en Turkey Arrests Journalists Who Exposed Erdogan's Weapons Smuggling To Extremist Syrian Rebels <p>One of Turkish president Recep Erdogan's key contentions in the ongoing diplomatic spat with Russia is that everything that Russia has accused Turkey of doing, from funding the Islamic State's oil purchases, to providing weapons for Syrian "rebels" intent on eradicating the Assad regime, is unfounded slander without a shred of evidence. </p> <p>Here is the problem: evidence does exist, as we showed two days ago, <a href="">when we presented the role Erdogan's son Bilal has played in ISIS oil transit</a>, and not only that but also proof that Turkey has been smuggling weapons to Syria as the editor and a reporter from Turkey's Cumhuriyet newspaper showed some time ago. </p> <p>And in order to eradicate the evidence against him, yesterday Erdogan did what every dictator does when feeling threatened: he had the editor and his reported detained, jailed and accused of espionage precisely over the controversial story about an alleged arms shipment from Turkish intelligence to Syrian rebels.</p> <p>The two Cumhuriyet journalists were accused of “political or military spying” by reporting “classified information” and “deliberately aiding a terrorist organization." </p> <p><img src="" width="500" height="267" /></p> <p>In fact, Erdogan personally sued Dundar <strong>and is requesting that he be given a life sentence, an aggravated life sentence and an additional 42-year term in prison on charges related to a variety of crimes, ranging from espionage to attempting to topple the government and exposing secret information</strong>.</p> <p>What the reporters were really doing is <em><strong>their job</strong></em>.</p> <p>As the <a href="">WSJ reports</a>, "Turkish authorities on Thursday imprisoned Can Dundar, editor in chief of Cumhuriyet, and Erdem Gul, the newspaper’s capital correspondent in Ankara, <strong>on charges of spying and aiding a terrorist organization, the newspaper’s attorney said. If convicted, the two men would face life in prison over the charges</strong>."</p> <p><img src="" width="503" height="282" /></p> <p>Their real offense: presenting the facts about the shady dealings and backroom politics of Erdogan's now fully-despotic regime. </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>The arrests are part of a renewed crackdown on Turkish media since the political party founded by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan regained one-party rule earlier this month. They come on the heels of a warning from the European Union that Turkey’s clampdown on free media is jeopardizing its hopes of joining the organization.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Freedom of the press has been steadily eroding in Turkey under Mr. Erdogan. Police have closed opposition television stations, prosecutors have accused top journalists of writing tweets or columns insulting the president, and reporters have been beaten by mobs.</strong> The government is one of the world’s leading censors of Twitter, which is used widely in Turkey to criticize the government.</p> </blockquote> <p>And this is the ideological banana republic ally of Barack Obama.</p> <p>In the original Cumhuriyet report from May, the authors wrote a story, with photos and video evidence, suggesting Turkish intelligence was secretly ferrying weapons to extremist Syrian rebels. "The article sparked a major furor in Turkey, which has long been accused by its critics of secretly aiding in the growth of Islamic State militants based in neighboring Syria."</p> <p>Mr. Erdogan personally sued Mr. Dundar, accused Cumhuriyet of&nbsp; spying and releasing false information, warning in a television interview that the journalist who wrote the piece would “pay a heavy price.”</p> <p>More on the arrests:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>The arrests came one week after the Turkish newspaper won this year’s Press Freedom Prize from Reporters Without Borders, the Paris-based press freedom group. On Thursday, Reporters Without Borders said the arrests sent “an extremely grave signal about media freedom in Turkey.” </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>“For the first time, we’ve reached the level (of pressure on media in Turkey) that such a prominent figure in Turkey’s mainstream media and television for over 30 years is targeted,” said Erol Önderoglu, the group’s Turkish representative.</p> </blockquote> <p>The propaganda from Turkey's quasi-dicator gets better: "Earlier this week, the Turkish president again lashed out at the newspaper and suggested that it had sabotaged the country’s support for moderate Turkmen rebels in Syria."</p> <p>It appears that if one exposes the truth in turkey on is a criminal spy and must be put away. </p> <p>Naturally, just before his arrest on Thursday, Mr. Dundar rejected the allegation that he was a spy. After three hours of testimony, Mr. Dundar said the prosecutors were focused on the wrong people. </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>“Who should be judged is who committed the crime, not who wrote about it,” he wrote on Twitter. Mr. Dundar said he and his paper were “defending press freedom” in the face of “lies” by the government. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Tora Pekin, one of the newspaper’s lawyers, said the government waited until after the recent parliamentary election to act against a prominent government critic. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>“After Erdogan’s comments, for six months we waited for the arrests,” he said. “We were 100% certain that Dundar and Gul would be arrested.”</p> </blockquote> <p>Here are more details on the real crime in question: Turkey's ongoing arms supply to Syrian rebels, among which very likely members of the Islamic State, courtesy of Turkey's <a href="">Today Szaman</a>:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Dundar and Gul arrived at ?stanbul Courthouse on Thursday morning to testify as part of a terrorism investigation. The investigation was launched after Cumhuriyet published photos in May of weapons <strong>which it said were transferred to Syria in trucks operated by the National Intelligence Organization (MIT)</strong>.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>“We came here to defend journalism. We came here to defend the right of the public to obtain the news and their right to know if their government is feeding them lies</strong>. We came here to show and to prove that governments cannot engage in illegal activity and defend this,” Dundar told the press outside the courthouse.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>The articles, published on the daily's front page, reported that the trucks in question were intercepted by gendarmes on two occasions in January 2014 after prosecutors received tip-offs that they were illegally carrying arms to Syria. </strong>There have been allegations that the arms were going to extremist groups fighting against the Syrian regime. Ankara, on the other hand, insisted that the trucks were carrying aid to Syrian Turkmens and branded their interception as an act of “treason” and “espionage.”</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Dundar continued, “First the government responded saying<strong>: ‘No there is nothing of the sort. This is aid. Then it was revealed that these were guns. Then they said that these were going to the Turkmens. Then the present deputy prime minister, Tugrul Turke? said, ‘I swear to God they [the trucks] were not going to the Turkmens.' </strong>… Then later the Turkmens said they did not receive any arms.”</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>“The president is acting as if this is a personal lawsuit, saying I will be following this, and I will not let it go. He, personally, is the complainant. I do not know why the president alone is the complainant. This secret is a secret that belongs to the state, it is not a secret that belongs to him personally.”</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>President Recep Tayyip Erdogan personally sued Dundar and <strong>is requesting that he be given a life sentence, an aggravated life sentence and an additional 42-year term in prison on charges related to a variety of crimes, ranging from espionage to attempting to topple the government and exposing secret information</strong>.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>For the coverage of the M?T trucks, President Erdogan has publicly targeted Dundar, saying: "The individual who has reported this as an exclusive story will pay a heavy price for this," in a television interview with state broadcaster TRT late in June.</p> <p>“We are being charged with being spies, the president is saying that we are traitors to the state. We are not spies, we are not traitors, we are not heroes; we are journalists,” Dundar added outside the courthouse.