• Sprott Money
    05/06/2016 - 06:03
    The US, in its own decline, is showing this same self-destructive tendency. The worse things get, the greater the inclination of the citizenry to say, “Carry on, everything’s fine.”

$10 TRILLION Liquidity Injection Coming? Credit Suisse Hunkers Down Ahead Of The European Endgame

Tyler Durden's picture




 

When yesterday we presented the view from CLSA's Chris Wood that the February 29 LTRO could be €1 Trillion (compared to under €500 billion for the December 21 iteration), we snickered, although we knew quite well that the market response, in stocks and gold, today would be precisely as has transpired. However, after reading the report by Credit Suisse's William Porter, we no longer assign a trivial probability to some ridiculous amount hitting the headlines early in the morning on February 29. Why? Because from this moment on, the market will no longer be preoccupied with a €1 trillion LTRO number as the potential headline, one which in itself would be sufficient to send the Euro tumbling, the USD surging, and provoking an immediate in kind response from the Fed. Instead, the new 'possible' number is just a "little" higher, which intuitively would make sense. After all both S&P and now Fitch expect Greece to default on March 20 (just to have the event somewhat "priced in"). Which means that in an attempt to front-run the unprecedented liquidity scramble that will certainly result as nobody has any idea what would happen should Greece default in an orderly fashion, let alone disorderly, the only buffer is having cash. Lots of it. A shock and awe liquidity firewall that will leave everyone stunned. How much. According to Credit Suisse the new LTRO number could be up to a gargantuan, and unprecedented, €10 TRILLION!

Here is how the strawman is now put in place for what may the biggest liquidity injection in modern history in just under two months.

February’s second 3-year LTRO looks set to be extremely large. Really extravagant claims (we have heard reports of €10 tn) are probably wide of the mark because this will not be a complete collateral free-for-all (unless NCBs choose to make it so, which for some of them is admittedly an open question; again, see rational player section below). But the idea of path-finder lightning springs to mind (High-speed cameras reveal that lightning evolves “bang BANG”, essentially); the last LTRO has removed any stigma, making managements who do not exploit the value on offer arguably careless at best. This is, on the face of it, very cheap protection indeed against any possibility of a liquidity crisis for three years.

Naturally, if indeed there is anything even remotely resembling a €10 trillion expansion in the ECB's sub €3 trillion balance sheet, all bets will be off as the ratio of the ECB to the Fed assets, a correlation which would imply a sub parity level on the EURUSD would gut corporate earnings in the US, all merely to prevent the disintegration of the Eurozone. And while this event will be welcomed by the Fed initially as it will send stocks exploding to potentially all time highs (and gold to well over $2000/ounce), it will cripple the US manufacturing model unless the Fed immediately responds in kind, and prints outright, and unsterilized, a non-trivial comparable amount. In other words, the world could very well enter the final round of global coordinated currency devaluation, aka FX war, together. Yes, that means coordinated printing by the SNB, BOE, PBoC, BOJ, etc, etc. Simply in a last ditch attempt to preserve the status quo. Which, unfortunately, after the knee jerk reaction, will fail. CS explains why:

But there are many problems, particularly at the systemic level. So, although an eye-catching number may trigger a rally (to be clear: 29 February is an eternity away in the current environment), Greece is a salutary reminder that treating a solvency problem as a liquidity problem, including buying time for solvency to be addressed and other dubious concepts, is a disaster for existing creditors, who are subordinated throughout by the senior rescue funds. It also shows that three years is an eternity and that timescales (such as the possible introduction of resolution regimes) are flexible. It remains unclear to us where the new capital for the European banking system is going to come from if not from existing bondholders and that, in some cases, that must involve senior, in our view. So the LTRO is another example of reducing idiosyncratic risk at the expense of systematizing risk, in our view.

 

The participating bank needs a plan for refinancing the LTRO; the lack of a plan means that financing will not be forthcoming, in a death spiral. So the massive provision of official liquidity will act as a long-term triage and increases the pressure (albeit over a longer period) to raise capital. It is a free lunch only for stronger banks, in some sense, and at the systemic level is anything but. Rather, it is paid for by those with senior exposure to weaker banks.

In fact, Credit Suisse is openly hunkering down as it now see the "endgame taking shape" - "We do not expect the downgrade of France to have an immediate impact, but it highlights very clearly to us the ultimate issue that has to be tested in the euro area. Will Germany hold together the euro as, when and if France becomes part of the periphery?"

Here is how the European endgame will look, through the prism of game theory.

