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2011 New Home Sales Fall To Record Low, Median New Home Price At Lowest Since October 2010

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Looks like the earlier analysis that the US is slowly morphing into a second Japan just got even more confirmation. According to the Census Bureau (not NAR data, which we will hence ignore completely due to its consistent bias, error and overall worthlessness) December New Home Sales declined from 321K to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 307K in December, on expectations of a rise to 321K from last month's revised 315K. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis the US sold a whopping 21K homes, the lowest since January 2011, and on par with the lowest on record. What is more troubling is that according to Bloomberg, the 2011 number of 302K sales is the lowest on record. Of these 21K, 5K were not even started. So much for that housing recovery. And also confirming that there is not even a glimmer of hope for the US housing market is that the Median Price for new homes just dropped from $215,700 to $210,300, which is the lowest median price since October 2010. The chart below of pricing trends indicates all that is needed to know which way the housing market is going.

And the same since 1963:

 

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Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:33 | 2099582 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Japan had what... 10y+ of home sales/prices going down? America is what, barely 6 years in? Lots of room left.

In other news, will ZH cover this?

Obama Is on the Brink of a Settlement With the Big Banks—and Progressives Are Furious

http://www.thenation.com/blog/165806/obama-brink-settlement-big-banks-an...

For months, a massive federal settlement with big Wall Street banks over their role in the mortgage crisis has been in the offing. The rumored details have always given progressives heartburn: civil immunity, no investigations, inadequate help for homeowners and a small penalty for the banks.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:37 | 2099601 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

20 years an counting.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:48 | 2099637 trav7777
trav7777's picture

come to papa, bitchez

house prices' rise can only be supported by ponzi debt growth leading to rising incomes.  We don't have that in the USA

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:55 | 2099660 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

CNBS would disagree with you, as would the idiot sheeple that watched Obuma's SOTU and actually believed anything that came out of the Comrade's mouth.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:58 | 2099681 trav7777
trav7777's picture

even black people didn't watch.  Not that they really tune into news anyway.

I mean, who even watches network TV anymore?  Cable shows like Pawn and Gold are beating big 4 network offerings both in timeslot and for the evening.  Network is so cliche and formula that it's getting killed.

If Gold Rush or Pawn Stars were on network, you know there would be one black person in each group.  And at least one chick.  One thing I marvel at besides the lack of diversity in banking or media is the lack of diversity in people actually working doing something.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:03 | 2099710 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

do you get withdrawals if you go three comments without insulting blacks?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:18 | 2099772 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Only if he can't insult silver investors first.

 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:19 | 2099774 lincolnsteffens
lincolnsteffens's picture

He must be on heavy meds. He left out the Joos this time.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:28 | 2099806 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

My son just graduated university....and he has few job opportunites....... of he were black and had same GPA and resume and ATTITUDE he could name his employer.  Most blacks don't try too hard and anything but sports (and even there they are bluffers if they lack the skills).

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:31 | 2099819 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

Here's hoping your son's language skills are better than yours.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:37 | 2099842 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

I didn't proofread......so your only complaint is my grammar ....I guess you agree with the message then.  Internet pussies attack grammar and typos when they can't attack the the actual post.  (I thought ZH weeded out internet pussies).

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:38 | 2099846 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I don't agree with afffirmative action, but considering blacks have a higher unemployment rate than whites, I really don't think they are getting all of the jobs like you sumise.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:44 | 2099865 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

I agree Lennon....but everytime I meet a qualified black i do a double take.  Blacks have the ability .... its their culture and upbringing holding them back. 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:54 | 2099901 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

I do agree with your right to speak your mind here.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:55 | 2099903 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

And I agree, but I can say there are segments of white culture that is the same.  Poor whites are also not qualified many times due to their culture. 

And I think it is fair to point out how the government went after blacks when they began to build a solid framework for their culture.  The Black Panthers were highly militant, and many of them were likely racist against whites, but they were bringing strength to their culture by educating themselves, and working together.  It was the most dangerous anti-establishment movement ever, perhaps, because it was not front run by the CIA like the Women's movement.  The government had no control over the Panthers and this scared the system.  So they went in and murdered the leaders.  And black culture fell apart.

Once again, I do not know enough about the Panthers to say if I think the individuals in the movement were good people, but I do know that the movement was anti-establishment like none other except the American Revolution, and I respect a movement like that tremendously.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 13:05 | 2099926 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

I totally agree.  The Black Panthers had my total respect.  But then the media and government came in and tried to make it all better for the blacks....and that set their mindset back.   Digging in and having a goal (like the Black Panthers) is what life is all about..........hoping aimlessly that government is going to 'bail you out' is what makes people soft.  So by targeting blacks with extra backstops, we are actually doing them a huge disservice.