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>“There is a crime that has been committed by the state that they are trying to cover up,” he said, adding that the state is understandably in panic over the reporting done by the paper for it has the potential to reach an international audience and show the world the crimes committed by the Turkish state.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Following the Cumhuriyet report, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said it is “none of anybody's business” what the trucks contained. Speaking in a live broadcast on the Haberturk news station in May, Davutoglu said, “This is a blatant act of espionage.”</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>After the publication of video stills as well as video footage, <strong>Erdogan lashed out at Cumhuriyet and Dundar for publishing the evidence and publicly vowed that Dundar would “pay a heavy price” for his report.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>According to the report, <strong>the trucks were carrying six steel containers which contained a total of 1,000 artillery shells, 50,000 machine gun rounds, 30,000 heavy machine gun rounds and 1,000 mortar shells. All of this is registered in the prosecutor's file on the M?T truck case, the report said.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The photos, published on the daily's front page in late May, show steel containers filled with mortar shells and ammunition underneath boxes of medicine. The daily also published a video showing the containers on trucks being opened and searched by gendarmes.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Earlier this month, Cumhuriyet was awarded the prestigious Reporters Without Borders (RSF) Prize for its contribution to defending press freedom.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>There was an outpour of support for the veteran journalists from their colleagues and politicians. Republican People's Party (CHP) deputies Sezgin Tanr?kulu, Mahmut Tanal, Bar?? Yarkada?, Onursal Ad?guzel, Ali ?eker and Gursel Tekin were among the many CHP representatives that came to the courthouse to show their solidarity; People's Democratic Party (HDP) deputy Garo Paylan was also present. Journalist Hasan Cemal, writer Pelin Batu and Confederation of Revolutionary Workers' Unions (D?SK) Secretary-General Arzu Cerkezoglu also came to the courthouse to stand by Dundar and Erdem.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The Turkish Journalists' Association (TGC) and Journalists Union of Turkey (TGS) gave a written statement <strong>saying that the Cumhuriyet daily performed its duty of informing the public and that it is not the job of journalists to protect the government.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>And that's why Erdogan can claim there is no "proof" of his cabinet's illegal dealings with ISIS and extremist jihadists: when proof emerges, anyone who revealed it risks spending the rest of their life (and another 42 year on top) in prison.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="645" height="344" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Barack Obama European Union national intelligence Newspaper SPY Testimony Turkey Twitter Twitter Fri, 27 Nov 2015 14:57:22 +0000 Tyler Durden 517130 at Juncker Warns Euro Is Doomed, "Pointless" If Schengen Fails <p>As Europe's democratically elected leaders (and the people they represent) grow <em><strong>increasingly wary of the tsunami of refugees flooding their nations</strong></em>, prompting calls for restrictions on visa-free travel and an end to the so-called Schengen agreement, unelected EU leaders, clinging to their centralized power, are increasingly warning of the consequences of any restrictions. <a href="">As EUObserver reports, </a> EU Commission president <em><strong>Jean-Claude Juncker warned that the euro is pointless if people can't move around freely to use it</strong></em>.</p> <p><a href="">Having already called for a European standing army</a>, <strong> in order to show Russia "that [The EU is] serious about defending European values,"</strong> EU Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker said Wednesday, in his first<br /> speech to the European Parliament since the attacks in Paris that<br /> killed 130 people, that <strong><em>Europe's single currency would come under threat if the Schengen visa-free travel zone fails</em></strong>. <a href="">As EUObserver reports,</a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Juncker warned that the euro is pointless if people can't move around freely to use it</strong></span>.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>“If the spirit of Schengen leaves us ... we’ll lose more than the Schengen agreement. A <strong>single currency doesn’t make sense if Schengen fails</strong>,” Juncker told the parliamentarians.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>“Schengen is one of the main pillars of the construction of Europe,” he added.</p> </blockquote> <p>The Schengen system of open borders has come under pressure as EU member states struggle to stop the influx of refugees - a level of displaced not seen since the end of World War II. Schengen has 26 members, though a few are not EU states. It is one of the major achievements of the European Union, allowing for free flow of people and goods.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>“We have to safeguard the spirit behind the Schengen agreement,” Junkcer said, admitting: “The Schengen system is partly comatose.”</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>“Those who believe in Europe, those who believe in its values and principles, freedoms, <strong>must breathe new life into the spirit behind Schengen,”</strong> he noted.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>“A single currency doesn’t make sense if Schengen fails,”</strong></span> he repeated.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>He again warned against equating terrorists with refugees, saying politicians should not exploit the tragic Paris attacks.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><strong>“Those who carried out these attacks in Paris, those who incited these attacks, are the same people who are forcing the unlucky of this planet to flee, please don't get things mixed up,”</strong></em> Juncker said.</p> </blockquote> <p>The real driver of Juncker's push becomes clear when we see what plans he has...</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Speaking at the parliament, where <strong>legislation on sharing airline passengers’ data has stalled,</strong> Junkcer called on MEPs to cover people flying within the EU in the law.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>He also confirmed the EU commission willi come forward with proposals on an <strong>EU-wide border guard and coast guard system </strong>in December, and called for <strong>more effective cooperation between European intelligence services</strong>.</p> </blockquote> <p>More centralization, more surveillance, and less sovereignty.. all under the guise of protecting you the european people.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="211" height="164" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> European Union Fri, 27 Nov 2015 14:32:17 +0000 Tyler Durden 517129 at Will Low Oil Prices Increase Internal Instability In Conflict Countries? <p><a href=""><em>Submitted by Ryan Opsal via,</em></a></p> <p>With over 1.6 million <a href="">internally displaced</a> in South Sudan, and another 600,000 refugees in neighboring countries, <strong> are oil price declines exacerbating humanitarian crises in oil-producing African countries</strong>, and can we expect further deterioration as a result of the recent price depression?</p> <p>This is a worthwhile issue to explore given South Sudan&rsquo;s overwhelming reliance on oil revenues to fill government coffers; a similar situation that can be duplicated throughout Africa with not only oil, but other commodities exports as well.<strong> But, do price changes really exacerbate these conflicts? The answer is: it depends.</strong></p> <p>For starters, <strong>commodities predation makes sense in any number of interstate conflicts, but how about civil conflicts?</strong> Much of academic research viewed civil conflicts as tightly bound to various grievances by internal factions within the state. For example, divisions in various ethnic groups and historical conflicts between differing factions come to mind as reasons many may give for civil strife. However, there is a strong competing claim in the literature, popularized <a href="">by Paul Collier</a> and <a href="">Anke Hoeffler</a> in the mid-2000s. <strong>Their claim is that &ldquo;greed&rdquo; and not grievance is a significant factor in fueling these disputes. </strong>Greed in the sense of this research refers to economic and financial gains being furnished to competing factions in civil wars. This approach is highly significant in that commodities exporters have a much higher probability of encountering civil war as a result of these economic payoffs to internal actors and furthers the robustness of our understanding of civil war.