive industry and traditional manufacturers.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>In an unusually direct statement accompanying the letter, an Apple spokesman confirmed its work on autonomous systems that could be used to transform &ldquo;the future of transportation&rdquo;. Apple&rsquo;s letter touts the &ldquo;significant societal benefits of automated vehicles&rdquo;, which it described as a life-saving technology, potentially preventing millions of car crashes and thousands of fatalities each year.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The disclosure highlights how Apple may struggle to maintain its notorious secrecy in new product development as it enters more highly regulated markets, from transportation to healthcare.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Hundreds of Apple staff have been working on an electric car for more than two years, people familiar with the project say. The Financial Times <a href="">first reported the secret research lab</a>, which is based outside its Cupertino headquarters in neighbouring Sunnyvale, in February last year.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Since then, despite leaks about the project&rsquo;s <a href="" target="_blank">sometimes difficult progress</a>, Apple executives have refused to admit that the automotive initiative exists.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>That position will be harder to maintain after the publication of a <a href="" target="_blank">letter from Apple to the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration</a>, as part of the regulator&rsquo;s regular dialogue with manufacturers about its rules for the fast-developing technology. The letter was signed by Steve Kenner, Apple&rsquo;s director of product integrity, and was submitted on November 22.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>An Apple spokesman confirmed the letter, giving the clearest statement yet of the company&rsquo;s intentions.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>In one of the five-page letter&rsquo;s more controversial passages, Apple says that manufacturers should pool their data as they develop automated systems, to help everyone identify the multitude of unusual situations or &ldquo;edge cases&rdquo; that cars might encounter on the roads.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;Companies should share de-identified scenario and dynamics data from crashes and near-misses,&rdquo; Apple writes. &ldquo;By sharing data, the industry will build a more comprehensive data set than any one company could create alone.&rdquo;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;Because automated vehicles promise such a broad and deep human impact, companies should consider the ethical dimensions of them in comparably broad and deep terms,&rdquo; Apple writes. These considerations include privacy, how the cars&rsquo; software systems make decisions and the impact on employment and public spaces, it says.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Experts are divided on whether driverless cars could cause huge congestion or clear the roads, and on the extent to which they might free up space in cities that was previously used for parking lots and garages to build new housing or parks. Automation of jobs such as taxi and truck drivers might increase unemployment among low-skilled workers, some analysts have warned.</p> </blockquote> <p><u><strong>Another Competitor</strong></u></p> <p>As I have been saying for years, self-driving cars and trucks will eliminate millions of jobs no later than a 2022-2024 timeframe.</p> <p>My number one reason was competition. Add Apple to the list of competitors.</p> <p>That said, reading between the lines, Apple may be far behind. If Apple was ahead, it just might not be promoting data sharing.</p> <p>Regardless, Apple has significant resources and wants a piece of the pie. Competition is officially up.</p> <p><u><strong>How Many Jobs Lost?</strong></u></p> <p>My statement that &ldquo;millions of long haul truck driving jobs will vanish in the 2022-2024 time frame&rdquo; is likely way off on the low side if one counts Uber, taxi, and chauffeur driven vehicles.</p> <p>Take a look at Uber&rsquo;s goal once again: &ldquo;<em>replace Uber&rsquo;s more than 1?million human drivers with robot drivers&mdash;as quickly as possible.&rdquo; </em></p> <p><em><strong>That&rsquo;s just Uber. And those jobs will vanish. All of them. What about Lyft? Taxis?