The Nashing of teeth

 

We continue to analyse the euro area sovereigns in game theoretic terms, with the game looking from outside like a CDO where value allocation is a function of expected losses and of correlation (distribution of those losses in a tranche structure).

 

In simplistic terms, we have stated that Portugal cannot rescue Greece (i.e., Greece's creditors), Spain cannot rescue Portugal, Italy cannot rescue Spain, France cannot rescue Italy, but Germany can rescue France.

 

In equally simplistic terms, we have stated many times that “crises are baked into the cake”.

 

With the CDO and game theory analysis, we have formally modelled both statements. In the game theory, we concluded that the most likely outcome is a series of ever-deeper crises and relief rallies culminating in a definitive moment. Before that definitive moment, our analysis suggests that both core and periphery parties playing hard-ball leads to an escalation of the crisis, but not calamity. Only at the decisive moment does a “collision” in our game of chicken model lead to catastrophe. We remain convinced that the decisive crisis has not been seen yet.

What we have not done before is put the two statements together. To do so, it strikes us that each “wave” of the series of crises represents the transition of a country or countries to the periphery. We started with the “Greek crisis”, still under way with, at the time of writing, both parties threatening hardball. Then we had the rest of the outer periphery, with Ireland “swerving” rather spectacularly and Portugal not so clear. This led to a set of rescue plans that made the implicit assumption that the periphery would broaden no further.

 

But the outer periphery was followed by Italy and Spain as the crisis emerged in the summer as truly systemic. The resulting crises have been forestalled, for now, by ECB action (SMP and 3-year LTRO). Now, the (well-flagged) action by S&P hints at the final crisis.

 

Current news on Greece raises the question of whether the (existing) core wants to “rescue Greece”, amid the usual nonsensical debate about laziness and doctors’ swimming pools. But our analysis suggests a steady narrowing of the core and broadening of the periphery as we head to the ultimate question. Would Germany want to rescue France? And – see the below section on the rationality assumption – would France want to be rescued? We are not gong to futurize French politics, but we note that we are already in a situation where it is not impossible that Le Pen eliminates Sarkozy in the first round, according to the polls. By definition, France finding itself on the periphery would damage France’s leadership position in Europe and risk a change in politics. Of course, we think the ultimate answers are “yes” and “yes”, but that frisson of doubt, in light of the consequences of the implications, will keep the market well on its toes.

Putting it all together: the rational national player assumption.

News agencies try to reconstruct the internal national debates of the euro area, which are often carried out fairly openly, it has to be said. But a country often has a simple choice to express to the world, and we model this in our game theory as “hard” or “soft”. We make, thereby, a key assumption, that a country acts in a way that appears rational when viewed externally as a single entity in that single action.

 

We have complained for years that countries cannot be seen as monoliths. We need to consider the possibility that the outcome of the internal game, since it is not fully transparent to the outside, can superficially seem irrational. Circumstances could be envisioned where a player chooses to play hard in a situation where he knows that it will damage national interests, i.e., playing hard will be worse for it than playing soft. For example, it might be rational for a player within France, lets say le Pen or Sarkozy, to play uncooperatively in the European context, if that is beneficial from a French or individual perspective. Even within the European context, a country playing "irrationally" aggressively can be part of a rational strategy of brinkmanship behaviour. For example, by trying to make a threat look more credible. We could be seeing this in German attitudes to Greece, as we explore below. The corollary is that this can only work up to the penultimate stage of the crisis, as only that way one can try to force the other player to do the right thing in the final stage. Overall, we see the risk to be vigilant with the rational monolithic player assumption in the euro area. And, of course, flexing it does not invalidate our conclusions, it merely points out that getting it wrong is a key risk in the analysis. This is framed by the historical context, where Europe has achieved disastrous outcomes under the incentives of the time.

 

The risk of the simplification can be highlighted by a simple example. The rational action of the College of Cardinals under the post-13th century papal conclave is collectively to fill the vacant Papacy immediately. Individually, as well, the cardinals have the same incentive; no matter how beautiful the ceiling of the Sistine Chapel, they can see it anytime. So any sensible rational expectation of the smoke colour, based on treating the conclave as a single rational entity, is white at all times, including on the first day. That assumption would have led our observer astray by 82 rounds over 50 days between 1830 and 1831. Similarly, as we head into elections in France, already referred to above, and to Germany, the assumption is likely to come under some stress. We think that understanding of the internal “game” is most central in these two countries, particularly Germany. This is because, in our view, the periphery playing “soft”, rationally or irrationally, cannot make the crisis resolve on its own. Or, austerity is not sufficient. The central question, now hoving into view, is whether France and Germany, when the time comes, can co-operate. By then France may be in an embarrassingly inferior position, possibly forcing a Nationalist response that is apparently irrational when viewed externally but rational when viewed in consideration of internal incentives.

