2008 Redux

Tyler Durden's picture

From Peter Tchir

Since this morning’s rant or comment, I have been informed of several other similarities:
 
•         No matter how far down we go, people are more concerned about missing a rally than the risk of another down leg
•         Bank CEO’s go on TV to calm shareholders and send letters to employees and the market reacts negatively
•         Rating agencies issue long lists of credit downgrades, MBS and CMBS then, sovereign and municipal debt related now
•         Pressure in the short term funding market are being talked about
•         No one can understand why CMBS isn’t down more
•         CDS is once again a 4 letter word
•         Mortgage Insurers (PMI) are back in deep trouble.
•         Fannie Mae is not government guaranteed.  Owned, yes, guaranteed, no.
 
I’ve also been informed of some key differences
 
•         Countries were in far less debt and austerity was not a commonly used word
•         EFSF didn’t exist and few people knew that the IMF wasn’t just for Emerging Markets
•         SOVX has been around for a few years, LCDX and ABX managed to drag down their respective markets much quicker
•         Alternative Method’s of Easing were just that, Alternative, as opposed to mainstream
•         China was doing incredibly well, and ghost town only applied to the old west
•         Companies have lots of cash on hand, after 2 years of record debt issuance
 
I am sure you will see a lot of other lists showing how different it is now.  They will likely be better thought out, but some of these may be food for thought.  I am not positioned as bearish as I sound, as some of the knee jerk reactions to rumors of bank insolvency seem overdone, but did feel the need to share some of the feedback I had received from earlier today, and maybe bring a smile to your face as it has now officially been a long week.  Long or short, or both, or in between, the volatility is taking its toll on people.

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High Plains Drifter's picture

yeh and its all meredith whitney's fault too............

redpill's picture

Notable difference from 2008: Gold has replaced the USD as the reserve currency of the world. And that barbarous Lone Ranger and his trusty horse Silver are riding fast.

"You tell him I'm comin'... and I'm bringin' hell with me."

Id fight Gandhi's picture

Metals were the only safe place to park your money for the last oh, decade.

Just hording cash is a losing battle. Costs on everything we need to buy have gone up.

spiral_eyes's picture

how high will gold go?

the real question is how low will the dollar go:

http://azizonomics.com/2011/08/10/how-high-will-gold-go/ 

Libertarians for Prosperity's picture

Speaking of how high will gold go...

I think the CME just hiked margin requirements on gold, effective tomorrow.

 

Two Towers AU AG's picture

Yes, I heard the same.. 20% hike in margin requirement effective tomorrow.. the KidLieLow was saying that on his show .

disabledvet's picture

so when a government with a massive trade surplus buys gold--do they do so on margin????? more to the point--"is the CME bankrupt" because we already know all they have is margin? (let me guess: backed by the entire city of Chicago.) we already know bank of america is. perhaps we need to expand our view of "margin"--as in "margin of safety" or "margin of error." if we live on THAT margin--well, we have a deficit indeed. While i'm on the subject and as Larry Kudlow is on the cusp of annihilating the City of New York--among MANY other cities of course--it's hard to imagine one guy cornered the entire gold market once. and now all we have is "gold is worthless" and "show me the stupid money of inflation" since all we "need to know is a steepening yield curve." why would the greatest banker in history actually corner the gold market again? it was suppose to be impossible. now it must be a piece of cake since gold is "in a bubble."

Two Towers AU AG's picture

Which effectively means.. I get to buy more Physical at cheap prices..... yaaaaaaaaaaa I love the CME

Thomas's picture

I'm not so sure. The after-hours market is not showing gold weakness.

caerus's picture

here's the game plan imo...hike rates...force selling...msm tells everyone the gold "bubble" just burst...whew, thanks msm!

Bob Paulson's picture

"how high will gold go? the real question is how low will the dollar go"

same thing.

Au_Ag_CuPbCu's picture

Grrrr, Don't laugh!  For the first time I am going to pull out the Visa and load it with silver.  I know I should have long ago but...well...I hate debt.  Please, wish me the best.

erg's picture

I can commiserate. I wanted to buy Au when it was $800 but I was overly preoccupied with removing debt. I finally jumped in with both feet last October. I am thankful for the timing. I should have went deeper into debt long ago in this regard.

Good luck!

EscapeKey's picture

1,815. Gold is money, and nothing else.

citta vritti's picture

yes, everything else is credit, and these days, who are you going to trust?