</strong></em></p> <p><u><strong>Related Articles</strong></u></p> <ul> <li>November 28: <a href="" target="_blank">&ldquo;Otto&rdquo; Self-Driving Truck Test on Ohio Roads this Week</a></li> <li>September 20: <a href="" target="_blank">DOT Embraces Self Driving Vehicles: &ldquo;Rise of New Technology is Inevitable, Unknowns Today Become Knowns Tomorrow&rdquo;</a></li> <li>August 24: <a href="" target="_blank">New Lidar Chips for Self-Driving Vehicles are Smaller Than a Dime, Cost $10 to Manufacture</a></li> <li>July 26: <a href="" target="_blank">What a City With Driverless Cars Will Look Like (In 10 Years or Less)</a></li> <li>May 17:<a href="" target="_blank"> Ex-Google Engineers Launch &ldquo;Otto&rdquo;: Completely Driverless Truck Testing Underway</a></li> </ul> <p><em>For further discussion, including a rebuttal to the often stated claim that driverless vehicles cannot work in snow, please see <a href="" target="_blank">Uber Offers Driverless Rides This Month! What About Snow, Rain, Pigeons, 80-Year-Olds on Roller Skates?</a></em></p> <p><em><strong>My long-stated timeframe for millions of long-haul trucking jobs to vanish by the 2022-2024 is likely too distant.</strong></em></p> <p><em>The components are all in place. Regulation has five years to catch up, and it will. Competition ensures success and DOT is already on board.</em></p> <p><em>Amusingly, some accused me of being &ldquo;religious&rdquo; when it comes to self-driving vehicles. This is not religion, this is science, and it will happen far sooner than deniers think, and quite possibly sooner than I think.</em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="288" height="136" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Apple Apple Inc. Autonomous car Business Car sharing Emerging technologies life-saving technology Ohio Otto Technology Technology Transport Uber Uberisation Unemployment Unmanned ground vehicles US National Highway Safety Administration US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Vehicular automation Sun, 04 Dec 2016 23:30:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 579506 at Trump Saber Rattles China, Heightens His Anti-Globalist Rhetoric on Twitter <p>At some point, the non believers will have to start learning the old fashioned way. Trump has been very transparent from day 1. If you fuck with American business or its people, he's going to use the full powers of his office to exact a reckoning. Since the election, the mindless drones on Wall Street have taken a very bullish position on China -- bidding up steel, aluminum and copper stocks without a care in the world. If Trump is truly sincere about protecting US industry from unfair and corrupt Chinese trade practices, which entails dumping and currency manipulation, as well as unfair taxation on US goods entering the country, then this entire dream of a run will be revoked and the nightmare for the status quo will begin -- in earnest. Trump talks to the people directly, laying into China and setting a tone.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en"><img src="" width="512" height="272" /></p> </blockquote> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">He continues.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">their country (the U.S. doesn't tax them) or to build a massive military complex in the middle of the South China Sea? I don't think so!</p> <p>— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="">December 4, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><p>Obviously, this is in response to the media's absurd objections to Trump accepting a phone call from the democratically elected President of Taiwan, which was deriding by the left because it might upset the apple cart of the status quo relationship with communist China. Think about that.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-video"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">This new Taiwan scandal proves that Trump is literally Hitler. <a href=""></a></p> <p> — Paul Joseph Watson (@PrisonPlanet) <a href="">December 3, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Content originally generated at&nbsp;<a href="" style="font-size: 13.008px;"></a></p> <script src="//"></script> American people of German descent Apple Business China Climate change skepticism and denial Copper Donald Trump Donald Trump presidential campaign Dumping Economy HTML HTML element Political positions of Donald Trump Politics Rage South China Status quo The Apprentice Trump Trump: The Art of the Deal Twitter Twitter WWE Hall of Fame Sun, 04 Dec 2016 23:10:56 +0000 The_Real_Fly 579522 at Baltimore Cops Ask For Help After 73-Year-Old Man Stabbed To Death In Broad Daylight <p><a href=""><em>Submitted by Kristinn Taylor via The Gateway Pundit blog,</em></a></p> <p><strong>Seeking help from the public in identifying the killer, Baltimore police released a video Saturday of the murder of an elderly man who was stabbed to death by a young Black male in broad daylight on a main Baltimore highway Friday afternoon</strong>.