Gee,  I just described wall street.  Backstopping them just makes them weaker.  In the long run...wall street will fail, because only the fittest survive.  

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 13:26 | 2100025 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

In repsonse to myself......because wall street is tied  directly to politicos (if not same set of peoples) the backstopping will not stop until they commit financial suicide or create war.  Racially some groups get soft by extra backstopping, but with wall streeters i fear its an all or nothing game.  If the wall streeters aren't kept hole, they will have the politicos destroy the game.  Thats taking this game to a whole new level.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 13:31 | 2100051 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

idea for making money

wb7 might want to take a shot at this......  the game of LIFE-Wall street /political correctness edition.   has parker brothers patent expired on that game?

wb7 --- what do you think?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:33 | 2100565 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

once again, just because you want to use Aaron Russo & Rush Limbaugh as reference points doesn't make their narratives truth,

front run by the CIA like the Women's movement.

if you want to make arguments, argue specifics - the CIA & Rockefeller money may have been behind Gloria Steinem and Ms. magazine - but the "women's movement" predates both the CIA AND Steinem, globally, and is NOT US-centric.

you guys who continually repeat this meme make your understanding of history & politics look very scripted and shallow, just saying.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_Movement     EZ Wiki-lite version

angry menz site with your "news" article:

http://www.newmenstime.com/index170.html 

and don't forget, when fighting women

Some claim that there must be an ethical analysis to full-force kicking the breasts, ovaries and
vulva/clitoris. The ethical standard can be reduced as such: if one intends to harm your body in
any way, it is ETHICAL to yourself to defend your , even if that defense means delivering intense pain or injury upon another body.

http://www.newmenstime.com/index1048.html

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 13:53 | 2100167 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Lol...dude, you do a doubletake precisely because of how rare it is.

Culture comes from within people.  Stupid is as stupid does.

Keep dreaming about how everyone is equal...it's total bullshit but it makes for a nice fairy tale.  Competencies are not evenly distributed within races or between them.

Genetics make it a foregone conclusion that some random lottery hit beautiful child CAN come from ugly ass parents.  A genius CAN come from two morons.  It's just not very *likely*.

It is much MORE likely that a smart set of parents will have smart kids.  Dumb cretinous parents will tend to have children like them.  Notice:  TEND.  It is not an absolute, just statistically high odds.

It is far more LIKELY to encounter an asian with an IQ over 100 than a black.  Blacks at 100 are 1 sigma to the right of mean, making them 84th percentile within their group (but only average in the larger population).  It's estimated that to do well in college, an IQ around say 115 is needed, maybe 120.  For a black that places them at the 97th percentile, but for a white, only 84th.  It's just going to be a LOT more frequent to encounter the latter than the former as a function of basic statistics.

You should not expect people with an average IQ of 85 to have a culture of learning, art, technology, civilization, classical music and all of that shit that is the province of the intelligent.  People with those types of attributes have lowbrow cultures, featuring lots of base urges and impulse gratification.  Given the high hereditability of IQ, you should not expect to see a lot of kids come out of that group who are materially different.  SURE, a few will be, but they will be exception cases, a few percent here and there.  Even the 97th percentile black is just an average college student when compared to far more common east asians and whites at that score.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 13:56 | 2100182 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

Thanks trav......i was drinking the juice a bit and trying to sympathize with the masses.  Good post.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:03 | 2100215 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

trav,

horse racing proves your post

genetics is a HUGE factor......but if government got involved in horse racing they would require 50% of the horses that race come from glue factory ......and after they interbred for generations, the whole bloodline would be inferior

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:35 | 2100352 trav7777
trav7777's picture

there are powerful groups who believe in maintaining their own clan identity and who daily practice ethnic nepotism (aka discriminatory racism) but who found and fund organizations to effectively do this, encourage the dilution of others' bloodlines, promoting reproduction with low quality DNA.

You can tick down through significant positions in media, "civil rights," Congress, banking...they all push for this.

If you think I'm BSing, review what Treasury Secretary Bob Rubin said regarding his initial meeting with the new Defense Secretary Cohen.  They had never met before.  You might also review the curious intersections between marxism and global communism movements and organizations like the NAACP. 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:23 | 2099790 flattrader
flattrader's picture

That's a given...a constant.

What we need to figure out is which of his little friends (multiple personalities) came out to play today:  trav the attorney, trav the nuclear scientist/engineer, trav the IT expert?

Three and counting...unless I've missed one or more.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:31 | 2099823 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

Blacks are FINALLY making real strides.  There are actually a few good NFL black quarterbacks.

A quarterback is a true test of racial superiority. 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:40 | 2099854 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

WTF....