Idiot Savant's picture

"You tell him I'm comin'... and hell's comin' with me, you hear? Hell's comin' with me!! "

Rodent Freikorps's picture

" A horse that flinches, is no credit to its master."

hedgeless_horseman's picture

And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him. And power was given unto them over the fourth part of the earth, to kill with sword, and with hunger, and with death, and with the beasts of the earth.

I'm partial to grey geldings, myself.  Death will surely catch me, too, but it's going to be a race, a hunt, and a fight.

janus's picture

Hedgeless,

How dare you steal my material.  Somebody needs to tell you about my suit to win copyright over all Scripture.  So consider yourself told...and ceased and dissisted, etc.

I don't suggest anyone with continence issues read what follows the exerpt hedgeless has here posted; it tends to get a little dark and morbid after the bright and chipper opening.  funny that prophecy thing; has a way of poppin back up -- like they suspected us all along.

Hunter S Thompson call the Book of Rev his fav; and he wasn't limiting the field to Scripture -- now that's some cred...HST has had an influence on janus -- no doubt.

even so, janus prefers the book of job.  it's elegant and supurbly crafted -- i fall for the high-brow and beautiful readily.  here's a little gem from deep within that dour lamentation:

"man is born to trouble as the sparks fly upward."

and so it seems,

janus

smlbizman's picture

why does everybody say there is volatillity..there is no such thing...the market is going fuckin down and gold is going up....rapid asscent or descent i will consider.....there is no volatillity... 

Imminent Crucible's picture

You don't understand. "Volatility" is CNBS-Speak for "The markets are tanking! Oh no!"

When the Dow rises 600 pts in a day, no one on CNBS is lamenting the "volatility".

StychoKiller's picture

Double-plus good on ya!  I thought I was the only one to figure out that particular doublespeak!

guilty bystander's picture

yep, i noticed the same thing with BBC over last few days

Shell Game's picture

My golf game would be great if not for the sand traps and gounds keepers..

scratch_and_sniff's picture

My golf game would be great if not for my sex addiction...how many mickle's make a muckle?

Rodent Freikorps's picture

Hookers working the burger stand at the 9th green is just unfair.

janus's picture

drink-cart girlz, bitchez!  you start laying the foundation witht the cart girl in the spring, and by fall you're reaping a ripe harvest.  learn something...golf courses get nice and empty round about october, and the cart girl knows how empty it is behind you...how much time you have to 'chat'.

cart girl: i tried to find you in the phone book but they didn't have a listing for mr wonderful.

janus: what spelling did you use?

Absinthe Minded's picture

Tool. Exactly why my daughter will never be a beer cart girl.

janus's picture

we'll see about that.

besides, janus is a generous tipper.

Hard1's picture

I consistently hit 80 now.  When I hit the 80th stroke I leave the course...usually on the 12th hole or so.

Grinder74's picture

Hah, it only takes me 8 holes to get to 80. Lowest number wins right?

JohnG's picture

You'll meet O'cantswingadriver on 6.

Love to beat the shit out of that.....   -5 handicap.

Play every other day if it's not to hot at 6 am in GA.

Teeee, heeee.....

janus's picture

send all unused proVIs to janus, care of the "send janus your proVIs" campaign, a division of "janus knows what to do with them and you don't", LLC.

short game, bitchez!  where the wheat falls and the chaff spills off into second cuts and worse, way worse.

merci,

janus

Incubus's picture

golf is for losers.  go read a goddamned book

janus's picture

go and read a goddam book on golfing.

"golf is life's only worthwhile pursuit." (conclusion at age 93) PG Wodehouse...get some, bitch!

Nepenthe's picture

Whitney this morning on CNBS commenting on the Tea Party & then Santelli's response...

http://youtu.be/JCEzV_-Qyj4

THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Santelli is a court jester , nothing more.

moregoldplease's picture

Well chosen and very appropriate nickname you have there laddie

janus's picture

why do i like you european bastards? perhaps it's cause you're as shiftless and ornery as ole janus; for whom i've cultivated quite an affection, in spite of what all it's cost me.

chinaguy's picture

OT

CME gold margin hike

U.S. exchange operator CME Group CME +0.82% said late Wednesday it is raising the margin requirements for trade in a wide range of gold products, effective Thursday. The speculative margin requirement for a new position in Comex 100 gold futures will rise to $7,425 from $6,075, or to $5,500 from $4,500 for existing "current maintenance" margins. However, benchmark gold futures extended their rise in the wake of the announcement. Comex gold for December delivery GC1Z +1.28% rose to $1,807 an ounce from its $1,784 New York settlement level Wednesday, ahead of the CME announcement.

JohnG's picture

Tis' nothing but a gnat.