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Video shows attacker stabbing 73-year-old man <a href=""></a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>&mdash; WBAL Baltimore News (@wbaltv11) <a href="">December 3, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//" charset="utf-8"></script><p><em>&ldquo;Video shows attacker stabbing 73-year-old man <a href="”" title="”">”</a></em></p> <p><strong>The video shows the elderly man standing on a sidewalk holding a cane and carrying a package exchanging words with a young Black male wearing a hoodie.</strong></p> <p>The elderly man walks away and the young Black male walks up behind him, grabs the man and throws him on the grass by the sidewalk. The elderly man tries to use his cane to fend off the young Black male. The young Black male pulls what appears to be a knife from his pocket and tries repeatedly with his right hand to stab the elderly man sprawled on his back on the grass. The young Black male stabs the elderly in the side, but then the elderly man kicks the young Black male away several times. <strong>Eventually the young Black male is able to lunge past the elderly man&rsquo;s legs and stabs him in the gut</strong>.</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="" width="560"></iframe></p> <p>Baltimore police posted the following description with the video.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>Search is on for suspect in murder of 73 y/o man on Pulaski Hwy.</p> <p>Southeast District<br />Homicide Investigation</p> <p>On December 2, 2016, at approximately 4:00pm, officers were called to the intersection of Pulaski Highway and Highland Avenue for a report of a stabbing. When officers arrived, they found a 73-year old man with a stab wound to his stomach. The victim was transported to an area hospital where he later died from his injuries.</p> <p>Homicide detectives were called to the scene and are investigating this incident. Detectives believe the victim was involved in an argument when was stabbed by a suspect. Anyone with information is asked to call Metro Crime Stoppers at 1-866-7Lockup.</p> <p>Suspect:<br />Black Male, approx. 5&rsquo;9&Prime;-5&rsquo;10&rdquo;, thin build, dark complexion, early 20s, wearing an Army green coat with possible scars or tattoos on his face.&rdquo;</p> </blockquote> <p><strong>Police have not released the murder victim&rsquo;s name nor anymore about him beyond his sex, age and that he walked with a cane.</strong></p> <p>The video of the attack does not show the complete attack as police in the YouTube video state that several people tried to pull the young Black male off the elderly man. That effort by the Good Samaritans is not shown.</p> <p><u><strong>So far, there are no reported riots in Baltimore over this unprovoked murder of an unarmed elderly man.</strong></u></p> <p><em>In an effort to reach as many people as possible to solve the case as soon as possible, Baltimore police also posted the video of the murder to <a href="" target="_blank">Facebook</a> and <a href="" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.</em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="444" height="234" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Baltimore police Baltimore Police Department Death of Freddie Gray Good Samaritans Homicide: Life on the Street Law Twitter Twitter Sun, 04 Dec 2016 22:45:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 579501 at "My Government Ends Here" Renzi Resigns After Losing Italian Referendum: The Full Rundown <p>To summarize, this is what has happened so yet another major blow to the European political status quo:</p> <ol> <li>Italy PM Renzi lost by a huge margin, with the latest estimate somewhere around 59% voting &quot;No&quot; to Renzi&#39;s proposed constitutional referendum.</li> <li>In a speech moments after the results were announced, Renzi confirmed he would hand in his resignation tomorrow, adding he isn&#39;t available to lead a caretaker government in a blow to many sellside forecasters he would do just that</li> <li>As Bloomberg notes, the scale of the loss and how quickly it happened cast a huge shadow on the fate of the continent headed into 2017.</li> <li>Italy&#39;s opposition parties, from Grillo&#39;s Five Star Movement to Calvini&#39;s &quot;Northern League&quot; to Berlusconi&#39;s Forza Italia, seem to be aiming for early elections as soon as possible, &quot;after making a few tweaks to the current electoral law.&quot; Grillo said this can be done in &quot;one week.&quot;</li> <li>The blow out result of the referendum is a confirmation that anti-euro populists are ascendent in Europe. Expect more long nights in the months to come, especially in France and the Netherlands which are the two next big potential dominoes to fall.