Cunningham was playing in the '80s, and you say finally?  It's 2012, there are many good black QBs.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:49 | 2099886 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

Lennon , there are 30 teams with 50% blacks on their rosters.  And still 80-90% white quarterbacks.  Randall Cunningham was a pioneer.  Lennon. you aren't too smart, are you?  Or maybe you don't follow football.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 13:24 | 2100019 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Uh...you want to talk football?  Been a die hard niners fan since '87, and I follow the game, college and pro.  Sport is my vice.  I would have played the game more than one year in HS but I was built for baseball and basketball, and the football team sucked anyway. 

The whole blak QB thing is a little silly.  Who are the best QBs of the past decade?  Farve, Brady, Peyton, Rodgers...Vick, McNabb....who cares if a team has an average QB (which is most of them).  Right now the cream of the crop is split between black and white.  If Jamarcus could sleep he would have likely been making a push to the top like Big Ben.

I mean, you want a law of averages but these guys are Palmer, Romo, etc.  They are talented but won as much as Garrard.  Sure, the majority is white, but focus on the cream and it is close to being split.

And while we are at it, what about Defensive Captains?  Being the leader of the defense takes as much knowledge about the game as the QB, and I am sure that is a nice split black and white when it comes to talent on the field.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 13:45 | 2100095 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

My little league field was the forty niners headquarters in Redwood City, CA on Nevada Steet. My brother was their ballboy (although he was too young to go to games).  He got $1/day for shagging footballs and handing out towels. My dad played in the NBA(rochester royals) for 7-8 years (Calhoun) and out of us 5 brothers ...4 of us played some college sports....my oldest and shortest brother playing one year on scholarship at UCLA with Wooden, before getting cut.  Luckily for my dad there were limited black players in NBA in 1948 so he benefited from discrimination by being a good enough white guy to be a starter....otherwise he would have battled for a bench spot.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 13:55 | 2100180 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I was born in the Bay.  Went to hundreds of A's games growing up, and a few Niners games.  I pitched until HS when I switched to LF.  I had to learn to hit then because I never developed any pitch besides a changeup. 

My Uncle was on the AZ basketball National Championship team in the '70s.  And another Uncle played minor league for the Royals for a few years.  Both had injuries before they could make it into the big leagues.

I love the games, but I do pay less attention now that I have become disgusted with how much everyone still cares about it, considering the bigger issues.  I watch for sport, but I am no longer emotionally involved.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:30 | 2100553 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Guess you guys don't remember Warren Moon, I saw him play in the Rose Bowl in the 70's.

 

Fri, 01/27/2012 - 07:55 | 2101978 bdub1486
bdub1486's picture

Thank goodness your dad benefitted from discrimination, sounds familiar, but I'm sure he didn't complain

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 13:54 | 2100145 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

yes.....racially equality is fast closing in.............keep the government/media focused on backstopping wall street and let nature take its course and achieve the equality.

we have a lot of pretty sad whites these days..............newt gingrich?  alan greenspan? ------ maybe whites are becoming inferior

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:00 | 2100199 trav7777
trav7777's picture

the cream of the crop is split between B&W at QB??!

No.  The cream is white.

Who is crying for the hispanic and asian QBs?

There is no split...stop dreaming.  Blacks TEND to be faster.  The top 100 times in the 100m are all black.  Period.  Higher proportion of fast twitch muscles.  Plyometric leap force curves can spot a black person and a white person by the shape of the impulse.

YES, there are exceptional whites like Welker and Jordy and others who can achieve at this level.  They are just RARE, like blacks who can compete with asians in math.  Whites tend to swim and throw better.  There are real physiological differences between the races that lead to these discrepancies in average abilities and the distribution of exceptional ones.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:20 | 2100278 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

jeff garcia (49ers)  hispanic ?

asian qb ---- lmfao 

 

 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:55 | 2100429 Jena
Jena's picture

Add Jason Sehorn to the exceptional list, while you're at it.

Fri, 01/27/2012 - 08:10 | 2101997 bdub1486
bdub1486's picture

A starting black quarterback didn't appear until the 70's, you don't think the lingering effects of discrimination has something to do with the number of quarterbacks today?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:21 | 2100881 Dasa Slooofoot
Dasa Slooofoot's picture

Putting Vick and Mcnabb in that company shows you don't know shit about football. 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 13:20 | 2099999 fuu
fuu's picture

Warren Moon, Doug Williams, Culpepper, etc.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:51 | 2099895 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

i likes that a lot.  that's lots of fun.  what a shame, but that's what we've got.  and - if you make millions and spend it on letting your friends kill dogs brutally - and do time - you can be a quarterback too.

and this is what our children get to look up to.