</p> <p>One should not discount the myriad grievances present amongst the varying ethnic groups in South Sudan, but this research seems to be quite relevant given its oil exports and that <strong>much of the fighting and resulting population displacement have been localized in South Sudan&rsquo;s oil producing regions in Unity, Jonglei, and Upper Nile. </strong>The conflict has significantly disrupted operations centered in these oil producing regions imposing significant strain on government revenues through forgone income from Nilepet and increasing risk to other overseas players in the sector which is dominated by China (in particular CNPC (PTR) and Sinopec (SNP), India&rsquo;s ONGC (ONGC:IN), and Malaysia (Petronas), with marginal activity by France&rsquo;s Total (TOT), Kuwait&rsquo;s Kufpec, and Kuwaiti-Egyptian Tri-Ocean Energy.</p> <p><strong>So, how do commodities pricing impact these conflicts?</strong> Well, the same research provides an answer: not much. While commodities, such as oil, may act as a central component to contributing to conflict in the first place, shifts in the price of that commodity typically do not correlate with an increase or decrease in violence within the state. These resources remain a &ldquo;prize&rdquo; regardless of ongoing price fluctuations.</p> <p><em><strong>This means the recent depression in oil prices, even if it continues for some time, probably will not affect the level of internal conflict, and therefore should not induce further internal displacement. </strong></em>Importantly, if this does occur, it will be due to reasons other than the price of oil.</p> <p><strong>The timing is another important component. South Sudan&rsquo;s oil income was already drastically cut back before the price drop in late 2014, which means fiscal adjustments, as well as the issuance of new debt, has already occurred.</strong> So, there was little modification to be had as a result of the forgone income from oil price decreases. In the year of its independence, South Sudan was <a href="">producing</a> nearly 350,000 bbl/d, and due to transit issues with Sudan, dropped to a trickle for 2012, and then in 2013 and 2014 resumed only to approximately 120,000 to 150,000 bbl/d.</p> <p><strong>So, there wasn&rsquo;t really much oil income being transferred to the general population to begin with, so it&rsquo;s not as if the population is forgoing income that may force displacement.</strong> Much of the <a href="">oil income</a>, since the inception of the state, has gone towards the military and fighting internal conflicts. For this reason, and others, oil funds simply were not making their way to the domestic population even before the price declines, which means the internal displacement is not a result of reduced benefits from the state.</p> <p><strong>There are, of course, some caveats to consider.</strong> <strong><em>One issue is the price drop may affect third party aid donors, negatively impacting South Sudan. Norway and Canada, two large aid donors to South Sudan both have their own oil-based problems. </em></strong>While both diversified, advanced economies, Norway and Canada still derive significant portions of their respective budgets from oil revenues, which have of course decreased. Norway contributed $83 million, and Canada $66 million, each in 2013 alone, and both are in the <a href="">top 5 of South Sudan&rsquo;s donors</a>. And, although this hasn&rsquo;t affected their announced aid budgets for 2016, it might impose large enough constraints causing aid decreases starting in 2017, further reducing societal benefits from aid flows.</p> <p><u><strong>Despite the potential contribution of oil to civil wars, if this humanitarian crisis worsens or expands, it will not be due to oil price fluctuations, but due to other factors</strong></u>, requiring an adjustment in political analyses in this situation, and others like it. As we have seen in the past, the key to these types of development situations is determining ways to reduce incentives for commodities predation &ndash; not an easy task for nations with limited resources and negligible institutional capacity.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="218" height="158" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> China France India Kuwait Norway Fri, 27 Nov 2015 14:08:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 517127 at The FDIC Itereates and Corroborates My "F@ck the Fundamentals" Message fron the Fed <p style="margin: 0.5em 0px 1.5em; color: #666666; font-size: 17px; line-height: 27.2px;">Banks are headed towards rough waters and it's not just me who believes so. You may be getting the rose-colored glasses edition from the media and Wall Streeet (ahem, banks!) but all you have to do is read past the soundbyte laden 1st paragraph or so. Take this recent article from Bloomberg quoting the FDIC:&nbsp;<a href="" style="color: #363636; transition: color 0.2s linear;">FDIC Says Bank Profits Rose in Third Quarter, Warns of Credit Risk</a>. We're going to ignore the credit risks potion (which is an entire article on its own) and focus on a singe sentence where the FDIC agrees with Reggie in that the Fed's monetary policy is&nbsp;<a href="mailto:B@llsh1t!:" style="color: #363636; transition: color 0.2s linear;">B@llsh1t!:</a></p> <p style="margin: 0.5em 0px 1.5em 30px; color: #666666; font-size: 17px; line-height: 27.2px;"><em>"In the environment of low rates, interest-rate risk and credit risk have increased..."</em></p> <p style="margin: 0.5em 0px 1.5em; color: #666666; font-size: 17px; line-height: 27.2px;">Let's parse this statement. "<em>In the environment of low rates, intereste -rate risks and credit risks have increase...</em>" So, the premium on the interest that you are charged for being (or operating in a) high risk is not being charged, despite the fact said risks "have increased"?!?!?! Basically, teh safety cushion that modern markets price into higher risks has been removed and rates are low despite the fact that the risks about dicate rates should be high? Tell me, what's wrong with this picture?</p> <p style="margin: 0.5em 0px 1.5em; color: #666666; font-size: 17px; line-height: 27.2px;">Here's another snippet causing me to reminisce on a blast from the past:</p> <p style="margin: 0.5em 0px 1.5em 30px; color: #666666; font-size: 17px; line-height: 27.2px;">"<em>Revenue growth for the industry as a whole has been modest since 2009,” he said. “This is partly a reflection of the challenging interest-rate environment.”</em>&nbsp;</p> <p style="margin: 0.5em 0px 1.5em; color: #666666; font-size: 17px; line-height: 27.2px;">Uh huh! Listen these clips from 2011 below...</p> <p style="margin: 0.5em 0px 1.5em; color: #666666; font-size: 17px; line-height: 27.2px;"><img src="" width="425" height="350" style="cursor: default; border: 1px dotted #cc0000 !important; background-image: url(; background-color: #ffffcc; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat;" /></p> <p style="margin: 0.5em 0px 1.5em; color: #666666; font-size: 17px; line-height: 27.2px;">You've heard me pontificate on these topics before...</p> <dl style="color: #666666; font-size: 17px; line-height: 27.2px;"> <dt><a href="" style="color: #363636; transition: color 0.2s linear;">Mark-to-Fantasy Becomes an Ugly Reality with the Impact of (S&amp;P) 500 Enrons</a></dt> <dd>...&nbsp;le in most mark to model contraptions is the prevailing risk free&nbsp;interest&nbsp;rate - the same (not so) risk free rate that the world's central banks (including the Fed) are trying to so hard to synthetically su&nbsp;...</dd> <dd>Created on 01 November 2015</dd> </dl> <dl style="color: #666666; font-size: 17px; line-height: 27.2px;"> <dt><a href="" style="color: #363636; transition: color 0.2s linear;">The Global Currency War - USA Edition</a></dt> <dd>CNBC ran a very&nbsp;interesting article this morning, basically laying out the groundwork for the Fed to push interest&nbsp;rates&nbsp;lower - that's right, lower!&nbsp;This&nbsp;video puts it into perspective.&nbsp;Th&nbsp;...</dd> <dd>Created on 15 October 2015</dd> </dl> <dl style="color: #666666; font-size: 17px; line-height: 27.2px;"> <dt><a href="" style="color: #363636; transition: color 0.2s linear;">Reggie Middleton's Prognosticated Market Crash and False Positives in Interest Rate Raise Promises</a></dt> <dd>...&nbsp;forbid the Fed actually follows up on one of its many bluffs and does inch&nbsp;interest&nbsp;rates&nbsp;up. The real estate markets will collapse. Those who visit NYC and Miami know there's rampant construction ala 2007&nbsp;...