</li> <li>What&#39;s next? According to Bloomberg, &quot;Italy is in for a period of high instability. The prospect of a prolonged, bitter electoral campaign won&#39;t do any good to the country&#39;s already anemic recovery. Not to mention its battered banks who may have to ask for public aid.&quot;</li> <li>The EURUSD dropped to the lowest level since March 2015, sliding uner 1.05 briefly, but has since recovered some of its initial losses:</li> </ol> <p>&quot;The experience of my government ends here,&quot; Renzi said in a televised address to the nation after early voting results suggested his &#39;Yes&#39; camp may have lost the referendum by as much as 20 points.</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" height="398" src="" width="598" /></a></p> <p><em>Renzexit first, Quitaly next?</em></p> <p>Renzi said he took full responsibility for the &quot;extraordinarily clear&quot; defeat and that on Monday afternoon he would convene his cabinet and then hand in his resignation to President Sergio Mattarella.</p> <p>Meanwhile, not wasting any time, the man who would likely win an election if one were held today, Five Star founder Beppe Grillo, said in a <a href="http://Un discorso di dignita' senza precedenti per la politica italiana">blog post </a>that Italians need elections as soon as possible, adding that the election law for the lower house can be the current one, even though the movement has &quot;always criticized it&quot; and says a new election law for the Senate, with tweaks to make it more governable, can be done in one week.</p> <p>At the same time, Italy&#39;s Salvini, leader of the &quot;Northern League&quot;, smelling blood and an opportunity to pounce, said he is ready for elections with any Law, according to ANSA.</p> <p>The result of today&#39;s events has hit the EURUSD first and foremost:</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 317px;" /></a></p> <p>&ldquo;Expect volatility premiums to rise and the euro to trade below $1.05 against the dollar, potentially testing last year&rsquo;s low of $1.0460 in a &lsquo;no&rsquo; vote scenario,&rdquo; Petr Krpata of ING Groep said before the referendum. &ldquo;While the market is positioning for the risk of &lsquo;no&rsquo; vote outcome, a knee-jerk reaction is still likely to be a lower euro&rdquo; as it would &ldquo;underline the upcoming risk&rdquo; of other elections in Europe.</p> <p>After the referendum, Daisuke Karakama, chief market economist for Mizuho said the EURUSD may fall to 1.02 in January-March period as European elections make investors wary. First reaction to Renzi resigning is EUR selling, JPY buying, but more important event is parliament dissolution and general election in Italy which may not occur until 2017. Daisuke says elections in Netherlands, France, Germany and Italy next year keep euro pressured. He also notes that Italy isn&rsquo;t a factor-snapping trend of Trump rally and won&rsquo;t be trigger for all-out JPY buying as market sentiment is somewhere between risk-on and risk-off.</p> <p>As Bloomberg&#39;s Flavie Krause-Jackson put it, &quot;tonight&#39;s stunning defeat of Renzi by a much larger margin that expected throws into sharp relief the challenges that lie ahead for European centrist leaders. At this point it&#39;s almost impossible to discount even more shocks. We expected a close race, what we got was a very clear message that people will not tolerate the status quo and are willing to burn the house down regardless of their interests. And to be clear, the political instability that will follow will benefit very few.&quot;</p> <p>And sure enough, as noted above, Italy&#39;s opposition parties quickly called for early elections moments after Renzi said he was resigning: &quot;<strong>Sovereignty is with the people, from now on we will start applying our Constitution. Let&#39;s go immediately to the polls!&quot; </strong>the founder of Italy&#39;s anti-establishment 5-Star Movement, comedian-turned-politician Beppe Grillo, wrote in a tweet as official results started coming in.</p> <p>The leader of Italy&#39;s anti-euro Northern League, Matteo Salvini, also called for immediate elections. &quot;We need to vote as soon as possible,&quot; Mr. Salvini said in a press conference, asking to bring forward the next general elections, which would be slated for the spring of 2018. Both the 5-Star and the Northern League will try to capitalize on Mr. Renzi&#39;s sound defeat in the referendum, which saw the &quot;No&quot; prevailing with almost 60% of votes, according to partial data.</p> <p>According to the latest opinion polls, the 5-Star Movement is neck-and-neck with Mr. Renzi&#39;s center-left Democratic Party at around 30% and could aim at heading the next government, if Italian president Sergio Mattarella decides to accept Mr. Renzi&#39;s resignation.