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2011 New Home Sales Fall To Record Low, Median New Home Price At Lowest Since October 2010
Looks like the earlier analysis that the US is slowly morphing into a second Japan just got even more confirmation. According to the Census Bureau (not NAR data, which we will hence ignore completely due to its consistent bias, error and overall worthlessness) December New Home Sales declined from 321K to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 307K in December, on expectations of a rise to 321K from last month's revised 315K. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis the US sold a whopping 21K homes, the lowest since January 2011, and on par with the lowest on record. What is more troubling is that according to Bloomberg, the 2011 number of 302K sales is the lowest on record. Of these 21K, 5K were not even started. So much for that housing recovery. And also confirming that there is not even a glimmer of hope for the US housing market is that the Median Price for new homes just dropped from $215,700 to $210,300, which is the lowest median price since October 2010. The chart below of pricing trends indicates all that is needed to know which way the housing market is going.
And the same since 1963:
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No more NAR Data????
I LUV THIS PLACE!
NAR basically the real estate brokers union and advertising outlet....every NAR ad thru the years says 'NOW is the BEST TIME EVER to buy a new home! Contact your NAR realtor today!'
NAR extorts money from Realtors by forcing them to join NAR and pay considerable dues in order to gain access to MLS.
Of course! NAR is just a dues collecting union....and ANYONE believes their 'data'?
The charts above suppose a drop of roughly 15% from early 2011...Wow!...Is this consistent with what everybody is seeing?...Minus Manhatten lofts of course...East or west...
The only consistent buyers I have seen are newly hired Grad students from top schools.
If you want an accurate picture go to your state Real Estate Licensing commission and ask how many realtors did not renew their license in the past 12 months.
That bad huh!!!
The only reason any Real Estate Agents are in business is because so many have quit the business.
Another good indicator is the number of real estate schools that have closed or downsized.
That and the fact that they jumped on the realtor bandwagon, foregoing a degree... which now even minimum wage folks need a bachelors... good luck with the transition, especially when the cost of retraining/retooling hasn't really materially deleveraged.
NAR stats are a sham. If NAR wanted to issue accurate data they would report RECORDED COURTHOUSE DEEDS rather than PENDING SALES which are NOT sales but rather are purchase contracts which may never close - especially when banks have tight lending criteria. The cencus is on track. but if you want acurate dataits, use the county tax records.
And I wouldnt be surprised if NAR counts a wrong number call to a realtor as a 'pending sale'....all total BS.
that's OK. The banks no longer need the mortgage market. </snark>
Sure! Now theyve got the Bernank to just fill their bank vaults with ever more worthless dollars whenever they need it.
So basically we have traded jobs and forclosures for food stamps and ipads? "Do I have that right Bernanke?" Did I miss that question yesterday?>
The ownership society model has failed. The cost of living is always the same anyway. EVERYTHING YOU GOT!
The ownership model has not failed. If you have debt on something you don't own it. The bank does. Go back to Russia.
I was referring to Bush's "ownership society", when the idea that everyone should be able to take a mortgage out on a house was first pushed.
Alright. My apologies. It looked like you were referring to property rights.
You don't own the land or your house......you lease it. ie property tax.
Braack Obama @ SOTU 2012
Some phoenix stats
The big banks were taking too much heat for mortgage fraud so they started selling the paper instaed of selling the houses, which are sitting there deteriorating.
If you want to see how many bad loans they are holding check your tax records. Search with Bank Name as owner. Every property that is not a bank branch is a bad real estate loan. I promise you will be blown away by the massive number.
New home sales still stuck in the "Red Zone" of no/slow growth. Fox Business gets annoyed when I say that. But look at the "red zone" in the charts.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/01/26/new-home-sales-drop-2-2-initial-jobless-claims-miss-expectations/
Home sale miss and drop big, employment misses, yet nothing can make teflon equity indexes drop! We have actually left 'Full Retardville' and arrived in downtown Unicornfart.
The 1986 tax law was designed to push real investors out of real estate and into equities for the benefit of the Money Center Banks and Wall Street. The Savings and Loan crises and susequent banning of freely assumable loans iced the cake and consilidated the Money Center Banks ability to control and manipulate the housing market.
Prior to 1986 much of the commercial and rental property was owned by doctors, lawyers and other professionals. In the 1990's FNMA replaced them with less stable low income buyers and pushed the professionals into the stock market for the benfit of Wall Street.
If you want a bottom in the real estate market, you start by repealing the 1986 tax law and by making ALL real estate loans freely assumable thus taking the banks out of the equation.