</dd> <dd>Created on 24 August 2015</dd> </dl> <dl style="color: #666666; font-size: 17px; line-height: 27.2px;"> <dt><a href="" style="color: #363636; transition: color 0.2s linear;">As I Promised, the Nordic States' Central Bank QE Program Slides Backwards and Starts To Collapse</a></dt> <dd>...&nbsp;xed exchange rate Free&nbsp;capital&nbsp;movement (absence of&nbsp;capital controls) An independent&nbsp;monetary policy It is both a hypothesis based on the&nbsp;uncovered&nbsp;interest&nbsp;rate parity&nbsp;condit&nbsp;...</dd> <dd>Created on 26 June 2015</dd> </dl> <dl style="color: #666666; font-size: 17px; line-height: 27.2px;"> <dt><a href="" style="color: #363636; transition: color 0.2s linear;">How to Blow a Trillion Dollars and Look Like You (Don't) Know What You're Doing While Blowing It</a></dt> <dd>...&nbsp; Let's see how much tens of billions euros and a trillion dollar promise is worth in terms of buying time from an&nbsp;interest rate and currency storm... The Trillion Dollar Promise worked for 4 month&nbsp;...</dd> <dd>Created on 06 May 2015</dd> </dl> <dl style="color: #666666; font-size: 17px; line-height: 27.2px;"> <dt><a href="" style="color: #363636; transition: color 0.2s linear;">2010 Contrarian Prediction of the Disastrous Consequences of ZIRP &amp; Free Money Policy In the Banking System, Year 5</a></dt> <dd>...&nbsp;ing affected by low&nbsp;interest&nbsp;rates— they are killing its spread income. Now, go to the 0:55 marker in this video and listen for a minute or two, then continue reading. Chairman and Chief Executive &nbsp;...</dd> <dd>Created on 17 April 2015</dd> </dl> <dl style="color: #666666; font-size: 17px; line-height: 27.2px;"> <dt><a href="" style="color: #363636; transition: color 0.2s linear; line-height: 1.6;">"Fu$k the Fundamentals!": Negative Rates In EU Will Absolutely Wreck the Very System the ECB Sought to Save</a></dt> </dl> Central Banks Free Money Market Crash Monetary Policy Real estate Reality Fri, 27 Nov 2015 13:44:34 +0000 Reggie Middleton 517126 at The Videos Are In: US Shoppers Go Wild, Beat Each Other Up To Celebrate Black Friday Sales <p>It's Black Friday which means the US is flooded with videos of its favorite pastime: <em><strong>mauls in the malls, </strong></em>as vicious brawls and fights break out among total strangers across across America's countless retail outlets.</p> <p>The first videos trickle in:</p> <p> <iframe src="" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <p> <iframe src="" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>And yet, this year there may be a shift. </p> <p>Moments ago IBM Watson Trend released the latest Thanksgiving online sales which rose 26% from 2014, with mobile traffic reaching nearly 60% of all online traffic, an increase of 14.8% over 2014. According to IBM, consumers spent $123.45/order with 40% of all online sales came from mobile devices, an increase of 24% over Thanksgiving 2014.</p> <p>Some other notable findings:</p> <ul> <li>Smartphones accounted for 47% of all Thanksgiving online traffic vs tablets at 13.7%; smartphones also surpassed tablets in sales, driving 24% of online sales vs tablets at 16%</li> <li>IBM Watson predicts Black Friday online sales up more than 14.5% y/y</li> <li>Consumers indicate top products incl. Apple Watch, Samsung, Sony, LG TVs, Microsoft Surface Pro 4</li> </ul> <p>And while this is good news for the Amazons of the world as consumers continue to migrate to online shopping platforms, this is bad news for traditional brick-and-mortar retailers for whom today was supposed to be the one day when sales are solidly in the "black." </p> <p>As <a href="">Bloomberg summarizes</a>, the online rush comes as Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Macy’s Inc. and other chains roll out their Black Friday specials, aiming to get more shoppers into stores. About 135.8 million Americans are expected to shop in stores or online over the four-day weekend, according to the National Retail Federation, the largest U.S. retail trade organization. The amount they’ve spent has declined over the past two years, dropping 11 percent to $50.9 billion in 2014.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Though consumers are benefiting from lower fuel prices and unemployment rates, retailers have their challenges. Mall traffic is in the midst of a long-term slowdown, and shoppers are spending more on experiences and less on stuff. More recently, a warm autumn has curtailed sales of seasonal merchandise, leaving stores with excess inventory. All those factors point to a need for heavy discounting -- good for consumers, but not so great for retailers’ profits.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>“<strong>From the perspective of the amount of discounting that’s going on, the over-inventory situation, it seems like there are going to be a lot of great deals in the next 45 days,” </strong>said Bob Drbul, a retail analyst at Nomura Securities International.</p> </blockquote> <p>The NRF’s traffic forecast represents a 1.6 percent increase from last year although in a zero-sum market, "there’s a risk that fewer shoppers than expected may show up." Last year, the NRF had forecast 140.1 million consumers would hit stores and e-commerce sites, <strong>4.8 percent more than actually turned out, </strong>according to its post-weekend shopping survey. Expect more of the same as the transition to online shopping accelerates. </p> <p>Furthermore increasingly more stores are pulling back on their Thanksgiving weekend hours this year and electing to spread more of their specials throughout the month. Wal-Mart said it expects record crowds on Friday, even though it’s putting most of its discounts online first. </p> <p>So videos of the occasional brawl the best evidence of the demise of traditional retailer comes from in person "channel checks" such as what&nbsp; TheStreet's correspondent Brian Sozzi has been doing all night. Here are some of his "ghost town" findings.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Even the <a href="">#StarWars</a> plush dolls and bedding not selling <a href="">@JeffMacke</a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Brian Sozzi (@BrianSozzi) <a href="">November 27, 2015</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">Star Wars toys not flying off shelves today, lots of stuff bought on "Force Friday" in September <a href="">#BlackFriday</a> <a href=";src=ctag">$HAS</a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Brian Sozzi (@BrianSozzi) <a href="">November 27, 2015</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">1 thing very clear being up over 24 hours in stores:</p> <p>Star Wars fatigue has set in. Stuff not selling <a href="">#BlackFriday</a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Brian Sozzi (@BrianSozzi) <a href="">November 27, 2015</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">It's a quiet morning so far here at Target in jersey city! <a href="">@MorganLBrennan</a> has more 6am <a href="">@SquawkCNBC</a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Amanda Weindel (@AmandaWeindel) <a href="">November 27, 2015</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">To unload its weak fall styles, Gap offers people free totes with a purchase on <a href="">#BlackFriday</a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Brian Sozzi (@BrianSozzi) <a href="">November 27, 2015</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">Good job on <a href="">#BlackFriday</a> Sears friends... <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Brian Sozzi (@BrianSozzi) <a href="">November 27, 2015</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">Kohl's lines looking weak, unsurprising given how strong JC Penney has started <a href="">#BlackFriday</a> <a href=";src=ctag">$JCP</a> <a href=";src=ctag">$KSS</a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Brian Sozzi (@BrianSozzi) <a href="">November 27, 2015</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">I did not do this JC Penney <a href="">#BlackFriday</a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Brian Sozzi (@BrianSozzi) <a href="">November 27, 2015</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">Best Buy store manager: "We still have both sizes of the Apple Watch in stock."</p> <p>Store opened 6 hours ago...