1001 Moonless Kinetic Nights: Presenting The Windows Of Opportunity For An Iranian Attack

Tyler Durden's picture

Following last Friday's majority vote by the Israel Security Council authorizing Iranian "action" when required, answering the "if", the only open question remains "when." As it turns out, based on the following analysis by Rapidan Group, there are only 10 or so distinct 10 day New Moon windows for the remainder of 2012. If one removes the sandstorm prone months of April, July and September, there are 7 periods in which a military strike is realistic. Also CVN 65 is moving at a snail's pace and is just now approaching the Straits of Gibraltar.  Since any action will likely not take place unless 3 aircraft carriers are in the vicinity, and because the ICE yesterday instituted ultra-short term trading spike curbs in crude, starting April 1, one can likely eliminate the immediately proximal March 17-27 window. Which leaves six. Our advice would be to buy up OTM calls in Brent in the days just ahead of the start of any such window, as any "surprise" attack will have a uplifting impact on all combustible assets, doubly so for levered ones.

From Rapidan Group

Timing Considerations

 

Based on press reports, officials see high odds of an attack sometime between 2Q12 and the end of the year, with most pointing to 2Q or 3Q.

 

If Israel elects to conduct a conventional military strike, the optimal conditions would be moonless and cloudless nights. “Operation Orchard,” Israel’s attack on Syria’s reactor at Al-Kibar on Sep 6, 2007, took place 5 days before the new moon. This suggests windows starting about 5 days before a new moon and ending five days after - see the table below. Low humidity is also ideal, but not required.

 

Attackers would want to avoid sandstorms, which have afflicted Iran in April, July, and September in recent years. Last year, a large sandstorm in mid-April hit 20 provinces, forcing the shutdown of schools and businesses. Sandstorms are visible and predictable, however, and would be taken into account by planners.

 

For non-kinetic options, climate is not a consideration to our knowledge. Presumably, they would be tried before kinetic ones and only after leaders were convinced Iran had not yet felt enough pain to compel it to freeze enrichment. 

 

And here is the latest naval update from Stratfor. Keep your eye on CVN 65. It should be well inside the Mediterranean within a few days.

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Gully Foyle's picture

Just get it the fuck over! I hate the goddamned cocktease.

I think I need to buy a gun's picture

agreed, yesterday saudi arabia was dumping oil into the market the day before it was the spr and tomorrow it will be canada is giving away free oil yet my gas station is now $4.00.......Congressman were asking bernanke about a gas station double today and if there would be any economic consequences

The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

An innocent Iranian civilian right now is wondering......"WTF did I do to warrant this shit?"

Spirit Of Truth's picture

It's what they didn't do, i.e., topple the apocalyptically-minded nutjobs running their country.  But, alas, the lunatics are running the asylum across the world in this day and age, so what's the difference. 

Idiot Savant's picture

Funny, your statement applies equally to Iran, Israel and America.

CIABS's picture

Please let's get it over with and put Stratfor out of business...

AldousHuxley's picture

iranians just looking for US to screw themselves up by putting too many ships in the tight spot

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Hartford_and_USS_New_Orleans_collision

NeoRandian's picture

As I was raised in an evangelical household by a father who believes that the AntiChrist is coming from Baghdad, the creation of Israel means the return of Jesus and armageddon is immanent, and pretty much draws all his political and foreign policy opinions from the bible, I concur that a large portion of Americans are in fact apocolyptic fundamentalists.

DrunkenMonkey's picture

"I concur that a large portion of Americans are in fact apocolyptic fundamentalists"

Further proof, if we needed it, that the US is one big insane asylum.

We love y'all, but please think about the rest of us from time to time.

He_Who Carried The Sun's picture

Not a thing will happen before US elections took place.

And the day after...? Of course...!

13thWarrior's picture

The plan is to install a nut-job who will b ewilling to wage war towards Israel, not the other way around.

Tigranes's picture

The Islamic Revolution is over thirty years old at this point and its ideological fervor has diminished greatly. The Mullahs are only interested in maintaing their power in Iran, not starting some kind of mass Shia Jihad against the world. Iranians are not Fremen warriors hell bent on subjugating the known universe. Most are just trying to live their lives in peace, like any other people in the world. 