</p> <p>* * *</p> <p>The rejection of Renzi&rsquo;s reform means <strong>Italy&rsquo;s government bonds, which have been the euro zone&rsquo;s worst performers in the past six months, may drop Monday.</strong> The bond market opens at 8 a.m. Rome time (2am ET). The yield premium demanded by investors for owning the nation&rsquo;s 10-year bonds instead of benchmark German bunds surged on Nov. 28 to the most since June 2015, before rebounding last week as Italian stocks also gained.</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 310px;" /></a></p> <p>The nation&rsquo;s benchmark FTSE MIB Index of shares, which start trading at 9 a.m. in Rome (3amET), has dropped about 20% this year, and may extend its decline on Monday.</p> <p><strong>So what happens next?</strong> <a href="">We leave it to Doug Casey to sum it all up succinctly:</a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>December 4 referendum fails&nbsp;&gt;&gt;&nbsp;M5S comes to power&nbsp;&gt;&gt;&nbsp;Italians vote to leave the euro currency&nbsp;&gt;&gt;&nbsp;European Union collapses</strong></span></p> </blockquote> <p><a href="">Here is The Wall Street Journal</a> to explain in more detail what happens next...</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>New Renzi Government: </strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Italian President Sergio Mattarella could ask Mr. Renzi to reshuffle his cabinet and form a new government. However, Mr. Renzi has said in recent days that he is unlikely to accept such an option, given that he would be in a much-weakened position following the vote.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>A Caretaker Administration</strong>:</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Mr. Mattarella could ask someone else to lead a new government with a limited mandate to oversee the drafting of a new electoral law and pass the 2017 budget. One candidate is Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan, who could help soothe markets that have been nervous about political instability following a no vote. Others include Pietro Grasso, speaker of Italy&rsquo;s Senate, and Dario Franceschini, the current culture minister.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Electoral-Law Snarl</strong>:</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Major political parties are pushing to change an electoral law passed last year that would give extra seats in Parliament to any party winning 40% or more of the vote. That measure was intended to make for more stable governments. Establishment politicians now worry that it could help the <a class="icon none" href="">populist 5 Star Movement</a> gain power and want to rewrite the rules before any new national election.</p> </blockquote> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p>Update #6: Renzi&#39;s Speech:</p> <ul> <li><strong>RENZI CONCEDES REFERENDUM DEFEAT, SAYING PEOPLE HAVE SPOKEN</strong></li> <li><strong>ITALY PM RENZI SAYS I TAKE FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR DEFEAT</strong></li> <li><strong>RENZI: &quot;NO&quot; LEADERS NOW HAVE GREAT RESPONSIBILITIES</strong></li> <li><strong>RENZI: WE HAVE FAILED IN CONVINCING CITIZENS, WE WANTED TO WIN</strong></li> <li><strong>RENZI SAYS HE WILL OFFER HIS RESIGNATION TO PRESIDENT</strong></li> <li><strong>RENZI: MY GOVERNMENT ENDS HERE</strong></li> </ul> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p>Update #5: Renzi just tweeted to his 2.77 million followers: &quot;<em><strong>Thanks to all of you anyway. In a few minutes I will be speaking to you directly from Palazzo Chigi. Long live Italy! PS Am coming, am coming....</strong></em>&quot;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="it">Grazie a tutti, comunque. Tra qualche minuto sarò in diretta da Palazzo Chigi. Viva l&#39;Italia!<br />Ps Arrivo, arrivo????</p> <p>&mdash; Matteo Renzi (@matteorenzi) <a href="">December 4, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//" charset="utf-8"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p>Update #4: <strong>Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is likely to meet President Sergio Mattarella early Monday,</strong> as exit polls show he&rsquo;s suffered a heavy defeat in a referendum on constitutional reform, according to a government official who asked not to be named. Renzi has pledged to resign if his plans to overhaul the constitution are rejected by voters.</p> <p>Seems pretty clear...</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Italy, Constitutional Referendum:</p> <p>Lead for..