 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 13:08 | 2099954 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

Vick is a better quaterback since he went to prison.  Probably because he realized life is mental as well as physical. And I'll bet he studies his playbook now and watches more film.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 13:41 | 2100108 trav7777
trav7777's picture

he sucked this year, wtf are you talkin about?

black fkin QBs lol...the great black hope

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:08 | 2100233 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

i was trying to drink the kool-aid

the black qb's tend to use their running/scrambling skills to offset the superiority of white qb's making the better passing decisions

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:01 | 2100454 trav7777
trav7777's picture

there are measurable differences in the average speed of thought between these two races.  Also, whites tend to throw better due to skeletal geometry and upper body muscle proportion.

I am just CELEBRATING the diversity by pointing these things out.  If we're all the same, and race is just a "social construct," then there is no diversity.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 13:34 | 2100067 I Got Worms
I Got Worms's picture

Warran Moon says "Hi".

Although he did smack his old lady around a bit. Maybe he had already told her once?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:23 | 2099791 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

Its not the blacks he hates......its that the government and media has chosen that race to get special treatment.  I wish I were born black....i'd have an easier career path and get a lot more pussy.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:28 | 2099812 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

if you really look at demographics and the race representation in the media, it's skewed in favor of some groups.  was that politically correct enough for you?  it amazes me how 'in your face' the tv is and who is 'in your face'.  that said - it's probably better because the group as a whole thinks they have some chance at '15 minutes' and therefore less like to burn their own homes down ala the 70's - 80's.  but i wouldn't hold out that chance for much longer.

 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 15:04 | 2100464 trav7777
trav7777's picture

who runs the media and who founded, funded, and ran the race advocacy groups like SPLC and NAACP?  They hold the same opinions on things.

Who invented the WORD "racism"?  Like I said, there are some connections here that you have to willfully ignore not to see.

Fri, 01/27/2012 - 08:32 | 2102022 bdub1486
bdub1486's picture

Where is it proven that minorities have an easier career path?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:10 | 2099739 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

Yeah networks and MSM in general is a dying industry...Which is precisely why TPTB are so hell bent on destroying alternative media via bills like SOPA, PIPA, and ACTA.

They need to have as much control as possible.  Difficult to control the masses without propaganda.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:21 | 2099783 duo
duo's picture

but old people still watch network news.  That's where they get told what drug (laden with side effects and no proven benefits) to get Medicare to buy for them.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:40 | 2099850 economics1996
economics1996's picture

They love that free motorized wheelchair.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:47 | 2099861 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Old people are what is wrong with this nation because they think they deserve their fiat pensions.  Well them and Boomers because Boomers feel they deserve retirement.  And gen Xers because they deserve jobs.  And the new gen because they deserve to play video games all day....shit, everyone is at fault, huh?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:39 | 2100371 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

As a Boomer, I feel compelled to point out that.....shit, spilled my pills on the floor.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:59 | 2099686 economics1996
economics1996's picture

4 million yet to be forclosed on and another 2 million in the wings.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:03 | 2099708 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

5 year TIPS is > -1% and NOW 10 year TIPS has negative yield.

I rest my case.

 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:09 | 2099733 ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

So you mean 5 year TIPS is < -1%? Or is it > -1% and < 0%?

Just trying to clarify

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:16 | 2099763 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

5 year yield had gone from minus 1/2 % + the government reported rate of inflation to minus 1% + reported core inflation.

So buying a 5 year TIPS you LOSE 1% + any amount the core rate of inflation is understated.  Treasuries all have REAL negative yields because FDIC limits are 250K and where else can microsoft (for example) park its cash with backing of the USA government, because there is NO WAY they would invest that cash BEFORE the pending collapse of the ponzi.

 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:28 | 2099799 SRSrocco
SRSrocco's picture

UNFORTUNATELY....THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING OF MORE BAD NEWS TO COME IN THE HOUSING MARKET

I hate to be so darn pessimistic, but things don't look good for suburbia.  For those who think that the NEW WORLD ORDER has a grand conspiracy to destroy the markets and buy everything for pennies on the dollar... need not worry.

The Peaking of global oil supply, the Falling EROI and the Loss from the Land Export Model will destory globalization which is the fuel that allows the NEW WORLD ORDER to survive.  Without cheap and available energy, globalization dries up and blows away-- with it the notion of the NEW WORLD ORDER.

I listen to interviews of high ranking folks in the financial industry who are bragging that their company is buying huge lots of real estate from say Florida or etc at much reduced rates.  All I can say is...STUPID IS.. STUPID DOES.  All that real estate that they are buying becomes increasingly worthless as the energy situation worsens.  This is the biggest frustration I have when I watch these clowns on TV.