Do yourecord housing demolition approvals in the US, based on the existing amount of derelict housing the net would be, negative?
But NAR, Cramer and JPM have called the bottom.
XHB up 30% in last 6 weeks.
Fundamentals don't matter in momo enviroment.
#btfd
Dimon said US banks have no exposure to Greece.
USA! USA!! USA!!!
He actually used the term Direct .......hmmmmm...how about indirect exposure...probably in the trillions...lol
+1
They are selling packages of bad loans thru Blackrock to high net worth investors who have no clue what they are buying or the actual value of the underlying assets. They need these investors to think that the bottom is in.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUkbdjetlY8
I have very little sympathy for any investor who in this day and age, does not do their own due diligence on the product they are being sold.
Some say Oceania is in decline. This is not permissible. Oceania is STRONG. It has never been stronger. The war with Eurasia is going well. Our markets are strong and the envy of the world, that is why they are up. It has nothing to do with the debasement of money. Gold and other commodities such as food going up is a good thing. It will cause the people of Eurasia to revolt while the people of Oceania all have jobs and are all well. Oceania has been creating hundreds of thousands of jobs each month. Ignore naysayers who say the B.L.S. makes up fictitious jobs every month. The people who are not counted have moved on to better things. Ignore the inflation that you can not keep up with. Measured properly inflation is overstated and not a cause for concern. Banking is the greatest service to mankind. Oceania banks are the pride of the world. Ignore people who say they first sold crappy stocks, then crappy mortgages, now crappy government debt, kept the profits and stuck you with the bill. The people of Oceania are strong and it is your duty to support the banks at all costs. Banks are Oceania, Oceania is strong, Oceania is the best place in the world.
I thought we have always been at war with Eastasia?
Everyone see the clip of the Australian protestors attacking their PM? Fucking awesome!
Kind of makes you wonder about the big jump in home builders last week or two...???? Hype it baby..hype it baby...
young couple coming out of college ( which less than 30% of our pop does) even at these housing prices needs a household income of at least 100k to have a chance. To repay 2 college debts, new mortgage, energy cost, one car payment, down payment for house, living cost, etc etc. How many people are getting good 50k jobs these days? Let alone two?
Kids dont have a chance, even college graduating ones. For those million kids that drop out of high school each year, god only knows what the fuck they do for a living.
They sell drugs and walk around looking for someone to kick the shit out of...A Clockwork Orange-The Wild Boys...Here we come!!!
you are correct. I know. I recruited them for a long time. They are broke-dick. But here may be an alternative:
Females: go into stripping
Males: fight club
Employment issues solved.
pussy-ass millennials can't fight LOL...they've been effiminated by over a decade of war on masculinity just in schools alone.
Wait a sec, I saw a commercial the other night for something called "jobcorp" that had a .gov website. It was geared towards young folks with no high school diploma. I guess they can become brownshirts? Recovery!
Off topic, but recently in Austin, we have these meatheads called "Downtown Rangers" just creeping around watching folks and "assisting" the fuzz. Here's their website - anyone got anything similar in their towns? http://www.downtownaustin.com/daa/rangers/
Looks like you'll have to pay off the "Downtown Rangers" too!!!
Where's Kramer?
Not long ago, they said it took more than a year to process a foreclosure.
The back logs wont be cleared anytime soon and they now say there is a housing recovery?
Single homes are replaced by multi family constructions and this doesnt count as progress and prosperity.
Recent article said 20% of housing sales are foreclosures which is quite a high. Bear in mind that defaulters who walk away from the homes are still saddled with debt and what the bank does to resell the foreclosed home doesnt give debt forgiveness to the defaulter.
10 more months to elections and it will take a lot of good news to keep the market pumped till then.
well if hopium runs out, I suspect they can always start another war.
americans are like babies sitting in our shit filled diaper, as long as the adults keep distracting us with shiny objects, and funny faces and noises, most americans will be content to sit in their shit filled pants.
We are only about halfway to the 2001 bubble starting point.. this is going to be a disaster. As we know bubbles tend to overshoot or can drift lower for decades like Japan.
I believe we are Japan.
UH... 2001 is not the starting point. Think more in terms of August 15th 1971
Its a long way to the bottom Enjoy the ride.
We aren't Japan. US Money supply has increased significantly compared with Japan.
Rents are coming in line with mortgages. Inventory is shrinking. Lots of people own their homes outright.
Fed is working to push down 30 year. It will free up even more money to go into housing.
New home sales are not the place to look for a recovery. Makes no sense. Existing home sales are the place to look.