</p> <p><a href=";src=ctag">$AAPL</a> <a href="">#BlackFriday</a></p> <p>— Brian Sozzi (@BrianSozzi) <a href="">November 27, 2015</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">New store, more GoPro stuff collecting dust <a href=";src=ctag">$GPRO</a> <a href="">#BlackFriday</a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Brian Sozzi (@BrianSozzi) <a href="">November 27, 2015</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">JC Penney women's shoe department </p> <p><a href="">#Thanksgiving</a> vs. <a href="">#BlackFriday</a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Brian Sozzi (@BrianSozzi) <a href="">November 27, 2015</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script> Apple Best Buy Black Friday JC Penney Nomura NRF Sears Twitter Twitter Unemployment Fri, 27 Nov 2015 13:43:29 +0000 Tyler Durden 517125 at Gold Plunges Below "Crucial Level", Lowest Since Oct 2009 On $2 Billion Notional Flush <p>With the world closest to World War 3 since the cold war era and Russia about to unleash escalating sanctions of Turkey, it makes perfect sense that &#39;investors&#39; would want to purge themselves of precious metals. Someone decided that <em><strong>Friday after Thanksgiving would be the perfect time to dump over 18,000 contracts (around $1.9 billion notional) sending the price of gold futures to their lowest since Oct 2009</strong></em>, below what Goldman called a &quot;crucial level.&quot;</p> <p>Over 18000 contracts dumped...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 454px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Sending gold futures prices to Oct 2009 lows...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 347px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>As Goldman notes,<strong> in Gold, the critical level is 1,068-1,066. In Silver, support spans 13.98-13.83.</strong><br />&nbsp;<br /><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Gold Daily/Weekly</strong></span> &ndash; The level to watch in Gold is 1,068-1,066. This includes an ABC equality target off the January high and the trend across the lows since Dec. &rsquo;13.</p> <p><img height="439" src="" width="600" /></p> <p>The fact that oscillators are diverging positively suggests that price may be attempting to stabilize. Failure to break this support area confirms that the setup is still corrective; that a 5-wave sequence from &rsquo;11 highs ended in July. Alternatively, a break lower would warn that the market hasn&rsquo;t yet completed its impulsive decline.</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" style="width: 600px; height: 441px;" /></a></p> <p>This would open potential to extend towards 966 (a 1.618 extension target from the January high).</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Silver Daily/Monthly </strong></span>&ndash; The level to watch here is 13.98-13.83. This includes the previous low from Aug. 26th and the trend across the lows since Jun. &rsquo;03.</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" style="width: 600px; height: 439px;" /></a></p> <p>Although the wave count on Silver is a lot less evident than the one for Gold, it is apparent that rallies have all met ABC targets insinuating that rallies lack impulse. On a more positive note, daily oscillators are crossing higher from the bottom of its range.</p> <p><img height="440" src="" width="600" /></p> <p>Put another way, the balance of signals seems mixed; 13.98-13.83 does however look significant.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1372" height="1039" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Precious Metals Turkey Fri, 27 Nov 2015 13:28:16 +0000 Tyler Durden 517124 at KaleBios 'Black Friday' Begins As Shrekli Forces 65% Short-Squeeze Surge In Pre-Market <p><a href="">Having announced in two brief tweets on Thanksgiving</a> - just as we warned was very possible - that he would pull his shares from being available-to-lend, Martin Shrekli has sent the meteoric Volkswagen-like trajectory of KaleBios vertical once again. With short-interest having surged to 49% (from 5.6%), the yanking of his loanable shares has sent <strong>KBIO up 65% in the pre-market, back above $45 (from just 45c 10 days ago)</strong>.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href=""><img height="454" src="" width="600" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>As we noted previously, and now the squeeze <em>really</em> begins, as all those 49% who are short KBIO, according to Markit, rush for the nearest exit, while those who are currently long the stock refuse to sell at any price knowing they have all the leverage.</p> <p>Whether this will translate into a Volkswagen circa 2008-type scenario, which incidentally looked as follows...</p> <p><a href=""><img height="322" src="" width="600" /></a></p> <p>... and where a company which is for all intents and purposes bankrupt suddenly trades with a market cap in the hundreds of millions or even billions as desperate shorts pay any price just to get out.... tune in tomorrow to find out during tomorrow&#39;s abbreviated session, because the KaloBios comedy is nowhere near concluded.</p> <p><em><strong>As for Shkreli... well he is already the &quot;most hated man in America&quot; - might as well double down.</strong></em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1372" height="1039" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Black Friday Markit Volkswagen Fri, 27 Nov 2015 13:16:56 +0000 Tyler Durden 517123 at China Unleashes Perfect Storm Of Bad News Prompting Stock Market Plunge <p>Earlier this week, we <a href="">documented</a> the curious case of Guotai Junan International Holdings’ CEO Yim Fung who went “missing” on November 18. </p> <p>After five days of trying to reach Yim via his cell phone, the brokerage issued a statement saying they simply could not find him. Guotai's shares took a nosedive, falling 12%, the steepest decline in three months.&nbsp;</p> <p><strong style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 17.3333px;"><img src="" width="277" height="386" style="max-width: 100%; height: auto;" /></strong></p> <p>You needn't have been a sleuth to make an educated guess as to what might have happened. Beginning in July, China embarked on a comically absurd witch hunt to identify and punish those "responsible" for the dramatic bursting of the country's leverage-fueled equity bubble. The crackdown (known as "kill the chicken to scare the monkey") ensnared everyone from brokers to journalists. By September, Beijing had even begun arresting employees of the regulatory body tasked with overseeing the plunge protection "national team." In effect, the CSRC was investigating itself.&nbsp;</p> <p>Sure enough, it turned out that Yim Fung was "taken away" in connection with a new graft probe into CSRC vice chairman&nbsp;Yao Gang, who earlier this month became at least the second official from the capital markets regulator to come under scrutiny since September.&nbsp;</p> <p>Now, it appears that after a period of relative calm, the Politburo is set to once again crackdown on any type of "malicious" behavior that Beijing thinks contributed to declining stock prices (remember, China isn't a big fan of the whole "stocks can go down as well as up" thing, which means arresting anyone suspected of selling or, in extreme cases, halting the entire market). On Friday, the SHCOMP plunged nearly 6% after&nbsp;Citic Securities and Guosen Securities disclosed regulatory probes. Shares in both brokerages traded limit down on the news.&nbsp;Haitong Securities', which is also facing an investigation, had its shares suspended.&nbsp;</p> <p>Both Citic and Guosen said the new probes centered on alleged "rule violations." "The finance crackdown has intensified in recent weeks and ensnared a prominent hedge-fund manager and a CSRC vice chairman," <a href="">Bloomberg notes</a>, adding that <strong>"Citic Securities President Cheng Boming is among seven of the company’s executives named by Xinhua News Agency as being under investigation."</strong></p> <p>The hedge fund manager Bloomberg references is&nbsp;&nbsp;Xu Xiang, who runs Shanghai-based Zexi Investment (profiled <a href="">here</a>). After his arrest for insider trading and "stock price manipulation," Beijing froze some $1 billion in accounts belonging to his parents. Xu's predicament sent shockwaves through an industry already on edge after the crackdown in August. "I don't want to get arrested," one Shanghai-based money manager told WSJ.&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>This isn't the first time Citic executives have come under scrutiny. </strong>The brokerage - which one journalist described over the summer as "like Goldman in China" - <a href="">said in August</a> that&nbsp;Managing Director Xu Gang had been detained for alleged "illegal trading." </p> <p><em style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 17.3333px;"><img src="" width="546" height="402" style="max-width: 100%; height: auto;" /></em></p> <p>As we put it at the time, "it's certainly possible that Beijing is simply out to send a message by arresting a high profile investment banker for no reason at all." In short:&nbsp;</p> <p><iframe src="" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <p>Amusingly, this comes just days after Beijing removed prop trading restrictions that required brokers to buy more shares than they sell in a given day. So now, you can technically be a net seller, it's just that you might end up being arrested for it if the Party thinks your selling was particularly malicious or otherwise ill-timed.