Again, I don't mean to be so damn negative, but I have to call it like I see it.  I just wish more people would see it as it is so we can make some sort of transition to more local economies when we have the time before it is too late.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:37 | 2099843 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Of course the 'New World Order' will fail, it's a poorly thought out James Bond villain plan at best....however that does not mean they wont kill billions of people attempting it.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:46 | 2099874 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

No change in the status quo will occur voluntarily - I think that's pretty clear at this point. I think you're right, but I think this situation might have generations to play out. The "Blessed American Way of Life" will continue for a smaller slice of the population; right now I think the "middle class" is about the top 20% to 25% (most in America like to think they are middle class). The bottom dwellers will continually lose ground, but the facade of normallcy will be maintained. Those in the bottom will always be led to believe that if they just become competitive, their God given right to consumption and material wealth will be realized.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:45 | 2099870 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The shadow inventory is upwards of 10-15 million.  The housing market is worse than ever before.  Yet people still think their equity is on average $210k.  People haven't got a clue what is coming....like Indians on the shore....

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 13:52 | 2100162 Jena
Jena's picture

 

Agreed.  We're in an early inning.

 

Michael Olenick: 9.8 Million Shadow Inventory Says Housing Market is a Long Way From the Bottom

“Shadow inventory,” the number of homes that are either in foreclosure or are likely to end up in foreclosure, creates substantial but hidden pressure on housing prices and potential losses to banks and investors. This is a critical figure for policymakers and financial services industry executives, since if the number is manageable, that means waiting for the market to digest the overhang might not be such a terrible option. But if shadow inventory is large, housing prices have a good bit further to go before they hit bottom, which has dire consequences for communities, homeowners, and the broader economy."

 

http://bit.ly/yGMKaL 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:35 | 2100912 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture

9.8 milliom shadow inventory is what I read too.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:07 | 2100839 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

You weren't listneing -

AMERICA IS BACK!

 

Braack the Magic Kenyan @ SOTU rally.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:58 | 2099671 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

"There's never been a better time to build...," 
President of the United States of America
Barack Hussein Obama, II
2012 State of the Union address

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:00 | 2099690 trav7777
trav7777's picture

did that clown actually say that?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:25 | 2099707 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Of course he did.  It was on the Telepromptor.

"There's never been a better time to build..."

 

I believe the phrase is also the slogan-for-life of the National Association of Home Builders.

Single-family Construction Up Again

Single-family housing starts increased 4.4% in December to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 470,000, the best monthly number since May 2010 when the home buyer tax credit ended. Total housing starts dropped 4.1% due entirely to a realignment of multifamily starts from November’s unsustainable level of 235,000. Multifamily starts (buildings with two or more units) fell to 187,000 or down 20.4%. Multifamily construction exhibited a saw-toothed pattern for much of 2011 but still came in 55% better than 2010.

 

http://eyeonhousing.wordpress.com/2012/01/19/single-family-construction-up-again/

 

Just read for yourself...everything is coming up roses!

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:48 | 2099884 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

"That's a perty house."

-Ben Bernanke

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:01 | 2100208 trav7777
trav7777's picture

a lot of these properties have decent value as meth house farms.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:21 | 2099779 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

Of course, and you need new houses somewhere where dogs barking with their asses, where you have to spend few hundreds for gas to get to 8$ job and pay hundreds in mortgage and utilities and the rest you charge on your CC because better times are coming.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:01 | 2099701 economics1996
economics1996's picture

Affirmative action thinking at work for America.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:32 | 2099829 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

Barack Hussein Obama is president of ' UNITED STATES OF AMERICA" he is not the president of the "United States of America " upper case is the corperation lower case is the real America . Big difference, please .

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:11 | 2099742 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

and the nekkei peaked at 39K ........so much for the parallel (for now)

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:55 | 2099659 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So now ObaMao is also the Chief Judge and Top Cop of the country too? 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:18 | 2099771 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Now i can see why the Bernank is keeping interest rates at zero thru 2014 and probably even longer.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:09 | 2100845 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

without criminal intent - nice!

so the beat gets quiet, muffled in bravado,... hooray!

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:32 | 2099583 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

All that government stimulus sure did wonders.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:33 | 2099584 Irish66
Irish66's picture

Cardboard boxes, bullish for paper mills

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:32 | 2099586 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

 

 

All that matters is CNBS mentioning the record Dow number every 3 minutes.  Self fulfilling BS at this point.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:52 | 2099652 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Hell yea! We've almost got the stocks back to all-time bubble top record highs again from the housing rush euphoria days....nevermind the housing situation sucks I guess now we're onto the 'free money' bubble craze! As long as stocks are green, thats all that matters.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:58 | 2099680 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Housing rush euphoria still alive and well...at NAR, and on shares of Home Depot.  Just check that stupid chart!  The criminal syndicate known as Wall Street is surely going to tee off on that one.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:07 | 2099724 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

NAR is such a joke, realtors pay dues to be a 'NAR realtor' and every NAR ad for many years is just the same 'NOW is the best time EVER to buy a home! Contact a local NAR realtor today!'

