10 Year Treasury Yield Breaks To New All-Time Low

Tyler Durden's picture

10Y Treasury yields just broke to new all-time record low yields (marginally lower than the 9/23 1.6714% previous lows) and while the 'rates-can't-go-any-lower' crowd perhaps have not looked at JGBs recently (as in the last decade) in price terms, 10Y Treasury Futures have gained 4.6% since 3/20 swing lows while the S&P 500 has lost 6.0%. On the bright side, at least the front-end isn't inverted yet...yet.

At the same time 30Y yields are inching towards their own record low yields, having brokemn Deceber lows and back to Oct 2011 levels (still 7bps off the intraday low yields of 2.6922% for now).

Chart: Bloomberg

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Aziz's picture

Definitely not a bubble

Colombian Gringo's picture

Yeah, 2.69% on the 30 year, a guaranteed loss every year by inflation. No bubble here.

scatterbrains's picture

No patriotism comes when you pay the gov. protection money to hold the bonds, which will get even more expensive as the Euro splits apart and armed border skirmishes begin flaring up over there.

catacl1sm's picture

When can I get a negative yield UST? I'm chompin' at the bit here!

Comay Mierda's picture

when the treasury came out with floating rate notes anyone who thought interest rates would rise is an idiot

market pressure will force this bond bubble higher

scatterbrains's picture

You could always wait until gold ownership is outlawed and existing holders face 80% windfall profit taxes on the mandated sale back to central bankers (or face life imprisonment for being a monetary terrorist) but by then protection via paying to hold treasuries will probably cost you a lot more.  



GMadScientist's picture

"when you pay the gov. protection money to hold the bonds"

What do you think negative real rates mean?!


scatterbrains's picture

true enough, I thought you meant in a traditional negative real rates sense. 

LongSoupLine's picture

It's not the fall that kills you...it's the impact.

Cdad's picture

Doug Kass Pain [DKP] must be going parabolic today.  Clear the shingles and prepare for the mother of all contrarian trades.

BorisTheBlade's picture

New Normal = Old Fucked Up

Taint Boil's picture



Low yields mean high demand to safety and quality and signals that money is flowing to safety which means lower borrowing costs for everyone including the US government. Of course this wouldn’t make the government to act irresponsibly. Damn … sounds like I’m MDB. 

Jim in MN's picture

More like no sane person dares to swim with the robot sharks with laser beams on their heads...AKA any paper market...except USTs...and even there it's a loss net of inflation.

The BEST you can do is a loss, net of inflation.  Let that sink in for a minute.

Negative real returns across all asset classes.  How's that for a party?

bdc63's picture

And headed to 1.5% in short order ...

... pension fund managers with their 7-8% retrun targets? ... SO screwed ... and by association so are the rest of us ...

francis_sawyer's picture

So ~ that $94,000 a year pension that you get from NYC for your 20 years of standing there watching 2 other guys screw in a light bulb is in jeopardy?

odatruf's picture

You mean it was promised in future value terms? The union negotiators ought to be lined up and given cigarettes. Outdoors of course, and far enough apart that no one has to suffer second hand smoke.

GMadScientist's picture

Bankers first, in a line, so we can conserve ammo.

Jim in MN's picture

LOL, yes, pensions are the cause of all the strife.  Should be an easy fix.  We're saved!


The point being that ANY investment or savings target is screwed.  Meaning more savings are required.  Meaning spending and consumption have to drop.  Meaning...we're screwed, in the conventional sense.


Of course it would be better if we hadn't been given every incentive on God's green earth to lever up on debt...and now, better if everyone got through the washout faster, not in a twenty-year grinding Japanified zombiefest.  But central bankers are stupid, corrupt, and unaccountable.  So, there you go.  We're EXTRA-screwed.

Winston Smith 2009's picture

Throughout the history of human civilization, the little guy always is.

Holy Grail Protest


azzhatter's picture

a simple devaluation will take care of that, here's your $94K go get a loaf of bread

fonzannoon's picture

not a bubble. Nope.

eclectic syncretist's picture

Bubble = opportunity


Timing and capital preservation will be crucial to taking full advantage of this opportunity


Genève Barbegazi's picture

but even with cheap debt, the valuation problems of the past 10 years will ensure equity funding shortfalls everywhere...especially in CRE

youngman's picture

And you are killing savers......a bad lesson to learn...spending is good...saving is bad...

odatruf's picture

It is not so much spending as debt. Leverage is good. OPM, as always.