My experience is that markets that go up fastest are the ones to go down fastest then start leading the next recovery. I am seeing significant improvement in neighborhoods in Phoenix metro area. Houses come on market sell about 2-4 months later. People are maintaining their houses and improving them. Sales prices are firming up with some appreciation.
If you think we are going to have deflation best of luck to you. You hang on tight to those dollars. Smart money realizes savers are being persecuted and it will continue. Where else are you going to store value in this world? Again hang on to those dollars and enjoy the slow decline in your net worth as the world reinflates around you.
Real Estate is illiquid and subject to the ability and willingness of banks to lend. Interest rates are at historic lows. Real estate will drop bigtime when the rates rise. Governments are searching for revenue. Real estate will drop as tax incentives are removed and as property taxes rise.
Commodities will outperform real estate and are liquid and transportable. The market is rewarding liquidity
When rates rise...hahaha why would they rise? The fed has unlimited ability to keep them low. Keep holding your breath and check out real estate prices early 80's they didnt tank.
Commodities are foreign languages to most people. Ever tried to talk someone into buying gold? I am all for gold as an asset but the fact is I cant experience it and i cant brag to my friends about it.
Illiquidity...STock in kodak is pretty liquid. Stock in facebook is liquid. A house like commodities that is a tangible asset that has income producing potential. Boomers are going to be clamoring for income. They can buy with cash. There is a ton of the worthless stuff everywhere in case you werent keeping track.
Michael Olenick: 9.8 Million Shadow Inventory Says Housing Market is a Long Way From the Bottomhttp://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/01/michael-olenick-10-million-shadow...
That's true, perhaps a "blowoff top", I am describing.
Did you serve on the Danville train? Love the band and that song is my all time favorite...
You realize it would take 300 years to replace the existing housing stock at this rate?
See Table 1-2 here: http://www.census.gov/housing/ahs/data/ahs2009.html
Homes are down in Boston; but rents are up. Yeah, this will end well.
http://www.boston.com/realestate/news/articles/2012/01/26/home_prices_may_still_be_down_but_boston_rents_hit_an_all_time_high_in_2011/?p1=News_links
This is a serious question: My lease is up where I'm at in 6 months. I'm tired of renting and waiting to buy and I'm ready to pull the trigger. I've found a few welll priced fixer uppers/foreclosures but I'm aware that prices might drop another 10-20%. Is now a good time to buy with interest rates + prices being so low, is it worth it to rent another year to wait, or?
Thanks.
If you will stay in the home for at least 7 to 10 years, and it is not in a terrible area with a declining neighborhood, go for it. Rents will keep going up.
Correct. But location, location, location. If you buy into a declining hood, I don't care what deal you think you got. You will be screwed---Penn State style. You have to do serious homework on your neighbors and their status. Lots of knife-catchers aorund here learned the hard way. I am in costal florida on vaca and homes/condos are 50-75% off their peak. And I am running into current owners wanting ANY offer to unload. Insurances, and maintenance, and often taxes are going one way, and it is killing them. And God help you if you get into an HOA with declining rate of particiaption. Your house will be worse than worthless. You won't be able to give it away, and you will owe. I have friends back home that bought in the last couple of years that thought they got deals or even steals (plus the tax credit). And they are all underwater now, and endlees repair bills and hours fixing up the places. My rent has gone up about 3% a year, but my maintenance costs are zero, and my time is my own on weekends. Buy smart, or else you will be like a turd going down the toilet.....tread carefully. This market (nor interest rates) ain't going anywhere soon.
HOA with declining rate of participation is something that everyone buying any property with an HOA should be concerned about, especially something with an undivded interest in real property. You don't really own it, but you're on the hook for it as you stated above. I've managed to educate and discourage at least a couple of people from buying townhomes/condos, or other HOA encumbered properties. I consider it a public service to do so.
I bought property last year, but it had an unusual combination of location, resources, income, and sustainability. Will the nominal price I could get for it decline? Probably. Could I find something else comparable for anywhere near what I paid for it even now? Doubt it. Am I ok with my decision? Yes.
At some point, all property becomes a hyperinflation hedge. That has to be balanced against future taxation, however. Always consider all potential scenarios for any property, and ask hard questions about each of them.