'Pending sales' are counted even if a broker gets a wrong number call...all BS.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:34 | 2099593 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

But but but.....all the pundits are pumping homebuilder stocks; and they are never wrong; right?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:00 | 2099693 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Suckers rally, watch for entry to fade it.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:35 | 2099596 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Looks like the condo my buddy thinks is a really good investment opportunity still has much further to go before "on sale" is really meaningful.

Of course he won't read or watch an ounce of data I gave him.

Hope that new liability makes you feel good ...moron.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:43 | 2099620 fuu
fuu's picture

My brother is looking to buy a town house because "Prices can't keep falling forever."

People gotta get burned to learn.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:48 | 2099638 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

I say use the money you'd spend on a mortgage, homeowners insurance, etc. and buy guns, ammo, and bullion. 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 13:22 | 2100009 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

If you are not paying a mortgage, you are paying someone rent. 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:12 | 2100259 viahj
viahj's picture

if you are paying a mortgage, you are also paying rent.

just try not to pay the taxes and see how long you can hold onto that house.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:49 | 2099644 trav7777
trav7777's picture

prices can definitely stop falling and flatline for long periods of time.  Perhaps you should refer him to the decade BEFORE the housing bubble!

Rents certainly keep rising in apartment buildings.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:53 | 2099654 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

True.  It's a trade off.  Owning a mortgage with a fixed rate means your "rent" is essentially frozen.  Meanwhile rent in an apartment will continue to rise.  Trade off is with a mortgage you also have property taxes which, just like apartment rent, can be raised whenever.  Not to mention homeowners insurance, having to pay for all utilities, etc. 

There's no such thing as owning your house in this country. 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:11 | 2099746 fuu
fuu's picture

Repairs will nickle and dime you to death in a house.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:39 | 2100927 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture

"nickle and dime" my foot! I had a simple reapir done and it cost $2,865.00!

Skilled electricians, air-conditioning people, carpernters, etc charge alot more now for thier services to reflect their own labor and material cost increases. I can't blame them but owning a house now is pretty expensive.

Forget that nickle and dime stuff.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:26 | 2099801 duo
duo's picture

Dallas had a nice bubble in the '80s.  The house I live in still isn't worth what it sold for in 1984.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 13:46 | 2100131 I Got Worms
I Got Worms's picture

My lovable-but-still-a-sheeple wife is non-stop nagging about buying a new house (her best friend is a realtor - go figure). To quote Positive K, "I ain't tryin to hear that, see." Best business decision I've made in my young life was to sell our house for a nice profit in 2010 and rent (thanks 100% to the analysis on this site). Hmmm, I just posted about Warren Moon above, and it's starting to give me some ideas about how to convince the wife to zip it about a new house....

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 13:48 | 2100142 I Got Worms
I Got Worms's picture

Matter of fact, had damn near a monsoon in Austin 2 nights ago, and my new rent home roof starting to leak. Saw it and went right back to bed with a smile, knowing that I wasn't paying a single dime to fix that shit.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:10 | 2100681 fuu
fuu's picture

I would much rather call the landlord and tell him the roof leaks than to call roofers getting qoutes.

Austin is a pretty party town, I always have a good time there.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:50 | 2099631 The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

Boy that sounds familiar!  I have family members who just plugged their ears with their index fingers and sang La La La!!!!  They rent now of course...

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:59 | 2099684 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I like to refer to history when challenged about how much further it could go. Take put a dollar bill and ask, what is this worth. "a dollar.". I didn't ask what it was... I asked what it's worth.

It's a piece of paper (rip dramatically) and you want to base hundreds of thousands on the hope everyone else like you will never figure it out either.

I will buy your house is less than 5 years for a fraction of the cost and in silver which will be an additional discount as silver trades at $1000.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:07 | 2099722 The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

I was in the Twin Cities (Minneapolis/St Paul) for a few weeks over the summer...I couldn't believe all the 'for sale signs'...Like 1 out of 10...Even less in some areas...

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:37 | 2099740 fuu
fuu's picture

Nothing ever seems to move. Same signs this year as last year in my neighborhood just west of the cities.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:30 | 2099815 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Im just outside min/stpaul. That's nothing. Go up to Brainerd lakes area. The second house market is in shambles. I have a sailboat in Door County (most beautiful place in the summer) and the signs are everywhere.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:37 | 2099844 fuu
fuu's picture

Land up near BWCA is pretty cheap now.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:45 | 2099872 The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

Northern Minnesota is awesome in the summer...The family I know in the Twin Cities had to sell some property up there as well...