 

Between Greece, French elections and the downgrades, the situation remains as deeply uncertain as ever. The effect of the LTRO may last a while longer, buoyed by a negative market, but we are on the alert for a turn.

Finally, CS' appendix on why what started with Greece, will likely end with it:

We no longer publish views on Greece because the situation is too fluid to permit it, but we would observe that a key is whether sufficient voluntary participation can be induced to enable a CAC to be credibly introduced. In this case, “free-loading” on anything other than the 20 March bond becomes dangerous if a further restructuring is thought necessary, which we regard as the market’s expectation. In a game-theoretic sense, which is still the only way we can look at it, the dominant strategy, if a restructuring on more burdensome terms is expected with probability 1, is to volunteer now. The exception is the basis holders but, as we have pointed out many times, CDS are a tiny fraction of bond outstandings so basis holders are unlikely to tip the balance. Free-loading on March is a much more subtle game given that there is not time for a second round and the authorities would still like to avoid a hard event. What would they be willing to pay for this? How much 20 March is held outside the ECB and banks which are under official influence? etc. As we write, both parties seem to be playing “hard”, suggesting a suboptimal outcome of a hard default. As examined above, at this relatively early stage of the game we should expect a “swerve”, most probably by the core. But continued playing hard might be the outcome of rational behaviour by either party, given the multi-stage nature of the game. What message would paying the 20 March in full on Greece’s behalf give to the rest of the periphery?

The last bolded sentence is precisely what we warned about last week when we said that should Greece devolve into a full out coercive restructuring, the one real question would be: "who is next?"

Needless to say, if Credit Suisse is even 20% correct in its estimates, and the more we think about it, the more plausible it is that 20 days ahead of the Greek default the ECB will bend over to provide every last penny European banks may need, and then some, to firewall exposure fall out (since none except for UniCredit actually did a capital raise and we all saw what happened then), then all bets are truly off. Should the ECB indeed escalate events to this degree, then we are about to leave the paradigm started with the late 2008 bailout of Lehman, and enter one in which every incremental swing in the global socio-economic sinewave could well be the last.

As such, attempting to predict what happens after becomes futile.

Incidentally, those curious what a €10 trillion expansion to the ECB's balance sheet without a proportionate response by the Fed, would do to balance sheet correlation, and implicitly, to the EURUSD pair (the correlation was explained previously here), this presents it vividly.

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Tue, 01/17/2012 - 14:05 | 2071606 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Why not just say infinity bitchez....

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 14:06 | 2071609 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Yea that works

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 14:14 | 2071653 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

March is the event horizon.
Incredible how the sheeple still don't react.
And they will never react.
It's like a smoker who KNOWS smoking is deadly yet keeps on puffing.

Survival of the fittest.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 14:18 | 2071671 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Yes, it will be March.

Been saying March 4th and the Spring equinox as inflection points for.....months.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 14:27 | 2071706 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

Buy GOLD, Bitchez ...

 

 

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 14:31 | 2071728 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Buy anything you can bitchez!

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 14:36 | 2071753 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Buy, buy Bitchez!

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 14:53 | 2071817 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Hey, didn't I tell you guys it did not matter? Froth off a venti latte in the grand scheme of things.

That Quadrillions were a-slosh in the sewers of the global financial under-world? I'm sure people said, no way...

The official audited text above is part of paragraph 132 on page 18 (here) of a Committee of 300 élite Secret Government document signed on Wednesday 10th February 2010 on page 106 (here). Page 19 of this same document can be viewed here.

The three signatories on the document are H.E. President Robert Zoellick (President of The World Bank), H.E. Vice President Lars Thunell(Executive Vice President and CEO of the International Finance Corporation) and HM Queen Alexandra Elizabeth Mary Windsor II (Chairman of The Committee of 300, The British Royal Family).

The full text of Paragraph 132 flagged in the yellow panel above reads as follows: "The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (London, UK and Hong Kong, PROC) Account no. 0567105267802012 with account name of White Spiritual Boy and with standing balances per account worth US$ 1,030,000,000,000,000,000 with reconfirmed and reconsidered matured earnings audited by the Financial Institution of the Committee of 300 for the month of January to April 2010 worth of US$ 434,000,000,000,000,000 in the total of US$ 1,464,000,000,000,000,000 (US$ 464,000,000,000,000 had deducted automatically for bank charges and services for the first quarter of audit maturity) in the net balances of US$ 1,000,000,000,000,000,000."