&nbsp;</p> <p>But the renewal of the greatest witch hunt in the history of modern capital markets wasn't the only thing weighing on Chinese shares Friday. We also got the latest indication that the country's highly leveraged corporate sector has reached its dreaded Minsky Moment. As <a href="">we detailed a week ago</a>, Chinese borrowers are set to take out some CNY7.6 trillion in new loans this year just to pay interest on their existing borrowings. <strong>This comes as over half of commodities companies can't service their debt with existing cash flow.&nbsp;</strong></p> <p><a href="" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.3333px; line-height: 17.3333px;"><img src="" width="600" height="391" style="max-width: 100%; height: auto;" /></a></p> <p>What that means is that the defaults are coming and indeed, 2015 has seen at least a half dozen onshore implosions including, most recently,&nbsp;<a href="">Shanshui Cement Group</a>. On Friday,&nbsp;Jiangsu Lvling Runfa Chemical (a fertilizer company) and Sichuan Shengda Group (a pig iron producer) both indicated that they would be unable to repay debt coming due next week. As <a href="">Bloomberg reports</a>, "<strong>Sichuan Shengda’s subsidiary’s pig iron production is in halt because of falling prices and the cash shortage</strong>, the lender said in a separate statement."&nbsp;</p> <p>And of course no story about China's increasingly hard landing would be complete without a bit of disheartening economic data. <strong>In a further testament to how difficult it is to transition from smokestack economy to a consumption and services-led growth model in the midst of a global commodities downturn, industrial profits sank 4.6% Y/Y in October. </strong>As Goldman notes, "the deterioration in industrial profits is directionally consistent with the slowdown of month-on-month sequential industrial production growth reported for October (October industrial production growth: +2.9% mom ann sa, vs +8.0% mom ann. s.a. in September." Bear in mind that this is data from the NBS so it's exceedingly possible that the situation is actually far worse.&nbsp;</p> <p>Finally, it appears that the plunge protection team may finally be out of dry powder (as <a href="">we suggested</a> weeks ago). "On Friday, there was little sign that government-run funds had stepped in to ease the selloff," <a href="">Bloomberg said</a>, in the wake of the selloff. <strong>"While government intervention has typically showed up in the last hour of trading, the Shanghai Composite extended losses in the final 60 minutes to close near its lows of the day."</strong></p> <p><strong>“I don’t think any government can support the stock market forever," </strong>said Paul Chan, the Hong Kong-based chief investment officer for Asia excluding Japan at Invesco.&nbsp;</p> <p>Indeed, and the same goes for the bond market.&nbsp;</p> <p>Then again, there may be another explanation for the lack of CSRC plunge protection: it's possible everyone on the regulator's "national team" has been thrown in jail.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">"I shorted" <a href=""></a></p> <p>— zerohedge (@zerohedge) <a href="">July 9, 2015</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="597" height="393" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Bond Capital Markets China Insider Trading Japan Prop Trading Twitter Twitter Fri, 27 Nov 2015 12:49:37 +0000 Tyler Durden 517122 at Frontrunning: November 27 <ul> <li>Russia Takes Aim at Turkish Economy Amid Fighter-Jet Spat (<a href="">WSJ</a>)</li> <li>‘Commercial scale’ oil smuggling into Turkey becomes priority target of anti-ISIS strikes (<a href="">RT</a>)</li> <li>Russia-Turkey Ties Are Headed Into a Deep Freeze (<a href="">WSJ</a>)</li> <li>France signals softer stance on Assad after Russia talks (<a href="">FT</a>)</li> <li>China Calm Shattered as Brokerage Probe Sparks Selloff in Stocks (<a href="">BBG</a>)</li> <li>China Stock Bulls Hit Breaking Point as State Dials Back Support (<a href="">BBG</a>)</li> <li>China's Bond Stresses Mount as Two More Companies Flag Concerns (<a href="">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Paris Attacks Plot Was Hatched in Plain Sight (<a href="">WSJ</a>)</li> <li>German Police Arrest Suspected Arms Dealer as Paris Link Probed (<a href="">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Online Sales Surge Ahead of Brick-and-Mortar Retailers' Big Day (<a href="">BBG</a>)</li> <li>How Google Inspired Raspberry Pi’s $5 Computer (<a href="">WSJ</a>)</li> <li>China’s ‘national team’ owns 6% of stock market (<a href="">FT</a>)</li> <li>Euro-Area Confidence at Four-Year High as ECB Mulls Stimulus (<a href="">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Paris attacks: Sarkozy shifts right with swipe at multiculturalism (<a href="">FT</a>)</li> <li>HSBC Said to Close Down Private Banking Operations in India (<a href="">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Fattest-Ever U.S. Cattle Herd Signals End to Record Beef Prices (<a href="">BBG</a>)</li> </ul> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Overnight Media Digest</strong></p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">WSJ</span></em></p> <p>- China plans to build its first overseas naval installation in the East African nation of Djibouti, expanding the geographical reach of its armed forces as Beijing seeks to protect its growing economic and security interests around the globe. (<a href="" title=""></a>)</p> <p>- Russia announced plans to impose sanctions on an array of Turkish economic interests in response to Turkey's shoot down of a Russian warplane, as Ankara called for calm. (<a href="" title=""></a>)</p> <p>- The biggest banks in the United States are making far fewer loans to small businesses than they did a decade ago, ceding market share to alternative lenders that charge significantly higher rates, according to an analysis of the banks' federal regulatory filings. (<a href="" title=""></a>)</p> <p>- China's SZ DJI Technology Co, the world's top consumer-drone maker, is setting its sights on the agriculture industry with the launch of a crop sprayer that will test whether farming is fertile ground for drone technology. (<a href="" title=""></a>)</p> <p>- The Raspberry Pi Foundation, a U.K.-based nonprofit that makes cheap, bare-necessities computer processors, on Thursday released its cheapest product yet - a $5 computer called Pi Zero. (<a href="" title=""></a>) </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">FT</span></em></p> <p>According to figures from the labour ministry, the number of jobless in France rose to a new record of 3.59 million in October, with 42,000 more people out of work last month.</p> <p>South Korea on Thursday became the first country outside the United States to punish Volkswagen AG on the basis of its own emissions tests, slapping the German automaker with a record fine and ordering a recall of 125,000 vehicles.</p> <p>Barclays Plc on Thursday was fined about 72 million stg by the Financial Conduct Authority for an attempt to bag an "elephant-deal". The regulator put out details of the bank's careless financial-crime controls and willingness to ignore its own procedures. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">NYT</span></em></p> <p>- The once-booming gambling industry in Macau now confronts an array of obstacles, ranging from restrictive local policies to China's economic slowdown and crackdown on corruption. (<a href="" title=""></a>)</p> <p>- Luis Stuhlberger, whose fund has had a remarkable run in Brazil, has grown increasingly bearish about his country's economic outlook. (<a href="" title=""></a>)</p> <p>- Canada's new Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, has moved climate change policy to the top of the country's political agenda after it spent nearly a decade as an afterthought. (<a href="" title=""></a>)</p> <p>- In April, Republicans newly in control of Congress celebrated their agreement on a plan to save $5 trillion. Yet as the year closes, Congress instead is planning to repeal one of the few spending cuts it has passed into law since approving that budget resolution - $3 billion over a decade from subsidies for crop insurers. (<a href="" title=""></a>)</p> <p>- Amid a building boom, New York has seen an increase in fatalities and injuries which have mostly affected undocumented immigrant laborers and far exceeded the rate of new construction. (<a href="" title=""></a>)</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Hong Kong<br /></span></em></p> <p>SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST</p> <p>- One of the strongest El Ninos and the onslaught of global warming have put Hong Kong on course for its hottest year on record. The summer has already been the hottest since the Observatory began records in 1884 with mean temperatures for January-October at 24.7 Celsius