AldousHuxley's picture

Arabian

One Thousand and One Nights


The main story concerns an American king and his new bride, Petro. King is discover that his wife Petro has been unfaithful, selling herself to other men in China so he has her executed: but in his bitterness and grief decides that all women are the same. The king, begins to force a succession of virgins to marry him only to execute each one the next morning's dollar printing event, before she has a chance to dishonour him. Eventually the Jewish vizier, whose duty it is to provide them, cannot find any more virgins. Iranianade, the vizier's daughter, offers herself as the next bride. On the night of their marriage, Iraniande begins to tell the king a tale, but does not end it. The king is thus forced to postpone her execution in order to hear the conclusion. The next night, as soon as she finishes the tale, she begins a new one, and the king, eager to hear the conclusion, postpones her execution once again. So it goes on for 1,001 nights....

Nukular Freedum's picture

Lets see what the Evil One has to say... Oh noes that again!

cherokeepilot's picture

Excuse me, are you talking about Iran or the U.S.S. A.??

taxpayer102's picture

 

 

I notice a comment critical of the globalist war agenda posted to this article about 30 minutes ago has been removed.

dark pools of soros's picture

sometimes after site upgrades they still work out some kinks and reboot which vaporize some comments

ACP's picture

There's some serious stock ramping that needs to be done for maximum economic/psychological effect on retail investors.

Operation twist on the ol' "We never could've seen it coming!" excuse.

Gully Foyle's picture

ACP

So if something close to the stock shenanigans of 911 happens then we know it's game on.

A good war would make miss the BUD wildfeeds, you can't beat unedited news footage.

vast-dom's picture

And let's not confuse Isreal with the Jewish people; it'd be like confusing American policy with the average American -- oh wait, actually...in the case of the USheeple they are getting what they deserve (until they rudely wake up, or not)....

Bringin It's picture

Vast-dom - Who gave you the green? 

I did.  One of them anyways.

vast-dom's picture

Thx man. And now i shall reciprocate reciprocate.

ClevelandJanelle6's picture

my neighbor's aunt makes $67 hourly on the laptop. She has been fired from work for ten months but last month her check was $20142 just working on the laptop for a few hours. Here's the site to read more ....  http://lazycash9.com

nahshal's picture

The Moslem Revolution is over thirty years previous at this time and its aluminium windows philosophical fervor has diminished greatly. The Mullahs square measure solely curious about maintaing their power in Persia, not beginning some reasonably mass Shiah Islam Jihad against the planet. Iranians aren't Fremen warriors hell dead set subjugating the better-known universe. Most square measure simply attempting to measure their lives in peace, like several others within the world.

Randall Cabot's picture

What's so important about moonless nights? Can't they see with radar or some other technology?

Maybe the Enterprise is moving so slow to make the Iranians think they are safe until it gets there so they jew supremacists can sucker punch them right quick.

ALPO's picture

The United States has all kinds of technology to see in the dark. Iran doesn't.

Waiting for a moonless night maximizes the tactical advantage of this superior technology.

 

Uber Vandal's picture

Wouldn't that spoil the surprise if Russian and or China gave Iran similiar equipment.

The Persians did invent Chess after all.

SanOvaBeach's picture

I guess there r complete idiots on this string!  How can three (3) morons not agree w/ what u just said..............

TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Iran's radar systems don't require sunlight for operation.

 

Praetor's picture

Maybe they run on Leo's solars?

johnQpublic's picture

fact:

iraq had night vision in 1990 first gulf war

found 'em lying on the ground on several occasions

russian stuff

22 years later i'm sure iran has the same if not better by now

Collapsed's picture

I read this some time ago and thought it was interesting:

"On new moon day, the non-illuminated, i.e. dark side of the Moon faces towards Earth. Darkness emanates raja-tama predominant frequencies. Hence compared to when the illuminated side faces Earth, more subtle basic raja-tama predominant frequencies are transmitted towards Earth.

On new moon days, the raja-tama spreading ghosts (demons, devils, negative energies, etc.), people engaged in occult rituals and predominantly rajasik and tamasik people are strongly influenced and receive black energy for their raja-tama activities. As it is a day conducive for negative activities, it is considered an inauspicious day for any positive activities."

http://www.spiritualresearchfoundation.org/articles/id/spiritualresearch...

potlatch's picture

all true. blocked DARPA site; won't let me access for some reason.  strange.  hmmm

dark pools of soros's picture

don't u know muslims are werewolves and jews are vampires??   haven't u been watching Twi-blood or whatever?

Mitzibitzi's picture

Functionally, it makes little difference to the actual attack. Iran certainly has decent radars, probably decent sonic, IR and lo-light sensors and almost certainly enough night vision equipment to be of some use in defence against an 'allied' attack.