</p> <p>Yes: Three Regions<br />No: 17 Regions<a href="">#ExitPoll</a> <a href="">#Referendum</a> <a href="">#italyreferendum</a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>&mdash; Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) <a href="">December 4, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//" charset="utf-8"></script><p>EURUSD keeps sliding...getting close to some very srious support levels:</p> <ul> <li><strong>1.0524 is Dec 2015 lows</strong></li> <li><strong>1.0518 is 11/24 lows</strong></li> <li><strong>1.0458 is Mar 2015 lows</strong></li> </ul> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 312px;" /></a></p> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p>Update #3: <strong>First Projections confirm exit polls</strong> - wide margin of victory for &quot;no&quot; defeat for Renzi...</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Italy, constitutional referendum result: 0.0002% counted:</p> <p>No: 54.7%<br />Yes: 45.3%<a href="">#referendumcostituzionale</a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>&mdash; Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) <a href="">December 4, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//" charset="utf-8"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p>Update #2: Following the exit polls and the market&#39;s response, <strong>&quot;Northern League&quot; leader Salvini has called for early elections</strong>:</p> <ul> <li><strong>SALVINI: NO VICTORY WOULD MEAN PEOPLE DEFEATING ESTABLISHMENT</strong></li> <li><strong>ITALY NORTHERN LEAGUE LEADER CALLS FOR EARLY ELECTIONS: MNI</strong></li> </ul> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p>Update #1: The Exit polls have begun:</p> <ul> <li><strong>*ITALY REFERENDUM: &#39;NO&#39; AT 55%-59% IN EMG EXIT POLL</strong></li> <li><strong>*ITALY REFERENDUM: &#39;NO&#39; AT 55%-59% IN TECNE EXIT POLL</strong></li> <li><strong>*ITALY REFERENDUM: &#39;NO&#39; AT 54%-58% IN RAI EXIT POLL</strong></li> </ul> <p><a href=""><strong><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 363px;" /></strong></a></p> <p><span>Exit polls have at times proved unreliable in Italy, underestimating Renzi&rsquo;s 2014 victory in European elections by 10 percentage points, but for now, the market seems convinced...</span></p> <p>EURUSD is tumbling...</p> <p><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 313px;" /></p> <p>Some comments from anti-establishmentarians have begin:</p> <ul> <li><strong>LE PEN AIDE ON ITALIAN REFERENDUM RESULT TWEETS &#39;IT&#39;S A GREAT VICTORY FOR THE PEOPLE...IT&#39;S FOR OTHER NATIONS TO BE SET FREE&#39;</strong></li> </ul> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Hope the exit polls in Italy are right. This vote looks to me to be more about the Euro than constitutional change.</p> <p>&mdash; Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) <a href="">December 4, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//" charset="utf-8"></script><p>Turnout was high.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <ul> <li><strong>*ITALY REFERENDUM: ITALIANS ABROAD TURNOUT 30.9%:FOREIGN OFFICE</strong></li> </ul> <p><u><strong>How did we get here? </strong></u>Here&#39;s a quick timeline from Bloomberg&#39;s Marco Bertacche</p> <ul> <li>April 15, 2014: The Senate approves first version of reform, backed by Renzi allies and Berlusconi&#39;s party</li> <li>Jan. 31, 2015: Renzi&#39;s candidate is elected president of the republic, prompting Berlusconi to withdraw support for reforms</li> <li>April 12, 2016: Lower house completes approval, lacking two-thirds majority needed to avoid referendum</li> <li>Aug. 4, 2016: Highest court accepts referendum request with more than 500,000 signatures from Yes campaign</li> <li>Sept. 26, 2016: Renzi&#39;s cabinet calls for Dec. 4 referendum. Decision is binding</li> </ul> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p>As we detailed earlier, <span><strong>Italians voted Sunday in a referendum on constitutional reforms that Premier Matteo Renzi has staked his political future on</strong>, hoping to survive the rising populist forces that have gained traction across Europe.</span></p> <p><strong>Renzi has said he will resign if the reforms, which he contends will modernize Italy and reduce its legendary bureaucracy, are rejected. </strong>Opposition politicians, ranging from the far-right to the far-left have vowed to press for a new government if voters reject Parliamentary legislation overhauling much of the post-war Constitution.</p> <p>Even some figures in Renzi&#39;s Democratic Party, including ex-Communists, said they&#39;d vote against the reforms.</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 397px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Polling stations are open from 7 a.m. to 11 p.m. local time (5pmET).</strong></p> <p><a href="">Bloomberg </a>lays out what to expect, and when...