My advice is wait, especially if you've never bought/owned and are thus a newb. Keep searching. Then wait some more. Keep searching some more. Than wait even more, and keep searching until you find a 'no-brainer' great property that makes you feel greedy, feel like you need to get it before someone beats you to it. Then submit a low-ball offer so low that you don't get deal and walk. In other words, get all the way to the brink and then walk from at least one deal. Do NOT let a broker pressure you - ever. And spend a lot lot lot of time searching and studying what stuff has been selling for. And remember, location is absolutely critical. Best if you can buy in a neighborhood where investors - the pros - are tearing homes down and replacing with new homes. And don't focus only on structure and ignore the lot - lot matters - privacy, drainage, tree work, traffic, parking, room for expansion.... Keep supply/demand on your side - be sure that what you buy is of limited supply and likely to be in demand in the future (say, for example, a property in the only lake community in the area) - so that you can likely get out of the property without getting hurt.
Move patiently. There's no rush. Don't let the lease expiry force action - go month to month if needed. If you are not comfortable with some aspect of deal, don't be afraid to walk. It is a buyer's market, so be tough, brutal even and make yourself a phenomenal deal on the property and the loan.
If you have a secure job and plan on being there awhile absolutely. Your negotiating position is strong. None of that bidding war crap or settling for less than exactly what you want. Go for it, money has never been cheaper.
why are you asking people here?
You should do a cashflow analysis and expected outcome determination and make the decision on that. Throw in some subjective concerns like "want" to have my own home, etc.
having your own yard / land to grow food on is a plus...but I don't think real estate is anywhere near the bottom.
Bad idea to buy a house when you don't have job security and are not confident you can find another job without a big pay cut or longer commute. The transaction costs kill any savings over rent if you have to move every couple years. So would the increased commuting costs if you had to take a job farther away.
Eventually, the madness does stop. There are good reasons why there are 13.5 million unsold, existing homes. Those reasons aren't going away. The housing market has so many negative issues that it really isn't recognizable as a market, without government intervention. That takes it back to the root of the problem. Government "fixes" things, but only to the extent that the taxpayers can pay for it. That isn't an economy. It's a nameless, faceless bureaucracy. Corruption and waste finishes off everything it touches. If bureaucracy had iit's way, everything would be subsidized housing.
http://thedailyclimb.wordpress.com/
I bought a bigger one in a much more upscale and well maintained subdivsion and move in two months. Present house not sold yet but do not care because the neighborhood is starting to look dumpy and we have had lookers and our house is immaculate condition which matters in a shit market. I will have a 15 note at 3% held by Father in Law and Mother in Law and not the banks. I was told that if there is a USD devaluation that any bank loan can increase the amount owed to compensate for this-is this true?
Probably not. Ask yourself this. The dollar loses value daily... does your bank rewrite the contract every day the dollar devalues? Alternatively, ask yourself this, if deflation hits and the dollar significantly appreciates, is your bank going to let you use less dollars to repay the loan? Needless to say, if the bank can eat its cake and have it too, I'd say there is a strong likelihood the contract will get thrown out for lack of mutuality, but arguments are obviously jurisdiction specific.
Presume that there is no revaluation of contracts... they're already written... now extrapolate what banks want, but mitigate that with their present financial conditions (as well as that of their debtors). That is your answer for what will happen moving forward for the foreseeable future.
Good on you and good on your parents. I'm trying to talk mine into the same sort of investment. Pay them back!!! Not sure about the devaluation thing, tho anyone going for anything variable rate now is cuckoo imo.
I taking my house and getting the hell out of here:
http://www.tumbleweedhouses.com/see-a-tiny-house/see-peppers-house/?awt_...
The Tumbleweed guy is coming to my town for a 2 day seminar in March. Seriously considering coughing up the $300 to go watch. Love those little houses. Need to find the perfect piece of dirt to park it on first though....
Charging $45,000 for a shed on a trailer...now that's funny!
Yeah, that is fucking insane. But I think if you are fairly handy and have access to the right tools. someone should be able to slap one of those things together fairly cheap. Would be a hell of a hobby project.
think you can build one for a third of the price easy. People doing interesting things with shipping cargoes.
The simple fact is that the millisecond rates go up even marginally, the housing sector takes an immediate 20% dive which is why we will never leave ZIRP short of a total treasury collapse and then it won't matter anyway. ZIRP and stangnant home values for at least the next 10 years, probably more. I laugh at people when they say the RE market will come back in a few years. I just say OK sure if you say so and walk away from them. That includes my own mother who's been saying that shit for 3+ years now. She went through it in the 90's and thinks this time is no different. This time is wayy different.
ah, those who trusted the guv in their "American Dream" deserve this nightmare. No one owns their house, either the bank does or the guv, you pay off your house in 30 years and still have to pay property taxes, perhaps some states discontinue property taxes for the elderly, i don't know