Stimulati's picture

So this is a bubble but gold is not a bubble?  My money says this trend outlasts the gold trend.

fonzannoon's picture

Do you have any understanding of how gold performs in times of negative real rates?

Terminus C's picture

But if you have no gold, you don't actually have any money...

"Gold is money, all the rest is credit." JP Morgan

GMadScientist's picture

"You can't pick cherries with your back to the tree."

Genève Barbegazi's picture

Negative real rates are the "key metric" (as tyler, i think put it) to the gold trend

mayhem_korner's picture



It is, but the catalyst to decoupling real money (gold) from fake/debt money (fiat) is money velocity.  As long as MV is supressed, things will continue to seem normal to the sheeple, despite the deep decay.  Once MV picks up (bank runs spurned by inflation and/or panic), the decoupling will accelerate asymptotically.  IMHO.

mayhem_korner's picture

So this is a bubble but gold is not a bubble?  My money says this trend outlasts the gold trend.


The mother tongue of your "money" is fiat.  That's why it is telling you that. 

Re-orient your perspective to view things priced in gold and you will see that (1) gold is not a bubble, and (2) pretty much everything else is losing purchasing power.

slaughterer's picture

10y heading for .001%.  There, fixed it for you. 

eclectic syncretist's picture

Wasn't the Federal Reserve created in order to prevent booms and busts?

bdc63's picture

no, silly, they were created to cause booms and busts ... how else are the wealthy and powerful insiders going to get wealthier and powerfullier? ... you don't expect them to play by the same rules as the rest of us, do you?

Flakmeister's picture

In all fairness to the Fed, it was formed at a time when unqualified amatuers were central bankers and things pretty much ran on their own.  The sucess of monetary policy was a crapshoot. Sort of like the case when a country's fortunes were at the mercy of the generalship of its "divinely chosen" king... 

The game has changed and the impact of the new rules is starting to show, aka, the death of debt based growth in a world of finite resources....

Flakmeister's picture

Unlike you, who seems to be living in some kind bubble where you only hear and see what you want....

You are a shining example of American Exceptionalism and the Dunning-Kruger Effect....

smb12321's picture

Just as the Energy Dept was supposed to lead us into energy independence, HUD into mass home ownership and the Education Dept into higher academic standards.   And if one the mandates of the FED was controlling the recession/expainsion actions then it, along with the others, gets a big fat "F".   (But send us a few hundred billion more and we'll fix the problem.)

Flakmeister's picture

Beg pardon, when/who promised that the DOE would "lead us into energy independence"?

Flakmeister's picture

Out of curiousity, do you even know what the DOE does?

PS He makes no such promise in your clip... either you are hearing impaired or having a learning disability... Based on the nonsense you type here, my money is on the latter...

francis_sawyer's picture

It's a waste of time arguing with you about anything (so this is my last comment on the subject)...

In the video clip, Carter is clearly referring to rolling 50 separate agencies dealing with energy into one... This became a reality later that year when the DOE (a cabinet level agency) was formed, with, the stated purpose of reducing America's dependence on foreign oil... The DOE has grown into a typical bloated behemoth employing over 16,000 federal workers (won't bother getting into pensions thereof), and a $25 billion dollar budget... Which accomplished what?... Um, director Stephen Chu thinks that people should paint their fucking rooftops white to help stop global warming...

That is clear for anyone to see... So all that is left is arguing as to whether you want to nitpick the above comment which failed to distinguish whether 'reducing' dependence on foreign oil, or, "lead us into energy independence" (which is just as vague a statement), are the same or not (in spirit)... In summary, arguing this matter is as much a waste of time as the DOE has been a waste of money...

Flakmeister's picture

You are handwaving and trying to play semantics after I called you out on your bullshit....

Face it, you got pwned....

And as I suspected, you have no idea what the DOE does....nada, zip....

Stimulati's picture

Booms and busts were much more common prior to the Fed.  You could look it up.