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 320px;" /></a></p> <h2><u>1500ET</u></h2> <p><strong>Provisional turnout results</strong> for the vote as of 7 p.m. CET could indicate whether turnout is high in the South and Sicily, where anti-establishment parties are strong, which would signal bad news for Renzi. <em><strong>A high turnout in the Center and Northwest, his strongholds, may not be enough for him but could narrow the final margin. Renzi has indicated he&rsquo;s aiming for a 60 percent turnout.</strong></em></p> <p>Overall turnout was around the 60% Renzi had expected, with a <strong>higher turnout in the North (more pro-Renzi)</strong> and <strong>lower turnout in the South (more anti-establishment)...</strong></p> <p><a href=""><img height="480" src="" width="600" /></a></p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 478px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2><u>1800ET</u></h2> <p><strong>Exit polls are published by at least three TV networks (RAI, LA7, Mediaset)</strong>. Exit polls have often gotten it wrong in Italy. In the 2013 and 2006 general elections they overestimated the center-left&rsquo;s lead by more than 5 points, and in 2008 they underestimated Silvio Berlusconi&rsquo;s lead by 7 points. In the 2014 European elections, Renzi&rsquo;s Democratic Party got almost 10 points more than exit polls predicted.</p> <p><strong>Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi to speak at about midnight local time (6pmET)</strong> at his Rome residence, newswire Ansa citing his office.</p> <h2><u>1830-1845ET</u></h2> <p><strong>First projections on counted votes may be published on TV stations.</strong> Votes will be counted continuously and updated on the Interior Ministry&rsquo;s website throughout the night. A national total as well as regional and city breakdowns will be available.</p> <h2><u>1900ET</u></h2> <p><strong>First provisional results from cities usually faster at counting votes should start coming in.</strong> Before a two-week poll blackout period, the &ldquo;Yes&rdquo; and &ldquo;No&rdquo; camps polled virtually even in the Northwest (Milan, Turin) and in the Center (Bologna), with the &quot;No&quot; side clearly ahead in the South (Naples) and in Sicily (Palermo). Milan could give the earliest real indication of where things are going. Traditionally a Berlusconi stronghold, it swung to center-left administrations in past years and elected a center-left mayor backing Renzi&rsquo;s reforms in June. A wide lead for &ldquo;No&rdquo; in Milan could mean Renzi loses nationally.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2><u>1900-2000ET</u></h2> <p><strong>New projections</strong> could indicate a winner before real vote counting is complete.</p> <h2><u>Before 2200ET</u></h2> <p><strong>There may be a final result of counted votes nationally,</strong> but results from 4 million Italians abroad, who were eligible to vote until Dec. 1, could come later. While their turnout is typically lower than the national average, they have trended toward center-left candidates in recent elections and are usually pro-government. These voters weren&rsquo;t included in pre-blackout polls. Their votes could come into play if the referendum margin is very close. Reports indicate that turnout for Italians abroad was higher than expected.</p> <h2><u>0200ET</u></h2> <p>Matteo Renzi is known to be <strong>tweeting extensively </strong>and could announce his decision on whether to offer his resignation, based on the referendum results, through social media.</p> <p><strong>So what happens next?</strong> <a href="">We leave it to Doug Casey to sum it all up succinctly:</a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>December 4 referendum fails&nbsp;&gt;&gt;&nbsp;M5S comes to power&nbsp;&gt;&gt;&nbsp;Italians vote to leave the euro currency&nbsp;&gt;&gt;&nbsp;European Union collapses</strong></span></p> </blockquote> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1280" height="642" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> 5-Star Movement Berlusconi's party Bond Caretaker Administration Dario Franceschini Democratic Party Democratic Party Democratic Party (Italy) leadership election Elections in Italy European Union European Union Euroscepticism Exit poll Forza Italia Forza Italia France FTSE MIB Germany Government Highest court Interior Ministry Italian centre-left primary election Italy Italy ITALY NORTHERN LEAGUE Italy’s government Italy’s Senate Just a Yes Lega Nord Maria Elena Boschi Market Sentiment Matteo Renzi Netherlands New Renzi Government Next Italian general election Northern League Northwest Pietro Grasso Politics Politics of Europe Politics of Italy recovery Referendum Renzi Renzi Cabinet Rick Renzi Senate Sergio Mattarella Silvio Berlusconi Star Movement Volatility Wall Street Journal Sun, 04 Dec 2016 22:09:01 +0000 Tyler Durden 579517 at