 

Well? Ehhhhhh? That is Quadrillions and hundreds of quadrillions and thousands of quadrillions.

So pure. So White.

Relax, this will not hurt one bit...

ori

/1460-days-ago-

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 15:03 | 2071835 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

...it will cripple the US manufacturing model unless the Fed immediately responds in kind, and prints outright, and unsterilized, a non-trivial comparable amount. In other words, the world could very well enter the final round of global coordinated currency devaluation, aka FX war, together. Yes, that means coordinated printing by the SNB, BOE, PBoC, BOJ, etc, etc. Simply in a last ditch attempt to preserve the status quo.

As you all well know, I concur, except for the part about it being the final round.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 15:04 | 2071850 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

10 Trillion Euro? 

Hey SNB: peg THIS, bitches.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 15:40 | 2071962 Chris Jusset
Chris Jusset's picture

So this is what the "endgame" looks like? Printing to infinity, with the central banks' balance sheets ballooning to infinity.

 

Let the history books take notice that on January 17, 2012, we ZHer's predicted the endgame scenarios.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 16:11 | 2072043 Badabing
Badabing's picture

one Euro will =92cents LOL

 

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 15:42 | 2071967 redpill
redpill's picture

It sounds even better if you say it like Elmer Fudd

 

Ten Twillwion Euwows!

 

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 16:04 | 2072021 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

Thanks dude.  That was a great laugh!

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 16:47 | 2072118 economics1996
economics1996's picture

This $10 trillion seems like a bull shit number.  Are these fuckers real?

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 18:02 | 2072446 CPL
CPL's picture

Now you are starting to see the big picture.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 15:03 | 2071844 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Thanks for the info ORI.
Infinite justice is about to be delivered.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 15:10 | 2071859 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Sure Ahmee, so many NUMBers out there, makes one's head spin.

But I think everyone might be under-estimating the scale of the reset.

Here's the link, Caveat Emptor and all. Nuts though...

http://alcuinbramerton.blogspot.com/2012/01/global-banking-crisis-what-global.html

 

ori

 

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 16:02 | 2072012 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Aren't "thousands of quadrillions" (FTA) quintillions?

I mean, it's not like sugar coating it makes it any easier to swallow.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 17:45 | 2072394 Canaduh
Canaduh's picture

Whoever faked that 'document' floating around the internet must be getting a good chuckle.

Anyone who sees the numbers in it and thinks 'zomg I've stumbled onto the secretz of the elitez' like ORI, please give your head a fucking shake.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 20:35 | 2072824 UncleFester
UncleFester's picture

Canaduh,

Shake your head all you want after you read this...

http://www.rumormillnews.com/pdfs/11%20civ%208500%20Keenan%20Complaint.pdf

That's a rumor lawsuit in NY, NY.  Everyone feel free to do their own due diligence.  A little help from ZH's in NY?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1-btrWznJM

That's a report on the US bonds seized by the Italians that barely made it to the US airwaves.

IFester

 

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 00:13 | 2073364 Canaduh
Canaduh's picture

LOL, my favorite part- "the Notes were printed to appear as if they were not produced from official origin and bear obvious imperfections,therefore easily deniable."

(BTW, if 'the Dragon Family' were real, they would be the biggest fucking idiots in the world)

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 03:03 | 2073635 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

Printing that amount of money is just as effective as wiping the debt clean if you were after an honest result! But rape is only honest when.....

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 18:31 | 2072532 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Thanks Ori, a very good read!

Fri, 01/20/2012 - 22:49 | 2083243 matrix2012
matrix2012's picture

Thanks ORI for the link.

There it has among other further reference to bibliotecapleyades.net

Two pertinent standout links at bibliotecapleyades:

Conspirators' Hierarchy - The Story of the Committee of 300

TOC

  1. An Overview and some Case Histories
  2. Institutions Through Which Control is Exercised
  3. Past and Present Institutions/Organizations and those Directly Under Influence of The Committee of 300
  4. Special Foundations and Interest Groups
  5. Banks
  6. Legal Associations and Lawyers
  7. Accountants / Auditors
  8. Tavistock Institutions in the United States
  9. Past and Present Members of The Committee of 300

 

The Committee of 300

The "Committee of 300" now call themselves "World Government Founders for the NWO".