degrees. Observatory director Shun Chi-ming said this year may very likely be the warmest since historical records began. (<a href="" title=""></a>)</p> <p>- The arms race between China's big three Internet companies is heating up in financial services as online search giant Baidu , global insurer Allianz and Asian investor Hillhouse Capital Group form a digital insurance company on the mainland. This new venture, called Bai An, hopes to expand the domestic market for digital insurance products. (<a href="" title=""></a>)</p> <p>- Dollar strength and high rents are killing the retail business in Hong Kong, the latest half-year result reports of two pillar businesses of the Hong Kong retail sector showed. Sincere Co Ltd, the operator of Hong Kong's oldest department store Sincere, posted a biggest first-half loss of HK$93 million ($12 million), while jeweller Luk Fook's profit dived 42.6 percent year on year. (<a href="" title=""></a>)</p> <p>THE STANDARD</p> <p>- Hong Kong Monetary Authority chief Norman Chan Tak-lam said the shrinking rate of the yuan capital pool in Hong Kong has slowed. He said recently there has been a decline in liquidity of offshore yuan, mainly due to the supply and demand imbalance, but the interbank interest rate remained largely stable. (<a href="" title=""></a>)</p> <p>- Two residential buildings in North Point in Hong Kong were withdrawn from an auction for redevelopment on Thursday, as no developers have offered bids amid lacklustre sentiment in the local property market. The Urban Renewal Authority has assisted owners of the two 50-year-old buildings to launch a joint sale. (<a href="" title=""></a>)</p> <p>- Lawmakers are demanding the government explain whether a shock one-year delay in the construction of the local portion of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge will further bloat the costs of the mega project. The Highways Department said the delay was due to unstable supply of materials, restrictions in airport height, shortage of labour, and constraints in environmental protection requirements. (<a href="" title=""></a>)</p> <p>HONG KONG ECONOMIC JOURNAL</p> <p>- Watch retailer Stelux Holdings International Ltd posted a loss of HK$33.08 million in the first half, compared with a profit a year earlier, on fewer shop visitors in Hong Kong and Macau in weak consumer sentiment. Chief executive Joseph Wong said he was not optimistic on the performance in Christmas while the company will focus on developing China market next year.</p> <p>HONG KONG ECONOMIC TIMES</p> <p>- Hong Kong Trade Development Council has revised down forecast for the city's exports to "negative growth" from "zero growth" as November and December exports may continue to decline amid the shaking consumer confidence in the United States and Europe, according to the Council's principal economist Daniel Poon Wing-choi.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Britain</span></em></p> <p>The Times</p> <p>Net migration has reached a record 336,000 as figures published yesterday showed that Romanians are now the third biggest group coming to the UK. (<a href="" title=""></a>)</p> <p>George Osborne's decision to spend the bulk of the 27 billion stg windfall from changes to the borrowing forecast in the autumn statement may prove a reckless gamble, the Institute for Fiscal Studies has warned. (<a href="" title=""></a>)</p> <p>The Guardian</p> <p>An "elephant deal' executed three years ago has cost Barclays Plc 72 million stg in penalties after the FCA concluded that the bank ran the risk of being used to launder money or finance terrorism. (<a href="" title=""></a>)</p> <p>Volkswagen AG's luxury flagship Audi has suspended two engineers after its larger diesel engines were found evading emissions limits in the U.S. (<a href="" title=""></a>)</p> <p>The Telegraph</p> <p>A wave of company failures is "inevitable" in Britain's oil and gas industry, with businesses supporting the wider energy sector the first to fail, according to advisory firm FRP. (<a href="" title=""></a>)</p> <p>Tesco Plc has agreed to pay $12 million to settle a U.S. lawsuit over the accounting scandal last year which saw its shares crumble. (<a href="" title=""></a>)</p> <p>Sky News</p> <p>An early investor in Facebook Inc is poised to invest millions of pounds in CarWow, a UK-based online dealer which has been described as the Expedia for new vehicles. (<a href="" title=""></a>)</p> <p>The rate of car tax avoidance has more than doubled, partly because some buyers of used cars do not realise new rules mean they have to pay tax on the vehicle immediately. Figures from the Department for Transport show that the rate of unlicensed vehicles in traffic increased to 1.4 percent in 2015 from 0.6 percent in 2013, the last time it carried out a survey. (<a href="" title=""></a>)</p> <p>The Independent</p> <p>The Chancellor's U-turn on tax credit cuts has only delayed, rather than avoided, a severe squeeze on the incomes of poor working families, according to two of the country's most respected think tanks, Resolution Foundation and the Institute for Fiscal Studies. (<a href="" title=""></a>)</p> Baidu Barclays Bond Brazil China Consumer Confidence Consumer Sentiment Corruption Fail France Gambling Global Warming Google Hong Kong India Market Share Turkey Volkswagen Yuan Fri, 27 Nov 2015 12:33:52 +0000 Tyler Durden 517121 at China Plunges Most In Three Months, Pushing "Black Friday" Into The Red For Global Stocks <p>After several months of artificial, centrally-planned calm in Chinese markets, where "malicious sellers" found out the hard way the Politburo means business, overnight the relative quiet in Chinese stocks since August broke with a bang when the Shanghai Composite tumbled as much 6.1% before closing down 5.5%, the biggest drop in three months and the largest weekly loss since the depth of the Chinese rout in mid-August while a gauge of Chinese volatility surged from the lowest level since March.&nbsp;</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="281" /></a></p> <p>China's market weakness pushed markets around the globe lower, and as a result all the levitation gains in yesterday's holiday market have been wiped out:</p> <ul> <li>S&amp;P 500 futures down up 0.1% to 2089</li> <li>Stoxx 600 down 0.2% to 384</li> <li>FTSE 100 down 0.3% to 6375</li> <li>DAX down less than 0.1% to 11320</li> <li>German 10Yr yield down less than 1bp to 0.46%</li> <li>Italian 10Yr yield down 3bps to 1.4%</li> <li>MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.9% to 133</li> <li>US 10-yr yield down 2bps to 2.21%</li> <li>Dollar Index up 0.11% to 99.91</li> <li>WTI Crude futures down 2% to $42.20</li> <li>Brent Futures down 1.1% to $44.98</li> <li>Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,068</li> <li>Silver spot down 1.1% to $14.12</li> </ul> <p>The Chinese selloff was driven by a trifecta of catalysts: some of China's largest brokerages (Citic, Guosen) disclosed regulatory probes and quickly plunged limit down while Guotai Junan and Haitong said they are facing anti-graft checks; additionally two companies announced bond payment difficulties and finally, <strong>overnight China reported that industrial profits fell 4.6% y/y in October, far worse than the -0.1% decline the month before. </strong></p> <p>Citic Securities said it received a notice from the China Securities Regulatory Commission on Thursday saying it will be investigated because it allegedly violated regulations on the supervision and administration of securities firms. The brokerage said it will cooperate with the probe and its operations are normal. Guosen Securities also said it was being investigated by the CSRC for similar alleged rule violations. Haitong Securities said after the market close it was being probed without providing details.</p> <p>And so "<strong>China is back again on the table with a huge loss this morning as lots of investors were trying to use the recent lows to invest and the latest data and talk of how difficult it is for brokers to work there scared them off</strong>,” said John Plassard, a senior equity-sales trader at Mirabaud Securities LLP in Geneva, cited by Bloomberg.</p> <p>AS <a href="">Bloomberg reports</a>, the probe into the finance industry comes as the government widens an anti-corruption campaign and seeks to assign blame for the selloff earlier this year. In doing so, ironically it is setting the stage for the next big selloff.</p> <p> Authorities are testing the strength of a nascent bull market by lifting a freeze on initial public offerings and scrapping a rule requiring brokerages to hold net-long positions, just as the earliest indicators for November signal a deterioration in economic growth. A Chinese fertilizer maker and a pig iron producer became the latest companies to flag debt troubles after at least six defaults this year.