 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 19:08 | 2101140 Jena
Jena's picture

Dial up any zip code in zillow.com.  A lot of the country is for sale.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:36 | 2099840 pods
pods's picture

Do you actually think that there will be any kind of market if silver is $1k per ounce?

More like The Road.

pods

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 13:52 | 2100161 I Got Worms
I Got Worms's picture

Silver or handjobs-under-a-bridge for a warm square meal.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:26 | 2100309 Spigot
Spigot's picture

Dayton, OH 19% of houses unoccupied...

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:54 | 2099655 Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

Hell, my wife inherited a condo in a nice area of Palm Springs. I had it fixed up nice and I can't give it away...Reduced the price once and it looks like I will have to do it again. Shit, only 1 person has walked through it in the last 60 days.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 13:37 | 2100082 Jena
Jena's picture

The Riverside/San Bernadino region (including Palm Springs) is generally listed in the top five worst areas for foreclosure.  The desert used to be somewhat recession-proof but not this time.  The region's economy relies heavily on real estate sales and tourism.  

Good luck.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:01 | 2099697 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

 

 

Yeah, I keep telling people who say, "mortgage interest rates CAN'T go any lower", that it's NOT about "rates"...it's about people's ability to "buy".  You can make interest rates 0% and it won't change much, if anything with demand.  Home values (prices) need to drop another 30%+...then come see me.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 13:16 | 2099984 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

If the housing industry is in this bad of shape with mortgage rates at historic lows, what do you think will happen to prices when rates go up a few notches? The bottom is not even in view yet.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 13:31 | 2100053 The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

That's the scary part!...Clearly the biggest bubble in history is the bond-credit bubble...

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 13:34 | 2100068 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

I think prices nationwide generally are bottoming or have bottomed, I do not see a lot of downside here. Having said that the rally in homebuilder stocks is overdone and I am looking to fade it.  Hard to look at the whole country as one though IMO, very regional.

In FL, I think it is a reasonably good time to buy, I bought one in September.  The good thing for a buyer now is you can take your time and find exactly what you like and your negotiating position is strong. Sure there is some risk of maybe a 10% correction or so but the house costs here are less than the price of materials.  It won't stay that way forever.  

Where is SE?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:38 | 2099603 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

Bullish for me getting a free house in about 5 years!  And will Emperor Obama pay my homeowner's insurance too?

 

Never mind, we'll probably be in FEMA camps by then.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:49 | 2099889 Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

Nothing free about a house..taxes, repairs, insurance, etc...

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:38 | 2099606 Truffle_Shuffle
Truffle_Shuffle's picture

Strategic default.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:39 | 2099608 benjamin_1114
benjamin_1114's picture

No wonder builders have been going gangbusters.  I would imagine the lower prices and higher cost of matierials (f*ck Bernanke and his rigged inflation rate, a box of nails is 30% higher then 2 years ago) has done wonders for margins.  The hangover has to be coming soon for these stocks.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:16 | 2099766 youngman
youngman's picture

That is true..material prices have not dropped at all....wierd....

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:39 | 2099611 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

it's almost as if the government has intervened too much

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:49 | 2099643 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Too much fascist central planning? Blasphemy!

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:40 | 2099614 Roy T
Roy T's picture

Surprise !!

This is attached article is why the homebuilders run up is a fraud.  This plumber in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn "owns" 30 properties, some with 3 mortgages.  I have followed this for years, he hasn't paid his mortgages since 2008 and he still technically "owns" them.  He "bought" practically every high end single family house in the mid 2000's in this neighborhood

From the Daily News

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/controversial-bay-ridge-developer-mousa-...

 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:07 | 2099667 Yes We Can. But...
Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

I know from my work that residential real estate speculators like this guy are getting wiped out all over the country.  And they should get wiped out - they used easy money to bet big on continued appreciation, and they bet wrong.  His lenders are no doubt taking a big hit too, as they should.  When the value of the collateral properties hits rock bottom, the smart money moves in.  To cite one example, renovated one hundred year old rowhouses in Baltimore that spiked to $100k are going for as little as $10k.  Rough neighborhoods, your gotta know what you're doing to make them work as rentals.

Mousa will be smarter and more cautious in the next cycle.....

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:09 | 2099734 trav7777
trav7777's picture

the black undertow will sweep those "opportunities" away as surely as the ocean wrecks castles of sand.

Buy properties like that hoping for future gentrification.  Those who did so in DC made out like kings.  Baltimore is a city with some geographical advantages but some serious demographic disadvantages.  One side there are cities like Pittsburgh, which weathered the storm of deindustrialization and "manufacturing job loss" that all the rust belt cities went through, but because they maintained a healthy majority of population that had innate capacity for civilization, PIT is now ranked near the top of most livable lists for years.  On the flipside are Detroilet, Columbus, Cleveland, etc.  Their population demographics took a darker turn and the outcome was inevitable as a result.