TOC

  1. The Story of The Committee of 300 - Conspirators' Hierarchy
  2. Committee of 300 aka Olympians - Targets of the Illuminati and the Committee of 300
  3. Diplomacy by Deception - An Account of the Treasonous Conduct by The Governments of Britain and The United States
  4. Order of The Garter
  5. Targets of The Illuminati and The Committee of 300
  6. The Bilderberg Group - Main File
  7. The Club of Rome - Committee of 300
  8. The FEDs Have Sued for Peace and Detailed Settlement Negotiations Have Begun
  9. The Tavistock Institute - Main File

 

 

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 16:03 | 2071956 VelvetHog
VelvetHog's picture

This horsecrap claims sums of over a QUINTILLION dollars.  Horse pucky!

 

Committee of 300, my pimply ass.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 16:28 | 2072078 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

300 more gallows will be needed at the hills of Tyburn.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 01:56 | 2073576 FlyPaper
FlyPaper's picture

and guys with heavy unkempt beards go to the head of the line

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 16:18 | 2072072 Backspin
Backspin's picture

What in the world is that about?  Those numbers simply aren't believable.  Most people don't understand Very Big Numbers, but my BS meter goes of the chart with that one.  Can you give some context to that document for us?

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 16:37 | 2072132 Canaduh
Canaduh's picture

Shhh, you read it on the internet so it must be true.

Sat, 01/21/2012 - 02:47 | 2083602 matrix2012
matrix2012's picture

It's written on the WIKIPEDIA...so it must be true! Further YOUTUBE, FACEBOOK, GOOGLE all have it. Thus they must be true :)

National Endowment for Democracy (NED); George Soros' Open Society and Media Development Loan Fund (MDLF); Rockefeller Foundation; Heinrich Böll Foundation; Freedom House; Human Rights Watch; Amnesty International; International Federation for Human Rights, et al all are giving hands, said it, so it must be true :)

What i have NO DOUBT as TRUE are that LIBYA are raped! Syria and Iran are the next target! Gaddhafi was screwed and assasinated! Iran's nuclear scientists were murdered by the collaboration of M0$$AD & the 3-Letter-Agency!

and well, a long list to go here... just fill in

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 16:37 | 2072133 Canaduh
Canaduh's picture

Shhh, you read it on the internet so it must be true.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 18:28 | 2072525 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

of course he can't

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 16:28 | 2072104 patience...
patience...'s picture

Do you have a link for all the pages?

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 00:49 | 2073446 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Right here patience. AS I said above Caveat Emptor.

And by the way, all naysayers need to brush up on their history of a man called Christopher Story.

Link

ori

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 01:02 | 2073467 Canaduh
Canaduh's picture

Nice link, lol.

How does this have anything to do with Christopher Story?(another prominent bullshit artist who specializes in seperating fools from their money)

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 11:18 | 2074239 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

He's Dead Canaduh, Duh! Murdered. Con Artist? I'll take a 30 year published intelligence career over your dumb anonymous ass. And of course it is related. Duh! Keep yoru blinders and earplugs firmly plugged brother canaduh.

ori

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 16:34 | 2072125 undercover brother
undercover brother's picture

10 to the 17th power dollars  Scientific notation now needed to sum up balance sheets.  LOL WTF!

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 15:38 | 2097246 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

who will be appeared his signature herein below.

 

 

 

 

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 16:16 | 2072065 HeNateMe
HeNateMe's picture

WTF?  The Muffinsaurus?  I'll only buy it if the pages are made of silver.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 14:38 | 2071759 Vaiman
Vaiman's picture

Let's buy a vowel!

P_ ss  _ff  H_p_ _m  Sm_k_rs!

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 14:49 | 2071798 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Vowels / consonants.... they're all confusing.

This idiot is priceless:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMghvnqDhT8&feature=related

 

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 14:49 | 2071800 JFK.4PREZ
JFK.4PREZ's picture

The revolution will be close when I see this bumper sticker on a prius...

 

http://www.zazzle.com/hopium_feels_good_until_it_wears_off_bumpersticker-128322983042758459

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 08:37 | 2073850 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Buy Wheat BITCHEZ

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 15:48 | 2071985 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

Too many bitchezoids here.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 14:28 | 2071709 SheepDog-One
Tue, 01/17/2012 - 14:35 | 2071744 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

Just Reverse Split the Euro.   A 1 for 10 reverbo should do the trick.   Look how well they work for stocks.  Cough.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 14:40 | 2071764 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Don't give them any ideas ;)

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 14:38 | 2071757 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The shithawks are circling

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!