The reason to pick a moonless night, where possible, is because it severely hampers damage control operations. If the first wave of bombs / missiles succeeds in taking the mains power grid down (and it's a primary objective, along with air defence sites and as much C3 capability as you can get in the first strike), then important jobs like fire-fighting, repairing broken comm links, clearing rubble obstructing militarily important roads, etc have to be done with flashlights and whatever vehicle mounted lights you have. A full moon makes those jobs far easier.

Whatever we may think of the reasons for recent and upcoming military operations, you have to remember that killing as many people as possible is not now usually the main objective. Breaking the enemy's shit and then forcing him to expend time, energy and manpower to repair / clear the damage is more important. At least in the early stages. It's usually after air superiority is established and most ground defences have been suppressed that we start to hit targets with greater potential for collateral damage. And there are always two sides to that story; it's not good to take out a school inadvertently because there's a ZSU23/4 track parked right next to it, but then they shouldn't have parked a 'must destroy' air-defence weapon next to a school in the first place.

tankster's picture

Careful, this expression of the logical chain of events just qualified you as an enemy of the state...

Monedas's picture

Who says CVN 65 is going to the Straits of Whoremoos....maybe it's a head fake and will hang out around Syria and Israel ?  Milking all the tension and angst out of the situation is PSYOPS 101 !  Let 'em squirm in their feces laden butt towels....or whatever they wear under their body tents !   Monedas   2012   Heritage Staff Hoarder

hoos bin pharteen's picture

The increased carrier presence could be there as "insurance" against Iranian retaliation against the West in response to an attack by Israel.  The West seems unlikely to attack Iran, but I'd put even odds on a Syria hit. Something to remember: if a Syria hit happens, there are some Russian-supplied listening posts that would likely get leveled, coincidentally eliminating early warning to Iran of a pending attack.

Turkey has laid plans for a buffer zone in Syria to bottle up refugees.  Such a zone assumes the Syrian army is neutralized, because otherwise they wouldn't care if people leave, but would care a LOT if Turkey marched in and started herding people back toward Damascus.

potlatch's picture

total lockdown is a thing of beauty. good luck, is all i can say, eh?

old naughty's picture

...may be it has similar task as CVN76 after Fuk-u-sima...

oops, headfake=nuclear "accident" somewhere in EMEA?

eBuddha's picture

remember Ed Burns' movie, She's the One, where the 2 Irish brothers were acting like panzies towards each other and the dad goes and gets some old boxing gloves and forces the 2 to duke it out and settle the B.S. -- the U.S. should stand Israel up and line up anyone that has a beef and let them duke it.  I don't give a fk who wins, just end this b.s.

A Lunatic's picture

But instead of boxing gloves make them use scissors..........and do it on Boxing Day, eh.

potlatch's picture

only if it can be monetized.  otherwise, why ruin a good thing?  the longer the world needs fighere jets, the longer we rule.  it is in our interest that the entire world be embroiled in regional simmering military disputes.  we can sell them measures and countermeasures.  pays the bills

TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

.

pays the bills

Pays whose bills?

 

Jack Burton's picture

Saudi Arabia is ramping up oil production and leasing tankers. This would be the supply the US would need in a global oil shock caused by Iranian oil being pulled form the world market as the bombs rain down across that country.  This would provide some short term relief before invading forces could secure Iran's major fields for the western oil companies.

The US is really at the whim of Israel. Obama may not wish an Iranian war while he is trying to secure 4 more years in the White House. But I think all parties know that Israel decides this war. If they choose to start the war, the USA is duty bound to step in and finish the job. I think no one would argue that point. Obama has said he has Israel's back and the US would have to fund Israel's war effort anyways, as we fund most of their military hardware and operating budget.

So whoever is concerned about the coming Iran war should have their eyes focused on Israel. They are the deciders, and the USA will have to back their decession. Obama has NO choice, his armies will have to step in and wipe out anything Israel is unable to destroy.

Once the Iranian government is run by a new Shah and US military bases are set up across the country, then the oil fields can be brought into production again and the world oil price will settle back down. Israel doesn't much care, but the USA is concerned about an oil price shock.

War, if it comes, will come from the skies and the planes will be Israeli. When the war ends, the troops on the ground will be American and the ships in Irans ports will US Navy. In short, Isaeli knows they can start it and that the USA will both pay for it and finish it. That is a powerful position to be in. It leaves Israel in a no lose position. And that makes war attactive, no?

Lord Welligton's picture

Iranian oil is already subject to a boycott.

It is out of the market.

 

vast-dom's picture

Tell that to the Chinese and Russkies Wellington ;)