</p> <p>“The sharp decline will raise questions whether the authorities’ confidence that we are seeing stability in the Chinese markets may be a tad premature,” said Bernard Aw, a strategist at IG Asia Pte. in Singapore. “The rally since the August collapse was not fundamentally supported. The removal of restrictions for large brokers to sell and the IPO resumptions may not have been announced at an opportune time.”</p> <p>As a result of the broker-led swoon the Shanghai Composite’s pared gains since its Aug. 26 low to 17 percent, while commodities were also impacted which had benefited in the previous session from a report China's metals association had requested a government bailout as well as a crackdown on "malicious sellers" of metals. </p> <p><strong>The other top Asian news:</strong></p> <ul> <li>China to Ban Derivatives Funding for Stock Trading, CSRC Says: Securities Association of China will ban brokerages from offering financing for stock market trading using derivatives</li> <li>China Calm Shattered as Brokerage Probe Sparks Selloff in Stocks: CSI 300 index closes down 5.4%, most in 3 mos.</li> <li>China’s Bond Stresses Mount as Two More Companies Flag Concerns: Jiangsu Lvling Runfa says it’s unable to repay bonds Dec.</li> <li>Rich Asians Mostly Stick With Dollar Rally UBS Says Near End: Bank starts trade of selling euro against Norway’s krone</li> <li>Aussie’s Slide Spurs Weakest Inflation Response Since Float: Australia importing low inflation keeps RBA easing talk alive</li> <li>Japan’s Government Gets Paid to Borrow at Two-Year Note Auction: Sale of 2.5t yen of the debt had record-low yield of minus 0.004%</li> <li>China Unveils Biggest Army Overhaul in Decades to Project Power: President seeks to tighten political control over military</li> <li>Japan Oct. Core Consumer Prices Fall 0.1% Y/y; Est. -0.1%</li> <li>Japan Oct. Unemployment Rate at 3.1%; Est. 3.4%</li> </ul> <p>In European markets equities kicked off the final session of the week in negative territory before paring losses throughout the European morning to head into the North American crossover in modest positive territory (Euro Stoxx: +0.2%). The most notable underperformers in Europe were material and energy names amid softness in the commodity complex following the aforementioned downbeat sentiment in Asia and USD strength.</p> <p>Despite the losses seen in Chinese equities, news flow in European hours has been fairly light and as such, Bunds trade modestly higher in tandem with the weakness seen in equities.</p> <p><strong>European top news:</strong></p> <ul> <li>Infineon Soars to 13-Year High After Earnings Beat Estimates: Post growing sales from power management and security products</li> <li>Abengoa’s Bondholders Jumping Ship as Insolvency Concerns Mount: Creditors faced with choice of dumping holdings or taking their chances on eventual settlement</li> <li>Novartis Said to Consider Selling Contact Lens Care Division: Seeks to improve growth at its eye-care unit, Alcon</li> <li>Merck KGaA Said to Weigh Allergy Therapy Unit Sale to Trim Debt: Seeks to cut debt after $17b takeover of Sigma- Aldrich</li> <li>Standard Chartered Facing Highest Hurdles in BOE Stress Tests: Investors to find out Dec. 1 if lender has done enough to weather latest round of stress tests</li> <li>Glencore Says Disputed Libyan Oil Deal Has Global Support: Oil chief Beard defended co.’s crude-export contract with Libya’s National Oil Corp. in west of divided country after competing administration in east threatened to block its tankers</li> <li>U.K. Home-Price Growth Slows to Five-Month Low, Nationwide Says: Notes a shortage of properties for sale</li> <li>Euro-Area Confidence at Highest in 4 Years as ECB Mulls Stimulus: Figures are the strongest since May 2011</li> </ul> <p>In FX, amid the light news flow the most significant FX move came in the form of broad based CHF weakness , with USD/CHF reaching its highest level since 2010 and EUR/CHF breaking above the 1.0900 handle and November highs. Given the expected upcoming ECB stimulus, this could potentially spur suggestions of pre¬emptive SNB intervention at some stage, ahead of the ECB rate decision and press conference next Thursday. The European morning saw a bout of strength in the USD index (+0.2%), to move back above the 100.00 level, with Wednesday's 100.17 the next level of resistance.<br />&nbsp;<br />In Commodities, oil continues its decline after yesterday's announcement by the Libyan NOC that it has seen good progress in restarting production from its largest oil field. Furthermore, WITI and Brent have been weighed upon by a firmer USD. In the metals complex, gold has seen downward pressure since European participants came to their desks, in tandem with underperformance in silver, with prices of the yellow metal on course for its 6th consecutive weekly decline, now trading at the lowest levels since February 2010.</p> <p><strong>Top Global News:</strong></p> <ul> <li>Black Friday Retailers Pile on Discounts to Lure Frugal Shoppers: The shaky condition of U.S. retail will be put to the test this weekend, when Wal-Mart Stores, Macy’s and other chains roll out their Black Friday specials <ul> <li>EBay Early Thanksgiving Comps Up 11.1% Y/y: ChannelAdvisor</li> <li>Online Sales Surge Ahead of Brick-and-Mortar Retailers’ Big Day</li> </ul> </li> <li>Naspers Said to Plan Showmax Expansion to Take on Netflix: Plans to expand video-streaming competitor to Netflix into 3 new continents next year, Samsung to include service on TVs</li> <li>U.S. FDA Warning Poses Threat to Dr. Reddy’s Revenue Outlook: India’s 2nd-largest drugmaker could see sales come under pressure as it faces scrutiny from FDA over manufacturing practices at its factories</li> <li>Oil Pares Weekly Advance as Libya Seeks to Boost Crude Supply: Oil pared first weekly gain in a month</li> <li>Brazil Surprises Analysts With Worst Primary Budget Gap of Year: Underscores administration’s challenges in shoring up fiscal accounts</li> <li>U.K. Domestic Demand Lifts Economy as Net Trade Has Record Drag: Consumer spending up for 17th straight quarter</li> </ul> <p><strong>Bulletin Headline Summary From Bloomberg and RanSquawk</strong></p> <ul> <li>Amid the light news flow, the most significant FX move came in the form of broad based CHF weakness, with USD/CHF reaching its highest level since 2010</li> <li>European equities kicked off the final session of the week in negative territory before paring losses throughout the European morning to head into the North American crossover in modest positive territory (Euro Stoxx: +0.20%)</li> <li>Looking ahead, highlights include ECB's Linde and Knot, although yesterday's Thanksgiving holiday could lead to another quiet session</li> <li>Treasuries gain amid rout in China shares as some of the nation’s largest brokerages disclosed regulatory probes; volumes light as UST futures trading close at 1pm, cash at 2pm. </li> <li>Citic Securities and Guosen Securities late Thursday announced probes by the securities regulator and Haitong Securities confirmed Friday it was under investigation</li> <li>The Securities Association of China will ban brokerages from offering financing for stock market trading using derivatives, the country’s securities regulator said</li> <li>A Chinese fertilizer maker and a pig iron producer have flagged bond payment difficulties, adding to signs of stress in the nation’s corporate note market after at least six defaults this year</li> <li>Russia’s Vladimir Putin gave a tentative nod toward cooperation with an anti-terror alliance sought by France’s Hollande after the two met for almost three hours in Moscow on Thursday</li> <li>President Xi Jinping announced a major overhaul of China’s military to make the world’s largest army more combat ready and better equipped to project force beyond the country’s borders</li> <li>Portugal’s new Prime Minister Antonio Costa will need to keep a group of anti-austerity radicals onside to sustain his minority Socialist government after his maneuver to seize power tore up a four-decade political convention</li> <li>Euro-area economic confidence matched its highest level in more than four years as the European Central Bank prepares to make a decision on whether to increase stimulus</li> <li>No IG or HY deals Wednesday. BofAML Corporate Master Index OAS widens 1bp to +163, YTD range 180/129. High Yield Master II OAS widens 2bp to +637, YTD range 683/438</li> <li>Sovereign 10Y bond yields lower. Asian stocks plunge, European stocks gain, U.S. equity-index futures higher. Crude oil and gold lower, copper little changed</li> </ul> <p><strong>US Economic Calendar</strong></p> <ul> <li>No data</li> </ul> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1200" height="675" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Australia Black Friday BOE Bond China Consumer Prices Copper Creditors Crude Crude Oil European Central Bank Finance Industry High Yield Japan Unemployment Vladimir Putin Volatility Yen Fri, 27 Nov 2015 11:46:55 +0000 Tyler Durden 517120 at