Detroit property is dead sunk cost.  Zero recovery.  Already there are scrap pirates who hit old plants and buildings and strip them.  Your wiring will disappear, along with all other salvageable material.  At the end of the day, you have title to a strip of land that may no longer be served by sewage, water, or even electricity (scrappers are stripping power lines too), and a liability for "taxes" based upon some corrupt city official's "assessment" (pays their fat salary).

Detroit is a study in demographics the same as Rhodesia was.  The city has banned street parking now because it cannot deal with the rampancy of car theft.  There are already areas that the cops have announced they cannot respond to calls to.  Large tracts of the city are reverting to nature.  The population simply lacks the capacity to sustain the civilization they inherited.  Politician after politician in Detroit goes to jail for corruption

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:16 | 2099762 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

the undertow is now our president, and will be again for 4 years, as nobody has a job or anything else (except william dudley i-units).  the undertow electorate certainly doesn't want the kardashian party to end anytime soon.

 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 13:17 | 2099987 Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

Get this shit guys.....the "new thing" around my area is to not pay shit for your house, specifically taxes, let your house go to auction due to tax debt, buy the house back yourself for literally pennies on the dollar and the taxes ard debts are wiped out. Because if there are liens no one would touch them, or if they need serious work, ditto.  Of course, more folks are starting to get in on the scam, and the local gov tax receipts are collapsing. Oh well, the big boys stole everything.....I guess the little guy "wants mines" too.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:42 | 2099618 Irish66
Irish66's picture

Boy, I just realized how far my new neighbors of less than a year are already under water

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:58 | 2099677 Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

yep...Looks like the realtors are going to have to break out the propaganda machine again and call another bottom.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 22:03 | 2101489 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

call a bottom to save a bottom

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:42 | 2099619 firstdivision
Thu, 01/26/2012 - 13:13 | 2099975 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Phenomenal!  To the moon!

Golden Cross in the next week or so

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:45 | 2099625 Never1
Never1's picture

Chart looks like a dead cat bounce.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:46 | 2099626 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

My wife keeps books for the largest real estate company in town and she says they haven't been selling shit. They have almost exhausted their lines of credit. The listings keep coming in but nobody is buying, and those that want to buy can't qualify for a loan.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:53 | 2099653 trav7777
trav7777's picture

The Fed doesn't care if it gets paid back but the banks still do.

The securitization machine is dead, completely.  They have to be able to hold that loan to maturity.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:56 | 2099665 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

What state or area?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:59 | 2099688 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Thanks Doc. I like info like this. Without GPS coordinates could you give a rough idea I your geographic area?

Thanks.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:05 | 2099714 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Indiana

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:01 | 2100209 I Got Worms
I Got Worms's picture

I am sitting, waiting until I can take one gold american eagle and exchange it for a fenced rural acre or 3 in Texas with septic and water well system in place. Anyone seeing deals like that in their locales?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 14:28 | 2100322 Spigot
Spigot's picture

90% of the mortgages are now FHA, and the less than or equal to $150k dwelling has maintained its pricing, everything above it is going to hell in a hand basket. Reason most are not selling is they can't due to virtual ban on short sales by the lenders.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:48 | 2099636 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

What? Its hard to believe with record high unemployment, bankruptcies, and foreclosures....the housing bubble isnt being re-inflated? Thats just crazy.

Hell we've almost got the stock bubble reinflated back to those historic bubble levels again, what could possibly go wrong? As long as stocks are green, its all good. 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:50 | 2099648 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

When oh when will the idiot sheeple voters realize that the DOW has absolutely nothing to do with the economy.  When will they understand that the artificially low interest rates aren't being kept to help them get a mortgage or refi but are instead in place to allow the US government to service the interest on its $15.3 (soon to be $16.2) trillion debt?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:55 | 2099662 trav7777
trav7777's picture

there are actually companies which are decently profitable in this climate and spit out dividends.  Even mutual funds loaded with them. 

PM and MO are still good stocks as are some of the large telecoms like VZ.  People in afghanistan smoke and use cellphones

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:00 | 2099689 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Thats fine, as Chief Dan George said 'If its so good, YOU drink it'!

Go buy all the 'good' paper stocks you want, I dont care.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:16 | 2099759 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Chief who?  Thought that was Lone Wattie...in Josie Wales

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:40 | 2099852 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well his real name is Chief Dan George.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:56 | 2099669 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

They will wake up when the world says no more to the dollar.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:10 | 2099735 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

cold ice water in the middle of a sexual fantasy dream

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 12:07 | 2099726 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

and there are more housing units of every type being built everywhere.  got to keep those builders in business.

when mortgage rates go to 2% - is that a 'buy' sign or desperation.  really.

 

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